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Kings Pulse: Breaking down Marvin Bagley’s future

Tim Maxwell joins the show to talk about the 2018 rookie extensions and how they relate to Marvin Bagley and his future.

2018 rookie extension contracts are getting handed out left and right today. On the lastest Kings Pulse, Tim Maxwell and I react to some of the deals that have been agreed upon including:

  • Michael Porter Jr. - 5-years/$172-million
  • Mikal Bridges - 4-years/$90-million
  • Wendell Carter Jr. - 4-years/$50-million
  • Robert Williams - 4-years/$48-million

First of all, I had to talk about how ridiculous it is that Richaun Holmes is getting paid less money than both Wendell Carter Jr. and Robert Williams. What a frickin deal that 4-year/$46-million agreement is for the Sacramento Kings.

We talk about why we didn't expect any sort of Marvin Bagley extension to be announced today and to the surprise of nobody, it looks like we were right.

No matter, the conversation we have of placing a value on Marvin Bagley at this point in his career is a useful one to have. Tim did phenomenal research into previous high-draft picks who have similarly underperformed and their extension values.

He also compared players with similar production levels to Bagley from last season and what they were paid this past offseason. I went into this exercise with a number written down of what I would feel comfortable offering Marvin Bagley in an extension and was not far off from the conclusion that Tim came to as well.

That figure led us to the point of Bagley's impending restricted or unrestricted free agency. Are there any teams that would be willing to offer Marvin Bagley upwards of $12-million annually over several seasons next offseason? What would he have to show this year to warrant that type of deal?

At what value should the Kings no longer consider matching an offer for Bagley next offseason? Or should they just move on from the neverending conversation that surrounds the young big man no matter the cost?

We explore the idea of a smaller contract humbling Marvin Bagley into more of a complementary role. Tim mentioned how it could either humble him or affect his mindset in another direction.

Let us know how you currently value Marvin Bagley from a financial standpoint.

The Overtime question for this pod is: What vegetable do you think you could throw the farthest?

This question was submitted by Ryan (@Kangs2Kings) and I always appreciate goofy overtime question suggestions! At this point, I'm way too deep into Google looking for these topics.

The Kings Pulse Podcast is available on all major listening platforms.

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RobHessing
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October 18, 2021 3:53 pm

Never use “Marvin Bagley” and “Breaking down” in the same headline.

Kosta
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October 18, 2021 4:00 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

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TerzoM
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October 18, 2021 5:11 pm
Reply to  Kosta

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RikSmits
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October 19, 2021 8:13 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Well, I broke down when Vlade drafted Marvin Bagley.

Kosta
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October 19, 2021 12:28 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I broke

Bbmuteman
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October 18, 2021 4:12 pm

Large onions I could probably throw the furthest. It’s almost the right size and weight of a baseball.

Kosta
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October 18, 2021 5:45 pm
Reply to  Bbmuteman

Push-shot that onion like you’re Richaun Holmes!

Bbmuteman
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October 18, 2021 5:52 pm
Reply to  Kosta

Any kings player that has previous football experience I’d have throw for me.

SuperShaka
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October 18, 2021 6:28 pm
Reply to  Bbmuteman

The looseness of an onions outer scales might hurt your grip. A similar sized Yukon Gold potato would be my choice.

CoreyBrewersD
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October 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Reply to  SuperShaka

I agree on the onion, I was thinking the same on the potato ( extra credit to you for “Yukon Gold” specifics.
I am still a little doubtful a potato is a legit vegetable vs a tuber.
Bagley isn’t all that bad, the injuries and attitude certainly reduce his Value. He can control the tude’ but the injuries Wow. Time will tell.

andy_sims
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October 18, 2021 4:19 pm

I agree with a lot of what you guys said, in terms of comps and potential offers for Bagley. The part where you discuss that Bagley needs to go to help the poor, traumatized fanbase?

This is how you know that you’re spending too much time on Twitter. You know that 99% of us do not follow the Kings with anything close to the obsessiveness that we do here, and absolutely nothing like what the content generators need to do in order to stay busy. It’s fair to say that fans are disappointed with how Bagley’s career has progressed, but the lockerroom cancer, social media, and family stuff? All of it is a non-story for most.

My guess would be that he’s gone at some point before the ’22-’23 season begins, and that barring something extraordinary, that’ll be the proper decision. I’m only basing that on his injury history, and lack of improvement, though. It ain’t personal.

SexyNapear
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October 18, 2021 4:20 pm

Kings are gonna need to pay him 14 million just as a qualifying offer. This dude is toast. What a complete and total disaster of a pick

RobHessing
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October 18, 2021 4:32 pm
Reply to  SexyNapear

Like, Darko Milicic bad…comment image

TerzoM
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October 18, 2021 4:34 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Expensive broken glasscomment image

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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October 18, 2021 4:55 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Yup, especially in terms of talent picked after him. Sure, there are other #2 busts like Derrick “coke machine” Williams, Stromile Swift, Jabari Parker, etc, but nothing like passing transformative like the Darko draft.

Speaking of Jabari Parker, Bagley seems to be on similar career trajectory in failed promise, injuries, selfishness, and a matador defense.

Klam
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October 18, 2021 5:21 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

And we had two of those #2 picks you listed at one point or another!

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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October 18, 2021 5:58 pm
Reply to  Klam

You picked up on that, eh? 😉

rockbottom
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October 19, 2021 7:01 am
Reply to  Klam

Kings currently have 8 former lottery picks on the roster !

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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October 19, 2021 7:26 am
Reply to  rockbottom

It’s kind of crazy when you look around the league. The Miami Heat start just one lottery pick in Bam, and he was 14th. If Simmons doesn’t play for Philly, the 76ers will have just one starter picked in the lottery in Embiid. The only other lotter pick on their entire roster is Drummond…that’s it.

rockbottom
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October 19, 2021 6:59 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Matina keeping an eye on Vivek and her puppets, Vlade and Peja !

RobHessing
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October 19, 2021 8:45 am
Reply to  rockbottom

Dumars to Peja: And that’s how we wound up picking Darko, and the rest is history.

Vivek to Vlade: What did Joe just say?

Matina: Ruh-roh.

Vlade’s Inner Voice: (I like tuna, I like liver, I like chicken, please deliver…)

BabalooMagoo
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October 19, 2021 11:54 am
Reply to  rockbottom

Oh, you mean the “earn while you learn boys”?

AnybodyButBagley
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October 18, 2021 7:28 pm

Hopefully Bagley does something worthy of a discussion. Sitting on the bench is his safe place. Not a positive on the team and not playing so stupid that people notice him.

Sitting on the bench praying some team is dumb enough to make him an offer. His only contract experience is with VD and the Kangz. His reality in terms of salary and contract has been unrealistically amazing so far.

GFunkClassic
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October 18, 2021 8:38 pm

If those are the contracts that Wendell Carter Jr. & Robert Williams got. Bagley’s market is in the same range.

cloudyeyes
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October 18, 2021 8:58 pm

The only way Bagley gets re-signed is if he shows he has massively improved. If I was Bagley, I would be playing like my life depended on it – but he looks like the same player, gained no muscle mass this past off-season.

AnybodyButBagley
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October 18, 2021 9:48 pm
Reply to  cloudyeyes

And on the bench because his knees hurt…..

HongKongKingsFan
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October 19, 2021 6:38 am

We will very soon know who’s in the rotation for PF position………and who’s gonna play first ?

It’s seems TT and Barnes will plays the most minutes for PF….and it’s would be Metu/Bagley

and of course I would definitely placing Metu in front of Bagley..

Adamsite
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October 19, 2021 9:23 am

OT: The price for Ben keeps going down.

Klam
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October 19, 2021 10:12 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Holy crap, things are just going to keep going downhill.

From TMZ:

Simmons practiced with the team on Monday, but looked miserable — playing with his phone in his pocket, and walking away while his teammates huddled.

According to Woj, Rivers tossed Simmons out of practice this morning … and the team slapped him with a 1-game suspension for “detrimental conduct.”

Doc met with the media after practice and said, “I thought [Simmons] was a distraction today. I told him, ‘You should leave Ben.’”

Last edited 11 months ago by Klam
Kosta
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October 19, 2021 10:23 am
Reply to  Klam

Monte, call up Morey and offer Alex Oriaki and Cash Considerations.

Amonk81
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October 19, 2021 12:26 pm
Reply to  Klam

He’s pulling out the James Harden playbook. Act like a total ass/distraction to force the trade.

kings4ever
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October 19, 2021 10:15 am
Reply to  Adamsite

Cool!

bignerd
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October 19, 2021 12:00 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Simmons showing some BBIQ.

A) Stay home, get fined, watch the team do nothing on the trade front but posture.
B) Show up, make everyone miserable, use embarrassment to force a trade.

He picked B.

cloudyeyes
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October 19, 2021 12:19 pm
Reply to  bignerd

Basically. He called out their bluff on getting fined, so he shows up and doesn’t play. Now what happens? He gets fined for showing up and doing nothing? How does that work out?

Last edited 11 months ago by cloudyeyes
kings4ever
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October 19, 2021 10:14 am

This podcast has this schizo quality to it, sorry guys but I don’t get it, serious lapses in critical thinking; on one hand you want to move on from Marvin, on the other you want to hypothetically hand out 3/24, albeit reluctantly. Make up your mind, gentlemen.

Why don’t you just say “good riddens” and dismiss with niceties? All we are doing here is evaluating performance, not an indictment of the man as a man. I am fairly sure he is a lovable and loving person off the court, positive character qualities and all that, so get over the reluctance to be brutally honest.

One of the (many) reasons I am the BEST analyst on the Kings, with no one else even close, is I will shred a Kings player to bits w/o remorse or regret because it is not personal. Do you get the obvious that should go without saying but I will say anyway: A player opens himself up to scrutiny by choosing a profession in which his performance is on a public stage: televised before a world (not global, because Kyrie is right) audience.

If the spotlight was too intense or daunting, the player could have chosen less conspicous career as an accountant or repairman or whatever. The player of his own volition chose to exploit his gifts and pursue millions, smartly I would say, in exchange for exposing his game to the fans with a vested interest to see him succeed, or vent their frustration over the lack of success.

So, give me a break with the self-righteous biting of the tongue, the hestitancy to be “too harsh”, I think the 11M that Marvin steals from his employer this season will help to assauge his psychic wounds and butthurt.

Here’s one more point that should go w/o saying but I will say: Marvin is great at basketball. He’s in the Top 0.1% of all basketball players in the world, but that does not mean he’s good enough to be a successful or viable player within a rotation on a winning NBA team. Losing the starting job to Mo’ Scoreless is sufficient evidence of this.

These are the unspoken qualfiers that seem to need to be spoken when I listen to this Pod, we need to establish some ground rules for the newbs and normies and the self-righteous who would contend any “harsh” critique of Marvin is being a “hater”. It is just boring that this needs to be said but there I said it.

And before you decide fair market value, you have to decide if you want him back at all, and since you are leaning towards a separation, whats the point of offering him one penny, other than kill time before the season opener? Heres my offer to Marvin. I generously propose a similar income stream from his rap career: zero dollars and zero cents, take it or leave it!

Additonally Marvin has shown he was not worthy of being the #2 overall pick, so why in the hayseed are former #2s like Derek Williams and Jabari used as proxies to determine the fair market value of his next contract? It makes NO sense!

Part of the problem with Marvin was his self-entitlement that came selected second overall, yet you are still wanting to reinforce that inflated sense of self as a valid reference point for his next contract?

You are also falsely presuming the contracts you reference represent fair value, instead of the regrettable mistakes and overpays that they were. You are presuming this front office over there made this decision, made this mistake, invested in false hope, so our front office should do the same?!

This situation is Willion 2.0. When Willie was suggesting he was worth 80-90M, thats the deal he was seeking entering into free agency, I was of similar mindset. There were fans, not on this forum but elsewhere, saying, let’s lock him up for 3/40 or 4/50, something ridiculous, and my contention was clear, why do you want Willie back at all?

Willie showed more than Marvin as a player before his departure and look at him now. He cannot even beat out Boban for backup on the Mavs. And yet these podsters ignore this reference points and want to hand out 25 million to No Way Marvin? No way!

I am bored with this topic, I have written 1000s of words on Marvin, only exceeded by the words on Buddy, but I am going to exhaust it. When Marvin had a good game vs the Mavs last year, and I think the Pacers too, there were fans investing in him. I was MOCKING his “good” game, and said let’s see him do it 3X in a row, then we will talk about him being a viable player next year. He could not even put together back-to-back games before a fantom bullshit injury!

Instead of irrelevant points of reference, how about Harkless as a reference, the guy who beat him out for the starting PF. He’s making 4.5M per year over 2 years. Or how about Metu as a reference, one of Marvins competitors for playing time. He’s getting 1.8M this year with a team option for 1.9M next year.

Are you going to tell me that a fair contract for Marvin is 4X of what Metu is making? I don’t think so, unless you are living in Bizzarro World!!!!

I am done on Marvin, a boring topic, I have said enough, I have said it all.

And to the fans who say Buddy will start tomorrow are frigging clueless. Buddy is going to start tomorrow?! Put down the bong! I will stake my impeccable reputation on tomorrows starting lineup being the same as what we saw vs LAL. And I will admit if I am wrong, will you? This coach is very predicatable and telegraphs his intentions. Fans who not recognize this are lacking in insight and intution.

Klam
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October 19, 2021 10:25 am
Reply to  kings4ever

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Adamsite
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October 19, 2021 10:51 am
Reply to  kings4ever

I stop reading every time when the this narcissistic crap begins:

One of the (many) reasons I am the BEST analyst on the Kings, with no one else even close, is I will shred a Kings player to bits w/o remorse or regret because it is not personal.

AnybodyButBagley
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October 19, 2021 2:21 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I don’t even bother reading that far…

ScottyPop
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October 19, 2021 3:51 pm

Same. I read the username and start the long scroll down.

Carl
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October 19, 2021 10:52 am
Reply to  kings4ever

tl;dr “Fans dumb. Marv sux”

bignerd
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October 19, 2021 12:13 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

Was like a Dr. Evil parody monolog to give Austin Powers 17.75 minutes to escape from the death trap.

Could have been reduced to two sentences.

AnybodyButBagley
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October 19, 2021 2:21 pm
Reply to  bignerd

Should have never been written.

MyNeighborTurturro
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October 19, 2021 12:51 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

Can you just start your own blog? Your diatribes are longer than the articles you comment on.

RikSmits
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October 19, 2021 1:28 pm

Don’t encourage him.

kfipp
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October 19, 2021 2:35 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

It has to be a bit at this point. I refuse to believe this isn’t high concept art.

BabyGiraffe
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October 19, 2021 2:55 pm
Reply to  kings4ever

Sir, this is a Wendy’s.

Gojira2021
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October 19, 2021 12:27 pm

wow….

Last edited 11 months ago by Gojira2021

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