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The Sacramento Kings should match Bogdan Bogdanović’s contract

Even if both sides are ready to move on, the Kings cannot afford to lose Bogi for nothing.

To match or not to match? There's a 9 p.m. deadline for the Sacramento Kings to decide what to do with the $72 million dollar, four-year contract Bogdan Bogdanović signed with the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday, and by absolutely no coincidence, 'sources' have told the Sacramento Bee's Jason Anderson that the 28-year-old shooting guard feels "de-prioritized" by the Kings - almost certainly a last ditch effort by Bogi's camp to convince Sacramento to let their client go where he wanted in free agency. But the smart move for the Kings, albeit a complicated one with multiple pitfalls and concerns, is still to match the contract for Bogdanović and look to trade him.

Neither the Kings front office or the Kings fandom should hold it against Bogi that he went and found the best deal for himself. Already 28 and in his prime as a player, this is his best chance to secure a big contract for himself. And while it's miserable for the Kings that the sign-and-trade with the Milwaukee Bucks fell apart - a deal that would have given the Kings Donte DiVincenzo and D.J. Wilson to add to their rebuild - given how the deal fell apart once it went public, it's hardly fair to blame Bogi's camp.

Given that things fell apart once it became clear that Bogdanovic wanted a larger contract, if the deal hadn't been announced to the world through a Woj bomb, it likely would have fizzled in the background without a public spectacle. But because the Bucks wanted to signify their splashy offseason in an attempt to show they were making the moves needed to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo, a deal that was clearly unfinished and couldn't be signed for 5 more days went public. It's not Bogi's fault that an unfinished deal died on the negotiating table.

It's also very understandable that Bogi would want out, or even that he would feel "de-prioritized." Negotiating with the Bucks for two youngsters signified to everyone, Bogi included, that the Kings were looking to rebuild and their intention was to move on. If the Kings match Bogdanovic, they'll do so likely not out of an intention to make him a long-term piece - but to utilize him as an asset, to avoid losing one of their better players for nothing. In Atlanta, he'd have been joining a team on the accession - in Sacramento, who knows.

But the Kings cannot afford to continue losing players for nothing - a staple technique of the Vlade Divac era that Monte McNair would be wise to strip from the playbook. Certainly, having Bogi at a $72M contract (and one that comes with a 15% trade kicker) isn't the most ideal situation, especially when Buddy Hield (4 years and roughly $80M left) and Harrison Barnes (3 years, $61M left) already fill the Kings cap sheet. If McNair is truly on the verge of a rebuild, it won't be easy to swap all three of these players in deals that make sense for all sides. But it's also what McNair signed up for when he joined the Kings - a messy team in need of a harsher reset than many probably hoped or expected. And letting Boganovic leave for Atlanta and getting nothing in return does not further the Kings rebuild.

In April, when the Kings were still managed by Divac and the ship was full-speed-ahead for playoffs or bust, I wrote that Bogdanovic was the Kings second best player. If rosters were frozen in place, I still think he is. But if McNair is truly looking to rebuild the team (and take advantage of the - and I cannot oversell this enough - excellent 2021 draft class), it only makes sense to move on from Bogi (and Buddy, and Barnes). Monte McNair shouldn't have owners or fans breathing down his neck on this decision - he got hired to do the job, and should be allowed to make his moves. But as much as Bogi was in his right to go sign whatever contract he could receive, the Kings have the right to match the deal... and trade-kicker be damned, a roughly $18M a year contract for Bogdanovic is plenty reasonable in the current NBA market.

The Kings should match the contract. This is not a team that can lose its best players for nothing.

 

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Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
November 24, 2020 10:30 am

I really feel that if the Kings match the Hawks will inquire about Buddy. They have roughly $20M in space and could eat most of Buddy’s deal. ATL seems to want to win now, so something like Buddy for Snell and a future protected first. ATL has all of their 1sts and owns OKC 2022 1st rounder (lottery protected)

It many not seem like a good return, but it clears the cap for McNair, retains a valuable asset in Bogi on a fair deal, removes a player that wants out, and frees up rotation minutes for Hali. It is playing the long game.

HumboldtCPA
November 24, 2020 11:17 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Sounds good to me!

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 12:27 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I very strongly agree with all of the words you wrote here. Smart man

NotAlwaysLogic
November 24, 2020 12:34 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Agree and I would think ATL would take that deal. Buddy would likely be better for them than Bogi anyways.

YoungSuperteam
November 24, 2020 1:28 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I really don’t want Tony Snell as I want 2 of Ramsey/Jefferies/Woodard to get real rotation minutes. I do want the picks and financial flexibility though!

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 10:31 am

100% agree. We keep our best players until when/if the right deal comes along.

I also think a Bogi match will open up the market for Hield. I think teams are trying to take advantage with lowball offers while Monte’s hands are tied.

Match the contract, and negotiate with more leverage. You got this Monte.

itsjabby
November 24, 2020 10:31 am

Match and figure the rest out later… sounds like a vlade move. But I’m sure monte has a plan even though this is a challenging decision

aplumley
November 24, 2020 10:34 am

I agree. It’s a decent contract. Kings have a hard time getting UFAs to come here. We get our talent from draft, trade, and keeping talent. This is a no brainer. It’s a net positive asset during a rebuild.

RikSmits
November 24, 2020 10:37 am

I have felt de-prioritized during my whole fandom of this team.

You don’t hear me complai- never mind.

November 24, 2020 10:39 am

Meh. I’m good either way. At this point, I’m here for the entertainment. ENTERTAIN ME!

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 10:41 am

Given the history of Bobo’s agent, I’m nearly 100% certain that it’s more than fair to blame Bogi’s camp for the implosion of the Milwaukee deal.

NinjaFetus
November 24, 2020 10:42 am
Reply to  andy_sims

You beat me to it Andy!

Want2win
November 24, 2020 10:47 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Andy.. I am not familiar with his agent and what he has done in the past, could you enlighten us? Sincere question

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 10:53 am
Reply to  Want2win

Remember when we signed Bjelica a couple of years ago? He had already accepted an offer from Philly when his agent chimed in that his client was going to go play in Europe. The deal was cancelled, and then he signed with Sacramento for more than the Sixers had offered.

I believe there are other examples. but the details elude me at present.

November 24, 2020 10:54 am
Reply to  andy_sims

This agent may have behind the Spurs/Morii switcheroo

Want2win
November 24, 2020 10:54 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Ok yes I remember that.. thanks..

Gregoryl
November 24, 2020 11:36 am
Reply to  andy_sims

The agents want to get as much money for their client, that’s all. The hawks are likely to pay him more than the bucks were. They did their job, like it or not.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 12:12 pm
Reply to  Gregoryl

There’s a recipe for success.

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ImJoeKing
November 24, 2020 4:29 pm
Reply to  Gregoryl

Still, the tactic of verbally agreeing to a deal and then reneging after it is announced publicly is a bad faith move that should ruffle some feathers.

And I have to believe that Bogi’s camp did give the green light on the Bucks deal in principle. I guess teams haven’t learned yet, but I think they will and perhaps change tactics with this agent.

NinjaFetus
November 24, 2020 10:48 am

I think we get it from Bogi’s camp, he’s in his prime and wants a payday. But even with the moves Atlanta has made I don’t think they’re a top contender, at least not quite yet. Playoffs sure, but getting past the Bucks/76s/Heat/Celtics I’d put 50/50 at best. He had a chance to go to a true contender, but that deal fell apart. I don’t think we know fully who was at fault, but like Andy said it’s not past his agent’s prior history to put it out of the realm of possibility that their side nixed it to chase money. And it’s understandable, he’s 28 and this is probably the largest contract he has a chance to get.

Let him walk and get his payday. He gets to go to a team that is higher on the rebuild status and make the playoffs. His not feeling prioritized shouldn’t come as a shock, he had to know that the Kings would build around Fox and he was on the older side of that timeline.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 10:56 am
Reply to  NinjaFetus

We can give him his payday here too. I’m sorry he’s feeling de-prioritized, but he’s RFA. We’re willing to let him go, but not for nothing.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 12:39 pm
Reply to  NinjaFetus

You’re not a priority. Heres 18 million dollars to stay. Pretty sure feeling like you are not a priority would go away after that.

But even if the Kings said, “Youre not a priority, thats why we are going to match the contract and then trade you.” thats cool too. This league is a business. Bogi knows that just like every other player. Suck it up, you just got 72 million dollars, plenty to be happy about.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 12:56 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

That was all guys like Timofey Mozgov, Chandler Parsons, Alan Crabbe, and Joakim Noah needed to step up their play: A big contract.

MillersCornrows
November 24, 2020 5:50 pm
Reply to  NinjaFetus

I don’t understand how he can feel “de-prioritized.” He became a starter and played big minutes! What the heck?

richie88
November 24, 2020 6:19 pm

I assume he’s saying that b/c he’s hoping he can convince the Kings not to match or b/c of something that happened during the FA process.

jay14bay
November 24, 2020 10:58 am

Donte sounds so good right about now.

RikSmits
November 24, 2020 11:45 am
Reply to  jay14bay

comment image

RORDOG
November 24, 2020 10:59 am

There’s benefits in keeping him and benefits to letting him walk. I think I’d probably let him walk to maintain maximum flexibility in 2021. The downside risk is obvious, but in no way crippling in the overall scheme of things IMO.

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 11:13 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Yeah, we wouldn’t want to cripple that 40 win team the Kings got. I just don’t understand why you would a near luxury tax line for a roster that is 500 in the best case scenario as constructed.

And I suspect McNair feels that way, or something approximate to it. A bottom half playoff team maybe at best. But is that…..worth spending a lot of money on?

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
November 24, 2020 11:34 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

They’d still be about $15M below the tax lin if they matched on Bogi. They wouldn’t cross that line until Fox’s contract kicks in for the 2021-22 season, and that assumes they’d still have all of Buddy, Bogi, Banes and Joseph on the roster then.

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 12:31 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

That isn’t supremely appealing, I must admit Adam.

Otis
November 24, 2020 12:33 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

None of the cap stuff really concerns me – there really aren’t any toxic assets, including Barnes. The long term cap is pretty clean.

It’s not like he’s going to need to attach draft picks to move deals, especially next season or the season after.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 1:12 pm
Reply to  Otis

100%

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 1:11 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Jesus!!! Even more reason to match then!

#nobrainer

NotAlwaysLogic
November 24, 2020 12:39 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

What’s McNair going to do with cap space? Seriously. I think the point that continues to get said here is that we need to maintain assets so we can move them for future (hopefully better and more and younger) assets.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 1:10 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

They wouldnt be spending that money on him so they can win more, They would be spending that money on him so they can get things of equal or slightly lesser value for him in a trade that helps with the building process.

Last edited 1 month ago by ArcoThunder
Yakshi
November 24, 2020 12:41 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I agree. In the big picture, unless you see a clear route to trade for a first-round draft pick or good, young assets near Fox’s age, you tip your hat to Atlanta on the contract they offered, and you tank.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 12:44 pm
Reply to  Yakshi

So, unless there is a trade lined up TODAY, we just let the asset walk? Sorry I don’t under this logic.

Yakshi
November 24, 2020 12:51 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Yes. I think in the big picture, the fastest way for the Kings to improve is by tanking. Bogi doesn’t help us tank. Another shooting guard isn’t remotely a need for the Kings now. The trade terms–the kicker, no trade to ATL in the first year–make trading Bogi difficult. Long-term flexibility is reduced. The market for Buddy appears to be nonexistent. We don’t need wins.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 1:06 pm
Reply to  Yakshi

Bogi and Buddy helping us win isnt really a thing. Unfortunately. They are better off on other teams. Which is why we should trade them for pieces that might make us better in the future not let them walk away with no return. If there is an option for a return you take it. If there is not then you don’t. There is 100% a market for both of these guys if what you expect in return is equal or lesser market value.

We don’t need Bogi to bring back Myles Turner if we are dealing with Indiana for example. That would be really nice (maybe you need to include Holmes which would still be worth it) but that doesn’t need to be the floor for the deals we accept for Bogi. A late future first round pick, Doug mcdermott 1 year 7 million, Justin Holiday 1 year 4.7 million, and TJ leaf 1 year 4.7million would be excellent as well. Is it a much lower value for him then Myle Turner? Definitely. However it nets us the same outcome for 2021 as letting Bogi walk to Atlanta but we would have an extra first round draft pick.

Last edited 1 month ago by ArcoThunder
Yakshi
November 24, 2020 1:10 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

Personally, I think that you want players who are not assets under their current contracts to walk away without any return. Having nothing instead of a liability is a win.

Yakshi
November 24, 2020 12:51 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

In other words, I disagree that Bogi would be an asset under that contract.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 1:20 pm
Reply to  Yakshi

Ok I guess we just disagree on that fundamental point. Maybe the value is diminished, but I think it’s still greater than zero.

markdog333
November 24, 2020 1:58 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I think Bogi will still have value to a small number of the elite teams in the league. I keep thinking that he would be very appealing as the 6-7 best player on a competitive team, but he isn’t talented enough to move the needle much as the 3-5 best player on a mediocre team.

In my mind, the best likely return on him in a trade would be for a bad contract plus a late 1st round pick or young player with upside. Basically what MIL offered.

Last edited 1 month ago by markdog333
AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 2:11 pm
Reply to  markdog333

The “bad contract” that MIL offered though was expiring. With cap space, you need to take on long-term deals typically to warrant receiving an asset (pick/prospect) in return.

markdog333
November 24, 2020 2:15 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I am expecting that the bad contract in this scenario would need to be higher and likely longer, but yes.

ScottyPop
November 24, 2020 3:21 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I’m with Yakshi on this one Max 🙂

The one big thing that doesn’t seem to be getting enough discussion (IMO) – What if he gets hurt before you can trade him or Buddy? He does have an injury history. While he hasn’t had any major injuries it’s still a major concern for me. That’s in addition to the other negatives that have been thoroughly discussed here the last couple days.

Is it worth taking on $18m/year for a piece that doesn’t fit in the long-term plans, is a short-term asset (if you can offload him quickly as everyone is just assuming can happen), hurts possible draft positioning and could potentially be injured? For what? A minor prospect like DD and maybe a late 1st round pick. Not worth the risk IMO. I’d rather keep the capspace flexibility to be able to take on a bad contract for a late 1st instead.

Everyone keeps talking about this as an asset issue. I mean, how much value is Bogi on an $18M/yr contract with the trade kicker? What are you guys really expecting to get back? Is that worth the risk?

Otis
November 24, 2020 3:24 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

I think he’s decent value at that price, and could be much better value down the road. It’s definitely not without risk, but Bogi drew a decent amount of interest on the market, and not as a UFA, but as an RFA.

The trade kicker is a nothingburger in the grand scheme of things IMO, and could be waived.

ScottyPop
November 24, 2020 3:29 pm
Reply to  Otis

So what is decent value? And, what’s the difference between decent value and what the $18M in space could be used for? And is the delta between those two worth taking on the risk (both injury related and other)? I don’t think it is.

Sorry, I’m a 49ers fan. I can’t help but think about injuries right now.

Otis
November 24, 2020 3:39 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

That $18 million isn’t necessarily available space to use if you don’t match on Bogdan.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
November 24, 2020 4:10 pm
Reply to  Otis

Correct, the Kings should have around $8-9M in space if they let Bogi walk. That kind of room isn’t going to get you a pick attached to a salary dump.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 3:38 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

Haha, no worries 🙂 … We’ve discussed this before, but the question really boils down to: What is worth more: Bogi or cap space?

I would argue Bogi is worth more. I’ll take DD (or equivalent) + expiring filler + a lower prospect/pick (the MIL offer) over say, Andrew Wiggins and a late 1st.

Because typically when you are taking on contracts to acquire prospects/picks, they are bad contracts for multiple years. That’s why they are bad.

ScottyPop
November 24, 2020 3:55 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I’m in agreement that Bogi is worth more than the capspace alone. I’m just not in agreement that the difference between the two is worth the risk.

I guess nobody wants to discuss/contemplate injury possibility. Apparently I’m on my own with that one.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 4:00 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

I think the likelihood he hurts his value due to injury is roughly equal to the likelihood he balls out and increases his value. So (in my book at least) it’s a wash.

ScottyPop
November 24, 2020 4:04 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Fair enough. He’s 28, I think we’ve seen balled-out Bogi, personally. I’d put the injury chance at a much higher probability than him becoming a significantly different player than he’s been the past couple years.

Last edited 1 month ago by ScottyPop
AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 4:36 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

Yeah it’s possible. I’m thinking an improved playmaking Fox with another year under his belt, and the addition of Gentry to the staff, this could be a nice year for Bogi. But yeah, the injury risk is always out there.

ImJoeKing
November 24, 2020 4:57 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

I’m with you, Scotty. The cap space is slightly less valuable than Bogi if he’s playing well, but there’s plenty of scenarios where Bogi could underperform in which case Bogi wouldn’t be an asset at all.

Whereas the cap space has no risk involved, it can’t get injured, it can’t underperform, it’s just cap space.

If I’m the owner, or the GM spending the owner’s money I’d let him walk and save that cash if spending it doesn’t make the team a winner and doesn’t have significantly more value than not spending it. I know nobody cares about the cash side, but spending $18m on something with risk that doesn’t really make you better isn’t necessarily good asset management.

And if the best case scenario for a trade return is a bad contact and a pick, that’s something you can get for cap space. Keeping Bogi doesn’t really make sense, tanking, saving the money, and improving your draft capital is a better direction.

Otis
November 24, 2020 5:01 pm
Reply to  ImJoeKing

You have to cut that cap space in about half though, don’t forget.

ImJoeKing
November 24, 2020 5:37 pm
Reply to  Otis

I do realize that. So the return might not be as great, but $10m per year off someone’s hands can still be rewarded.

If Buddy’s current trade market is any indication, a low-end starter or top-tier reserve at ~$20-25m (where Bogi’s deal lands when you add 15%) isn’t fetching much.

It’s not an exact comparison as they are different players with different skill sets, but it does tell you that a fair to slight overpay contract for that caliber player doesn’t necessarily carry much trade value.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 12:53 pm
Reply to  Yakshi

No need for concern. Theres plenty of options and opportunities to trade one or both of Buddy and Bogi. 100%

No hat tipping from me.

Yakshi
November 24, 2020 12:56 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

If it wasn’t Bogi, and he hadn’t just been on the Kings, and was just a nameless, faceless NBA player with Bogi’s skills, and Bogi offered you this contract, would you accept it?

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 12:49 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I dont get this. You acknowledge that the downside risk is in no way crippling. You want flexibility in 2021.

What is stopping us from having flexibility plus a future draft pick? Some hard work on Monty’s part? Well, it’s his job, figure it out. We don’t need to “WIN” the trades with Bogi and Buddy. We simply need to acquire future draft picks, young cheap players with upside potential and 1-2 year expiring contracts. It’s a very reasonable request from an NBA front office to take two of the top three players on any team and flip them in exchange for financial flexibility and mid to late future first round draft picks. It’s completely within reason. You think Morey, Pelinka and Presti could pull this off? I’m not apologizing for expecting more from our new General Manager.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 1:01 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

Having an additional $18 million dollars on your cap sheet to play with is possibly the easiest way to acquire picks, prospects, and bad deals.

But I suppose that one might argue that having less flexibility is a better route to success.

Houston managed to create flexibility, and Pelinka & Presti had a ton of room to take bloated deals or sign free agents, as the Lakers and Thunder have done, respectively. You can’t just cite these guys as examples and then disregard their effective strategies.

RORDOG
November 24, 2020 2:27 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I must’ve missed the part in which I ask for an apology from anyone that did not share my opinion.

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 2:41 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I demand an apology from you for wanting my leftover corned beef. I’m willing to take acceptance any time you’re ready.

RORDOG
November 24, 2020 4:10 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Let me get some of that hash

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 4:51 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

This is not working out as I was hoping it would…..

Jman1949
November 24, 2020 5:51 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

comment image

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 11:11 am

Tough to keep up, but this is Atlanta’s depth chart without Bogi as far as I can tell.

PG: Trae (35)/Rondo (13)/Dunn
SG: Huerter(30)/Reddish (15)/Dunn (3)/Mays
SF: Reddish (13)/Hunter (30)/Snell (5)/Hill
PF: Collins (30)/Gallinari (18)/Hunter
C: Capella (28)/Okongwu (20)/Fernando

That’s keeping Huerter, Reddish, and Hunter around their minutes last year. No minutes for Dunn? Only 13 for Rondo? Gallinari is going to get way more than 18 (when he plays). Something has to give there, and there is a trade to be had for one of those 3 young wings and/or possibly Collins if they want Bogi or Hield.

Match, then make a trade.

jay14bay
November 24, 2020 11:27 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I agree with you Gallinari will start. They just paid him 20M per year and he is a good player.

Last edited 1 month ago by jay14bay
AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 11:30 am
Reply to  jay14bay

Yeah, I noted that. There are not enough minutes to go around there. Both at the guard/wing and big positions. Maybe we can get Collins or Capela for Bogi/Hield.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 1:17 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Collins, Heurter for Buddy, Parker

Heart emoji

YoungSuperteam
November 24, 2020 1:29 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

There is absolutely no way Atlanta takes that deal lol

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
November 24, 2020 11:30 am
Reply to  jay14bay

What’s weird is he is more of a stretch 4 these days as opposed to a SF. It really makes me wonder what their plan is for Collins.

MaybeNextYear
November 24, 2020 11:50 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Would you trade Bagley for Collins and a first? They’re basically the same player. You give Atlanta an additional year to figure out how all their pieces fit and also an additional year of team control, and in return you get another chance to add to your young core.

RAP87
November 24, 2020 11:59 am
Reply to  MaybeNextYear

Nope. Collins will certainly ask for a max or atleast a near max contract. I’m just not sure the Kings are willing to spend that kind of money on a player like Collins to pair with Fox.

Last edited 1 month ago by RAP87
Hobby916
November 24, 2020 12:17 pm
Reply to  MaybeNextYear
furious.d
November 24, 2020 12:03 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

But the deal stipulates we can’t trade Bogi to the Hawks for 1 year if we match. So you’d have to be willing to delay our rebuild for another year or be totally sure the Hawks want Buddy as much as they want Bogi. There’s no reason for them to signal that to us, since getting Bogi costs them nothing, while getting Buddy is both more expensive and requires them to send back an asset.

I think you need to have a third team ready to trade for Buddy immediately, or a third team that Bogi would waive his no-trade clause for promising to trade him once he’s past the three month trade restriction.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 12:52 pm
Reply to  furious.d

Yeah they could have a trade lined up with someone else to trade some combination of Huerter/Hunter/Reddish/Collins should they net Bogi for free. My bet would be Collins for filler and a pick.

If they don’t get Bogi, I can see them pursuing Hield.

Either way, I hope we match and don’t just give them yet another asset in their already stocked war chest for free.

kfipp
Admin
November 24, 2020 11:20 am

Fully agree with this.

Good teams don’t let assets walk for nothing and it’s pretty clear Bogi, as an asset and a player, holds value amongst other teams in the league. Aside from that, this seems like a perfectly reasonable number to match, especially for a team that literally cannot sign free agents of commensurate value to commensurate deals.

Looking at how hard half the league was fighting to pick up a shooter this offseason, I think the smart money is retaining Bogi at 18m and trying to move Buddy’s more expensive contract. Atlanta seems like they’ll be in an especially tough spot given the amount of cash they’ll have spent on win-now moves and the moment Bogi is off the market there will no free agent shooting to speak of.

I won’t riot if they decide to leg Bogi walk but I just don’t think it makes sense.

Last edited 1 month ago by kfipp
andy_sims
November 24, 2020 11:30 am
Reply to  kfipp

This is well-argued.

nonstripedzebra
November 24, 2020 11:32 am

I am reposting from a previous thread but I think I let Bogi walk. As many have mentioned its a tough one, with ramifications that are murky on either end. That said when I go down hypotheticals I find narrower options in retention I think.

Is Bogi worth this deal my market standards yes, and is he possibly moveable in a year or twos time, yes. The question I think many though might be under-appreciating is the quality of return to align to our future goals, compared to the outright room. And if him retained, the tightness of our decisions for the next year or two overlapping post the Fox deal and other poor commitments kicking in.

I think contracts for both Bogi and Buddy put you in a untenable restriction that will overlap at least in part with Fox’s max before one or both are moved. The question I return to is, is that attached room worthwhile, and substantially better in extracting an improved return. In time both might fetch assets that boost to building around Fox, but I don’t think that trade off will likely warrant the expenses committed to have that opportunity.

This would be less an issue with Bogi, but 17 million plus isn’t moved with some money coming back beyond expirings or players/assets not aligned with our timeline I suspect. And if you assume as I do either wont be realistically moveable in year one thats a year or two waiting for such a move. All to possibly take back your 10 to 14 million dollar guys, with a late first or flyer for maybe a year less of commitment than Bogi and Buddy, but are in essence salary dumps or not moving the needle. Or for a like for like, making 18 or so who isnt a comforting contract as is, and likely doesn’t move the needle either (Myles Turner comes to mind).

With those factors, the question I return to is compared to that room outright. Not only in roster timeline, cap commitment, but also as an asset in its own right. The space is not as strong but its benefits are immediate and less contingent. And although said players could be traded, is a return worth a likely wait to deal, and that much better than outright room for the Kings goals in getting younger. And this is all under the position that these guys would be moveable within a years time which in itself has ample reasons to doubt.

If thats the case, I think it wiser to be explicit and not tongue tied in these matters. If this team is aligning to fox, free up the cap, run out your young-ins and eat bad hasty signings on your cap solely for future assets. Or put yourself in a cap window where the clear needs can be addressed when the clock for Fox is louder. Deals without the muck of other timeline or present value commitments in exchange. Being more stark with this timetable for Fox, and allowing more options I think likely grant collectively a more accurate haul in time. Or at least one that isn’t all that different than a would be a Bogi/Buddy deal.

I see it the other way too, but to me its thinking the chess board will go one way. Its just a huge amount to juggle for whats likely not all that much richer of a reward. And one that limits some present options in the process.

ArcoThunder
November 24, 2020 12:22 pm

Totally respect your opinion but I strongly disagree.

There is no assumption on whether Bogi is tradable or Buddy is tradable, they simply are. They are both good players on reasonable contracts. If your GM can’t manage offloading the second best player on the team for future assets then he shouldnt have the JOB. Same goes for BUddy who’s the 3rd best player on the roster with an elite skill in the most desired area of basketball. These guys are tradable. Period.

Trading Bogi brings back assets. Trading buddy brings back assets. Letting them both play out their contracts and then leave for nothing brings back nothing. If you are the kings and the odds are already stacked against you because of the Small Market, history of losing and history of shit show leadership then you can not afford to lose your top assets for nothing.

Losing Baze is one thing, you had no control and he’s the #8 or #10 priority on the roster. Losing Giles is one thing, you had no control and hes the #10 or #12 priority on the roster. Losing Len is one thing, you had no control and he’s the #12 or #14 priority on the roster. Bogi is the second best player on the team hands down and you have control. He’s the second best player and it’s not even close. I’d say Buddy is the 3rd best player on the roster. After that you got Barnes and a bunch of unproven young guys with upside plus some low end vets like CoJo. Priority for the future and the building process for a consistent playoff team put’s Bogi somewhere in the middle priority wise because of his age and the FOX timeline. Now you have your second best player locked up under a reasonable contract. What a luxury it would be to now trade your low priority (for the future) second best player for assets 4 days from now, 4 months from now or 4 years from now. With players this good on contracts this reasonable they bring back assets. The risk is minimal because they are so good and so desirable by other teams if made available.

I see absolutely no risk in keeping Bogi and being forced to trade either him or Buddy or both. If I were GM I would be 100% confident that I could bring back value in trades involving both. When I say value I mean value for the purposes I need at the time. At this time, talented youth, upside youth already in the league, future picks and expiring contracts would seem to be the value you want to bring back now. same can be said for the following season. thats 2 years to find two trades that bring back these types of assets. Year three and Bogi is still here? Now maybe you trade him for a starter or the missing piece of the rotation for a playoff push. Maybe you attach him with some second round picks or a late future first protected and that brings you a fringe allstar for a playoff push. You cant do any of those three things above with the cap room you saved in 2020 (by not matching Atalantas bid for Bogi) that was then used on Whiteside and Delavadova.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 12:40 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

There is no assumption on whether Bogi is tradable or Buddy is tradable, they simply are. They are both good players on reasonable contracts. If your GM can’t manage offloading the second best player on the team for future assets then he shouldnt have the JOB.

Ah, so McNair should not bother getting consent from another team, and just force a deal upon them? It’s not as if he’s the President of the United States.

And to say that Bogi & Buddy are tradeable is a waste of keystrokes, because everyone is tradeable. This ongoing insistence that all that McNair needs to do is put it out there that Hield is available, and teams will be falling all over themselves to send back good assets is just silly.

One can only conclude that you may believe that McNair has received a good offer for Hield, and is ignoring it to use as as rationale for letting Bogi walk. No such offer exists. It will eventually, but with eleven hours to go, the only offers for Hield are likely to be crap, because the Kings are over a barrel.

Otis
November 24, 2020 12:47 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

It’s not simply about getting back “good assets”, it’s about getting back young talent or draft picks.

And I don’t believe the Kings are over a barrel with Buddy, they just haven’t seen any offers they really like at this point. If he stays, he plays, ends up top-2 or 3 in the league again in threes, and gets dealt at the deadline.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 1:03 pm
Reply to  Otis

Young talent and draft picks are assets.

Otis
November 24, 2020 1:04 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

wut no way

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 1:20 pm
Reply to  Otis

It’s not simply about getting back “good assets”, it’s about getting back young talent or draft picks.

I’ve tried, and can’t find a way to read this that doesn’t mean that good assets and talent & picks aren’t the same thing.

Otis
November 24, 2020 1:22 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

wait stop, it’s moving too fast for me

nonstripedzebra
November 24, 2020 2:09 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I get your points on a lot of what of what your saying. And I try to check my own bias, relative in often rating the Kings players marginally below many, and often the accurate appraisal.

I guess the point I would bring up is in relation to tradability. More explicitly in relation to Buddy. Just functionally, beyond views on a certain deal, 24.5 million is not easy to move. And to an extent, even though he’s worth that deal w/ Bogi at around 18, without some high midlevels in combination in returns. The point is even in finding deals, our cap restraints aren’t likely to vanish from what a bogi extension puts them at. Of course these things overlap but generally your raising your expenses and in my view not for great values considering these deals are above or at market rate.

I guess the counter is I loved the bucks trade, assumingely something like that could be resuscitated elsewhere. But its also fair to note that same trade wouldn’t be possible at what the contract number ended up at now. Other stuff might be out there, we likely could clear our cap of ill expirings, sooner than where these deals would put us, with a year less of commitment say. That still puts you looking at close to this committed cap well into Fox’s 2nd deals tenure.

The significance of these players to this team is fair, and also something I consistently possibly underrate. That said, Buddy makes close to being the 3rd best player on a 55 win team despite playing for one in the lottery. Simply put he is overpaid for the market, and has major questions in how he would fair in playoff basketball. The larger point in a league with equal financial restrictions, teams don’t sign up for expenses like that willingly, or without machinations of likely seeing bad money dealt in exchange.

The position that these players would be tradable is fair, all players are tradable. But the ability to move such salary isn’t that practical for most or leads to always good returns. With that in mind money, beyond the good bits comes back. Equally moveable, is space to a degree despite not having contingencies let alone affording some leeway in the present, albeit for lower returns.

That said one good deal could put this into a different light. And this is not the place where we should have been making these decisions because they are murky as all hell when they are made at these points. Its what makes both views have merit IMO, because its a crappy place to be.

Last edited 1 month ago by nonstripedzebra
WillyTrill
November 24, 2020 11:39 am

Match if you can get fair value for Buddy before the trade deadline.

If Buddy’s trade value has diminished enough that we can’t get fair value, let Bogi walk and lets get in front of the line for the 2021 draft (I personally like the Jalens [Green & Johsnon])

Otis
November 24, 2020 11:41 am
Reply to  WillyTrill

comment image

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 11:45 am

Good teams don’t let assets walk for nothing because they don’t get pushed into doing dumb decisions that are take it or leave it.

That’s what is actually happening here. The inability to figure out a solution between Bogi and Buddy by Vlade Divac and that FO is creating a match/non match both of which are difficult and ultimately not super desirable positions moving forward.

I don’t think it’s a perfect analogy, but I look at what happened with Otto Porter. Maybe the Wizards were stupid in the way they dealt him, but I doubt they traded him at the top of the market. There just wasn’t a lot out there at that point. And why did the Wizards match? Because you don’t lose an asset for nothing.

Maybe the best comparable is when Gordon Hayward signed an offer sheet with the Hornets and the Jazz matched. And that ended up…..not too poorly for the Jazz as it turned out. Probably had something to do with Donovan Mitchell being alright though.

For me it’s pretty simple. You lock yourself into a roster with no real desirable solution and no trade that helps you improve to be likely on the horizon. Said it a few times now but I think the best case scenario was a S&T and the worst case was a match/non match. And here we are.

While I don’t want to lose Bogi for nothing, I don’t want to lock in a roster that doesn’t even have pieces like Bazemore, Len and Giles. If you were going to run this roster back, run it back for chrissakes. You don’t let those guys walk but decide “we can’t lose Bogi for nothing.” Role players are replacable, yes, and I’m not arguing those guys aren’t. But what’s the upside of this roster with Bogi exactly?

My guess is Vivek is looking at the fan’s reaction, understandable under the circumstances, and you have Monte with his vision. Since there likely isn’t much of a trade that is worth considering (why would there be) for Hield or Barnes, you at least do have the luxury of them playing actual minutes for you and not missing heavy chunks of games. They just aren’t as popular with the fanbase as Bogi is. But they’re arguably more effective. Therefore you’re probably at an impasse within the organization which is why the Sam Amick post came out late Sunday night. And plus you have the reality of you have several ‘business’ days to match.

So here we are. I think the FO is willing to let Bogi go to improve the roster through the draft in 2021, trades that may or may not be there, and a lot of cap space in 2021. Versus holding onto Bogi because “good” franchises don’t let assets walk for nothing and you make a lot of people happy. Until they see the trade that comes that pisses them off just as much as it would have pissed them off seeing Bogi walk without compensation.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Welcome to Sacramento Monte! Home of the trees, land of a worn out pissed off fanbase! Hope you’re having fun my man!

RORDOG
November 24, 2020 12:31 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Speaking of 2021, Vicenie just came out with a new mock draft of sorts. One thing that caught my eye is he said it’s “a draft worth tanking for” with as many as 5 players who would all have gone #1 in this draft. It’s not a perfect analogy, but letting Bogi walk reminds me a little of trading Cousins to help maximize the chance of keeping their pick that year. If I’m McNair I’m more than willing to take the L on the Bogi deal if it means it puts me in a better position to obtain a potentially franchise altering talent in the draft.

The article also reminded me that Covid deprived me of getting to watch a bunch of these guys on the G League Ignite squad in Walnut Creek. That’s, as they say, a bummer man.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 12:39 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

So then you match, and you tell Bogi we are playing for a draft spot. We’ll find suitors but you have to work with us. Kings have the leverage here to get some assets for him (potentially young players/picks that fit a timeline with our young core)… all they have to do is match the very reasonable contract.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 12:43 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

“Hey, pal, we understand that you’re a competitive guy, and have won championships on your national team, but we’d like to lock you down for the next four years, at least two of which will struggle to win thirty-five games. We cool?”

Enticing stuff.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 1:36 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

More like, “We value your services, and don’t want to lose you for nothing. We will find a situation that works if you are not happy here, and you can help make that happen.”

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 3:16 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Given that the team tried to trade him to a legit title contender, and he blew it up, I don’t think he’s likely to be as compliant as you suggest as far as what would happen next.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 3:54 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

How do we know he wasn’t on board with the MIL trade? I mean, hard to imagine a better fit for Bogi. It sounds like a better offer just came along.

He shouldn’t harbor any resentment for that, and regardless it’s not his decision. He’s RFA.

richie88
November 24, 2020 6:02 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Since he’s getting his $ w/this new contract, it’s more likely he’d be amenable to a trade to a good team.

RORDOG
November 24, 2020 12:47 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I don’t think that’s feasible. If you retain him then you play him.

We also don’t know if they can get those young players and picks without sacrificing future cap space. That’s the other part of the equation. In certain scenarios $18 million in cap space may be more value than Bogi’s contract.

AirmaxPG
November 24, 2020 1:34 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Oh we’re going to play him (if we don’t trade him first).

I would like to trade him though, and I think the return for Bogi would be higher than the cap space (so I guess we just disagree there). With Bogi, we could possibly net a prospect or two (like with MIL).

With cap space, you might net a pick or prospect, but you will be most likely taking on a bad, long-term contract in addition.

Otis
November 24, 2020 12:42 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

if it means it puts me in a better position to obtain a potentially franchise altering talent in the draft.

comment image

Hobby916
November 24, 2020 12:44 pm
Reply to  Otis

Bagley altered the franchise, that’s for sure

AmateurNerd
November 24, 2020 3:24 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

Actually…
Kings’ Western Conference standing, 5 years pre-Bagley: 13th, 13th, 10th, 12th, 12th
Kings’ Western Conference standing, 2 years of Bagley: 9th, 12th

I’d argue Bagley hasn’t altered a damn thing!

Last edited 1 month ago by AmateurNerd
RORDOG
November 24, 2020 12:49 pm
Reply to  Otis

I did say it reminded me of the Cousins era!

Otis
November 24, 2020 12:51 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I don’t mind the idea of really tanking, but if we really would have wanted to get in position for next year’s draft, we’d deal Fox.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 1:05 pm
Reply to  Otis

Oh, don’t worry. With or without Fox, the Kings will have very good odds at a high-level pick.

Otis
November 24, 2020 1:11 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Then similarly, we should have very good odds at a high-level pick with or without Bogi?

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 1:21 pm
Reply to  Otis

Better odds without him, of course.

I’m glad that you’re seeing it my way.

Otis
November 24, 2020 1:22 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

And without Fox as well.

Whew, common ground!

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 2:25 pm
Reply to  Otis

I knew you guys could do it!

markdog333
November 24, 2020 2:12 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Should have kept Vlade. He excels at the draft lottery. The draft, not so much. But the draft lottery, yes.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 3:16 pm
Reply to  markdog333

Well, he’s had a lot of practice.

NotAlwaysLogic
November 24, 2020 12:51 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

What is the status of college basketball this year? Are there even going to be games to evaluate the draft talent? Shortened season with no fans? I think they are still getting a low pick this year even with Bogi. Maybe Bogi adds 4 or 5 wins to their total? Maybe? NBA doesn’t seem to want to reward tanking these days anyways.

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 12:52 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Yeah, I just read the Vecenie mock after you linked it. I have no idea what any of it means, but his point is the NBA guru types think there’s a ton of wings…..which is very interesting on a lot of fronts.

I like Harrison Barnes much better as a small ball 4, and I agree with a lot of people that Marvin Bagley is probably a 5 in today’s league. That alone gives you a ton of possibility if you draft a high upside wing like Cade Cunningham for instance.

Stupid COVID depriving you of amateur scouting opportunites. Give it the knuckle paw for me, Bratz!

RORDOG
November 24, 2020 4:22 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I got a scouting itch that needs to be scratched

richie88
November 24, 2020 6:16 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

To me, it means that everyone in the 7 except Mobley sounds exciting & everyone in the top 10 sounds like they’re at least interesting.

Adamsite
Nostradumbass 14
Nostradumbass 14
November 24, 2020 2:13 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

If that draft is as good as advertised, I don’t think anyone is going to be trading away next years pick attached to bad deals. From that, there really is no point in letting Bogi walk in hopes of freeing up space to get a pick in exchange for cap space. Hell, the Kings may not even get a pick for a Buddy or Bogi trade.

Bbmuteman
November 24, 2020 1:13 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I had a long post similar to this started yesterday, but you’ve summarized my thoughts much more succinctly regarding the kings and bogi.

Also, I want the two zhaire’s. One the waived and stretched sg, and the 2021 sf next year.

RAP87
November 24, 2020 11:55 am

I’d still think Monte is going to match Bogi’s contract. Sooner or later Buddy is going to get traded. It’s not a matter of if but when he gets traded. It might not be right now but down the lane he will be. I assume his value and contract would be much more attractive next season (2021-22) when the cap increases and Buddy’s contract decreases.

But if Mcnair also decides to part ways with Bogi and not match I’ll be fine with it as well.

GFunkClassic
November 24, 2020 11:57 am

Is Atlanta a team on the ascension? I’m not seeing it. I don’t think you can sign Bogi here. We’d have too much tied up in our SG’s and they’re just not that good. They’re not much of an asset if we can’t find trading partners in the marketplace.

Last edited 1 month ago by GFunkClassic
1951
November 24, 2020 12:15 pm

Monte: Mr. West,
comment image

Last edited 1 month ago by 1951
RikSmits
November 24, 2020 12:23 pm

Am I the only one surprised in the amount of deals and money shelled out this off-season, in what should have been a down year for corona-hurt and cash-strapped franchises?

If Monte is confident in his ability to read the market and making deals he should match and trust in his ability to get return for Bogi and/or Buddy once things get better.

The only reasons for him not to match are doubts that Buddy/Bogi will behave or that Luke can’t showcase them or – worst scenario – ownership meddling.

Last edited 1 month ago by RikSmits
Hobby916
November 24, 2020 12:28 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I was also surprised by the money being thrown around for some guys. Money must not be much of an issue I guess. Like Detroit has not shot at anything and they spent a lot, same with the Hornets. Luckily the Kings have not thrown money at anyone other than Fox.

NotAlwaysLogic
November 24, 2020 1:00 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

It makes you wonder if they have some sort of new clause in the contracts where owner’s can get out of them due to financial loss from the pandemic and no fans. Joe Lacob said it “there is no NBA if we go 2 – 3 years without fans”. Don’t see how these owner’s could still be making these multi-year financial commitments during a pandemic with an unknown end.

andy_sims
November 24, 2020 1:09 pm
Reply to  NotAlwaysLogic

I doubt the union would let owners jam an escape clause like that into contracts. I’m guessing that there’s a standard clause in deals that may allow owners to prorate salaries if less games are played due to something like Covid cancelling a ton of games (your acts of dog, and so forth), but I really don’t know.

I think the owners know that the players aren’t offering discounts, and if there’s been any hesitancy to offer huge deals, I haven’t noticed. As ever, I could hardly care less if a group of billionaires takes a financial hit.

Kingsguru21
November 24, 2020 3:48 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

If I’m being honest Rik, I’m not remotely surprised. NBA teams will always cry poor in negotiations and act otherwise in actuality.

Nica4two
November 24, 2020 12:32 pm

Hey guys,

First post on Kings Herald! I’ve been out of touch the Kings more so than ever over this last season, so forgive the vague question: but why are we so fixated on moving Buddy and not Harrison Barnes? Perhaps it’s more subjective, but I feel like he’s more of an expendable, weaker (and perhaps tradable?) asset than Buddy. I’m sure much of this has to do with lack of SF/PF depth, but just curious what your thoughts are.

Hobby916
November 24, 2020 12:35 pm
Reply to  Nica4two

I think it has to do with having too many SGs on the roster, and wanting to open up minutes for Haliburton and Ramsey. Barnes needs to go too

1951