On Sunday, Bogdan Bogdanovic signed a 4-year $72 million offer sheet with the Atlanta Hawks. As he is a restricted free agent, the Kings have 48 hours to match the offer. We'll know by late tomorrow morning which way the Kings will go. The question today is which way do you think they should go.
One important detail of the offer is a 15% trade kicker. Our own Tim Maxwell provided a good explanation of that kicker:
Trade kickers:
1. The 15% is only applied to guaranteed deals, so the last season isn’t counted for Bogi
2. That makes the max trade kicker about $8.1M
3. The “bonus” is spread out over the cap on the remaining non-option years
4. Bogi can waive a potion or all of it
— SactownBabyGiraffe (@TimMaxwell22) November 22, 2020
So, to clarify, the Kings would be responsible for a bonus equal to 15% of the remaining guaranteed money if/when they trade Bogi. The longer they keep him, the smaller that hit is. If the Kings found a destination Bogi liked, he could also waive that kicker to make a deal easier. And the Kings could always try to negotiate to have the team acquiring Bogi send back cash considerations to offset the financial impact of the kicker.
Keeping Bogi would preserve an asset but create a logjam between Bogi, Buddy Hield, and Tyrese Haliburton. Letting Bogi walk would create a cleaner cap sheet and avoid a logjam, but would mean losing a good player for nothing.
With the framework set, let's start the discussion. Let us know in the comments how you would handle Bogi's situation.
I would rather match. We can roster him and wait for the right time to deal both BB8 and Buddy.
I really love Bogdan though. I wish it didn’t have to be this way…
Also, think you could have found a higher resolution photo of Bogdan?
I feel like he could be a character in Wolfenstein.
He definitely has the jawline.
Rostering him = less minutes for him… or you can start him, bench a disgruntled Hield, take away minutes from Haliburton, just to keep Bogi’s trade value high – and then trade him with a 15% kicker in the middle of the season..
Let him walk. Above average player, solid starter. There are many like him. Give minutes to Haliburton who would happily sit on a bench as he develops.
Bogi will not take minutes from Hali. Don’t know why that’s a thing. Maybe that’s what homers like James Ham will say if we get nothing in return. “It’s all part of the plan, you guys”.
It’s simple asset management. We match, and then trade him sooner or later for younger players who will fit better with Hali.
Bogi can waive the kicker if he’s not happy here.
I agree that they should match but think they should move him as soon as possible once they do. Any sort of significant return is better than letting him walk, but hanging onto him as he gets older (not to mention an injury and being stuck with his contract) is a risk that outweighs the type of return you’re going to get anyways, even if you maximize his value
I am torn. Neither Buddy nor Bogi are part of the future. They both should be gone by the end of this next season at the latest.
That said, it would be nice to get some value for them. I think both would have more value at the trade deadline (as contenders deal with injuries, misfitting parts, and lack of shooting/playmaking). It’s a gamble and you are taking on the trade kicker as the price to play, but one that could pay off in acquiring some assets.
Tend to agree, however there is no guarantee he doesn’t get injured himself, and then we’re saddled with him while his value drops…
I would match Bogi. We don’t have many assets and can’t afford to lose any. I would then try to trade Buddy for assets. If not Buddy then Barnes.
if this all fails I’m ok running Fox, Bogi, Buddy and hoping Halliburton at 30+ minutes a game. Barnes would split time between PF/SF around 50/50. I would go small ball. It would be fun to watch while we try to maximize our assets for future assets.
Totally agree with this.
Let him walk. If the future starts now, there’s no reason to ankle yourself to someone with recurring knee problems, and who will be thirty-two when the contract ends.
Assuming he stays, let Buddy start, and give Haliburton at least twenty-five minute per game. Since the new kid also plays the point with great skill, he can also spell Fox.
Let the kids play, this season isn’t about anything other than development.
32 when the contract ends actually spunds perfectly ideal to me, that’s a player’s prime.
Haha, no it isn’t, not even close:
https://courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/cse163/20su/files/project/archive/nba.pdf
Hey, if we get back on track to a normal season timeline he’ll only be 31 when his contact ends. Does that help? No? Didn’t think so.
This changes everything!
He is an asset and would be under that contract. Talent deprived teams like the Kangz can’t lose the few assets they have for nothing. Sign him and either trade him or Buddy at a later time.
i think Monte is taking his time matching just to screw back at Atl. But we’ll see.
I would vote match…barely.
This is not without risk, obviously. Aside from the risk that always accompanies large contracts (injuries, trade demands, post-payment lethargy), one could argue that Bogi’s presence could have a negative growth impact on Haliburton, as Walton is not exactly known for developing youth in the first place. It could also continue to tamp down Hield’s value. But…
If the Kings commit to putting their best players into rotation and going smaller at the wing, there could be enough minutes to go around, and Haliburton could develop and Hield could regain his past value. Narrow needle to thread and all that.
Also, I think that the NBA will rebound financially post-COVID and that Bogi’s contract could eventually be better than fair value.
So I match. But it’s razor close, and while I’ll bemoan losing Bogi for nothing, I’ll understand the rationale if that happens.
Shake his hand and let him walk. The future of this team’s backcourt is Fox and Haliburton. Hield, for better or worse, won’t be going anywhere for a bit unless the Kings accept pennies on the dollar. McNair’s rebuild will take at least 2-3 full seasons to get going (assuming all goes well), when Bogi will be north of 30 and in line for one last big (probably inflated) payday. Keep the money, embrace the 2021 tankathon, and look forward.
How does having Bogi around negatively impact Haliburton’s growth? Fox is a 1. Haliburton is a 1 or 2. Buddy’s a 2. Bogi is a 1, 2, or 3.
1- Fox 32 mins/ Hali 16
2- Buddy 30 mins/Hali 10/ Bogi 8
3- Bogi 22 mins/ Barnes 10/ Jeffries 16
4- Barnes 20/ Bagley 15/ Bjelly 13
5- Holmes 25/ Bagley 15/ Bjelly 8
That’s 26 minutes per game for Haliburton. Same as Gilgeous-Alexander his rookie year. Obviously you want to move Buddy and/or Bogi (and Barnes) as soon as you can to add young talent/picks in return.
Bottom line in my opinion is that Bogi is a valuable asset. You don’t just let those walk for nothing. $18M is fair market value for his services. You match, and you figure out the rest later. No damage will be done by keeping Bogi this year. If he wants out, he can waive the trade kicker.
Yeah, I’d argue that keeping Buddy over Bogi is more of a hindrance to Hali’s potential playing time and growth.
I could see Fox, Hali, and Bogi sharing time on the floor together, while I can’t say the same for Fox, Hali, and Buddy.
I’ve read that Hali might have a 7′ wingspan, so he might be able to defend SF’s if he gets stronger.
He is long, but it would take years of strength training to get to that point, IMO.
He’s 20. Adding crazy amounts of size and strength at that age is just matter of lifting a lot and jamming food into his foodhole.
(oh how I yearn for those days…)
That’s why I said he’d have to get stronger.
If Hali gets more muscle on his frame (and I heard he’s going to) he can play 1-3 easy.
You give a lot of defense away starting Bogi st the 3. Bogi is 6’6″ and average SF is 6’8″ to 6’10”. Bogi can’t make up for it with a long wingspan like Haliburton, either.
Yeah, the point is not to win games. So if Bogi gets eaten up on D, that’s fine. Maybe he’ll waive the trade kicker to go somewhere he can play his natural position. And we’d get something in return. Point is, it won’t hurt Hali either way.
Since when is not winning the object of playing games?
during a tank
Fair enough…I’m not a fan of the tank..but do understand the reasons for it
If Haliburton is Fox’s backcourt mate of the future, I’d argue it doesn’t make sense to play him split time with Bogi and Buddy in either the short or long term. As you showed above, keeping Bogi AND giving Haliburton significant playing time will 1) require Hali to back up Fox at PG, rather than play alongside him, and 2) require Bogi to play out of position at the 3. (Yes, he’s done it in the past; no, it doesn’t work very well.) A three-guard rotation of Fox, Buddy, and Hali can keep all three in their natural positions, provide more PT for Hali to develop, and–bonus–maintain more cap flexibility for the FO.
Bogi is a bona fide starter-level talent, but having four guards who need/want starter-level minutes in the backcourt is not a tenable situation. Someone’s going to get left on the bench and/or playing out of position at the 3. And for what? A few extra wins this year and next, if all goes well? I understand that Bogi is a good asset, and you don’t give up assets for nothing. But $17 million/year in cap space is also an asset, and you don’t just throw out that opportunity, either. This isn’t a choice of “asset” (Bogi”) vs. “no asset”; it’s about which asset will be more useful for the Kings at this point. My vote is for the cap space and the extra PT for Hali that comes with it.
EDIT: For the record, I’d much rather have Bogi than Buddy, so if McNair can find a way to dump Buddy in the next 24 hours and then match Bogi, sign me up in a heartbeat.
Saying that Haliburton is Fox’s backcourt mate of the future and relying on it are two entirely different things. Think we have to see him play first.
This comment, full of hard earned insight and gorgeous simplicity, should the end of the discussion.
What are we going to do with $18M in cap space? We’re never going to sign a free agent with the value Bogi has right now. Bogi > cap space.
I’m not using a late lottery rookie as justification to let talent go (just yet). He’ll get his PT (as illustrated above), and the one blocking his pairing up with Fox (as you can see) is not Bogi, it’s Buddy.
You absolutely trade Buddy for whatever expirings plus picks/prospects you can get.
Whether or not the Kings keep BB8, Hali’s probably gonna play at PG & SG (& he’ll probably play alongside Fox for many of his minutes at SG).
So we’re cool with giving Fox a max deal and not increasing his minutes per game?
Fox will make around $8M this year. I’d like to free up more minutes by trading Buddy and/or Bogi by the time the max extension kicks in next year. But I’m not into giving valuable rotation players away for free.
Man, looking at your minutes projections makes me think how expensive CoJo is as a non-rotation guy.
Yeah the draft changed things for CoJo. Unfortunately he should be odd man out. Maybe we can get him to a contender for filler and a 2nd.
I’m keeping an eye out on James Hams tweet about something being in the works with Indiana. Letting Len walk made me buy into that a bit more. James is no Amick but has history of being the voice for the front office. Of course, matching and sending him to Indiana for Turner would be incredible if they can pull it off.
also, if Bogi doesn’t want to be here, I’m sure he’d sign off on a trade to a team he likes. Even if it’s peanuts at that point. At least we get something. I’m just praying for an article detailing how Monte sent a big FU back to Atlanta for this offer sheet with some move no one saw coming.
If that happens and we get Turner for this brouhaha then that’s a big, big FU to Atlanta.
Keep Bogi, IF we are confident we can trade both him and Buddy for decent value. Otherwise, let him walk.
Bogi can’t be traded this year without his consent
Something tells me he’d consent if he’s going to a better situation (aka he’d consent to trades to about 25 other teams)
If he still gets the money he won’t mind being traded to anywhere IMO.
Milwaukee Bucks on line 1 to have a word about this.
That was a $ dispute. Now that’s he getting the $ he wants, he’ll probably go to any good team.
I would match. Even if we only get .50 on the dollar, that is better then letting him walk. I would certainly trade Buddy soon.
Anybody else think we should kick the tires on Dario Saric or Juancho Hernangomez? I think one could be a solid add.
Saric resigned with Phoenix
Saw that Juancho is going back to Minny.
annnnd hernangomez re-signed with the wolves
Definitely match. As the trade kicker also verifies, Bogi is a valuable asset and Kings can’t let him walk without compensation. Roster is also thinning. Figure out next steps and options for him, Buddy and others on the roster later.
Match. The Kings are a market that cannot let assets walk for nothing. At near dead last in desired market for players their only option for improvement are through the draft or trade. The Kings will not get anyone of Bogi’s caliber to sign via free agency.
Once matched, McNair can evaluate the roster and make adjustments as the season progresses. The Kings are not making the playoffs anytime soon so retain what valuable assets you have and use them in trade as needed over the next year.
This.
It truly makes no sense not to match it. So many contending teams will be looking to add difference makers at the trade deadline for their push to playoffs. Holding onto Bogi and dangling him for assets / picks is a no-brainer in my mind.
True and great point, but can they trade him at this season’s deadline, or do they have to wait 1 year? Still not clear on that.
My understanding is that they would not be able to trade Bogi to the team that signed him (Atlanta) for one year. They could trade him to other teams, but that would trigger the 15% trade kicker. Not sure if there are any veto clauses in addition to the kicker, which would further complicate things.
I think he gets to veto in the first year. I suspect he wouldn’t though, unless he was going into a truly terrible situation.
Walk. Everyone but Fox, Bagley, and the rooks need to go. Pile up the losses for a top-five pick and start over with a fresh vision. Bogi does not vault this team into a contender, does not fit the timeline, and any win he brings while on the team potentially puts us further down the draft order.
Caveat being, of course, to only match if McNair has a sure-bet trade lined up to trade Bogi to a different team, not turned off by the 15% kicker, before the deadline this year, for younger player(s) that fit the timeline. But that’s a lot of ifs, so I highly doubt would be doable.
.. One more thing on the salary — I think whatever Milwaukee had in mind to offer ($14 mil or so) was probably fair value. Atlanta’s offer is a necessary overpay to dissuade matching. Adding the kicker, that’s about $5.5 mil per year or a total of $22 mil over value for the life of the contract! That’s more than enough to turn off most teams if the plan is to flip him. If Bogi wasn’t already part of team and well-liked by fans, it would be a Kanzy move to offer up such a contract given the fact that we are nowhere close to contending.
Match, I`m here for the drama if Bogdan and Buddy still here, cause its sure as hell not for the basketball.
The fact that it hasn’t been reported the the Kings are going to let him walk OR match tells me the McNair is still working on something. Yes, he still less than 24 hours to decide Bogi’s fate, but if his intention were to simply match or let him walk, we would have heard about it by now. Something is still cooking, me thinks.
This is what I’ve been thinking. Or they’re waiting for more of a consensus opinion at TKH. Hence this thread ð.
Could also just be trying to make ATL sweat into a S&T. They are sitting on that $18M offer sheet while what what’s left of the usable free agents get picked up.
I believe now that Bogi has signed, sign and trade is no longer an option, nor can Bogi be traded to Atlanta for one year if we do match.
From what I understand they can pull the offer sheet within the 48 hours. If they do that, they can negotiate a sign and trade. That all being said, they’d only do that if there was another target for them in free agency, but that ship and nearly sailed because not much is left.
Hm, I have never heard of that happening once the offer has been signed and submitted to the original team. If parties can back away from signed agreements then what’s the point of the whole process? I could be wrong, but either way that avenue sounds pretty far fetched.
Yeah, it’s far fetched. I doubt it happens. Just spitballing as to why McNair would need the full 48 hours to make this decision. If he has no intention of matching, why not just say so so both parties can move on? I’m not sure why he’d need the full 48 hours to make the decision, especially with nothing else happening.
Had McNair used the last 24 hours to sign free agents, it would make more sense to wait 48 hours so they could go over the cap to match Bogi’s offer. Since nothing else has happened I assume McNair is still working on something.
He hasn’t needed the time to decide, he’s just fucking Atlanta for putting such a big sheet on the table. The money they offered is tied up until McNair decides, which could cost them a shot at some players.
I love the shrewdness of waiting until the last minute. Is it that big of a sheet though? Seems like any other year with more teams having cap space Bogi would have got bid up near $20M/yr.
But there is no one left for them to spend $18M on. At this point, what is the point? It also doesn’t address the fact that McNair has done NOTHING else. If makes me feel like he is still working on something.
If I had to guess, he is working the phones on a trade for Buddy. If he can move Buddy by noon EST tomorrow, he matches on Bogi.
There is no reason to rush to decide, regardless of whether there’s anything concrete in the works. The only possibility I can think of is a match and trade for Myles Turner, given that youth movement seems to be the plan.
Flip Buddy/keep Bogi just doesn’t seem to fit, but then again neither does the interest in Whiteside. So who knows.
That would be my ideal situation. Flip Buddy for Turner and match on Bogi. Julius Randle is another one I’d inquire about.
If the Knicks are serious about trading for Westbrook they will need to send Randle’s contract the other way (or like 9 other dudes)
If they aren’t serious about Westbrook, trading for Buddy would be the Knicksiest thing ever.
Resign Bogi. Trade Buddy to ATL for Huerter, Hunter, and Reddish. Throw in CoJo or Justin James. Just PLEASE get it done. As stated, our roster is looking thin these days.
This is actually a strategy!
I seriously doubt Atlanta would trade all 3 of those guys for Buddy.
I get the sense that the return for Buddy would be almost nothing so I don’t think you’re getting any of those players for him.
I highly doubt that Buddy has no trade value, seems like BS rumors to me. Buddy is still a lights-out shooter and they are getting paid.
Harris got 4/$72M. Bertans just got 5/$80M and is not as well-rounded as Buddy is. Using Bertans as a comparison, Buddy rebounds well for a SG so he actually rebounds at a higher clip than Bertans (BH 4.6/g vs DB 4.5/g), not to mention assists & steals being in Buddy’s favor as well (which is expected for his position, but even blocks/g was close at 0.2 vs 0.6).
If Bertans can command 5/$80M, Buddy definitely has some trade value.
I think Buddy has some trade value, but it’ll need to be built back up to get his trade value to a level that’d lead to a good trade (& I think that could happen since I think Gentry will be running the offense next season).
Match Bogi and ship Buddy at the trade deadline. There is bound to be a contender that would be willing to pull the trigger.
I would let Bogi walk. Fox, Bagley, and the new kids are the future. They need all the minutes they can get to develop. Having Bogi and Hield on this roster does nothing for Sacramento’s future.
This calls for an old-fashioned coin flip
Match. Can’t give up what few assets we have. I also think there must be something cooking since all the players that have been allowed to leave. (Ok, think = hope.)
Joe Dumars is working the phones with all of his connections.
i would bet a cheeseburger Monte and Joe are also spending a lot of time with Vivek and with the larger minority interest owners walking them through the upside and the downside of matching the Hawks offer as well as doing nothing and identifying other options to monetize Bogi as an asset that should merit a fair ROCE.
I don’t trust Buddy to not cause drama even if they let BB8 walk and he gets to start. I’d prefer to match BB8 and find a trade partner for Buddy.
That is my biggest fear as well. They my let Bogi walk but also have Buddy demand a trade in the coming months.
Great, tell Buddy to have his agent find someone who wants to trade something of value for him.
I am hoping this has been done already.
Keep. Who else are we going to sign with that 18 mill? No ones coming, we need to either draft or kidnap, I mean trade, for our assets.
Can always take on bad contracts and facilitate trades with that cap space for draft picks.
When you cannot get a whiff of the playoffs, like when Bogi choked two years ago and Buddy choked this summer, shooting us out of 2-3 games, when these are the two guys who are unhappy, I say STFU. You have no right to be unhappy or make demands when you have only been part of chronic losing. When you lead the team to playoffs and play well there then you can make demands. No one cares if you are unhappy.
Guess what, everyone else is unhappy with the collective underachievement and failure that got the GM canned, including other players and the fans bearing witness to the ineptitude, how about that?
So for those who say we need to appease or assuage their unhappiness, I say how about they take ownership for their discontent and play better. How about you use past adversity as motivation? Wasn’t Buddy unhappy right before he signed his 90M contract . Then he is unhappy soon again, this baby needs to grow up and look in the mirror and stop giving the ball away to the opponent like candy.
There is too much credence put into this notion, Buddy and Bogi is unhappy and we must cater to their demands. And this is why we need a stronger minded coach then a Southern California Surfer. The weakness and passiveness of Walton trickles down. A coach who garnered more respect would nip this BS in the bud.
This is a long winded way of saying none of the decisions related to keeping Bogi should relate to the prospective happiness or unhappiness of him or Buddy who both will get paid a ton of dough to dribble a ball. You are unhappy, so what, get over you prima donna p**ses and play better if you want to come near to earning your contract.
I say we match on Bogi then fire Walton at the first team slump (prob Feb or March) and get a new coach in there that can get the most out of these players instead of let the whine like spoiled children. In the meantime you hope either have career years to pump their trade value. Pump and dump is far more appealing than letting Bogi walk for nothing,
I would let him walk. Imagine if Bogi were a free agent, because right now, that’s basically what he is. With our roster as it is now, would signing another shooting guard be on your top-five list of priorities?
That’s as good of a summary as you’re going to find. I’d rec this twice if I could.
The thing is, I don’t think you match to keep him long term. I don’t think many of feel that Bogi or Buddy are going to be on the next playoff team. You match just to keep the asset in the cupboard, not to win games.
It’s a high risk asset that creates problems for the team.
Wait, Bogi is high risk?
At that contract, with that trade kicker, his age, and injury history there is more than a little risk that attempts to salvage value out of his restricted status blows up in the Kings face if they match.
Contract is market value. Trade kicker can be waived. He’s 28. His injury history is fine. I think high risk is over-stating a little. It’s a risk for sure, but seems to be one that at least one very respected GM in Schlenk is willing to take.
I don’t think there will ever be a next playoff team.
Best take of the day.
No it wouldnt but signing another shooting gaurd thats better and cheaper then the one I already have then I do that. Then I trade the more expensive one who is not as good for pennies on the dollar. I am ok with that.
What color is the sky in the world where this happens?
Huh? What do you mean. It happens under a blue sky.
Bogi is better and cheaper then Buddy. Keep the better and cheaper player as opposed to the weaker more expensive player.
Trade Buddy. Is it for Pennies on the dollar? I don’t care.
Just trade him.
“Here, other team! You’re taking Buddy Hield and his shit attitude! We would like back one All-Star and between nine and twelve first round picks.”
You’re right. McNair would be stupid not to do this deal.