We continue our 2021 NBA Draft previews by taking a look at Baylor guard Davion Mitchell and Gonzaga sharpshooter Corey Kispert.
Mitchell, a 6’1 combo guard is coming off an NCAA championship run with Baylor and averaged 14.0 points, 5.5 assists, 2.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 2.4 turnovers a game while shooting 51.1% from the field, 44.7% from three, and 64.1% from the free throw line. Mitchell is nearly unarguably the best POA defenders in the draft class and was the heart of one of college basketball’s best squads in recent memory. Still, question marks about how real his shooting ability is, as well as his upside (he will be 23 years old come the start of the 2021-22 season) keep him outside of both of our lottery rankings.
Kispert is a 6’7 forward who spent all four years at Gonzaga, averaging 18.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.3 turnovers while shooting 52.9% from the field, 44% from three, and 87.8% from the free throw line. Kispert is arguably the classes best three point shooter, with elite touch and range and absolutely bonkers efficiencies from everywhere on the floor (that may somewhat be impacted by the insane depth of this year’s Gonzaga’s squad). While he’s a fault versatile offensive player and a capable team defender, we have concerns about his individual one-on-one defensive ability, a fear that was exasperated during the Baylor/Gonzaga championship game when Mitchell and teammates Jared Butler both went at Kispert with abandon.
In this episode we discuss:
- Considering upside verses more obvious prospects
- Mitchell’s defense, and if his size somewhat limits that appeal of his game
- Mitchell’s comparison to other breakout seniors in recent drafts
- Kispert’s offense versatility and defensive limitations
- Which prospect we prefer, and why we’re not going to have either that high for Sacramento
- Our thoughts on the Marvin Bagley LikeGate
Would you select either Mitchell or Kispert for the Kings? Let us know in the comments!
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I’m not preferring either overall for us but between the two it’s got to be Kispert, I don’t see how Mitchell gets pt on this roster next year barring injury to the top five guards
no on both- Mitchell is redundant. Kispert is undersized for a SF, poor defensively and there are too many others available at 9.
I would say ‘no’ to both. Mitchell’s height (6’1″) is concerning, as well as his free throw percentage (64.1%) which I feel is low for a combo guard. As for Kispert, all I needed to hear was “defensive limitations”. We already drafted a player known for defensive limitations (Bagley) and look how far that has gotten us.
Kispert is a MUCH better team defender than Bagley, just not a defensive specialist. His offensive game is legitimately more well rounded.
He wouldn’t be a bad pick, just think there are better ones at #9.
If we got a 12-15 and Kispert was there I think he’d be a great pick that could help THIS year and beyond as a backup SF/small ball 4
Neither thanks.
As a side note, after putting up some eye-opening athletic numbers as the combine, I’ll restate my opinion that I do t know why you would take Kispert in the teens when you can draft a guy like Weiskamp in the late 2nd.
No on Mitchell for fit and no on Kispert being a reach at #9, but both will be good players respectively.
I gotta say I’m falling for Franz Wagner more and more. Think of his role as a do everything player and then as a ball five in crunch time. His ability to defend guards on a switch is nice and his jumper looks like it’s gonna get even better with reps. Sadly, we might be a few spots too late.
Hard pass on Krispert Kreme and Not Donovan Mitchell.
I snorted in my tea at Krispert Kreme
Neither was Donavan prior to draft ! Davion has special quicks and strength !
Of all of the prospects in this tier, these are the two names I would be most disappointed in the Kings selecting. Not sure why we need to draft a 6 foot point guard who was an upperclassman when we already have two point guards on the roster. Unless you feel really strongly that he’s a starting caliber point guard, I don’t get why we would spend a lottery pick on a back up.
As for Kispert, I think we can find similar types of plates through free agency or trades.
Kings need legit stars at whatever size and position ! Mitchell could be one !
Measurements can be meaningless, but I think that Donovan Mitchell has a freakish 6-10 wingspan and Davion is closer to 6-5. I’ve also seen comps to Marcus Smart (6-9 wingspan).
I think wingspan is important, but helps to have broad shoulders and enough weight/strength to absorb contact on both sides of the ball. Also, rule of thumb for a foul on a primary defender is that the offensive player needs to get their shoulder outside of the defender’s shoulder, so a broader frame can help avoid fouls compared to just having the long arms.
And agree, Mitchell clearly had the tools to defend SGs when he came out of school (one reason people talked about how we could pair him with Fox, whereas someone like Monk or Kennard would have been more difficult) even if he had combo guard height.
Davion I think will struggle with that a bit more, especially if he is closer to a finished product physically at age 23 than Donovan was at 20.
A more apt physical comparison could be Fred VanVleet. 6’0″ with a 6’1.5″ wingspan and an older player coming out. Davion being bigger and quicker laterally along with the defense ability he’s shown gives me confidence in that side of the ball translating.
And Mike Conley.
I don’t want Kispert, yet I have him pegged as the guy that winds up being better than at least half of the guys drafted ahead of him.
This can be true and I’d still rather the Kings gamble on other wings/forwards.
Loving these podcasts btw. Can’t wait for Ziaire and Josh, those are my two guys after Franz. Ziaire more than Giddey.
Definitely a gamble but his scoring potential on this team that needs another pure scorer and how yall discuss all the off court stuff at Stanford he dealt with is gonna be a must listen.
Sengun, Ziaire, Josh Christopher, BJ Boston, Kessler Edwards, Tre Mann.
If the Kings can somehow get an additional pick or trade the 9th for multiple first (looking at NY) and get 2 of the above, I would be very happy.
What is with the Ziaire love? I truly don’t get it. I understand that he has the same frame as a KD/Brandon Ingram type, but the distinct difference being that those two are actually good at basketball and dominated the college level. There are probs 30-40 guys in this draft I’d take before him.
I know what you are saying, as I have said similar, how can you draft a guy at #9 with an 11 PER and 37% FGs?
I don’t think there is “love” regarding Ziaire, just intrigue. I hear he is a legit 6’10. And he has a nice shot motion with perfect arc. He also has a nice midrange game and footwork, unlike a guy like Gisbert, who when you run him off the 3 point line, he is useless.
There is a vision for him as a player who can use his height and mobility to get almost any shot he wants, getting clean looks, and using his footwork and slenderness to snake through the defense. This is what is compelling about him. And length to harass on defense.
Also, I guess the Standford offense was not conducive to Ziaire or any player on that team and he had some personal issues that affected his play.
Obviously he needs to get seriously stronger and that could have a transformative effect on his game. Substantial strength increase and better system and suddenly you have an all-new player.
There are a number of popular names I have eliminated from contention from the #9 pick, whether they fall or not.
> Kispert
> Josh Giddy
> Scotty Barnes
> Franz Wagner
> Moses Moody
> Jonathon Kuminga
We are not drafting any of these guys. McGenius knows better than to waste his best asset on any of these pretenders. But I cannot quite put Ziaiare on this list of rejects. He is a longshot but I am not totally ready to exclude him.
On Kuminga, I was high on him off first impression. But the more I see of him, the less I like of him. In particular, his shot selection is trash. And here is the major thing. You are betting on a 50-100% improvement to channel the athleticism and size intot a proficient player. You are betting on personal and professional growth.
And let’s just say Kuminga after listening to him interview is not the sharpest tool in the shed. He does not have the congitive processing power a la a Ben McLemore or Willie Cauley Stein. The elevator does not go to the top floor.
The lights are on but no one is home!
Ty by contrast has an astute approach to the game and addressed his shot making ability off the catch and bounce before his rookie season. These are the type of guys you want to bet on, talent plus potential for significant growth. Maybe Kuminga will put it together, but it is not a bet I would want to make.
So the player the Kings pick will be among this group:
> Kai Jones
> Isaiah “Unicorn” Jackson
> Alphren Sengun
> Zaiare Williams
> Kessler Edwards
> Davion Mitchell
> Keon Johnson
I am throwing the last two Gs into the mix just in the event we swing some sort of deal that creates an opening in our backcourt and we add another pick. Mitchell and Johnson are going to be good players and I think we would like to have them if it coincides with draft day trades and other roster moves.
But barring a trade or not, the leading candidate to be the next King by my analysis is the Unicorn.
I would hope that Edwards drops to second round. Tre Mann late first. BJB under performs. JC- possible- my hopes for second round are JT Thor, Bones Hyland, Weiskamp or Sims. and Preston is interesting. Edwards might be a cheap Thybulle.
Agreed.
That’s no fun.
More childish insults please!
agree- gamble on one of the others.
Kings need a home run- these guys are ok but just ok. It is just that the potential for others is better: Sengun, Moody, Bouknight, Wagner, K. Johnson and J. Johnson all better. So much depends on duds- do they trade? do they go help/now? go for potential? and depends on Orlando- this is their second pick- what do they do with the first? do they want to double down on wings or wing + big ( Sengun) ?
When do we get to vote on which player we would have taken off our big board had the Kings not traded the pick?
Watch their interviews in the combine coverage. Both are very smart, likable, articulate guys who will raise the pathetic IQ of this team. Neither are my first choice, but I wouldn’t hate either one.
There’s only one guy To me: Jalen Johnson.
I know his run at Duke was short. He got injured after 13 games and didn’t come back. I think a lot of that had to with his injury. He’s got an NBA body, he would slide right into the 3 for the Kings, and he would contribute immediately. Teams are going to pass on him. Similar to how teams passed in MIchael Porter Jr.(Inc the Kings) I think the kid will be a special talent. He’s far from a finished product. Especially shooting. Even though, he has a solid 3pt percentage. Kings don’t need anymore guards. We’re loaded. This team hasn’t had an impact 3 in 16 years. The Kings need to take a chance in this Kid. Now, whether they develop him properly of not is another story.
Funny¦Jalen Johnson is literally the one guy that scares me the most. He looks stiff and clunky to me. I think covering traditional 3s would be real challenge. Feels like a more pure 4 or small 5. Doesn’t seem like a lot of touch so the shooting potential or lack there of is concerning. 3pt % really small sample.
I’d rather Moody, Barnes, Wagner etc.
Yeah, I’m concerned about how much he loves, or even likes playing basketball. He’s also quit on IMG Academy when he was in HS. The past 2 levels of basketball has shown him quit on the team. Does anyone think he gives it his all for this team?
I have been watching various scouting reports on Jalen Johnson. I see a guy that is too slow to play the 3, and not physical enough to play the 4. His shooting will be the swing factor on his value as a player. He hits 35-38% from 3, then he would be okay. Anything lower than that and he will be in trouble.
Watching a bit on Johnson has cooled me on him as well.
Wagner just looks like he plays within himself and takes pride in his defense and what he knows he does well. Obviously well-coached at Michigan too.
Kispert shoots 44% from 3. Wagner shoots 34%. Massive disparity.
Those are true. Though I wasn’t disputing their shooting at all so idk why it’s brought up.
Kispert is a shooter, Wagner does everything and is a better prospect.
Because I wouldn’t waste a top ten pick on a wing who can’t stretch a defense is why. Wagner doesn’t do everything, and I think he will get overwhelmed in the NBA when they sag on him. Just my opinion.
While shooting is important, Wagner isn’t a total loss there, he shot 32 on about 3.4 attempts per game in his career, plus he’s a 83% FT shooter so the technique is there. Also, his shot looks smooth and natural, so it’s fair to expect improvement, though not expecting him to be a 40% shooter like Kispert, improving to 35-38% isn’t far-fetched.
Also, he’s not gonna be a primary ball handler where defenses will get lots of chances to sag off, he’ll get his threes via catch and shoot, same as Kispert, and he’s shown he can hit spot up 3s.
Also, he does do everything. Watch his highlights especially defensively, and the stats back it up 12-6-3-1-1 per game while improving his assists and decreasing his turnovers. That’s a huge positive in my mind.
Just seems like a player who helps in all aspects of the game.
Completely respect your opinion, and I could be totally wrong on both players. But shooting is still a huge part of “everything,” and 34% from the college line is not good. NBA D’s will beg him to shoot it. Also, Ben Mac still has one of the most beautiful techniques in the league and he can’t hit shit.
I mean he was 38% before the ncaa tournament games. So if his team didn’t make the tournament would we think he is a more respectable shooter? I think sometimes we get bogged down into small sample size on these 3 pt attempts. He shot 83% from line both years and his shot looks good. Nothing is ever sure fire though.
That said there are other guys in that range I like a bit more than Wagner¦but I could get behind it.
Actually, it makes me wonder if he wilts when it matters most. Kispert shot 44% in 32 games this year and 44% in 33 games last year. Not a small sample size. I hear you on nothing sure fire, though.
Maybe he does wilt¦ I mean to your point, Kispert shot 28% from 3 in his last three ncaa games as the competition got stiffer. Did he wilt? I don’t think so, again super small sample. I don’t think anyone is questioning that Kispert is a better shooter¦ just whether Wagner will be a pretty serviceable shooter so that he can be on the floor so his other strengths can show.
Taytum shot 34% from 3 at Duke. Harrison Barnes 34 and 35 two years at UNC. Shoot, Buddy shot 27% as a 20 year old at Oklahoma. Examples go the other way too. There’s a reason that people say FT percentage in college is more indicative of a shooter than 3pt percentage. Especially in young players.
Job of front office is too project if they think the shooting skill will develop or project to the NBA line. Many scouts seem to think Wagner will or can. Nothing seems broken.
Good stuff. I guess I just don’t see the high level athleticism or crazy IQ there to justify a “serviceable shooter” being on the floor. He looks like a decent 7-9 bench guy to me. A common lottery pick Euro who pretty quickly gets forgotten after the draft. I hope we can do better.
Yeah, get it. Lil higher on him and I could see him being a 4th or 5th best player on a good team, but that definitely would seem to be his ceiling.
So just exclude the shooting slump in the most important games of his career and you have an expert marksman, lol.
Even if you set his shooting aside, he is not that good. He doesn’t read play wells, think how Marvin holds the ball the extra beat before deciding what to do, Wagner is similar, indecisive and stuck in his head.
And Wagner is mediocre and worse at attacking the rim and mid range so even if he were to improve his shooting, defense will just close out on him hard (like Kispert) and he will not be able to make you pay.
Markennen at Arizona was a superior prospect to Wagner. And look how Markennen career has played out, pretty good but a mixed bag. Imagine a 70% version of Markennen, and this is probably a fair estimate of how Wagner’s career will play out.
I will say Wagner is better than bums like Moody and Barnes but I would not want him with the 9th pick because there is NO star potential there and I want us to land a future star.
Long career, career .363 from 3 = can’t hit shit ð
Shot 33% this year and was released. Been on a minimum deal for years. Had one good year in the league as a back-up. Hardly the projected Ray Allen there, mate, which was the context.
Helps to compare apples to apples by looking at both of their sophomore seasons.
Wagner
Per 40 stats: 16-8-4-2-1
Splits: 48/34/84
BPM: 11.9
Kispert
Per 40 stats: 12-6-2-1-1
Splits: 44/37/88
BPM: 5.9
Kispert was arguably a slightly better shooter, but Wagner was pretty superior as a sophomore in virtually ever other category and close as a shooter.
I’d personally wager that Wagner has more room for growth and improvement over the next couple of years.
Fair point. Also helps to actually see what you’re getting before you pick it, though. We did the Ben McLemore thing.
We did the established player thing with Justin Jackson. Not trying to be a jerk, just pointing out every prospect is different and needs to be evaluated.
I think Wagner has a lot more developed and developing skills. His stats for a sophomore were great (not superstar top pick obviously, but stronger overall and more well rounded than BMac). He still could be a bust, but I like the odds of him being a useful player with good upside as well.
Of course, but Jackson shot 30%, 29%, and 37% from 3 in college. Kispert’s 44% is elite. I would argue Wagner does nothing elite, and I don’t see the same upside you see either. Just me, man.
He has more red flags than a communist party convention ! OK with anyone else except Wagner !
Jalen Johnson is another guy I wanted to like because we need playmaking on the frontline.
And the optimal comp is a Ben Simmons – lite. So that sounds pretty good.
But if you study this guy closely, which I have, he is not a superior athlete. He is okay. He is average NBA athleticism. He is superior size to play the wing and suboptimal fundamentals.
So average athlete, good size and below average fundamentals is not a player I am salivating to draft. Isaiah “Unicorn” Jackson is far superior in so many ways!
Johnson is also not a hyper aggressive competitor either, there is a passivity to the way Johnson plays. I don’t like it . He does not attack the basket that well. Weak takes.
I would rather “roll the dice” on Ziaire if he impresses in pre-draft workout over Johnson.
Johnson does not have the “it” factor. He seems content to be a supplemental player. He does not have the dawg or star mentality. Others (see my list above) give off more of this vibe.
HARD PASS on both Mitchell and Kispert. I think both guys are great picks in the mid to late teens but not in the top 10. Even if we trade back, I still won’t pick either of them.
Kispert reminds me of Doug McDermott, maybe a little more athletic. Not a bad player, but a rotational guy that will be in the league for 15 years because he can shoot and has some size.
I think I am falling in love with James Bouknight and Trey Murphy III. Can you guys talk about Trey Murphy soon?
Trey Murphy is a good candidate to be picked up in the mid 20’s to early 2nd round. If he is there at 39, the Kings should take him assuming Edwards is off the board.
I have Bouknight as my No. 6 overall. Guys got some Zach Lavine in him and, this is probably heresy, but I also see DWade in his ability to identify and exploit mismatches on the offensive end.
Bouknight is good. He kind of reminds me of Ja Morant, I wonder if he could play some PG?
Is there really that big of difference talent-wise between Bouknight, Jalen Green and Jalen Suggs?
I like Bouknight more than Suggs , less than Green who is super athletic.
jwalker- who are your top 5? in other words who drops just below Bouknight.
I liked Bouknight early, my like faded but now like him again. More than Moody and more than K. Johnson. However, unless the duds trade or unless they go older players like Mitchell/Kispert at 7 and 14, I do think they take Bouknight.
Murphey is good- but not #9 good.
Kispert will be a role player and Mitchell a chance at stardom ( ala Donavan Mitchell ) ! All the negatives about Davion were said about Donavan ! Pass at your own risk !
Great podcast – as always – I agree with you guys on these prospects (probably not a big surprise, given the referenced content). On some level it feels like Mitchell’s defense should translate, though in a league with increased switching and hunting schemes, I do have to wonder if a 6’1″ player will ultimately be limited to being a good defensive prospect and not the type of elite defender you would want in the top 10 from a PG with offensive question marks.
I’m also just out on Kispert in general. Even if he can carve out a role in the NBA as a shooter and passable defender. His handles were poor for college and I just can’t imagine he represents the type of swing we need to be taking at #9 (or even 14-16 if we trade back).
I vote for skipping all of the meaningless analysis and doing what smart basketball teams do.
PICK THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE WHEN IT IS YOUR PICK REGARDLESS OF POSITION.
That’s not always the easiest thing to identify when you’re 9 picks into the draft
Yeah, I’m a big BPA guy, but NBA teams whiff on that about half the time. Once you get to 9 they are probably going to be tightly bunched, and need can be a viable tie breaker. Of course, there is no shortage when it comes to this roster’s needs, so…
Take the best available player at number nine. Same applies for the last pick of the second round.
Other teams do it all the time. Other teams pick better players in open try outs for the summer league than the Kings draft in any round.
If it was easy, everyone could be a GM. Even Vlade.
And “best” is relative anyway, so good luck with that.
Pick the one that seems like the best player and go with it.
Choosing based on position works out well for the Kangz.
I think that’s great to say, go with BPA but there are shades of grey to that. If the BPA is a 6 ft point guard who has a solid ceiling of 15 pts and 8 asts, that pick makes no sense on this team. Even if drafting to create an asset in a year or two, when will they play to showcase that talent? Probably not happening here with Fox and Hali. This is why teams trade up/down etc.
If there is a clear delineation and difference in caliber of player, then OK, go BPA. But that’s just not likely to be the case once you get past the first couple players in most drafts. So then fit matters.
I agree with the assessment of Davion Mitchell’s skill set. But I believe it could be useful to the Kings long term. Pick 9 is a bit of a reach for a player with his age, size, and unrefined offensive game but I would argue he will likely be a more impactful player than Delon Wright fairly quickly into his career.
The Kings have bigger needs on the wing and should have a few options available in either Barnes, Wagner, or Moody (Jalen Johnson’s combination of on and off court concerns give me chills when paired with a Kings’ uniform).
Even though he’s likely not the best selection for the Kings at 9, the thought of Davion acting as the tip of the spear in full court press with Fox and Hali lurking to jump passing lanes would be fun to watch! This team still has several needs and Mitchell would add some much needed doggedness.
I appreciate the site but it’s broke… log in…. click for the next page and the big W says..”log in” I log in again… weird… And it sends me back to the first part of the thread. It does this constantly for me.
Agreed. Hate to knock TKH, but considering the site has been around for like a year or more now, you would think these kinks would be worked out by now.
You going to do one of these for Garuba? His scouting report highlights some things the team needs: defense, rebounding, physicality, plays 4/5. Has some special talents like poking the ball away from a ball handler on the perimeter. Maybe not totally refined on offense but some flashes are there and has experience in the short roll and roaming the baseline between the corner 3 and dunker’s spot. Young prospect.
Wow! I have not heard you guys rave about a prospect this year as much as you have with Davion Mitchell. I would not be surprised if that remains true all the way till draft day. (Except for the top few guys like Cade, etc). I think your reasoning for crossing him off your list is flawed. His 6’0 height was not a barrier for Fred Van Vleet. As for fit, he could actually be good in rotation with Fox and Haliburton because his on ball defense is usually better than theirs and on offense he would be a secondary ball handler. True, they have Delon Wright, but they could see how things go and trade one. There’s a lot of value for a bulldog defender on a $4 million contract. And that lightening fast first step. If he might be the BPA at 9, he’s gotta be on your list.
Another short pg who D’s up taller guys: Mike Conley. Look at that playoff series several years ago where Conley guarded Kawhi. I think it went to 7 games.
Yeah, Marcus Smart anyone? People have been wanting that dude in Sac for years, but not Mitchell?
plus the upside on offense Davion has, as recognized on the podcast with his improvements on that end. Is there another prospect with quicker first step? Is there another player with more blow-by speed? Going to either side?
I mostly agree but I’m higher on Mitchell and his fit than Bryant. I think he brings a level of physicality to the point of attack the Kings currently lack. I try to focus on immediate impact because contracts are shorter now (3-4 yrs). A guy like Springer is too far away from his potential. Look no further than Bagley for a guy who has potential but still needs developing 3 years in. The Kings drafting for potential sets them up to be the farm team who gets picked apart in free agency 3-5 years from now. Either draft competent well developed players who can complement Fox, or trade him while his value is high (pre-injury).
This doesn’t need to mean upper-classman only. It means players with proven skills. I’m hoping for Moody because although he is young, he brings a proven skill-set. I see him fitting well with the current roster, especially after finding a trade for Hield (who I consider an especially bad fit). Guys with “if’s” scare me. If Wagner and Barnes improve their shooting they could be stars, but “if” is actually a pretty big word. At least Kispert and Mitchell have well developed undeniable skills.
Deuce Mason rumor- Kings interested in Kispert.
That just might do it for me- Jimmer, Nik,B Mac, T-Robb, Bagley.
No. Too many other options
This must be a Vivek pick- “I think we can make the playoffs !!”
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