Exploring the idea of Richaun Holmes to Toronto

Sacramento has been classified as potential sellers over the last few weeks, and conflicting reports are flying left and right as the March 25th deadline approaches.

Recently, the Toronto Raptors were listed as one of the teams interested in Richaun Holmes by Shams Charania.

To gain some perspective on Toronto’s current situation and reported interest, I am joined by Louis Zatzman who covers the Raptors for Raptors Republic and FiveThirtyEight. We go back and forth in an attempt to find common ground and even a potential deal that would benefit both sides. 

Brenden: It seems weird to me that the Toronto Raptors are finding themselves listed as both buyers and sellers. Can you explain the Richaun Holmes interest to me from Toronto’s perspective, and is it contingent on Kyle Lowry remaining on the roster? 

Louis: If that seems weird to you, it’s because it is! The Raptors don’t really know who they are right now on the court, and that’s reflected in the noise off the court. They’re in 11th in the East right now and on an eight-game losing streak, but they’re only 5.0 games out of fourth place. (Jealous of the Eastern Conference right now?) After a slow start to the season, Toronto was in fourth in the East and one of the hottest teams in the league before being decimated by COVID. Then the losing streak, which continues now that their stars are back. 

So which team are they? An unlucky but solid team — that desperately needs a starting center — that will buy at the deadline? If so, adding Holmes, to me, makes the Raptors a clear fourth in the East. But if it costs Toronto too much, it might be too late for such additions to have much value, at least for this season. The complicating factor is that Lowry and scorer Norman Powell (who has a player option he will surely decline) are expiring after this season, and Toronto has lost three core championship pieces for nothing in free agency in the past two years. Losing two more would be painful. It’s possible the Raptors toe the line and sell Powell for assets while acquiring Holmes for the future — there will be no one better on whom they can spend their money in free agency this season. But as you say, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to trade the franchise leader in Lowry while acquiring a winning asset in Holmes.

So they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place due to their mounting losses. Holmes represents a possible way out, but one that might not make much sense anymore. Does that sound like a team that will offer a good package for Holmes?

Brenden: Not quite, but we may have varying views of what a good deal exactly is. I think moving Holmes is very dependent on what his market is in free agency. If Sacramento does not move on from one of Buddy Hield or Harrison Barnes, then they may find themselves in a situation where they will lose Holmes for nothing unless he is willing to accept about $10-million annually to stay with the Kings.

My guess is that the only reason Monte McNair would be considering moving on from Richaun Holmes is that he is having trouble acquiring what he views as a reasonable value for Buddy or Barnes and/or he realizes that Richaun Holmes is going to get the bag this offseason.

Say the matching salary was Aron Baynes. What sort of protections would need to be on a first-rounder this season where you would feel comfortable including that in a deal for Holmes? Top-10?

Louis: You just dive right into it, don’t you!? Buy me dinner first, etcetera. I delay because this is where it gets sticky. I don’t think Toronto is willing to trade a first-rounder this season, given the pain the team is incurring to move up in the draft. So a top-10 protected seems unlikely. Toronto might go for top-20, but even that seems risky. Toronto isn’t going to beat Philadelphia or Brooklyn this season, even if they add Holmes for nothing. They are so deep in the hole at the moment that they could even face one of those teams in the first round. Not a huge return from Toronto’s perspective, although getting an inside look at a guy before free agency is always of value. Still. In OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, Toronto has a history of hitting in the middle or even late in the first round. Would Baynes and top-20 protected get it done? Seems like a poor return from Sacramento’s point of view. 

On the other hand, Holmes is a great player, but he’s expiring, and the Kings seem unlikely or at least unwilling to pay him. Powell is a great player for Toronto, but he’s expiring, and the Raptors seem unlikely or at least unwilling to pay him. Swapsies? 

Surely not, right? The Kings already have too many shooting guards. Like I said: sticky.

Brenden: I don’t see it. Sacramento would find themselves just trying to flip Powell then, who is a player that fits significantly worse than Holmes. A single top-20 protected pick probably gets McNair to hang up the phone fairly quickly, although I think a top-10 protected pick would be appealing.

I will say, I don’t know that I would call Sacramento unlikely to retain Holmes. I get the impression he is a priority to the front office (this is one of the first times he has been mentioned in trade talk) and is very clearly a fan favorite. 

In my mind, the appeal of trading for Holmes, and the reason that both the mentioned teams (the other being Charlotte) have cap space this offseason is to show Holmes that you want him and, as you said, get a quick peek into how he would look before committing long-term money.

Now, where things get interesting to me is a three-team deal that would revolve around Kyle Lowry leaving and Richaun Holmes being the primary asset returning to Toronto. 

• Sacramento receives: Mattisse Thybulle, Mike Scott
• Toronto receives: Richaun Holmes, Danny Green, Terrance Ferguson, PHI 2021 1st
• Philadelphia receives: Kyle Lowry, Justin James

Thybulle is a player who better fits Sacramento’s roster construction and the timeline of De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. How would you feel about Richaun Holmes being the chief asset returning for Kyle Lowry?

Louis: This is very interesting. A three-team trade had to be our endpoint. In the beginning of the season when the Raptors could hold out hope of winning this year, Sacramento and Toronto were natural trading partners. Now, not so much.

I’m of the mind that Lowry has final say over Toronto’s handling of his contract. (DeMar DeRozan was equally beloved, but he didn’t win a championship with this team, and Lowry ain’t bringing back Kawhi Leonard. Anyway.) If Lowry wants to be traded, or is at least open to it, then it seems like he’s really only going to Philadelphia or Miami. The chief assets they could offer are Tyrese Maxey or Duncan Robinson, respectively. Let’s think about how Holmes compares to them from the perspective of the Raptors.

Maxey is an interesting player, but he’s an undersized and inefficient guard — though of course a rookie, so the inefficiency doesn’t matter so much — with a knack for self-creation. People I greatly respect love his future, but I’m not as convinced that he’ll be a starting-caliber player. Robinson is in the same boat as Holmes and Powell: you trade for him, you better pay him. Neither Maxey nor Robinson fills a position of need for Toronto, and neither is as good a player as Holmes. This is probably as good as Toronto can get for Lowry.

So I think we’ve found some common ground. There are a few ifs, given Lowry’s amenability to the deal, but I don’t hate this for Toronto. A core of VanVleet, Anunoby, Siakam, and Holmes sounds pretty incredible to me, especially given the Raptors keeping its (likely) solid first-rounder this upcoming year. 

In your mind, is adding Matisse Thybulle better than retaining Holmes? Is that a move that really pushes Sacramento out of its wheel of €¦ whatever the last decade has been? 

Brenden: Again, I think Mattise Thybulle fits the timeline of Fox and Haliburton better than Richaun Holmes. And, as I said earlier, this would likely need to come down to the Kings realizing that they are unlikely to retain Holmes this coming offseason because he is either out of their price range or they fail to trade one of Buddy or Barnes.

Lots of ifs, but if that is the scenario that Monte McNair finds himself in, I think that Mattise Thybulle (or Tyrese Maxey) is a fine return for Richaun Holmes. Maybe, if we were talking Miami as another potential suitor, then Precious Achuiwa could be more intriguing to Sacramento if he were on the table.

• Sacramento receives: Precious Achiuwa
• Toronto receives: Richaun Holmes, Goran Dragic, Maurice Harkless, MIA 2025 1st (lottery protected)
• Miami receives: Kyle Lowry

The other added benefit from Sacramento’s perspective is that losing Richaun Holmes makes the team substantially worse this season. Getting worse being ideal sounds counterintuitive, but the Kings need one more All-Star caliber player if the goal is to eventually be a team that can make a significant run in the playoffs. The most simple way to acquire that caliber of talent in the near future is a top-five pick in this upcoming draft and the minutes Holmes was receiving then getting pushed to Hassan Whiteside, Chimezie Metu, and/or whatever other filler they find will surely cause them to lose more games.

Maybe some small additional draft compensation, second-rounders, would need to come back to Sacramento.

Yet, if there is a real struggle to find a reasonable return for Harrison Barnes or Buddy Hield, I think that adding Mattise Thybulle or Tyrese Maxey (or Precious Achiuwa?) for the expiring Richaun Holmes would be good business.