Welcome to the official, unbiased, completely serious, this-is-all-really-going-to-happen-and-you-should-take-it-as-gospel 2022 Kings Herald mock lottery! We’ve gathered some brilliant draft minds (and Greg) to forecast the draft as we see fit. These are not the selections we believe the teams will make; rather, they’re the selections we would make if those particular teams had the unfortunate displeasure of hiring us as General Managers.
And with the first pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…
1. Orlando Magic: Jabari Smith Jr.
Tony: Orlando might view this as a more difficult decision than I do. Jabari Smith Jr. should be the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, so I’m taking him here. A 6’10” elite shooting prospect with Defensive Player of the Year potential is a win for any team in this spot, but for a young roster like Orlando with questionable guard shooting, Smith feels like a prospect that’ll make everyone on that team better offensively from day 1. And defensively, by the time Orlando is ready to compete, Jabari and Franz should be a combination as good as any when it comes time to defend opposing wings in a big playoff series.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Paolo Banchero
Bryant: This was a hard choice, as the Thunder could realistically take anyone of Banchero, Chet Holmgren, or Jaden Ivey and justify them as both the best player available and as a damn good fit for Oklahoma City. But I feel like Thunder really could take Paolo and surprise many of us. He’s got the highest chance of anyone in the class to be a true primary initiator, someone who can score at all three levels and be a top-end playmaker. While OKC already has both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey as playmakers, they don’t have a big man with anywhere close to Banchero’s scoring talent and offensive upside. Holmgren and Smith Jr. have gotten most of the buzz in the top 2, but there’s a real argument that Banchero is the best of all three of them.
3. Houston Rockets: Chet Holmgren
Tim: The Rockets lucked the hell out here due to Bryant’s slight reach for Paolo Banchero. Holmgren has every bit of potential to be the NBA’s next unicorn, and his ability to bring the ball up the floor like a guard, shoot from distance like a wing, and protect the rim like a center could make him an incredibly special player. And even if not all of those skills translate perfectly, his ability to knock down shots from beyond the arc and alter shots in the paint will make him a steady contributor for the Rockets for many years to come.
The start of his career may have some bumps in the road, as he desperately needs to put on some weight to hang with NBA-sized bigs (and even wings), but a smart team will put him across from power forwards on defense, while using his length to protect the paint on the weak side. Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, and Chet Holmgren could create a really special core for Houston, and the likely upcoming trade of Christian Wood could add even more assets to their future.
4. Sacramento Kings: Jaden Ivey
Brenden: If I were the one making this decision for the Sacramento Kings, the solution would simply to take whichever of the top-four (Holmgren, Smith Jr, Paolo or Ivey) is still available here. Ivey’s athleticism and creation ability makes his upside too great to pass up. De’Aaron Fox and Jaden Ivey both will need to be competent shooters(I believe Ivey will be) to make the spacing work between them, but their game in the open court would be spectacular. The other area of concern with this fit would be the defensive end, but Fox and Ivey both have the potential to be average or plus defenders in the NBA. The All-Star upside is easy to see with Ivey and hard to see with the rest of the class.
5. Detroit Pistons: Keegan Murray
Rob: I gave zero consideration to fit here, as I think that Detroit is firmly in the rebuild stage and is looking solely to get the best prospects that they can – fitting with Cade Cunningham might be the sole additional consideration here. Shaedon Sharpe was a brief thought here, but I have Murray rated higher on my board, and he is versatile enough to play alongside Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, and (for the time that he remains there) Jerami Grant. Minutes won’t be a problem, and Murray’s ability to let the game come to him will make him the perfect blend of malleable and effective as this young team grows together. Bryant’s excellent long form article on Murray possesses the deets.
6. Indiana Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin
Akis: The Pacers are a tough one. I think the guy they are really hoping will fall to them is Keegan Murray, and with him going to the Pistons at 5, the choices aren’t as obvious. Sharpe is the highest upside pick, but I don’t think a team like Indiana is willing to take that risk. I like Dyson Daniels a lot as well, but he might be too similar to Haliburton. The Pacers could also use AJ Griffin’s shooting, but in the end I took Bennedict Mathurin, who should hopefully give the Pacers a guy who can create his own offense and fit well with their young core of Haliburton and Duarte. With those three and the return of Myles Turner, the Pacers can build a fast-paced, high octane offense that also features some versatility on the other end of the floor. Mathurin has the chance to be one of the best scorers to come out of this draft, and I think Indiana needs that.
7. Portland Trail Blazers: Dyson Daniels
Brenden: Portland needs wings! Especially wings who have good size and excel on the defensive end of the floor. Dyson, who is nearly 6’8″, averaged 1.9 steals and 0.8 blocks through 14 games with the G-League Ignite. For Portland, Daniels helps bolster their wing defense alongside Nassir Little and offers some upside if Daniels can improve his three-point shot and finishing in time. Also, Daniels playmaking ability should compliment superstar Damian Lillard and allow him to play more off-ball.
8. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremy Sochan
Greg: I considered Shaedon Sharpe here, but I think the Pelicans are ready to win-now. They’ve got a solid starting five especially if Zion is back. They could probably use AJ Griffin’s shooting, but again I think they’re going to be looking for a player who doesn’t need much time to develop. Sochan is that player. He can defend a variety of positions, and can contribute off the bench immediately. With Sochan and Herb Jones, the Pelicans will be giving opposing offenses nightmares.
9. San Antonio Spurs: Shaedon Sharpe
Tony: Shaedon Sharpe doesn’t strike me as a Spurs pick, or a Gregg Popovich pick, but I’m not letting him slide any further. Sharpe is one of the most controversial prospects in the 2022 NBA Draft due to the fact that he hasn’t played competitive basketball in over a year, but his combination of athleticism and scoring ability is electric. His potential is as high as anyone in this class.
The Spurs already have a weird collection of young versatile wings and guards, so you could argue Sharpe is positionally redundant, but finding a star this late in the lottery is something San Antonio has been able to do time and time again to sustain their success. The Spurs should feel confident in their ability to get the most out of Sharpe, too, and make several teams above them in the draft regret their selections in a few years
10. Washington Wizards: AJ Griffin
Tim: I was really, really, really hoping that Shaedon Sharpe would slide to the 10th pick, as that would have been great value for the Wizards, but AJ Griffin is a lovely consolation prize. Washington already has several wings and forwards in Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, and Rui Hachimura, but Griffin provides an incredible level of shooting that none of the others can sustain. In the later lottery, sometimes snagging a slight slider for upper-tier talent is a better move than going for fit, and that’s exactly what the Wizards accomplish with their acquisition of AJ Griffin.
11. New York Knicks: Johnny Davis
Greg: The Knicks could definitely use more help at guard. Davis could end up buried on the bench by Thibs, but that could be said of any rookie. But Davis’ defense could win him minutes from a coach, and the Knicks could use a guy who isn’t afraid to take big shots. Also, Davis reminds me of John Starks, for better and for worse, so he’s my pick for the Knicks.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tari Eason
Bryant: Having watched my top two targets for the Thunder go at 10 and 11, this one was a bit of a debate, but I opted for the player I believe is the best available. Tari Eason’s defensive upside and improvement as a shooter last year make him a lottery lock in my opinion. The young OKC squad was damn solid on defense at times last year, and Eason takes that to another level; and, as a bonus, he could play really well in a small ball lineup with Banchero, who I took at 2 for the Thunder. His playmaking and handling abilities are real question marks, but neither are issues in Oklahoma City. He may go later than this on draft day, but I think any great developmental team would be wise to bet on Eason.
13. Charlotte Hornets: Mark Williams
Rob: I did consider fit a bit here, but Williams is also deserving of being considered at #13 regardless of fit/need. At 7-2, 245, Williams should develop his NBA body quickly. The Hornets did not have a player on their roster that averaged even one block per game, and Miles
Bridges was their leading rebounder at seven per game. Williams was at 11 and 4 for Duke. Williams has a real chance to crack the core rotation right away, which is not always the case for the #13 pick. I did think about Jalen Duren here, but the Hornets probably want help sooner than later, and Williams appears to be further along in his development.
14. Cleveland Cavaliers: Ochai Agbaji
Akis: I was kind of hoping that Tari Eason would fall here so that the Cavaliers could have a frontcourt of Eason/Mobley/Allen, which would be simply terrifying to try to score on, but without him here, I went with Ochai Agbjai and was pretty happy with it. Jalen Duren is still available, but it was hard to see the Cavaliers taking him when they already have Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Cavaliers are young but also ready to compete now, and Agbaji is someone who can step in right away and fill a need as a 3-and-D guy. You can slot him in at Shooting Guard or Small Forward and he should be able to fill out Cleveland’s rotation nicely.
I’m just mentally preparing for the Kings to either trade back and take Murray, or just take Murray outright at 4.
I don’t think Murray slips past Indy as he’s an ideal fit for them because they don’t currently have a starting PF (neither do the Kings!). So if he’s the target take him at 4 or hope that Detroit wants to trade up.
I keep saying it, but if Monte has Murray and Ivey in the same tier or damn close to it, trading with Detroit might be the best possible outcome. Getting the guy you want plus an asset is the ultimate win.
agree Indy will want Murray, so if Kings pass on Ivey by trading, if they want Murray as alternative, they can’t trade below Indy.
Grant would be an asset but wants a big contract in a couple of years and will eat up cap space. and to get a player, Kings must trade a player to Detroit- this deal may take a third party. Detroit does not have much draft assets unless it is a protected 2023. This might be similar to Mavs/Hawks trade a couple of years ago.
I’m mentally preparing for a lot, but still won’t be really surprised if I’ll have a WTF moment.
We Trade Fourth?
I’m ok with either of these outcomes, although I’d of course prefer getting the assets for trading back and getting Murray.
I also would be in favor of just taking Ivey. For may not be the best along side Fox but I think he’ll be better than Fox in a couple years.
I had a brief flirtation with the idea of taking Sharpe, but they way his camp has handled the pre draft process combines with the lack of experience has ended my infatuation for good. I wouldn’t take him before 13 or so.
It scares me to think that the Kings would Kangz it up with this draft, but with Shaedon Sharpe on the board and Vivek in the room and in everybody’s ear, Kangziness is always a possibility.
Is Sharpe the next “Klay Curry”?
Stauskas?
Solid picks and thoughts about each player and team. If Ivey is the selection by the Kings at 4, I really want to see it work.
Will must be fuming at the Poku slander.
So how much better will Chet be than Poku?
Like, 1.53 times.
1.25 times
*checks math*
Dammit.
I think that Griffin is going to go higher than ten, Davis is a Popovich-type of player at nine, and that Sharpe will be in the 6-7-8 range when all is said and done.
Odds of someone other than Ivey available at four? I’d say two in five.
I think with the exception of three players, everyone other than Ivey will be available at four.
You mathematical bastard.
” . . . Fox and Ivey both have the potential to be average or plus defenders in the NBA.”
Fox has been around for awhile. If he was inclined to defend, we would have seen it by now.
But the potential man, it’s tantalizing!
Yup, for anyone who says Fox can improve any part of his game to take it to “the next level,” please show me more than 2 guys this century who have done that after 5 years in the league. Even late bloomer Jimmy Butler was an all-star by year 4.
Andrew Wiggins may be the rare exception here.
Yes. Most of his improvement to becoming an all-star was being better defensively. Fox has shown that he can defend well against the top tier guys, but the other 95% of the players torch him because he doesn’t seem to put forth any effort.
Has he? I haven’t seen all games played by Fox, but I only remember games where he showed glimpses and/or spurts of decent D.
I’d be happy to see a game where he consistently played good and spirited D almost the whole game long.
I heard the numbers on I think it was the Kings Beat podcast (?) Great against elite scorers, 2nd to last against all others.
Okay, thanks.
I have my doubts, but I have been wrong about a few things.
And apparently Harrison Barnes is one of the worst close out defenders in the league. I believe the data was from Roland Beech’s site 82 games
Okay, but here’s the rub, IMO; when your point of attack defender is weak, it influences all defenders. So how often would guys like Barnes have to collapse to try and cut off a guy flying by Fox dying on a screen, only to recover in an attempt to close out his man once that player kicked out?
Defensive stats are so influenced by team D, and the weakest link.
It will be interesting to see if Brown can scheme around Fox’s defensive weaknesses, and challenge him to reduce such weaknesses. I can imagine the first (if there are decent defensive players surrounding Fox and Domas), but am more sceptical about the latter.
Yup, exactly the problem with having such a bad defender at the point of attack.
Or, maybe even get him to buy in and hold him accountable for lapses.
Fox being better on ball would go along way towards dragging the team up to average defensively. His lackadaisical defense leads to lots of scrambling, easy dunks, and open threes.
Ugh. He needs to be great against everyone.
If he were to be just an average defender each game, that would make the team so much better.
GS put Wiggins in a better position to succeed. The Kings aren’t close to being GS.
They had the infrastructure to simplify his role and make him the third or fourth option. It took Wiggins a while to reach his potential, and I am glad he found a place for that to actualize. Like you said, the Kings are far far away from that place.
this is an indirect argument for Ivey. Kings need a star- Ivey COULD be that. Fox has a ceiling, so does Murray-
go for it.!
DeMar DeRozan had a really late career blossoming. Zach Lavine has continued to get better. Many of us had a meltdown when Vlade offered him that contract. Turns out it was a good idea! Steph Curry has gone from negative to a sight plus defender despite not having much size or plus athleticism.
A tangential comment: in this great NBA finals series it is easy to see how great athletes committed to defense can make it hard for the other team. Great teams play great defense. As a team, the Kings aren’t even close. That said, I still believe that great defense is, more than shooting, a matter of desire and commitment.
People are talking Jovic being a point god version of Jokic. Do this be true?
He would be lucky to be even half as good at distributing as Jokic. As would 95% of NBA players.
No. I like Jovic, but they’re completely different players. And comping anyone to a multi-MVP is silly.
One can very easily come to the conclusion that the reason you are not making a case for Ivey is because you can’t.
Very disappointed you all failed to live up to expectations on this one. When you gather a crew together to mock the lottery selections I expect things like –
1. Orlando Magic: Jabari Smith Jr.: Orlando is like the Kings of the East, and with this pick they certainly make their team better. Unfortunately they could draft Shaq and still not find a way to win a chip. Oh, wait…
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Paolo Banchero: Despite having drafted 3 HOFers in their early history, the Thunder have yet to cash in on a chip. Banchero is Spanish for banker, and while his game is money the Thunder will find themselves short on funds until they figure out how to convince their GM to cash in some of that draft stock for actual capital.
Its a little early for quick wit, the coffee hasn’t kicked in yet. I just wanted to say y’all missed on a solid opportunity here. I’m not angry, but Statler and Waldorf are very disappointed.
If we add Ivey, it’s going to be interesting to see if a team can compete in the league with almost no outside shooters on the roster. Otherwise, Monte has his work cut out for him to add a few via FA.
When we moved up to 4 in the lotto, me:
After weeks of going through all the various likely options at 4 in the draft, me:
Brenden and Rob,
Would you both have agreed to #4 for #5 and Grant? Or #4 and Holmes for #5 and Grant?
I think the Pistons could keep #5 and then trade Grant for a mid-teens pick or higher, depending on who that team might be. I think Grant and #5 for #4 is a pipe dream that simply will not happen.
I’m inclined to agree with you. I think there’s options to make it work, though. That’s why I included the alternate Holmes deal.
I’m not as high on Grant as others – he’s not a floor stretcher by any means, and his rebounding totals are pretty bad, plus he wants his next big deal. So to me, would you drop one draft slot for a potentially disgruntled rental / overpaid next deal?
I’m not averse to moving down a spot, but I’d need something more along the lines of Bey (not happening).
I’m not as high on him either, but I do remember the trade deadline “rumors” and a fair amount of support in the comments for trading for him. I really like him as a trade deadline asset this year and someone that can provide meaningful minutes until then as the rookie (hypothetically at 5 in this trade scenario, Murray?) develops. Definitely would not want to trade for him and give him a fat extension.
I think the top 3 picks went in the order they should go in, but I would’ve drafted Murray instead of Ivey. Ivey has a lot of potential, but I think a lot of things have to go right for Ivey to be a good player, much less an All-Star. Murray should at least be a good player.
There were some slight reaches at other picks, but Eason at #12 feels like a massive reach to me. He was far from being the BPA IMO.
In fairness, a lot of things need to go right for any player to be good, let alone an all-star.
I’ll be surprised if Murray isn’t good. However, I think he’ll need some things to go right for him to be an All-Star.
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