Welcome to our Season Review series. Instead of season grades, we’re going to review the season as a whole for each player individually. We continue with Harrison Barnes.
Although the Sacramento Kings did not find much success on the court this season, the same cannot be said for Harrison Barnes. Sacramento’s starting forward was his typical, reliable self on both ends of the floor, but he also enhanced multiple elements of his offensive game, transforming him into a true scoring threat for the first time in a Kings uniform.
When Barnes came over in the Dallas trade, it was clear that the league didn’t exactly know how to interpret or use his skill set, nor maybe did Barnes himself. He was often a forgotten cog in Golden State’s machinery, an understandable position considering his teammates, but he was also miscast as a max-contract, number one option with the Mavericks. Even his first season-and-a-half in Sacramento wasn’t exactly smooth, as he was typically relegated to nothing more than a spot-up shooter in most sets. This year, that changed, and changed for the better. Luke Walton seemed to finally solve the puzzle of Barnes’ role in an offensive scheme, although Harrison deserves plenty of credit himself.
The largest change for Barnes over the last few seasons, and the genesis of his evolution as an efficient contributor, has been his departure from the ever-despised mid-range jumper. Perhaps no player better represents the league’s transition away from the 15-footer more than Harrison. Four years ago, he ranked eighth in the league in total attempts, putting up an amazing 509 shots from that range, almost seven attempts per game. In 2020, Barnes placed 242nd out of 261 eligible players in mid-range frequency, as he averaged fewer than one mid-range shot every other game:
Interestingly enough, although Barnes has essentially abandoned the midrange, he’s attempted the exact same number of shots each year in Sacramento – 11 per game. This season, he replaced those inefficient pull-ups by attacking the paint, and the results were fantastic, for both Barnes and his teammates.
In 2018, his final year of triple-digit mid-range attempts, Barnes drove the ball five times per game, shooting just 44% from the floor in those instances. Last year, his accuracy and frequency both increased, as he got into the paint 6.1 times a night, knocking down 46% of his attempts, but even those numbers pale in comparison to 2020. Harrison averaged 7.7 drives this season, a 50% increase from just two years ago, and his conversion rate saw a similar jump, all the way to 54%, 14th among all qualified NBA players.
Alongside his scoring prowess as a lane penetrator, Barnes also enjoyed a massive increase in his play-making responsibilities, far more than he’s previously experienced in his nine-years in the league. In driving situations, Harrison more than doubled his assist percentage from his first season in Sacramento, skyrocketing from 5.5% in 2018 to 12.6% in 2020. Overall, Barnes posted a career-high in assists, averaging 3.5 per game, and an assist percentage at 13%, the first instance of him reaching double-digits in his career.
Defensively, Barnes was the same player he’s always been – solid, if unspectacular. On a nightly basis, he can effectively guard opposing wings, both small and power forwards, but he’s unlikely to ever reach the level of a true star stopper. On a team with multiple, high-quality defenders and a sensible defensive scheme, Barnes could act as an important, versatile linchpin, but with the current roster and coaching staff, he’s responsible for far more than his shoulders can comfortably carry. It’ll be up to Monte McNair to secure additional quality defenders this offseason, players who can support and be supported by Barnes’ skill set.
Harrison Barnes rarely hurt the Kings this season, and he often helped them, a rare description of highly-paid role players in Sacramento. This season, he increased his scoring output, decreased his inefficient jumpers to the point of near non-existence, and he took an important step forward in play-making responsibilities. It’s uncommon to see a player of Harrison’s history, caliber, and payday to completely transform their offensive game plan in a single offseason, especially one as crazy as the COVID-shortened 2019 one, and he should be well-recognized for his efforts and execution this year.
I don’t think it is a stretch to say that this past year was Harrison’s best as a pro. I have to give credit to both him and the coaching staff for transforming his game to meet the modern NBA. I really hope and can return this this form for next season and beyond.
Of the core expensive vets, he was the one I least wanted to move at the deadline because of what he brings to the team, but I also realize he might have the most value as a tradeable asset going forward.
I still feel his value might have peaked last deadline, but would love to be proven wrong next spring if the Kings intend to move him for future assets. I like Barnes but have come to terms with reality that he likely won’t be on the next Kings playoff team.
At the rate we are going, Barnes will be 50 when the Kings next make the playoffs. I know players are playing at an older age as time goes on, but 50 will be a stretch.
Solid season, but still overpaid like most Kings (Fox, Buddy, Bagley).
For Buddy and Bagley you are correct, but I don’t understand this overpaid narrative about Barnes and Fox.
If All-Star level players are worth the max (for reference Ben Simmons is making $30 mill in the 1st year of his max extension) and shooters are getting $16-$18 million per year (Harris/Bertans), the leading candidates for 6th man of the year are making between $9-$12 mill per year, then why isn’t Barnes, a bonafide starter, shooter, switchable defender, playmaker, and locker room presence not worth the $22 mill he made this year and the $38 mill left on his deal?
To sum it up and this is based on what I see the NBA values, in my opinion
$30-$40 million per = Young All-Star talents, true All-Stars and Superstar
$20-$25 million per = Starters (PG-PF)
$15-$19 million per = Shooters and Starting Centers
$9-$14 million = 6th man, High level bench
Fox and Barnes are getting paid what they’re supposed to.
I think that is a bit simplistic and lacks context.
For me, it is more what Barnes makes relative to other players who have a roughly similar production.
Look at Kyle Anderson from Memphis and then compare their advanced stats. Barnes has a significant advantage in shooting percentage (TS% of .626 vs .578 for Kyle).
But all the other stats, assist%, reb%, block, steals and TO%, Kyle is significantly better. Better defensive rating (but that is team-influenced), but Kyle also has a positive BPM of 3.1 against – 0.2 for Barnes, and a VORP of 2.5 against 1.0 for Barnes.
And Barnes earned this season $ 24 million against $ 9 million for Anderson.
If I think about the value of Anderson and add another player making $ 15 million (Valanciumas or Dillon Brooks, to name a few) and pit those two against Barnes, it becomes a no brainer.
So yeah, I think he is a significant overpay. And I am a Barnes fan.
Kyle Anderson also plays 27MPG. Barnes 36. That makes a difference even if it’s not that important in your valuations.
Also:
Kyle Anderson – 6″5 , while Barnes – 6″8.
and Barnes has more versatility to score the basket…
Eh, Kyle Anderson is 6″9 and versatile enough in his own right.
But yeah, that’s mainly where the difference in TS% comes to light.
Nate makes a good point about minutes, but the discrepancies, also in shots per game are not that big to put a dent into the valuation, IMO.
Ultimately, this is not to make this a Anderson vs Barnes discussion, but to show a random example that there are players to be had with slightly less overall production but a much lower price tag.
Again, Anderson signed for low because he was a bench player then developed into a starter.
The Kings are not gonna be developing those type of guys.
He started 67 games (out of 74 played) for the Spurs before signing his deal.
Taken out of context I apologize that’s on me.
It’s not literally about just having the number of starts. It’s about production within those starts. Anderson was still a bench level guy (not an insult) in my mind who could also start and got those starts in that Spurs system, but he had glue guy production and got paid like a glue guy. Contrastly the Anderson today is going to get a huge raise in my opinion because his production while continuing to start has also increased.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the same amount as Barnes has gotten now.
Um no, you can’t compare contracts like that from a player who was not as good as Barnes a few years ago when he signed his contract. He was a bench player who got paid bench money, then he developed into a starter. He was worth his contract when he signed and developed into a better player this year.
Thus Anderson is underpaid. That was smart asset management and helluva development by the Grizzlies. So in your mind Barnes is only worth less than $9 million that Kyle Anderson is making? Where’s the logic in that? Barnes is not overpaid, Anderson is just underpaid.
And I’m sticking with my point that what the NBA values players, that’s what they’re worth. Barnes would have gotten at least $18 million a year if he didn’t sign with the Kings, so the $3 million more annually is what the Kings needed to pay which was the right amount for them to keep him. Half of the eligible max is the starting point for starter money, much like the extensions handed out this year to Jonathan Isaac, Derrick White, Markelle Fultz, and Anunoby.
Um, yes, I can.
Show me the rule that says that I cannot do it.
Just because you do not like my manner of assessing these matters does not make it invalid.
Please show me where I make that poiint, or otherwise stop inventing argumenst that I did not make.
Good teams indeed pick players on a trajectory and a timeline and do not overpay them. Bad teams are happy to overpay, call it the Sacramento tax and hope that these players play up to the size of the contract.
You’re saying Barnes is not worth as much as Kyle Anderson based on your production argument, then by implication Barnes must not be worth the $9 million that Kyle Anderson is currently making. Thus Barnes is not worth $9 million? That’s my reasoning for saying that was your point. Let me ask hypothetically, Kyle Anderson hits the market after next season and wants a raise from his $9 million, what annual number should be his starting point in negotiations as a starter in this league?
But I do agree that’s what good teams do and the Kings should do that too but the Kings don’t. Paying to keep players that you gave assets for is also smart if it’s not an overpay, which again I don’t think Barnes was. Also remember his contract is decreasing.
I think Barnes is a solid starter, nothing more, so with that in mind he’s overpaid IMO.
As for Fox, just look at the guys that got the same contract from his draft class (Tatum, Spida). Fox is below them and has accomplished nothing whilst those guys have been in the playoffs every year. Do the Griz have more talent than the Kings? I think they are comparable, yet Ja has his team in the playoffs. I expect more from Fox.
Grizzlies have a better coach, better system, and better players. Ja will be the superstar of that team, but they win as a whole team.
Tatum and Spida have Conference Finals rosters, you can’t compare their success to Fox’s lack of success. Put Tatum on NO and he’s Brandon Ingram. Put Spida on Chicago and he’s Zach Lavine.
29 other teams would have offered the same extension to Fox especially after the bubble he had. Why can’t yall get that through your mind? Young, ascending, lead guard with elite speed is getting the max from any available team.
Kings paid Fox exactly what he’s worth. Whether he wins or not is on the coach and McNair to out the players around him.
By your Tatum and Spida logic, Devin Booker and KAT are overpaid. What have they down without CP3 and Jimmy Butler?
How can they have better players if their payroll does not fit your opinion of NBA values?
They have one player making over 15 million (Valanciunas) who fits your criteria of the starting center salary. All the others are just 6th men and high level bench players, right?
Or, as I said in my initial response: your criteria are a bit simplistic and lack context.
Context matters.
They can have better players even though their payroll is lower. Why? Rookie contracts.
Their players are young and haven’t hit the market yet. In this case of comparing value between young players and what my standard of NBA contract value is, it’s about projection and what the NBA projects.
There are already articles saying Duncan Robinson could fetch $15-$20 million a year this upcoming free agency. Apply that to the Grizzlies.
Ja is gonna get the max when he is eligible. When Anderson hits the market again he’s a $15 mill plus player. So is Brooks. If their younger guys like Bane and Tillman continue on their path, they’re gonna be $10-$15 million plus players too.
So if you’re signing a bonafide starter, the projection should begin at $15-$20 million per year. Which is the range that Bogi got and Gallinari got, which I think are the best comps to the Kings and Barnes situations. A young ascending team having to pay and even overpay to get veteran level starters on the team. If you look at truly overpaid players, Barnes got what he deserved compared to Hayward and Tobias Harris and Wiggins
LOL. Tobias Harris was the best player on the floor for a #1 seed in the playoffs yesterday.
We all know Barnes was available at the deadline, and that he’d be a nice piece for a team trying to make or go deeper in the playoffs. But at his salary, you weren’t getting cap relief plus young talent/draft assets. That’s the reality of Harrison Barnes.
That’s one game against a “defense” of the undersized Wizards who start 3 guards under 6’3″. So please consider the context of the game.
Tobias is the #3 player on that team and is getting paid true max money while never having made an all star team in 10 years.
Always down for considering context, which you could do also when talking about Fox’s performance in Sacramento.
Harris is certainly overpaid. He’s also a very good NBA player that (as we saw yesterday) contributes to winning on a championship level team.
I think I do take Fox’s context into consideration. My understanding of his situation is he’s a B level player that is ascending on a team full of C+ or less players and a D level coach who is getting the most blame for not being able to get this team to the playoffs.
Harris is a good player, but he’s a B player on a team with at least 2 A-minus All-Stars, of course the narrative surrounding him is going to look better than what he actually is.
So you’re saying Barnes is a “C+ or less” level player.
These types of statements are ridiculous. Tatum would be Tatum, and NO would be a better team for it.
Fox was underpaid this year. He’ll likely be overpaid next.
Again wrong.
Why is Fox’s value being placed on the success of this team when the team and coach around him is garbage? His 25 ppg and 7 apg are not garbage stats. He singlehandedly won the Kings games in the 4th quarter this year…
What more do you need to see? If the team gets better players and starts winning but Fox averages the same stats all of a sudden he’s worth the money?
Bradley Beal averaged 30 ppg last year but his team sucked. Man he must have been overpaid huh?
Ah, should have read this first.
It’s about right and wrong, not about differing views. Gotcha.
A part of differing views, discussion, and discourse is arguing your side as being correct and disproving another’s claim that you don’t agree with. As posters on the internet,I understand what my tone may have implied. I’m not trying to sound condescending by any means, but I can believe that you’re wrong and tell you you’re wrong without being labeled as a one-sided “apologist” or stubborn mule (you did not use these words but I’m just using then as an example of what may be implied).
I’m not an ESPN analyst but that’s what everyone on the debate shows do. Or do I have to start my replies with “I get your point, or I understand your point, or sorry if I offend you but I disagree” in order for you to not take me out of context.
You sound like a Fox apologist.
Full disclosure: I think De’Aaron Fox is a better player and has a higher ceiling than DeMarcus Cousins did while he was in Sacramento. But this type of Fox worship feels familiar – I think he can look dominant at times, and some fans equate that to him being a dominant player in the league. Same as they did with Cousins.
He’s just not a high-end NBA player yet. If he was, this team would be better.
No I just don’t understand how you can expect more from Fox when he averaged 27 and 7 the last 3 months of the season, playing the most minutes of his career, and constantly having to put the team on his back in the 4th. Or how you can knock him the most for the lack of success of this team when he’s playing with the worst defense in the league around him. Yes I know he contributed to this as well, but that there’s only so much you can impact on your own when PGs he is guarding are using screens attacking your bigs with no fear or driving and kicking to open shooters with no resistance. Also with only one other shot creator (I’ll give you 2 with Haliburton) on the team, how does one not see the true value of Fox?
Am I a Fox apologist or are expectations for Fox too high? Why does Fox get superstar criticism when
1) Fans don’t see him as a superstar.
2) Fox is obviously not on that level.
3) The team around him is certainly not contributing to winning either, so putting most of the blame on him is not ideal, which it seems like those who criticize Fox and his contract are doing.
Isn’t Fox part of that “worst defense in the league”?
I expect more from Fox because his salary is going from $8 million this season to $28m/$30m/$32m/$34m/$37m.
I did include that in my evaluation of Fox, but why does Draymond Green get defensive player of the year votes and talk every year they are winning, but the talk about him was roughly nonexistent last year when they sucked and Curry and Klay were out?
It takes more than one guy. Especially your lead guard who is carrying the load offensively. I’ve made this point before but show me another point guard who shoulders both offensive and defensive loads. I agree Fox needs to get ALOT better and more locked in but when the pieces around him and schemes are WAY better than they are now, that’s when we can start to truly judge his defense.
Golden State was way better than they should have been, considering their roster. They overachieved this season. The Kings underachieved this season. That’s what guys like Draymond and Curry bring to the floor. The remainder of that roster was abysmal.
By the way, the Dubs were the fifth best defense in the NBA this season. Draymond should probably get some DPOY votes this year too.
Team success certainly plays a big role in all the awards. That said, Draymond also only played 41 games last season. He wouldn’t have been in the DPOY conversation even if they had been good.
No he doesn’t. I’m usually against whatever side of a discussion K_L is on. I don’t care what team you put D Fox on there is not one who would not have given him the same contract the Kings gave him (let’s not get bogged down in the difference between 4 and 5 year’s).
Of course that’s an overstatement but out of 30 teams in the NBA there would have been a handful who would have been willing to offer him the max contract as a RFA. This is one case where the Kings didn’t over pay, they paid market rate.
How am I wrong? He was underpaid to his on-court value under this year’s contract. Under next year’s, he’ll likely be overpaid if he plays at the same level.
He’s the best player on a team that has gotten worse the last two seasons. The team had a considerably better record this season when Fox was out, and when he was healthy, the team had a better NetRating with him on the bench. Interestingly enough, the team was also much worse with him on the floor in the 4th quarter this season.
So, in my opinion, he’s “likely” to be overpaid next season. If he makes a leap, then that won’t necessarily be the case.
When Fox was out, which I believe your talking about the end of the season soft as butter schedule. You’re using that small stretch of basketball as saying the team was considerably better without Fox. I can’t even fathom having that thought.
Idk how you can see the pieces on this team and think Fox can take them to the playoffs and put the blame on him for not doing so. We probably have the 13th ranked roster in the West in terms of talent and all-star potential.
The opponents’ win-loss record over those last 11 games was 50.7%, which I believe is higher than the season as a whole.
Regardless, I’m in no way saying that this team is better without De’Aaron Fox. Just that he hasn’t yet pushed this team to a higher plane, because he hasn’t pushed himself there.
That Dallas roster is no better than the Kings outside of Doncic. I don’t think that Memphis roster is significantly better than the Kings.
He’s getting the superstar contract now. No more space for excuses about rosters or anything else. If he’s a genuine #1 guy on a playoff team, it’s time to show it.
But hear me out, it’s not right to judge Fox and his contract on this current team. Because the truth is if they didn’t give Fox the max, they take it to Restricted free agency, and another team guaranteed is offering him the max. So your only two choices are to match the offer or trade him.
I don’t think you want Fox traded after just 4 years right? So either way, he was getting the max eventually so getting it done early was smart and avoided any bad blood that Fox may have developed. In that sense, the right time Fox can truly be judged on the wins and losses is when he finally gets the right pieces around him, much like Booker and KAT did.
That’s why I don’t put so much stress in Fox not bringing the wins right now. My eyes tell me that Fox is a max player. Based on how he played the last 3 months of the season especially offensively, I don’t see how he’s not a max player.
I have no issue with the team giving Fox the max contract. They could have tried to deal him, but I’m not sure they get back equivalent value in that scenario.
This is the way the game is played, especially for smaller market teams. It’s a calculated gamble, based on the idea that Fox has a higher ceiling.
But next season is Fox’s fifth. The time for giving him a pass because of the roster is over. His team has regressed two straight seasons, and his personal improvement last season was minimal. And he has personally vouched for a head coach that doesn’t seem to really challenge him, which I find concerning.
There’s no more excuses going forward, is all I’m saying. Great players make their teams great. My eyes tell me that Fox is a good but not great NBA player.
Hope I’m wrong.
Barnes is a keeper. His true value will show when the parts around him get better.
Buddy needs to go, not just for his flaws and the frustrations he causes, but Tyrese needs to be the starting SG.
Also, Barnes played his best when he was the primary 3 and moved to the 4 as the game went along. His 3 point shot seemed to struggle banging with 4s and 5s all game. We need a true scoring or defending 4.
Why didn’t we offer the bag for Christian Wood? Ridiculous.
Include Buddy, Bagley, and any picks for Siakam. See if Detroit is willing to part ways with Jerami Grant. Kevin Love and Al Horford can do some vet stuff for the remainder of their contracts like CP3 has done (obviously to a lesser extent). McNair needs to make a big move.
I agree on Wood, I was hoping Monte would go after him. So far Monte has not impressed, too many missed opportunities including the Bogdan debacle.
If I were to assign a grade to Barnes’ season I would give him a B+. I like his game and hope he’s on next years starting roster.
To me, Barnes certainly deserves at least A- this season…
He just did nothing wrong on / off the court…..
High BBIQ player…poised…did everything what coach tell him to do….(like even guarding B Lopez)……..
I like Barnes, can play 3/4………
Just keep him……we need veteran and high BBIQ player on this team………
p.s. What I saw during the season is Walton did not tell Barnes to post up more as the season goes by……….(Barnes either get the bucket or get fouled whenever he posts up in the paint)
The real question is what did Barnes do to deserve the demotion from Warriors to Mavs to Kangz?
He’s a real pro. I’m impressed that he had his best season surrounded by this Kangz dumpster fire.
The only player on the Kangz roster that legitimately plays well on both ends of the floor.
Hali is going to catch soon though,
Might be more accurate to say the only player on the Kangz roster that legitimately plays not poorly on both ends of the floor. Though I’d say Holmes plays equally “not poorly” on both ends.
I wish we could all get out of fantasy GM, cap doctor’ mode. I really do. Barnes is slightly overpaid. So what ? He is a multitalented combo forward right when that is becoming the norm in the league. Who started at forward for #2 Phoenix today? Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder. If we can get a Bridges we can keep Barnes as our Crowder. It’s all about combining skills. You could play Buddy and Haliburton together if one of them defended like Danny Green. But they don’t. So you have to try to move Buddy, not because he’s overpaid. You CAN play Barnes at the 4 along with a fast, lanky, 3&D guy. Barnes is a good guy who is happy being a 3rd option, and as the post points out, has really updated his game. Those don’t grow on trees. Overpaid or not.
Not to be pedantic, but Bridges and Crowder combined made about $5 million less than Barnes this season. That stuff matters, whether you like to talk about the cap or not.
As long as there is a salary cap, production to cost is going to matter to overall team success.
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