When the NBA closed its doors due to the COVID-19 pandemic two months ago, many unknowns existed, and many of those same questions remain unanswered today. No games have officially been canceled, no return date has been set, and no solutions have been endorsed. Instead, Adam Silver has adopted a wait-and-see approach as data continues to emerge and testing protocols continue to increase across the country.
While most folks are understandably concerned with the league-wide implications of the shutdown, the Sacramento Kings and their players also have some very difficult choices ahead of them. Jabari Parker, Nemanja Bjelica, and Bogdan Bogdanovic each represent a unique financial puzzle for the Kings, and with the salary cap projection and the luxury tax threshold for the 2020-2021 season currently sitting in limbo, every team and player decision will have a domino effect moving forward.
Jabari Parker
Jabari Parker holds a $6.5 million player option for the 2020-2021 season, meaning the Kings have no sway over his decision one way or the other. If Parker chooses to decline his guaranteed cash, he’ll enter the offseason as an unrestricted free agent, able to sign any contract with any team in the league, even the Kings. Conversely, Parker can opt into his deal and spend next season in Sacramento, joining the 2021 free agent class.
Collecting the secured paycheck may seem like an obvious move for Parker, as the volatility of the NBA’s situation will likely discourage players from taking risks this summer, but his decision isn’t quite as simple as it may appear. Prior to his trade to the Kings, the former second overall pick was enjoying a productive start to the year in Atlanta, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in 26.2 minutes per game for the Hawks, but a shoulder injury cost him more than a quarter of the season, and he was never able to find his groove in Sacramento. Once his rehabilitation was complete, Parker played in just one game for the Kings before receiving nine straight DNP-CDs from Head Coach Luke Walton. If Parker’s sole priority is playing time and getting an opportunity to make an impact on the court, he may choose to take a risk this summer and explore the free agent market.
Prediction: Although Parker was essentially cast aside once he joined the Kings, a guaranteed $6.5 million salary for a player who has played for five teams in six years will likely be too tempting to pass up. While Sacramento’s front office would love to free up some wiggle room heading into the summer, they can expect Parker to be sitting on the sideline next season.
Nemanja Bjelica
Unlike Jabari Parker, Nemanja Bjelica’s future is completely within the control of the Sacramento Kings. His $7.15 million contract is non-guaranteed until June 29th, or whatever date the NBA determines due to the COVID-19 hiatus. If management wants him to stay, they’ll simply let that day pass and his deal will be locked in for next season. If the Kings prefer to free up a chunk of cash, they’ll need to cut him before his guarantee date, making Bjelica an unrestricted free agent.
From a basketball standpoint, there’s no doubt that Bjelica’s production justifies a $7 million salary. During the 2019-2020 season, Professor Big Shots was one of only five NBA players to shoot at least 42% from deep on more than 4.5 three-point attempts per game. Aside from being a prolific shooter, Bjelica is also the only stretch-big on the roster and has started in 131 games over the past two years in Sacramento. If the Kings decide to part ways in June, they won’t be able to find a suitable, cost-effective replacement on the open market.
Bjelica’s contract guarantee seems as obvious of a move as Parker opting into the final year of his deal, but there are multiple layers at work for both ownership and the front office. The shutdown of the NBA and the Golden 1 Center is going to cost Vivek Ranadive and the group around him millions of dollars in revenue, and that loss of income, combined with the almost certain decrease in salary cap and luxury tax line, may make Bjelica expendable, as he represents the only easily sheddable contract for the team.
Prediction: Ownership and management hopefully understand that making the playoffs is one of the easiest ways to generate extra cash in a season, and Nemanja Bjelica is an asset than can help make that dream come true. In a worst case scenario, Bjelica’s production to cost ratio should be incredibly easy to move at next season’s trade deadline if the Kings find themselves on the outside of the postseason race. He’s likely sticking around.
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Perhaps no player’s short-term and long-term financial hopes have been more affected by the hiatus than Bogdan Bogdanovic. Coming into the league as an older rookie, Bogdanovic signed a lucrative 3-year, $27 million deal with the Sacramento Kings, but his real hope for a big payday was always in his second contract. He’ll turn 28 before next season begins, meaning a three or four year agreement will take him past his prime and into the twilight of his NBA career. Prior to the shutdown, experts believed that at least one organization with plenty of cap space would throw a ton of cash at Bogdan, as he’s one of of the best players in an extremely weak free agent class, and that his salary could top the $20 million per year range. Instead, the salary cap may collapse and teams may choose to be conservative with their space in anticipation of the much better 2021 group. Bogdanovic may not see any attractive offer sheets. If that’s the case, the original 4-year, $51 million player extension that the Kings originally proposed may be the best that Bogdan can do in these unprecedented times.
All of those factors may end up working as a positive for the Kings, as Bogdanovic is a restricted free agent and the team holds the right to match any offer sheet sent his way. However, in a similar, if more high stakes situation to Nemanja Bjelica’s contract, the Kings may be in a monetary pickle by the time the Bogdanovic decision comes around. Assuming that Jabari Parker opts in, Nemanja Bjelica is kept around for another year, and the Kings stay around the 12th pick in the draft, they’ll have approximately $99.8 million in committed salary and only 10 rostered players at the start of the offseason.
| Player | 20-21 Salary |
| Buddy Hield | $24,431,818 |
| Harrison Barnes | $22,215,909 |
| Cory Joseph | $12,600,000 |
| Marvin Bagley | $8,963,640 |
| De’Aaron Fox | $8,099,627 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $7,150,000 |
| Jabari Parker | $6,500,000 |
| Richaun Holmes | $5,005,350 |
| First Round Draft Pick | $3,364,600 |
| Justin James | $1,517,981 |
| Total | $99,848,925 |
In a normal year, the Bogdanovic question would be as easily answered as saying that the Kings can go as far above the salary cap as they would like to retain their restricted free agent, and while that fact hasn’t wavered in its veracity, the situation is anything but normal. Too many decisions have yet to be made by Adam Silver and the NBA Players Association to be able to determine exactly how much the salary cap will be reduced due to the league’s hiatus, but there’s no doubt that a major impact will be felt. The cap and luxury tax are both linked to Basketball Related Income, and with an estimated 40% of the league’s revenue stemming from fans attending games in person, the shutdown’s repercussions will be massive.
Over the last four years, the luxury tax has drifted from 119% to 121% of the league’s mandated salary cap. In a hypothetical situation, if the salary cap were to drop to an even $100 million, a very possible outcome at this point in time, the luxury tax threshold would sit somewhere in the $120 million range. That would grant the Kings around $20 million to retain Bogdanovic, sign any second round selections who showed potential, use any part of their mid-level exception (currently projected to be $9.8 million – also dependent on the BRI projection), and to fill out any remaining open roster spots. If just one team gets feisty and sends a high-dollar offer Bogdanovic’s way, the Kings may be forced to weigh the tragedy of seeing Bogi walk for nothing versus the potential of paying the luxury tax for a team that won’t be contending for a championship.
The Sacramento Kings have some difficult decisions ahead of them, both from ownership’s and the front office’s point of view. They are a team pursuing two paradoxical paths: making the playoffs for the first time in 14 years and not overspending on a non-contender after losing millions of dollars in revenue . It’s entirely possible that the Kings will be forced to sacrifice on-court production on the altar of business sustainability in the coming months.
Oh man, and I just posted my random blow it all up thought exercise in a different defunct thread.
Not that you asked, but….
Okay, this is a random place to put something like this, but I couldn’t decide on an active thread that would make more sense. In the past it would have been a FanPost. But here is a silly exercise I decided to throw together. My task? To completely turn over the roster while trying to make the team a playoff contender now and decently well set up for the future. I wanted to be realistic in both trade returns and trade partner needs. For draft picks, I used this mock draft for reference on who may be available (https://theathletic.com/1684759/2020/03/19/vecenie-2020-nba-mock-draft-version-4-0-frozen-in-time/). So, here you go:
Blow it up
Fox for Robinson, Ntilikina, 2020 LAC 1st, 2021 NYK 1st
Hield for Claxton/Prince/2020 PHI 1st
Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes for Horford, Milton, Micic
Bogdanovich (S&T), Joseph, #12 for Holiday, NAW
Bagley for Anderson, UTH 1st (2021 7-14, 2022 7-30, 2023 4-30, 2024 2-30)
2020 Picks:
#20 Kira Lewis Jr.
#27 Pokusevski (stash, send daily shipments of protein powder and strength bands.)
#34 Killian Tillie
#35 N’Doye
#43 Riller or Flynn (2-way)
#53 Maker (2-way)
FA signings:
Juancho Hernangomez
Kyle O’Quinn
Holiday/Micic/Lewis Jr.
Milton/Ntilikina/NAW
Prince/Anderson/N’Doye
Horford/Hernangomez/Claxton
Robinson/O’Quinn/Tillie
2-way Grant Riller/Malachi Flynn, Makur Maker.
Euro rights Pokusevski
2021 1st round picks: Own, Knicks, UTH (Most likely to convey in 2022)
I’m no real fan of Bagley, but that seems awfully low for his value. Kyle Anderson and likely Utah’s non lottery 2021 pick? Am I reading that correctly?
No, you’re reading it correctly. Anderson is mostly just salary match. I’m thinking that pick is in the late-teens. It’s definitely a little light for him but I’d be willing to do it in what could be a historically loaded draft as that pick will likely convey in 2022. It’s protected 1-7 & 15-30 in 2020 & 2021. Then protected 1-6 in 2022. I’d expect the pick to be somewhere #20-ish in 2022. Really, I was looking for a young team on the right timeline that would be willing to take a chance on his upside. Obviously, I’d happily take more. What do you think he could fetch if they were to unload him? Originally, I was looking to trade Bagley & #12 for a quality wing, but I didn’t find a package I thought would make sense on all sides. One option could be something big like going after Ingram, but I don’t think the Pelican’s would be interested in moving him. I think they’re beyond that place in their development to wait on Bagley and are now expecting to move consistently upward.
I’d be hoping for something like Buddy, Bagley and this year’s #12 to Philly for Harris and Thybulle.
Ideally I’d do Buddy, Bagley, and #12 for Beal, but I don’t think the Wiz do it.
Yeah, I’m not at all a Harris fan on his deal. I think he went from underrated to vastly overrated in one year. For example, I’d much rather have Horford on 3/$80MM (after this season) than Harris on his 4/$150MM. I’m not much of a Barnes fan, but I’d also much rather have Barnes on his deal than Harris on his.
All that said, the bigger issue with that deal IMO is giving up most/all of the Kings assets (such as they are) without adding any of the playmaking/facilitating ability they’re sorely lacking. Harris is an ISO black hole. Adding Thybulle’s perimeter defense is great from a young cheap guy will some offensive upside. But he isn’t a creator at all. Personally, I’m primarily hunting BBIQ and passing. But if you want to try to slot Thybulle in instead of Milton in that Sixers deal, I’m cool.
I certainly much prefer the Beal deal, but I agree that the Wizards wouldn’t do that.
I guess I prefer Harris to Buddy. I’d slot Harris in at the 4 and Barnes at the 3. To me they are interchangeable and give you a significant 3 wing threat with Bogi at the SG. The deal lets you lock up Bogi and Fox long term with core of Barnes and Harris for the next few seasons.
Thybulle is what I like about the deal. He becomes your 6th man and lock down defender on a rookie deal. It’s now a wing league and the Kings would be loaded at positions 2-4.
Harris’s contract is just soooooo bad. I’m simply not down with giving that much money to a guy that doesn’t really do the primary things that makes teammates better (ie. facilitation/creating for others, team defense, rim protection.) and doesn’t really provide any of the skills the Kings are missing. He’s a taller (good!), worse-shooting (bad), version of Buddy at nearly 2x the price (extremely bad).
LIke I said, Thybulle is a good get, though if he’s your 6th man and Bogdan is starting then you have nearly acceptable creation-ability in the starting 5 but absolutely zero in the second unit.
Going back to the broken record, my question is always where are the Kings going to get their creators? They continue to collect decent-good 4-8 types. The question is where are the 1 & 2 types going to come from? Personally, I think nearly every move should be judged up against that question. It’s fine if the answer is simply an asset management shuffle, or a cap clear, or a lottery ticket acquisition. They all don’t have to be the final big move, but they have to reasonably move you towards that.
If we’re going to sacrifice anyone for financial reasons, I’d prefer it to be Buddy “Fuck It”.
I’d rather it’d be our GM and coach.
Because of likely financial crunch, they aren’t going anywhere. No one is getting fired, or at least fired and then replaced.
Oh yeah I know. I was just trying to make a joke.
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I’m hopeful this means other orgs also need to make difficult roster decisions and the Kings can somehow benefit.
I really think small markets, like the Kings, are gonna be the one’s feeling the pinch. If there were ever a time for any or all major sports leagues to contract, this would be the time.
This will be a rough time for leagues & teams, but I doubt that there’ll be any contraction in the NBA, NFL, NHL or MLB (Idk enough about MLS to speculate about it).
I really don’t know, but like I said, if there were a time for contraction, this would be it. I wonder if we will see any franchises in the pro leagues being up for sale in the next few months? That might be an indication of things to come.
I think contraction would look too bad for those 4 leagues to do it. Also, the increased revenues for those 4 leagues in the years before the pandemic means that should be able to weather the lost $ for awhile.
I heard that the NY Mets were for sale even before the pandemic, so they’ll probably be the 1st indicator for future sales. I’m assuming the pandemic will lessen the amount of $ any team would be sold for.
I agree that increased revenue has helped owners, but that is mainly due to broadcasting deals, which are now moot. I’d also warn that recent team purchases, Kings included, are not individual buys. Vivek bought the team with OPM. His neck is on the line for a lot of other people’s investments, some of which may be handicapped with the recent turn of events. I’d put money on the Kings being leveraged to up to their eyeballs with the team and surrounding properties (hotel) all being apart of the same ball of wax, and that is not a hunch.
My understanding is that the leagues can recover some of the broadcasting $ if they (re)start their seasons, which is why they haven’t officially canceled their seasons yet.
The Kings could be in trouble financially, which makes the refunds they’re offering surprising (but they’re the right thing to do, so kudos to the Kings). However, I don’t think that it can be said that teams are definitely in trouble unless they declare bankruptcy.
Interesting thought. When I saw Rob’s comment on the lease as an anchor holding the franchise here, I wondered to myself what insolvency in the pandemic does to the lease terms? This could be an issue for a number of teams, but as we all know there are a couple cities looking for a franchise and what better than a short sale?
wait…. there’s a (small) chance (itty bitty, probably a statistical anomoly), small chance that Vivek sells due to the impacts of COVID?
Even a pandemic has positives? who knew?
First of all, great write-up Tim, I’ve been waiting for this issue to come up.
My 2 cents:
1. Free agency money is gonna be sparce this summer. There are just too many unknowns in the future and a lack of income in the present. Mid and small markets are gonna feel the crunch.
2. This means Parker is wearing Kings Red next year.
3. Bogi is gonna wish he took the Kings extension this past fall. I don’t feel the teams with space are gonna be spending this summer. This also means most players with a PO are gonna be opting in. Bogi may get a below “normal” market offer and the Kings had better match. If they don’t it means they are broke, we are fucked, and #4 sucks even more.
4. If the Kings don’t intend to match Bogi, they will likely opt out of Nemanja’s deal, and that will be the kiss of death to this franchise making any movement to being relevant. IMO, Nemanja’s team option date, which be subject to change with the crazy Covid circumstances, will be the indicator to the team’s future. The only reason they would decline his option is financial. His contract is below market value and his production is not easily replaced. He is the Kings’ canary in the cole mine.
5. The Kings have one 1st rounder and THREE 2nd rounders. A slight indication of the foreseeable future is what they do with those 2nd round picks. If they sell them off, trade for good old Cash Considerations, or draft Vlade’s godchild’s second cousin in Europe, it might mean free agency is gonna hurt.
My only nit to pick here is that any additional financial issues are likely limited to 2020-2021. With the entire world (possibly minus some countries I could name with largish populations of anti-intellectual, anti-science, antivax people and their incompetent leadership) working on a vaccine, it seems very likely that one exists by late 2021. Attendance might possibly be down some due to economic factors, but the social and safety reasons are gone at that point, and people are desperately going to want to return to normalcy.
The other thing is that if the cap drops this season, multi-year deals starting in 2020 might end up being a bargain in the years to come. I actually think this might be the year for teams to go bargain hunting, assume next season will be some or all of a washout (which it was going to be for the KANGZ anyway) and then starting in 2021 those contracts are a bargain.
The hangup in my plan is if teams adjust contracts to be a percentage of the cap rather than a dollar amount, as a way of not squeezing unlucky free agents this season.
How is this going to affect Gyles availability? Will he be more in demand because he’ll come cheap or will the risks outweigh the upside in which case the Kings could resign him without any other suitors in the mix?
Getting Harris would be huge. It Would be the best player the team has acquired in 15 years. People forget he was option 1 on that Clips team. In Philly, Tobias was 3 option. Philly is focused on Simmons being the Number 1 option. Embiid second.
Harris will have an opportunity to be the man in Sac. Also, the best SF the team had ever landed.
Getting Richardson as well, would be a coup. A fantastic defender and would be fantastic backing up Bogdan.
I love the trade and hope it come to fruition.
Fox, Bogdan and Tobias is a lot of offense. Holmes/Bagley should be good for 30-35 pts and another 20-25 boards.
Harris is actually really similar in overall impact to Rudy Gay. A bit more efficient scorer. A bit worse defender. Very similar ball-stopping ISO tendencies.
Great comparison.
I’m actually kind of amazed at what a poor job they’ve done out there. I mean, they’ve spent the past 2 seasons unloading assets and cap space and have only gotten worse. They had a team (with Redick, Saric, RoCo, etc.) that complemented their stars perfectly. But instead of simply trying to improve on that model, they decided to throw the concept of “complementary” skillsets out the window and pick up whatever “stars” were on the market. The Butler trade was a gambit, but at least for all his constant malcontentedness Butler is a difference maker and two-way player. The Harris trade was terrible from the start. Maxing him just compounded it. They’re paying him $30MM to essentially do a less team-friendly version of what Saric did for $3MM (comparison). Horford is a good player, but the entire point of Horford is his ability as a small ball C so you can clear the Key by forcing the opponents C to extend. Playing him with Embiid just strips him of his advantages. They’ve essentially found a way to compile 5 good-to-great players and not optimize any of them.
“Also, the best SF the team had ever landed.”
You think Harris is better than Artest?
It was already clear at the start of the season that China would have a yuge effect on the salary cap.
(I don’t do sarcasm font)
Between China & the pandemic, I would definitely expect the NBA cap to go down significantly.
If they would only cook their bats properly…
How hard can it be to cork a bat properly?
I know a guy who can help with that
https://s2.dmcdn.net/v/6zoPv1MPLQECTXgrI/x1080
Removed from context these three players aren’t really a cap issue, even Jabari (You could do much worse as a flyer for a year). Bjelica is arguably Vlade’s best offseason signing over his tenure, and the Kings should retain him on the simple fact they can get something for him in January or he will be a contributor to a playoff hopeful Sacramento. Bogdan will be worth his contract I expect, and even if he ends up a slightly underperforming asset, his strengths as a playmaker/ adequete ball hander at a position of scarcity will remain attractive. Any playoff team could use him as he requires little to no adjustment in fit. Even with age considering and positional overlap I don’t think the Kings have much a choice but to retain.
The problems stem elsewhere on this roster. The difficult debates many suggested should have been had before this summers expenditures, weren’t. Barnes I fully expect would have taken his option if the Kings hadn’t offered an inside extension prior. Instead of ending that past deal he is in year one of a contract he wouldn’t be receiving this offseason. It doesn’t help that was justified in large part in him playing a position he isn’t best suited for. It is declining thankfully, but it will possibly be the seminal deal in restricting this team being more aspirational in their timeline.
The same can be said on Hield. Many as well advocated that the serious discussion of Bogdan vs Buddy had to be had last summer, and likely should have resulted in one being traded. After the Buddy expectations contractually the franchise should have likely sought suitors. I will admit the number agreed upon I swallowed and didn’t think it would that costly, but the season in part showed otherwise. The original assessment that Buddy should have been traded likely has the more apt one.
Hield could be somewhat rectified and I hope the Kings seek deals this summer as even if the return is worse than it would have been a year prior, it still could make a lot of sense. Still teams I think themselves, value Bogdan more and know the Kings intentions. They have less leverage in moving Hield now that Bogdan has surpassed him on the Kings evaluation. But even if Hield is moved with a good return, it won’t guarantee maneuverability as the Kings will have to garner another 20 million player or two high mid levels etc.
I think this teams only hope is in internal development and hitting gold in the draft this summer. Cap wise they are locked in with few resources to escape that. It isn’t awful. Hield again could be moved for something worthwhile, the draft has little consensus, with many wishing to be in the Kings likely range because so. I think the slew of 2nds in this class could actually muster rotation players. But they haven’t made this easy for themselves.
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It will be interesting to see how the original deal the Kings and the city made affects things moving forward. Basically all the financing mechanisms were built around the idea that people would be able to actually go to the arena. I’m not an expert on all that financing mumbo jumbo, but if the city issued bonds tied to future revenue generated by increased commerce associated with the arena, then one would thing the City of Sacramento could be exposed. I could be way off base on this, so if anybody has any insight on the subject holla at ya boy.
I have some thoughts on this, though they are completely butt-pulled and have little real analytics behind them. Mileage may vary and what ever other disclaimers may be applicable.
In regards to the financing, the half that was financed via the parking / meter concessions (bonds?) shouldn’t be too compromised due to big Government being a huge financial contributor to the city and county’s economy. Thousands are still working in the downtown area (including industry, shipping, etc.) This area has a pretty strong financial history rich with industry and agriculture as well and, despite some historical outliers (cholera, the housing bubble, COVID-19 to name a few) has typically thrived and shown resilience when challenged.
Additionally, the “quarantine” process is nearing its end (for now.) We might not have concerts, pro sports or festivals until further notice but people will once again be flocking in droves to the grid for their eats, exercise, and everything else. And those other things will be back before too long as well, I have no doubt.
While I’m certain that there are going to be some areas hit harder by the impending economic shit storm, I really do believe that Sacramento and its surrounding areas are better prepared to recover than, say, Bentonville, Arkansas or even an NBA city like New Orleans, which depends heavily on tourism. We’ll probably suffer more than Chicago, perhaps, but I’m not worried about losing our team or the arena, etc. If we struggle being able to afford marquee players for our pro franchise I can live with that, like I have been for the past 15 yrs. as a Kings fan.
serious question… Is Bjelica significantly better than Ryan Anderson? They seem to bring similar size, skillsets, and age. After signing his horrible contract, passed around and stretched, Anderson signed a veteran minimum to rejoin the Rockets.
Their skillsets differ in a few ways. Bjelica is a capable ballhandler and passer. Anderson isn’t. Bjelica is also a bit better defender (lowest bar ever). Anderson, at one point, was a decent rebounder but not anymore. He used to be decently athletic, but his constant injuries have really robbed him of that. Anderson is really just a floor stretcher (when he’s healthy) now. Bjelica contributes in a few more ways.
sorry for asking. Would a sign-and-trade deal work for Bjelica? I.e. pressure him into a longer term contract, find a team where he fits and that might offer him this 3yr contract. In return, the Kings could receive some draft capital of sorts. Or would they have to take back a contract of similar volume?
That won’t work under his current contract. They either pick up his team option or they don’t. I don’t believe there is any other way to restructure his deal.
ok, thank you. Just was wondering that if he feels he should earn substantially more than the 7mil next year, management could threaten to pick up the option. But before signing him, they might offer him the alternative of signing a three year contract with the intention to trade him to his preferred destination (the option would prevent him from going there directly). Idea was that he on a three year contract might be a more valuable asset than his expiring contract. I also don’t think he would move the needle for a contender down the road – so doing such a sign-and-trade (if possible) would maximise his asset value for the Kings compared to the alternative of a mid-season trade. but that’s obviously highly speculative.
What team would throw a 20 million dollar contract bogi way. Just like the Kings will be impacted by this so is every other team. I think frugality will be the likely scenario.
My guess is bogda is signs a 1 year deal with a 2nd year player option deal to stay in Sacramento and let all the crazy sort itself out.
Agreed. He might even sign the QO.
Badge Legend