As the Sacramento Kings dropped their fourth game in a row on Monday evening, a familiar debate euprted throughout the fan base with the same old tried and true questions being asked. Should the Kings sell off the veterans for draft assets and young players? Is it appropriate to enter a mini-rebuild with the way De’Aaron Fox is playing? Would it be wise to push for the playoffs or the play-in tournament to get these kids some postseason experience, break the streak, and hopefully one day become an attractive destination for free agents?
Those questions, while highly relevant and interesting to discuss, tend to fade away when considering Sacramento’s plan heading into the season. They were designed to lose – and to lose a lot. That assertion may seem incredibly bold with the Kings having recently come off of a stretch in which they won seven of eight games, and those who vehemently oppose such a strategy may scoff at the idea that Monte McNair would purposefully create a bad team, but the evidence is glaring when studying both the moves that were made this offseason, and those that weren’t.
Typically, if an organization really wants to win, they retain all of their best players whenever possible, especially ones who can effectively play multiple positions. The Kings failed to do so with Bogdan Bogdanovic in November. Their aborted trade with the Milwaukee Bucks would have brought back a nice third-year player in Donte DiVincenzo, but that by no means was a win-now transaction, nor was the rumored non-trade with the Atlanta Hawks for a future first round pick. Once the Bucks deal was blown up, Monte McNair allowed Bogdanovic to walk with zero compensation, rather than simply paying a key contributor a slightly inflated $18 million per year. In the post-trade press conference, McNair cited future flexibility as the primary reason for letting Bogi go, not exactly the priority for most wannabe playoff contenders.
Of course, Bogdanovic’s departure in and of itself isn’t enough to prove McNair’s mini-tank. Management had no connection with Bogdanovic, and with Tyrese Haliburton’s recent addition, it’s certainly not unheard of for new General Managers to unload previous players to open up room for their guys. However, the Bogdanovic decision was just the first of many lose-now moves by Sacramento’s new front office over the last few months.
Heading into the 2020 offseason, the Kings were short on cap space after Vlade Divac’s half-decade of generous donations to over-the-hill veterans, but they still had two spending tools at their disposal, the standard non-taxpayer mid-level exception, worth about $9.8 million, and the bi-annual exception, which came in at around $4 million. The BAE is only available in years in which a particular team didn’t utilize it in the year prior, hence bi-annual, but the MLE renews every season in which the team is eligible. Organizations have the option to drop all of that cash on one player, with a contract of up to three years with 5% annual, non-compounding raises, or the MLE can be split among multiple signees with those same contractual restrictions in place. In November, players such as Serge Ibaka, Montrezl Harrell, Derrick Favors, Jae Crowder, and Tristan Thompson were all acquired through the MLE.
Unlike just about every other team in the league, the Kings did absolutely nothing, other than offer slightly larger deals to their second round selections. Monte McNair left almost $10 million in free spending money on the table, and that exception has no other short-term or long-term value either. It can’t be used in a trade. It can’t be used to take on salary. It can’t be carried over into next season. It’s just gone. Contenders don’t allow that sort of opportunity to pass them by.
Instead of using the MLE to sign a quality contributor or two, the Kings chose to shop the bargain bin of unwanted players and wound up with Hassan Whiteside and Glenn Robinson III on one-year minimum deals, not exactly world-breakers in the NBA. Whiteside, despite starting the majority of the games for the playoff-bound Portland Trail Blazers last year, took the largest salary decrease in the league and signed five days after the offseason began. Robinson was an even more delayed acquisition, as he wasn’t inked to a deal until November 29th, more than a week after the market opened. With their only other relevant free agent situation being the failed Bogdanovic trade and his subsequent exit, the Kings were clearly in no rush to add quality players or to do so quickly.
Monte McNair had no plans to win this season, an understandable stance considering Sacramento’s cap situation and present talent level. The only things keeping the Kings afloat thus far have been De’Aaron Fox’s All-Star level of play, Tyrese Haliburton’s Rookie of the Year type contributions, Richaun Holmes’ career year, and Harrison Barnes’ hot start, but the latter two factors have already begun to fade, and no one else on the roster is good enough to step up and perform at those same early-season levels. The Kings simply aren’t very good, but perhaps some comfort and some answers can be found in the fact that being bad was always the plan.
“Designed to lose” and the Sacramento Kings. Like Baby Giraffes and bad food takes, like Carmichael Dave and tweeting nonstop while on vacation, like Matt George and delusional positivity, like Kayte and telling fans what they don’t understand, they are destined to be together forever!
Monte played his cards right waiting until the deadline to maximize return on assets. Its looking like someone will actually give up an assembly for Barnes now that theres more desperate teams combined with Barnes hot streak, this seemed impossible in the off-season. Buddy buckets is turning it around and it seems as tho we will be able to net a positive asset on him as well, this alone would be a massive homerun! Sell off expiring deals as well as fill-ins to make trades work and we start with a high pick in a top heavy star studded draft and a clean slate next year. Holmes might be the only player worth keeping but if we can get a 1st for him I’d say do it since he doesn’t nessessarily fit our timeline.
IIRC Monte had a reputation of working closely with the coaching staff in Houston on game-to-game decisions. I’m a bit curious about whether he influenced Walton’s rotation decisions these last three gamesstarting GR3 one game, then Jeffries the next, and CoJo last night for instance.
Those last three starting lineups have been odd, but it could also just be Walton’s dumb fuckery.
I thought with Jeffries starting the other day, he might have the coach’s confidence but then he barely played against Brooklyn smh
I’m torn on this. Sure, Monte can afford to sit and wait to see what desperate teams are willing to offer, but you also run the risk of players getting hurt or the bus passing you by.
I look back to the Rudy Gay injury in his final year. There were lots of rumors about moving him by the deadline to get something in return because it was very unlikely he would return. What happened…he got injured before the deadline and the time had passed. He walked for nothing in the offseason.
I also fear that a team like Boston, who is rumored to want Barnes, may move on to other options if the Kings hold out for better return. I still feel they are going to go after Otto Porter Jr since he is an expiring and can deo everything Barnes can do.
To use the old phrase, “strike while the iron is hot” may have come and gone. That stretch of good games may have been the best time to get return on investment.
I hope this isn’t a “we had a better deal 2 days ago” situation.
I get part of that and I can’t believe that GMs get over-excited about a hot stretch from a ninth year vet.
The NBA has a pretty good idea of who Barnes is as a player at this point. Somebody may want him but I doubt they would have paid a premium a week ago based on a stretch of efficiency that was above career norms.
Yeah, I mean, I 100% agree with Adamsite – injuries happen and other players may become available and decrease the demand for Barnes.
However, I think you are correct that these teams have a ton of data, advanced metrics, watch a ton of game film, and really know these players inside and out.
Barring a material change in the player’s performance, I don’t think 95% of modern GMs (and certainly not Ainge) are going to have their views on a player vary too wildly based on a hot or cold shooting streak.
I think with Barnes specifically, those additional two seasons matter. If he was an expiring deal (or even just one additional season), I think there’d be a really nice market for him.
Yup, which is why any team wanting Barnes’ services will likely opt for Otto Porter Jr. instead.
Could be, but Porter will also be a FA (could lose him for nothing), has struggled with injuries, and partially due to the injuries has not been the same player the last two years.
I mean, you could easily be right. But my guess is that Barnes has more value around the league right now. But that opinion and $5 will get you a Starbucks coffee, so take it with a grain of salt.
But a team like Boston, for instance, is already capped out and at the tax line. Porter Jr. gives them just a one year hit as opposed to Barnes who is on the books for two more years. If either of them don’t work out for Boston, Porter Jr. is better gamble because he won’t hurt them long term.
IMO, Boston has their core, they are just looking to guns for hire to get them over the edge.
Bill Simmons had KOC on his show, and talked about this a little bit. Essentially, KOC said the goal should be to land Beal. Either by using the TPE in a Beal deal, or by using it on a player that can be used for salary matching purposes once Beal eventually demands a trade. I thought it was an interesting thought experiment.
Yes. A Bill Simmons trade discussion wherein Boston lands the best player in the deal.
He often has that “thought experiment!”
That’s not really what the discussion was about. Esseentially, they were bagging on the Celtics and saying there isn’t a move out there that would fix Boston’s issues this season. So using it on an expiring deal was basically a waste of the TPE. The example they brought up was a trade for Al Horford since the last year of his contract is only partially guaranteed. He’d improve the team marginally, but could essentially give them a contract that can be used like the TPE down the road.
Agreed, and I think the exception would be if they could send back similar long-term salary, and I assume that isn’t (and shouldn’t be) on McNair’s radar.
Good point.
What about the team that misses out on Porter but clearly in the hunt?
If true only one team is going to get him and where does that put the rest of the teams may be willing to trade for an almost Otter Porter Jr. Boston looks good because they do have some assets to include in a trade.
Agree. I am hoping Boston is interested in him. Would seem to fit their needs well, as he’s a good team defender and shooter, even if he is overpriced for his contributions. They may see a window to win it all this year.
But between their trade exemption, Nesmith, and their draft picks, there would seem to be room to negotiate a good deal for both sides that would allow us to get some future assets, while immediately opening up cap space. That could be used for to take another player into the space for even more assets or could be used to sign player in the offseason.
One thing to not overlook, but I’m also not 100% sure on it either, is if the Kings traded Barnes to Boston and took very little in return, thanks to Boston’s TPE, wouldn’t the Kings themselves create a fat TPE? They’d then have a calendar year to use it.
That’s what I’ve read. Though I can’t remember how big it would be.
Still, it’s potentially a valuable asset apart from the player or picks Barnes may get in return.
My rough math, if the Kings take on a player like Nesmith or whoever on a rookie deal from Boston, they’d have at least a $16M TPE created. That’s substantial, IMO.
Another good point
That is a risk that is also present, however if Monte is planning to clear a majority of the vets by Trade deadline, I would think it would be incredibly unlikley that more than 1 would have a Rudy Gay type scenario. I Personally would stick with Trade Deadline and try to maximize value along the way.
Put it this way, most of the key vets are peaking more now, than when Monte took over (there are exceptions to the rule like NB and Cojo)
and the Rudy Gay thing isn’t really that similar. He injured his Achilles in the last year of his contract, and became an unrestricted free agent that offseason. Barnes and Buddy still have multiple years remaining on their contracts obviously. I guess you can say Bjelly playing is similar to the Gay situation, but they’ve been mitigating the risk by playing him sparingly.
We’re like the NBA’s version of a NPC.
Or a jobber. I’m tired of being the Iron Mike Sharpe or Barry Horowitz of the NBA.
¬ I wanna be… a Macho King ¬

It’s like the Kings are playing a video game that has never been connected to the internets to receive the day one patch from the developer so we just keep running into the same glitches over and over.
It’s going to take a while to unravel the mess Vlade Divac left behind and it certainly won’t be easy.
I agree with Tim that the team wasn’t designed to win and honestly, this is the perfect year to not worry about wins since there isn’t fans in the building. Walk into next offseason with cap flexibility, no bloated contracts, and another lottery pick. Then we can start to see what a McNair led team looks like.
Also, if you’re gonna tank, might as well do it in a season with fewer games and a loaded draft.
We’ve been designed to lose since 2007.
Call me a cynic, call me what you will, call me old fashioned……
but if Kings management designed this team to lose we’d be 27-0 right now.
Old Time Rock & Roll? When the Kings have the talent to compete, they will. I am interested in anyone who is inspired about basketball at all this season. I see hope & will buy in more next year.

K-K-K-K-K-K-Kangzmandu
I think that’s where I’m going to
If I ever get out of here
I’m going to Kangzmandu
Nah, not really. If the team were designed to lose, they wouldn’t have retained a lame duck head coach who is trying to win so he can get another job.
This team is no different than last season, frankly. Haliburton has been a fair replacement for Bogie. Say what you want about Whiteside, but he’s a pretty solid frontline player. And Fox really isn’t an All-Star caliber player yet, he’s essentially the same player as last season.
This team wasn’t built to be bad – if they were, McNair would have attempted to fire sale Barnes, would have dealt Buddy for whatever future draft compensation he could get, and would have an interim head coach limiting Fox’s minutes and giving MBIII 30 minutes per game.
As they are built right now, this team is designed to be on that late lottery treadmill. I think that could change, since they got pretty lucky on Haliburton and there’s still hope for Fox to make a jump, but a lot still needs to go right (like getting another nice player in the upcoming draft).
Retaining Walton absolutely does show the team is “designed to lose.” He’s the Unwitting Tank Commander, trying his best to win and still losing regularly with the worst defense in history. Keeping Walton was a genius way to propel the tank while denying the existence of said tank.
Walton got them 31 wins last season and has them at 12-15 this season. I’m not sure that’s the genius we were looking for.
This team is in no way tanking, intended or not.
Yes but he could be soft tanking after the deals are made mid-season, hopefully moving up in the draft(s) in the process.
I did use the word hope in that sentence which is probably not smart.
Yeah, my first comment was semi-tongue-in-cheek. It’s a “soft tank” that avoids the appearance of blatantly trying to lose, while leaving the door open for unexpected magic that could (but almost certainly won’t) happen.
I think unless you’re getting draft capital back in a deal, this won’t even really be a “soft tank”. The players we get back in a trade will likely be useful enough for Walton to play without losing much on-court.
You may very well be correct. At the end of the day, I’m at a total loss to interpret what this franchise does on daily, yearly, or decade-ly basis.
The words hope and smart will break your heart as a Kangz fan
His 3pt % and volume are not letting me completely agree with this sentence. He is up to about 35% on 5 attempts per game, which is a pretty big jump in his game. As a result, his TS% is at a career high. It’s finally a weapon that teams need to respect, which I think will start opening up drives even more. We shall see.
Now, if he could just hit FTs at above 75%, dognabbit!
He shot 37% two seasons ago though (albeit, as you noted, on fewer attempts). More noticeably, defenders still go under the screens…he’s still not really scaring anyone. Fox is only approaching All-Star level if a bunch of guards disappear from the West suddenly.
And I don’t think the FT% should be a throwaway line when discussing this – I’d think a guy who is going to be a good three point shooter wouldn’t struggle to get to 70% from the line.
Dunno, I’m just not seeing anything that tells me he’s going to make the leap to upper-tier in the league. Regardless, he’ll be a nice piece of the puzzle with Haliburton and (hopefully) this next draft pick.
Yeah to say Fox isn’t any better is a bit ridiculous. He’s now a borderline all star and all aspects of his game shooting, penetrating, defense, decision making, etc have gradually improved each year. I actually think the Kings are in the best position they’ve been in many years. We have two young solid building blocks and really only one bad contract right now. I would move Barnes immediately to Boston if we can get a first and Romeo Langford. The obvious key going forward is making next years draft count big and secondly not making any stupid free agent over payments. To me, after drafting Haliburton the best thing this management group has done was to not overspend on mediocre free agents like Vlade did with ZZbo, Hill, Joseph, etc.
100% agree.
They have two young playmakers (every team wants) who are locked up together for the next 5 years and are already good. Can they get markedly better? I think so, but remains to be seen.
I don’t think they have any albatross contracts and likely the two contracts that might be viewed unfavorably definitely seem moveable. There is no Westbrook/Wall type situation. For all the crap Divac takes (rightfully so) he didn’t sign Demarcus to that 5 year supermax extension that would have kicked in during 2018 and still been on the books for a couple more years. That would have been crippling to this current team.
I see a team that needs improvement, but has pieces and flexibility to be able to do so in the future. Just got to push the right buttons now…which isn’t easy, but not impossible.
I mean, I’m willing to listen to the statistical case for this. He’s improved in some areas, but his advanced numbers (and the team’s overall performance when he’s ostensibly the “best player”) don’t tell that tale.
I’ve been coaching basketball for a couple of decades and before that played 2 years of D1 basketball after transferring from a jr. college. I tend to trust my eyes but if you need numbers to help you out, take a look at the NBA real plus/minus stat where he’s 11th in the entire league. That stat has a good way of exposing the cream of the crop. The top 6 right now is composed of Steph, Lillard, Lebron, Giannis, Harden and the Joker. I wouldn’t run any further with that Fox isn’t any better narrative which you’ve been pitching for too long.
I don’t really mind RPM too much, but right now De’Aaron rates behind Lonzo Ball in RPM. He rates behind Devonté Graham. And he rates behind Patty Mills. Good players all, but there’s a wide gulf between where Fox is currently and guys like “Steph, Lillard, LeBron, Giannis, Harden and the Joker”.
So if that’s your primary point, I’d maybe just stick with trying to impress me with your resume going forward.
The point which I think you understand that I’ll repeat in case I’m over estimating your intelligence wasn’t to suggest Fox was on par with the top 6 but the statistic itself tends to identify the best players so it has a lot of credibility. Fox ranking 11th says a lot about his overall performance.
You forgot a word, I think.
He’s also ranked 6th in PER. You can go on finding ways to try make your weak point but I’d doubt you’ll get any takers.
PER? And I’m making weak points?
This team is only slightly better with him on the floor than off (0.4 points per 100 possessions), and the opposition outscores our team by an average of 5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
He’s got a ways to go to become an All-Star level player. This is year 4. Most high-end players have started to impact wins and losses at this point in their career.
And lest anyone be confused on how I feel about Fox, I think the guy is a very good NBA basketball player. Definitely top-75, borderline top-50.
They just need him to be much more than that, if he’s expected to be their best player.
I guess your trying to impress me with your resume which is digging up minutia to prove a ridiculous position you’ve been taking. It’s nothing more than gorilla dust. RPM measures how much a player helps or hurts a team taking on a myriad of factors. This crap your dishing out doesn’t take into account the quality of a players teammates or opponent. Before you laugh at PER which apparently isn’t sophisticated enough for you, take a look who’s on the top 5. I think both RPM and PER are doing a good job confirming what people who actually know something about basketball see with their eyes. Fox is clearly much better than the 50-75 rank you’ve given him. Now run along and dig up some more crap off the internet and claim you know something that no one else does.
yeah it’s weird. the advanced stats seem to think that this has been Fox’s best offensive season. They also say that he had a better season, overall, two seasons ago. Weird might be the wrong word for it since it seems like a simple situation in which his DReb%, STL% and BLK% are all the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year. Essentially his defensive decline this season has outweighed any gains he’s made on offense.
I think it’s probably more accurate to say “making the playoffs was not a goal heading into this season.”
Regarding Walton, I guess technically most people want to do what they can to ensure that they remain attractive to future employers. I think it’s fair to point out that mention that Walton did bench Bjelly for over a month. That’s not really the type of move you make when you are prioritizing winning over Bagley’s development.
Anways, I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your overall point. I don’t think the goal was to maximize their chances of obtaining a top 3 pick. I also don’t think they tried to put this team in a position to succeed. If I had to guess, they wanted to give themselves time to evaluate things before making any drastic changes.
I still have many questions about this. Not sure it was a Luke strategy decision due to the smoke about personal stuff and back problems that keeps getting mentioned without explanation.
I don’t think teams can come out and say “we benched this guy, so we can maintain his trade value.”
Between you and me, we’d see benching Bjelly as a tanking move, but are we sure Walton would? I think the majority of fans probably think Bagley’s the better player, it wouldn’t surprise me if Walton did as well.
Adding, Bagley’s been on a roller coaster in MP most of the season, so it’s not like he’s being prioritized.
Fox is very different from last year. His shot selection is very different. His offensive contribution is another level beyond.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/1
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2020/sort/ORPM/position/1
The point of this article wasn’t that McNair was actively trying to make the team bad, but that he was not trying to improve the team in the present while keeping assets and flexibility to position the team to be good next year.
Holding onto those assets to maximize return is a good strategy to improve the team next year. And moving those guys before the deadline, which a lot of us are hopeful he’ll do, would give the team plenty of time to lose lots of games before the season ends.
Let’s just hope this team can get out of purgatory.
i have zero problem losing this year, if that’s the plan. But if we were trying to make the playoffs this year all along, Mcnair’s moves make zero sense.
I believe personally as stated, that the plan was to tank this year. Given that, we did draft a really good player that fell into our laps (can’t fault him for that) and the players still on our roster are all having career years – these three factors contributed to our recent winning streak but are not sustainable long term. We are now showing natural regression and will end up picking in the lottery and (hopefully) going all in on a playoff push next season.
I am ok with all of it
Problem is, they will have another stretch of good play at some point. This was a bad four games of basketball, but not nearly as abysmal as that bad string earlier this season.
That’s the problem with mediocre (not terrible) teams in the NBA…there are enough stretches of good play that force you to hope for ping pong ball luck in the lottery.
true – something I’ve always hated about this team is that they have never been truly horrendous, always just good enough to miss out on the top talent (outside of the horrendous Bagley draft where we got lucky) every damn year
Yeah, agreed…was rooting for McNair to shoot for “truly horrendous” and clear the roster before the season started, alas.
I don’t know. The point differential and other metrics (particularly defensively) suggest that we have over-achieved to date.
Sure, we will win some more games but I don’t see another 7 out of 8 run in this squad.
That said, this roster plus Walton is a recipe for drafting in the 8-13 range, rather than the 1-5 range. Yippie!
I think that stretch of abysmal defense actually skewed the expected record a bit too much. And this team also had that 13-7 run last season, so I wouldn’t be so sure they can’t have another hot streak.
But agreed, probably not good enough to avoid the lower third of the lottery.
Take a look at what OKC is doing. They have a plethora of young talent, SGA, Dort, Bazely, Maledon, Diallo, Roby, Pukuseski, Williams and they play their veterans just enough to keep their market values from completely tanking. That should be the blueprint for the Kings going forward. It would be nice to know sooner than later if any of these second rounders have any utility. I’d be playing Metu, Guy, James and Woodard more and immediately move Cojo and Bjelica for whatever we can get. I’d also move Whiteside. The goal for this year should be to develop and evaluate our young players, improve our draft position and to create some cap space so we can possibly take on a bad contract for a young piece or future draft pick.
I agree, and I think we will get to that phase sooner rather than later if the Kings continue to play this way. We are going to see all those young guys come post trade deadline.
Agree.
Trade season needs to see major roster turnover. Forgive me for throwing out asinine trade ideas after a bad weekend showing for the Kings.
Cojo/Bagley for Al Farouq Aminu/Mo bamba
Barnes/Holmes for Saric/Crowder first round pick and future protected 1st that turns into two 2nds.
Bjelica for Romeo Langford.
Not sure where Buddys value is at, but we need a reset so we can all stop having false hope.
You know I was pitching a trade for Mo Bamba for awhile but I’ve jumped off that train after watching him recently. A 7 foot plus player that can shoot it with range is very intriguing but his reactions are sooo slow and he lacks any kind of physicallity and I don’t think those are things that can be developed away.
Magic would take that Cojo Bagley for Aminu/ Bamba trade in a heartbeat. Then they’d all laugh at how dumb the Kings are and enjoy a cigar.
Bamba is two years away from two years away ! Will never be as good as Alex Len !
Too Bad to Not Fail
I want to ask Brown if this team is good. or bad.
Time to summon unicorns. Bring Woodard and Ramsey back to Sac and give them CoJo’s and GR3’s minutes. In retrospect, the 7-of-8 streak was always a mirage, completed against injury-riddled teams who were themselves in name only.
I don’t know if mirage is the right word for it. They’ll probably win about 40% of their games. Those wins don’t happen in a uniform manner in which they always win 4 out of 10 games.
True. That said, a lot of people here (myself included) got excited that this team had just “woken up” and was going to play consistently competitive basketball and push for a playoff spot. That hope was always unfounded. This is a .400 team in the long run.
It’s not the wins and losses, it’s how they win and lose.
I think the team was constructed to minimize expenditures. Bogi was a salary dump. Players signed to minimum contracts. Didn’t use any of the available financial tools to get better players. Didn’t fire the coach because he is under contract and they would have had to pay him as well as a new coach. Not sure about how much the new GM was paid, but I would bet it’s on the low side by league standards. Look at what has happened to the Stockton Kings. The layoffs, etc. Seems to me the ownership is trying to make it through a bad financial time. This season seems to be about saving money, not winning or losing.
This is a solid point. I’m not completely sold on the idea that the Kings didn’t spend to not compete, but they didn’t spend because they couldn’t afford to. There is just as much evidence to this theory as their is to Tim’s piece.
One thing that doesn’t really fit is there were rumors that there was disagreement over what to do about Bogi. According to Bogi, Vivek and Joe Dumars indicated to Bogi they wanted to keep him. Then there was that whole hullabaloo over disagreement about the decision to match the Atlanta deal. If anything, it appears as though Vivek wanted to spend the money, and McNair preferred to maintain financial flexibility.
And that’s the crux here. Maybe this article correctly reflects Monte’s intentions.
But the real question is: what are the intentions of Vivek and Dumars?
I would agree the team wasn’t made to lose, it was made to do the following,
The losing is just a product of this, as is the winning, I do think the adds of Whiteside and the retention of Barnes is part of the growth of the backcourt. Can we afford to give them up? IDK it really depends on the return vs the cost to the development of existing “timeline” players.
OK #2 and 5 are supposed to be indented or subs of 1 and 4, upon saving that goes away
Very well said – I don’t think this team is “designed to lose” though I still understand Tim’s gander point.
I think we need to accept that McNair is not a Hinke clone. He had success in Houston taking their assets and using them efficiently to build over time until they had the assets to get Harden and then CP3.
He was never going to come in here and trade all of our players for future picks and try to win 20 games and hope that we got Cade and he was materially better than Fox.
The good news is he doesn’t appear to be trying to trade future firsts or young players for middling vets to chase the 8th seed either. Or benching our young guys to start and play guys like Bjelica over Bagley.
We are playing games to win them (as teams are supposed to do) and the FO is clearly evaluating our talent and if rumors are to be believed exploring the trade market. They will let us continue to lose at our very natural rate and try to improve the overall talent and value of our asset base.
Maybe doesn’t sound as sexy as trying to win a championship or Crashing for Cade, but it’s also a method a lot of the best teams have used and realistically what McNair appears to be trying to do.
Do Giraffe’s keep geese as pets?
The only pet Tim should be allowed to have is his horrible food takes.
Yes. There is nothing Monte has done thus far that hasn’t indicated to me that he has a plan and it probably goes along the lines of SptsJunkies take. The full on multi season tank has not been executed very often and the most famous example Sixers seems to have worked. But there was a lot of reason to be skeptical of Embiid after the first few seasons injury wise. Was a monster gamble and it worked out for them…it could easily have not and he could have been Greg Oden. We don’t know what the Thunder will turn out to be with their all out tank job.
There are just way more examples of teams building the way Junkie outlines here and gave numerous examples in the thread from the other day.
If Monte is holding off on trades etc, there is probably a reason why. Perhaps this will make more sense by this upcoming off-season?
Either way, Monte has time on his side (this season at least, and hopefully longer than that)
Actually, Morey had success ! Still do not know if McNair can as the decision maker ! He made zero in Houston ! Wish the best but it’s still a work in progress ! I find it interesting that Vivek has only hired GM’s that have never actually ran a team ! A bit scary !
Yeah, it may be an Occam’s Razor scenario. A total outsider looking at the Kings’ moves since McNair’s hire would probably conclude the team was trying to spend as little unnecessary money as possible while maximizing the $$ value of its current assets. Hence Bogi’s departure, declining to sell low on Hield and Barnes, declining to sign free agents over the minimum or for multiple years.
Optimism is tolerated to consume the reason we are all here…realism which resembles negativity!
I’m here for articles like this.
Watch Fox overuse himself into a serious injury trying to keep their heads above water. Cue the For who, for what? video.
Yeah, it looked like Fox tweaked his hip again last night at a point in the game when we were already 24+ points behind and showing no signs of making any headway in reducing that deficit. For who, for what?
Kings are top heavy. When the starters can’t play or the rookie gets injured we have no backup players to step in and provide valuable minutes. So anytime you see an injury to a main starter on this squad (with maybe the exception of Bagley) you have to assume it is going to be rough for the Kings.
Man, I really hope Kings brass doesn’t get lured by the false hopes of a 9th or 10th seed play in, because that is about all the Kings could hope for at this point. I almost feel like the NBA created this new system for the sole purpose to prevent tanking. It provides more competitive games as the season winds down, but really just strings along teams stuck in late lottery purgatory.
And before anyone asks, NO, I do not consider making the play in games to be the playoffs. Should they even by some miracle move from 10th to 8th, It’s still a farce for us fans.
When we have Fox/Hield/Barnes/Bagley/ Holmes starting and Haliburton running the second unit this team is watchable. If any one of these guys are injured for a game it throws off the rotations and the level of execution gets bad.
Bogdan’s 10 points and 4 rebounds per game does not make the kings a winning team, if he weren’t injured.
No moves would have made this a winning season with current players available. It will take time, and if there’s no progress in 3 years we can start all over again like we usually do.
The thing is the Kings have never started over. The moves they tend to make (well, Pete and Vlade’s moves) were shortsighted and only intended to “win now.” Giving contracts to players like Rondo, George Hill, Z-Bo, etc were never about the long term investment. They were false scaffolds to prop up bad teams in hopes of lucking into the 8th seed.
So far, it doesn’t look like short-sighted contracts are part of Monte’s philosophy.
Other than his proclaimed interest in cap flexibility, can we really tell what Monte’s philosophy actually is?
IMHO the trade deadline *should* reveal if he’s on an eight seed cycle, one year rebuild, or two year rebuild.
Agreed. We simply don’t know yet. Nor do we know how much room he gets from Vivek, either financially or by meddling.
For sure, Marty.
Yup.
Do not forget Vivek !
“Eight seed cycle” should be the title of Volume 1 of the book on Vivek’s tenure here.
The Fade for Cade must begin at some point. Why not now?
Ughs for Suggs? Play ignobly for Mobley? Drop a sinka for Kuminga? Careen for Green?
Bailin’ for Jalen.
CRUSADE FOR CADE
This is the Kings though, so it should be:
Riding the Fence for Franz.
Okaying for Keon.
Occasional win spurt for Kispert.
Albatross coaching for Alperen.
I puka when I hear “Luka”
Do you puka in the Bagley?
They aren’t good…which is ok. We have seen some great glimpses…and some awful checks to reality. It is very clear the only untouchable assets on this roster is De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and our 1st round pick this year. Other than that-every asset is on the trading block for the right price.
Here are some trades that might work…
Barnes to Boston for Nesmith/Langford and a protected first
Hield to Philly for Kurkmaz/young player and a protected first
Bagley to New Orleans for Lonzo Ball and a 2nd (really just a swap and new situation for 2 kids)…depends on how McNair sees Bagley
Whiteside to anyone that needs a big for a G-League flier…or keep
Bjelica and Joseph could be buy out guys, flipped in other deals, or kept.
Get some playing time for Kyle Guy, Daequan Jefferies, Justin James, Woodard, and maybe even Ramsey…etc.
Top 5 pick on either Mobley or a wing like Kuminga-fingers crossed for Cunningham though.
I don’t think we’d get 1st round picks for Buddy or Barnes – just my two cents!
Agree with everything you wrote except you can have Lonzo. The other moves you suggested would put us in a nice position moving forward. Then you have to make those draft picks count and possibly make a strategic trade picking up a serviceable bad contract for a young player or draft pick.
Fun(?) with numbers:
Kings average +5.9 in point differential in their 12 wins and have one game that they have won by 10 points or more.
Kings average -14.5 in point differential in their 15 losses and have nine games that they have lost by 10 points or more.
Kings 4-2 in games decided by one possession, 8-4 in games decided by 1-2 possessions.
Kings tied for 18th worst record in the league.
Kings have 25th worst point differential in the league.
Conclusion: This team, at 12-15, has actually won more games than they should have. The team has a disproportionately large percentage of success in close games, thanks to some late game heroics by Fox and Haliburton, and to a lesser extent Barnes and Hield. 9-18 would be a more appropriate record based on overall play, which would have this team with the 27th worst record in the league. Log this if the team begins losing games hand over fist, as it would be less about tanking and more about this roster playing to its statistical conclusion.
Should you be the one telling us what’s more appropriate?
Yeah, their Pythag record puts them above only the Wolves in the West at 9-18.
I think in this particular case the Pythag is being weighed down by that otherwordly bad stretch of defense earlier in the season. Not that the defense is particularly good right now (27th in the NBA over the four game losing streak), but a similar roster under the same coach was 20th in defense in the NBA last season.
This is a streaky team, but I suspect their record is right around where it should be, based on the current roster.
This is not quite the same team from last year.
Defensively, the only thing this team had ever been good at is forcing turnover. They were always in the top 10 the previous 2 years. They are bottom 5 this year.
A big factor is the long defensive wing defender. They had Shumpert during Jeorger year. They had Ariza/Bazemore last year, This year they have none.
I think McNair knew this and he purposely put this horribly defensive team together.
Well, maybe…but Ariza and Bazemore were 8th and 10th on the roster in minutes played last season. Haliburton seems like a pretty heady defender, and they’ve added a rim protector in Whiteside.
Not sure there should be this big of a dropoff.
yet each was 2nd in steals per game.
Hali only replaces Bogi’s production. Whiteside’s rim protection has little to do with forcing turnover.
The team as a total has 6.6 steals per game, 25th in the league.
Last year, they had 7.7 steals per game, 14th in the league
The year before last, 8.3 steals per game, 10th in the league.
To be fair, per game numbers for things like steals (and blocked shots) aren’t necessarily indicators of good defensive teams (or players, for that matter).
I understand. I am not saying that they were good defensively or Ariza/Bazemore was good defensively players. I am just saying that forcing turnover was the only thing that kept them from a below average defensive team to a bad one. And now that they don’t even have players to force turnover, it makes sense they should be a bad defensive team.
The level of badness is a bit unexpected though.
Great stuff here, Rob.
Great post. This is very similar to what happened two year ago. We started the season with unsustainable shooting, virtually no impact injuries, with more wins than our point differential suggested, and had some thrilling wins on last possession shots.
Then the second half of the season our shooting normalized, we lost more games than our point differential suggested, and we had some heart breaking losses where we missed some good looking shots on our final possessions.
People scrambled for all sorts of explanations about Joerger’s coaching, rotations, trading Shumpert, etc. But really our luck just and natural variance just sort of evened out. And people were trying to create patterns out of noise or turn Shump into a lock room whisperer that he wasn’t (I mean, he was a good high character veteran who helped the locker room, but he wasn’t the difference between us fighting for a playoff spot and losing tons of games).
Agreed and I’ve been making this point basically all season. I think this team has bottom 5’ish roster talent and I believe when it all shakes out they’ll be closer to the worst team in the conference than the 8th seed. The point differential has always said this team was one of the first in the league and that was eventually going to catch up to them in addition to the insane injury/Covid luck they’ve had most of the season.
Agree. I also think a large portion to our losses has been poor bunch performances. I think bench pieces can be sorted out in the shorter term. Still, would love to inject some solid starters or key rotational players over the next few drafts ( I mean I am sure we all would right?)
I feel that your take on the Bogdan situation is a bit reductive. I think that both in the short and long-term, referring to an aging, injury-prone player as a “key contributor” is significantly overinflated.
Had McNair matched, the Kings would have a ton of money tied up in a player whose main role would have been keeping Tyrese Haliburton glued firmly to the bench. Even at this early juncture, I don’t think that stating that Haliburton is a superior player to Bogdan is hyperbole. Ty does everything that Bobo did on offense, and frankly, does so at a higher level. Even if you took a portion of that away, what Haliburton does on the defensive end is so completely superior to the $72 million dollar man, that any offensive shortcomings would be largely dismissed. Haliburton is a far-superior athlete, is just twenty years old, and is only going to get better. Letting Bogdan walk was the smart move in the long-term, and turned out to be the smart move in the short term, as well.
Sacramento wasn’t going to be a particularly good team this season whether or not Bogdan stayed. The Kings managed to lose a ton of games while this key contributor was under contract. Doubling his pay for an additional four years would be something that VD would have done. The new guy isn’t overpaying to keep his pals around.
Keeping Bobo around wouldn’t have made any difference in Sacramento’s likelihood of ending up in lottery.
yeah the bogi stuff is a terrible take by the OP
I sometimes wonder how much Tyrese would have played if we’d have gotten Donte from Milwaukee?
I imagine that it would have sorted itself out. I think Donte has considerable upside, but Haliburton would likely have beat him out for minutes.
I also wonder if we McNair might have shown a bit more urgency in trading Hield if we landed Donte for that reason.
Haiburton is clearly getting plenty of minutes with Hield on the roster. If we added Donate, than Cojo could have been pretty firmly planted on the bench opening up more minutes.
But we also might have shipped Hield off prior to the season starting. I don’t think McNair would want this prize draft pick being glued to the bench.
In a way, not matching Bogdan puts Sacramento in a better position, because McNair doesn’t have to clear anyone out due to a glut of guards. He can just wait for a legit offer, and if one isn’t forthcoming, then we just keep playing Buddy Hield, which has been pretty good recently.
It also allows McNair to not be desperate to unload a fairly large contract, since BoBo isn’t tying up a bunch of money while recovering from knee soreness.
Now THAT brings back memories of how much I disliked my Vista.
Drummond for Buddy or Barnes/Belly would make sense for the Kings, and potentially the Cavs. The Cavs front line is pretty weak, Barnes would provide a steady vet presence and Belly would be off the books after this season. Buddy probably makes less sense b/c the Cavs have so many young guards they want to give minutes to.
For the Kings, we get a bad-ass, enforcer-type center for half a year, and then his contract goes off the books.
I’m okay with the losing now. I hope we get a good pick this year and some good future assets from trades. My only worry is Fox asking to be traded because he’s tired of losing. Hope he sticks it out cause if we go through all this just to lose our young star it’ll be awful
We would have to set the new standard for demanding out of a situation. He hasn’t even started his 5 year extension yet. Most guys are least a couple years into their extension before they ask out of the last 2-3 years. Not impossible…but he also doesn’t strike me as someone who would do that so early in the extension.
my 2 cents.
Fox – good
Haliburton – will be good
rest of team – meh.
On a serious note, let Harrison go to the Celts for a 1st and/or Nesmith or to Philly for a 1st and/or Korkmaz. Bjelly could fetch a second or interesting, underperforming young player – say a Luka Samanic from San Antonio. Not him necessarily, just as an example.
I don’t like the Korkmaz scenario. He will be a RFA and really isn’t worth paying to keep with guys like Hali and Woodard on the roster. He just doesn’t move the needle for me in terms of long term improvement.
OT: WTF??!!
Damn, that sucks.
Get well soon, Chimezie.
Get well soon, Chemezie.
Valanciunas has to get a significant suspension, right? That’s about as dangerous as anything I’ve seen on a basketball court in quite some time.
That photo is what’s know as Exhibit A. If Metu decided to bring a civil suit, he would absolutely win. What JV pulled is outside the scope of basketball, and shouldn’t be palmed off as a basketball play.
The league needs to thump that fucker but good.
Sorry but I had to post this. Apparently James Ham is wondering whether or not a team meeting will cure this team’s lack of talent.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/kings-erratic-play-continues-were-183514649.html
Ham is a tool. He has to pay the bills. So what do you expect him to say. Objective thinking is not his strong.
The 16th Anniversary of arrange the deck chairs meeting. That shizzle is ridiculous.
Just go out there and play Some consistent D.
These 4 losses are a return to the mean. Quite simply, The Kings winning streak was an aberration. I look at the Wins they had against quality teams. Then, I look at the profuse of injuries those teams had. George, Beverly, Kemba, Pritchard, Smart, Adams, Redick, Murray, Dozier, Harris. What If the Clips, Nugs, Celts, and Pels we’re healthy? The Kings maybe win one of those games.
Does the coaching staff have a scout report? Vucevic killed us with open 3s from his favorite spot.
Barnes:
Last 4: 4, 8, 13, 8
Previous 4: 24, 24, 28, 4
Four wins. Four losses. No one is talking about this. If Fox, Bagley and Holmes are out, others gotta step up. Not regress.
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