We have a few more days before Sacramento Kings basketball resumes on Thursday, February 22nd. Thanks to the All-Star snubs, the Kings (with the exception of Keegan Murray, who played in the Rising Stars game) get to enjoy a full week of rest and recovery before entering the home stretch of the season. Sacramento has 28 games remaining in the regular season, and zero margin for error down the stretch. At 31-23 the Kings currently sit 8th in the Western Conference. If the season ended today the Kings would host the Los Angeles Lakers for a play-in game*.
*Note: This is incorrect. In the play-in, 7 and 8 play first, followed by the loser playing the winner of the 9/10 game. The Kings would currently play Dallas, and then if they lost they would play either the Lakers or Warriors.
At last year’s All Star break the Kings were 32-25, but last season that was good enough for 3rd in the West. The Kings may not be worse this year (although net ratings would beg to differ), but the West is stronger. While pundits expected Sacramento to be less healthy this season, and therefor worse, the reality has instead been that the rest of the West has been healthier and better. Hopefully the Kings can replicate last season’s late-season success and vault themselves into the 6th seed or higher.
Given the up-and-down nature of Sacramento’s play this season, the idea of a play-in game terrifies me. I simply do not trust the Kings to show up and execute when needed. Could they? Absolutely. But they could just as easily disappear.
How are you feeling as we enter the home stretch of the season? Let us know in the comments.
They just need to go .500 to hit the over for win total. Let’s go fellas!
Going to need Fox basically play like he did to begin the season, find that higher gear again.
Barnes and Huerter need to be consistently average to good, no long slumps and disappearing acts.
Keegan lock down defense and hit his shots.
And the damn bench needs to find some type of consistency.
If those things happen on a regular basis, then all should be good and looking at the 5 or 6 seed.
Those games in Houston (2), Charlotte and Portland where we crapped the bed loom pretty large right about now. It happens every year.
Basically. Every game matters in a season, whether it’s the 1st week or the last week.
Thank you! Every year somebody says “you can’t win them all”. That may be true, but you can try hard in all 82 games. This team isn’t good enough to just roll the ball out and win.
Fox gonna have to go back to 4th quarter Fox. And Keegan, for the love of god, please get more aggressive/consistent on O. I mean, figure it out already or Brown help this.
I feel like folks are a bit underwhelmed by Keegan, but he is averaging more MPG, PPG, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and has a better FG%. And that doesn’t even take into consideration his monumental growth on the defensive end. The only thing that has slipped is his 3pt%. One thing I think gets overlooked is he has nearly doubled his 2pt attempts, and that comes from attacking the paint.
Is it really fair for anyone to criticize hime, or are we expecting him to put up all-star numbers while being 3rd fiddle?
It’s not really about numbers with KM, he just needs to be more aggressive. We need him to be more aggressive on O to have a chance at landing a top 6 seed.
More aggressive how? He’s 3rd on shot attempts ahead of even Monk, who rarely passes up an opportunity to score. I feel his numbers show a definite uptick in offensive production from last season. Is it just the eyeball test or the flow of his game that says he isn’t aggressive?
How many times have I seen in the fourth quarter Keegan doesn’t shoot.
He disappears, and that’s OK, but we’re talking about how they are going to make the playoffs.
Also, I think you can point out Keegan’s lack of aggression and still be aware as I am, that he’s improved everyone else.
But if he’s teams third option, he needs to start stepping up more. I also think Mike Brown could help them by setting up more options for him.
and when Fox is off his game, Keegan should be the one picking up some of the scoring slack. I mean they didn’t trade in for Pascal Siakam, so it’s time to expect a little more out of him aggression wise.
He doesn’t shoot enough in the 4th quarter because they don’t look for him enough.
Criticism might not be fair but he’s been crowned the 3rd star and he just hasn’t shown enough consistency. Just look at his stats the last 10 games and it’s not just that. Eye test says he’s not even the 3rd fiddle. He’ll take 7 shots in the first quarter and then we won’t see much after that so yes, while he’s taking more shots, he’s not doing it throughout the game. If he and MB don’t figure it out, we’re looking like those joe Johnson atlanta teams.
Yeah that’s why I said he needs to be more aggressive. He’s an older second year player. The time is now to step up and be more assertive creating on offense and doing more than spot up 3’s.
He’s doubled his 2pt attempts this season and is taking 3 more shots per game! He is showing he’s more than a 3pt shooter….AND HE’S THE BEST DEFENDER ON THE TEAM.
The numbers don’t support the notion he’s not assertive enough. There are only so many average shots per game. If he’s gonna get more shots it’s going to come at the cost of someone else. He’s not going to take them away from Fox or Sabonis, both of whom have increased their attempts by 1 this season. Huerter’s shot are down, at the expense of Fox, Sabonis, and Keegan taking a full half of the team’s attempts.
So what exactly do you want him to be more assertive with?
Obviously like this…
I really think it’s an optics thing. His game is emotionless, smooth without overt athleticism. It’s an old man type game in the mold of Rudy Gay or Tim Duncan as opposed someone who is
jumping out of the gym on highlight reels and hyping the crowd.
Basically he takes layups instead of throwing down windmills.
This season it almost seems like the Kings are encouraging him to take less 3s so that he has to develop the rest of his offensive game, which in the long run is probably better for him.
When I pitched, coaches would tell us every so often that we couldn’t throw a certain pitch during intrasquads. We had to use the ones that weren’t as good because I might not always have that go to pitch working in a game. That’s what Keegan is working on, imo. Don’t just rely on the 3, develop other shots.
Agreed. He game has expanded. He’s taking a lot more 2 pt attempts including from the mid-range and being more aggressive taking it to the rim. Last year he looked really timid off the dribble and often got his shot blocked at the rim. It hasn’t been the same this year.
In terms of his 3pt shot not falling as well as last season, I’d imagine teams are keying in home more, especially on the DHO where he made hay last season. The DHO for everyone isn’t as productive as last season. This year it’s been spray threes from Domas as opposed to the handoffs.
It is obvious to me that Keegan is not stepping up or being aggressive in end of game situations. And when needed.
I don’t care what the numbers say you can see it just by watching with your eyes. He disappears for big part of the game. If you can’t see that I don’t know what to tell. Ya.
Keegan is a terrific 2nd year player and has the stats to prove it . Maybe your eye test can’t be relied upon . His 2nd year stats are better than Pega, O G Anunoby and Lari Markennton . There is that and all of these players were attacked in the same manner which has proven to be wrong .
He doesn’t get enough touches in the 4th quarter. That’s not his fault.
I think the 3rd option should be able to create a bucket when defenses take away Fox and Sabonis whether it’s off the bounce for a shot or creating for someone else. This was HB’s role last year. How many times did we see HB get in the post or draw a foul when things get stagnate? I don’t have the stats to back this up but I wouldn’t be surprised if HB was also the top defender on the team last year as well.
I agree fully.
How many times a game does Keegan catch a pass and IMMEDIATELY look like he wants no part of the ball. Scared to dribble, and not wide open for a shot, he dumps the ball off as fast as possible. Everybody likes good, crisp ball movement, this isn’t that.
All good points but I think it’s more than fair for me to want him to be more aggressive. That’s within his control. Or at least be more aggressive one out of every three games. Not one out of every 10 games.
Also, I was saying that Keegan needs to do this if the kings want to make the playoffs this year. Or at least probably.
If he can have a 43-point game and a few in the 30s, he’s certainly capable of averaging 20 points per game. Would like to see him with that confident feel he had in those games. If the shots are going down, his teammates will find him and all the worries about him disappearing in the fourth quarter will go away.
Based on the stats and good points posted above I wonder if your issue with Keegs is not that he’s not playing aggressively but that he doesn’t look to be playing more aggressively
PS………..are you giving him any credit for playing defense…..aggressively ?
Another reason I think it makes too much sense to move Barnes to the bench for Lyles. It should give Keegan even more looks as Lyles role would be spot up shooter and def/reb even more so then Barnes who does get iso/offense ran for him at times.
he is averaging 10% more minutes, and all his stats are up about 10%, save for rebounds, which didn’t go up barely at all, and steals which are up a nice 33%. He had a strong rookie season, and I think it’s fair to expect his offense to have shown more improvement than just what is coming from more minutes.
You can use per 36 to see all his counting stats are up slightly. He has taken on greater responsibility on defense as well.
Is the West really better or is it just healthy (sans Memphis)? From what I recall, the Kings had some of the best health in the league last season while the rest of the West, especially the Pacific Division, was riddled with injuries. The Kings still remain healthy this year (Sabonis hasn’t missed a game) but so has everyone else.
IMO, finishing last season with 48 wins and a 3rd seed is quite an anomaly. That many wins normally lands you farther down the standings. For example, in the previous season it would have placed the Kings in a tie for the 6 seed and in the last 82 games season before that, a tie for 8th.
All in all, the surging Lakers and Warriors squads give me serious concern about the Kings making the playoffs. The Mavs and Suns got better at the deadline and the Kings aren’t catching the the current top 4 seeds. My gut says says the Kings are going to finish 9th-10th and are going to face one of the Lakers or Warriors (maybe both) in the play-in.
I have zero confidence in the Kings as a play-in team against the likes of those two teams.
Pretty apt point about the West being healthier. Specifically LaC and NoP. But you also have the ememrgence of OkC and Minny as top four seeds. It’s a different landscape this season.
Getting a top 6 seed is imperative. I think we stay healthier than the Suns and NoP and I think the Mavs are a play-in team. I think the duds and lakers hover around .500.
So I’m still confident we nab the sixth seed.
It’s going to be tough but it can happen. Needs some help along the way. Definitely can not lose to andy teams lower and knock off some others above them.
I feel like they could win or lose any game by 20, regardless of the opponent. We could win the right first round matchup and get to the conference semis. We could lose in the play-in. I can see either path resulting in another run it back summer for Monte and co. I think we will learn a lot about the front office this summer.
what would a second consecutive summer of running it back tell us that the first one didn’t?
The pessimism is palpable.
If we’ll just average 211 points per game I think we will be fine.
If only Sacramento had All-Stars, I’d agree….
Only problem is that the opposition would probably be averaging 230 ppg.
Not if they play defense like they can. Has to be constant not here and there. Being healthy is probably the biggest reason.
Three moves might give the Kings some oomph toward the playoffs. 1) Use Vezenkov 10 minutes a game to get him comfortable. Use 2) Jordan Farmer and/or 3) Mason Jones as shooting guard behind Huerter. They can be the dynamic scorers that Davion Mitchell is not.
Jordan FORD!!!!
And I was thinking…….Is he still around?
Keegan needs to step up.
He’s been awful beyond the arc.
I am going to speculate as a possibly irrational enthusiast. Gone are the worries if the Kings will 41 or better. Gone is the drought. But this season is a tough one to figure out. It’s a Sydney Pollack painting. Splatter or substance?
GM McNair and Coach Brown both had confidence that the squad from last seasons’ overachievements was going to coalesce into a more solid, more coordinated and better functioning team as a stable unit. No jarring trades, no roster shuffling, not even a tweak.
We have seen that unit perform just as hoped but inconsistently. De’Aaron’s first 30 games produced talk of MVP consideration ’round these parts. Domas’ last 38 games are record breaking in their stalwart consistency. Keegan Murray may not be the 3 point marksman he was (also record breaking) last season – down from the stellar .411 (!) to a mediocre .350, but his points, rebound, assists, FT%, steals, blocks, FG% and eFG% are all higher and he is this team’s primary defensive stopper. He’s better. That’s Sac’s Big 3. Formulative perhaps – but it’s an upper level 3 – top 10?
Barnes, now in his 12 season, has not missed a game this season, which adds to his 82 game presence last season. Kevin Huerter, who experienced some non-starter time, is a better player by the eye test (my eyes). Malik Monk – vying for 6th Man honors.
Can they put it all together at the same time, game after game, night after night as a push for the 5th/6th spot looms? It will take consistency. I think they have it in them, and I think they do as well.
I’m not going to expect that they go 20-8 for a 50 win season. And I don’t think they need that number to be in the Top 6. But a repeat to 48 (18-10) or .647 is within reasonable reach, given their schedule, IMHO. I’ll be watching (likely through gaps in my fingers)
Nice assessment of where we’re at.
I don’t get the gloom and doom. This team is what it is and with a little consistency can make trouble down the stretch.
I still see a top 6 seeed and the 2nd round.
Jackson Pollack not Sydney Pollack (film director) – sheesh!
25-3
looking forward to it. bring it on.
If the kings can continue at their current pace, they’ll go 16-12 over the back uhhhh 28.
If they can push that up to 18-10, I think that secures pretty easily a top 6 berth. I will say that the biggest thing for me is that there’s no one in the west other than NOP or LAC that I would dread facing in round 1 and I doubt they climb up high enough to make that happen. We’ve had the number of the Mavs and Nuggets. We’ve played competitively against the Suns, OKC, and T’Wolves including some big wins (and a couple big collapses!) I think the only issue in the play-in would be unfavorable calls against GSW and LAL, but if we can’t beat those teams outright, we really don’t deserve to advance. The only true Juggernaut this year is Boston, and everyone else we’ve played that we might see come playoff time, we have played well enough to make an entertaining series or two of it.
And all of that is true while we still haven’t played our best basketball this year it seems. Sometimes it’s our top 2-3 guys playing well with no bench. Sometimes Fox or Keegan will disappear for a stretch. But we’re deep enough that I feel like we can find key contributors for any matchup. I think Fox and Domas are as good or better than nearly any duo at their peak.
And that’s just this year. I think our asset chest is more intriguing next year with Barnes and Huerter on shorter contracts, the cap crunch on tax payers, and our full slate of draft picks.
Except their “current” pace (over the last 10 games) is .500.
Same for Denver. Do you think they’re going .500 the rest of the way? Extend that back just 3 games and you’re looking at a team that goes 8-5 (slightly better than season win pct!) 10 games is a small sample size and I’ll roll with the 60ish game sample size.
Forgive the quibbling, but wouldn’t the Mavericks host us for a play-in if the season ended today? Aren’t the play-ins 7v8 and 9v10 to start with?
Sign Sabrina Ionescu immediately and feed her in the corner and at the high elbow.
Kings win the West.
I am feeling confident. Feels like the team is actually playing better defense more often than they did last year. The difference has been their offense has been worse / less consistent. Feel like they will put both together at some point. Plus the step up in intensity in playoffs shouldn’t be so overwhelming as they have shown more often they can do both.
Team just doesn’t have that much top-tier talent. Two All-Star caliber guys are nice but beyond that you only have Monk and Keeg, and even they are inconsistent. The rest of the guys are pretty average, some nights their good and others they disappear. They need more talent and it ain’t comin this year, 7-8 seed probably, I think they will make playoffs, and then lose in first round again. It’s essentially the same team so not surprising the end result will be the same.
They need 7-8 good guys, like a couple more on the Monk/Keeg level and one or two really solid role players. Not gonna be elite missing 3-4 more key pieces.
We have to go 18 and 10 minimum to finish at 49-33 and be a top 6 seed. We have 17 home games and 11 road games remaining so we have to protect home court and split the road games. I predict we go 12-5 at home and 6-5 on the road to land the 6th seed. We can’t have anymore slip ups against bad teams and I truly beleive it might take 50 wins to solidify a top 6th seed and avoid the play-in.
When will Adam Silver modify the play-in qualification ?
i mean, for example, if there is obvious gap between the 8th seed and the 9th seed, then no need to play those “play-in” game, as it’s too unfair for the 8th seed.
(Of course I understand every match worths lots of money)
our beloved Cash Considerations wears more suits than uniforms
But……the dude is usually very well dressed
OT: Interesting article on NBA Local Market Viewership by Sports Business Journal. It’s a short 2-3 min read, reporting that Sacramento is one of 20 NBA teams whose viewership is up from last year. I thought this was the most interesting part:
My takeaway: Regardless of how one might feel about it, in terms of generating interest and more loyal viewers earlier in the NBA season, the IST worked and it’s not going anywhere.
Until the novelty wears off and people realize it doesn’t really mean anything except a cash grab for the players.
Still just regular season games that count towards the overall record.
I personally didn’t watch any of the IST games, including the Kings. The courts were enough of a turn off. And like Hobby says, within a few years the novelty will wear off and no one will care. Just because the Play-in has worked, doesn’t mean the IST will work long term.
My guess is eventually the NBA adds more gimmicks to the IST to keep it afloat.
the gimmick will be to bestow meaningfulness to these otherwise “please watch us” contests.
Fill in the blank:
In addition to $500,000 to the roster and coaches, the winner of the World B. Free Trophy (yes, I made that up) will win ________
A new Car!
And then they’ll ease the qualifying criteria…
I liked the IST. Added some interest to the early season.
In the future I’d run it a bit longer and have the semis on All-Star Friday, Saturday is for the All-Stars, they have to compete in 1 or more event and then the IST Finals is on Sunday. Could have rising stars games on Sunday before the IST Final.
Then the whole league gets a week off.
I was thinking along the same lines. I enjoyed the IST and think having the semi’s and final on all star weekend would be a good idea. The one thing I didn’t like about the IST was just as it was gaining traction in my fandom it was over.
I don’t think holding the finals during the All Star weekend (Which I haven’t watched for years except last years game which I watched for about 10 minutes to see both Domas and Fox on the court) would damage the outcome as most fan’s team would already be out of the competition.
The fact that the players needed a monetary incentive to give a crap early in the season is an issue. These dudes are supposed to be playing hard to try and win games to make the playoffs, but
I just don’t think many of the players really care about the game.
To reach last year’s win total, they need to go 17-11 the rest of the way. They have to play consistently to do that, but it’s certainly possible. Not sure where 48 wins lands them in the standings this year, but I suspect top six. I suppose if the team is really as good and well-coached as they want us to believe, they could just as easily go 19-9 the rest of the season, and 50 wins would feel pretty good for this season. However, I can also see the team slipping to 14-14, and 45 wins likely lands you in the 7-9 range. That’s just a few stupid losses to teams they lost to like Detroit and Charlotte to make that difference. So, to Greg’s point, there is little room for error and no room for not being up for every game against every team. It’s crazy what a range of 45-50 wins could mean in the standings.
The old teams in the running in the top ten of the West (LAC, LAL, GSW, PHX) have played as well as they possibly can of late. But eventually their injury luck will wane and the younger teams like the Kings will have the upper hand. LAL, GSW and PHX in particular are so top heavy with little depth that they’ll run out of steam, you can throw DAL into that group as well.
I’m choosing to believe they will peak at the right time and surprise us all. I’m a fan after all, and it’s that hope that keeps me going. See you Thursday.
And how sour and salty will we all be should they fall to Wemby and Pop to start off this path to the playoffs?
“it’s the first game back and they haven’t got their rhythm in sync”
I’m a fan too, and as a long term Kings fan, I am chronically conflicted with optimism and pessimism as the comedy and tragedy of this Sacramento franchise has groomed me to be.
…so just have fun.
words to fan by
Funny thing. If we continue our current home and road win percentages for the rest of the season we’ll win 11 at home and 6 on the road and finish up 48-34.
I wonder, would that considered a success? The same record as last season, yet Sabonis, Fox, Keegan, and Monk are having the best year yet of their careers.
With a healthier an improved West? Maybe. If that record leads to a first round win, then Yes for sure. If it leads to a first round loss or a play-in fail, then No.
Agreed.
When I looked at their remaining games I felt like their SOS was pretty weak, but I guess they have the 8th hardest remaining schedule. I feel disproportionately optimistic. I don’t think we’ve seen the best from this team yet. The defense has improved from last year, while the offense has been much less consistent. I’m not sure why, other than teams scheming differently maybe? Kings are relying less on the DHO and more on the PnR and shooting has gotten generally worse from beyond the arc. Nonetheless, I think the team will come around as they’ve shown to be capable of. The team has some bad matchups, but I think they’ll end up 5 or 6 seed at the end of the day. I think the top 4 are set at this point and the Kings are the best of the rest.
I think teams have adjusted to the Sabonis DHO, so like you said, the Kings have gone to different sets that haven’t been as successful.
I don’ know where to find the data but I’d like to see Sabonis’ assists off the DHO from last year to this year.
Cleaning the Glass? Seems like something they would have.
Also, maybe a TKH article about the offense type and what is working or not working as well this season compared to last season…
Nba.com has team DHO stats. The Kings are shooting slightly more off DHOs per game, 10.2 possessions up to 11.3, with less efficiency, 1.07 PPP down to 1.00 PPP.
Interesting. It doesn’t feel like it. Last year I was wanting them to run PnR with Holmes which was so effective the year prior with his push shot and rim running. And they abandoned it (and Holmes altogether). This year it seems Monk is running PnR constantly and we don’t see the DHO at all unless Sabonis is in the game. And it feels like they have the touch the paint and spray mentality a lot more this year than last, or Fox jacking up early 3s when not challenged. I guess my feelings are all wrong. Data don’t lie.
Yeah, interesting. I see less DHO than last season, but I guess my vision is poor.
0 margin for error? 28 games? Did you remember you were writing about the Kings? 0 margin for error?…………..We are doomed!!!
Matt Barnes out… Finally
Hope this means we get Kenny Thomas back.
Badge Legend