Last season, De’Aaron Fox cemented himself as an elite finisher around the rim. He converted an absurd 69 percent of his attempts at the rim last season, per Cleaning The Glass, and was able to get that spot fairly often. This year, we’ve seen teams put more effort into denying Fox that access in transition and Sacramento’s less-than-ideal spacing around him makes getting to the rim in the halfcourt setting a real challenge. As a result, we’ve seen Fox opt for the mid-range jumper at a career-high rate.
Opposing defenses are more than happy to go under high screens when covering Fox and live with his underwhelming three-point shot. But, when Fox is already within the arc when the screen is set, he’s able to punish that defensive coverage by utilizing the mid-range pull-up jumper we’ve seen him grow more and more comfortable with. Any leading scorer has got to be able to keep defenses honest by being a threat from multiple areas on the floor. The fastest player in the league has no issues getting his defender on their heels when driving to the basket, and now we’re starting to see him rise up to capitalize on their backward momentum.
“He’s just been really aggressive offensively in what he’s trying to do as far as getting the ball to the basket,” Alvin Gentry said about Fox after the loss in Chicago. “He’s been really good with his mid-range shots and even his three-point shots when they’ve gone under defensively.”
It’s all about keeping the defense guessing. If they hesitate for even a moment while concerned about Fox pulling up from 11 feet, he’s blowing by them. 52 percent of De’Aaron Fox’s shot attempts are coming from the mid-range, per Cleaning The Glass, which is a ten percent increase from last season. And, he’s converted 45 percent of those shots – which isn’t exactly a mind-blowing number, but it’s more than respectable.
“I think the shots that he’s shooting are very good shots,” Gentry said when I asked him about Fox’s increase in mid-range attempts. “He’s getting to his spot and getting up. So, I don’t have a problem with those.”
Fox’s “spot” feels like it’s right around the elbow and his growing synergy and chemistry with Domantas Sabonis in the pick-and-roll should present those opportunities even more often as the year progresses. Take a look at all the mid-range buckets we’ve seen from the Kings’ max point-guard in just the last three showings.
He’s looked rejuvenated and returned to form as of late, scoring 25 or more points in each of the five games he’s played since returning from a sore ankle. In Fox’s last 15 games played, he’s averaged an impressive 25.2 points and 5.2 assists while converting an average of 50.2 percent of his 19.0 field goal attempts per game. 7.4 of those 19 have been mid-range pull-ups and he’s converted 44.2 percent of those looks.
That stretch is a slight jump from his season average of 6.2 mid-range pull-ups per game with a 46.9 percent conversion rate. DeMar DeRozan has claimed the crown as the undeniable king of the mid-range this season, which the Kings felt the effectiveness of in their last game prior to the All-Star Break. Fox and DeRozan are two of just six NBA players under 6’7” averaging six or more of those shots per game. The other four are Devin Booker, Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray, and Chris Paul — that’s some damn good company. DeRozan and Paul are the only two who possess a higher percentage this season than Fox’s 46.9 percent.
“I think having the in-between game is pretty important, the way a lot of teams guard pick-and-roll, having drop (coverages),” Fox said post-game in Chicago. “Going up and getting into a seven-footer night-in and night-out, that’s a hard thing to do. So, just being able to pull up and have floater is something that I think all guards should have.”
As I mentioned, we’ve seen Sacramento starting the pick-and-roll with Fox inside the arc more often as of late, making going under that much riskier of an option for the opposition. It would, obviously, be ideal if Fox eventually developed into an average or above-average three-point shooter on significant volume, but knocking down the mid-range at this current efficiency and volume is enough to avoid his game being fully reliant on getting to the rim or the foul line. And the threat of him pulling the mid-range should allow more opportunities for Fox to actually get to the rim/line, which is always going to be his most optimal outcome. But, as Fox pointed out, it also takes its toll physically.
Maybe surrounding the duo of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox with threatening shooters from beyond the arc will lessen Fox’s reliance on the mid-range, but expect to be seeing a decent amount of those pull-ups from the point guard in these final 22 games. And, it seems like Fox, Gentry, and the entire team is understandably more than comfortable with De’Aaron Fox’s “spot” being that mid-range pull up.
Insightful analysis as always, Brendan. We’ll see how the Ox and the Fox coexist within the arc for the remainder of the season, it’s definitely a sort of zag against the rest of the league’s zigging for max spacing and shooting.
Also seems Fox and his team have gotten pretty good at crypto scams after raking in over a million bucks in a failed NFT venture.
Fox promised to send anyone who purchased a certain amount of NFTs a signed jersey lol, what a clown and total douche move.
PnR game is Fox and Ox all day, everyday. That should be the game plan for Gentry. Those two could really tear teams up with their efficiency and style of play in side the arc. Now Monte’s job is to get some reliable shooters this offseason. Someone with a game like Barnes could really make this offense tick. Keegan Murray out of Iowa may be that kind of guy, but I could also see him rising on draft boards and be out of the Kings reach, if they keep going for this silly play-in thing.
Just a far off trade idea. Does anyone have an idea how we could aguire OG Ahunoby without giving up an arm and leg to do so. I really like him and at 24 he would be in our core ages. He averaged over 17 points, 5 redounds, 2 assists and is a lock down defender. Just wondering.
I’m guessing that would be hard because our best realistic assets are Barnes and future picks. Our goal would be to try and add OG with Barnes on the wing, and Toronto is solidly built to try and go for it now so they likely aren’t interested in salary filler and picks.
Thanks. Now i will ask the same questions about PJ Washington. I know the Hornets want an upgrade at center and Holmes could be the guy. PJ can score and is really improving as a defender. I like him at age 23 and can play even the center position if you were going with a small lineup. Just asking.
Fox and Ox is a nice combo, and maybe Barnes if he’s on that game, but there’s a severe drop off in scoring after those three. If any one of those three has an off night, then we’re relying on guys like Holiday, DDV, Davion, and others to pick up the slack. Tough chore on a nightly basis.
So yes, more reliable shooters is a must. 100%
I’m one of those people that hates fadeaway shots in general, because so damned many of them clang front-iron, but Fox’s added strength seems to have greatly helped him in that regard.
I still don’t love them when anyone takes them much beyond 6-7 feet, but Fox’s ability to shake free reduces the need for him to be moving away from the hoop when he shoots. And if Sabonis is going to be in the paint most of the time, at least he sets great screens for his teammates.
A fadeaway is just a type of shot, Andy. If it evokes such strong emotions as hate, maybe you should step away and find another hobby.
This isn’t healthy.
I, and my severe emotional problems, have decided to stick around, since I have so much company.
Sims, sometimes I have this idea that you are the Mark Twain of the TKH comment section. This comment seems to confirm my crazy idea. Well done.
The coldest winter I ever spent was perusing a comment section where Andy Sims was the dominant commenter.
Fox is shooting more pull up jumpers than fade aways this season in those mid-range situations, IMO.
In regards to Bones setting great screens, I believe this can help a ton in the 3 pt. percentage as well, specifically for Fox who kinda needs clean looks to be efficient from beyond the arc.
I don’t normally pay a ton of attention to shooting mechanics (I’m not a shooting coach), but I have noticed recently just how slow De’Aaron’s release is. I think that makes it easier to contest his longer shots especially if they are step back’s and stop n pop 3’s.
But I think spot up shots from 3 are a different animal, and he seems a lot more comfortable hitting those.
good analysis. seems like it’s his natural game to shoot from as close as possible to the basket. it was weird seeing him play last year when his shot selection changed to a modern analytics approach of 3s and layups. he appeared less assertive. this shot selection with more mid range shots seems more like his game. And if you step back and think about it, when in the world has an open 10-12 footer ever been a bad shot for a guard?
See! Fox is improving not digressing. He even shows signs of improving his defense. Does he have confidence in his team. Just go back and see the play he made to Metu to win the game. He could have tried to get to the rim to tie the game but he didn’t. Go Fox.
Is that you Vivek?
Is that you Rainman?
If you don’t like that you don’t like Kings Herald comment section…!
Oh, boy!!!
Here is Fox’s shot chart just showing basic zones (corners, above the break 3, mid-range, and paint), and you can see he is performing best compared to league average in mid-range.
Here is a more detailed version with other smaller zones:
This second one frankly surprised me as I didn’t remember Fox taking so many FGAs from the short corners. Perhaps these are more in the nature of floater attempts. We can see from the right elbow he has done well, but in other areas he is near league average.
One other thing is just simple math. He shoots 46.2% from overall mid-range scoring two points obviously. To replicate that production from a three-point shot, a player would need to hit just 30.8% of his threes (46.2% * 2 points = .924 points per shot / 3 pointer = 30.8% from three to replicate production).
I think there is value in crunch time and the playoffs to having a good player able to create or get a good mid-range look when the threes and the rim are being aggressively guarded. Hopefully, Fox can get his three pointer back to last year’s form while maintaining and building on his mid-range ability. Get some good three&D players at SG/SF/PF and we’d be doing well.
A made 2pt has a hard to quantify indirect value not reflected by just comparing 2pt% and 3pt% of requiring the other team to inbound the ball. ORB may also be more likely on a missed 2pt than a missed 3pt (shooter more likely in area to rebound own shot).
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