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2020 NBA Draft Profile: Patrick Williams

The 6'8 Patrick Williams can make a much more immediate impact than some expect, and his defensive upside and developing offensive skillset make him a perfect big forward in the modern NBA.

NBA Position: PF/Possible SF
General Info: 19-year-old Freshman, played for Florida State. Hometown of Charlotte, North Carolina.
Measurables: 6’8", 225 lbs, 6’11” wingspan.
2019-20 Season Statistics: 9.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.7 TOPG (29 games played, 30.9 minutes a contest) – 45.9% FG, 83.8% FT, 32% 3P

Optimism can be a fickle thing. When the 2020 NBA Draft process started in the far distant past of 2019, it made some sense for Sacramento Kings fans to focus on the safest prospects. How else could a player survive the Kangzy culture and the trip to basketball hell? Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith are local favorites for a reason - because their value on the court is clear. But Patrick Williams? A so-called project player, ain't nobody in Sac got time for that. Vlade Divac and company were full speed ahead for the playoffs, and as Luke Walton’s use of Justin James and pre-bubble DaQuan Jeffries showed, there isn’t playing time for a developing youngster when it’s postseason or bust.

Enter Monte McNair, whose job doesn’t hinge on success in 2021. How will the new Kings General Manager handle the 2020 Draft? It’s still a big question mark, and words are cheap when actions mean everything, but…

Williams can be considered a project player - he needs some real help from smart physical and skill development personnel to bring out his wide array of abilities. But the secret of Patrick Williams is that he’s much more NBA ready than some expect, and will be able to contribute fairly early by providing clear value on both ends of the court.

That said, are we optimistic enough on the Kings future to trust their development staff again? Rico Hines is well respected across the league, but Luke Walton still calls the shots, for now. Does McNair’s ascension clear enough of the Kangz pessimism? For me, the answer is yes - Patrick Williams sits 10th on my Big Board, and is one of my favorite prospects for the Kings.

As the youngest American player in the draft, there’s no denying that it will take a team time to unlock the full breadth of Williams’ skills to NBA levels. That said, his ‘raw’ status has become overstated. His 22.5 minutes per game at Florida State this season seems limiting on the surface, but team context matters. Coach Leonard Hamilton famously believes in a deep bench, as 10 players averaged 10 or more minutes per game this season. Florida State was clearly a smart developmental choice for Williams, as this squad provided the spacing, full-team playmaking, and fellow members of the give-a-shit-on-defense club to get Williams used to a versatile role… but he’d have gotten way more playing time in other programs.

In addition, being labeled a project does not mean that Williams won’t be able to contribute from the tip off of his rookie season; he has swing skills (passing, ball handling, and flexibility improvements) that need work, but the skillset he has now will earn him a strong spot in any rotation. I expect that with his defensive instincts and quietly underrated shooting ability, he can be an impact reserve from tip off.

Williams’ biggest upside comes as a defensive wrecking ball. Much like his teammate Devin Vassell (and most NBA-level prospects who come out of Florida State), Williams is an excellent team defender, ready to leap over and disrupt when there’s a breakdown in defensive coverages. While he’s not the tallest (6’8) or longest (6’11 wingspan) prospect out there, his intersection of strength, high-point explosiveness, and quick instincts made him a surprise grim reaper for a ton of plays this season.

Williams is generally disruptive, quick to stunt and dig handlers for any sign of dribbling weakness and apt to play the passing lanes (to hilarious results - he knew this pass was coming before the passer did, so it ends up under his arm!). He gambles for steals, bites on shot fakes, and overextends himself defensive - none of which are really negatives, because (1) teams should draft the overconfident and teach them restraint, and (2) Williams' defensive awareness is damn sharp for a 19 year old. Check out this play (which stems from Devin Vassell, of all people, losing his man):

His instincts and Coach Hamilton’s willingness to green light Team Chaos shows up in the stats; Williams averaged 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals per 40 minutes, with a 5.6% block rate and a 2.5% steal rate. Only four freshman with at least 650 minutes played in a Power Conference have hit those rates in the past 12 years; Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel, Zion Williamson, and Williams. Patrick has real upside as a rim protector, and given his strength at his age, he leaves little doubt that he’ll fill out enough to handle the post at the NBA level.

 

But Williams has a clear weakness that keeps him from being a top-tier defensive prospect - the youngster needs some real help unlocking flexibility and agility if he’s ever going to be able to become a switchable defender. He’s clearly outlier strong and explosive, but to the point where his own bulk might be slowing him down too much - his damn quads seem as big as his head! He can clear big spaces with pace, but the tight confines of a one-on-one with a guard leave him plodding, and he’s not shifty or flexible enough to dance with savvy ball handlers. Look at this switch in a contest against North Carolina - one hesitation move from Cole Anthony makes Williams take like four steps in order to flip his hips, get up, and contest the shot.

Williams’ feet can’t keep up with his eyes - an issue that sprung up constantly when Florida State switched, which is all the time. When a guard gets level with him on a drive, it’s mostly over. And while this will only become a bigger issue at the NBA, this sort of instinct positive/physically negative weakness seems the exact gamble a smart NBA team would make. I won’t claim to be a trained kinesiologist, but as long as his future team is confident in their strength and conditioning coaches, I’d hope this issue could get mitigated somewhat with proper weight training. It’s a gamble, but it’s a gamble backed up by existing player instincts. It’s not relying on a player becoming what he’s not - it’s helping a player unlock what he already could be.

Villanova’s Saddiq Bey, another primary 4/hopeful 3, shares the same clear weakness - ok open-court quickness for a bigger forward, but limited flexibility and non-elite wingspan will tempt guards to hunt for him. Just like with Williams, I’d hope some flexibility training can help Bey’s feet catch up with his head. But Williams gets a massive boost over Bey defensively for a clear reason; Williams’ explosiveness gives him a much better chance to recover (and, well, a higher defensive ceiling overall). They are not comparable athletes.

 

On the offensive end of the court, Williams has some clear roles. His strength and motor should make him a capable pick-and-roll player, and if his handling and passing continue to develop, he could even run some PNR actions himself. Given his motor and attitude, he could earn minutes just by constantly going for the offensive rebounds and cutting off the ball. He has some face-up promise, although not without some major grimaces. But the real offensive role for Williams is as a catch-and-shoot player, and with some actual off-the-dribble equity to boot. This isn’t a move you’ll find from either Bey or Aaron Nesmith, the lauded shooting forwards of this draft class.

 

Williams doesn’t have a speedy release and showcases knock knees when he jumps (the quads of the Gods limiting him again!), but he shows fairly consistent upper body mechanics and has a high release point (with an even higher arc on the shot). Overall, he’s a solid shooting prospect whose value on offense gets hidden by middling attempt numbers. He shot 83.8% from the line (4.5 attempts per 40), and according to Synergy, he was 39.3% on all jumpshots in the halfcourt, and 41.9% on pull-ups.

His 32% clip from deep looks mediocre until you realize that it was just on 50 attempts, a volume that skews that percentage all to hell; two more makes and he’d be at 36% (and this wouldn’t be considered an issue), while with two fewer makes he’d be at 28% (and he’d be pretty much undraftable). But while the volume is low, it should be noted that nearly 25% of his total shot attempts were threes. Most importantly, Coach Hamilton played him as a shooter - Williams spent a ton of time on offense spacing the floor, roaming around the three point line, and moving to find openings. That’s not to say that his creative endeavors off the bounce aren’t without their warts… but don’t tell Williams he can't shoot.

While it’s very fair to worry about Williams’ low attempt numbers, looking beyond his collegiate numbers points to real upside. As draft maestro PD Web pointed out in a Williams breakdown on The Strickland - “Taking Pat’s high school and EYBL (Nike Elite Youth Basketball League) numbers and adding in the college numbers gives us: 75% on 367 free throw attempts, and 42% (!) on 236 3-point attempts.”

A swing skill for Williams is his passing ability; he finished with just 29 assists on the year (1.8 per 40 minutes), but flashed plenty on hockey assists and was as trusted as any of the Florida State forwards to bring the ball up if he got the defensive rebound. Check out Spencer Pearlman of the Stepien, who put together a great showcase of Williams’ passing skills.

On paper, Williams’ total rebounding numbers (4.0 per game, 7.1 per 40) aren’t overly impressive for his future position, but again, team context matters. Florida State is an all-out rebounding team, with no one averaging more than Vassell’s 5.1 per contest. Expect that in the NBA, when he’s not playing next to multiple other bigs in a giant lineup, Williams will showcase his tenacity for the rebounds.

Fit wise, Williams’ defensive instincts and role as a power wing offer the Kings something they haven’t had from a young guy since… Gerald Wallace? Williams’ hops and shooting upside make him a clear fit with De’Aaron Fox, even if his quickness needs to get pulled from those oversized quads in order to run at Fox’s warp speed.

But it’s also key to note that Williams could be a really, really good fit with Marvin Bagley. I’ve long argued that Bagley would be best used primarily at the 5, and Williams’ intersection of skills makes him an excellent 4 next to Bagley. Sure, neither are the best perimeter defenders (for different reasons - Williams for quickness, Bagley for instincts), but Williams provides the defensive upside you need next to Bagley. Williams could also fit as a strong rim protector, a more physical rebounder, and floor spacer who won’t overly crowd the post. True, the pairing may not have the optimal sheer height and strength combination, but in my book they have very compatible skillsets. If the Kings snag Williams in November, ignore the easy, lukewarm takes of “well, I guess McNair is replacing Bagley” - this could be a really fun and efficient big man pairing in a year or two. But even if you have no faith in Bagley whatsoever and think he shouldn’t exist in a fit conversation… sure! Strong, defensive minded 4s who can shoot fit with pretty much any center, yeah?

Forget the project player label - that to me, hides what Williams actually is. He won’t come in and immediately be a statsheet monster, but I expect he’ll earn minutes quickly with his defensive awareness and under-heralded shooting abilities. These are the type of ‘raw’ players a smart team buys into - the ones with obvious feel for the game and clear, hopefully fixable (again, I ain’t no physical trainer!) limitations. Indeed, Williams seems such a great fit for the modern NBA, one wonders if NBA teams haven’t had him in their top 10 for a long time… and if there’s really any chance he lasts to Sacramento at all.

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Parker Wells
9 days ago

I think Patrick Williams would make a terrible backup PG.

Miles W
9 days ago
Reply to  Wonderchild

Super backup PG, just young.

andy sims
9 days ago

Very thorough breakdown, thanks for all of the work.

Until yesterday, I’d have been against selecting anyone in the draft who wasn’t mostly a finished product, even if his upside wasn’t all that high, or just trading the pick for a solid rotation player.

But with McNair filling out his staff with people who know more than how to chew gum and spend twelve hours a day in a strip club? Maybe Sacramento can stop being the place where rookie potential goes to die.

Of course, the positive change we need won’t occur until Lose Walton is chucked into the waste can of history. How many extremely talented high draft selections did he misuse and let languish while in LA? He can’t coach up rookies, and failed to make the playoffs, even with the best player in the league on the roster.

I hope whomever gets chosen will have management imposing their plan on the head coach, and not leave it to him to do the right thing, or figure it out.

Finally, it feels like the Kings may be on the road to someplace good. Just a couple of more potholes to fill in, and a competitive team could actually surface in Sacramento.

Last edited 9 days ago by andy_sims
andy sims
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

McNair’s moves so far have all looked smart, and it doesn’t seem to me that he’s being forced to economize in forming his office team. I don’t think that there’s any doubt that a different coach would be in place if circumstances were different.

I can’t wait to see how Walton manages to finish with the Kings drafting outside the top five next year.

Parker Wells
9 days ago
Reply to  andy_sims

Agree, to a point. It’s hard to imagine taking a project pick when we don’t know what the rest of the roster will look like, nor the capacity of how the coaching staff can groom young talent.

All in all, a great breakdown. I like that the article says he can be a great fit next to both Bagley and Fox. Even though the Kings shouldn’t be drafting for specific fit, they should still be looking for players that fit in many different lineups. Because we have no clue what this team will look like after the draft and free agency periods.

Last edited 9 days ago by Wonderchild
Vincent Serrato
9 days ago

I’m really indecisive about who I believe the selection at 12 should be. I was high on Williams for the month of June, the previous month I was all in on Josh Green. July comes and im all for Pokuseviski and taking highest upside. August I starting leaning either for Sadiq Bey or Kira Lewis. September comes, I see a video of RJ Hampton im all in. Now, I think Jalen Smith takes a lot of guessing out of the pick and know how useful a C who can shoot, block shots and rebound is.

And people expect me to Vote 🗳?? lol jk.. The extra time this draft has taken really makes me question my evaluation of these guys.

andy sims
9 days ago
Reply to  Chent

Let me help:

Ralph Lawrence Reyes
9 days ago
Reply to  Chent

You’re not alone! I went from wanting Josh Green to Poku to Okoro to Maxey to Kira Lewis, etc. And now I’ve narrowed it down to 3 guys (Nesmith, Bey, Williams).

Darren Van Blois
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

I think most people have Okoro in the top 10. Not sure, but I’m getting a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist feel with him. Why do you like him so much?

Christopher Hauck
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

Agree, if Okoro is somehow there at 12 – that’s a great risk to take.

Ralph Lawrence Reyes
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

I love Okoro. I just think he won’t be available with the Kings pick. Surely he’s top 10 probably top 5.

Bobby Kennedy
9 days ago
Reply to  Chent

I keep coming back to Jalen Smith. Wherever he is taken, he’s going to be one of the big steals of the draft.

Vincent Serrato
9 days ago
Reply to  TheBufferZone

Yea, his game translates well, look how hard its been to find a shooting Center, and there is one that will be available in the draft albeit limited in his game. Im fine with a Center who cam shoot, block shots, and rebound.

Darren Van Blois
8 days ago
Reply to  Chent

Late question on this thread. Why did you stop favoring R.J. Hampton? I had been overlooking him, but I just did a deeper dive on him, and he moved way up my board. Love his handles. Athleticism is there. Tall for a pg. improved over the year in New Zealand. With an improved shot, I think he could be special.

Vincent Serrato
7 days ago
Reply to  eddie41

I still like Hampton, our team is lacking a player like him, but I have soured a bit on him. He has potential but for whatever reason he started reminding me of Austin Rivers in college, not good enough as a ball handler/shooter/passer to operate in a lead guard capacity, if he’s not a lead guard what is he?

Vincent Serrato
7 days ago
Reply to  Chent

He could be a secondary ball handler but he would need to prove he can shoot, and im not sure he can be a good shooter. I still would consider him.

Darren Van Blois
7 days ago
Reply to  Chent

Sam Vecine for the Athletic wrote a recent article about his improved shooting. He’s been working out with Mike Miller for shooting, another known trainer and I think I saw he’s also been working out with Penny Hardaway. There’s also a 30 minute video with Mike Schmitz, showing some improvements on defensive technique and some examples of playmaking that you normally see from a lead guard. Where we all are struggling to find top talents at 12, Hampton could be one. His height helps with potential versatility. His speed and athleticism appears nba-level. He’s pretty smooth also and his yo-yo handle reminds me of a young OJ Mayo. Fox, Bogi and Hampton could be a dynamic guard rotation.

Darren Van Blois
9 days ago

meh. I get how he’s projected to go between 10 and 15 in this year’s draft, but he appears to be more a 4 than a 3. Between him and Bey, I think Bey would be a better fit, as Bey is more a 3 who I think could play well alongside Fox and Bogdan (ie, not asking him to do much playmaking). But honestly, compare both these players to Naji Marshall, a projected 2nd rounder who plays point forward, sort of like Tyreke Evans or Hedo Turkoglu. If we’re talking about fit (the article mentions pairing with Bagley), I think a point forward could do wonders for the offense next to floor spacers like Hield and Barnes, and Bogi and Bjelica, etc.

Darren Van Blois
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

I’m specifically talking about defense where I think Bey has quicker feet to guard on the perimeter. I think the 2nd tier of players goes from about 7 to 50, making the ones at the top seem disappointing and the ones at the bottom steals. If someone is clearly above the rest at #12, then they should probably take the BPA, but otherwise I think other factors can be considered like need and uniqueness. Kings need playmakers, especially next to Hield and Barnes. Thus Naji Marshall deserves a look. As for uniqueness, how many point forwards are in the draft?

Adam Dieter
9 days ago

He seems like your classic tweener, if that is even a thing anymore in today’s NBA. He seems a bit too heavy footed to guard quicker perimeter SFs and bit but undersized for legit PFs. He appears to have the strength, but not the length to clean the glass. In the way you described his quads and defensive instincts I got a strong OG Anunoby vibe, or maybe a bigger Justice Winslow lite. Would they be a fair comp? They too are kind of a tweener in the PF/SF way.

Greg R.
9 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Seems like a tweener on a Fox-lead team would just be the bigger position. McNair talked about playing the style that best fits our personnel, which, on a team where Fox is the only true core piece, means playing fast. By that measurement, a tweener 3-4 should be a true four for us.

Christopher Hauck
9 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

If you have an hour and eleven minutes to spare, here’s a cut of his plays on both sides of the ball (didn’t make this, but watched it):

I think the Tweener issue is real here. Anunoby has very strong lateral speed and the strength to guard bigger players. Winslow is similar, though not quite as quick laterally I believe as Anunoby.

Williams is sort of the opposite. He’s sort of Harrison Barnes with some added height / springiness, but worse lateral speed / BBIQ. He should be fine guarding the SF/PF hybrids and probably virtually all PFs. But I think it’s a very real question if he’ll be able to guard perimeter players enough to be the type of impact defender that justifies taking a mostly catch and shoot offensive player that high.

William Stroud
9 days ago

I like his combination of physical gifts and BBIQ. The necessary building blocks are there– If he keeps an aggressive mentality, an NBA player development staff will help him put the pieces together.

I see the Spurs grabbing him at 11 if he’s still on the board.

Greg R.
9 days ago
Reply to  WillyTrill

I see him to the spurs so much. I do wonder though if the spurs go for as much of an immediate impact guy as they can find, only because of Popovich. It feels weird to have a rebuilding team under the tutelage of a coach on the downswing, or at least should be. I don’t think there is any doubt that with the spurs should be doing is hitting the reset button. Now they are a smart franchise, but I wonder if they try to stay competitive a little longer

Adam Dieter
9 days ago
Reply to  MaybeNextYear

I feel their future comes down to DeRozan and his player option. I’m sure they have a sense of what he is going to do. If he opts out, I feel they should let him walk and go with the full rebuild. There really is no point in the Spurs giving him a fat contract on the wrong side of 30.

They have some nice expiring deals in Aldridge, Gay, and Mills. If I were GMing that team I’d look to move them for future assets and build around their young guard core of Murray, White, and Walker. From that, Williams might the perfect piece for them.

andy sims
9 days ago
Reply to  WillyTrill

Nothing more important than BBIQ.

Last edited 9 days ago by andy_sims
Christopher Hauck
9 days ago

Great, great write up. Well worth the read. I’ve gotten at least a little more positive on Williams over time. I think you hit on a lot of the good aspects – he’s a willing passer, he should be a great spot up shooter (high FT and form are usually telling signs), is surprisingly adept in some P&R and shooting off the dribble situations, is a great cutter, and has defensive upside. If you see his interviews, he also comes off as thoughtful and grounded, so there is certainly hope he can develop and learn.

But I think we may disagree slightly on how raw he is. His awareness on both sides of the floor seems pretty mediocre. At times, he has great highlight moves on D where he seems to anticipate and read the opposing offense very well and you can see the potential, but he also has Bagley’s tendency to drift into the middle to try to help and loses his man a lot.

While he’s also likely to be a good shooter, right now he’s pretty limited to catch and shoot situations. He doesn’t really relocate, shoot off screens, or shoot off other movement. There’s still a role for that type of player, but it does limit how you can use him offensively or his ability to play in a motion / read-and-react offense. And while he does shoot well off the dribble, he’s one of those guys who has a bit of a slow pull up, so I do wonder how easily that will translate against NBA defenders.

And I love the videos and insights on his D and hips, but I would note, he also only seems to have just solid lateral speed. He’ll get some very good weakside blocks, can close straight-line space to contest shots quickly, and should be able to guard the SF / PF hybrids. But I do wonder how he’ll do in general against PGs, SGs, and SFs with any speed (Synergy has him as 35th percentile in isolation D).

Adding to all of this (and the awareness), he really doesn’t make much of an impact on the court right now.

Pretty much all of his advanced numbers are poor for a top prospect:

BPM: 5.5 (2.3 off., 3.5 def.) [reference: Vassell 10.2, Nesmith 9.7, Bey 8.1, Green 6.9]
WS: 2.5 [reference: Vassell 4.7, Nesmith 2.6 (~1/2 games), Bey 4.5, Green 3.8]
Net rating: 12 [reference: Vassell 33, Nesmith 21, Bey 20, Green 17]

I think this does go back to awareness and that he doesn’t really know how to assert himself or use great judgement.

Again, this shows up in his performance against ranked teams (top 25). In the 5 games he played against ranked teams this year, he averaged:

FG: 41%
3P: 0%
FT: 30%

PTS: 6.4
REB: 3.2
AST: 0.6
STL: 1.4
BLK: 1.6
TO: 1.8
A/T: 0.3

And this isn’t a matter of one bad game either, his lines were:

Louisville: 2-5 FG, 11-4-1
Duke: 2-9 FG, 7-2-0
Louisville: 1-4 FG, 2-3-1
Tennessee: 4-6 FG, 8-2-1
Florida: 2-4 FG, 4-5-0

Man, I see the upside. And every bit of great research you do makes me feel a little glimmer of hope for him. And my bias is towards more skilled and high basketball IQ guys, so my misses have been guys like Jaylen Brown and Bam and I can 100% see Williams being the type of player to have a nice development curve.

But he is raw. He is probably going to be a big negative on the court next year and I think may really have to develop him for awhile. Now this isn’t a great draft, so maybe you can argue the risk is worth the reward at #12. But as of now, I’d have a hard time taking that risk if someone like Vassell or Nesmith was on the board.

Final note: This got way longer than I was expecting to type. All of this is out of fun exploration and love our discussions here and on Twitter. So again, great write up. This is very well done and thought-provoking analysis, which I think forces even someone who is not keen on Williams to re-think my assumptions.

Christopher Hauck
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

Can’t wait for the analysis and what should be another fun discussion there.

Ralph Lawrence Reyes
9 days ago
Reply to  Bryant

Pretty sure if you watched Nesmith’s YT clip, it looks like you’re watching Buddy Hield.

Christopher Hauck
9 days ago
Reply to  RAP87

That’s part of what I like about him, but others will not. Buddy from two years ago was fantastic and we just saw Duncan Robinson play a key role on a finals team.

Nesmith is in many ways a Buddy clone (good and bad), but he’s 8 years younger and is 2 inches taller with a 3 inch longer wingspan.. He also arguably has better lateral speed and sets far better screens. All while costing about 1/7th of what Hield does.

And from what I have read he supposedly has a great work ethic (ESPN’s quote is: “Lauded for his work ethic and leadership.”)

Now there’s question marks and he might not develop like Buddy. However, getting a taller, longer, younger, cheaper, better defensive version of Buddy is a great building block at #12.

I understand for some people that won’t be sexy enough and they will want to swing for the fences with someone like Williams or Poku. And I wouldn’t mind that (especially Poku). However, hitting a solid double and accumulating assets is a great way to start building a team up.

If this worked out, then it also makes it easier for us to trade Hield, even if we like him and the role he plays. He could bring back additional value, while cutting future salary.

Ralph Lawrence Reyes
9 days ago
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Agreed! Nesmith is actually my pick for the Kings at 12. Excellent shooter, much taller and a much better team defender than Buddy. He can play both guard and wing positions. And as you mentioned he is much cheaper and 8 years younger than Hield. The only concern I have is his injury history which I believe is a stress fracture in his right foot. If he can show he is healthy and a clean bill of health, he would be my pick.

Christopher Hauck
9 days ago
Reply to  RAP87

Agreed on all counts. I will say I don’t 100% know he’s my pick yet, but I think he’s on the short list and probably the best of who will be available.

And his foot fracture is nothing to take too lightly, but I believe that’s his only big injury and so unless the professionals feel it is a red flag, I’m inclined given my lack of medical expertise to default to it being a fluky injury on a player young enough to fully recover.

Adam Dieter
8 days ago
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I think drafting Nesmith would be a strong indicator to how the Kings see the future of Buddy and Bogi. IMO, Nesmith is a catch and shot SG in the NBA, not a SF. I don’t think he has the defensive chops to guard bigger SF.

As mentioned above, he has the Duncan Robinson and Klay Thompson type of game. He’s not an exceptional at getting to the line, passing or rebounding and is best used on the perimeter would he should be taking the vast majority of his shots.

Christopher Hauck
8 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Fully agree with you on all counts. Buddy, Bogi, and Nesmith seems like a lot of assets and money invested in SG / some smaller lineup SF.

I think if you draft Nesmith, you likely are moving on from Buddy or Bogi. Makes sense if the FO wants to shed some future cap commitments this year and build up with a more open cap.

I think you’d want to use him how you described. Constantly moving perimeter player (similar to how Hield was used two years ago) with just enough ball handling skill to do straight line drives or to take advantage of switches / opportunistic matchups. And he’s primarily a SG who might play some SF in the right matchup / lineup (could probably guard SFs better than Bogi), but you would not want to rely on him as a SF.

Adam Dieter
8 days ago
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Also, if he really is as good a shooter as his college numbers indicate, he would likely be gone before #12. I could see ATL swinging for him at #6. He and Trae Young could become the Curry and Klay of the East.

Richie J
9 days ago
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I believe that Fan Posts aren’t a thing on TKH yet, so are you gonna do your models this year & if so, are you gonna release them in the comments?

Christopher Hauck
9 days ago
Reply to  richie88

Yes, in the middle of them right now. Have already been in contact with TKH and it looks like they are going to publish it as an article. Hoping to have everything finished in ~2 weeks.

Bobby Kennedy
9 days ago

Great breakdown, Bryant! I would love to see one of these on Jalen Smith. He’s a unicorn with how many Blocks, 3-Pointers, & Rebounds he gets.

Adam Dieter
8 days ago

OT: The Houston blow up begins.

andy sims
8 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Maybe he’d enjoy working with McNair again, in a consultant role.

Christopher Hauck
8 days ago
Reply to  andy_sims

Agree. Posted that on Twitter. I would imagine that after everything Morey has been through he’d like to take this season off.

However, after a year of rest and family time, I could see Morey as a consultant unless he’s keen to take over another franchise.

Parker Wells
8 days ago
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I wonder how much the Hong Kong tweet factored in his decision to leave the Rockets. That team is the center of the vast majority of China’s NBA fandom.

Rory Cornell
8 days ago
Reply to  andy_sims

The Kings should just make Bornn, Hinkie and Morey into an analytics consultant voltron. Tell them they don’t have to even work that hard just do a zoom once a week and wear Kings gear whenever they’re doing a public speaking event. It’s more than Shaq does, and he’s an owner.

Ralph Lawrence Reyes
8 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Wow! One could wonder if Mcnair could have been the one promoted to replace Morey if he have not take the Kings job. It looks like they are replacing Morey with one of their own in Rafael Stone.

Adam Dieter
8 days ago
Reply to  RAP87

He likely would have been, but he would be left with zero future assets, two aging maxed players, and a broke owner. Houston is a wasteland right now.
I think he got out while he could after seeing the writing on the wall.

Last edited 8 days ago by Adamsite
Ralph Lawrence Reyes
8 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

Agreed! If they are indeed rebuilding, I can see the Knicks calling Houston for either Harden or Westbrook. I wouldn’t mind taking Covington off their hands.

Adam Dieter
8 days ago
Reply to  RAP87

So would I. I’ve been thinking about a Holmes and Parker for Covington swap. It saves Houston some money and helps clear their future cap.

Rory Cornell
8 days ago
Reply to  Adamsite

(“I’m Coming Home” playing gently in the background)

andy sims
8 days ago

Holy shit, Daryl Morey is out in Houston.

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