The Curious NBA Draft Case of Jaden McDaniels

The allure of upside is one of the most addictive things in sports. Too often, teams, fans, and armchair scouts judge players based on what type of player they could become, and not what type of player they are or are even likely to become. For every Kawhi Leonard, there is a Jimmer Freddette; for every Dragan Bender, a Buddy Hield; and for every Luka Doncic, there’s a €œwe like his upside more€ guy. 

There may not be a more €œupside€ guy in the 2020 NBA Draft class than Jaden McDaniels, a 6’10 forward with an enticing combination of tools for the modern game. He’s a solid shooter with extra size (a reported 6’11 wingspan), quickness, and potential versatility on both ends. In a league that begs for size and shooting ability, the physical comparison to Kevin Durant – an extreme hyperbolic and insulting comparison though it is – has been thrown around. Any team would love a young player who can shoot off the dribble and has the wingspan to keep the shot out of a defender’s reach.

But after a single season at Washington, McDaniel’s question marks outweigh his clear upside, and the case against drafting him in the lottery – or arguably, even the first round – is pretty clear when you watch the tape and consider his stats. I ranked McDaniels at 23rd on my first Big Board in April, but he’ll be lower than that on my next update. He’s dropped for both armchair scouts and experts; ESPN has him 22nd on their latest Big Board, and The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie has him 41st.

I believe McDaniels could still develop into a starter-level player, if he ends up with a team that has a proven track record of optimizing players. If his decision making improves and he develops more as a catch-and-shoot guy, he could be a solid 3-and-D wing who can beat defenders on the overplay with his long limbs and good quickness. But given his innate tendencies with the ball in his hands, he’s a complicated player for any developing team to optimize, especially if he’s selected in the lottery and comes with elevated expectations. 

McDaniels’ shooting tools are clear; he has a quick pull-up shot, a smooth stroke, and an extra-high release point. He could rise above nearly any collegiate defender and get a shot up.

If the tape ended there, he’d be hailed as a star level prospect, but McDaniels’ efficiency didn’t live up to his early season hype: 40.5% from the field, 33.9% from deep, and a 51.5% true shooting percentage. Per Synergy Stats, 73% of McDaniel’s shot attempts in the half-court came off jumpers, and he finished the season shooting just 35% on them (53rd percentile). Even his off-the-dribble shot, the most alluring part of his game, sits in the 54th percentile. Those aren’t impressive enough numbers for a player who needs the shot to be gold in order to justify playing time. Direct player comparisons can be like comparing apples to onions, considering the variance in college basketball teams’ styles and paces, but among the wings and forwards considered in the late-lottery/first-round range – Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey, Josh Green, Patrick Williams, and Desmond Bane – McDaniels has the second highest usage rate (25.6%, second only to Nesmith) and is last in TS%. 

An efficiency in McDaniels’ game comes in his catch-and-shoot shot, an underused part of his game at Washington; he sank 39.5% (83rd percentile) on 66 attempts, per Synergy. The best scenario for McDaniels is to end up on a team with established creators that sees Jaden as an ancillary off-ball scorer early in his career, emphasizing his catch-and-shoot ability and size as a cutter. He doesn’t have the shooting consistency of the other first-round wings in this class, but he has a stronger likelihood of becoming an efficient shooter than someone who can create offense off of the dribble.

McDaniels has a solid handle and great end-to-end quickness for a player at his size, giving him capable grab-and-go game that should be unlocked with NBA spacing. But the downside to McDaniels’ dribbling ability is his determination to use it; he wants to drive to the basket, but really struggles to get by set defenders off the dribble. And when he can find his way towards the paint, he has no answer for what to do when he hits a wall of defenders. By the time conference season rolled around, Pac-12 teams knew what to do when they saw McDaniels coming off screens and heading downhill – get in his way and disrupt the ball.

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McDaniels shot just 55.9% at the rim, according to Hoop-Math, emphasizing both his lack of touch in the paint and his inability to find buckets when his skinny frame meets contact around the basket. That percentage is again the worst of any of the 1st round wings mentioned earlier. Jaden may be long and quick, but he is not a smooth vertical athlete, and he doesn’t have the pop off the dribble to finish over a crowded paint. He needs space and time to load off both feet if he’s going to reach his peak. While his decent footspeed and length gives him an advantage, his lack of explosiveness and the decision making he showed at Washington doesn’t give me faith that he’ll be a capable face-up scorer at the next level. 

McDaniels is also an underwhelming playmaker. He showcases a sharp pass or two per contest, but many of those come only after he’s run out of dribbling room. He finished the season with a 0.6/1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and was 2nd in the Pac-12 with 100 turnovers – a whopping 4.2 per 40 minutes. If his future team emphasizes using him as a tertiary scorer and limits his dribble drives, it wouldn’t surprise me to see his turnover numbers plummet and his assist numbers jump – but that again requires a team to have a clear vision of how to utilize him in a way he was not at Washington.

Defensively, there reason for both optimism and pessimism about McDaniels’ potential. Washington’s 2-3 zone clouded much of McDaniels’ defensive tape, but he’s clearly too skinny to make an immediate impact in the NBA, and his length and quickness will only compensate so much for his lack of burst. Surprisingly, given his length and quickness, his steal numbers are absurdly low – just 1 steal per 40 minutes, and a 1.4% steal rate(!) – but he did show numerous flashes over the season as a capable and dedicated weakside rim protector. Indeed, his speed and toughness often shrone strongest through his willingness to flash inside and disrupt otherwise open dunks or layups. 

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Finally, McDaniels also led the Pac-12 in both fouls (103, 3.3 per game) and technical fouls (6).

No 19-year-old kid should be overly judged for their emotions on the basketball court, but there were times where McDaniels’ decision making cost the Huskies badly. 

While McDaniels’ rough season at Washington is considered a disappointment for a player once considered a high-lottery lock, it may end up helping him over the course of his career. If he does fall towards the end of the first round, he could end up with a smart team like Miami, Utah, Boston, or Toronto, who could better optimize him in a smaller offensive role while lowering immediate expectations. 

Jaden is not a player the Sacramento Kings should look to select with their possible lottery pick. Sacramento already has enough complicated fits on the roster, and have not proven they can properly optimize project players. A smart team with the right pieces around him could figure out how turn him into a promising multi-level shooter… but I’m not convinced that team is Sacramento.