Marvin Bagley scored 7 of the Kings first 10 points against the Celtics on Wednesday. It was another hot start for the Kings third year big man, and yet Bagley finished the game with just 9 points in 19 minutes of action. Marvin checked out with 7:15 minutes left in the third quarter and never re-entered the game.
This has been a pattern this season. Bagley starts every game, has a few bright moments early, and then is mostly missing for the second half of play. So why won’t Luke Walton play Marvin Bagley in key moments?
It’s not hard to figure out if we look at who Walton is playing in those crunch time minutes.
Harrison Barnes, who we noted is playing the best basketball of his career, plays the power forward position in the Kings standard closing lineup. Walton has consistently gone with a closing five of De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Richaun Holmes.
Bagley’s minutes are limited because Walton doesn’t play Bagley at center, and because Barnes is the better option at the power forward spot.
But there’s another reason too, and that’s defense. Bagley isn’t alone on the Kings in being an atrocious defender. Bagley, Cory Joseph, Glenn Robinson III, and Chimezie Metu are all among the league’s worst players in defensive rating. And that’s why none of those players are receiving heavy minutes in the second half of games.
For comparison, the closing lineup of Fox, Haliburton, Hield, Barnes, and Holmes has a net rating for the season of +23.5. If you replace Hield with Bagley (for a Fox, Hali, Barnes, Bagley, Holmes lineup), the net rating is -1.6.
So the next time Bagley gets off to a hot start only to disappear in the second half, you don’t need to wonder why. It’s because of defense, and because the small ball lineup with Barnes is far more effective.
Last night he had a beautiful play going coast to coast, almost ended up in a possible three point play. He missed both FTs, it was a sad outcome. At least he hasn’t been stripped so much.
Surprised we didn’t a Team Bagley tweet after he he didn’t come back in the game.
The Kings only have 6 decent players. Right now Buddy is 5 and MB3 is 6. The only time Bags will be in at crunch time will be if we need the rebounding.
I do think Marvin should be up closer to 28 mpg which can easily be accomplished in the first 40 minutes of the game.
Because defense doesn’t matter in the first halves of games?
No because you can’t play 5 guys 48 minutes so it seemed logical to me that the 6th best player would get the most minutes compared to the rest of the bench. Also, I don’t see a lot of players on the bench who are accustomed to playing D.
Bagley shld be getting those closing minutes over Buddy!
IMO, it depends on how well each of them is playing in a game.
Except the numbers show that the closing lineup with Bagley instead of Buddy is far worse. That’s literally in the article.
Bingo.
Nah bro. You’re trippin.
You get a STAMP for that. Before you answer….DENIED.
With his poor D and FT% hanging around 50%, there is no way Bagley should be in there in crunch time.
I kind of assumed that he was pulled initially because he picked up a couple of early fouls, and found himself locked onto the bench for most of the first half. The Kings were playing well in the second half, so there wasn’t a great need to get Bagley back in.
At some point, Lose Walton is going to need to let Marvin play those crunch-time minutes, because it is key to his development. Lose Walton is still trying to win games, and not perform his main function: Providing growth opportunities for the young guys.
And that is the problem. What is McNair’s end game here? He has the authority to tell Walton to play Bagley in crunch time and go with a youth movement, but I’m not seeing it…and this has me very worried.
Walton is attempting to win games and that means limiting Bagley. To be clear, I’m am NOT for attempting to make the playoffs. If there were a tank bandwagon, I’m already on board. The truth is, the Kings are not making the playoffs and once again looking like a late lottery team stuck in purgatory. This year’s draft is just too good to be on the outside looking in. As much as Fox and Hali are the future, they are going to need another legit star to become relevant in the West.
These wins have been nice, but we need a reality check. Not one of them came against a healthy opponent. All those teams were missing key starters and players due to injury/protocols. I would have given the Kings a near zero chance of winning that game last night had the C’s had Walker and Smart. The Kings have been very lucky to stay this healthy, but I feel it has lead to an inflated perception as to how good they are.
I have heard comments like that a few times:
I have my doubts. GM constructs the roster, the coach is in charge of line-ups, substitutions and playing time.
I am sure in most relationships there is back and forth and people make suggestions and listen to each other, but ultimately a GM should not dictate who plays when. And I think if McNair is forcing such stuff upon the coaching staff, it would be known around the league and would scare off potential coaching candidates.
I could be wrong, of course. This would be a nice topic to discuss with Jerry on the podcast.
Right, and Luke is coaching for his coaching future. Put yourself in his shoes: The team only has him guaranteed thru next season. If they want him to develop certain guys for certain minutes, he should ask for a longer guaranteed contract. If they won’t, than he needs to focus on wins and losses only, in order to better set himself up for the future.
I remember reading something about how he and Morey dictated to D’Antoni in how best to use both Westbrook and Paul with Harden. They brought the data on when and how to play them together.
If McNair is indeed and analytics guy, it is not passed him to see the obvious that Bagley should be sitting in crunch time if you want to win games. Could it be Walton’s realization? Maybe, but I’ve not seen anything in Walton’s past to tells me he knows his ass from a tea kettle when it comes to rotations. Hell, he is still giving Joseph way too many minutes.
As you mentioned, we don’t know what McNair’s expectations are for this team. Maybe he believes they’re striking the right balance by letting Bagley start and Halliburton finish. He voluntarily sent Woodard and Ramsey to the G-League, so it’s not like he’s pushing for a complete youth movement in Sac. Also, the Rockets basically never tanked when he was in their front office.
Maybe he just believes that it’s important to build a winning culture, and is confident he can improve the roster without a high draft pick. I don’t know if he actually thinks this way, but it’s at least worth considering.
This all could be true, but the difference in Houston is they were a perennial contender with an MVP superstar, if not two. The Kings are and have neither.
It is true that Houston never drafted any of their stars, but I don’t think that is the right approach for Sac.
Yeah I mean we all have our opinion about how to best build this team. But ultimately, all we can really do is judge McNair on his actual job performance.
a fun thought experiment is how can McNair improve this roster if the goal is to make a push for the playoffs while still building for the future?
I don’t think you can.
He could probably leverage the future to make a playoff push, but that would be a horrible decision.
I don’t know about that. who would’ve thought Kent Bazemore was going to play as well as he did when he got here. Same thing with Alex Len. There’s plenty of cheap ways to improve your team in the short run.
Did those guys add wins though?
I think so. Sometimes just replacing a bad players with league average players is enough add a few wins.
I think from McNair’s perspective there’s not much he can do. Sure Barnes probably has some solid value right now, but what message does it send to the guys in the locker room if he ships him out to say Boston for Langford and a pick? I think he’s going to let this play itself out- if at the deadline this team looks like it’ll legitimately compete for a playoff spot I think he lets them ride it out, with maybe some slight tweaks (Joseph, Bjelica, MAYBE Buddy) and then look to make some tweaks in the off-season. If they flame out he probably looks to ship both Barnes and Hield by the deadline.
Houston got Harden for Peanuts, the McHale days weren’t pretty. I could agree that a winning culture, a place you want to be… or at least stay is critical. Otherwise any and all homegrown talent ends up walking out, or getting overpaid. Dumping DMC was the beginning of the reset IMHO. Point being you aren’t going to get a legit star to come here and help, even by trade with a revolving door of personnel. I don’t mind winning now.
Peanuts? They got a prime Kevin Martin, a rookie Jeremy Lamb, two future #1 and a 2nd for a RFA in Harden who finished a 16, 3, 4 season.
Sure, looking back it was a big win for Houston, but at the time the Rockets gave up their leading scorer in Martin, a rookie, and future assets for OKC’s 6th man.
This is a generous take Adam. It was about money. Presti just found a way to make it work.
True, OKC could not afford Harden, but to say it was peanuts at that time is a bit much, IMO.
LOL “a prime Kevin Martin” If Kmart is your top dog you were going nowhere. Back to my thought though, regardless of value there are going to be salary dump/I want out guys. They will refuse Sac due to culture period, 15 years of losing and disfunction is repulsive. Do what NJ di and build culture. Then you can make a move Trade or (gasp) free agency. Those guys would have gone to Knicks ….except culture.
This is where I am at…would it be great to get a top 4 pick, of course. It’s just not super likely. The Kings are not that bad…even going sub optimal line ups like Bagley in the 4th more, I don’t see how this team gets below 7th/8th pick range, without major injuries. That doesn’t give them a great shot of moving up to the top 3 or 4, where the franchise changing talent frequently resides.
If you look at the drafts over the last ten years there is almost no difference between picking 5-9 and 10-14. Each range has about the same number of All Stars and basically are even on which range gets the most win shares vs the other range in their draft.
I think I might feel better about this team going forward if they got in play in tourney or just missed out versus “bottoming out” to 7/8 slot. That would mean they showed some continued development in Fox/Haliburton and moving in the right direction. New coach comes in next year and who knows. I just don’t see a huge difference in drafting 13th versus 7th and historically the draft shows that it doesn’t matter really.
First, this draft is different, IMO. There are perennial all-stars in the top 5. This is looking like the best draft class since Lebron.
Second, the Kings could be that bad if they moved Buddy and Barnes for nickels on the dollar for future assets. Don’t go for equal value. Move those guys and give minutes to the likes of Ramsey and Woodard and see what you have going forward. Let Walton do what he does and evaluate. Pick your coach for the future this summer.
Third, target that op 5 lottery position this year and the next year as well. Plan for the playoffs as a serious team in 2023 when the Lebrons, Currys and Leonards are aged out in the West.
This is THE question for this season, wins or development?
We saw what development, ala Bagley playing more, looks like when Whiteside was DNP/injured. Ugly losses….
Whiteside playing minutes means they are going for wins right now.
Whether that is the right game plan I don’t know.
Bagley can’t play in the 4th of a close game at this point. Even after showing some small improvement in defense recently, he is on the wrong side of average. He still way too often looks lost out there. Plus, also recently his FTs have been awful…2 for 15 in the last 7 games. YIKES!
I think the end game is simple and we only make it complex. I agree, Monte does need to make some moves. Specifically Bjelly, Parker, James, CoJo…just to name a few. I actually think we could use Parker right now. We’re balling though. I have to believe Monte is watching though, with a plan. Maybe the plan was always to win games. A couple of good moves honestly puts us closer to the 7th seed than the 8th. Look at the league. LOOK AT IT. Everyone is getting their asses kicked. Brooklyn has 2.5 hall of famers on their team. Granted they’ve played better lately, but what are they like 13-9 or something mediocre.
Yo. We are legit 6 games out of 1st place and playing some very fun and competitive games. We think we’re supposed to win now. If you don’t like that, you don’t like Kings basketball. Deadass.
With that being said, send Bagley to Chicago for Markkanen.
You get a STAMP too, and a pre-DENIED for right, logical, or rational responses.
GO KINGS
Lol, the STAMP thing is definitely your schtick, and I like it. Again, like I said, I think these wins have been a bit of fools gold. If the Kings can consistently beat healthy opponents the team will get my praise. I feel the next 3 games against Denver, the Clips and the 76ers are going to be the indicator of the reality of things…that is if those teams play their key players.
Agreed. STAMP rescinded. ð¤
Since MB3’s improving w/the current approach, I can understand the current approach (though I’d like to see MB3 in the closing lineup if he’s outplaying Buddy). I’ll definitely be worried if MB3 continues to improve & the approach doesn’t change by early next season at the latest.
Well put.
Agree. The future is Fox, Hali, MBIII. Hope Monte make right moves with HB and Buddy trade. I see good things in a few years
You have to keep Barnes. Otherwise the culture goes to shyt. Barnes is our Corliss the steady pro is required.
An overpaid mouthpiece isn’t necessary as the culture vet. Heck Iman Shump was available until recently getting picked up. Plenty of cheap vets available that the young players can look up to and learn from.
Funny Grant N would mention overpaid mouthpiece. Culture is from the rotation guys and the bench guys. Why would they look up to a bench warmer vs a guy with 2 finals appearances, a ring, and got let go into a maxish deal, to make room for a top 2 NBA player. If Barnes goes I would be surprised. That declining deal, and the likelihood that Bags is dealt to bring in a consistent difference maker. are additional reasons to keep him on. To dump him for PT or salary freedom would go the wrng way IMHO.
Fox (23), MBIII (21), Hali (20). How will these 3 look in their prime in 4-5 years as contenders? I hope Monte figures out the missing pieces to get us there.
i think, if McNair is smart he’s gonna jettison Bagely. Bags is not a player for the modern game. Never will be. Teams don’t need a big who can’t really defend and doesn’t really defensive rebound.
Yup, it ain’t rocket surgery. The Kings are better with the small lineup and Bagley on the bench. Until Bagley can become a plus defender, hell, even an average defender, he is going to find himself sitting in crunch time.
Truth be told, I don’t ever see Bagley become a solid defender. His instincts, positioning, and foot work just aren’t there. There is a reason Coach K utilized a zone when Bagley was defending. He had to hide him within the team defense.
If Tristan Thompson can force you to the bench, you have some serious work to do.
But it’s OK when Tristan schools Holmes? Holmes had a terrible game outside of that awesome block. Not only were a healthy majority of Tristan’s, Williams, and Theis’ points scored on him, He was also thoroughly outrebounded and provides little to no offense.
I look to the trend, not the exception. Bagley currently sits at -7.2 NETRTG while Holmes is at career best 3.1.
Yet according to defensive rating Bagley only gives up 2 more pts per 100 possessions than Holmes despite not being able to play through slumps like Holmes is afforded. And Bagley gives up less points per 100 than the other players that end the game: Barnes, Fox, Halliburton, and Buddy.
I think that is because they are often on the floor together. Holmes almost always takes the tougher defensive assignment. Also, as a team defender, he covers or tries to cover for Bagley’s (and Buddy’s) defensive lapses.
True!
Holmes ORTg is 30 points per 100 possessions higher:
Holmes 132-115 (+17)
Bagley 102-117 (-15)
So there is a little 32 point net discrepancy there, i.e. difference between a major winner and loser.
Holmes takes only good shots, within his limitations, he leads NBA in FG% or close to it. Bagley has machinations on being a 25 PPG.
If you are contending Holmes and Bagley should be given equal regard to playing time and playing through mistakes the stats you cite refute that emphatically.
Bagley wants to win in the context of being a Top 10 scorer. He wants to follow in footsteps of Fox and get that max contract. Holmes does not have that mindset. Bagleys selfish offense can hurt the team on both ends in a similar way that Holmes selfless offense helps the team on both ends.
Even if you are right, that Holmes defense has slipped, maybe it has, he’s still way more valuable and effective than Bagley. He also guards the toughest frontcourt match-up, most recently checking Zion while Bagley was assigned to the cupcake center filling in for Adams.
So Holmes is a better offensive player now too? LMAO.. ok. The matchups change game to game. Bagley also covered Randle while Holmes got the cupcake assignment on Robinson.
uh there’s probably more appropriate words you can use to describe Randle’s performance against Bagley.
Yikes. Can’t believe they allow that verbage on here. Randle is one of the best PF’s in the game. Tristan Thompson, Thies, and Williams III are not. Holmes got worked over by journeymen. You don’t want to like Bagley nor have you played a minute of competitive basketball in your life…that much is clear.
Actually Barnes guarded Randle down in crunch time for the win ! Randle was abusing Bagley !
I’m not a Bagley hater like a lot of guys, and I’ve liked the improvement from him recently, but yeah, Holmes is on another level compared to Bags on D. On one of the King’s Pulse podcasts they talked about the defensive rating of Holmes vs Bagley when they weren’t on the floor together and it was staggering. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but basically Bagley on the floor without Holmes = horrendous defense.
I’m not saying that Holmes isn’t a better defender. That IS his strength. But he does have bad games, and I don’t think he’s that good of a player that you don’t even consider sitting him, when he is playing bad.
Now that is a valid point. I was actually disappointed Bagley got glued to the bench like he did after a strong showing early on. And I understand that this is the point of the article, but I guess I’m with you that I wish he’d gotten a chance to see what he can do. King’s Pulse podcast that dropped after the Celtics game talks about this issue. Also, the comments from another user on here about Bagley’s selfish offensive style are a bit outdated. He’s been playing within the flow of the offense, he’s not a black hole like he used to be, and he does at least try on defense, even though he’s still a far cry from an even average defender. Here’s hoping he can put it together and at least become a solid starter/ 2 way player.
Completely agree (instincts, positioning, and foot work just aren’t there) and have been saying it for a while. He has a hill to climb to just be average.
BUT, he can and should improve since he is so young. First, get him to be an OK team defender that is mostly effort and smarts (Haliburton!). He can work on footwork etc, in the offseason.
I don’t think so. It’s difficult to learn defensive movement, boxing out etc. Look at Buddy. How much better has he gotten at D? A tad, maybe. Or ball handling? But at least Buddy is elite at something.
Thinking Bagley is gonna turn into a real core piece is flawed, in my option. At best he’s a bench/barley starter.
Exactly. Bags should not be in the future plans for the Kings.
I understand the reason for ENDING the game with that lineup. Still doesn’t make sense to give Bagley ZERO fourth quarter minutes. He’s been playing better on both ends of the court and deserves to get a taste of the 4th when he’s playing well.
Walton is playing for wins. The team has been winning lately with MB3 on the bench in the 4th.
They’ve still lost more games than they’ve won. This has been the trend throughout the whole season, not just during this recent stretch of good play. Even playing for wins he can get minutes early in the quarter while you end with the preferable small ball lineup.
Not in a close game. He is clueless on the defensive end, especially as a team defender. Plus, his FTs have been awful recently.
As ugly as Whiteside’s offensive game is if the Kings are trying to win now Whiteside should be getting some of Bagley’s minutes. He simply does not allow as many easy baskets.
When Whiteside plays more than 12 minutes the Kings are 7-2.
When he DNPs or plays less than 12 minutes the Kings are 3-9.
Agree with the FT assessment, disagree with the “clueless on the defensive end” assessment. He’s shown great strides in correcting the little things: He’s galloping less. Staying low and engaged, crossing those feet up less. Also keeping a head on a swivel in regards to defensive positioning in relation to ball and man. If he was truly clueless he wouldn’t be showing improvement in these areas. Also his defensive rating isn’t as bad as you’d think. Taking the top 8 players in total minutes played, only Holmes gives up less points per 100 possessions than Bagley.
I’m not understanding you logic here. Are you trying to say Bagley is the second best team defender because of that one stat?
I’m not understanding your logic in failing to understand my logic. I’m not saying that he’s the second best defender. I’m saying he’s shown strides in growth on the defensive side of the ball and that there’s no reason to ban him from 4th quarter minutes. Not even saying he needs to finish the games, but just never playing him in the quarter is absurd.
But… his benching in the 4th has coincided with the Kings winning 4 out of their las 5.
In the last 4 games where Marvin hasn’t played in the 4th, the Kings are a +23.
I said it somewhere else but I’ll say it again….Not playing Bagley in the 4th has pretty much been going on the whole season and we still have more losses than wins. I enjoy the winning. I’m just not sure that playing Bagley early in the 4th would equate to us losing the games that we won.
Remember that string of games where the Kings put up historically bad defensive numbers? Marvin got significant 4th quarter minutes then.
Case in point, in the Clipper game where the Kings lost by 38, Marvin played the entire 4th and the Kings still lost the quarter by 9. As for the Clippers…PG13 was the only starter to get minutes…and it was just 3.
Sure it was garbage time, but him getting all of those minutes while the rest of the starters rested is all you need to know.
That’s one game and game was already over by the time the 4th started. I don’t recall Bagley getting ” significant ” 4th quarter minutes in any other game. That ” historical stretch ” was also against 9 of the top 10 offensive teams in the NBA and it’s not even remotely reasonable to pin that stretch on Bagley.
I feel like people are wearing Kings glasses when it comes to Bagley. He’s not playing at the end or whole 4th because he’s not very good. Maybe people think he will become good….i don’t, but he’s playing the minutes he’s earned/hasn’t earned.
Said this before, but if Kings fans saw Bagley in another team no way you’d want him.
He is improving but still WAY below average. His recent improvement is encouraging but he is still often out of position and looks like he is on skates. He needs to be in the weight room too, he gets pushed around way too easily.
I think it comes down to trust, Walton simply does not trust him with the game on the line.
I’ve also noticed a trend, but can’t find any hard stats to back it up:
When teams begin to target Bagley, specifically in the PnR and isolate him on the perimeter, where he inevitably gets burned, Walton then switches to a zone to hide Bagley on following possessions.
This appears to make Bagley look like he is improving on defense, but in reality the Kings are just hiding his weakness.
Is there a stat somewhere that shows how often the Kings switch to a zone and how often Bagley is apart of that switch?
Prior to the road trip I read an article that said that we lead the NBA in off ball switches, and that could be a contributor to our historically poor start, because it was too easy for other teams to exploit the matchups they wanted. I would like to know where that kind of info could be had as well…maybe it’s only for the advanced insiders?
Coach K played zone mostly due to Bagley and terrible D !
Yeah I’d disagree that he’s WAY below average. I do agree that he needs to get stronger, and I think his game will improve exponentially as he does. He has a light frame and he’s 21, it takes some time, for post guys with his kind of frame to find their strength in the NBA.
If Marvin is fine with not closing (or at least understands why he isn’t out there), I say roll with it. If he can play and be effective for 30 of the first 36 minutes that would allow a lot of rest to be distributed to the closing group
Really, we should let Marvin’s feelings dictate who plays during crunch time?
Next thing you tell me we should ask his dad too.
Because making personnel decisions that seem random and capricious is terrible management? If there are concrete reasons (there are!) why a young player who is playing decently and has a lot of investment from the team isn’t closing out games that needs to be clearly communicated to and understood by everyone involved.
If Marvin has an issue with it and is harboring resentment then he should be traded. I’m not suggesting he should close games if that isn’t the right lineup, I am suggesting that good management practices should apply.
Thanks for the clarification, because your original post did not cover that.
This I agree with.
I’m fine w/MB3 not playing in the closing lineup if he isn’t playing better than Buddy, but I’d like to at least have him play more minutes prior to closing time.
The issue seems to be that Fox, Hield, Haliburton and Barnes are four to have on the floor for closing out games. Holmes is a better fit with that group than Bagley, especially defensively.
I think Fox, Hali, Barnes & Holmes are players who need to be in the closing lineup, but whether Buddy or MB3 should be the 5th closer depends on who’s playing better. Additionally, MB3 should play more in the 2nd half prior to closing time.
I would make the decision less on who’s playing better and more on matchups, but I see your point.
Wouldn’t you at least have to have some data on a Fox, Hield, Haliburnton, Barnes, Bagley lineup to make the assertion of a “better fit”? I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that lineup, even when Holmes is struggling.
I’m pretty sure that I saw that lineup at least a few times earlier this season.
I think that you can reasonably assess the strengths and weaknesses of Holmes and Bagley and make a determination. I see Holmes as much more effective on the defensive interior. Your mileage may vary.
Every time Bagley has been asked to play defensive center, it has been a total disaster. I guess you didn’t notice and apparently our coach didn’t notice either because he wasted about 5 games trying Bagley there, when anyone with a better grasp on his roster would have known better. This “experiment” coincided with our record faling off and Whiteside DNP-CDs. Takeaway: Our coach is a slow learner.
When you’re giving a prized draft pick valuable experience, win or lose, those games aren’t “wasted.”
It was evident before the season Bagley was not a capable defensive center. He doesn’t cover enough ground with his length or instinct to be a capable protector of the rim. It is to the point of embarassing. It is a free pass to the rim when Bagley plays center.
He does not defend with his right hand. He lacks the dexterity. He is not a physical player. He is not wired as a stopper. It is not his source of price, he wants to score.
I do think however he has motivation to try to be a good defender so he gets more playing time to score. He is being motivated to improve his defense so he can get more shots up!
Anyway, setting him up and the team to fail by playing him as a center was a waste (of time and energy).
It would not be a waste if you thought he possessed the ability to fill that role as a center but a better coach would have known better and not wasted time with an experiment doomed to fail.
I would love to say Bagley can be a defensive center. Because the position you can guard is the postion you can play. And the more positions you can defend the more versatile and valuable you are.
Bagley is a PF, maybe a combo F. Every star in the league can guard multiple positions. So if Bagley is to be a star, maybe he can come to guard to some SFs. That is more possible than guarding centers. The optimal template for Bagley IMHO is Siakum and Giannis. That’s the player he should aspire to be. And both these guys, great players, are wings, not centers.
He was a prized draft pick under Vlade.
McNair could very well have a different value of him, especially when you consider where he came from and who he studied under.
Like Ben McLemore ? Yes it can and often is wasted unless earned !
Prized by who? Vlade? Vivek?
He’s not a prized draft pick he’s a bust.
they’ve only played together in a handful of minutes this season. So far the results aren’t pretty. They’ve been outscored by 30 points in 20 minutes (33-63)
Yikes!
I do realize I asked for “some data”….I’d still say that scope is still not enough to make cemented judgments on. There’ve been 5065 minutes played by the Kings thus far. So those 20 minutes represent .03% of total minutes played. Where did you find the lineup data though, if you don’t mind my asking? Would like to browse that kind of info myself.
I’m not sure if the math checks out on that one. If there’s 5 players on the floor together for 20 minutes, then that’s 100 player minutes. Also, as I said, those are just the stats so far. 20 minutes isn’t nearly enough to be predictive of future performance.
Here’s the Kings lineup data. You can sort by using the advance filter -> custom filter -> Lineup = -> then enter the player’s last name. You can also compare certain Kings lineups to other lineups by going to the team stats section. You can see how well lineups have performed w/ and w/o certain players by using the impact page.
Yeah, you’re right on the total minutes played. Doesn’t really change my opinion on the matter however.
Edit: 0.39% of the seasons minutes played.
I still believe he should get at least a few min the 4th. He won’t get much better if he isn’t playing at a time when the opposing team would be giving us their best shot, because it’s the last quarter of the game.
As an aside, Bagley has done a lot to restore my faith in his potential. His new role gives him a direction. His defense is improving slowly but surely. He needs to think defense first from now on. He doesn’t need to be the man on offense. Fox, Hali, and now Barnes will get him quality looks.
Totally agree! I think this is residual effects of the AAU environment. Pros learning their role, strengths and weaknesses is very underrated in determining their long term success. Not everyone can be the man.
No debate that Bagley should not close games. I think that he’s been deserving the early minutes of 4th quarters, but look how the games have been developing themselves. You are streaking, but we are not blowing out anybody. I think there is a fear that games turn out of hand with two minutes of bad defense. It almost happened against the Celtics
I honestly don’t get the Marvin is playing better takes. He gets *some* of those sloppy put backs that any backup center would get, still has terrible moves in traffic and out in the open, can bang down a few threes if he stands around long enough, plays terrible D, and can’t make free throws.
Yes, he makes put backs, but the eye test (I’ve watched every game) is seeing the same old thing, which is just another guy. I would expect someone to go 4 for 6 on slop rebounds in the paint.
I think its moreso his current role as of late. He is stretching the floor more than sitting on the block. He is still sloppy, but he isn’t absolutely sucking the wind out of the offense and deflating the basketball. On defense I think after Doug gave a really good breakdown on what he needed to do better a few games back, it made fans key in to those areas when watching him. He is starting to slowly clean up those bad habits and he is making more “BBIQ” plays when he is overwhelmed by drawing more charges.
LOL, I dont agree but your take is mildly amusing. Bagley has improved his defense. He is not getting olbiterated quite so much lately. If you have seen every game then you know he got destroyed by Juslius Randle. Holy smokes, dude needed a physical check-up after that assault.
But since then there has been less embarassing moments and more awarness of where to be and providing moderate to good challenge on opponents. I see incremental progress, and believe I would rip the guy if I felt deserved!
As I said in the other thread, Bagley getting crunch minutes is prohibitive bc (1) he failed spectacularly as a defensive center (2) Barnes is better at guarding PFs and initiating offense from the perimeter and most importantly (3) Fox is our CLOSER and we want the paint open for him to do his thing and Barnes is the preferred option over Bagley to enable that.
If Bagley wants crunch minutes, he has to be substantially better than Buddy in the first 3 quarters, then we roll with a closing lineup of Ty – Fox – Barnes – Bagley – Holmes with Marvin earning those minutes over Buddy.
We sacrifice the spacing for our CLOSER to a degree bc Marvin is substantially better than Buddy. Marvin has to not only be very very good, Buddy has to be comparatively woeful to justify making the job more difficult for our superstar.
Defensively the instincts, positioning, and foot work just aren’t there. He has a hill to climb to just be average.
BUT, he can and should improve since he is so young. First, get him to be an OK team defender that is mostly effort and smarts (Haliburton!). He can work on footwork etc, in the offseason.
Until then, he can’t be on the floor in the 4th of a close game. His defense is just too suspect and recently his FTs (2 for 15 in the last 7 games).
Also, get him in the weight room ASAP, so we can keep Randle out of jail for assault. That was hard to watch.
His body needs work, flabby muscles, huge disappointment that I noted in the preason. But I do see him getting better on defense. His defensive instincts are poor, which is why he will never get a lot of steals or blocks, but his positioning and footwork have improved.
But you are right another good reason he cannot play in the 4th unless he has a spectacular overall game going: he cannot be trusted from the FT line.
Team Bagley has NO valid argument to play Marvin at C over Holmes or Whiteside and NO valid argument to play Marvin at PG over Barnes in most circumstances. The only valid argument they have is if Marvin is playing so well and Buddy is chucking and ineffective.
Then Marvin can play in the stretch if the discrepancy in play between Marvin and Buddy is enough to justify the reduced spacing for Fox.
*** play Marvin at PF over Barnes….
So we’ve arrived once again at He needs quicker feet and to alter his body.
My hoping for transformation levels have been exhausted.
Agreed. I look at Giannis who came into the league as a skinny kid who clearly need to get stronger and pick up on the nuances of the game. By the end of his 3rd season at age 21, he was noticeably bigger, smarter, was a budding all-star, and was about to sign a fat extension.
Bagley, other hand, has shown very little growth in body or game. He may not even be worthy of his QO by the end of the season.
This is how feel. He needs to learn how to play defense and it starts with sliding his feet. Then strength in both his upper and lower body. I like what I have seen this season and he has now played in his most consecutive games ever at 21.
Yesterday he flopped and two games ago, he was trying to force feed Whiteside. He used to never pass!
You might say “he’s in the league!?” .. I have enjoyed the baby steps, Marvin, I see you!
Most of the league has been getting destroyed by Julius Randle. As he drags that Knicks team above .500, he’s been consistently dominating bigs.
I remember his NCAA tournament where he was an absolute wrecking ball against elite players, and thinking, he’s too small to impose his will on bigger PFs and enters, but I was way off. He’s turned himself into an All-Star caliber player.
I agree but the competitive imbalance there was drastic, to the point we had to switch Barnes onto Randle, and Bagley needed to find a seat. And what Bagley lacked in strength he could have or should have tried to make up with agility and quickness. It was men against boys, Randle vs Bagley, legit baller vs wannabe.
Bagley did have a block and he drew a charge, but it was partly because he was identified as an easy mark, someone to go out full force. Randle was drooling at the prospects of attacking Bagley to the point of yelling after an and-one “he can’t f*cking guard me!!!” ….
Yeah we know!!!
I just dont know how you put a positive spin on this, unless Bagley uses it as a humbling and motivativing experience. But lets not pretend Randle was extra pumped to go against a pansy-like player he knew had little to no chance against him. If Bagley was the player we want or hope or expect him to be, he would have turned it into more of an equitable fight.
Talent doesn’t hide, especially when provoked so overtly.
“pansy-like player”
Well, in the technical sense he is playing better.
And by that, I mean he went from “bottom 5 player in the league” to “moderate to major net negative”.
Yea Effort I suppose you’re right. In the end I see the Kings as wasting their time.
Yes. Bags is shooting the corner 3 better and playing his role on O more but there is very little to no improvement in his defensive rebounding, defense, free throws and screens.
The starting lineup, which substitutes Bagley for Haliberton, is around +10. Not say that Bags should be closing games, but we have very effective lineups that include him. I get why he’s not playing in crunch time, but if he’s good enough to play in the first half, he’s good enough to play in the 3rd and early 4th quarters
Exactly right. For a team that’s overall -5.3 we need to be getting every minute we possibly can from lineups that are significant positives.
On nights when Marvin is playing decent, he should play the first 4-5 minutes of the fourth. I don’t think I’d want him in during crunch time but to start the fourth, sure.
Marvin Bagley has been a below-average player and is starting to approach average. Four of the players who are getting 4th-quarter minutes ahead of him (Fox, Hield, Barnes, Haliburton) are playing consistently above-average, and the fifth (Holmes) fills a need with the other 4 that Bagley does not. As a general rule, average players can’t complain about not playing in crunch time, especially if the guys playing ahead of them are winning.
That about sums it up.
Bad defensive and high-usage bigs these days are always going to have their minutes limited. I don’t know what is so perplexing about it.
Every coach in the league would’ve gone small with the best available big option being the biggest physical and defensive presence. This was always going to happen.
And before people consider this is against McNair’s vision, this might actually be a part of his plan. Consider where he came from and who he studied under.
I understand that Bagley kind of deserves some minutes in 4th quarters (not the closing ones). Just want to remember the circunstances of our wins. Almost all of them were fought posession by posession. Imagine three minutes with Bagley against the Celtics in the 4th quarter, it would be realistic to think that the Kings would have double digits points to recover. Therefore, we would lose, probably.
If the order is to develop players and don’t care about the results, fine. But it appears that FO and coaching are aiming the playoffs
I’d have to disagree. Fox, Buddy, Ty, HB, and Holmes are our best players and should absolutely be closing the game. But there are 12 minutes in the 4th quarter and we very rarely play all 5 of those guys all 12 minutes.
CoJo and Glenn Robinson regularly play in the 4th. Here are their COMBINED stats for last night:
8 minutes
0 points
0 assists
0 steals
0 blocks
1 rebound
1 foul
They were -3 in a quarter we won by 6 points.
A week ago when we played Orlando we were up by 19 entering the 4th quarter. Bagley played 0 minutes, while Robinson played 7 minutes and was 0-2 with 0 points, rebounds, assists, or blocks and 1 steal. Meanwhile, his defensive rating is 124. It’s pure nonsense.
You are saying that Walton lacks coherence and logic? You are right. I understand playing GRIII because the roster has almost no other wing. CoJo should not be playing that much. Kyle Guy (and Bagley, depending on the lineup) are better options.
Exactly. If we need to give GR3 minutes at backup SF because Barnes needs the rest and we don’t have other options, then so be it. But creating time for GR3 and CoJo with small ball lineups that get killed, while also limiting Marvin’s development makes no sense.
I think there’s a case to be made for Bagley to get more minutes, but not necessarily 4th quarter minutes. I wanted him back in over Buddy last night, bc I thought he was having a better game and it could’ve worked matchup wise but hard to blame Walton for running that lineup that’s had some pretty good success lately. Over the last 5 games, Bagley has played some pretty decent ball. He’s not lighting the world on fire but he’s finding ways to contribute and hasn’t been a liability defensively. Obviously he’s made some mistakes but early in the season he pretty consistently would fall asleep or just straight up get burnt- he’s cut that out for the most part, although still does get burned from time to time. He’s gotten better at sliding his feet from the first game of the season to now, and although his lateral foot speed isn’t great he’s actually been showing some decent promise there as of recent and I think the more reps he gets he’ll only continue to get better there. He’s never going to be a guy you stick on a premier scorer but I think he can become a helpful piece on defense. Personally, I think he’s been playing good enough lately to warrant 25+ minutes a night.
Also, I’d argue he disappears in the 2nd half of games because a lot of times he’s getting one 6-7 minute run and he’s done for the rest of the game. If Barnes or Fox or Buddy come out firing to start the 2nd half he doesn’t even get much opportunity to do a whole lot. And there’s nothing wrong with that but I don’t think he’s underperforming in the 2nd half, he’s just not getting a whole lot of opportunities.
And it’s possible the Kings have done a better job at hiding him on defense lately but I still think he’s improved as an on ball defender even though he does still have his short comings in that regard.
TPA through Feb. 4
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=01%2F10%2F2021&DateTo=02%2F05%2F2021&TeamID=1610612758
Here’s a set of stats that only look at the second half of the season from Jan 10-today. This is the last 11 games. It’s cherry picking, but in addition to being half the season, it’s more than 10% of Bagley’s brief career, so not statistically insignificant.
I think what it shows is that Bagley’s full-season numbers are being dragged down by an outlier-horrible first 10 games. Maybe that’s who you think he really is, but I can imagine the rust of coming back from injury, not playing consistently for over a year, having a new role, and not having training camp would be significant.
More importantly, he was miscast as a backup center / lone big for the first half of the season, but Luke seems to have figured that out with Whiteside. In the right role, Marv is a slight negative, which is acceptable for a 21 year old (same for Tyrese). It matches the eye test that Fox, Buddy, Barnes, and Holmes are net positives, Tyrese and Hassan need to improve but are playable, and CoJo / GR3 are absolutely terrible.
Personally, I think playing CoJo / GR3 minutes that could go to Bagley when both players are actively hurting us and aren’t going to be with this team next year is a much bigger mistake than developing Bagley.
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