Welcome to our Season Review series. Instead of season grades, we’re going to review the season as a whole for each player individually. We begin with Buddy Hield.
This was the first year of Buddy’s Hield new contract, in which he earned $24 million, making Buddy the highest paid player on the team. Through that lens, Buddy was quite the disappointment. When thinking about the Kings this season, Buddy was probably the team’s 5th or 6th best player, hardly the outcome you’re hoping for from your largest contract.
We can also look at the raw production and see that in many ways this was another year of regression for Hield (numbers via Basketball Reference). 16.6 points per game is the lowest for Buddy since 2017-18. 39.1% from 3 is Buddy’s lowest since his rookie season. Buddy’s overall FG% of 44.6% is the lowest of his career. And Buddy’s defensive rating of 119 was also the worst of his career. PER, BPM, Win Shares, VORP, almost every indicator points to this being one of the worst season of Buddy Hield’s career.
This isn’t to say there was nothing good about Buddy’s season. Part of the reason his production was lower is that he took a smaller role in the offense. Buddy’s usage rate was 20.7, the lowest it’s been since he arrived in Sacramento. And there were signs of growth in Buddy’s game. Buddy’s handles will never be confused with Kyrie Irving, but Buddy went from 3 assists per game last year to 3.6 per game this year, while also bringing his turnovers down from 2.3 to 1.8 per game. Buddy appeared to be a more willing passer, and a more competent ball handler. Those improvements certainly don’t make up for his other shortcomings, but it’s only fair to acknowledge growth when it happens.
It’s also worth noting that for all of his struggles and his lower efficiency, Buddy Hield remains one of the league top three point shooters in volume. 39.15 is the lowest of his career, but is still an impressive percentage when you remember Buddy took 10.2 threes per game. Hield made more threes this season than anyone other than Steph Curry. The ability to make an average of four three pointers per game can help any team in the NBA. The challenge with Buddy has always been highlighting the ways he helps you and limiting the ways he hurts you.
Going forward, Buddy Hield’s contract becomes a smaller obligation. Due to the decreasing nature of his contact, Buddy will earn around $22.2 million next season, 20.2 the following year, and 18.3 the final year (those numbers are base salary, not factoring in incentives). Buddy will also turn 29 next season.
It’s assumed that Monte McNair will attempt to trade Buddy Hield this summer, but McNair presumably tried to trade Buddy at the deadline as well. Sam Amick reported around the deadline that there was almost no market for Hield. Will the reduced contract hit be enough to bring another team to the table? Or will Buddy still be here when camp opens at the end of the summer? We’ll have to wait and see.
Just a eye-test guess, but it felt like Buddy had a lot less of those possessions where he sneaks in for an offensive board and a put back this season. Maybe he got more concerned with getting back on defense, or just didn’t want to get into the paint as much.
Seems like you have a pretty good eye. While Hield’s overall rebounding numbers were up over the previous year, they were down specific to offensive boards.
Greg, it was important that you pointed out Hield’s three-point percentages, while lower than his career numbers, still very much among the best in the league, particularly when volume is considered. When a player is shooting ten of them per game, averaging four makes is high-level stuff. When you can be compared to Steph Curry and not look like a joke, you’re doing something pretty well.
His defensive numbers are obviously bad, and the eye-test supports that. My question is, when your team defense is historically bad, do the DRtg numbers really tell you very much? For example, most would agree that Delon Wright’s defense is pretty good, yet in his time with the Kings, his DRtg was 115, up from 111 this season with Detroit, who also had a pretty bad defense.
We can compare Wright’s 115 with Hield’s 119, and declare with some certainty that Wright was the better defender, but it becomes something of a chicken or egg question, for me at least. If you put Buddy on the floor with Gobert and Conley, his defensive numbers are going to get a lot better pretty quickly, since he’d have better teammates to mitigate any mistakes he might make. That would apply to any player, of course. So it seems like the O/DRtg for your teammates has a larger effect on any player’s numbers than said player’s actual skill level. The effect is kind of like an avalanche.
There is utility in comparing one teammate’s numbers to another’s particularly when using shared minutes to get those numbers. It gives you a decent picture of who the good and bad defenders are on a team, but comparing them to those of players from other teams, to me, seems like an apples-to-oranges exercise. The Lakers are obviously a very good offensive team, but if you were to remove Anthony Davis’ DRtg of 104, everyone else’s individual number on the team gets worse.
I’m interested in knowing if you guys think that O/DRtg numbers are particularly useful when comparing a player on one team to one on another team.
I would agree that there is a high degree of relativism with DRtg in particular. You see this when players go from good to bad defensive teams or vice versa and their numbers shift accordingly.
Here are some notable players making less /year than Buddy:
Julius Randle
D. Sabonis
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bojan Bogdanovic
Spencer Dinwiddie
Zach LaVine
Jerami Grant
Myles Turner
TJ Warren
Gary Harris
Aaron Gordon
Christian Wood
Dennis Schroder
Eric Bledsoe
Dejounte Murray
Jordan Clarkson
Brook Lopez
Jusuf Nurkic
I’m cherry picking, obviously, as there are certainly some worse contracts than his. But listing these out, it’s easy to see why his contract is not of great value and difficult to trade.
True. If you start looking at contracts belonging to Wiggins, Wall, Horford, KLove, Griffin, and even guys like Hayward or Tobias Harris, it adds perspective to the analysis. (I like Harris a lot, and while it’s a ton of money, he’s in his prime and playing phenomenally. You could include Westbrook, too.)
The front-loading aspect of Hield’s deal seems to weigh heavily on how it’s perceived from person to person. My take is that if Buddy gets back to his career numbers on shooting, and continues to improve as a facilitator and (hopefully) as a defender, his salary is going to seem rather reasonable to fans, whether in Sacramento, or another team.
Zach lavine is going to get paid this offseason. Murray signed a below market deal because of injury concerns. Otherwise, that list is totally fine.
Trade Buddy. Overpaid for his skillset and bad influence on the younger players. Another Vlade mistake.
How has Hield’s negative impact on younger players manifested itself?
Agreed, lets just hope that a guy that demanded a contract extension thru the media, made fun of our rookie during a national media interview for saying that the team’s success is more important than starting, and is an absolute sieve on defense doesn’t have any impact whatsoever on younger players. Fingers crossed!
Oh, yeah. He’s basically Latrell Sprewell.
I’m sure we’ll get a robust haul for him this offseason: “Sam Amick reported around the deadline that there was almost no market for Hield.”
Has Amick said anything on the topic in the last two months?
Oh the only way Monte McNair is trading Buddy if he beats up the ghost of Vlade Divac’s greatest hits (otherwise known as a colossal failure as GM), gives his wife a pickle tickle, AND smacks around Woj until he wills a trade of Buddy into existence all ay the same time while dancing a jig. Everybody knows it really.
You know it’s true Sims. YOU KNOW IT’S TRUE.
I mean, it could be true, but it’s a certainty that no one knows what the hell you’re talking about.
There’s a method to all madness, Sims.
Has anybody in the NBA been able to trade anyone after the trade deadline?
Has Buddy done anything in the last two months to increase his trade value?
2a is where you’ll want to start.
Definition of deadline
1 : a line drawn within or around a prison that a prisoner passes at the risk of being shot
2a : a date or time before which something must be done
b : the time after which copy is not accepted for a particular issue of a publication
So after the trade deadline has any NBA team been able to trade a player?
One Gif just summazie Buddy Hield………(to explain the gif : Wright passed Hield the ball, but Hield afraid of any contact of opponents, and avoid drawing foul, instead, he chose to throw the ball away, and caused a TO)
i.e. still the same old Buddy Hield, with low BBIQ……….
In conclusion. just trade him away…….
We might need shooter, but we just don’t need somebody that hurts the team, in the locker room and on the court.
Rather play Tyrese/ Davis / Harkless / L. King as the starting SG, just no more Hield for next season.
Hield was 69th in 3P% this season. Bogi was 11th. You generally would have expected those numbers to be reversed, but not this year, and you have to wonder what happens going forward, since Walton is apparently the forever coach.
And Hield made 46% more threes on only 51% more attempts. With that kind of difference in volume, I’m not sure that Bobo’s .438 as opposed to Hield’s .391 is the gaping chasm that is suggested by 11th place as opposed to 69th. (Although I thought it was 66th.)
If you compare the percentages only against players who took more than 500 3PA, there were only two players better than Hield, Curry and Duncan Robinson, and he’s tied with Lillard and Tim Hardaway Jr. at .391. Only Hardaway and Robinson make less money than Hield.
I’m almost certain tim hardaway jr. will sign a large contract this offseason as well. He’s been arguably the second best player on the mavs.
Somebody is going to overpay Hardaway Jr. AGAIN? Man, good for him.
I’m with you about Hardaway. He was actually pretty good this season, but up til now, he’s been a 25 points on 24 shots kind of guy, a real chucker. Anthony Edwards was in that mold until the all-star break, and has been a lot better since then.
And you’re right, someone is going to offer Hardaway something in the high eight figures this summer.
I certainly don’t want to be the team that ponies up a big contract then sees what’s likely to happen to his shooting efficiency when he doesn’t have Doncic feeding him open spot ups all day.
Agreed on that. Fortunately we don’t really need another guard here, and Hield is a better version of Hardaway, anyway.
Buddy/Bags 4 Porzingis
Funny how good Hardaway Jr. looks playing next to Doncic. Tim should donate half his new contract to luka.
They all should. It was crazy to look at the 3p% jumps half of that team made last season.
I’m not sure that Buddy talking more attempts signals any kind of positive. He gets a lot more minutes and attempts then a lot of better shooters in the league who make a fraction of what he does. Give elite shooters like Luke Kennard (19 MPG at 44% 3PT), Anfernee Simmons (17 MPG at 42% 3PT) Georges Niang (16 MPG at 42% 3PT) and Buddy approces average.
Like Carl said, Hield is now 69th in 3PT shooting. Last season he was 36th and the year before that he was 7th!
2 years ago there were just 22 players who shot over 40% from three, this past season there were 49.
He’s still an elite shooter, but the problem is there are just so many more of them in the league that unless Buddy brings something else to his game his contract will continue to be unmovable, regardless of its descending costs.
Sidenote: Niang may be a good low cost FA target.
I mean, it’s easy to take smallish sample sizes, extrapolate them upward and argue that the percentages will hold, but that’s far from certain, and statistically unlikely. More shots mean more misses, and more makes means increased attention from defenses.
I agree with BHE, Niang would be an interesting target, although even with Utah’s powerhouse defense, his DRtg is still 111. Pretty good on the Kings’ roster, but surprisingly not great on Utah’s.
Oh, he’s not a great defender. He’s more in the Ingles mold, where he’s smart enough and reads the game well enough to be PART of a good defense because he’ll understand the scheme and know where he’s supposed to be and what he’s supposed to do.
Nuance is neither appreciated or wanted around here. Go away.
Just as a point of reference, the extra volume is doing Buddy or the team no good at all, so I don’t think it’s all a point in his favor.
2018-19: 278 for 651
2019-20: 271 for 688
2020-21: 282 for 721
I think there are two primary things happening here – bad coaching and bad shot selection/BBIQ. From 2018-19 to this season, Buddy’s increase three point volume is spent going 4 for 70 (5.7%) on threes. If this were just an issue of volume shooting, the extra volume is basically made up entirely of wasted shots.
Buddy/Bags for Porzingis
Buddy has an elite skill. Buddy was overpaid by Vlade. Fact, and fact. Buddy’s bad defense could be hidden in a good team defensive scheme. Buddy was mouthy during his negotiations. Fact. That could have been avoided with a good, tactful front office. Getting rid of Buddy won’t solve anything unless it’s a good deal. Buddy’s a symptom, not a disease.
Buddy is a three point threat.
Does a team with the worst defense ever need a player that cannot play defense?
Does a team that is softest team in the league need a player that only plays at the perimeter?
Does a team that cannot consistently win need a streaky shooter?
Buddy is a good player who does not fit the Sacramento Kings.
I’m pleasantly surprised that he only had 1.8 TO per game. I would have guessed 3.
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