It came as a bit of a surprise this summer when the Kings announced that Luke Walton would remain the Kings head coach. Part of that surprise, of course, is that teams rarely feel the need to announce that a coach under contract isn’t going to be fired. But it speaks to the expectations among the fan base and the overall sentiment around Walton’s performance as head coach.
Walton was hired by Vlade Divac following a 39-win season under Dave Joerger. Since taking over Walton has led the Kings to back-to-back seasons of 31 wins and 41 losses, equivalent to a 35-win season in a normal 82 game season. Last season saw the Kings endure multiple 9-game losing streaks, and for most of the year the Kings had the worst defensive rating in all of NBA history (they would finish the year with the second worst of all time). The Kings also fell short of making the play-in tournament (a modest goal that the Kings still couldn’t reach), and saw the franchise’s postseason drought extended to 15 seasons, matching the league’s all-time record for futility.
And yet Monte McNair decided to bring Walton back for another year. For whatever reason, McNair seems satisfied with Walton’s performance. McNair has shown himself to be a patient GM in most aspects, as he hasn’t rushed into big trades either. But does Walton get another full season of grace, or will there come a breaking point where the pressure from fans or (more likely) ownership becomes too great?
The Kings, of course, could play well this season and render Walton’s job safe. As much as I’ve criticized Walton, I’d ultimately love to see the Kings succeed.
But if the Kings struggle, can Walton continue to survive on the same excuses? Injuries are bound to happen. Players will likely still miss games due to Covid protocols. But will those excuses keep Walton through another season if the Kings are again playing poorly?
Hopefully the Kings are good and we don’t find out the answer to this question. If the Kings struggle, we may get to see how far McNair’s patience will go.
Already been way too long.
Two weeks?
Two games?
Ohhhhh….Too Long! Got it. Thanks, Bill 🙂
In Waltons we Trust
Too long.
..
It certainly has felt like forever.
After this season, Luke will only have 1 more year on his contract, now it’s smoother and quieter to make an owner’s contribution call from the new hedge fund owners than individual minority owners to cover Luke’s unique “all my money once fired” contract; and the Kings will probably have missed the playoffs again … so he probably gets the full year but this is probably his last year.
If the Kings are 7-13 or worse after the first 20 I think he’s gone. Or if they start strong and go on an extended losing streak like they did last year.
If the Kings can play .500 ball, I bet he keeps his damn job til the end of the season.
If the Kings are just below .500 by the all star break he may find his seat to be a little more uncomfortable than he’s used to, but they’ll let him try and make a run for the playoffs to save his job.
If the Kings are well below .500 halfway – two thirds of the way to the all-star break I hope the FO pulls the chair out from under him finally.
His “brand” of basketball has done nothing for our team and its hard to find a comp that had this long and ultimately succeeded (with the same team…)
The Hawks started terrible under Lloyd so they fired him. The next thing you know Atlanta one of the top teams in the league.
Why can`t the Kings have nice things?
He’ll be removed on or right after Dec. 4th, right after the Kings go 0-9 against:
@Toronto Nov. 19th
vs. Utah
vs. Philly
vs. PDX
@Lakers
@Memphis
vs. Lakers
@Clippers
vs. Clippers Dec. 4th
They don’t play again until Dec. 8th. It’s almost as if the NBA schedule makers gave the Kings a break in there to practice with their new interim coach Alvin Gentry.
Gentry will then be given a new Kings deal and be fired in two season from his 6th head coaching job ! Plan of Vivekian brilliance !
Pretty much this. Replace that guy who has never coached a team to 40 or more wins with a guy who has only done it 3 times in 17 seasons at a career 46% career winning percentage which is good for an average of…wait for it…37 wins a year.
Same as it ever was.
that is an excellent answer, kudos for the work
Hey now, what other coaches are smart enough to do their own research into vaccines?
But he still can’t wear that mask properly…
Injuries. India. Youth. Patience. Schedule. Covid. Bubble. Chemistry. Olympics. Time. System. No Fans.
You forgot to preface that with, “What Kings fans don’t understand is…”
You read my mind with this lol
Don’t forget “overly negative” fans, which is undoubtedly this team’s biggest issue.
It’s either during the All-star break or after the season ends.
“Hey Steph, you heard of any coaching vacancies in the Bay Area?”
I think it’s only fair that the Clippers hire him next.
Warriors.
L*kers.
Kings.
………Clippers.
Luke needs to get the team into the playoffs this year or he’s gone. And I predict the Kings make the playoffs.
Play-in is best case scenario.
WALTON IS STILL THE COACH???!!!!!
MONTE!!!!!
hopefully is last day as coach was yesterday.Go get Jay Wright.
Walton will be here until the end of the season, unless the team wildly underperforms. When you’re expected to win 35 games, it takes a lot to underperform that. I also think an injury to any key player lets Walton off the hook for almost any underperformance.
I’m glad vaccines are a talking point, again, for part of the thread. Also – great idea to remove the dislike button. Cowards.
Removing the dislike button also got rid of the cowardly act of downvoting comments anonymously, tho.
I guess I don’t understand why anyone would care if their comment got a thumb’s down or twenty. If you disagree with me? Fine. If you think I’m an asshole and want to register a tiny bit of disapproval? It’s a free country. If you want to downvote every single comment on a thread?
For starters, I envy you having so much leisure time, even if I find the way you spend it to be a bit questionable. I figure, whatever keeps the kind of person who would do that sufficiently busy so that they don’t have time to do something actually bad, well, that’s a public service.
And honestly, there was something very funny about seeing a comment that everyone agreed with eventually catch a downvote. It’s a tiny little thumb in the eye to the common wisdom, and I’d like to think that the common wisdom is big enough to fight through it.
Downvotes are every bit as substantial as upvotes, in that they’re both meaningless. I don’t comment because I’m motivated to see if a bunch of people I don’t actually know might agree with me. These are my opinions, and there are some absolutely horrible ones among them.
I love the site, because it does what it does so damned well. I don’t always agree with the writers’ takes, and if I have the time, I’ll explain why. If what I contribute irritates you, or hell, if I irritate you, get that stank thumb out and express yourself. I’m an adult, as I assume the majority of us are. If you don’t have the words or the interest to explain to me just how god damned stupid I am, gimme that thumb’s down. It might make you feel a little better, and it won’t harm me in the slightest.
It did, but I think ruined a bit of the fun in the process. Still a great site, but now it’s hard to tell what the collective feel from the community on a post is…which is part of the reason I come. It’s not a self esteem thing but if I didn’t care at all what others were thinking about the Kings yay or nay, I wouldn’t engage to begin with.
Seeing 5 upvotes means something on a post. Seeing 5 upvotes vs 8 downvotes means something else. I thought that part was fun. Wish it could come back for a trial run and see what community thinks now that we have had both ways.
Cowardly? Disagreeing is cowardly? Gotcha.
I have no freaking clue but I do have a couple of guesses. Overall I honestly expect Walton to finish the season as head coach of the Kangz. I’m guessing there are two inflection points that make sense to me . The first would be somewhere around Christmas – New Years and the second would by the end of the trade deadline. Unlike many here I don’t think it will be determined solely by wins/losses.
Based on the defensive focus Monte put in on both the draft and free agency/trades I’m guessing that a failure to significantly improve on that end could result in Luke’s termination. In early February if has not improved or if there is anything that might indicate that Luke is losing the locker room could result in the same result.
Of course an improved defense should result in improved win/loss record but if Luke continues to play vets over Mitchell and the young developing players in a desperate attempt to keep his job that could add to the impetus to fire him. I don’t think fan unhappiness with the Kings will result in firing Luke. I never thought I’d miss the Maloofs but they were far better owners than vivek is.
It all comes down to the $$$. Unfortunately
we have a millionaire owner in a billionaire’s league. I believe the main reason that Luke finishes the season is because the Kings can’t comfortably afford to pay him off. It will be much easier for the team to let him go with only one year left on his contract.
Yeah, but what is “significant improvement” for a team that was dead last and historically bad on defense?
The bar is so fricking low for this franchise.
I would guess that if the team is flirting with.500 by the the trade deadline that Luke keeps his job. Additionally if the defense works it’s way out of the defensive celler say improving to the low 20’s/high teens he will be golden. I agree, the bar is very low
Part 2 of today’s question: In 2028, should we renew Walton’s contract for a fourth time as a five- or six-year deal, because we are bad people who eat dirt?
I laughed. Then I cried.
How long will Fluke be the coach? Forever, bwawwawaawaua. Answering these questions requires a few suppositions, namely, who are our starters and what does our rotation look like and when do we land Simmons, and how infectious is Davion’s defense and does an expected increase in overall competitiveness, i.e. playing harder, correlate to an increase in overall execution, i.e. playing better? An elite point of attack defender can make everyone appear to be better, from teammates less exposed and able to overplay and get out and run, make plays they would otherwise be unable to make when having to try to cover on a blow by from the point of attack.
You cannot however run three guards and play HB at the 4. HB has to start, therefore you cannot start Ty, Davion and Fox. You cannot get away with a starting lineup of 6’0 6’3 6’4 6’8 and 6’10 against over half of the league. Consider a few of the elite wings: Ingram, Luka, PG13, LeBum, even dudes likes Anthony Edwards, MPJ and Wiggins. HB has to be assigned to these guys as our best wing defender. Fox starts, Holmes starts, and for reasons that I detailed previously, Davion should absolutely start. So you have a decision to make on your 5th starter.
The counter is why not just roll with your five best players, let the opponent adjust and deal. How might a three guard lineup, HB and Holmes work and wreak havoc, 48 minutes of holy hell or as many minutes as they are on the floor? Well, they would have to force a ton of TOs and a lot of misses to compensate for an inability to clear the defense boards and for the fact opponents are going to pound the glass and punish us for going small. It would turn into a battle of wills, us trying to force the opponent to go small to keep up with our speed, or us being forced to go big to keep the opponent from an interior assault, putbacks and second and third and infinity chances.
When OKCs three guard lineup worked, Westbrook was getting 10+ RPG. We would need to Ty, Fox and Davion to average 15+ RPG between them, HB getting 8 RPG instead of 6 RPG. One variable that could work in our favor is Holmes could stay home more on pick and rolls instead of switching onto the guard thereby putting him in better rebound position to get 12 RPG instead of 8 RPG. It is deflating to continuously play good to great defense then not close out the possession with a rebound because you do not have the size and length and bulk, and this is invariably the problem that would haunt this lineup.
The bullshit move I would not put past this coach for one nanosecond is he does not start Davion but starts Marvin. Think of the hypocrisy. After preaching defense all summer. He starts one of the 10 worst big defenders in the NBA, disrespects Off Night, his championship (NCAA and LVSL) and DPOY pedigree and rewards selfishness over selflessness, and sends the wrong message to every player on the team, everyone in the organization and every fan witness to the worst defense in NBA history.
One of the questions the 30Q series should not be “Should Marvin Start?” rather it should be “Does Marvin belong in the Rotation?” Metu is better and more comfortable on the perimter making decisions and facilitating offense. Metu is the better lob threat. Marvin is faster in transition and second jumps. Everything else they do is about even. Marvin is arguably not better than Harkless and they are about the same size. Both are non-physical but unlike Marvin, Moe uses his savvy and anticipation to overcome his lack of physicality. Marvin just fouls and then shifts blame to the ref or teammate. If you ran a 4-man rotation of Len, Holmes, Metu, and slid HB to the 4 in small ball sets you quickly run out of minutes for Marvin and the team would hardly be worse for wear.
Unless we lead the NBA in forced TOs, not the most fantastical proposition, and able to defend the hell out of the ball and get monumental guard-help on the boards, still rank near the bottom of defensive rebounds but do enough otherwise to compensate, I do not see how a three guard lineup with HB and Holmes has staying power. It can work splendidly in situations but the league has gone big and this cannot be dismissed. Ty is the man to bring King, TD, Buddy and Marvin together in the second unit, could it not be any more obvious? So he has to brought off the bench if we are to make hay instead of sputter and unravel.
The coach has to set aside politics of playing time and do what is right and screw the blowback. And this also pertains to Buddy and Marvin, screw their feelings and screw their ego and their posse and social media, it is not personal, it is business. The coach is fighting for his survival and he’s going to be resistant to elevate a deseving rookie over an undeserving veteran? If he cannot make this righteous call, it is for the best that the sooner this loser is canned, the better, though hopefully not at expense of another wasted season.
Len and Holmes starting solves your rebounding. HB starts. Fox and Davion start. If the spacing proves troublesome, or even if it doesn’t the calvary is in wait including Ty, TD, Buddy, King and Metu. That is a lot of firepower off the bench, Marvin could even find his niche here. If Holmes and Len get in each others way, then you could go with Holmes and Metu to start. You are not as good defensively or boards but you have better spacing. There is not an obvious or super appealing option until we add Simmons but there is some bad ones. This is the foreboding sign preceding the open of camp. When there is a bad choice to be made, odds are this coach will make it.
I would even be accepting of Marvin starting if Davion starts. And lets see if Marvin has had a coming to Jesus moment over the summer and put in as much or half the work Fox did in the weight room? Regardless you put pressure on Marvin to defend, and you can make his job easier as he is surrounded by defenders: Holmes, Fox, Davion and HB. Ty is the first off the bench with Buddy, and you have a second unit with not a lot of drop off. Now if this jerk of a coach already has Ty penciled in as a starter, that is his choice and nail in coffin, putting individual over team, then you are not really serious about getting serious. The bold prudent moves include burying Marvin if he does not perform and elevating Davion when he does. Anything less is fatalistic to the decision maker and the season.
I can almost talk myself into Marvin as a starter, only with Davion as a means to try to hide his weakeness and path to salvation, propped up by our best defenders and good scorers to dissuade black hole tendencies. And wasn’t the plan all along to team Marvin with Fox to run opponents off the floor? Their time together has not been sufficiently explored. Regardless if he cannot discern between a bad shot and a decent one, permantly shelf the three ball, carve out and hold position in the paint without hacking or folding, any role he is put in is futile. The other argument to start Marvin is that Buddy certainly will come off the bench and you probably do not want your two worst defenders sharing the floor.
We are left with Marvin benched behind Len and Metu or a 25 MPG starter as the probable outcomes, a modest but productive contributor in the latter case. His play in the preseason will give strong indication. He needs to be noticeably stronger or the bust tag can be made official.
I don’t think Fluke ever decided to start Bagley. The front office did. Flukes predecessor was fired because he openly pointed out that Bagley was not worth dog shit.
Your facility for just creating absolute horseshit out of thin air is truly remarkable.
So Joerger was a proponent for starting Bagley?
Bagley had nothing to do with Joerger being replaced?
The front office has not demanded that Bagley start?
So if you had your coach of choice before the season started, how many games would/should/could the Kings win with that coach?
He wouldn’t necessarily be my first choice but, I’d put money on Thibs getting this team to play .500 basketball.
So 6 more wins?
Yeah, about that.
Actually, maybe more. Look was he did in NY. That team increased by 20 wins while really only changed ancillary players.
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