Coming into this season, we heard a lot about Keegan Murray’s offseason work – he’s looking to create his own shot; the hints that the goal is for him to be that third option behind De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. As the season has gone on, we see that another goal is for Keegan to be more of a defensive stopper. These new components have already altered Murray’s game quite a bit compared to his rookie year, and despite his three-point field goal percentage dropping, it is a good thing.
Let’s start with where he is shooting the ball. In his first season, Murray was a sniper from three, setting the record for three pointers by a rookie. His shot chart, according to Cleaning The Glass, shows he didn’t deviate much offensively from letting the offense find him for three, aside from the baskets he got around the rim.
This season, Murray is taking make more midrange shots and around the basket:
In fact, his mid-range shots have increased by 14% and his shots from three have decreased by 8%.
On Friday, in the third quarter against the Phoenix Suns, Murray found himself isolated in the corner against his defender. Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes were in the area and both ready to receive the ball. Murray called them off and they gave him room. Murray went to a nifty behind the back dribble into a fadeaway jumper just off the right side of the key. Bucket.
Later in the third, Murray received the ball on the opposite corner. His defender immediately lunged at him to defend a three. Murray dribbled forward and rose up for an easy midrange jumper. (With Devin Booker standing and watching in front of him, by the way.)
In Monday night’s win over the Brooklyn Nets….
These are seasoned veteran midrange moves.
This season, the amount of Murray’s made shots that were a result of an assist has dropped by 6%, which is likely a result of him creating his own offense more. What is interesting is his mid-range field goal percentage is up 10% while his three-point percentage is down 9%. (He is shooting 32% from three, a drop from 41% last season.) His overall field goal percentage also has dropped 4%. Part of what made the Kings offense so deadly last season was Murray’s ability to take and make open threes, which was on display Monday against the Brooklyn Nets. This season in general though, Murray is trying to create more offense on his own.
The drop in his three point field goal percentage, however, isn’t hurting the Kings offense all that much considering the team is 13-8 and is a +3.1 in efficiency differential with Murray on the floor. (Which is good for 8 wins, according to Cleaning The Glass.) Murray is averaging 13.6 points per game, up from 12.2 points per game last season, on 2.6 more shots per game, not to mention he is averaging 1 more rebound per game this season. His positive impact is coming on both sides of the ball now. He is causing opponents to score 5 less points per 100 possessions (80th percentile), and is in the 77th percentile for turnover% on defense. He is averaging 1.1 steals per game, and we have seen how he has the size and lateral speed to be able to guard good ball handlers in the league.
So, the Kings coaching staff appears to be striving to make Murray more of a well-rounded shooter with a defensive mindset; to be more than a spot-up three point shooter, and even more than a three-and-D player. They want him to improve his defense while expanding his offensive toolbox by adding the midrange and putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim.
And the kid can get to the rim.
Early in the first quarter against the Suns, Murray received a pass to the corner from De’Aaron Fox, who was at the midcourt line. When Murray got the ball, he had no intentions of rising for the three, he immediately put the ball on the floor and drove past the defender for a dunk.
Then toward the end of the Nets game, Murray sent Brooklyn home with this.
Murray proved throughout last season that he is extremely coachable and able to learn quickly. This season’s large shift in his overall game might take a little longer, but it is already developing quite nicely. Being more of a complete player on offense and defense requires a lot more thinking on the floor and more physical demand. This could be part of the reason why his three point percentage has dropped, mixed with more of those threes coming off shot creation. This goal is good for Murray and the Kings though. If he is going to be a cornerstone of the franchise over the next several years, he will need to be more than a three-point specialist, and these last two games have been good examples of how he is on his way to that.
This is teaching him how to be a better overall player while the Kings are still winning. That is a win-win.
Great analysis. He is such a likable guy, very humble.
I think as the effort involved in playing that kind of defense becomes more natural for him, the shooting will improve. Murray will find ways to conserve his energy at the right moments so that he’ll have more when he needs it. His progress has really been amazing, and I’ll credit Mike Brown and his coaches for pushing the right buttons.
And if Keegan can make a reasonable percentage of those 8-14 foot fadeaways, I don’t know what defenses will be able to do about it.
Another great Blake write up!
The comps when Keegan was drafted were All-Star Khris Middleton and lately there have been some Paul George allusions.
though when I Google up on the 2022 Draft this is typically what I find
Murray is a do-it-all wing with practically no holes in his game. On a scale of 1-10, he does everything at around an 8 or a 9. He is the kind of no-nonsense, versatile forward that every team desperately craves to help fill out its roster. Murray stuffed every column on the stat sheet for the University of Iowa and finished fourth in the nation with 23.5 points per game. However, he is significantly older than most prospects in this range (turns 22 in August) and will come into the NBA with less upside. He is also a bit of a late bloomer and we need to see if his 3-point percentage is real (nearly 40% as a sophomore after shooting only 30% from 3 as a freshman). His handle can also get a bit loose if he is trying to create his own shot. He will bring a great deal of maturity and positional versatility for the Sacramento Kings, but he doesn’t have anywhere near the upside of Jaden Ivey.
And there are comps for Obi Toppin, Pascal Siakam (Siakam would be a great outcome as well – I hadn’t realized he was also 6’8″. I don’t see it, but what do I know?)
I agree with andy_sims – his progress is much to do with work ethic and determination by Keegan but also the development work done by Coach Brown and his staff.
The future is bright for Keegan… or is that Kris?
Well done Keegan.
Your lack of smiles makes me smile. Your effort on D makes me relax. Your power jams over multiple defenders shine nearly as bright as the beam.
Ready for that 45point outburst from you soon.
Sincerely,
Kings fan Baker
Good analysis.
would like to see the floater more, the go to the post more and the mid-range jump shot across the key. Last year, he got more 3’s from the DHO than this year.
An increase to 13.6 from 12.2 is good but not good enough. Want the average to be 15-16.
and he gets blocked too often. Last night, had a chippie at the rim and instead of powering it down, it was blocked by Claxton.
a scoring spurt from now until the end would be great.
Agree with you about throwing weak shit at the basket. Just crush it, Keegs, get fouled, or both. Take that free money.
Dang…..give the kid some room to grow. He is incorporating a bunch of new skills into his game. If your critique is right on and he is still struggling with these issues at the end of the season then we’ll all say his sophomore season was less than expected and you were right. If I was a betting man I would have no problem putting down $100 that this won’t be the case and that he will add and master these issues and that the early season critiques will be long forgotten.
Great analysis. Games like Monday from Keegan show a high ceiling. He was so aggressive and efficient, and even had a little fun in the postgame presser. Perfect complement to the vets both on the floor and in the locker room.
Awesome stuff, Blake. The growth of Keegan’s game is far more than I had anticipated. I’m not concerned about his outside shooting. That’s a skill that doesn’t diminish. He’ll be fine. The fact that his game is growing in leaps and bounds elsewhere, especially defense, is all that matters.
The kid is for real.
Coming into the league I for sure saw him as a 4 but the end of last season up until now has convinced me that he’s more of a big SF than a stretch 4. Shoot my Danny Granger comp is now changing. If that handle keeps improving he could convince me that he’s approaching PG13 territory
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