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Marvin Bagley did not fare well in ESPN’s NBA Sophomores Ranking

ESPN doesn't believe Marvin Bagley has lived up to his pre-draft potential. Yet.
By | 153 Comments | Jun 30, 2020

Credit: Kimani Okearah

The 2018 NBA Draft was an unfortunate watershed moment for the Sacramento Kings. We’ve hashed this saga out hundreds of times before, so to make a long story short: Vlade Divac had an opportunity to draft Luka Doncic and effectively erase his reputation as a poor general manager while being directly responsible for turning this franchise around, and he just missed on it. He didn’t think Luka Doncic was as good as everyone else did.

Divac selected Marvin Bagley with the 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, and after a promising rookie season, Bagley’s sophomore campaign has been littered with injuries and setbacks.

At this stage in Bagley’s career, considering how much court time he’s missed, it’s hard to project what his prime looks like. He’ll be the single most intriguing King when the NBA returns at the end of July, and for better or worse, how he performs in those 8 games in Orlando will heavily influence his career narrative as the organization heads into an immensely important offseason for this young core.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton and Mike Schmitz took a fresh look at the 2018 NBA Draft by ranking sophomore players by star potential.

Both Pelton and Schmitz agree that Luka Doncic is in a class of his own. He’s probably the best young player in the entire NBA regardless of draft class. Zion Williamson is the only other player in the conversation.

Where analysts rank Doncic among young NBA players isn’t very compelling. We all know the answers there.

Where analysts rank Marvin Bagley is much more interesting as I often find myself wondering the same thing. We know Bagley isn’t Doncic, but what can he be, and is that worth building around? These are questions the Kings have to answer, and topics Kings fans discuss all the time.

Pelton and Schmitz both ranked their top-10 NBA sophomores. Pelton didn’t have Bagley on his list at all, opting for Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., Deandre Ayton, Devonte’ Graham, Mitchell Robinson, Donte DiVincenzo, Duncan Robinson, and Mikal Bridges over the Duke big man.

Schmitz gave Bagley the nod at no. 10 on his rankings.

I went with Bagley at No. 10. I wasn’t all that high on him as an elite prospect heading into the draft, as bigs who don’t make 3s consistently, create for others or defend at a high level aren’t what teams tend to look for. Still, I think Bagley has a bright future as a mismatch, scoring center given his rare fluidity and ability to handle at 6-foot-11. Although not always efficient, he’s still averaging 21.0 points (49.7% FGs), 10.8 rebounds (3.1 fouls), and 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes through 75 NBA games. Watching him push off the break and spin past Rudy Gobert for a finish makes me wonder what he could look like in a year or two once he improves as a shooter and decision-maker.

I can’t disagree with the assessment from Schmitz here. That is the conundrum with Bagley. He’s best utilized as an interior center offensively, but he doesn’t have the strength or defensive skills to put him in that position for significant stretches. If you play him with another interior center like Holmes or Len, you can hide his defensive deficiencies, but all of your offensive spacing goes away with it.

The Kings have tried to find a solution to this problem. Dewayne Dedmon was supposed the be the defensive floor spacer that would allow Bagley to focus on what he can do while hiding what he can’t, but Dedmon seemingly forgot how to play basketball here. There just isn’t an abundance of modern NBA bigs that can space the floor and defend the rim, and the emergence of Richaun Holmes at center on a team friendly contract complicates optimizing Bagley even more.

I wouldn’t take Pelton or Schmitz’s word as gospel, but I find value in reading outside voices whether I agree with them or not. It’s important to check your perception once in a while. In this case, it seems like the majority agree on Marvin Bagley: It hasn’t always been great, and the injuries complicate everything, but it’s too early to call.

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RikSmits
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June 30, 2020 9:11 am

I’m trying, but I just don’t see Marvin as a Center. He lacks the frame and strength, and I think if he somehow develops it, he likely won’t retain his speed, explosiveness and agility. Defensively, he’s hard to watch because he lacks the court vision and BBIQ to be a good team defender and a plus defender in general.
 
His best shot is at PF, IMO, but he must have a reliably outside shot for that to happen. And that is definitely possible. Some passing ability/willingness would help too.
 

as bigs who don’t make 3s consistently, create for others or defend at a high level aren’t what teams tend to look for. 

Someone held Vlade’s beer…
 

TheFifthMookie
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June 30, 2020 9:23 am
Reply to  RikSmits

 he lacks the court vision 

 
is basically my main critique of MBIII as an NBA player from start to finish.

richie88
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June 30, 2020 4:07 pm
Reply to  TheFifthMookie

He also lacks other abilities that are vital in today’s NBA.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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June 30, 2020 9:24 am
Reply to  RikSmits

I could see him being used at center but only if he is paired with a jack of all trades stretch four/wing. Think Stoudemire on the Suns. He definitely needs to get better defensively, but I do think that area is more improvable than his ability to stretch the floor.
 
Not that I’m advocating for it but if the Kings could get Winslow and put him at the 3 and move Barnes to the four, it could work. Although grossly overpaid, Tobias Harris is another option. It would take moving Buddy, but a lineup of Fox, Bogi, Barnes, Harris, and Bagley could have a future. Again, this is all determined on Bagley’s defense.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 9:49 am
Reply to  TonyXypteras

I think Markkanen is a pretty interesting buy low-ish candidate if he, in fact, is seen as a piece to move by the Bulls. But I really don’t see a future timeline where he and Bagley ever develop into anything but a complete defensive disaster as a front court pairing.

AirmaxPG
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June 30, 2020 12:56 pm

What about Mo Bamba? I have no idea if he’ll be available, but Orlando does have quite a few big men. Bamba has defensive upside, and has shown some ability to shoot the 3.
 
I have no idea what a trade for Bamba could look like, but just purely from a fit perspective that’s the type of trade I would be looking for if the FO wants to maximize Bagley.

RikSmits
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June 30, 2020 9:55 am
Reply to  TonyXypteras

is turning him into a perimeter player the best use of his skill set?

There is no “best use” for his skill set in today’s basketball, IMO, and that is exactly the problem, especially at the spot you got him.
 
Also, without an outside shot that defenders will respect, it will be that much harder for him to take guys off the bounce, especially if he can’t go right.

LLcoolRay
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June 30, 2020 12:04 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Exactly my thoughts since before we drafted him. Just very difficult to find a spot on the floor for him in the modern game.

Roaddog
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June 30, 2020 4:48 pm
Reply to  TonyXypteras

We could surround him with all pro shooters, but it won’t matter much if he won’t pass it to them imo. I am sure there is a strategic argument that says spacing is good regardless of (lack of) passing, but I can’t make it. Can someone else?

RobHessing
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June 30, 2020 9:48 am
Reply to  RikSmits

Yep, yep, yep. Whether he is called a 4 or a 5, a perimeter game and floor vision will be a must.
 

Ifeanyi
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June 30, 2020 11:27 am
Reply to  RobHessing

And tbh if I had to choose between those two skillsets developing I think I’d rather have the floor vision. I just salivate over the idea of bagley being able to get open shots for his teammates from the paint (or high post) while still calling his own number when appropriate.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 11:31 am
Reply to  Ifeanyi

Unfortunately, I don’t really believe things like floor vision can really be meaningfully improved at this point in his development.

Ifeanyi
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June 30, 2020 5:25 pm

your probably right 😭

Sacto_J
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June 30, 2020 11:37 am
Reply to  Ifeanyi

I just salivate. Which, according to my supervisor, is very unprofessional…

Hozr
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June 30, 2020 1:07 pm
Reply to  Sacto_J

And I hear it may be a new COVID-19 symptom.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 9:18 am

Now that Grant is gone, will anyone defend this draft selection?

CoreyBrewersD
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June 30, 2020 4:00 pm
Reply to  Kosta

No one will dare break rank with management. If they try V&V will use 8 game tape delay thing to have old clips of Napear reasoning/defenses dubbed over any dissent. Sort of like 1954 Godzilla film!

ArsLegendi
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June 30, 2020 9:28 am

I will die mad about this.
 
We shouldn’t be talking about how to pair what should be a cornerstone player with a better version of himself to hide his flaws. We should be wearing purple jerseys with Doncic on the back.

GetOffaMyLawn
June 30, 2020 4:33 pm
Reply to  ArsLegendi

i would buy one of those

ArsLegendi
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July 1, 2020 3:31 pm
Reply to  ArsLegendi

If that’s Coach Bagley going through and downvoting everyone in here, in my defense, I do own a Bagley jersey.

ZillersCat
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June 30, 2020 9:34 am

There just isn’t an abundance of modern NBA bigs that can space the floor and defend the rim
 
Cousins could probably fit in another life?

HongKongKingsFan
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June 30, 2020 9:39 am

My opinion on Bagley-
He suits as PF, and Just don’t let him handle the ball, just let him to be assisted…
Look at the top 10 play from Brewer, almost half were assists to Bagleycomment imagecomment imagecomment image
 
If Bagley don’t touch the ball, his weakness(tunnel vision, low BBIQ, bad ball handling skill) can be hidden.
 
Most ideal case: Bagley becoming Bosh…….

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 10:00 am

I think this underrates elements of Bosh’s game a bit. I don’t see Bagley ever coming close to Bosh’s 11-12 Assist rate, nor do I think he’ll get especially close to Bosh as a defender. In general, Bosh was a pretty high BBIQ player. A guy you could actually run your offense through a bit.
 
Bagley is more like Amare (in terms of extreme high end ideal comparisons, though Bagley doesn’t have the violent athleticism, strength, and aggression of Amare. He’s obviously an elite athlete, but his is more built on agility and control). A guy you really just want finishing plays (or quickly attacking closeouts) and crashing boards.
 

Last edited 3 years ago by BestHyperboleEver
1951
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June 30, 2020 11:38 am

Sportsball history is weird. Bosh’s run with the super-Heat team has created this strange and misguided collective memory of him not being an elite level player.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 11:45 am
Reply to  1951

Which is funny, because to me that’s just a sign of what an incredible team player he was and how high his BBIQ was.

RobHessing
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June 30, 2020 9:55 am

The difference between bestcomment image
and bustcomment image
is ucomment image
 
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by RobHessing
Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:07 am
Reply to  RobHessing

If you were a GM:
 
Think about what you would have to give up in a trade for Luka Doncic.
 
Think about what you would have to give up in a trade for Marvin Bagley.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 10:13 am
Reply to  Kosta

I mean, there probably isn’t a trade package that gets you Doncic right now.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:23 am

Doncic for a Covid-19 vaccine. Who says no?

1951
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June 30, 2020 11:11 am
Reply to  Kosta

comment imagev

Otis
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July 1, 2020 9:41 am
Reply to  1951

I’m not saying this is the most perfect gif response ever, but it is.

RikSmits
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June 30, 2020 10:19 am
Reply to  Kosta

Think about what you would have to give up in a trade for Marvin Bagley.

All hope?

richie88
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June 30, 2020 4:22 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Depending on what the Kings got for Bagley, a Bagley trade could give me hope.

1951
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June 30, 2020 4:26 pm
Reply to  richie88

I’d settle for whatever sad return gets us a new GM! 😉

Chef
June 30, 2020 1:26 pm
Reply to  Kosta

Crazy to think that there are STILL fans who would draft Bags over Luka TODAY. I don’t know why, but I find their IQ offensive. Correct answer is plain as day and yet they refuse to acknowledge it.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 1:44 pm
Reply to  Chef

The purple tinted glasses are VERY strong for some people.

ZillersCat
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July 1, 2020 3:57 am

They are prescription .. I have to wear them

esnyds
June 30, 2020 5:04 pm
Reply to  Chef

this cannot be true.

CoreyBrewersD
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June 30, 2020 4:05 pm
Reply to  Kosta

Correction?
 
Think about what you would have to give up in a (to) trade for Marvin Bagley.
 

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 6:53 pm
Reply to  CoreyBrewersD

Ah, touché!
 

Last edited 3 years ago by Kosta
CoreyBrewersD
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June 30, 2020 7:01 pm
Reply to  Kosta

Honestly I don’t think he is that bad,I just couldn’t resist. I hope for his sake he is able to get his mind around what he is, and what he can be in the NBA. Fingers crossed for the young man, more than for the franchise.

infierno_de_baloncesto
June 30, 2020 10:12 am
Reply to  RobHessing

you could have said EU, which still works as Vlade is from the EU
 
edit. NVM Serbia has only applied for EU membership

Last edited 3 years ago by infierno_de_baloncesto
G-naps
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June 30, 2020 10:37 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I can point out another difference, look at the difference in “game day” attire in those pictures.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:59 am
Reply to  G-naps

Cold-blooded, damn! 🙂

RobHessing
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June 30, 2020 9:59 am

On the bright side, at least the Kings were included in a national NBA article. Progress!

Blake
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June 30, 2020 10:00 am

Hey all – the embed functionality for tweets and YouTube links is working again.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:04 am
Reply to  Blake

Thanks, Blake!
 
Hmm, that probably makes it difficult for us to Rickroll.

Dub_TC
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June 30, 2020 10:01 am

What a horrible, horrible miss. I’ll forever be pissed off about this.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 10:04 am

*deep breath* I think Bagley’s a bust. I hope he isn’t but I thought he’d be a bust when we drafted him, I got a couple glimmers of hope his rookie year and then this year between the injuries and some of the worst court vision and passing ability I’ve ever seen, I think it’s a wrap. I would love to be wrong, but I think any time spent trying to build around Bagley is ultimately going to be a waste of time.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 10:10 am

“Bust” is just such an amorphous term to me. He’s a bust in that I don’t think he’s likely to be anywhere close to the 2nd best player in his draft class. But I think he’s pretty likely, if health allows, to be a useful, productive NBA player. Honestly, the biggest “swing factor” IMO is probably developing a willingness to embrace a non-star role.
 
Maybe that’s what Fox was talking about.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:19 am

Yeah, to me it’s relative. People don’t discuss wether someone picked lower in the draft is a bust or not. He’s the 2nd pick in a good draft. To me that matters.
 
Getting a “useful, productive player” when several players picked after you are playing better is closer to the bust end of the spectrum.
 
But if the term “bust” is a problem, how about “draft failure”?
 
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by Kosta
Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:24 am
Reply to  Kosta

This makes it more of a criticism of Vlade and the front office, rather than Bagley himself.
 

richie88
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June 30, 2020 4:33 pm
Reply to  Kosta

I think the FO is mostly to blame for what will probably be a draft failure, but what seems like Bagley’s €œme 1st€ attitude also contributes to the failure.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 10:25 am
Reply to  Kosta

The decision to draft Bagley at 2 is absolutely a draft failure. I guess I just see that as more of a comment on the front office than on the individual player.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:29 am

Yeah

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 11:10 am

Is there an accepted universal definition of “bust”?
 
People have probably been arguing with different definitions ever since the term became popular. Like you said, “amorphous”
 
(Thanks for making me use the dictionary today, sir!)

1951
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June 30, 2020 11:13 am

This. Bust refers to the realized return on draft value. I don’t see Bagley ever recouping the draft value they had at the No. 2 spot.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 11:16 am
Reply to  1951

Pete D’Allessandro: “Vlade, I may have traded away Isaiah Thomas for peanuts, but he was the 60th pick!”

Chef
June 30, 2020 1:29 pm
Reply to  1951

At this point. I wish we never were in a position to draft Luka. Would have been much easier to live with.

RikSmits
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June 30, 2020 10:21 am

a useful, productive NBA player

Like, a Quincy Acy?
If you lower your expectations enough, you will never get disappointed!

Otis
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June 30, 2020 10:22 am

Completely agree. He’s got enough of a skillset to be a solid NBA player. Anything above that would be a bonus, IMO, and his value to the franchise should be analyzed accordingly.

RikSmits
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June 30, 2020 10:40 am
Reply to  Otis

This completely ignores things such as context and opportunity costs.
A pretty defeatist viewpoint, IMO.
Sorry if that sounds harsh.
 

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 10:43 am
Reply to  RikSmits

Not at all. But again, those are comments on the front office more than the player.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 10:23 am

I’m just not sure he can actually be productive in a way that meaningfully impacts winning and I’m not sure he currently has the mindset to except a support role on a team. To me bust simply implies that he will drastically under perform his draft slot in a very good draft. There’s a solid chance that every other player in the top-5 will be an all star (2 already have) at some point and other lottery players like SGA are already significantly better players. Right now Bagley is Darko and hopefully that can change.

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 10:28 am

Darko, eh?
 comment image

ZillersCat
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June 30, 2020 10:46 am
Reply to  Kosta

KingsHerald T-Shirts .. anyone ..
 
comment image

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 11:00 am
Reply to  ZillersCat

Is that you under the hood?

ZillersCat
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July 1, 2020 9:30 am
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I let my whiskers grow out in the pandemic.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 10:41 am

I mean, despite differing skill sets, and like all comps it isn’t perfect, but its really hard to come up with a better parallel than the ’84 draft at this point. From the draft positions to the court positions. Heck, if you really wanted to you could relate Young to Stockton. Though their draft positions are way off.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 10:45 am

Yeah I mean it really seems eerily similar at this point with the caveat that I don’t think the high end will be as high (that would be almost impossible).

Adamsite
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June 30, 2020 10:46 am

I wouldn’t compare him to Darko. At this point he is closer to Greg Oden. Fun fact…Oden played 82 games in his first two season played (he sat out his “rookie” season), Bagley played in 75. Also, Oden statistically had a better sophomore season than Bagley.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 11:02 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I don’t mean Darko from a skill stand point or anything like that. I just mean the player taken number 2 in the draft that looks like a massive outlier among the other top-5 picks. And right now Bagley is the turd in the top-5 punch bowl of the 2018 draft.
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 11:15 am

Ahhh, got ya! I think one could also state Hasheem Thabeet as another example. The other 4 taken around him were Griffin, Harden, Tyreke, and Rubio.
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by Adamsite
ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 1:25 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Yeah sadly there are lots of other examples at the number two pick. We just seem to be adding to that (not so) storied history of mistakes.

Carl
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June 30, 2020 12:35 pm

I’m just not sure he can actually be productive in a way that meaningfully impacts winning and I’m not sure he currently has the mindset to except a support role on a team.

This. Bagley may never actually help a team win until he gets over his massively inflated view of himself.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 1:26 pm
Reply to  Carl

Yeah I think he’s probably talented enough to be productive and help a team win but not until he completely changes his game and mindset. And does anybody really think that’ll happen with the Kings? I sure don’t.

TheEffortPolice
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June 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Reply to  Carl

And that’s never going to happen. You can develop a three point shot, you can develop defensively (sort of, he’s never going to be anything more than serviceable, but he can get better).
 
But he’s never going to develop a passing mentality. You can tell his camp has been bludgeoning the selfish playing style into him his entire life, and he seems to relish that environment.
 
He’s not going to change.

RobHessing
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June 30, 2020 10:39 am

Pervis Ellison was a bust for the Kings, but not a bust when you look at his overall career.
I don’t see a scenario where Bagley goes on to have a productive but pedestrian career for the Sacramento Kings. He will either ascend to a higher level of play or become and NBA journeyman, fetching little in trade. In that regard he will be boom or bust for the Kings, regardless of what he goes on to do elsewhere. But much like Ellison, he may wind up only regarded as a bust in Sacramento.

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June 30, 2020 10:53 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Yup, I fully expect him to be wearing another uniform in the coming seasons and putting up numbers he never approached while in Sac. Just watch him pull a Jermaine O’Neal.

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June 30, 2020 12:38 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I don’t see it. O’Neal never got a chance to play any minutes until his fifth season. Bagley has played plenty of minutes when healthy and has shown little aside from inefficient high volume scoring. Right now, Bagley is Jabari Parker.
 

Last edited 3 years ago by Carl
richie88
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June 30, 2020 4:43 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

He’ll probably be considered a bust by everyone. Unless his career is much better than I expect it to be, he’ll probably be mentioned alongside Bowie & Darko (though he’ll probably be better than Darko).

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June 30, 2020 1:53 pm

See, I think he will end up a productive player at first glance, but won’t actually be useful.
 
Sort of like Okafor, Randle empty calories. He might polish up the things he’s all about, but it won’t lead to anything. There’s no scenario in my mind where his skillset becomes useful in today’s NBA, even if he is putting up counting stats.

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June 30, 2020 2:18 pm

Randle is a useful player if used correctly. Okafor’s issue is that he’s a space killer and doesn’t defend at all.
 
Like I said, the key to Bagley being useful is if he’s able to embrace a non-star role. I suspect, as others have suggested, that’s unlikely to happen early in his career or in Sacramento.

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June 30, 2020 4:30 pm

In such a strong draft (& Luka obviously being the best choice at #2 even before the draft), only being €œa useful, productive NBA player€ would make Bagley a bust. I’m not even sure if he’ll even be €œa useful, productive NBA player€ (unless you mean that he’ll be a good bench scorer, which is an outcome I can envision).

1951
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June 30, 2020 10:40 am

Dear ViVlade:
 comment image

Greg
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June 30, 2020 10:42 am

Honestly all I want is for Bagley to be good enough for us to say “Yeah he isn’t Luka and that sucks but he’s really good and he helps the Kings.” What’s sad is I’m not sure if or when he’ll get there.

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June 30, 2020 10:48 am
Reply to  Greg

At what point is the line drawn in the sand where fans can come to somewhat of an agreement with “yeah hes good for the Kings” or “he is not good for the Kings”?
 
 
Personally I give him 20 games into next season. If he isnt playing 15 of those first 20 games then in my eyes he “is not good for the Kings”

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 11:04 am
Reply to  Greg

I mean right now we have almost zero evidence he’ll get there. The thing that’s weird to me is that AT THE TIME the comps to Jabari Parker and Michael Beasley and some of these other power forwards who can’t shoot or defend were really obvious and yet the Kings still took him second.

1951
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June 30, 2020 11:07 am
Reply to  Greg

Image retaining a FO for which that is the current bar for measuring performance: “Well, they may have royally screwed up, but there is still a slim chance for some mitigation, so we are all good!”
 
I mean, how many independently fireable offenses can one GM’s regime have?
 comment image
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by 1951
Kosta
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June 30, 2020 11:18 am
Reply to  1951

Vivek’s answer to your question: “Google.”

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 11:33 am
Reply to  1951

Setting comically low bars for this org (and still not meeting them) is one of the defining characteristics of the Kings and us fans.

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June 30, 2020 4:42 pm

I feel like in these times of turmoil, the KANGZ Scale of grading this organization is the only constant in my life.
 

Last edited 3 years ago by ForKingsandCountry
ZillersCat
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June 30, 2020 10:42 am

Bagley .. and being successful .. not so much.
comment image
 

Last edited 3 years ago by ZillersCat
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June 30, 2020 10:51 am

My top 10
 
1. Doncic
2. Young
3. Jackson Jr.
4. Gilgeous-Alexander
5. Ayton
6. Sexton
7. Bagley
8. Robinson
9. Graham
10. Miles Bridges

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 11:02 am
Reply to  BabyGiraffe

Hey, didn’t we originally have the 7th pick anyway?
 
Just pretend we never won the 2nd pick in the lottery and we’re good!
 
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by Kosta
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June 30, 2020 11:27 am
Reply to  TonyXypteras

Yup, God granted us the #7 pick, but Satan moved us up to #2.

RobHessing
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June 30, 2020 11:47 am
Reply to  Adamsite

The Lawd gifeth, and the Vlawd taketh away.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 1:28 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

At what point does the Vlawd stop takething away?

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 1:29 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Giveth away, even. 🙂

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 11:27 am
Reply to  BabyGiraffe

I’m with you through the top 5. But if we’re ranking by star potential Porter Jr would absolutely be in there. And I probably wouldn’t have Sexton or Miles.

1951
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June 30, 2020 11:28 am
Reply to  BabyGiraffe

So, you take Bagley over Carter and Porter right now?

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July 1, 2020 5:58 am
Reply to  BabyGiraffe

This list looks more like a how good are they now and puts no importance on upside. Alexander is a great example of that. Does anyone think Alexander will ever dream of sniffing an all star appearance? I don’t. Don’t get me wrong he is a great fit in player who is above average on everything with no elite skill. Players like Bagley and Ayton still have way more upside then him. I think Bagley has a great chance at getting back into this top 5 next year. Bagley is averaging 20 and 10 per 36 in his short career. It is hard to argue with people who say that even if he puts up these numbers for a season that they will be empty stats. Just so I can understand people on that side of the argument ill ask you this question. Is there anyone in the NBA right now who is averaging 20 and 10 that you think Gilgeous-Alexander is better than?

BestHyperboleEver
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July 1, 2020 9:50 am
Reply to  Lucky_Guy

I don’t see any reason to think Bagley has any more upside than SGA. SGA is roughly the same age, significantly better now, has better positional size, offers more versatility, and plays more important NBA roles as a playmaker and plus defender across all perimeter positions.
 
Since there are only 2 NBA players that are averaging 20/10 right now (Jokic and Giannis), I suppose no, SGA isn’t better than any of them. But we also know Bagley doesn’t show any of the playmaking and/or defensive abilities that make those guys special. If we were to play the ridiculous pts/rebs-per-36-and-ignore-everything-else game, then we get luminaries like Boban & Tacko. In fact, here’s the complete list. Worth noting, Bagley doesn’t technically qualify this year (19.9/10.5).
 
Tacko Fall (in 24 total minutes!)
Boban
Giannis
Jonas Valanciunas
Embiid
Ayton
Metu
Vucevic
KAT
Jokic
Love
Collins
Porzingis
Ibaka
Randle
Wood
Luka
 
I’d say 5 of those guys are clearly better than SGA (Giannis, Embiid, KAT, Jokic, Luka). Maayyyybbbeee Vucevic. But all of those guys offer some combination of defense, passing, and spacing that Bagley has yet to hint at.
 
Ultimately, a player, any player at any position, that doesn’t create (for self and others) and/or defend at a high level simply has a cap on their ceiling. And Bagley hasn’t shown much aptitude for either. At the moment, because he hasn’t shown any reason to think he’ll ever be much of a passer or any more than a vaguely average-ish defender, he’s looking like his cap may very well be something Julius Randle-y without the passing. How valuable is that?
 
 

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July 1, 2020 10:39 am
Reply to  Lucky_Guy

I think Alexander will absolutely make an all star team and regardless of his upside, he’s already so much better than Bagley that I struggle to see him not being a better player.

Chent
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June 30, 2020 11:39 am

I thing Bagley can be a top 5 PF in the league type, although he needs to be able to stay on the court and still develop his game. Not comparing him to his draft class at all because that’s useless now, he still has loads of potential. He has to become a 33-35% deep shooter, average 20/10/3 and be neutral on defense.
 
The problem is, the Kings NEED another playmaker in the starting lineup because Fox alone is not enough to run an offense through. This is why I am so high on Avdija, he can really complement this team. I would also look to keep Alex Len and see if he can go back to shooting 3s.

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June 30, 2020 12:08 pm
Reply to  Chent

This is why I like Bogi as the starting two guard.

Chent
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June 30, 2020 12:28 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Same here, but Bogi is limited, I like him as a perimeter shooter/pnr threat, but I dont think Fox alone can be the only guy able to get into the paint with ability to playmake. Avdija with his size/ballhandling/passing can give us that third option, unfortunately that may not be realistic.

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June 30, 2020 4:55 pm
Reply to  Chent

He’ll need to shoot better than 33-35% from 3 to be a good floor spacer. I don’t think it’s likely that he’ll ever be a top 5 PF. JJJ’s the most likely player from his draft class to reach that goal (if Memphis plays JJJ at PF).

Chent
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June 30, 2020 7:08 pm
Reply to  richie88

Yea top 5 may be a little ambitious, maybe top 10? I didnt really think of Giannis/AD/Kawhi types that can all play the 4. My point is I think he can be really good, we just need to see him play way more than he has and actually improve, which should be a possible outcome. It’s hard to remember how young and gifted he is, and how much raw talent and ability he has already displayed (rookie year). Although flawed as a player he has had some great games as a rookie against good competition.

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June 30, 2020 11:50 pm
Reply to  Chent

I wish I had your optimism, but I don’t. He’s very athletic, but that’s the only strength I’ve seen. He might’ve become a star if Joerger was still the coach, but I think the current odds of him becoming a star are low.
 

Last edited 3 years ago by richie88
BestHyperboleEver
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July 1, 2020 10:06 am
Reply to  richie88

Yeah, he’s all physical projection at the moment.
 
He’s an elite athlete with uncommon agility for his size. His other elite attribute is his hands. I don’t think he gets enough credit for how soft his hands are both in catching passes/rebounds and shooting inside. He also has a great motor (which I put a lot of stock in).
 
But the BB specific skills and BBIQ we’ve seen from him in college and the pros aren’t special at this point.

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June 30, 2020 7:19 pm
Reply to  Chent

It’s sad that Vlade chose Bagley because he didn’t think Fox/Doncic would work. In actuality Fox/Bagley is probably worse since they’re both lack girth needed on defense and can’t stretch the floor on offense.

richie88
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June 30, 2020 11:53 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Is that the official reason they didn’t draft Luka? That’s idiotic. I like Fox, but Luka’s far better. Additionally, they probably could’ve coexisted well enough to be successful.
 
I think that Fox & Bagley could both become good enough at shooting 3’s to stretch the floor. However, that wouldn’t be enough to fix the FO’s mistake.
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by richie88
ForKingsandCountry
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July 1, 2020 10:40 am
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There have been about 8 official reasons why they didn’t draft Doncic and all of them are officially stupid.

Klam
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June 30, 2020 11:54 am

comment image

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 1:29 pm
Reply to  Klam

But I was told you could play basketball outside in Sacramento in the winter time!

Kosta
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June 30, 2020 1:31 pm
Reply to  Klam

Don’t let Vlade go picking out a Christmas tree all by himself!comment image

Klam
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June 30, 2020 2:07 pm
Reply to  Kosta

Vlade surrounded by the other NBA GMs:
 comment image

RobHessing
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June 30, 2020 3:00 pm
Reply to  Klam

comment image
“There’s poop in my bag, Lee.”

LandParkJimmer
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June 30, 2020 1:55 pm

I feel like Holmes is far beyond what we could’ve hoped for from Bagley. He’s just better in every way, maybe a little less agile but hard to know since we never see Bagley. IMO, focus on resigning Holmes and trade Bagley for literally anything.

BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 2:30 pm

Fun fact:
Today, Deron Williams received his last paycheck from the Nets. He last played for them on May 1st, 2015. That’s 5 years and 2 months of dead money. In case you’re wondering. The Nets paid him $5,474,787 for the 2019-20 season.

G-naps
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June 30, 2020 3:19 pm

That reminds me of the Ralph Sampson contract. His last year in the league was 1992.
 
From espn: https://www.espn.com/nba/news/story?id=2059499
 

Court documents in the 2003 case showed Sampson was paid $539,060 in 1999 and $134,765 in 2000 by the Sacramento Kings.

1951
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June 30, 2020 3:24 pm

Fun fact: The Kings are still paying Matt Barnes $2m for this season!

1951
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June 30, 2020 3:31 pm
Reply to  1951

Looking that up led to this fun fact realization:
 
Kent Bazemore and Corey Joseph are two of the Kings highest three paid players this year! H. Barnes rounds out the top three at No. 1!
 
My spaghetti monster. I mean, how many wins would you predict for a team that I told you had Barnes, Bazemore and Joseph as the top three highest paid players! Yikes! 😉
 
 

Last edited 3 years ago by 1951
ScottyPop
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June 30, 2020 3:29 pm

Not exactly basketball related, but this one takes the cake.
 

Steve Young Will Make $1 Million in 2014 from USFL Deal Signed in 1984

CoreyBrewersD
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June 30, 2020 4:17 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

HAHAHAHAHAHA, That is hilarious, good for Steve!

Gabriel_Bonito
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June 30, 2020 3:59 pm

Ayton/Bagley are both a glimpse into the inner workings of bad franchises. Each team is looking to the past to find their next franchise pillar. Very tall very athletic bigs who can work inside out and steal possessions with solid board skills.
Dearest Suns/Kings, zone defense is legal and any paintbound big who can’t pass/shoot threes is a sixth man. Your franchises spent precious top two picks in sixth men and the whole of the league knows. Your backward facing ideals will keep you out of any relevance for the foreseeable future.
 

Last edited 3 years ago by Gabriel_Bonito
BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 4:09 pm
Reply to  Gabriel_Bonito

Not that I think he was a good pick, but Ayton is in a different class than Bagley. He took a significant step forward as a defender this year. Even as a bit of an anachronism, Ayton is still much impactful more impactful than Bags.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 4:46 pm

Yeah I didn’t like the Ayton pick either but at least Ayton is probably going to be really good. I just don’t think a big center that needs touches is helping you all that much in today’s game. But at least he was making a positive impact on the court by the end of the season. Bagley has been a pretty large net negative every second he’s on the court.

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June 30, 2020 4:12 pm

In terms of star potential, I’d rate Bagley 7th in his draft class (behind Luka, Young, SGA, JJJ, Ayton & M. Robinson). I don’t think he’s likely to become a star, but his ceiling is higher than some of the players on those lists (though he’ll probably be worse than some of the players w/lower ceilings).
 

Last edited 3 years ago by richie88
BestHyperboleEver
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June 30, 2020 4:35 pm
Reply to  richie88

I don’t see why his ceiling would be higher than Porter’s. Porter is basically the same size, but with developed perimeter skills and a plus 3pt shot. I can see doubting his health, but if we’re just talking ceilings I don’t see an argument for Bagley over him.

richie88
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June 30, 2020 5:05 pm

I forgot that Porter was in the same draft as Bagley. That drops Bagley down to 8th.

ForKingsandCountry
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June 30, 2020 4:47 pm
Reply to  richie88

To be perfectly honest I don’t believe Bagley has any star potential. He certainly hasn’t shown any of that potential through two years as a King. As with everything Kings related, I would love to be proven wrong.

richie88
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June 30, 2020 5:12 pm

I thought he had star potential after his rookie season (though his ceiling wasn’t nearly as high as Luka’s ceiling). His injuries & poor play this season make me feel it’s much less likely that he’ll be a star, but I think there’s still a small chance that he’ll be a star (from an offensive standpoint).

Roaddog
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June 30, 2020 5:00 pm

Marvin currently has lower star potential than his yet to be drafted younger brothers

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June 30, 2020 5:29 pm
Reply to  Roaddog

Amen
 

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June 30, 2020 7:08 pm

My thing is I just want Bagley to be the type of player who can be effective in frontcourt pairings with big wings, stretch 4s or traditional centers. If he can only be effective playing alongside a unicorn who can protect the rim stretch the floor and distribute, then we’re pretty much screwed.
 
The good news is he’s talented enough to not be the type of player that needs to be catered to. If he focused on corner threes, side pick and pops/rolls, passing out of the double team, and PnR defense, then he’d be fine.
 
Side note, one article that I would like to see is examining Bagley’s possessions in greater. I think if people actually looked they’d be alarmed by his teammates’ body language. Often times, they are pointing to the obviously open teammate or standing there with yards of space between themselves and their nearest defender with their hands up. You see what they are trying to do, and then you see what actually happens, and those two things are almost always never the same.

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June 30, 2020 7:21 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

My thing is I just want Bagley to be the type of player 



Fixed that for you

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June 30, 2020 7:26 pm
Reply to  G-naps

Well yes and no. Fully healthy Bagley isn’t that impactful unless he changes his mindset and develops more useful skills.

G-naps
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June 30, 2020 7:57 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I agree. Id be happy with consistent, injury free floor time for Bagley. And then look for the “next step” in his development as a player.

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July 1, 2020 3:51 am
Reply to  RORDOG

 examining Bagley’s possessions in greater. I think if people actually looked they’d be alarmed by his teammates’ body language. Often times, they are pointing to the obviously open teammate or standing there with yards of space between themselves and their nearest defender with their hands up. You see what they are trying to do, and then you see what actually happens, and those two things are almost always never the same.

Well, I am sure that Luke had some time to examine the tape.
Who knows, he may have even have tried to show it to Marvin.
 
But that raises another question; does Marvin listens as closely to the Kings coaching staff as to his dad? I have nothing to back this up, but I fear that daddy Bagley could be quite a disruptive force in his development. That issue he had with Fox on social media was never clear to me, but that man strikes me as difficult.

Lucky_Guy
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July 1, 2020 5:38 am

This is a great time to buy low on Bagley stock. When all things are said and done I still believe that he will be a really good player but he will probably never be the correct pick at #2.

G-naps
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July 1, 2020 6:03 am
Reply to  Lucky_Guy

What benefits come from buying in on Bagley now? I think all fans that have been skeptical of Bagley would be more than happy to eat crow or a shoe if he turns the corner and becomes a well rounded contributor on the Kings.

Lucky_Guy
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July 1, 2020 6:18 am
Reply to  G-naps

I think that would he making an emotional decision. If the Kings can find a good return for him then I would be fine with trading him. If his value is the 10th best player in that draft class then the Kings are much better off keeping him and hoping his value comes back up a little before trading him.

RikSmits
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July 1, 2020 6:26 am
Reply to  Lucky_Guy

I probably would not trade him for #10 in this draft, unless Avdija would still be available.
In next year’s draft, though?

BestHyperboleEver
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July 1, 2020 10:21 am
Reply to  RikSmits

Yeah, I’d probably trade him for anything in the top half of the 2021-23 drafts. Especially when you consider the value of simply resetting the rookie contract. Bagley is already two-years in. After this season, assuming the Kings keep him for their team control years, the Kings basically have him on a 2year/$20MM deal. Then, his QO will be nearly $15MM with a nearly $30MM cap hold.

King4life
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July 1, 2020 8:26 am

You’ll never be able to convince me that Vlade doesn’t deserve to have his jersey unretired for this franchise altering decision. Passing on Luka changed the direction of this team completely and altered what the next decade would’ve looked like.
 
I still can’t believe the Kings passed on an obvious can’t miss star for a one handed brittle PF.

RikSmits
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July 1, 2020 8:34 am
Reply to  King4life

But that second jump?

G-naps
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July 1, 2020 12:48 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

On full display in his natural habitat.
 comment image

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