Royal Roundtable: Can Kings topple the Champs?

With the first round series against the Golden State Warriors just around the corner, the Kings Herald staff got together to take a look at Sacramento’s first playoff series in 17 years and offer our perspectives and predictions. Part One is here. 

Q:  Who is the X-Factor for the Kings against the Warriors?

Akis:  I’m going to go with Malik Monk.  Monk can be hot or cold, but when he’s hot, it’s incredibly hard to stop this Kings team. The Kings went 17-5 this season when Monk scored 17 or more points.  On the other hand, when Monk scored 10 points or fewer (including games he missed), the Kings were only 16-16. With Monk operating at his peak, the Kings will be able to put pressure on the Warriors for 48 minutes.  

Rob H.: My darkhorse candidates are Davion Mitchell and Trey Lyles. I think that either / both can deliver small contributions that wind up making a big difference. 

Bryant: Malik Monk. The Kings will need their bench energy to stay consistent all series long, and that starts with Monk finding consistency and having 4 to 7 great games in a row. 

Tim: Someone from the bench is going to need to step up in a big way, as there are going to be nights in which the starters are missing their shots. If that’s the situation, I most trust Trey Lyles to come in and immediately imprint his style of play on the game. While he’s not a microwave scorer like Malik Monk or an incredible defender like Davion Mitchell, Lyles’ active and aggressive, yet calm approach to the game might snag the Kings an extra victory. And outside of his basketball skills, his willingness to take on the role of the chirpy enforcer will do well against the antics of Draymond Green. 

Omer: Trey Lyles. I expect the Kings to play a heavy dose of Lyles at center in non-Sabonis minutes since the Kings’ backup centers haven’t exactly inspired much confidence. But the Warriors also like to go small with Draymond Green at center, so it’s natural to try and match up with Lyles in the same way. But Lyles will also be important if Keegan Murray struggles to keep up in the blender the Warriors will put you in defensively. Lyles at power forward next to Sabonis makes the Kings less athletic but potentially more disciplined on defense, and Lyles has been a better rebounder. The Kings need Lyles to be ready. 

Kevin: I’ve been saying this all season but I fully expect Malik Monk to win us a playoff game. His seemingly endless supply of energy and ability to drop bunches of points in the blink of an eye is the kind of stuff that playoff legends are made of. Beyond that, I think for the Kings to succeed, they need Monk to keep the scoring on track when the starters sit.

Melissa: I want to say Malik Monk. I think it’s probably Malik Monk. But, I am going to divert and go Keegan Murray. The rookie has been unbelievable this season, and his development into an all around player has been a joy to watch. If Wiggins is healthy enough to make an impact, he could cause Murray problems, but do we really think Donte DiVincenzo can match up with him? If Keegan shoots like he’s shot all season and does more of the attacking that has been a consistent part of his game over the last couple of months, he could be the guy who improves his scoring by 5-6 points in the postseason and becomes the difference-maker with the Warriors’ defense focused on the bigger stars.

Bradley: Mike Brown. I do not remember if any assistants faced the Warriors this soon after leaving their bench. He shut me up about a million concerns and I have no doubt he can do so again. That said, his ability to keep the team on their feet regardless of who plays well is the difference between a long series and a short one. On the court? Huerter and Monk. I like the team’s chances if one of them can have a good game every night.

Tony: Davion Mitchell. I’m not too worried about the Kings’ offense heading into this series. I am pretty worried about their defense. Mitchell is the only defender on this roster with the potential to make great players look mediocre. He’s not going to be able shut down Steph Curry or Klay Thompson or Jordan Poole every night. The NBA doesn’t work like that. Great scorers will score. But Davion can do it once. Davion can do it in a big moment. Davion can be a defensive playmaker. And if he makes enough of those plays, that could be enough to tip the scales in what I think is a pretty even series. 

Greg:  Kessler Edwards. He’s been inconsistent, but his defense could be huge against Curry, or Klay, or Wiggins, or Poole. If he can string together a couple games of solid perimeter defense and add a little extra on offense, that alone could swing a few games.

Q:  Rotations tend to tighten up in the playoffs.  What do you think the biggest difference in Sacramento’s rotation will be for this series?

Akis:  I have a feeling we’re going to see a shorter leash for Keegan Murray in this series than we did in the regular season and probably more Davion Mitchell, given the Warriors tendency to go small and the need for a real impact defender in the backcourt.  The rookie has had a fantastic season, but there’s so much more on the line in the playoffs and I don’t see Mike Brown being as forgiving for mistakes on either end of the floor.

Rob H: I could see Mike Brown riding the hot hand of Huerter or Monk, with the minutes swaying back and forth between the two of them.

Bryant: Given that the Warriors lack a traditional center off the bench, here’s hoping Mike Brown sticks small and uses Trey Lyles as his backup 5. No need to play any of Holmes, Metu, or Len for big minutes outside of foul trouble. I’m hoping Kessler Edwards gets some run for defensive purposes, but I’m not expecting it. I think we’ll see a stricter 8 man rotation. 

Tim: Were going to see eight and nine man rotations all series, with Alex Len likely heading back to the bench, and Kessler Edwards not getting a ton of game time either. Richaun Holmes and Chimezie Metu will cease to exist in Mike Brown’s mind. The Kings will roll small with Lyles at the five when Sabonis is out, with multiple guard-heavy lineups thrown in there as well. 

Omer: I already kind of addressed this in the last question, but I don’t expect the Kings to play their backup centers much, if at all. Chimezie Metu, Alex Len, and Richaun Holmes don’t offer much to counter the Warriors’ style defensively and will clog the lane on offense. I expect Lyles at center to clear driving lanes for De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, and the Kings may not pay a tax for the lack of size because the Warriors like to play Draymond and JaMychal Green at center off the bench. 

Kevin: Not only do I think the rotation tightens up quite a bit but I’d imagine we see a lot less of De’Aaron Fox sitting on the bench for those long predetermined stretches that can feel like an eternity. Foul trouble withstanding, I have to imagine he’ll want Fox and Sabonis on the floor together as much as possible and we’ll rarely see both of them sitting at the same time. I’m expecting we’ll see damn near 40 minutes a night from both of them. 

Melissa: I expect to see a lot more small ball against the Warriors, so thank you for your service, Alex Len. But otherwise, I think Brown will dance with the ones that brought him – while leaning more into riding the hot hand when the opportunity presents itself. I am interested to see if we get more Mitchell for his defensive prowess and what role Kessler Edwards plays – he was very good once acquired and his defense has a place, but if he can’t knock down the open three, he might not get the run we have seen him get the last few weeks.

Bradley: I don’t have much to say that wasn’t said by my esteemed colleagues. Though I do see some situations where Alex Len’s size comes in handy – used sparingly. Other than that, I expect the guys who received sporadic minutes to get their reps when needed, but they’ll have to earn prolonged stints as the series (and whatever the plural form of series is) moves on.

Tony: The biggest difference to me will be big minutes for the best players. Mike Brown has tinkered with the end of his rotation all year and I expect that to continue in the playoffs if certain guys aren’t playing well, but I think it’s time for Brown to fully unleash Fox and Sabonis. They are two of the best-conditioned athletes at their positions, in the prime of their careers, and it’s time to leave it all out of the floor. 

Greg: If Terence Davis sees the floor, it means something has gone terribly wrong.

Q:  Do you think Sacramento’s historic offense will hold up against the Warriors?

Akis:  I’m really not worried about Sacramento’s offense.  The Kings have a ton of weapons and a lot of ways to utilize them.  Mike Brown also knows the ins and outs of the Warriors (and ways to exploit them) better than anyone outside of maybe Steve Kerr himself.  The Warriors aren’t the defensive juggernaut they used to be either, and who knows how long Andrew Wiggins will take to get re-acclimated.  The game is supposed to slow down in the playoffs but the Kings were the 2nd best halfcourt offense in the NBA this season according to Cleaning the Glass (only Dallas ranked higher and Golden State ranked 6th).  I’m more worried about the other end of the floor for the Kings.

Rob H.: I could easily envision some record breaking point totals from these two teams.

Bryant: While it’s certainly possible this inexperienced Kings squad could get some “we’re finally here” playoff jitters in the earlier games, I have no worries about their offense across the whole of the series. Like Rob said, we’re going to see some damn shootouts. 

Tim: I’m not really concerned about the offense holding up. Sure, possessions will be fewer and scores will go down across the board, but the Kings can score in so many ways that I don’t really fear them collapsing just because it’s the playoffs. De’Aaron Fox is still going to rule the fourth quarter, Domantas Sabonis is still going to dazzle with his passing, and Sacramento’s shooters are all pretty reliable from deep. I’m not worried. 

Omer: Yes. The Warriors are middling defensively (14th in defensive rating this season), their best wing defender in Wiggins hasn’t played in months, and their second best perimeter defender in Gary Payton II just came back from injury eight games ago. This team doesn’t have the same continuity they had last season, and in order to defend in today’s NBA you need your whole roster on the same page. The Kings also have no weaknesses offensively. They stretch you out with their shooters and bash you in the paint with Fox and Sabonis. The biggest question is on the other end of the court.

Kevin: Yes, I absolutely do. This might be one of the highest scoring playoff series we’ve ever seen. A lot is being made of the Kings bad defense but this Warriors team is not good defensively either and honestly they aren’t much better than the Kings. Golden State gave up an average 117 ppg this season which isn’t too dissimilar from the 118 ppg average the Kings allowed. In most seasons the Warriors 113 DRgt would be the worst in the league and it’s basically their worst DRtg in franchise history. And while it’s true that everyone’s DRtg is inflated this season due to an insane increase in scoring league-wide, and relative to the average the Warriors are an average defensive team, in most recent seasons being just 5 points worse than the lowest DRtg in the league (which the Kings currently are), would also make you a top 10 defense. Are the Warriors a better defensive team than the Kings relative to the league average? Sure. Are the Warriors a good defensive team? No, I really don’t think so and I certainly do not fear their defense. If you look at Kings vs Warriors pre All-Star break, which would account for all 3 of the games that Sacramento didn’t basically try to lose on purpose, the Warriors gave up an average of 120 ppg (20th worst in the league against the Kings). They say, “Defense wins championships.” If 28 of the 30 teams in the league can’t manage to hold their opponents to less than 110 ppg on average, you better be able to score. Defense is for nerds and the Kings are going to light up the scoreboard. 

Melissa: There will be a game or two where they struggle, because that happens to offensive-minded teams that have little playoff experience. But this series screams take the over, as both teams will likely be content to get up and down and try and outscore each other. It will be interesting to see if either team is capable of playing “playoff basketball” and tightening the screws if needed on defense, but when your bread is so obviously buttered on one end of the floor, and so is your opponent’s is there much of a reason to try and change your style this series?

 Bradley: Yes, this Warriors team doesn’t scare me much in terms of the team’s offense. If the Warriors win, I believe it means that Steph or Klay showed up with Wiggins and the unchartreused rogue’s gallery behind them.

Tony: Yes. Draymond’s playoff defense and physicality could ruin this answer for me, I’ll give him that, but for the most part I think the Kings will score enough to win the series. Will they defend enough? I’m not so sure. 

Greg: I think the offense will be just fine. That said, I won’t be surprised at all if it looks really bad in the first quarter of Game 1. The Kings have had a habit of slow starts especially in big games where the crowd is really hyped.

Q:  What is your prediction for who wins this series and how many games?

Akis:  This was one of the toughest draws the Kings could have gotten after such an amazing year, which is a bit unfair, but it’s also a nice test. Still, I do think that in the end the Warriors experience will win out, but the Kings will make them earn it.  Warriors in 7.  If the Kings do manage to win the series though, what a confidence boost.

Rob H.: Give me the Kings in the full seven. I mean, why not, right? Why. The. F. Not?

Bryant: I wish I was as confident/eternally optimistic as my fellow Kings Herald writers. I would love to have this prediction mocked endlessly by the Sacramento faithful in two and a half weeks. I’d love to see our Kangz be the ones who finally dethrone the Warriors in the Western Conference. But I’ll believe the Warriors dynasty is dead when they are done and buried. Dubs in 6. 

Tim: Kings in six. They’re younger. They’re better. Light the Beam. 

Omer: Kings in seven. I think bettors and analysts are all counting on the Warriors to regain their form from the last playoff run. And, honestly speaking, if the Warriors do flip that switch, the Warriors will clean up the Kings 5 or 6 games. But I can’t help feel the Warriors have been telling us who they are for the last six months. They have been painfully average ever since the champagne dried on their locker room floor. They are 14-13 with their starting five healthy. Their defensive leader punched out their best young player last offseason and they haven’t found the same gear on defense since. They are absolutely atrocious on the road and are shambolic in close games this season. Everything about the Warriors in 2022-23 on paper says the Kings should beat them. Like I said, this all changes if the 2022 Champions show up on Saturday. For the purposes of an official prediction, I’m going to split the difference: the Warriors will raise their level of play, but not to the same level they were at last season, and the Kings will win in seven games. Light the beam!

Kevin: A dynasty will end while a new one begins. The Beam’s holy light will reach for the heavens four times this series. Kings in 7. 

Melissa: Kings in 7. I don’t know if I believe it but I’ll happily try and talk myself into it. Light it up, baby.

Bradley: Cute little run there, Stephen. Kings in 4.

Tony: Kings in 7. I think the Kings have a better team this year, but the Warriors have a significant experience advantage. Numbers and statistics can’t determine the impact that’ll have on the series, and that unpredictable factor makes this matchup a toss-up for me. The Kings had a much better regular season. How will that translate into a playoff series against the defending champions? I honestly have no idea. But I’m choosing to believe. 

Greg: Kings in 6. If you took this matchup on paper and it was any team not named The Sacramento Kings, the Kings would be favored despite the past experience of the Warriors. I am ready to believe in this team.