Kings Pulse: The Future of Luke Walton in Sacramento

This whole thing has been rattling around in my head for a while. As I’ve said previously, I’m pretty agnostic about Walton’s job status going into next season. I can see the obvious Pros for replacing him, but I also think a lot of people are downplaying the obvious Cons. Here’s how I see it:

Objective Pros for new coach:

• Accused of sexual misconduct
• The team has the worst defense in the NBA (by a wide margin)
• Walton has been a head coach for 5 season, and has yet to have a winning season.
• The team had two 9 game losing streaks this season
• The WIN% is lower in the last two seasons than the season prior to Luke’s arrival
• Buddy Hield has regressed in the two seasons under Walton

Objective Cons for new coach:

• If the season ended today, Luke Walton’s offense would finish in the top 10 in ORtg. The last time a Kings team finished in the top 10 was in 2005.
• They have the #1 transition offense in the NBA
• The Kings went 10-5 after their first 9 game losing streak, and are currently 9-4 following their second 9 game losing streak
• There have been no reports that he has lost the locker room
• Fox has gone on the record advocating for keeping Walton
• The Kings will finish with more wins than they were projected to win prior to the season.

Subjective Pros for new coach:

• Better coaches than Walton will be available this offseason
• This team may do better with a coach that shows a bit more fire, and holds them accountable
• May be an opportunity for a fresh start with Bagley going into his contract year
• McNair should have the ability to hire his own coach
• The win total may be a bit of a mirage based on the actual +/-
• It doesn’t appear as though Walton can really make the whole greater than the sum of it’s parts.

Subjective Cons for a new coach:

• It at least appears as though Walton’s developmental staff is above average. That staff will most likely be dismissed if Walton is fired.
• Walton seems to work well with McNair.
• The Kings will be on the hook for $11 million left on Walton’s contract. That may limit how much they’re willing/able to pay for a new coach
• During the GM search, blue chip GM’s bowed out, in part, due to not the Kings not meeting their salary requirement in addition to their concern about working with Vivek. That same scenario could play out during the coaching search
• The Kings are notorious for not attracting blue chip coaches, and nothing about this roster in it’s current form makes the job more attractive than any other job that will be available
• The talent level next season should theoretically be higher than it is now. Typically, coaches prefer to take over a team that needs help making the leap versus a team in the middle of a rebuild.
• There is something to say about continuity. It can help with player development. The coaching community typically values job opportunities with team’s that will give them a fair chance to succeed.
• I personally have not heard a convincing argument for why the Kings need to urgently make a coaching change
• The Walton discourse is pretty annoying. It would be nice to not have to constantly hear how every problem is the coach’s fault for a little while

Anyways, that’s it. I think I’d be more comfortable with a change if McNair goes into it with a short list of coaches he knows will take the job. If the Kings go into the search not knowing who is actually willing to take the job, then I think I might prefer the status quo.

Also, I don’t know if this is possible, but I’d be okay if McNair waited to make the decision until after the draft lotto. If the Kings jumped into the top 5, then that would probably make the Kings job more attractive.