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Keon Ellis needs to keep shooting

Keon's big night against the Hawks is hopefully just the beginning.
By | 53 Comments | Nov 21, 2024

Nov 1, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Keon Ellis (23) shoots a three pointer against the Atlanta Hawks in the first quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Keon Ellis had a huge night on Monday against the Hawks, scoring a career-high 33 points, including 9-17 from three.  Despite the Kings losing, it was something both Kings fans and those within the organization themselves had been waiting for.  Coach Mike Brown had this to say after the game:

“We’ve been on him about if you’re open, let that thing go, and tonight, he let it go.  He’s a good shooter. He shot 47% from the three when he was in the G league. Last year, he was around 40%, and so we know he could shoot basketball. It was great to see him step into it and let it fly tonight.”

Coming into the season, many of us thought that Keon Ellis would be Sacramento’s starting Shooting Guard.  Ellis had stepped into that role last season following Kevin Huerter’s injury and performed admirably, averaging 8.8 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 46.3% from the field and 40.4% from distance in 21 games as a starter.  Most importantly, he was instantly the team’s best defensive player, and the Kings as a team went from one of the poorest defensive teams in the league to at least average after Keon started getting regular rotation minutes.  He also had a standout performance on the national stage as he tallied 15 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks against the Golden State Warriors in the Play-In Tournament while playing his usual stifling defense.  All signs pointed to Ellis as the future for the Kings at Shooting Guard.

The calculus changed a bit for the Kings when they retained both Kevin Huerter (who was a widely rumored trade piece) and Malik Monk, while also acquiring DeMar DeRozan and drafting Devin Carter.  There was more competition than ever at Shooting Guard for the Kings, but Ellis still made sense, especially with DeRozan moving to Small Forward and Carter sidelined until at least January with a shoulder injury.  A full preseason without Huerter also should have solidified Ellis’ position, but Ellis struggled with his shot in preseason, making just 5-17 from distance over 5 games and often passing up open looks.  By the time preseason ended, Mike Brown declared that Kevin Huerter would start in game 1 despite not playing an actual game since mid-March.  It was a surprising decision, but made sense based on how Keon had been playing.  There was no room for hesitancy in this offense with three creators in the starting lineup.  Huerter at least would not be passing up open looks.

That hesitancy by Keon has carried over throughout the season, and it became very frustrating at times.  Keon’s one of this team’s better shooters, and with guys like Fox, DeRozan, Monk and Sabonis who are all fantastic at generating open looks for others, those looks need to be taken.  It came to a head for me personally in last Friday’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  With the Kings down 2 in overtime and just under a minute left, Trey Lyles found Keon Ellis wide open from three on the wing.  Nickeil Alexander-Walker made a move towards Keon but was off balance and out of position.  Instead of shooting, Ellis faked a pass and took it down the lane only to be greeted by Rudy Gobert who easily blocked the shot.

It’s not guaranteed that Ellis would have made that shot, or even that the Kings would have ended up winning if he did.  But the decision itself was terrible, especially when Ellis is one of this team’s better shooters.

Monday night, there was no hesitation for the first time.  Sure, Ellis was absolutely on fire, making his first six threes in a row, but shooters need to shoot, and Ellis is a shooter.  He’s been steadily above 40% from distance over his entire career to date, both with the team and in the G-League.  And this Kings team desperately needs guys who can make their open looks.  Kevin Huerter leads the team in attempts but is only at 31% for the season so far.  Keegan Murray is at 5.8 attempts but only making 29.9%.   Ellis raised his percentage all the way to 42.6% almost singlehandedly because of that game against Atlanta.  Now, we probably don’t need him shooting 17 threes a game, but he certainly has to be higher than the 3.4 attempts per game he’s attempted so far this season (and that per game number was only at 2.1 before his 17 attempt night).

Keon Ellis made a name for himself with his defense, and that will always be the foundation for his game.  But if he starts to trust himself and take and make those open looks as well, the sky’s the limit for both him and the Kings.  Hopefully Monday’s explosion was less flash in the pan and more of an awakening for Keon to realize just what he can do.

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RobHessing
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November 21, 2024 12:22 pm

Threeon Ellis!

JoeNoSay
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November 21, 2024 11:14 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Threeon = MyJoy

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
November 21, 2024 12:44 pm

Currently Huerter is getting about 7 more MPG than Keon, and is doubling him in FGA, nearly doubling him in 3pt attempts, yet is making just 4 more PPG. Those numbers would indicate that the roles should be reversed. That being said, Huerter does facilitate and rebound much better than Keon.

I’m still of the mindset that with DDR, Fox and Sabonis on the floor, Keon is the better courtmate due to his versatility on defense, but the simple matter is…he needs to shoot more. IMO, it’s really the only thing holding him back for supplanting Huerter in the starting 5 and in MPG.

It’s going to be interesting to see what Brown does with the backcourt minutes once everyone is healthy, including Carter, but maybe by then Monte will have figured out how to balance the roster up a bit.

Greg
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November 21, 2024 12:58 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

If we assume the roster stays the same and everyone is healthy, I’d just expect Carter to only appear in garbage time. I think it’s unrealistic, no matter how high anyone is on him, to expect him to crack a rotation that has Fox, Monk, Huerter, Ellis, and McLaughlin, especially when he had no training camp, no preseason, and missed most of the season. It’s just too many things to overcome. Too much missed learning of the system.

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 1:07 pm
Reply to  Greg

I agree. I don’t see him having much of an impact unless comes out of the gates looking like All NBA Rookie team. Still, Monte is gonna have to do something eventually as all that off guard depth is under contract for next year as well, and we haven’t considered Colby Jones. Just so many off guards.

Last edited 11 days ago by Adamsite
MMalone
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November 21, 2024 1:39 pm
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Colby Jones has been considered and has failed.

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 2:47 pm
Reply to  MMalone

It’s fine to come to that conclusion, but Monte gave him a 3 year deal, and he’s one of the 3 dozen off guards on the team.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 2:50 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Yeah. That is problematic. I honestly think that any one named Jones on this roster should be cut.

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 2:55 pm
Reply to  MMalone

It’s just not that simple. Kings are close to the tax line and cutting only frees up a roster spot (which they already have), but doesn’t lower the cap. It would be better to try and include him in a trade as filler if you want to move on from him.

Jman1949
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November 21, 2024 3:01 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

He actually signed a 4 yr deal, but next season (2024-25) is non-guaranteed and the following season is a team option.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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November 21, 2024 3:10 pm
Reply to  Jman1949

Yeah, I just saw that. I was fine with the signing then, I’m still good with it now. That’s the kind of deal that you can potentially land solid NBA talent on a controlled cheap contract, much like how Keon is currently signed.

The 3rd year non-guaranteed and 4th year TO is a really nice contract structure for the Kings. Nothing to lose if he doesn’t pan out, but everything to gain if he becomes part of the rotation.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 3:31 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Who does Jones bring us in return?

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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November 21, 2024 4:20 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Nothing. He’d just be salary filler to make numbers work.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 4:51 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

All the more reason to make him disappear. Having a bench player that does not play signed to a three or four year deal is dumb.

Last edited 11 days ago by MMalone
MMalone
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November 21, 2024 3:30 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

The need to replace him with a basketball player is that simple. How to resolve the problem is up to Monte. Very few teams end up with a guy like Jones or are perplexed with how to move on from a Jones.

Greg
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November 22, 2024 7:34 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Next year his contract is $2.2 million, with just $1.1 million guaranteed, and a club option the next season. Despite the remaining years, I’d be a bit surprised if Colby is around beyond this season.

Edit: Continued scrolling and saw that this had already been discussed. Carry on.

Last edited 11 days ago by Greg Wissinger
Hobby916
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November 21, 2024 5:34 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Starting Keon might open up some more shots for Keegan in the starting unit to try and get him going. Fox, DDR, and Sabonis is plenty of playmaking in the starting unit.

Monk and Huerter off the bench could work well. They probably take the bulk of the shots, along with Lyles.

OLDBHOY
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November 21, 2024 1:22 pm

I have been a big Keon guy all along. I got to see his ATL 3pt outburst in person, it was amazing.

He does need to take those open 3s without hesitation more often. I do like his fit with the starters because he doesn’t have to score to make a positive impact.

I don’t mind the current situation with Huerter playing better this year but Keon is nipping at his heels. If Huerter slips, Keon should get the nod, basically a short leash for Huerter.

Seems the perfect scenario would be if a bit of Huerter’s shooting confidence could be transplanted to Keon so Huerter reigns it in a bit and Keon does not hesitate.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 1:40 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Having Keon and Huerter battling for a starting spot is the only bright sign on our bench depth.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 1:38 pm

Keon is in the typical year that a young NBA player either figures out how to score in the NBA or does not. He did it once. Hoping he can string together some games like this more often. There is a very obvious correlation to his minutes played and points scored. If he scores he gets more minutes.

Stifling defense is a bit over stated. Kings fans and Mark Jones have declared him to be a stifling defender. Which means he is an average defender in the NBA.

Glad to see him come into a game produce when they needed him to the most. He stepped up.

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 2:47 pm
Reply to  MMalone

What is the typical year that young NA players figure out how to score? He has played a grand total of 87 NBA games. Is it age, years in the league, games played, or what?

I look at a guy like Kyle Lowry, who didn’t top 10 PPG until his 5th year after over 200 games played, but he eventually became an all-star, all-nba and even got DPOY votes in his 9th year. Or Pat Bev, who played overseas for 3 years before making the NBA and eventually getting multiple DPOY votes over many years. He averaged over 10 PPG just 3 times in a 11 year NBA career.

I’m just not sure there is a “typical year.”

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 2:54 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

It is typical for a young NBA player to play very few games in their first one or two years. Most NBA players figure out how to score in the NBA in their second or third year. The first year is rough because they are not used the game and being scouted. Keon in my opinion is figuring out his place in an NBA offense and also suffering from being “figured out” by NBA scouts. Pretty much all he has at this point is a catch and shoot.

All Stars and Pat Bev are not typical NBA guys.

OLDBHOY
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November 21, 2024 3:07 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Going on that premise, what are your thoughts on Keegan?

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 3:11 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

…who has also played in over twice as many games as Keon

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 3:33 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

….and has established himself as a solid NBA player.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 3:33 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Keegan has figured out to score, rebound, and defend. He is in a scoring slump.

My opinion is that Keegan is tired. They have ridden him hard. The scoring for him is necessary for him to be a complete player. On Keegan’s bad night he is still exponentially more valuable than Keon.

OLDBHOY
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November 21, 2024 3:38 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Not sure it’s a slump, I think Keegan is still figuring it out. He has not been able to put it all together yet. When he is given a new responsibility he seems to improve on it quickly but another aspect of his game drops.

I think he will get there but the complete game has avoided him so far.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 4:05 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

Hopefully Keegan has more to figure out. That means he can average 25+ a game. I like that.

Jack
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November 21, 2024 3:14 pm
Reply to  MMalone

IMO Keon is more than an average defender.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 3:35 pm
Reply to  Jack

On the Kings or in the NBA?

How does he compare to Davion?

If he played the minutes Davion is playing now they would put up very similar numbers.

OLDBHOY
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November 21, 2024 4:13 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Right now I would call Keon a slightly above average defender in the NBA. Not a big stats guy but by numbers he is better than Davion. And the highest rated on the Kings in DEF and NET RATING.

Keon: OFF RTG 116.3, DEF RTG 104.0, NET RTG 12.3

Davion: OFF RTG 111.4, DEF RTG 112.1, NET RTG -0.9

I like Davion and he puts out great effort but his height/length is going to limit his ceiling as a defender, the good scorers will always be able to shoot right over him.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 4:50 pm
Reply to  OLDBHOY

I think Davion is at his peak currently. The Kings did not need him at his peak.

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 4:24 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Uhhh, Keon’s advanced numbers are far better than Davion’s, and it’s not close. If you are only looking at PTS, Boards, and Assists, then you are only seeing about 20% of the picture.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 4:57 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

On Pluto when the gaseous core of the planet reaches the proper temperature the cloud moves left and blah….blah….blah….blah….blah…

The advance stats for any player are a fantasy. This has been the story of Keon in these chats for his entire existence. The reality is he has some good moments and many moments of nothing. Same as any second or third year NBA player.

Advance stats make the majority of bench players better than Hall of Fame guys.

Adamsite
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November 21, 2024 5:18 pm
Reply to  MMalone

Uhhh, ok.

It’s been pretty clear since you created this account that you have a bias against Keon. That’s fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Have a nice night.

Hobby916
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November 21, 2024 5:40 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I don’t bother with that person anymore. It just leads to nonsense and arguments for arguments sake.

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 6:53 pm
Reply to  Hobby916

You don’t bother with Keon anymore?

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 6:52 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

What is my bias against Keon?

He is great pick up as an undrafted player and competing for a starting spot. He is the best bench player on this team outside of Monk.

Is it ok to say that you have a bias for Keon being much better than he really is because you love him as a King?

Take away the anomaly of his 33 point game and what are his statistics looking like?

I hope he has many more 33 point games. We need that.

Last edited 11 days ago by MMalone
KangzAteMyFamily
November 22, 2024 11:51 am
Reply to  Adamsite

every comment i see from that dude is hate

Delesandro
November 22, 2024 1:49 pm

The comment basically echoes everything in the article. Where is the hate?

djp5209
November 21, 2024 1:40 pm

If Kevin Huerter just ends up being a poor man’s Dalton Knecht I will riot

UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 21, 2024 5:29 pm
Reply to  djp5209

Keon with 91-17 from 3 against the Hawks! That is a wonderful performance. It is almost as good as Dalton Knecht’s 9-13 from 3 against the Jazz.
Keon’s 47% from 3 in the G-League is outstanding. Keon with 96-227 is 42.3% 3FG% for his career. It is almost as good as Dalton Knecht’s 46.4% (32-69) this season/career.

comment image

MMalone
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November 21, 2024 6:57 pm

G league stats matter in the NBA?

What did Knecht do in the G league?

More importantly Keon just scored 33 in the NBA when his team needed him to. He needs to shoot the ball more to find those games.

Marty
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November 21, 2024 6:26 pm

Excellent article, laser-beaming right to the issue.

Last edited 11 days ago by Marty Marty
Ellis5
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November 21, 2024 11:56 pm

Welcome to the NBA Keon Ellis…. You are legit………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

MMalone
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November 22, 2024 10:50 am
Reply to  Ellis5

Did you see him when he did join the NBA?

He has been good for a while now.

Last edited 10 days ago by MMalone
UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 22, 2024 12:06 am

Shoutout to Kings All-Stars Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox who donated their time and money to those less fortunate and in need.

They represent the team and the city well.

It’s a beautiful thing!

billoddity
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November 22, 2024 9:45 am

He’s a brick factory he needs to play D and get to the paint or defer. That game was an aberration.

MMalone
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November 22, 2024 10:51 am
Reply to  billoddity

The anomaly now stands as his standard here.

Adamsite
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November 22, 2024 11:02 am
Reply to  billoddity

The guy who is 2nd in the rotation in TS% and eFG% is a brick factory? By the numbers, he’s one of the best shooters on the team.

Hence the title and premise of the article.

Delesandro
November 22, 2024 2:36 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Removing the anomaly of his 33 point performance where does he stand?

In 10 events one scores 100 points one time to have an average of 10 points scored. Realistically that person averages zero.

I love that he has put up 33 and that he is finally shooting the ball. Even more important than the points he scored he rose the occasion when his team needed him. That is the mark of a true competitor.

Hope he scores 33 more often but also understanding the anomaly is not likely to hold up. Using skewed statistics is not really ideal.

MMalone
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November 22, 2024 2:40 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

The title is “Keon Ellis needs to keep shooting”. The premise of the article is that if he shoots more he will play more.

The title and the premise of the article is not that he leads the team based on a single amazing night.

Are you biased and using flawed statistics to justify being blinded by the purple reign of Keon’s shots finally falling?

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