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Making sense of Marvin Bagley’s minutes

Marvin Bagley has been playing well, so why isn't he playing more?

Marvin Bagley scored 7 of the Kings first 10 points against the Celtics on Wednesday. It was another hot start for the Kings third year big man, and yet Bagley finished the game with just 9 points in 19 minutes of action. Marvin checked out with 7:15 minutes left in the third quarter and never re-entered the game.

This has been a pattern this season. Bagley starts every game, has a few bright moments early, and then is mostly missing for the second half of play. So why won't Luke Walton play Marvin Bagley in key moments?

It's not hard to figure out if we look at who Walton is playing in those crunch time minutes.

Harrison Barnes, who we noted is playing the best basketball of his career, plays the power forward position in the Kings standard closing lineup. Walton has consistently gone with a closing five of De'Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Richaun Holmes.

Bagley's minutes are limited because Walton doesn't play Bagley at center, and because Barnes is the better option at the power forward spot.

But there's another reason too, and that's defense. Bagley isn't alone on the Kings in being an atrocious defender. Bagley, Cory Joseph, Glenn Robinson III, and Chimezie Metu are all among the league's worst players in defensive rating. And that's why none of those players are receiving heavy minutes in the second half of games.

For comparison, the closing lineup of Fox, Haliburton, Hield, Barnes, and Holmes has a net rating for the season of +23.5. If you replace Hield with Bagley (for a Fox, Hali, Barnes, Bagley, Holmes lineup), the net rating is -1.6.

So the next time Bagley gets off to a hot start only to disappear in the second half, you don't need to wonder why. It's because of defense, and because the small ball lineup with Barnes is far more effective.

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arbexfernando
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February 4, 2021 11:06 am

Last night he had a beautiful play going coast to coast, almost ended up in a possible three point play. He missed both FTs, it was a sad outcome. At least he hasn’t been stripped so much.

Tunel_21
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February 4, 2021 11:16 am

Surprised we didn’t a Team Bagley tweet after he he didn’t come back in the game.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ben Strause
ElRonToro
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February 4, 2021 11:36 am

The Kings only have 6 decent players. Right now Buddy is 5 and MB3 is 6. The only time Bags will be in at crunch time will be if we need the rebounding.
I do think Marvin should be up closer to 28 mpg which can easily be accomplished in the first 40 minutes of the game.

Last edited 1 year ago by ElRonToro
RikSmits
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February 4, 2021 11:52 am
Reply to  ElRonToro

Because defense doesn’t matter in the first halves of games?

ElRonToro
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February 4, 2021 12:59 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

No because you can’t play 5 guys 48 minutes so it seemed logical to me that the 6th best player would get the most minutes compared to the rest of the bench. Also, I don’t see a lot of players on the bench who are accustomed to playing D.

Kendogfunky
February 4, 2021 11:36 am

Bagley shld be getting those closing minutes over Buddy!

richie88
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February 4, 2021 11:58 am
Reply to  Kendogfunky

IMO, it depends on how well each of them is playing in a game.

Klam
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Nostradumbass 18
Nostradumbass 19
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February 4, 2021 3:35 pm
Reply to  Greg

Bingo.

9sac8
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February 4, 2021 2:16 pm
Reply to  Kendogfunky

Nah bro. You’re trippin.

You get a STAMP for that. Before you answer….DENIED.

Last edited 1 year ago by 9sac8
Kfan
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February 4, 2021 3:41 pm
Reply to  Kendogfunky

With his poor D and FT% hanging around 50%, there is no way Bagley should be in there in crunch time.

andy_sims
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February 4, 2021 11:37 am

I kind of assumed that he was pulled initially because he picked up a couple of early fouls, and found himself locked onto the bench for most of the first half. The Kings were playing well in the second half, so there wasn’t a great need to get Bagley back in.

At some point, Lose Walton is going to need to let Marvin play those crunch-time minutes, because it is key to his development. Lose Walton is still trying to win games, and not perform his main function: Providing growth opportunities for the young guys.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 11:47 am
Reply to  andy_sims

And that is the problem. What is McNair’s end game here? He has the authority to tell Walton to play Bagley in crunch time and go with a youth movement, but I’m not seeing it…and this has me very worried.

Walton is attempting to win games and that means limiting Bagley. To be clear, I’m am NOT for attempting to make the playoffs. If there were a tank bandwagon, I’m already on board. The truth is, the Kings are not making the playoffs and once again looking like a late lottery team stuck in purgatory. This year’s draft is just too good to be on the outside looking in. As much as Fox and Hali are the future, they are going to need another legit star to become relevant in the West.

These wins have been nice, but we need a reality check. Not one of them came against a healthy opponent. All those teams were missing key starters and players due to injury/protocols. I would have given the Kings a near zero chance of winning that game last night had the C’s had Walker and Smart. The Kings have been very lucky to stay this healthy, but I feel it has lead to an inflated perception as to how good they are.

RikSmits
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February 4, 2021 11:59 am
Reply to  Adamsite

I have heard comments like that a few times:

He has the authority to tell Walton to play Bagley in crunch time and go with a youth movement, but I’m not seeing it€¦and this has me very worried.

I have my doubts. GM constructs the roster, the coach is in charge of line-ups, substitutions and playing time.

I am sure in most relationships there is back and forth and people make suggestions and listen to each other, but ultimately a GM should not dictate who plays when. And I think if McNair is forcing such stuff upon the coaching staff, it would be known around the league and would scare off potential coaching candidates.

I could be wrong, of course. This would be a nice topic to discuss with Jerry on the podcast.

Gregoryl
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February 4, 2021 12:02 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Right, and Luke is coaching for his coaching future. Put yourself in his shoes: The team only has him guaranteed thru next season. If they want him to develop certain guys for certain minutes, he should ask for a longer guaranteed contract. If they won’t, than he needs to focus on wins and losses only, in order to better set himself up for the future.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 12:14 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I remember reading something about how he and Morey dictated to D’Antoni in how best to use both Westbrook and Paul with Harden. They brought the data on when and how to play them together.

If McNair is indeed and analytics guy, it is not passed him to see the obvious that Bagley should be sitting in crunch time if you want to win games. Could it be Walton’s realization? Maybe, but I’ve not seen anything in Walton’s past to tells me he knows his ass from a tea kettle when it comes to rotations. Hell, he is still giving Joseph way too many minutes.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 12:04 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

As you mentioned, we don’t know what McNair’s expectations are for this team. Maybe he believes they’re striking the right balance by letting Bagley start and Halliburton finish. He voluntarily sent Woodard and Ramsey to the G-League, so it’s not like he’s pushing for a complete youth movement in Sac. Also, the Rockets basically never tanked when he was in their front office.

Maybe he just believes that it’s important to build a winning culture, and is confident he can improve the roster without a high draft pick. I don’t know if he actually thinks this way, but it’s at least worth considering.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 12:20 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

This all could be true, but the difference in Houston is they were a perennial contender with an MVP superstar, if not two. The Kings are and have neither.

It is true that Houston never drafted any of their stars, but I don’t think that is the right approach for Sac.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 12:39 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Yeah I mean we all have our opinion about how to best build this team. But ultimately, all we can really do is judge McNair on his actual job performance.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 3:09 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

a fun thought experiment is how can McNair improve this roster if the goal is to make a push for the playoffs while still building for the future?

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 3:36 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I don’t think you can.

He could probably leverage the future to make a playoff push, but that would be a horrible decision.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 5:00 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I don’t know about that. who would’ve thought Kent Bazemore was going to play as well as he did when he got here. Same thing with Alex Len. There’s plenty of cheap ways to improve your team in the short run.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 7:18 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Did those guys add wins though?

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 9:41 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I think so. Sometimes just replacing a bad players with league average players is enough add a few wins.

wilbur10
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February 4, 2021 9:41 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I think from McNair’s perspective there’s not much he can do. Sure Barnes probably has some solid value right now, but what message does it send to the guys in the locker room if he ships him out to say Boston for Langford and a pick? I think he’s going to let this play itself out- if at the deadline this team looks like it’ll legitimately compete for a playoff spot I think he lets them ride it out, with maybe some slight tweaks (Joseph, Bjelica, MAYBE Buddy) and then look to make some tweaks in the off-season. If they flame out he probably looks to ship both Barnes and Hield by the deadline.

CoreyBrewersD
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February 4, 2021 3:02 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Houston got Harden for Peanuts, the McHale days weren’t pretty. I could agree that a winning culture, a place you want to be… or at least stay is critical. Otherwise any and all homegrown talent ends up walking out, or getting overpaid. Dumping DMC was the beginning of the reset IMHO. Point being you aren’t going to get a legit star to come here and help, even by trade with a revolving door of personnel. I don’t mind winning now.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 4:43 pm
Reply to  CoreyBrewersD

Peanuts? They got a prime Kevin Martin, a rookie Jeremy Lamb, two future #1 and a 2nd for a RFA in Harden who finished a 16, 3, 4 season.

Sure, looking back it was a big win for Houston, but at the time the Rockets gave up their leading scorer in Martin, a rookie, and future assets for OKC’s 6th man.

Kingsguru21
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February 4, 2021 4:58 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

at the time the Rockets gave up their leading scorer in Martin, a rookie, and future assets for OKC’s 6th man.

This is a generous take Adam. It was about money. Presti just found a way to make it work.

Adamsite
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February 4, 2021 7:18 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

True, OKC could not afford Harden, but to say it was peanuts at that time is a bit much, IMO.

CoreyBrewersD
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February 5, 2021 3:09 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

LOL “a prime Kevin Martin” If Kmart is your top dog you were going nowhere. Back to my thought though, regardless of value there are going to be salary dump/I want out guys. They will refuse Sac due to culture period, 15 years of losing and disfunction is repulsive. Do what NJ di and build culture. Then you can make a move Trade or (gasp) free agency. Those guys would have gone to Knicks ….except culture.

WizsSox
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February 4, 2021 6:25 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

This is where I am at…would it be great to get a top 4 pick, of course. It’s just not super likely. The Kings are not that bad…even going sub optimal line ups like Bagley in the 4th more, I don’t see how this team gets below 7th/8th pick range, without major injuries. That doesn’t give them a great shot of moving up to the top 3 or 4, where the franchise changing talent frequently resides.

If you look at the drafts over the last ten years there is almost no difference between picking 5-9 and 10-14. Each range has about the same number of All Stars and basically are even on which range gets the most win shares vs the other range in their draft.

I think I might feel better about this team going forward if they got in play in tourney or just missed out versus “bottoming out” to 7/8 slot. That would mean they showed some continued development in Fox/Haliburton and moving in the right direction. New coach comes in next year and who knows. I just don’t see a huge difference in drafting 13th versus 7th and historically the draft shows that it doesn’t matter really.

Adamsite
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February 4, 2021 7:26 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

First, this draft is different, IMO. There are perennial all-stars in the top 5. This is looking like the best draft class since Lebron.

Second, the Kings could be that bad if they moved Buddy and Barnes for nickels on the dollar for future assets. Don’t go for equal value. Move those guys and give minutes to the likes of Ramsey and Woodard and see what you have going forward. Let Walton do what he does and evaluate. Pick your coach for the future this summer.

Third, target that op 5 lottery position this year and the next year as well. Plan for the playoffs as a serious team in 2023 when the Lebrons, Currys and Leonards are aged out in the West.

OLDBHOY
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February 4, 2021 12:18 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

This is THE question for this season, wins or development?

We saw what development, ala Bagley playing more, looks like when Whiteside was DNP/injured. Ugly losses….

Whiteside playing minutes means they are going for wins right now.

Whether that is the right game plan I don’t know.

Bagley can’t play in the 4th of a close game at this point. Even after showing some small improvement in defense recently, he is on the wrong side of average. He still way too often looks lost out there. Plus, also recently his FTs have been awful…2 for 15 in the last 7 games. YIKES!

9sac8
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February 4, 2021 2:29 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I think the end game is simple and we only make it complex. I agree, Monte does need to make some moves. Specifically Bjelly, Parker, James, CoJo…just to name a few. I actually think we could use Parker right now. We’re balling though. I have to believe Monte is watching though, with a plan. Maybe the plan was always to win games. A couple of good moves honestly puts us closer to the 7th seed than the 8th. Look at the league. LOOK AT IT. Everyone is getting their asses kicked. Brooklyn has 2.5 hall of famers on their team. Granted they’ve played better lately, but what are they like 13-9 or something mediocre.

Yo. We are legit 6 games out of 1st place and playing some very fun and competitive games. We think we’re supposed to win now. If you don’t like that, you don’t like Kings basketball. Deadass.

With that being said, send Bagley to Chicago for Markkanen.

You get a STAMP too, and a pre-DENIED for right, logical, or rational responses.

GO KINGS

Adamsite
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February 4, 2021 2:34 pm
Reply to  9sac8

Lol, the STAMP thing is definitely your schtick, and I like it. Again, like I said, I think these wins have been a bit of fools gold. If the Kings can consistently beat healthy opponents the team will get my praise. I feel the next 3 games against Denver, the Clips and the 76ers are going to be the indicator of the reality of things…that is if those teams play their key players.

9sac8
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February 5, 2021 4:30 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Agreed. STAMP rescinded. 🤝

richie88
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February 4, 2021 12:12 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Since MB3’s improving w/the current approach, I can understand the current approach (though I’d like to see MB3 in the closing lineup if he’s outplaying Buddy). I’ll definitely be worried if MB3 continues to improve & the approach doesn’t change by early next season at the latest.

Kingsguru21
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February 4, 2021 12:13 pm
Reply to  richie88

Well put.

TerzoM
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February 4, 2021 1:54 pm
Reply to  richie88

Agree. The future is Fox, Hali, MBIII. Hope Monte make right moves with HB and Buddy trade. I see good things in a few years

CoreyBrewersD
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February 4, 2021 3:07 pm
Reply to  TerzoM

You have to keep Barnes. Otherwise the culture goes to shyt. Barnes is our Corliss the steady pro is required.

Last edited 1 year ago by CoreyBrewersD
TheGrantNapear
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February 4, 2021 3:12 pm
Reply to  CoreyBrewersD

An overpaid mouthpiece isn’t necessary as the culture vet. Heck Iman Shump was available until recently getting picked up. Plenty of cheap vets available that the young players can look up to and learn from.

CoreyBrewersD
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February 4, 2021 4:11 pm
Reply to  TheGrantNapear

Funny Grant N would mention overpaid mouthpiece. Culture is from the rotation guys and the bench guys. Why would they look up to a bench warmer vs a guy with 2 finals appearances, a ring, and got let go into a maxish deal, to make room for a top 2 NBA player. If Barnes goes I would be surprised. That declining deal, and the likelihood that Bags is dealt to bring in a consistent difference maker. are additional reasons to keep him on. To dump him for PT or salary freedom would go the wrng way IMHO.

TerzoM
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February 4, 2021 5:51 pm
Reply to  CoreyBrewersD

Fox (23), MBIII (21), Hali (20). How will these 3 look in their prime in 4-5 years as contenders? I hope Monte figures out the missing pieces to get us there.

Amonk81
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February 4, 2021 10:47 pm
Reply to  TerzoM

i think, if McNair is smart he’s gonna jettison Bagely. Bags is not a player for the modern game. Never will be. Teams don’t need a big who can’t really defend and doesn’t really defensive rebound.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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February 4, 2021 11:39 am

Yup, it ain’t rocket surgery. The Kings are better with the small lineup and Bagley on the bench. Until Bagley can become a plus defender, hell, even an average defender, he is going to find himself sitting in crunch time.

Truth be told, I don’t ever see Bagley become a solid defender. His instincts, positioning, and foot work just aren’t there. There is a reason Coach K utilized a zone when Bagley was defending. He had to hide him within the team defense.

If Tristan Thompson can force you to the bench, you have some serious work to do.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 11:51 am
Reply to  Adamsite

But it’s OK when Tristan schools Holmes? Holmes had a terrible game outside of that awesome block. Not only were a healthy majority of Tristan’s, Williams, and Theis’ points scored on him, He was also thoroughly outrebounded and provides little to no offense.

Adamsite
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February 4, 2021 12:08 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I look to the trend, not the exception. Bagley currently sits at -7.2 NETRTG while Holmes is at career best 3.1.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 12:24 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Yet according to defensive rating Bagley only gives up 2 more pts per 100 possessions than Holmes despite not being able to play through slumps like Holmes is afforded. And Bagley gives up less points per 100 than the other players that end the game: Barnes, Fox, Halliburton, and Buddy.

OLDBHOY
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February 4, 2021 12:33 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I think that is because they are often on the floor together. Holmes almost always takes the tougher defensive assignment. Also, as a team defender, he covers or tries to cover for Bagley’s (and Buddy’s) defensive lapses.

kings4ever
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February 4, 2021 1:32 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

True!

kings4ever
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February 4, 2021 1:31 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Holmes ORTg is 30 points per 100 possessions higher:

Holmes 132-115 (+17)
Bagley 102-117 (-15)

So there is a little 32 point net discrepancy there, i.e. difference between a major winner and loser.

Holmes takes only good shots, within his limitations, he leads NBA in FG% or close to it. Bagley has machinations on being a 25 PPG.

If you are contending Holmes and Bagley should be given equal regard to playing time and playing through mistakes the stats you cite refute that emphatically.

Bagley wants to win in the context of being a Top 10 scorer. He wants to follow in footsteps of Fox and get that max contract. Holmes does not have that mindset. Bagleys selfish offense can hurt the team on both ends in a similar way that Holmes selfless offense helps the team on both ends.

Even if you are right, that Holmes defense has slipped, maybe it has, he’s still way more valuable and effective than Bagley. He also guards the toughest frontcourt match-up, most recently checking Zion while Bagley was assigned to the cupcake center filling in for Adams.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 1:55 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

So Holmes is a better offensive player now too? LMAO.. ok. The matchups change game to game. Bagley also covered Randle while Holmes got the cupcake assignment on Robinson.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 2:32 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

uh there’s probably more appropriate words you can use to describe Randle’s performance against Bagley.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 2:48 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Yikes. Can’t believe they allow that verbage on here. Randle is one of the best PF’s in the game. Tristan Thompson, Thies, and Williams III are not. Holmes got worked over by journeymen. You don’t want to like Bagley nor have you played a minute of competitive basketball in your life…that much is clear.

rockbottom
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February 4, 2021 9:14 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Actually Barnes guarded Randle down in crunch time for the win ! Randle was abusing Bagley !

HopelesslyHopeful
February 4, 2021 1:51 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I’m not a Bagley hater like a lot of guys, and I’ve liked the improvement from him recently, but yeah, Holmes is on another level compared to Bags on D. On one of the King’s Pulse podcasts they talked about the defensive rating of Holmes vs Bagley when they weren’t on the floor together and it was staggering. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but basically Bagley on the floor without Holmes = horrendous defense.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 2:56 pm

I’m not saying that Holmes isn’t a better defender. That IS his strength. But he does have bad games, and I don’t think he’s that good of a player that you don’t even consider sitting him, when he is playing bad.

HopelesslyHopeful
February 4, 2021 7:29 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Now that is a valid point. I was actually disappointed Bagley got glued to the bench like he did after a strong showing early on. And I understand that this is the point of the article, but I guess I’m with you that I wish he’d gotten a chance to see what he can do. King’s Pulse podcast that dropped after the Celtics game talks about this issue. Also, the comments from another user on here about Bagley’s selfish offensive style are a bit outdated. He’s been playing within the flow of the offense, he’s not a black hole like he used to be, and he does at least try on defense, even though he’s still a far cry from an even average defender. Here’s hoping he can put it together and at least become a solid starter/ 2 way player.

OLDBHOY
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February 4, 2021 12:10 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Completely agree (instincts, positioning, and foot work just aren’t there) and have been saying it for a while. He has a hill to climb to just be average.

BUT, he can and should improve since he is so young. First, get him to be an OK team defender that is mostly effort and smarts (Haliburton!). He can work on footwork etc, in the offseason.

Amonk81
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February 4, 2021 11:06 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

I don’t think so. It’s difficult to learn defensive movement, boxing out etc. Look at Buddy. How much better has he gotten at D? A tad, maybe. Or ball handling? But at least Buddy is elite at something.

Thinking Bagley is gonna turn into a real core piece is flawed, in my option. At best he’s a bench/barley starter.

Amonk81
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February 4, 2021 10:59 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Exactly. Bags should not be in the future plans for the Kings.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 11:46 am

I understand the reason for ENDING the game with that lineup. Still doesn’t make sense to give Bagley ZERO fourth quarter minutes. He’s been playing better on both ends of the court and deserves to get a taste of the 4th when he’s playing well.

Gregoryl
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February 4, 2021 12:03 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Walton is playing for wins. The team has been winning lately with MB3 on the bench in the 4th.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 12:11 pm
Reply to  Gregoryl

They’ve still lost more games than they’ve won. This has been the trend throughout the whole season, not just during this recent stretch of good play. Even playing for wins he can get minutes early in the quarter while you end with the preferable small ball lineup.

OLDBHOY
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February 4, 2021 12:27 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Not in a close game. He is clueless on the defensive end, especially as a team defender. Plus, his FTs have been awful recently.

As ugly as Whiteside’s offensive game is if the Kings are trying to win now Whiteside should be getting some of Bagley’s minutes. He simply does not allow as many easy baskets.

When Whiteside plays more than 12 minutes the Kings are 7-2.
When he DNPs or plays less than 12 minutes the Kings are 3-9.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 12:42 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Agree with the FT assessment, disagree with the “clueless on the defensive end” assessment. He’s shown great strides in correcting the little things: He’s galloping less. Staying low and engaged, crossing those feet up less. Also keeping a head on a swivel in regards to defensive positioning in relation to ball and man. If he was truly clueless he wouldn’t be showing improvement in these areas. Also his defensive rating isn’t as bad as you’d think. Taking the top 8 players in total minutes played, only Holmes gives up less points per 100 possessions than Bagley.

Adamsite
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February 4, 2021 12:50 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I’m not understanding you logic here. Are you trying to say Bagley is the second best team defender because of that one stat?

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 12:57 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I’m not understanding your logic in failing to understand my logic. I’m not saying that he’s the second best defender. I’m saying he’s shown strides in growth on the defensive side of the ball and that there’s no reason to ban him from 4th quarter minutes. Not even saying he needs to finish the games, but just never playing him in the quarter is absurd.

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February 4, 2021 1:16 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

But… his benching in the 4th has coincided with the Kings winning 4 out of their las 5.

In the last 4 games where Marvin hasn’t played in the 4th, the Kings are a +23.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 3:00 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I said it somewhere else but I’ll say it again….Not playing Bagley in the 4th has pretty much been going on the whole season and we still have more losses than wins. I enjoy the winning. I’m just not sure that playing Bagley early in the 4th would equate to us losing the games that we won.

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February 4, 2021 3:25 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Remember that string of games where the Kings put up historically bad defensive numbers? Marvin got significant 4th quarter minutes then.

Case in point, in the Clipper game where the Kings lost by 38, Marvin played the entire 4th and the Kings still lost the quarter by 9. As for the Clippers…PG13 was the only starter to get minutes…and it was just 3.

Sure it was garbage time, but him getting all of those minutes while the rest of the starters rested is all you need to know.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 4:16 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

That’s one game and game was already over by the time the 4th started. I don’t recall Bagley getting ” significant ” 4th quarter minutes in any other game. That ” historical stretch ” was also against 9 of the top 10 offensive teams in the NBA and it’s not even remotely reasonable to pin that stretch on Bagley.

Amonk81
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February 4, 2021 11:11 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I feel like people are wearing Kings glasses when it comes to Bagley. He’s not playing at the end or whole 4th because he’s not very good. Maybe people think he will become good….i don’t, but he’s playing the minutes he’s earned/hasn’t earned.

Said this before, but if Kings fans saw Bagley in another team no way you’d want him.

OLDBHOY
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February 4, 2021 12:52 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

He is improving but still WAY below average. His recent improvement is encouraging but he is still often out of position and looks like he is on skates. He needs to be in the weight room too, he gets pushed around way too easily.

I think it comes down to trust, Walton simply does not trust him with the game on the line.

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February 4, 2021 12:59 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

I’ve also noticed a trend, but can’t find any hard stats to back it up:

When teams begin to target Bagley, specifically in the PnR and isolate him on the perimeter, where he inevitably gets burned, Walton then switches to a zone to hide Bagley on following possessions.

This appears to make Bagley look like he is improving on defense, but in reality the Kings are just hiding his weakness.

Is there a stat somewhere that shows how often the Kings switch to a zone and how often Bagley is apart of that switch?

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 1:04 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Prior to the road trip I read an article that said that we lead the NBA in off ball switches, and that could be a contributor to our historically poor start, because it was too easy for other teams to exploit the matchups they wanted. I would like to know where that kind of info could be had as well…maybe it’s only for the advanced insiders?

rockbottom
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February 4, 2021 9:19 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Coach K played zone mostly due to Bagley and terrible D !

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 1:00 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Yeah I’d disagree that he’s WAY below average. I do agree that he needs to get stronger, and I think his game will improve exponentially as he does. He has a light frame and he’s 21, it takes some time, for post guys with his kind of frame to find their strength in the NBA.

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February 4, 2021 11:48 am

If Marvin is fine with not closing (or at least understands why he isn’t out there), I say roll with it. If he can play and be effective for 30 of the first 36 minutes that would allow a lot of rest to be distributed to the closing group

RikSmits
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February 4, 2021 12:01 pm

Really, we should let Marvin’s feelings dictate who plays during crunch time?

Next thing you tell me we should ask his dad too.

BuffaloDiaspora
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February 4, 2021 1:48 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Because making personnel decisions that seem random and capricious is terrible management? If there are concrete reasons (there are!) why a young player who is playing decently and has a lot of investment from the team isn’t closing out games that needs to be clearly communicated to and understood by everyone involved.

If Marvin has an issue with it and is harboring resentment then he should be traded. I’m not suggesting he should close games if that isn’t the right lineup, I am suggesting that good management practices should apply.

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February 4, 2021 9:30 pm

Thanks for the clarification, because your original post did not cover that.
This I agree with.

richie88
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February 4, 2021 11:56 am

I’m fine w/MB3 not playing in the closing lineup if he isn’t playing better than Buddy, but I’d like to at least have him play more minutes prior to closing time.

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February 4, 2021 11:58 am

The issue seems to be that Fox, Hield, Haliburton and Barnes are four to have on the floor for closing out games. Holmes is a better fit with that group than Bagley, especially defensively.

richie88
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February 4, 2021 12:02 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I think Fox, Hali, Barnes & Holmes are players who need to be in the closing lineup, but whether Buddy or MB3 should be the 5th closer depends on who’s playing better. Additionally, MB3 should play more in the 2nd half prior to closing time.

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February 4, 2021 12:03 pm
Reply to  richie88

I would make the decision less on who’s playing better and more on matchups, but I see your point.

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 12:03 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Wouldn’t you at least have to have some data on a Fox, Hield, Haliburnton, Barnes, Bagley lineup to make the assertion of a “better fit”? I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that lineup, even when Holmes is struggling.

richie88
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February 4, 2021 12:04 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I’m pretty sure that I saw that lineup at least a few times earlier this season.

RobHessing
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February 4, 2021 12:05 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I think that you can reasonably assess the strengths and weaknesses of Holmes and Bagley and make a determination. I see Holmes as much more effective on the defensive interior. Your mileage may vary.

kings4ever
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February 4, 2021 12:24 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

Every time Bagley has been asked to play defensive center, it has been a total disaster. I guess you didn’t notice and apparently our coach didn’t notice either because he wasted about 5 games trying Bagley there, when anyone with a better grasp on his roster would have known better. This “experiment” coincided with our record faling off and Whiteside DNP-CDs. Takeaway: Our coach is a slow learner.

andy_sims
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February 4, 2021 1:21 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

When you’re giving a prized draft pick valuable experience, win or lose, those games aren’t “wasted.”

kings4ever
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February 4, 2021 1:52 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

It was evident before the season Bagley was not a capable defensive center. He doesn’t cover enough ground with his length or instinct to be a capable protector of the rim. It is to the point of embarassing. It is a free pass to the rim when Bagley plays center.

He does not defend with his right hand. He lacks the dexterity. He is not a physical player. He is not wired as a stopper. It is not his source of price, he wants to score.

I do think however he has motivation to try to be a good defender so he gets more playing time to score. He is being motivated to improve his defense so he can get more shots up!

Anyway, setting him up and the team to fail by playing him as a center was a waste (of time and energy).

It would not be a waste if you thought he possessed the ability to fill that role as a center but a better coach would have known better and not wasted time with an experiment doomed to fail.

I would love to say Bagley can be a defensive center. Because the position you can guard is the postion you can play. And the more positions you can defend the more versatile and valuable you are.

Bagley is a PF, maybe a combo F. Every star in the league can guard multiple positions. So if Bagley is to be a star, maybe he can come to guard to some SFs. That is more possible than guarding centers. The optimal template for Bagley IMHO is Siakum and Giannis. That’s the player he should aspire to be. And both these guys, great players, are wings, not centers.

TheEffortPolice
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February 4, 2021 3:05 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

He was a prized draft pick under Vlade.

McNair could very well have a different value of him, especially when you consider where he came from and who he studied under.

rockbottom
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February 4, 2021 9:23 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Like Ben McLemore ? Yes it can and often is wasted unless earned !

Amonk81
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February 4, 2021 11:18 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Prized by who? Vlade? Vivek?

BBIQ4U
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February 5, 2021 12:30 am
Reply to  andy_sims

He’s not a prized draft pick he’s a bust.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 1:07 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

they’ve only played together in a handful of minutes this season. So far the results aren’t pretty. They’ve been outscored by 30 points in 20 minutes (33-63)

Adamsite
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February 4, 2021 1:16 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Yikes!

GFunkClassic
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February 4, 2021 1:30 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I do realize I asked for “some data”….I’d still say that scope is still not enough to make cemented judgments on. There’ve been 5065 minutes played by the Kings thus far. So those 20 minutes represent .03% of total minutes played. Where did you find the lineup data though, if you don’t mind my asking? Would like to browse that kind of info myself.

RORDOG
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February 4, 2021 1:40 pm
Reply to  GFunkClassic

I’m not sure if the math checks out on that one. If there’s 5 players on the floor together for 20 minutes, then that’s 100 player minutes. Also, as I said, those are just the stats so far. 20 minutes isn’t nearly enough to be predictive of