Rumors are swirling about Jonathan Kuminga potentially being traded to the Sacramento Kings. The former 7th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has had a rocky start to his career in Golden State, with head coach Steve Kerr keeping him on a short leash in terms of minutes. The Kings have a long tradition of not having players with length and athleticism on the roster, so adding a 22-year-old of that cloth would be welcome. But would an expanded role for Kuminga in Sacramento allow him to blossom, or would it expose the flaws Kerr has long been cautious with?
Let’s take a look at what the numbers might suggest.
Limited Role With The Warriors
Kuminga has shown flashes of true promise and stretches of limited opportunity to start his career with the Warriors. His minutes have increased from 16.9 as a rookie to 26.3 in the 2023-24 season, only to drop back down to 24.3 last season. Kerr would never fully commit to having him on the floor is closing situations or in high-leverage moments. Kuminga himself has stated that he is irritated by being told to stay ready while also saying, “I already know that I’m ready.” When Kerr gave him the most run in 2023-24, Kuminga averaged 16.1 points.
In May, Kerr said: “I’ve been asked to win. And right now, he’s not a guy who I can say, I’m going to play 38 minutes with the roster we have, Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond, and put the puzzle together that way and expect to win.”
It also has been reported that Kuminga began looking for his shot over getting Steph Curry the ball and following the flow of the offense.
In last season’s playoff series against the Houston Rockets, Kuminga did not play in four of the seven games. (He went through warm-ups in one game then did not play because of an illness.) In the following series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, he played in all five games, including a 30-point performance.
Offensive Strengths
His greatest strength is the pressure he puts on the rim. He shot 72-74% at the rim the last two seasons (good for the 88th and 87th percentile), according to Cleaning The Glass. Last season, he drew a career-high 5 free throw attempts per game in 24 minutes played, indicating strong slashing skills. And as his usage rate climbed into the 92nd percentile, his turnover percentage improved to the highest of his career (67th percentile). He added 4.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game to go along with 15.3 points. These are indicators things could scale up in Sacramento.
His Per 36 minutes numbers last season were:
- 22.6 points
- 6.8 rebounds
- 3.3 assists
- 1.2 steals
- 45% from the field
- 30% from three (yikes)
- 2.2 turnovers
In the 2023-24 season in which he played the most minutes, the Warriors were a +2.0 in efficiency differential with him on the floor. In that season, he had 23 games of 20+ points in 74 games. Last season, he tallied three games with 30+ points and 11 games with 20+ points in 47 games.
Defensive Growth
Kuminga has reduced his foul percentage from 4.9% as a rookie to 3.1% last season. His offensive and defensive rebounding percentages have both been respectable the last two seasons, the same with his block and steal percentages. His block percentage was in the 15th percentile in his first season, compared to 63rd last season.
With Kuminga on the floor, Warriors opponents last season had a -2.2% drop in effective field goal percentage (84th percentile), according to Cleaning The Glass.
Would He Flourish In Sacramento?
This is the key question. And with the current roster of ball-dominant, high usage players, the answer is probably not. But things could change quickly, especially if Malik Monk is shipped out. Aside from the roster fit though, let’s consider his potential just with expanded minutes. The stats above show that he has kept turnovers down with higher usage, which is a good sign. He finishes around the rim at an elite level. He can roll, drive, score in transition and on putbacks. His athleticism and speed allows him to make up ground on the defensive side of the ball. The Kings have been in desperate need of players like this for a long time, not to mention younger and switchable talent at the forward spots with such a skillset.
Concerns About An Expanded Role
But will Kerr’s concerns be more prevalent with an expanded role? There are two potential paths with Kuminga: 1. A two-way game changer. 2. A role player who is a ball stopper and can’t space the floor. Spacing the floor is a real concern considering his shooting limitations, which we haven’t got into much yet. While he may be in the 87th percentile in field goal percentage at the rim, when he moves further out things get concerning. Here are his shooting averages from the other areas of the floor last season:
- Short midrange: 37%
- Long midrange: 27%
- All midrange: 35%
- Corner three: 28%
- Non corner three: 33%
- All threes: 31%
The majority of those were declines from the previous season. And his overall effective field goal percentage dropped from 56.3% in 2023-24 to 49.9% last season. That is a drop from the 68th percentile to the 20th percentile. His points per shot attempt last season was good for only the 21st percentile and his assist to usage ratio was a subpar 40th percentile, according to Cleaning The Glass.
The Warriors were 4.2 points worse and -3.5 in efficiency differential with him on the floor. This likely played a big factor into Kerr limiting his minutes, while trying to make things work with the Warriors aging stars. If he can’t improve his shot from the perimeter and embrace a more versatile role, there is a risk his inefficiencies could become amplified. Plus, if Kuminga thought he should look off Steph Curry, the best shooter of all time, and not accept a role on a team with multiple championships, personality could be something to consider should he join the Kings.
The Bottom Line
Kuminga is reportedly wanting $30 million or more a season.
Is it a risk?
Yeah.
Do the Kings need to take some risks to get better?
Yes. Kuminga is a 22-year-old upside prospect that a team like Sacramento should swing on. Because really, what have they got to lose?
OK, I’ll be be first to comment. How much is he signing for in this sign & trade? That matters. Intriguing talent though. We could use one of those
Kuminga talent and upside is maybe good in regular season only. Fast paced, fast break etc.
they need players who have the potential to be good in playoffs. There was a reason he wasn’t playing at the end of games in Golden State.
I don’t want these decent regular season players who can’t shoot, play and a half court with him and offenses set. Useless. So the kings will probably do it.
I agree with this. But if this is the barometer for roster construction, then DDR, Domas and Lavine need to go.
I agree with that but the Kings won’t do it.
He averaged around twenty-one points in twenty-seven minutes over five games with Minnesota a couple of months ago, and the Wolves aren’t exactly pushovers defensively.
Besides, who gives a shit about the playoffs? Sacramento won’t be in them next year, but could evolve into something special over the next eighteen months.
It’s not about points average. It’s about being able to shoot. It’s about having a playoff style game. As I mentioned elsewhere, this was the Wedtbrick issue.
Sure, he can put up stats but can’t win it all.
I don’t think Kuminga had that ability to be a contender. Unless everyone else on the floor can shoot. And you really think the Kings will be one’s to unlock his potential? No f-ing way.
I want the Kings to do what they won’t- build a team with players who can win and contend for a title.
Yeah, I’ve been advocating for him for a few weeks now but there was very little confirmation of interest with-most feedback indicating they felt his basketball IQ was something causing them to lack interest. Now all of the sudden after getting very little interest in free agency there is a feeding frenzy. The numbers now being thrown around are numbers too high for me to maintain interest. 3 years 36 million, and I start getting a bit excited.
He fits taking a rebuild flyer, but if he’s a bust at 4 years, $100 million, you have another significant roadblock with a rebuild plan.
I’m ambivalent about Kuminga, he isn’t a high priority for me, but if you want him 3 years 36 million (less than Schroeder!) isn’t going to get it done. He’s not a rebuild flyer for teams that believe he will significantly improve, and there are teams out there who believe it. If you don’t believe it, don’t trade for him, if you do, 3 years 70 million is ballpark.
What have they got to lose? The opportunity to get another guy who has more chance of reaching his potential, perhaps?
I wrote before, he’s the TYPE of player you have to gamble on, but he’s not THE PLAYER you have to gamble on.
The overinflated sense of his worth, the low IQ, not team-oriented type of game and lack of decent passing ability give me Marvin Bagley vibes.
At his best, I think he’ll be a an inefficient scorer who has nice raw numbers but does little to improve his team.
100 percent agree. He is the exact opposite of a player worth gambling on.
He can’t shoot. Red flag. End of discussion.
It’s idiotic. Want to take a risk, get
more draft picks. Get players like Clifford. Players that can play defense and can actually shoot the ball.
This has shit written all over it. You can get a defensive ball hog for cheaper than that too.
Amd basically the only potential/upside is that he’s young. You don’t build with this type player.
This is why Green was traded from Houston and he’s way better than Kuminga.
If you can’t shoot you’re not going to perform in playoffs/be a contender.
See also – Wedtbrick. Even in his prime. Not worth building woh
So if JV decides to go play in Europe instead, does the JV/Saric trade get automatically get rescinded?
Was loving the fit and depth creation for the Nugs having JV as a backup to Joker.
I’ve seen some speculation that the Nuggets may go ahead with the trade, then buy out JV to cut their payroll—similar to what the Raptors did with Sasha last year.
+1 I’ve also seen suggestions that not having the additional cap space from the JV for Saric trade would further complicate the Kings’ ability to complete a sign and trade for Kuminga.
From what I’ve seen, I don’t think it would be a buyout. He may void his contract to go play in Europe.
Looks like it may not matter for the Kings. Jake Fischer reported:
It really would be something if JV walks away from Denver and the Kings are left holding Dario Saric’s $5M deal.
He gets to backup an all timer and have a legit shot at a ship.
I would at least play next season in DEN if I were him.
Maybe he wants a larger role, not a fan of Denver, or just wants to go back to Europe?
Similar to Vezenkov last season.
I don’t see much reward in adding yet another terrible defender with a basement-level basketball IQ to the team.
If he stays the player he currently is, he’ll fit right in with Lavine, DDR and MM.
Vivek’s objective is to accumulate entertaining scorers that are ineffecient, play no defense, and that don’t contribute to the win column.
That’s why Westbrook will also be signed.
The reservstions i have. If Kerr could not coach up his potential…What makes you think Christie can? Kerr ia a master tactician. Both as a player( coached by the 2 best coaches of all time) Kerr also developed a myriad of players who became All Stars or highly effective starters and role players. Christie has no such resume. As a former 5th asst, elevated to HC. Kuminga will get traded here. He will end up being an overpayed mediocre starter.
Who are these players that Kerr developed? He walked into a situation where Curry/Green/Thompson were already there and then installed a system that let them be their best selves but he didn’t really develop them. Beyond the core 3, they won championships by adding prime Durant and making Wiggins care about basketball for a couple of months.
I’m looking at the list and simply not seeing anything beyond “eh, he’s good I guess” since Kerr arrived there
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Warriors_draft_history
Kerr is akin to Phil Jackson. Great HCs that inherited top 20 all time players but never developed any they didn’t inherit.
As an aside, the Knicks going from Thibs to MB is just so comically Knicks. Should have swallowed their pride and begged Thibs to come back.
I mean you could kind of say Phil helped develop a young Kobe, but he also had the Jordan blueprint for a player who already was obsessed with him
This is a very valid point. Simply put, if a very competent Warriors don’t see the value in keeping him, why should the Kings give him $30M a year to start him. The Warriors have been making positive adjustments to the roster every year for over a decade now. I really can’t think of anyone the moved on from that excelled elsewhere.
The Warriors are in win now mode, and spent their money on Butler. Not a huge fan of Kuminga, but I wouldn’t emphasize this too much. Kerr was horrible with Moody, who has none of Kuminga’s issues.
The cap is so unbelievably confusing but I would only do this if monk or DDR or both go out. What is Kuminga actually worth and who are they bidding against?
The Heat and the Bulls were favored to trade for him.
I haven’t paid any attention to him. But, by the amount of attention this is getting I am certain he wont be suiting up for the Kings.
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To be fair, we had quite a bit of discussion about Schroder before it happened. Maybe Perry is more transparent about his intended moves? Monte was the one that seemed to make decisions out of nowhere.
His constant fits with Kerr and turning down $150 mil over 5 years gives me the impression he will be toxic on this team. I can imagine him always wanting the ball, playing stupid hero ball plays from time to time. Would rather have Monk, who at least plays smart hero ball + stays positive. The only dude in the NBA who would give Kum Bucket a max contract is Vivek. This reeks of Vivek. On the flip side, I have been wanting to see this team blow it up with young guys and he is still only 22. There is no denying the potential.
I get a bit of the Jordan Poole of forwards vibe from Kuminga. He may have grown too big for his britches and wanted the ball more, when clearly the Warriors are Curry focused. If you are not on board with the system then it’s “see ya.”
There are quite a number of teams who, if they had drafted Kuminga, would have given him more touches. It isn’t necessarily a criticism of Kuminga that he got frustrated being forced into a role that, from his perspective, stunted his development because of Curry. If anything, the Warriors never should have drafted him and traded down for role players that fit their system instead.
With Jaxson Hayes returning and the signing Deandre Ayton with the Lakers, that takes them out of the Al Horford running. That means the Dubs are very likely going to go after Horford. This could expedite the process and give the Kings some leverage in any Kuminga talks.
Good point, that.
I am guess I am just confused by the majority of responses here – you don’t want Jonathan Kuminga (and yes, his price tag is his price tag) but you want more youth, more frontcourt and it should be a less controversial addition and that should include a trade of DeRozan, and/or Lavine and/or Monk and this player is …. who is available for what is what the Kings want to trade…and shouldn’t have any downside… and they should either be mostly developed or be ready to be developed into just the right fit…and that trade should be now or very soon, certainly before the season starts, because if the Kings wait, how long of a wait should that be…and the other team is willing to part with them anyway?
I want to get the requirements just right, just like you all do.
I want what I want!…
Mick Jagger must be a Sacramento Kings fan:
You forgot to add that if Perry doesn’t make a move, then he is McPerry, and why did they hire him.
I’m cool with the addition. I just don’t want him at $30M per year to go along with Monk, DDR, and LaVine. At $30M he better be starting and getting 30+ minutes a game, but it better not be at the expense of Keegan.
$30m is crazy for him. He hasn’t earned that contract.
Be nice if they could unload DDR this offseason, maybe Monk too, and have Kuminga start, open up more playing time for Ellis and Carter or Clifford.
Move out some bad defenders, get the better ones on the court more often.
For sure, start him out there with Keegan and Sabonis, but that is only happening if DDR is moved.
$30m won’t seem like much in a couple years.
lots of money coming off the books and he will be scoring 20-25 pts a night!
This articles is about the risks vs rewards of acquiring and paying Kuminga. So the risks are discussed here, and that is a problem to you?
Do you want us to just talk about the rewards? I want to get the requirements for this discussion just right, of course.
Maybe we can trade Lavine for Wemby, Monk for Amen, and DDR for Castle. Should be easy enough for these guys in the FO, right? *chasm not directed at you, UTQ*
Maybe we can trade Lavine for Wemby, Monk for Amen, and DDR for Castle. Should be easy enough for these guys in the FO to do, right? *chasm not directed at you, UTQ*
In a vacuum this would be a great thing. But the cost of this I feel wouldn’t be at a price I would prefer. That being said it’s insane to me that this year with the CBA adjustments have basically made all the vets the kings have untradeable. Which worries me that the only way to add this youth would be at the cost of our existing youth. Which would be a complete lateral move.
Kuminga also has some strange vibes in the ego department. Much like Poole. Dont like that much.
I love Sam Vecenie and his takes. His free agency pod he gets into Dennis and the Dario trade and the direction of the kings. I know we all know it’s not good but with the new CBA constraints this could be another decade disaster per Sam and his cap/contract guy he had on.
He’s a lottery ticket and the Kings need as many of those guys as possible if they’re not going to tank.
Could be Blake Griffin, could be Derek Williams …
I hope we find out with him on the Kings!
He seems like he is worth taking a chance on as long as we dont ship out lottery picks,Keon or Keegan eventually DDR and Lavine will be gone I would also be good with sending them Devin Carter or Monk
This offseason will be a failure unless Sacramento finds a way to get Jokic, Giannis, Tatum, Hali, and SGA on the Kings. All other signings are stupid.
Is this how it works? Asking for a friend.
No, that’s not how it works. Not at all. We should be grateful for Saric, Eubanks, and Schroeder. Lots of teams in the West are retooling. The Kings are just tooling.
The owner is definitely a tool
This offseason and this roster are so uninspiring, I say what the hell, let’s gamble. I would gamble on Jalen Green too. We NEVER take swings on young athletic guys like that. It’s always the AARP crew.
The Athletic is reporting the Kings offer of Carter, Saric and a pair of 2nd round picks the the low ball offer right now. Wiz are offering Justin Champagnie and the Warriors first round 2030 pick back. Sounds like Wiz first offer already beats out the Kings.
Hate to be this guy but I’ll believe it when I see it, Kings seem to be all speculation for years now. Pretty tired of it. I like his game whenever my eyeballs see him but I understand the concerns, certainly a risk Kangz (until they become not Kangz) need to take. Good write up!
Kangz really need to be in the business of gutting this roster, getting rid of players, and cycling through new ones until some successes emerge. We get way to stuck on mediocre and average players, giving them too long on our roster. Speaking more of veterans. We could do way better keeping and developing young players. If a team is average or bad there should be a good amount of young guys developing. We have an older roster that’s not even built to win now.
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