Over the last several months, the Sacramento Kings have slowly but surely changed their tune regarding De’Aaron Fox’s status as the future of their franchise. In the offseason, every leak surrounding Philadelphia 76ers forward Ben Simmons was prefaced with the clear statement that De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton were off of the table. At the start of the year, those same qualifications were shared; however, a few weeks ago, likely due to the team’s miserable performance to date, that tune changed. It was reported that the Kings may be willing to include Fox in the absolutely right deal, and that deal seems to have been found by Monte McNair and Sacramento’s management team.
After Sam Amick strongly linked the Kings to both Domantas Sabonis of the Indiana Pacers and Ben Simmons of the Philadelphia 76ers yesterday, Jason Anderson of the Sacramento Bee shared even more details regarding Sacramento’s plans on Wednesday morning:
“A league source told The Sacramento Bee the Kings have stepped up their pursuit of Indiana Pacers big man Domantas Sabonis and they are including Fox in those discussions. Fox was so far off the table he wasn’t discussed when the Kings approached the Philadelphia 76ers about Ben Simmons last summer, sources with knowledge of the talks told The Bee, but now Fox is reportedly part of those conversations as well.”
Sacramento’s willingness to include Fox in these discussions shouldn’t come as a total surprise, as the chances of the front office trading for an All-Star like Sabonis or Simmons without including a high-caliber player such as Fox were always extremely slim. With neither the Sixers nor the Pacers looking to bottom out and reset, packages around role players, a 23-year old rookie, and first round picks were probably never going to get it done, although some of those assets may need to be included with Fox, depending on the deal.
“The Pacers are seeking an All-Star caliber player in return for Sabonis and have received offers matching their criteria, a source told The Bee. Fox has yet to achieve All-Star status, but a deal involving Fox and one or more draft picks could get Indiana’s attention.”
The potential inclusion of draft picks, likely first rounders, is a fascinating twist for the Sacramento Kings, but an understandable one from Indiana’s viewpoint. If they’re receiving All-Star caliber players in trade offers, a straight swap of De’Aaron Fox for Sabonis and salary doesn’t necessarily meet the bar for the Pacers. On the other hand, most around the league would probably rate Fox and Sabonis as around the same level of player – offense-only iso-players who are on the verge of their prime.
If the Pacers are bluffing, Fox could be the best player available for their quick reset, and with the Kings also talking a Fox-Simmons swap, it may behoove one of these teams to agree to a deal sooner rather than later or lose out on the prize of Fox, if he is in fact considered a prize. Conversely, the Kings may throw in a (hopefully protected) first rounder or two in order to lock down a deal in fear of missing out on one of the only two All-Stars available at this moment.
The complexity of these situations is only further muddied by the desperation of Sacramento’s front office. Everyone knows that they have to make a trade. Everyone knows they’re floundering and are currently 10 games under a .500 record. Everyone knows about the playoff mandate. Everyone knows they have exactly one moveable, valuable win-now asset in De’Aaron Fox. And while it’s understandable that ownership and management “desperately want to end the NBA’s longest playoff drought after 15 consecutive losing seasons – or at least reach the play-in tournament“, that desperation cannot lead to risk-filled trades that sacrifice the future on the altar of the immediate, a path the Kings have pursued plenty of times over the last 15 years, a path that has only lengthened the playoff drought rather than shortening it.
No matter the individual opinion on individual trade ideas or rumors, the Kings have made their goals clear: improve the team and improve it now. There will be no tanking or resetting. And even if the current roster is nowhere close to cutting it, Monte McNair and the front office are trying the one thing that’s never been attempted over the last decade-and-a-half: trading for All-Stars. The next few weeks will prove whether or not that plan is a viable option for this franchise.
I like Sabonis, but there’s no way the Kings should add a first rounder in that deal.
I think Sabonis would be great in two-man game, but not sure of his fit with Richaun, who I think gets dealed if they make trade.
I don’t have a problem trading Fox, but there’s no doubt he’s an amazing offensive force and it scares me to think about him taking the next step somewhere else, which, of course, he will
Kings would have to add a 1st rounder to get Sabonis. He’s the better player, an all-star, on a ridiculously good contract and there really shouldn’t be an argument about it.
I think we really need to temper our evaluations of Fox. The guy is not an all-star, can’t shoot from deep, doesn’t defend at a high rate, and really doesn’t make those around him better. He’s 5 years in so I’m not sure he has that much more of a “next step.” He’s a poor man’s John Wall. Any trade for Sabonis or Simmons will have to include a unprotected/lightly protected pick, if not two.
When it comes to Sabonis and Holmes together, yeah, I don’t think it would work. If you are getting Sabonis, moving Holmes is the right move. Hornets seem like a great fit, and PJ Washington could be nice next to Sabonis.
I would probably throw in this year’s draft pick top 3 protected.
I agree with you we may need to add extra compensation. Our 24 year old PG doesn’t really have a strong case for having way more upside than either 25 year old all star (we aren’t trading a 21 year old for a 29 year old).
That said, I would at least try to negotiate for strong protections. The 76ers are playing well without Simmons and he’s ready to sit out the year and the Pacers haven’t won more than 48 games with Sabonis in the East. Unless another team is dead-set on giving up the farm for either of these guys, Fox is probably about the best offer they will get.
If either team thinks their player is extremely special and can drive double digit extra wins for us compared to Fox, then great, say lottery protection shouldn’t be an issue if they are right. But if not, then we retain some downside protection ourselves and can give them a 2nd rounder.
Edit: Wort noting that with Simmons in particular, the sweetener might be taking on Harris’ contract instead of further draft compensation. This could actually be preferable for both teams.
This is what I was thinking when I heard they wanted to package Harris with Simmons. If the Kings are taking Harris’ contract, then don’t give up a draft pick. I’d go for that.
I’d add that Harris was a much better player when Simmons was on the court. I’d do Fox/Barnes/Hield for Simmons/Harris. I might even throw in a pick with some protections. But Morey would have to come way off his demands to do that deal.
The added plus for the Sixers is we help them clear cap space to help Morey sign Harden (or another superstar).
I’ve been checking out the Sixers fan site and they seem to agree that is Morey’s masterplan. They even think that’s why he’s not worried if a Simmons trade doesn’t happen. He’d just use Simmons in a trade for a superstar in the offseason.
How do Sixers fans feel abt the prospect of Harden on the team?
From what I’ve read they are resigned to take whatever Morey gives them.
I guess his original plan was to get Harden when he left Houston but failed. So he’s waiting out Harden’s NJ contract.
Most fans seem to want Simmons to go but last I looked, from the Kings they want Fox, Halliburton, Barnes and two draft picks, oh, and they seem to think they might get all that because of Vivek.
Great point on them being together on the court.
I’ll just add, even before the 76ers, Harris put up a BPM between 1.6 and 3.1 on the Clippers and Pistons. So he’s not just a product of playing for one perfect team where he fit perfectly or his advances stats got a “halo boost” from playing with two All Star caliber players.
Just for reference: Harrison Barnes’ career high BPM is 0.9 this season. And Buddy Hield had that one magnificent season with Joerger where he was a 2.1 BPM, but hasn’t cracked a 1.0 for two seasons.
No doubt Harris is overpaid, but he’s only 29. His contract runs until he is 31. And he’s probably a much more impactful basketball player than not only Barnes and Hield, but anyone we would sign as a FA in the near-future.
Simmons and Harris? Sign me up. Yes, Harris’ contract is obscene, but he would instantly become the Kings’ second-best player. Simmons would be in first place. Combine with an ascendant Haliburton and a steady Holmes, and you have yourself a very nice starting lineup. If the goal is to win, and win now, it’s a move worth making.
Unless Haliburton goes and this guy put this out there….https://twitter.com/nihilist_bucks/status/1483844787199426562?t=0b1zW_MvU2-9wTCKRnB31A&s=19
Thats about 10 Million short for us being able to take the trade. Maybe Bagley , Homes or Thompson
Hield needs to be part of the deal if the Kings take on Simmons and Harris’ big contracts. I like Harris. How about this lineup: Haliburton, Davis, Simmons, Harris, Holmes/Jones with Mitchell and Metu first off the bench.
This should be the main goal. Barnes, buddy, Bagley and Thompson plus two 2nd round picks for Simmons, Harris, Bassey and Isaiah Joe.
do it!
that’s actually a solid “reset” for the Kings while also making the team significantly better right now. At least on paper. It saves the sixers a ton of money and allows them to go after a big big fish this offseason that can take them over the top and and into championship possibilities. For the kings, it’s a test that comes with a 3 year commitment/window to get to the playoffs.
THIS NEEDS TO HAPPEN. if it all fails and we don’t get better so be it.
Fox, Haliburton, Harris, Simons and Holmes is a serious starting 5. For the first time in a very very very very long tine.
Can we please rid ourselves of Holmes?
Wassup Holmes?!?
Meant as a reply to GCF:
I sure as hell hope not, he is on one of the most productive deals in the league and he’s a damn fine player when healthy.
Not surprisingly, I’m not a fan of this deal either. Fox for Sabonis I get even though that doesn’t work salary wise so other pieces would have to be included.
But it’s a hells to the fuck no on adding draft picks on top of that.
I really don’t think we should have to add much and it’s probably posturing and negotiation right up until the deadline (really don’t know that the Pacers will get a better offer than Fox).
I could see adding a draft pick to the deal, but it would need to be decently protected. If the Pacers or 76ers think they are giving us a far superior player who will really improve our team, then shared risk is a legitimate request.
Fine, we’ll give you an extra draft pick. A lottery protected first rounder that becomes a second round pick if we don’t make the playoffs. If the trade really does change our fortune and you were telling the truth about what a stud Simmons / Sabonis are, then by all means, an extra draft pick is fair.
If they don’t lead to a real change in performance and the players are much closer to being equals, but our franchise is so dysfunctional, we ruin every player who comes here a little, then no extra draft compensation should be required.
I think that the salary issue is easily resolved by throwing in TJ Warren’s dead, expiring deal.
You could also toss in Holmes and take Justin Holiday back as well, if you were looking for potential options for avoiding including a near-term, lightly protected pick.
TJ Warren all day!
I’ve been a fan of Warren for awhile. If he’s fully recovered from his injury, you could do a hell of a lot worse for a throw-in.
I don’t think he comes back this season, and if he does, it would be too late and he’d needs time to return to form. The latest info from Indy says he’s still weeks away from returning.
That’s entirely possible, although there wouldn’t be any need to rush him back. Neither team’s season hangs on whether Warren plays this year.
Then being a UFA, the Kings would only be acquiring him as an expiring contract. Therefore, trading for the player in Warren is irrelevant.
Because he couldn’t be re-signed, assuming that he’s made a good recovery? If he doesn’t play this season, it would keep the market for him cool, and then you have the option to retain him for a very reasonable price.
Warren and Sabonis for Fox works, but I would assume comes with a pick. That makes me squeamish but under the Kings postseason MO you at least get another solid rotational player in a playoff push.
That said maybe Indiana thinks they could fetch a decent expiring return with Warren solely. And the protection on the pick would be a bit of a sticking point I assume.
A pick with Indiana is likely needed to justify a 2nd player from their side, if not in just their own evaluation of Sabonis. That makes me nervous.
I don’t think that Sabonis is so much better than Fox that a pick, much less multiple picks would be required. Sabonis is a terrific player, but he doesn’t play any defense, and he doesn’t solve Sacramento’s biggest problems.
Depending on who goes out, I’m doubtful that adding Sabonis or Simmons gets the Kings anything more than a spot in the play-in tournament, and I’m not terribly certain about that, either.
Straight up for Fox? That seems fair to me. Maybe a highly-protected pick for Sabonis, but Fox ain’t chopped liver, despite the bleatings of a loud minority. The trade has the potential to improve both teams, and the Kings shouldn’t need to supply additional grease just to make Indiana more comfortable.
I think it would take a pick to get Sabonis. It all comes down to what else Monte is thinking. If Sabonis is the first move to make a run this year and you feel confident you can make the play-in or more, then add in a lottery protected, or at worst top 10 protected, pick.
If, however, Sabonis is the first move to call it a season and you intend to retool for next year and beyond, make it a top 3 protected pick this year, then a lottery protected after that then a free and clear in 2024. You do that with the confidence that you are deep into the playoffs 2 years from now and that pick conveyance is in the 20s.
I think the pick parameters all come down to what moves Monte has in store after getting Sabonis.
James Ham has been talking recently of the challenges that protected picks provide, mainly that teams can’t trade other picks until those protections on the original pick expire. For instance, if a pick has top 3 protections from 22-25, then the Kings can’t trade any of their first picks until the 2026 pick.
Stepien rule says hello!
Yeah, we all remember those dark days of Vlade’s pick protections and swaps with Philly. That’s why it may be easier to just give a free a clear pick if you don’t think you are going to be in the lottery. Just cut bait and free up the future.
No one expects…to be in the lottery!
I know the FO wants the postseason but…does anybody here really want a trade for an awkward fitting star just for the sake of trading for one? Sabonis is great but simply can’t play defense (sounds like a King already!), and won’t be great next to Holmes. Simmons has concerns regarding on-court fit and off-court commitment. The way I see it, this trade is being sold to us with the purpose of…. getting the privilege to lose a play-in series? Getting bounced round 1 of the playoffs? And then what?
I’ve been waiting for McNair to give me a vision of the future, but this just seems like a trade in and of itself with no clear idea of how we build off a play-in appearance for next season. If that’s the case, I’d really rather just tank. But then again, that’s been my position for like 3 years now. Just give me a coherent plan, rather than a frantically put together move just because the GM’s seat is getting warm.
Countdown to complaining about Sabonis’ “empty stats” once he gets here.
Then you can summarily discard those peoples’ opinions on the subject of empty stats. Empty stats are absolutely a thing. But the term is thrown around WAY too much. It isn’t empty stats when a guy is putting up a .640 TS% on good volume and is basically the only reason the Pacers have a league average offense.
It’s worth pointing out that the Pacers have played a lot better than their record. Based on their peripheral stats, their record should be about 6 wins better than it is.
We clearly need a different mix with this team, and if Sabonis is involved, I’m all for it. Barring injury, the team can’t be worse.
Carl, I think that we’re both well aware that the Kings can always be worse.
IMO, there isn’t much “worse” than this. Personally, I don’t see a meaningful difference between missing the playoffs with 35 wins and missing the playoffs with 15 wins. I mean, aside from the latter putting you in a better position to improve.
15 wins at least serves a purpose. Sometimes, less is more.
We need a different mix, the roster was fucked from the beginning of the year but I disagree completely about Sabonis. He is a one-way player, who slows the game down.
IMO, we should keep Fox & Hali together and work on actually fielding a well-rounded roster that fits a specific scheme. Maybe let the GM hire a coach first and then let them decide which direction we should go.
So, the GM hires a coach this offseason, then a season to “see what we have” and “install the system,” then a couple years to adjust the roster to fit that system, then a couple more years to let the roster gel, then…
Also, Sabonis is less of a one-way player than Fox is. And what’s wrong with slowing the game down? The point isn’t to play as fast as possible. It’s to play at the right pace to suit your personnel.
Yeah, I think that is right path. Let the GM hire his own coach and develop a scheme/system that they know they’ll be using and then go and find players that fit. I disagree that you would need waste another couple of years doing what McNair has already done. McNair knows what we have in terms of player’s skills/talents, the issue is that we don’t have a coach or an identity.
I just want our GM to pick his own coach for once before trading away our best player.
Me too. And trading a player like Fox may make more sense in the offseason anyway.
These rumors are tilting away from Sac because the perception that they are so desperate. And in fairness, that perception isn’t probably wrong.
I don’t think that the GM has to hire a coach before molding his roster. He can set his roster and then go find that best fits that talent.
It can work that way, but I think its harder to do and less likely to be successful. I think there are more good players available than good coaches.
Define “available.” That is, who are the good coaches that you think are available to coach this team, and which of these coaches become unavailable if you don’t include them in the roster building process?
I wonder how much say/pull Spoelstra has in Miami. I mean, I’m sure that Riley solicits his opinion, but at the end of the day Pat Riley does what Pat Riley wants to do, and Spoelstra is then charged with carrying Riley’s plan forward. Same with Kerr in Golden State, or Williams in Phoenix, or Snyder in Utah.
GMs GM. Coaches coach. Players play.
Available, as in playing in the NBA or eligible to play in the NBA. Every offseason, there are only 4-5 decent to good coaches that might be available, how many of them are likely to consider SAC, 2 maybe 3. How many of those 2-3 have a vision that lines up with McNair’s?
In 2020-2021, there were 530 players in the NBA, not even including other leagues or incoming rookies. Yes, I believe it is easier to find players for a certain role than to find a coach that fits (or who wants to work under Vivek).
Simply stated, the Kings would have the same level of interest from available coaches regardless of whether Fox, Simmons or Sabonis was the best player. The GM might have some preferred coaches based on the roster that the GM has put together.
GMs GM. Coaches coach. Players play.
Perhaps this is a better way to put it:
Geoff Petrie had a vision of the type of team that he wanted on the floor, and he went out and got it. After putting the team together, he dismissed Eddie Jordan as head coach and hired Rick Adelman as the coach that he felt could best bring Petrie’s vision to the floor.
Over the eight years that they worked together, I’m certain that Petrie solicited Adelman’s input. But when it came time to make the decisions to (say) trade Hedo and Pollard for Miller or Peja for Artest or C-Webb or any other trades /signings in between, Petrie did what Petrie wanted and then left it to Adelman to get the roster that Petrie put together to produce.
What did not happen was Petrie waiting to hire Adelman before moving forward on his vision.
Totally agree. I just don’t think McNair has a specific vision. If he hires a coach, they can develop the best system for this team in this city together. I want a plan man!
The core of this team clearly doesn’t function together and something needs to be done – totally agreed. But while a single haphazard trade in the middle of the season certainly qualifies as doing something, I’m not sure how much confidence it inspires in the direction of the franchise.
Seriously, doesn’t it feel like we’re trying to convince ourselves of Simmons or Sabonis just by the pure chance that these are the guys that happen to be available? We should think of what the team looks like in some type of dream version, and then seek out the archetypes that play in that dream version. 3&D wings, stretch 5s, pass-first guards – what are we looking for? Because ‘Sabonis = good which means trade = good’ doesn’t make the rest of the puzzle fall into place.
I would just say that this is probably going to be a mutistep process. Sabonis/Simmons/Harris should be seen as a (big) first step, and not the last. Some of that comes with the front office actually making a deal, and then not sitting on their ass for another 18 months before making another one.
I am in 100% agreement with you, at least with what I perceive your opinion to be.
The Kings are currently a bad team. I do not think any player in trade rumors this year will make them a good team if they trade Fox. The needle might move to become mediocre. They might get a firm grip on the 9th seed or even the 8th seed. Then, if they don’t kangz the playin, they will be swept or lose in 5 games to the Suns, Warriors, Grizzlies, or Jazz (whoever gets the #1 seed).
If they trade a protected 2022 1st, they will probably convey it if they make the playoffs. They will have little projected practical cap space, if any. I do not think this is building the right way.
That said, a splashy trade to add a star for 1st rounders or trade a good player for a star will probably happen due to Monte being on the hot seat and pressure from Vivek. And the sadness continues …
I really like Fox and am not in any rush to trade him. But it fees like we are at a point where the current core simply isn’t working.
We can talk about potential all day and there is a non-zero chance that a player on our roster excels even further when given a better coach and more logical supporting cast (e.g., Fox having his defensive deficiencies covered by Embiid and Thybulle is pretty ideal for him). But Fox is 24 and Simmons and Sabonis are both 25. So unless we start loading these trades with draft picks, I’m not sure we can even call these moves short-sighted or trying to win now versus setting ourselves up for the future.
I also have been struggling a bit with the fact that it seems like in the modern NBA, you can take any number of lead guards, let them run the offense and get decent production. Shoot, even Cory Joseph put up numbers when the Pistons ran everything through him. At some point, Sabonis and Simmons both seem like much more unique weapons.
Frankly, Simmons could probably step almost immediately into Fox’s role and usage, while also giving us an All NBA defensive player. And Sabonis would give us a near-perfect front-court complement to Haliburton, while at least statistically being a far better defensive player than people give him credit for (yes, defensive advanced stats are flawed – but he’s been between a 0.8-1.6 DRPM for four straights seasons).
I don’t want to make a move for the sake of making a move. But one of the fundamental tenants of consumer behavior is people tend to overvalue what they have and undervalue what others have. Anyone who has tried to make a fantasy basketball trade knows this well. At some point, I think its time to stop overvaluing our own players and make a move. I’ve come around on acquiring either of these players, so long as we don’t have to mortgage the future.
Nice analysis.
Yep. In Economics, it’s called the endowment effect: we over-value things that we own. Fox is a good player–great, even, in stretches. He is not an All-Star. He has a max contract. He is not making this team significantly better. Time to make a move.
Very well said.
I’ll add that Sacramento fans have been victims of the endowment effect for over a decade and counting. We fall head over heels for any player who could conceivably be described as “kinda good” or better, just because we’re so used to seeing players who “suck.” I remember when very intelligent (not sarcasm) fans here argued strongly against the idea of trading Willie Cauley-Stein for a mid- to late-first. It’s not their fault. It’s what happens when you witness nothing but violent car wrecks for 15 years straight– at that point, anybody who can park inside the lines is the next NASCAR champ.
Makes more sense to trade Fox for Simmons instead of Haliburton for Simmons. Haliburton for Simmons is basically either moving Fox to SG or behind Simmons with Buddy at SG. Trade Haliburton + Buddy for Simmons and the team is basically screwed at SG. Fox has to be involved as the main piece in a Simmons trade.
Agree. While talent can still win and a good coach can get creative – it generally doesn’t seem like Fox and Simmons are a very good fit together. Neither is a great shooter and while Simmons is more versatile, their ideal role in an offense is very similar.
Meanwhile, Fox and Haliburton are pretty natural fits next to each other. Simmons basically takes over Fox’s role on offense. Hali plays his same role with maybe a bit more usage (or closer to how he’s played recently versus the full season). And Simmons becomes a defensive weapon guarding the other team’s best wing, while Hali is a good, long about average defender who complements him well and can handle any switches.
So you’re telling me the team that keeps saying pace, pace, pace wants to trade one of the fastest players in the league (regardless of how one rates his other skills and talents) for a slow, half-court talent?
Fine. Whatever. Just do it, just do something. Pick a freaking lane and drive it already. Trade Fox for Sabonis, sure, but they better also be thinking ahead to which coach and system would be a good fit (I’m not even going to say best because the Kings will never do anything the best way possible). It would be so like them to trade their fastest players for slower half-court guys and then go get D’Antoni or something.
I think the concern about playing fast was heavily dependent on management’s thought process about building around Fox. The idea was Fox played his best in transition and the team, for some reason, preaches play fast, then sets up into half court offenses. The team is built to optimize Fox’s play, but obviously that isn’t working. It’s also the entire reason why Bagley was drafted. Trade Fox and then the team plays any way it wants. So, my guess is Fox doesn’t really take the next step on another team, but that’s just my opinion. Fox has a very high usage on this team.
I get how the owner thinks playing is exciting and will look fun on the court when it works. But you know what is more than playing fast? Winning basketball games. That needs to be their goal. I don’t care if they are the slowest team in the league, just wins kme fucking games in a consistent level.
This also baffled me with the talk of getting Sabonis. When I communicated with the people on the Pacers fansite, they complained that Sabonis slowed the offense down and clogged the lane.
How does that fit on a team that wants a fast pace?
I noted this above, but I think that if you are trading Fox you are fundamentally changing your approach as it pertains to pace.
It is also possible to be more surgical in your approach to play with pace. The Kings got up and down the floor in spite of having Vlade Divac and Brad Miller as their centers (and both were featured offensively). The Spurs got up and down the floor in spite of Duncan not being a track star. Both of those teams picked their spots to run, taking advantage of numbers when they had them. But the key to both teams were that they could pull the ball back and execute in the halfcourt as needed.
Haliburton excites me more as a halfcourt player than one in transition although deserving intrigue in both. His movement offball, passing in-between actions and weakside reads are all things that I think a Sabonis addition would support. A shift that likely benefits Barnes too and possibly even Hield.
Indeed.
I’m building up my optimism.
YOU POOR FOOL
guilty
Not correct. Ask yourself these two questions. Was Magic Johnson exceptionally fast? Did his teams play with Pace?
The Kings can play plenty fast swapping Fox for Simmons.
The conversation revolved around Sabonis, not Simmons. And if you read the comment in its entirety, you will note that I am saying that you do not need to abandon pace – you would just be more selective if you had players that thrived in the half court.
Which flies right into the face of analytics evidencing success. A team is far more likely to win by taking highly-efficient shots (3s and shots in the paint) and the more you you take, the better. We have the (or at least one of the) premier in-the-paint scorers in the league and there are many here who now want to trade him for an under-sized old-school C which would mean the Kings are now a slow-it-down half court offense.
If it worked in today’s NBA and Sabonis is so great, then why is Indy open to trading him in the first place?
Why was Houston open to trading Harden? Why has Irving been traded? Paul? And so on and so on? I mean, if the cost to obtain him is a top 50 player and a pick, does that not speak to his value?
I fail to see how the presence of Domantas Sabonis deprives a team from shooting efficiently – his presence down low should make shots behind the arc more open and “efficient.” His passing ability should enable teammates to get off efficient shots.
And if you are talking about Holmes, he is efficient, but he is low volume and oft-injured. Total up the shots that he has taken vs. the offense as a whole, and you will see that he is not the solution to a team’s offensive efficiency, as his volume is just too low.
If the price is too high for Sabonis, fair enough. But I find the thought of him being obsolete or a drag on a team as highly laughable, especially at his contract.
Yes, I do think his game is becoming somewhat obsolete. Not that he can’t be successful doing it, but it makes it harder to build around.
My main problem with the proposed trade is the price, either Fox or Hali included is too much IMO…and on top of that, personally, I would rather watch a built around getting into the paint and shooting layups/floaters or dishing out to open 3s than running your offense through a low-post presence/passing big who is last down the court, we essentially tried that already with DMC who at the time, was a hell of a lot better than Sabonis is right now. I like Sabonis as a player, don’t want him on my team though.
This is a pretty clear mis-interpretation of “analytics.” “Analytics” says for most teams what you’re saying is true. But when we start talking about specific players, we no longer have to talk in generalities. Sabonis has a TS% of .645. Fox’s is .531. The simple translation of that is that when Sabonis shoots, he puts more points on the board than Fox.
“Analytics” says your team/players should take shots they can make the most efficiently. Exactly what shots those are vary by the team/player.
I made no misinterpretation at all, you may have misinterpreted what I meant.
I said:
You said:
You are incorrect. What you are describing above is the best way to use analytics to determine which shots each player should take (within a system, situation, and a whole range of factors), while I was referring to an entire team concept built around pace and efficient shots. The more efficient shots you take, the higher chance you’ll end up with more points than your opponent.
You also said:
The fact is the that the most efficient shots in basketball are assisted 3s and points in the paint, I want more of that. That is the team concept I want to see implemented.
If you slow down the game, you are also reducing your volume. As long as your shot selections are of the efficient variety, the higher the tempo/pace, the better.
Team concept should be based on core players’ skillsets. If you have a bunch of mid-range marksmen (say, the Spurs with Aldridge and DeRozen), you should shoot mid-range shots.
I agree, which is why I don’t want to trade our best player until we have decided on a system to run. As of right now, there is no identity to this team. If Fox doesn’t fit whatever scheme McNair and the new HC want to run, then trade him for someone who does. I just don’t see the logic in trading Fox until we know what kind of system will be implemented.
I think you’ve got to acquire talent and win trades, or at least improve your player mix, and then figure out how to use it in a system. If you’re bad, fit the system to the players, not the other way around.
It’s definitely a mix, you start with a vision and try to get as many players to fit as possible. Then at the start of the year, you make as few changes as possible to help the players that don’t quite fit by putting them into positions where they can still help the team win. At the end of the year, you continue to move away from players that don’t fit.
Eventually, as long as you stick to your plan and system, you’ll end up with a team full of players that can do what you require of them. At this point, you may need to find a star player if you don’t have one (and it may require further tweaks to your system to accommodate such a player), but at least you’ll have role players that fit your overall scheme.
But the scarcity in the market is in elite players. So deciding what system you will implement should be dictated by those players. Either the ones on your team, or the ones you can reasonable obtain at a price worth paying. You can choose a system all you like, but if you can’t field or acquire the elite talent, well-suited to that system, necessary to execute the system at a high level, then that system doesn’t mean anything.
I disagree, you can build a winning team without an elite player. You may not win it all, but you can compete and build an organizational foundation that is solid and attractive to great players and where you can help young players develop and reach their full potential; I want long term success, not a one year playoff experience.
What winning teams can you recall that didn’t have at least one, let’s say, top 20ish player?
The pre-KD 2018 Brooklyn Nets, they went 42-40 and finished 6th in the East.
Their 5 best players were DeAngelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Caris Levert, and Jarrett Allen. All really good at what they needed to do but none of them are stars and not even close to top 20.
Footspeed =/= pace. Even if we’re just talking about transition offense along, having elite defensive rebounders that can grab and go or are good outlets passers (like Simmons and Sabonis) can be more impactful in team transition offense than having a couple fast runners.
You are soooo right. I wouldn’t have made my post had I seen yours first.
If the bar is to make the playoffs, why do I get the horrible feeling that this all will end up in tears, and the Kings will be even worse shape
It’s best to not engage in discussions about trades that will never happen.
OT:
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1483834703429910530?s=20
cool story.
R.I.P. Lusia. May your memory be a blessing to your family & friends.
Looking at the principles, neither one of them hangs their hat on defense. But I think that Fox’s defensive deficiencies can be more crippling to a team overall. And I think that Sabonis has played on some very adequate defensive teams while in Indy, so he can probably at least play his role.
I don’t think that Sabonis is quite the flow stopper that some have asserted. He has handled more this year with Brogdon and McConnell being hurt. When I watch him on offense I am reminded of Vlade the player (Portland fans would probably point directly to Domantas’ old man).
I’m just looking for value for this roster, and Sabs seems to be the much better value/contract than Fox. The organization wants to compete right now. When it is all said and done, it is possible that the organization makes the right deal, even if it is for the wrong reason.
I think that the clock is running on Fox. I like Simmons, but you can’t ignore the volatility that goes along with the higher ceiling – that would certainly be the swing for the fences. But if you can add Sabs to Hali, get stretch 4/5 that can rim protect (I, like adamsite, am fixated on PJ Washington), and unlock Davi on offense (man, when was the last time a guy missed so many good shots? Randy Brown? Quincy Douby?), you might be onto the start of something.
I would still blow this thing up for all of the young players and picks that I could get my hands on, but if we are forced to follow the organization’s current model (and we are), Sabonis for Fox would sure be an interesting first step. I sure would love some pretty good protections on the pick that we would potentially have to include.
Thanks for this take. You are talking me off the ledge (or you could just push me off).
Your perspective paints a picture of a more free-flowing offense, more passing, and smart players. I’m hopeful.
I loved watching Domantas play and wished he could have made it to the NBA when he was younger. His passing was beautiful and deadly.
To add to your point, while defensive advanced stats have their flaws and limits, here’s Fox’a and Sabonis’ DBPMs the last few seasons:
Sabonis
2022: 0.8
2021: 1.6
2020: 1.2
2019: 1.3
Fox
2022: -1.1
2021: -1.3
2020: -0.5
2019: 0.2
Now, Sabonis has had Myles Turner behind him at times (he missed about half of last season, but Sabonis still put up a career high in DBPM). And Fox certainly isn’t responsible for all of the Kings defensive woes. Put Fox on Philly with Embiid and Thybulle next to him and he likely has a higher metric.
But this is still a pretty consistent pattern that suggests as you said with the eye test that Sabonis is not some defensive sieve. As someone who has watched him a lot myself (regular fantasy basketball team staple), he’s a smart defender who moves his feet and plays good team defense. He’s not winning DPOY, but he’s a physical, heady defender.
The value to contract is huge for me. He’s on a very very very good contact and is still locked up for an additional 2 years. His deal would give the Kings a lot flexibility to add an additional big contract, or two, in the coming season. He’s making just $18.5M next year, while Fox is getting over $30M. Sure, Fox is locked up longer, but Kings would own the rights to Sabonis.
I’m telling you, throw way too much money at Bridges and Claxton.
I believe I just saw somewhere yesterday that the Nets have made Claxton available in trade discussions. If the Kings want him, they should go and get him now to control his RFA rights.
This team is so strange…want to play ultra fast and stick with a coach who profess to play play but doesn’t (Walton). Then hire a GM who commits to play ultra fast but now wants to trade for a player who doesn’t fit that style?
My guess is that the GM’s commitment to play fast is based on having Fox as your centerpiece. Trade Fox and the commitment to play fast goes with him.
As it should. Pace/system should be dictated by personnel. Not the other way around.
What a dumb way to finish a sentence
I go back to the Jason Jones interview on ESPN 1320 a couple weeks back in regards to Fox, specifically the years of questions with multiple coaches in regards to Fox’s general effort. No former coaches could explain why he comes out so lethargic so often or why he only tries on defense in certain games. Also, the impact on the entire team when the star player has so little energy in so many games. It was interesting.
I don’t see Fox going to Indy without a pick included, because they would be taking on so much salary. I think Sabonis for Simmons makes a lot more sense for both sides, if the Sixers can offload Tobias Harris.
I think the deal that actually gets done is Hield and Bagley for Harris, while Simmons and Sabonis go elsewhere, and reasonably likely for each other.
That’s a sensible take. Harris is expensive, but he plays at a high level when he’s got a real point guard, and he’d have one here. If Philly wants to move that contract and gain flexibility, Hield & Bagley would do that.
Sixers might prefer Barnes to Bagley, but if so, they can pay for the privilege. Regardless, Bagley’s contract is up, so it’s off the books whether Marvin is moved or not.
My thinking is that if the Sixers want to pursue a high level free agent in the offseason, they need to shed salary, and Hield + Barnes doesn’t accomplish that. I also wouldn’t give them those two, given how bloated Harris’s salary is.
That’s true. I do think that Hield & Barnes give them the best opportunity to make a real push this year, and it’ll depend on whether or not Morey is content to waste another year of Embiid’s all-star-level prime.
Tough call for Morey, but I’m not sure he can make a wrong decision either way.
To me, The secenario that makes the most sense for the Sixers is Simmons for Sabonis and TJ Warren’s dead salary and Harris for Hield and Bagley. That makes them better this year, and frees up a bunch of salary to go after free agents in the offseason. I’m not sure if that’s enough for the Pacers, but the Sixers first round picks are likely a late in the first round, which they don’t really need anyway with the current team, so those would almost be throw ins. If I’m the Sixers, I’d rather have Sabonis than Fox. And if I’m the Pacers, I’d also take Simmons over Fox at this point.
That would definitely make the Sixers better, especially when you factor in that from an actual gameplay perspective, they aren’t losing anything if they trade Simmons. In Philly, Simmons is no longer a player, he’s only a contract.
I’d guess that Fox would help either team, but even though he’s a better player than Levert, Indiana has less need for a guard like Fox, than someone who can defend wings like Simmons.
To me that’s not enough back for the Kings as we are taking on an extra 28 Million dollars in Salary over 3 years for someone who the 76ers are just looking to offload with another contract(Not a star IMO) who is at best 11-15th best PF in the league.
Fox and a first for Sabonis? Hell no.
Myles Turner broke his foot. If the Pacers trade Sabonis, they’re basically conceding the season. Going from two skilled bigs to zero is a lot to overcome, no matter who you might get back for Sabonis.
Sabonis is like Westbrook, one of those players that I recognize is talented, but I don’t want them on MY team and I can’t stand the thought of watching them everyday. Sabonis can’t successfully share the floor with the epitome of a modern 5, he sure as hell can’t share the floor with an old-school 5…who in the world is successful pairing?
IMO, this team will be worse off if they make this trade. They are even worse defensively after this trade. We all want to see an influx in talent, but this is a step backward.
I’m not sure the Kings should be making any decision based fit with Holmes.
That is the exact opposite of what I said. I was saying that Sabonis can’t be built around easily, even more difficult than building around Fox.
I said that if Sabonis can’t fit with the ever-elusive 3 & D center (as in Turner, who on paper is the perfect fit), then what type of player does he fit with? What kind of player is a perfect pairing?
Sabonis is not Jokic and I think people are just so tired of losing that they are willing to see Sabonis as something he’s not. IMO, he’s an inferior player to Fox and would make this team worse.
That’s fine. You should just understand that likely isn’t the consensus opinion on the subject and, honestly, I don’t see a lot of arguments that lean towards Fox.
I was assuming this statement:
Was referring to Turner and Holmes in turn.
It’s also worth pointing out that the Pacers have been a 4th seed twice and a 5th seed in the 4 complete seasons since Sabonis arrived. So I think it’s fair to say they’ve been relatively successful. Overall, they’re 141-124. Now, that may not meet the Kings standard for success, but it’s pretty good.
I get that about the difference in player valuation/quality, but I stand by my belief that Fox is the better two-player and I believe Fox still has the tools to become a great player if the right coach could find his motivational button and keep it on. I want to see a playoff Fox or even better, a post-playoff Fox before I write him off. I think the losing in SAC and quality of surrounding players has ground Fox down a bit.
In regards to the floor-spacing big versus old school big, I was only referring to Turner as the floor spacing big as he seems to be the perfect fit along Sabonis but it didn’t work. If it didn’t work out with Turner, then what kind of player does Sabonis (who is an old school big) need as a partner?
I’m just curious why. Why do you think Fox is a better two way player? Because the numbers, individual accolades, and team success so far don’t support that idea. And why do you think Fox “has the tools” to become a great player? What are those “tools?”
Fox’s Profile (IMO)
Pro:
-Speed
-Quickness
-Handles
-Athleticism
-Court vision
-Playmaking capabilities and willing passer
-Scores in the paint at an elite level
-Gets to the FT (still not as often as he’s fouled)
-Has a solid mid-range/float game
Con:
-Inconsistent defensive effort (needs major improvement)
-3P shot (needs major improvement)
-Lacks aggression at times (should be trying to dunk more often to force the foul call)
-Decisions and passing coming out of a PnR (shoots too often and when he does pass to the rolling big man, it’s often in the wrong place)
I think the Cons can be worked on. The “tools” I am speaking of are based on his footwork and quickness.
Fox tends to overplay on dribble fakes/jab-step reactions to the point to where he fouls or is suddenly out-of-position. If he could keep his feet moving but not overplay so much, he’d be more stout at the POA. He’ll plays solid defense initially but if the offensive player is persistent in his attack, Fox will will make a mistake and let the player by. It usually happens after the 3rd or 4th move. I think this could be corrected and in his case, I think its mostly an attitudinal adjustment. Which is why I think its important he tastes the playoffs. He needs to know that feeling.
The aggressive nature might come back if he knew how good he needs to be (playoff good) and that if he plays within himself but more explosively than he has been, there is no reason he can’t be an top 5 scorer in this league.
As far his 3pt shot goes, I would go about in two different ways: (1) have him shoot the 3p at the top of his jump shot-like he does with long 2s, but only off the dribble; (2) for assisted catch-n-shoot shots, I think he needs to work on a set-shot that mirrors his FT motion.
The PnR decision making can be improved with time, reps, experience, and film work. He’ll never the feel for the game that Hali does, but that is a rare gift that not everyone develops. I think he could still improve at this part of his game over time. He is better at making lob passes than he was in years past but his pocket passes are pretty poor (which is why I don’t think he tries them often).
Seems legit.
https://twitter.com/nihilist_bucks/status/1483844787199426562
/runs away laughing at the chaos and destruction!
I don’t know who the hell this guy is, a probable faker, but this is the exact trade that I was debating in my mind yesterday and seemed most realistic.
As I said, I hate the idea of including Halburton (with TT, Marvin, Buddy, and HB) and I can see where this would be the sticking point in the negotiations.
Yet I could also see where the Kings could talk themselves into it. Fox is a primary scorer. Simmons is your facilitator. A lineup of Fox -Davion – Simmons would be lethal defensively.
And I could see where Morey could talk himself into it. Ty projects as an 18/10/2 player, a VERY nice consolation to Simmons. Ty has SO much upside yet SO good now, seemless with Maxey, the personality for a city like PHI, and Morey would get closer to the space he needs to chase Harden this summer.
This deal is far more realistic than anything involving Fox.
I think it’s BS and posted it to be funny.
That Hali/Embiid two-man game though …
It didn’t strike me as an effort to be funny. The dude is a Bucks fan. I am not even sure what his motivation would be. This is why I don’t go on Twitter.
Be honest, you don’t go on Twitter because they only allow 280 characters.
Well played.
Outstanding response.
To be clear, I meant that I posted it on TKH to be funny!
TKH is no place for fun and games … unless you’re talking about the Kings, then it all makes sense.
According to Keith Pompey, the Kings are doing background checks on Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed.
Doesnt that seem weird to do unless there is a backbone of a deal in place?
Hmmmmm.
Without agreement on the main components of the trade, why spend time reviewing minimum salary “throw-in” players?
https://www.inquirer.com/sixers/ben-simmons-sixers-kings-tobias-harris-tyrese-haliburton-trade-rumors-20220119.html
One thing I do know is that this headline is BULLSHIT.
It is a transparent attempt to push for a desired outcome.
It is not going to work but nice try!
There is a difference between being a willingness discuss a player and offering a player to IND and PHI.
“Okay, I am listening go ahead and convince me why I should trade Fox to you”. That is the extent of a willingness to include him in discussions.
And why should that not be the stance of a team 10 games under .500?
But this is far different than SAC offering him to PHI or IND straight for Sabonis or Simmons.
Are we to believe this occured? What is the source of this info? Even Pompey says NO formal offer has been made.
I think the guy is legit. After all the blowback he said he would never tweet real info again. I think someone told him that but I really doubt the Kings part with Hali instead of Fox because the Kings need a floor spacer. If Tyrese is in the trade I think Thybulle is in the trade too.
A totally random person breaking huge Kings news never happens.
If I recall correctly, the Kings didn’t move to Seattle.
The physical body of the Kings may not have moved, but it appears their competitive spirit did!
They left their competitive spirit in Minneapolis back in 2004.
Not for a lack of trying.
but the Maloofs did sell the team to Seattle-based Chris Hansen group, but it had to be NBA approved, so yeah, the tweet was accurate.
Link
You and I have very different ideas about what the phrase “done deal” means.
Well, getting a deal done is a prerequisite to gaining NBA approval. You can’t submit something to the league for approval until the deal is done.
The fact is the random person’s tweet was entirely accurate at the time it posted which is what we were initially discussing…the tweet from the Bucks fan that was posted in jest here, but in reality, could be the fire behind all this smoke.
“Did you come?”
“Almost!”
Done is done. Anything with contingencies is not done. This isn’t even semantics, only a refusal to acknowledge the meaning of a word.
Unfortunately, you seem to have black & white vision in a world of grey.
That’s precious.
Words have meaning. Context may create ambiguity, but that’s not an issue here. It’s an odd choice for you to dig in by insisting that a word having a concrete definition, does not, in fact, mean what it means. If you treat words that way, it makes every thought that you express basically meaningless, since the words aren’t attached to anything other than what you say they mean.
If they were to trade Haliburton to pair Fox with Simmons I might actually just become a fan of a different team. It would be so stupid. I can at least see how Haliburton and Simmons might fit together. I could see how Haliburton and Sabonis could fit together. I can’t see anyone who isn’t a great shooter fitting with Fox and this team having a functional offense unless about 12 other moves are made. Plus I actually think Haliburton could run a good half court offense where I don’t really believe Fox has the ability to because he isn’t a good enough passer or shooter.
Teams need three guys to build around. I’m becoming increasingly convinced that Hali can be one of those three. Fox/Hali seem to limit each other’s strengths when on the floor together so I don’t see Hali/Fox being 2/3 of the big three whereas Sabonis/Hali could be. Trading Fox/Sabonis seems like a great trade to me, even though I’m a huge fan of Fox. Sabonis is only a year older, is on a better contract, and is a comparable asset on the floor, but a better fit (IMO).
So they’ll need to fill out the final third of the big 3. Pray for a top 3 pick this year (and don’t trade it away). Any pick involved in the trade would have to be at least top 10 protected. No way would I included an unprotected pick in this years draft. I could only imagine that this is the year the Kings win the lottery and have three number one candidates that are pretty much can’t miss, but have traded it to Indiana.
The two of the combined for thirty-six points and twenty assists the other night against Houston. I’d agree that they may not be the most ideal pairing, but I don’t buy the theory that each is detrimental to the other’s game or potential.
I understand needing/wanting to move one of them because the FO sees that as the most viable option to retool the team which is going nowhere with this core, but not because they can’t play together. I am certain with a competent coach there is an offense where they both excel and compliment each other.
I still cant believe the Kings bailed on Evans/Martin half way through the season.
They aren’t terrible together. But there has to be more complimentary players. Two guys that need to initiate the offense to be at their most effective and play the same position aren’t the ideal pairings to build around. There is opportunity for a better fit.
I think getting hung up on positions isn’t productive. Fox is a great scorer, but he’s shown that he can average 6-7 assists per game. Haliburton is a great facilitator, but he shoots so well that the team can’t afford to have him always looking to pass first.
These two realities don’t create a problem. The lack of talent around them remains the biggest obstacle in the two of them becoming a first-rate back court duo.
Which, unfortunately, has been the ongoing obstacle as it relates to every talented player we’ve had in Sacramento since we were all much younger.
our roster is unbalanced and would become even more so if we traded Fox for Sabonis.. we are thin at guard or wing.. we desperately need a big that can space, sabonis is 32% career from three. If we get Simmons and Harris we might be more balanced because Simmons can play the three defensively..but will it take Hield, Barnes and Fox? We need another shooter in that case.. this roster needs a jaren jackson miles bridges type player.. or even a Harris for Hield and Bagley… I am fine with trading a Fox but we need better balance and I think it might come from a smaller trade and get a john Collins type trade, or a jerami grant if he can play the three.
Gentlemen, I’m sorry to say, Fox’s value is barely positive
He’s starting a max deal, putting up negative advanced stats while shooting 25% from 3 and playing bad defense
We are at a point of trading him just to trade him
For Sabonis it would be two unprotected with Fox and whatever non Hali/Mitchell they’d need
Should have listened to those who question Fox’s motor years ago, that his career would end up like this. Motor is innate, remember!
Finally. Jesus Christ.
too bad it takes half a season for the front office to see the obvious move.
Looks like there’s an actual rumor, which the Sixers turned down:
https://www.inquirer.com/sixers/ben-simmons-sixers-kings-tobias-harris-tyrese-haliburton-trade-rumors-20220119.html
I don’t have an issue with turning guys over, but I think the problem you face with this deal is that you have three players on the Kings shooting over 30% (yes, thirty) on threes, and you’re dealing all three of them. It would be an absolute mess of an offensive roster and a team that maybe can’t score. That’s fine in the short term. You’re not making that single deal for this season. But if you do make this deal, or the same deal without Thybulle, Fox has to go ASAP for quality starter who can shoot, or that roster might never score a point. The team could defend for sure, but we might be playing games that end with a score of 69-60.
Your top seven with three point percentages would be Fox (25.3%), Terence Davis (30.4%), Holmes (25.7% career), Harris (31.3%), Simmons (Haha), with Mitchell (29.5%) and maybe (?) Thybulle (28.8%) coming off the bench.
I make the deal anyway, but Fox would have to go for someone roughly equivalent who can shoot.
Wouldn’t the Kings be capped out with Fox, Simmons and Harris?
Yes.
I don’t think alot of people get the difficulty of trading for Simmons and Harris. Let’s start with the money.
Harris and Simmons combined make about 69 million. That would take a combination of Fox, Barnes, Hield, Bagley or Thompson. If you don’t include Fox, then you have to consider the possibility that the Kings might go into the luxury tax to do this deal depending on which combination of players get moved and how many total number of them go.
That doesn’t include Tyrese Haliburton btw.
A 5 for 5 trade (which includes Haliburton but not Fox)is nearly impossible in normal circumstances let alone in a season where you have players being signed to 10 day contracts before Christmas because of COVID.
Then you have the logistics of 2 teams making a deal that are cross country that then have to get physicals done on numerous players to certify the deal getting complete.
That is why I don’t see a Harris/ Simmons deal happening. Sabonis is a different animal and problem, but trading for him (or John Collins for that matter) is simply a much simpler task to pull off in the regular season.
And now there’s an Athletic piece that just went up saying the Kings plan on building around Fox. Said it before, but with rumors I never believe any of ’em. Not any more I don’t. Proof is in the pudding. And I think the best moves the Kings can do at the deadline is trade for Sabonis or Collins not using Fox or Halliburton but 1st round picks.
As always, proof is in the pudding.
And apparently the Kings won’t move Fox or Haliburton for Sabonis according to Shams. Thank goodness. This nonsense was, as I suspected, ownership foolishness.
I find that less apparent. With three weeks left, you can afford to harden your position on what’s an acceptable return. The pressure is on Philadelphia, since they have an all-star in his prime, and Embiid could certainly force his way out if he thinks the org isn’t getting him what he needs to get a ring.
I’m not saying that this happens soon, or at all, but if Simmons is still on their roster when the Sixers are bounced out in the second round, it could be the summer of Embiid’s discontent.
Collins for Bagley and a Top 5 protected first? Hell top 3 protected would work for me. Collins at 4 helps, take a flyer on wing with size by trading a team that could use Holmes. I love Holmes but he is replaceable by Jones/Thompson/Len
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