In the absence of live basketball I’ve been spending a lot of my free time on the 2020 NBA Draft. That journey led me to our old friend Chad Ford’s new podcast, Chad Ford’s NBA Big Board. Ford doesn’t have the best track record in Sacramento, but I’ve enjoyed a few episodes of his podcast as a passive way to learn more about some of these young prospects.
On Thursday’s episode, Ford and John Hollinger, former Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, performed a re-draft of the 2018 NBA Draft. They were not particularly kind to the Sacramento Kings and their selection of Marvin Bagley with the 2nd overall pick, but I thought it would be an interesting discussion to bring over here.
Here’s how Ford and Hollinger’s 2018 re-draft played out:
1. Luka Doncic (Ford)
2. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Hollinger)
3. Michael Porter Jr. (Ford)
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Hollinger)
5.DeAndre Ayton (Ford)
6. Trae Young (Hollinger)
7. Mitchell Robinson (Ford)
8. Donte DiVincenzo (Hollinger)
9. Marvin Bagley (Ford)
Both analysts agreed that in hindsight the Kings should have selected Jaren Jackson Jr. with the 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft.
Hollinger was the VP of basketball operations for the Grizzlies at the time, and I thought this quote was interesting. All of us behind Sacramento were relieved when they took Bagley 2nd because we knew that we were going to get somebody else. That would move someone else up into us sitting at 4.
After selecting Bagley 9th in the re-draft, Ford said, I still like Marvin Bagley, I just don’t like him as a top-5 sort of savior on your team, but as a third or fourth starter on your team, I think he has some real potential there before asking Hollinger what he didn’t like about Bagley’s game.
Hollinger’s criticisms are nothing you haven’t heard about Bagley before. He is concerned about his ability to defend, and his offensive potential if he never develops an outside shot. He believes Bagley will get points and rebounds with playing time, but questions if those counting numbers will actually produce wins. The basketball cliche empty calories was used.
I don’t necessarily agree with Ford and Hollinger’s re-draft order here, but I thought it was an interesting discussion surrounding a player the Kings had more faith in than just about anyone in the basketball world.
In no particular order, I would argue that all of Luka Doncic, Deandre Ayton, Jaren Jackson, Trae Young, SGA, and Michael Porter Jr. would be selected before Bagley if the draft happened today. You could make a strong case for several other players, too, but I think there is a clear line after the six listed above.
In fairness to Bagley, he didn’t really get an opportunity to defend his draft position this season, but that’s part of the conversation, isn’t it? At some point your ability to play is a factor in your value across the league.
I’m interested to hear what other people think. Where would you take Marvin Bagley in a 2018 re-draft?
Hard to argue with that really. Don’t really know that much about DiVincenzo, and I think they’re a little too high on Porter and low on Young, but I think they’re basically right on Marvin, until he proves them wrong.
He simply hasn’t proven that he can be a consistent starter in this league, let alone star. I just really hope he realizes how much he has to prove, because he doesn’t act like it.
I don’t disagree with them on the redraft but do feel a tinge of sadness in knowing that the Kings can’t ever make the right decision in the draft, even when they have a top 2 pick. It makes building a team a 1000% harder for a small market team.
It’s disappointing that Vivek can’t see what’s so obvious to the rest of us: this front office is incompetent and we have not improved enough to warrant keeping them around.
Here is my butt-pulled lottery redraft:
1. Luka
2. Ayton
3. JJJ
4. Young
5. SGA
6. Devonte Graham
7. Porter
8. Mitchell Robinson
9. Wendell Carter
10. BAGLEY
11. Huerter
12/13. Bridges/Bridges
14. Sexton
FWIW, I think 29 teams take Luka first again if they could. Vlade/Vivek wouldn’t just because.
It’s like we traded down for nothing in return!
I would drop Ayton down to 4 and move JJJ and Young up, but otherwise this looks about right to me.
On a side note, he’s a HUGE injury risk obviously, but holy crap did Porter look special in his time on the court.
Yeah, if he can stay healthy, Denver is going to scary good for quite a few years.
In another redraft 2 yrs from now, I can see Ayton falling and Porter rising significantly.
It’s hard to disagree with Bagley being the ninth pick in a redraft, especially when the guy can’t stay on the court. Of course we really won’t know how to judge the guy for years to come, but what I’ve seen of him in the first two years, I would pick him somewhere in the middle of the first round.
By the time we can “judge the guy” he will be on another team.
Sadly I think this is correct. I think the writing is already on the all in Sacramento and he’ll be on his way out sooner rather than later. Loaded draft and the Kings still messed it up. Absolutely incredible.
Where Would Marvin Bagley Be Selected In A 2018 Re-Draft?
Sacramento.
Can’t really argue with the guys listed 1-6 here, except maybe MPJ. He had some serious injury concerns coming into the draft, so I’m not sure you can hold that one against them. Not sure I’d take DiVencenzo or Mitchell Robinson before Bagley either.
I’m not sure the Kincks would trade Robinson straight up for Bagley right now. Bagley can’t stay on the court and is due to make nearly $20M more over the next 2 years. $20M MORE!
They might. But only because they’re the Knicks. Any non-tire-fire FO would take Robinson over Bagley without thinking twice.
Unfortunately, the tire fire that is the Kings FO probably couldn’t take adv. of the tire fire that is the Knicks FO (& in the case of a Bagley-Robinson trade, it probably wouldn’t want to take adv. of the Knicks FO).
So what you’re saying is that we should try to fleece the Knicks while we still can.
Knowing the Kings FO, the Knicks FO would probably fleece the Kings FO.
I’d definitely take Robinson before Bagley. His defense is more useful than anything Bagley does.
Yeah, He’s a switchable DPOY candidate/elite rim runner in the making. And not the “maybe a few years from now if everything goes right” type of in the making. But a right now he’s already special. It’s a testament to the Knicks unending ineptitude that he isn’t getting 30+ minutes per game.
Then you haven’t watched Robinson. Defensive all NBA type.
Certainly not at 2, and that should be all that matters to Vivek. If that’s not strike 3 for somebody in the front office we’re in worse trouble than we thought and that’s the part I think many of us are frustrated with; the idea that such a colossal whiff (on top of several other bad decisions from draft to coaching hires / fires) is just another day at the office and beyond scrutiny.
All hopes Bagley sorts it out and finds a way to make an impact, tho. He has the physical tools, assuming he’s cleared for contact…
Bagley’s very athletic, but his lack of defense & skills, along w/what seems like an overinflated opinion of himself make me pessimistic about his future.
Who would Grant Napear suggest the Kings pick if there were a re-draft? I’m guessing his answer wouldn’t rhyme with Carvin Zagley, contrary to the praise he has heaped upon him.
You won’t get an honest answer from Grant until Bagley & Vlade are gone.
If Luka is so great, than why are the mavs only a 7 seed?!
Speaking of Peaches, anyone know if he is still up on the air during shelter in?
I would imagine him saying something along the lines of: “The Kings have not lost in 1.5 months. Try to beat that!! Vlade deserves all the credit in the world.”
Yeah, we can talk about Luka again!
LUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKA!!!
Out of my system yet? Nope.
LUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKALUKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
[sobs]
Last I heard he was sleeping with the fishes.
Oh crap.
Thank you.
This is the part that get’s me, All of us behind Sacramento were relieved when they took Bagley 2nd because we knew that we were going to get somebody else.
I’m guessing most of the other FO’s realized that Bagley would have a hard time fitting into the modern NBA.
I mean, most of us said it when he was drafted so I would guess any semi-competent front office would have known that.
Unfortunately, the Kings FO is 1 of the FO’s that isn’t even semi-competent.
Other GM’s at the mixer after the draft: “And can you believe it? He took Bagley at #2. We just watched and our jaws hit the floor!”
https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims3/GLOB/crop/2654×1740+258+0/resize/1028×675!/format/jpg/quality/85/https%3A%2F%2Fs.yimg.com%2Fos%2Fcreatr-uploaded-images%2F2019-12%2F3ec399e0-1681-11ea-b3ed-851928ac2463
Damn, I figured out gifs but not images?
I think it’s gotta have a .jpg, .png, .gif, or whatever at the end of the link to work
What kills me is that is proof they could have traded down. The critique of that draft will always be twofold. The first being we should have taken. Luka or Jackson straight up, but the second is that we could have done the exact trade that ATL and DAL and either picked Bagley or someone better.
“Donte DiVincenzo”
who?
Not to excuse the non Luka pick but Chad Ford has never given the Kings the benefit of the doubt
Why would anyone give the Kings the benefit of the doubt? Teams like the Spurs or Nuggets or Thunder who have drafted well in the past get the benefit of the doubt. When you’ve whiffed as much as the Kings, the actual doubt is well-deserved. Especially if you go against consensus on a pick.
I meant ever, of late I agree the front office deserves the grief they have gotten, but when the Kings were good Ford I suspect as Petrie et al would not leak info would take shots at team
(image fail)
Was supposed to be CameraMarty’s pic of Grant with “Vlade will fix this, trust me!”
But….injuries?!
Butt injuries are the worst!
Is this what people are doing instead of toilet paper these days? Good to know.
It’s a hand-held bidet!
I got your back.
https://postimg.cc/fkzM25XR
https://postimg.cc/Tybnsfzg
I got your back.
What’s the justification for Porter over Bagley other than recency bias?
Health!
1. He was always a better prospect
2. In his time on the floor he has looked, both by stats and by eye test, like a significantly more impactful player than Bagley.
3. The health advantage that moved Bagley above him at draft time has become moot.
If both are healthy (and I’d call health a wash between them at the moment) Porter today is essentially Bagley with more perimeter skills and an elite outside shot. He has all the size (with better length) and athletic gifts of Bagley, with more developed skill.
What’s the justification for Bagley over Porter in a re-draft?
What’s the justification for Bagley over Porter in a re-draft?
…Marvin’s got skillz
I guess I was focused on the health thing. People questioning Bags ability to stay healthy but Porter has averaged 15 mins over 40ish games in 2 years.
Oh, I don’t think anyone is questioning Porter’s high health risk. But he was more healthy more recently, and that matters when it comes to injuries. Both of them are big injury risks at this point. You never want to mess with a back injury like Porter’s, but lower leg injuries like Bagley’s knee and foot issues have a long history of taking down top big men.
Couldn’t agree more BHE.
I think the way he and his camp handled the injury was done very poorly. There was a lot of inaccuracies/deceit flying around. The workout fiasco. The medical records fiasco. I think that just scared a lot of teams off, including the Kings. No doubt he is a very talented young man, and if healthy, probably would have been a top 5 pick or higher.
Only caught Porter a few times on television, but I was struck by how poised he seemed. Felt more like a veteran player than a rookie – not sure why, but that surprised me.
He definitely showed his rookie-ness here and there. Usually on slow rotations and some forced shots. But less than most rookies, I’d say. I’d also swear that he’s 7-feet. He looks TALL out there.
Recency bias + better bias = Porter
Yeah Porter’s 40 games of limited action looked better to me than anything I’ve seen Bagley do on a basketball court.
I haven’t seen him play, but I do remember that he was the 1st reported alternative for the Kings to Luka. For awhile, It sounded like they were probably gonna draft him if the medical evaluation wasn’t a problem. I remember being scared of the Kings drafting him b/c of his health.
And that’s still a reasonable fear with Porter. Fortunately for the Nuggets they don’t really have to depend on him the way the Kings would have.
My goodness, so much has to change for this pick not to be an unmitigated disaster.
A pandemic has changed the entire world! So this pick is not lookin so disastrous comparatively!
Your Sacramento Kings: Better than a pandemic!
Just barely
I’m surprised this hasn’t gone viral yet.
I see what you did there.
Cough … to soon? … OK I mean wink. Also get a +1
We’re avoiding virus jokes like the plague!
It’s always the Dutch…
At this point we’re hoping for a mitigated disaster.
That sounds like a Jerryism!
If there was a redraft, the Kings could trade down to number 10 and get Bagley, Cash Considerations, and a late second-rounder for that #2 slot.
The fact remains, they could have drafted Luka at #2 and traded down with Dallas to #5, picked Bagley, and gotten additional compensation to boot! The fact that Vlade and Co. didn’t have a pulse on the rest of the leagues’ interest and intent is a fireable offense in itself.
It would be a tough pill to swallow, but had Vlade picked Luka, traded him to Dallas for the #5 (most likely Bagley) and had gotten the #10 pick in 2019, I’d be more comfortable with it. I think that is how ATL fans rationalize it. At least they got SOMETHING for not taking Luka.
Just think of the players drafted at #10 last year and below:
Cam Reddisht #10
PJ Washington #12
Tyler Herro #13
Matisse Thybulle #20
Brandon Clarke #21
Kings could have had their guy AND an asset to boot. SMH.
That would have been a competent decision, though! —-something the Kings front office isn’t capable of. 😛
(agree with what you wrote)
At least we had this:
I want to say again thanks for taking the initiative to make this happen.
By the way, I’m pretty sure PJ Washington is better than Marvin Bagley.
Players drafted #10 or later in 2019 I would definitely rather have than Bagley:
Reddish
Doumbouya
Okeke
NAW
Goga
Thybulle
Clarke
Bazley
Claxton
There are more that I would consider, but it would be a tougher choice. Now, I don’t think many would agree with me on some of these, but there it is.
I don’t agree with all of those but the fact that I agree with about 2/3 of them leads me to believe we may have a problem.
There are a few guys here on my list of players not getting enough playing time that I think the Kings should target because I think they have a chance to be very good NBA players. Claxton, Goga, and NAW are among the top guys on that list. Also on that list: Hartenstein, Cheatham, Bazley, Smailagic. Another guy is Justin Patton if he’s ever able to put his injuries behind him. Unfortunately, he’s a big with foot problems, which is a bad sign.
Sidenote from scrolling through rosters: The Grizzilies are making A LOT of good decisions recently. From the obvious hits on Morant, Jackson, and Clarke to taking low risk, high upside fliers on guys like Winslow and Porter. And some of their low level pickups like Konchar.
Here’s the thing, let’s say hypothetically, the Suns had drafted Marvin Bagley #1, the Kings would have chosen Deandre Ayton at 2. So this whole redraft would still have the Kings being the Kangz.
Peace. May the 4th be with you.
Either that, or they trade Fox and the #2 for the #1 selection, and take……Marvin Bagley at #1.
Boo! .. Can cat’s boo? … Hiss!
I wouldn’t draft Bagley at all he does not have a modern game. What a colossal failure. Stubborn idiocy. And to not even take JJJ or so many others at 2. A waste of a pick.
Ooof. First time I’m here since the STR debacle. Going through this article has reminded me the nightmare that ’twas on June 21st 2018.
I remember going from feeling absolute joy on the night of the draft lottery, to denial when a few days before the draft the reports of the Kings likely going for Bagley over Luka surfaced, then going to the anger-bargaining-depression stage as draft day unfolded. Unbelievable 180.
I hit the bargaining stage (after the 1st reports that Bagley would likely be drafted) before I hit the anger & depression stages (after Bagley was actually drafted). This article somewhat returned me to the anger stage (though I’m not nearly as angry as I was right after Bagley was drafted).
Every day Vlade remains GM my anger simmers on.
I felt the same way before the pandemic. The anger will probably return when the NBA returns.
I was in complete denial about Vlade taking Bags. I remember being on BSOTS(suns) blog going in with others saying that there is no way we pass on Luka. I honestly thought the Bags rumors were nothing but smoke and mirrors. IT WAS MEANT TO BE!!! EURO GM taking EURO star. oy vey.
I also just realized that ever since covid kicked in and not seeing any basketball or STR has allowed me to forget the situation we are in. ugh.
Basketball reality sucks.
I was in complete denial about it as well. I just thought Vlade couldn’t possibly be that stupid despite all evidence to the contrary. And yet here are. Our front office IS as stupid as anything we could imagine.
Fuck you Vlade.
That’s all I’ve got.
Marvin will be a multiple time All Star. Mark my words. — Grant Napear
…in the dunk contest. Reality
If Aaron Gordon couldn’t win the dunk contest, what makes you think Marvin is worthy?
His elite second jump, of course…
The Guangdong Flying Tigers need a power forward so anything is possible!
Grant called Ben McLemore a future All-Star, too. Welp.
And it was honestly more believable than saying the same thing about Bagley.
I am still so pissed off about this. You’d think it would have faded by now, but I think the constant refrain of the “get over it” optimist crowd just kept it at a low simmer. Every revisiting of this decision makes me want to throw things, because Vlade IS STILL EMPLOYED BY THE KINGS.
I still have Bagley’s jersey. It’s still in my closet, since I’ve only been to a handful of games where he actually played.
Marvin Bagley Status: DNP: ArsLegendi
I broke my “never buy a rookie jersey” rule for him, as a gesture towards optimism and to do something about my draft-day anger.
Never again.
I learned my lesson with my Stauskas jersey….and my McLemore jersey….and my Robinson jersey…and my Hawes and Douby double dip error in jersey buying….I won’t even venture to the back of my closet for the Ellison jersey anymore.
I just stopped buying Kings jerseys because I realized after IT was traded that it was futile.
I held off on my HGiiiiiizle jersey for the same reason.
I mean yeah basically all of us said this at the time… All of us behind Sacramento were relieved when they took Bagley 2nd because we knew that we were going to get somebody else. That would move someone else up into us sitting at 4.
It’s a bummer that so many fans all said this at the time and yet here we are. Just an absolute franchise killing level blunder. I firmly believe that if we had Luka with Fox we’d be in the playoffs this season and if we had Jackson and Fox we’d probably be in the playoffs as well. We drafted the bust. Again.
There is still never a bad time to improve your franchise!
Man, this is depressing.
Never forget. Sound up…
Not able to view the video…comes up as private
Do’h
can we just get a loop of hearing “Marvin Bagley” and seeing Hammertimes face between the 6 to 14 second mark?
That was epic.
I’m sorry for brain freezing and posting it twice.
This is incredible!
Thanks. I love the last shot of the lonely spotlight moving along the superfans.
James Ham may shill for the organization publicly but that was the look of a man who was experiencing deep sadness in that moment.
It looks like he was also shocked.
He shouldn’t have been… Woj was reporting the day before that our moron GM was making that pick. At least gave us 24 hours to mourn the inevitable…
Yeah. It also shows how intentionally trend-bucking the Kings were trying to be. They knew that not selecting Doncic would result in negative fan reactions, so the FO that Grant et al. continuously profess never leaks, leaked the crap out of the Bagley selection to soften the blow.
They knew to do otherwise would lead to a bad look. They had people pumping up Bagley a day or two before the selection.
James was effin right on the money there.
Unfortunately, many people knew better than the Kings FO.
I’m reminded of whatever team draft board had Bags ranked 8th back when the draft happened. I think they’re selling Porter kinda high though. Today, I’d put Trey ahead of him. A year from now, who knows. He hasn’t played enough.
After next season Bagely will jump into the top 5 of this list. We all know Bagley’s best skill is his second jump.
Wouldn’t that be his third jump?
It depends on how you look at it. It will be his 3rd season so you could consider that his third jump but I would argue that he didn’t have a chance to get off the ground at all in season two.