In today’s NBA, the three pointer is King. Steph Curry, love him or hate him, changed the game forever. Today’s NBA teams shoot three pointers more frequently and more accurately than ever. Last season’s champions, the Boston Celtics, shot 42.5 threes a game (1st in the NBA) and hit them at a 38.8% rate (2nd in the NBA). For comparison of how much the league has changed in 20 years, Mike D’Antoni’s “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns teams who were considered one of the most frequent jump shooting teams of all time back in 2005 only shot 24.7 threes a game. Last season’s least frequent three point shooting team was the Denver Nuggets, and they still put up 31.2 attempts.
Spacing has become such an important part of the game that you have to be abnormally good at something that isn’t shooting to be considered a good player in the NBA if you aren’t a great outside shooter. For De’Aaron Fox, that has been the case for most of his career as he’s thrived on his incredible speed, playmaking and deadly finishing. On the way, he’s developed a deadly midrange game but for most of his career never really developed an outside shot, until last season when he shot and made more threes than ever, and by a big margin.
Before last season, Fox’s best season from distance was his sophomore year where he made 37.1% of his attempts but only shot 2.9 a game. By 2022-23 he had continued to increase his attempts (5.0 per game) but only made them at a 32.4% clip. Of the 90 players that shot that many three pointers per game that season, Fox ranked just 86th. He was deadly efficient in all other areas (his 58.4% from two was a career-high, as was his 78% free throw percentage), but the three point shot still seemed to elude him.
Last season, Fox seemingly made it a point to extend his range and show off an improved shot and was successful for the most part. Fox increased his attempts to 7.8 a game and made 36.9% of them, a much improved number, but still not what would consider elite (the league average 3P% for the season was 36.6%). Most of that success also came in streaks; From October to December, Fox was actually shooting 40.3% on 8.8 attempts a game. January through March however saw him shoot more in line with his career averages, making 33.2% of his threes on 6.8 attempts a game, before heating back up in April where he made 40.5% a game. Fox relied on the three more than ever. Before last season, Fox had only shot 10 or more threes in a game 8 times; Last season alone he shot 10 or more threes in 18 games, including one game in which he shot 17.
Fox becoming a better shooter is a good thing, especially for a Kings team that will feature a couple of non-shooters in their starting lineup this season with Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan. But the Kings still need Fox to find a balance in his shot selection to do what he does best. While his three point percentage was up last season, his percentage from every other area on the floor was down from the prior year, including from the free throw line where he only made 73.8% of his attempts. Fox was also far more efficient as a spot up shooter (39.1% on 3.1 attempts a game), but most of his attempts came on pull ups (35.6% on 4.5 a game). Given that Fox tends to have the ball in his hands the most, it makes sense that most of his attempts would be pull-ups, but I’d still like to see that ratio evened out a bit.
That’s where the addition of DeMar DeRozan could help Fox a lot. For much of the past two years, the only creators on the floor most of the time were a combination of Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk. DeRozan adds another playmaker who can create shots for himself or others. One of the main criticisms of the DeRozan signing was that it would reduce Sacramento’s spacing, but if Fox is able to get more open catch and shoot attempts as a result, the spacing should be fine. Fox has proven to be a reliable enough threat that teams won’t be able to just leave him open on the perimeter.
It did feel at times that Fox’s outside shot became a crutch at times though. Too often, Fox relied on that outside shot last season rather than probing the defense or searching for something better. Of those 18 games mentioned previously where Fox shot 10 or more attempts from distance, six of them were in games where he made 33.3% or fewer. I’d like to see him be a little more selective in the future, especially when the shot isn’t falling. Relying on the outside shot also meant fewer trips to the line, and his free throw rate was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. An early season shoulder injury didn’t help matters, and it was something that was nagging him all season. Hopefully a return to health will also see a return to some of the aggression in attacking the rim and seeking contact, because that’s where Fox has truly shined in the past.
Still, it was very good to see a marked improvement in Fox’s outside shot, because if that can become a consistent threat, Fox becomes one of the NBA’s deadliest scorers. In fact for the first few months of last season when he was shooting lights out, he was as he was averaging 30 points per game. With DeMar DeRozan on board, that scoring load will probably come down, but with it so will the defensive pressure. I’m very interested to see how Fox’s game evolves to play with another primary threat like DeRozan, and that improved outside shot will likely factor in a ton.
Hopefully, the shoulder is fully healed. Fox now being a true three-level scorer could wreak havoc on opposing defenses and make his three point shot better or have it remain good.
In prior seasons, defenders could close out short on Fox and it might be a good idea as he could take advantage of long closeouts with his drives where he could pull up from midrange, finish at the rim, or drive and kick to players whose defenders were helping to contain him.
Now, Fox has shown he can shoot well from distance, so opposing coaches have to pick their poison when instructing their players how to play him when he’s off ball and receives a pass from Domas, DeMar, or Monk. If it’s a hard closeout, then they open themselves up to everything in the last paragraph, playing 4 on 5 against the Kings for a bit. If they don’t closeout hard, they may see a Fox three.
Versatility is a benefit of course.
3pt shot selection is key. He can’t just take any 3 that he wants and be efficient. Set shots and flow of the offense.
To answer the question, yes I do think he will become a better 3pt shooter this season. 2 reasons why:
1.) another year of offseason work put in to becoming better
2.) getting more open set looks because of DeRozan.
DeRazan will pull defenders toward him and away from Fox. With those extra wide open looks he will inevitably get his numbers from distance up.
Defenses are going to have a hard time with the Kings big 3 + Spock who I have zero doubt will also have a better season of shooting from deep. It’s funny, I feel like Spock and his expected improvement offensively from year 2-3 is being drastically overlooked when people analyze the potential of this years team. He’s barely mentioned at all. One could argue that the Kings have a big 4 and it’s flying completely under the radar.
Totally agree on Keegan. Given that DDR is being added to the mix and will take shots away from the team as a whole, I don’t necessarily think Keegan’s aggregate numbers will go up much, if at all. But his efficiency should take a big jump. I’m super excited to see how this team gels this year.
Maybe “the Hulkin’ Vulcan” or “Dr. Spock”’ for a fun play on Dr J ????
Solid, I can make room for some Vulcan drops from time to time. Logical
I know this article is about Fox but I have to ask, if shooting to provide spacing is as important as we all know it is why would the Kings even consider trade Huerter, the best pure shooter on the roster?
To me, it seems like the trade scenarios for the Kings were either Barnes or Huerter. I didn’t figure they’d dish both. At this point, who are the best 3P shooters on the roster? Keegan, Huerter, Lyles – and you hope that McLaughlin and Ellis keep their percentages up after good shooting years last year. I agree, they should probably hold on to Huerter at this point unless a really great offer comes along.
Because he’s a shitty defender who gets targeted in playoffs-therefore can’t be on the floor.
Not to mention, he doesn’t tend to make the 3when needed.
Im hopin they trade him
His defensive rating for 2023-24 was in the neighborhood of Malik and Domas. His net rating was better than both. Overall, all three are below average if you go off defensive rating, which I understand to be highly reflective of team defense. Add Keon into the mix and pull Huerter off the bench to face lesser players and I don’t think we’ll be worrying too much about Huerter’s defense.
I was sort of hoping they would trade him but rff makes a good point here – if the Kings were to bounce Huerter, does that severely impact shooting beyond the arc? I suspect so, unless someone unexpected steps up, like Fox or Monk – both of whom are not particularly reliable from outside.
i do think Huerter is the potential game changer for this team. If he has a bounce back year and is the Huerter from Kings season 1 then this team will be scary.
Huerter as a back up SF guarding back up SF’s and shooting 38% or better from deep!
look out.
Backup SF gets him oin the court more and I’m all for that.
the issue is Fox’s low ts%.
ts% is the best tool for efficiency we have I’m thinking
I appreciate the outside shot improving, but the vast inconstancy and low ts% need to improve
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