This season’s Sacramento Kings are an inconsistent team with poor execution and lacking an identity. The current 9-11 record is a cause of frustration for fans after an alarming loss to the Portland Trail Blazers Friday.
This franchise has experienced a new level of success in recent seasons (at least in the context of Sacramento basketball) and there is now some good talent on the roster that should be performing better than it is. It also has a decent statistical profile: 10th in offensive rating, 16th in defensive rating, as well as ranking 8th in floor percentage (the ratio of scoring possessions to total possessions). Sacramento also fixed its free throw percentage woes from last season and now ranks 7th in that category. Underneath some of these surface-level numbers reveals a decline in effectiveness and change in the system that has taken the Kings from a surprisingly fun and up-and-coming squad to an underperforming and confusing product.
The Ghost Of The Original Beam Team
Two seasons ago the Kings emerged from the depths of Kangzism with a gimmicky, yet exhilarating beam on top of the arena and a free-flowing offense that was fun to watch and resulted in wins. The offensive attack was built around what Mike Brown called “hitting singles” – an approach structured on good spacing and ball movement with three players often hanging around the three-point line giving Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox room to operate and make decisions in the middle the floor while kicking/spraying out to three-point shooters, who would actually make those shots. There was willing ball movement and easy shots via pick-and-rolls and dribble hand offs. It resulted in ranking first in points per game, third in assists per game, 6th in three pointers attempted, 9th in three-point percentage, and an offense that looked simple and effortless. It was fun.
This season, the team ranks 14th in points per game, 22nd in assists per game, and 25th in three-point field goal percentage. It isn’t too fun. Every game feels like more of a fight to keep up with the opponent because things aren’t coming easy.
Interestingly, De’Aaron Fox is having a career year at 27.7 points, 5 rebounds and 5.8 assists. This is the first time he has averaged 5 assists and 5 rebounds, while improving his free throw percentage to 80%. And Domantas Sabonis has improved his shot like everyone wanted him to do. Yet, what is going on around them isn’t resulting in consistent basketball.
The Turnover Numbers Don’t Explain The Real Issue
Now, what is interesting about this year’s squad is that some of the basic stats remain deceptively the same as that team two seasons ago. Turnovers seems to be a huge problem this season, but the team’s turnover ranking didn’t drastically change: They average 14 turnovers now, 13 turnovers then. This number explains part of the real problem. It isn’t the total turnovers; it is the impact and context of the turnovers this season that is dramatically different and tells the true story. The turnovers two seasons ago came as a byproduct of a dynamic offense. The turnovers this season are a result of forced play and stagnation.
The Negative Trend Beyond The Arc
Which leads us to quite possibly the biggest problem/symptom of this identity crisis: This year’s team has regressed from beyond the arc, a key component of what made the Beam Team such a threat. The 2022-23 team was 9th in three-point percentage and this season’s squad is 25th. This has a cascading effect on the whole offense because shooting at a top 10 rate from three forces opponents to respect those shots and not sag off. Sagging off allows opponents to clog up spacing and disrupt the pick-and-roll game and dribble hand offs. Now, instead of “hitting singles” the offense is striking out, getting down in games and desperately relying on isolation play to climb back in. Throw in DeMar DeRozan, whose game is built on the mid-range, and it adds to the difficulties of trying to make things hum like they used to. (To clarify I am not blaming DeRozan, but the reality is he gets his points from midrange and the team is trying to figure out how to take advantage of that, which is probably altering a lot.) We recently dove into the three-point shooting issue and DeRozan here.
The Defensive Problems
The other side of the ball tells a similar story. Compare this season’s team to the team two seasons ago and opponent three-point percentage has only dropped from 24th in the league to 27th. Neither is particularly good, but when you put it in the context of the rest of the problems offensively, it becomes clearer. Following the loss to the Portland Trail Blazers Friday, Mike Brown expressed frustration about his team not being able to contain dribble drives. This results in open three pointers for the other team (even though the Blazers didn’t take a lot of threes, they ended up just scoring 64 points in the paint instead). Yet when this happens and teams are knocking down a lot of threes, the Kings can’t counter it with its own three-point shooting. This creates a significant disadvantage on both sides of the ball.
A Fundamental Shift
The Kings decline goes beyond a simple statistical decline because it has maintained a decent efficiency when getting shots up – 8th in floor percentage and similar turnover numbers. The problem is that the team has lost its systematic approach that created a free-flowing offense two seasons ago. The unselfish and fluid nature has been replaced with more isolation and an individualistic style of play. There are many people getting blamed right now: from Mike Brown, to Monte McNair, to Keegan Murray and his three-point downslide, to injuries, to poor bench play, to anyone or anything else we all want to blame. To be honest, it is a little bit of all of the above. The bottom line though is the Kings have lost its identity and desperately need to get the one that worked back or figure out a new one that is going to be effective. The team’s Net Rating of 15th is a strong indication as to what the ceiling might be as currently constructed: a .500 team that can compete in the play-in. That wouldn’t be progress though.
Looking Forward
All is not lost though. A brief winning streak could catapult the Kings right back into the backend of the playoff spots in the Western Conference. And as mentioned, the team’s ratings suggest they can compete and score effectively because of the roster’s top-end talent. Rediscovering a way to generate more space and fluidity though is vital because this decline is clearly a loss of an identity.
I feel there is a missing piece here. Brown needs one of his players to be the leader who internalizes his messages and holds the team accountable at the player level. Based on salary and longevity it needs to be fox but he’s not that kind of leader. Only other person I think it could be is Domas. If neither is willing to hold the line with the other players then we will continue to have a problem. This feels like a something Browns coaching style relies on.
Leading by example won’t work. We need a vocal leader. Unfortunately this team needs external motivation for every single game. I’m not of the opinion Brown can provide the level of Rah Rah needed to keep this team going because it does seem dependent on an external force to do it for them.
Great points but think Domas does provide some if not all you hope . However , I think the coaching Rah Rah is in Brooklyn
Was HB40 the glue? He is not the rah rah type of guy, but I think he definitely kept the guys close.
The problem with adding DeRo, is we didn’t expect Keeg, Kevin & Trey to all start shooting 3s like him as well. The 22-23 team had 3 starters shooting 40% or close to it on 3s with pretty good volume. Now we have none of that. Also, I think Demar has hurt the pace somewhat too, and disrupted the rhythm of the free flowing offense. He can be too much of a ball stopper at times. I really think Monte needs to make a move with Huerter, Trey & possibly Derozan. Hope he doesn’t wait till the deadline as the season is almost two thirds over by then. Lyles struggled badly the last 15 games of last year, and is getting injured quite often as well. And Huerter is career streaky, Hawks fans know all about him.
I do not think this team has lost their identity. I do think this team has maintained its identity after an anomaly of a couple of average years.
This team is missing pieces. Softer than most professional teams in any sport. Underperforming based on the statistics. Once again staring down the the loss of a good player and a half ass rebuild.
This has been the identity of this team for two decades.
Great stuff, Blake.
Good stuff Blake, love the term Kangzism, we get a new Kangz related term daily it seems haha. Being a Kangzy guy is tough, fandom to this franchise is an act of charity. That team two years ago was magic and I agree the fun level to watch was the best part.
I would also say this team is not particularly athletic and I think that also gets exposed. The roster has limited capabilities, not being very long, big, or athletic. Though it is somewhat but not like some of these younger teams. It’s an odd assortment of guys that doesn’t seem to fit that well, though they are skilled.
Not sure how we breakthrough, it’s tough to climb up and easy to slide down. It’s the whole franchise that really has an identity problem and stays stuck.
I somehow missed this. But as others said, this is a good piece, Blake.
Thanks!
I missed it too. Great article!
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