After three games against three playoff-worthy opponents, the Sacramento Kings sit at 1-2, not exactly a surprise considering their tough schedule to start the season. While any three-game sample size is too small to extrapolate season-long expectations, a few things have stood out over the first few games.
The Kings need De’Aaron Fox
De’Aaron Fox has not exactly enjoyed a stellar start this season. After an All-Star-worthy campaign last year, Fox is averaging 18.7 points, 6.3 assists, and 5 turnovers through his first three games, and his nightly numbers are probably a little more positive than his actual contributions. He’s shooting a paltry 38.6% from the floor, 15.8% from deep, and 60% at the charity stripe. Simply put, Fox hasn’t been good enough for a team that’s severely lacking in top-end talent like the Kings.
It may be easy to glance at Fox’s struggles and blame his lack of free throw attempts (down from 7.2 last season to 5 this year), but before any complaints are lodged against the NBA Officials Twitter account, it’s important to note that no one is getting a friendly whistle this season. Unlike other offseasons, in which rule changes are hotly debated and rarely put into place, the league’s emphasis on not awarding out-of-control offensive players has clearly been prioritized in 2021. Overall, teams are attempting 19.5 free throw attempts per game, which, if that holds up, will mark the lowest average in NBA history. Every player who relies on free throw-drawing is feeling the burn. James Harden is down to three per game. Trae Young is sitting at six. Joel Embiid, the league’s leader in 2020, is also down to six per game.
And this is where De’Aaron needs to make some adjustments. He was never getting an abundance of favorable calls before the rule changes took place, and now he’s been even more limited. Too often, he’s charging two or three defenders in the paint with the sole intent of drawing the whistle, and the more often that doesn’t happen, the more often he seems to repeat the maneuver. Instead of settling for fadeaway three-point attempts or recklessly driving at the rim, Fox needs to play under control, even at top speeds.
Davion Mitchell is legit
It almost feels a little silly to discuss Davion Mitchell’s NBA readiness, as that’s all anyone has talked about in Sacramento over the last few weeks, but DAVION MITCHELL IS LEGIT. Over the first two games of the season, the players he most often defended were Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, CJ McCollum, Mike Conley, and Jordan Clarkson. Through 75 possessions of guarding those high-level offensive contributors, Mitchell held them to a combined 20 points on 7/27 shooting from the field and 3/10 from three-point range, while committing just one shooting foul in all of that time. In total, his opponents are knocking down 31% of their field goal attempts, a decrease of 11.1%, the eighth-best mark in the league.
Davion has also received some incredible compliments from stars like De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, and Steph Curry, and word is spreading around the league about his unwillingness to make anything easy for opposing guards. If Davion continues to enjoy such high praise from so many respected people in the league, he could even have an outside shot at an All-Defense selection, an honor that has only been bestowed on five rookies in NBA history, none of whom were guards.
Mitchell’s offensive potential also showed up against the Golden State Warriors, an aspect of his game that was missing against both the Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz. Part of that slow start could obviously be assigned to a general adjustment to the quicker, bigger, stronger NBA game, but it’s also interesting to note that Davion’s 22-point performance came in a game in which De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Buddy Hield all struggled to score effectively. Until Sacramento’s guards can establish a more synergistic approach to the offensive side of the floor, Kings fans could be seeing quite a bit of your turn, my-turn type of offense early in the season.
One half won’t get it done
The Sacramento Kings have been fantastic in the first half of each of their three games, leading all three contests at halftime. Among all NBA teams, they rank 9th in offensive rating, 9th in defensive rating, and 7th in net rating through the first 24 minutes, and the Kings have looked like a legitimate playoff-race contender during the first half of their games. And then comes halftime.
For whatever reason, opposing teams are making significant adjustments in the locker room, while the Kings are staying stagnant. In a complete reversal of their first-half good fortune, Sacramento ranks sits at 21st in offensive rating, 30th in defensive rating, and 30th in net rating. No team has posted a worse point differential than the Kings in the second half, as they’ve been outscored by 39 points in 72 minutes over three games. Their offense is stalling out and fails to penetrate the lane with any consistency, while the defensive intensity is completely disappearing.
As the Kings look back on their first three games, several lessons can be learned, with none being as important as the need for consistency between the first and the second half. If they can get the final 24 minutes under control, and if De’Aaron Fox can return to and build upon his 2020 self, the Kings have a shot at making some noise this season.
My three takeaways:
This team is fun to watch in the first half
This team is abysmal to watch in the second half
Kayte Christensen is legit
The Warriors were last year’s 9 seed, missing half its roster, and it was a home game at full strength. Let’s stop making excuses like they lost to an elite opponent. It’s the kind of game the Kings have to have, and they got punked.
To your point, while there have been no pushovers on the schedule through three games, the Kings have played the teams that finished 1st, tied for 9th/10th, and 14th in the overall standings last year. The Kings basically got on the plus side by winning in Portland, had a reasonable outcome vs. Utah, and gave the Portland game back last night.
Nine of the fourteen WC opponents had winning records last year. That means roughly 33 of 52 games in the WC would project to be against winning teams, with another 14-15 games coming against winning teams in the East. So, 47 of the 82 games are going to come against winning teams. If we are going to look at every game against a team with a winning record as projected loss, we’ll have to run the table against the losing records to finish 35-47.
Maybe Walton is channeling his inner Jack Bauer and just focusing on the first 24.
Only one takeaway matters:
As Fox continues to stink it up, the drums of Fox and a pick/s for Simmons will grow louder and louder. I wonder if he got injured more than they’re letting on in that Portland game when Nurkic got him in the shoulder/trapezius region?
trading Fox for Simmons would be a catastrophe. I’m not even sure I want Simmons, what with his Diva posturing and inability to shoot the ball (you know, kind of a necessary skill for a good basketball player).
Then again Fox can’t really hit 3’s and his free throw percentages haven’t been spectacular, either. We aren’t exactly imploding on the shooting front if we trade Fox. Look how much Fox drives to the basket – and then look how much Simmons drives to the basket. We suffer a bit from Fox’s shooting but replace that with size and increased percentages around the rim + defense from Simmons + ability to slot Simmons at PF (which is where we lack depth).
Jesus, that didn’t take long…
Fox’s shot looks just ugly. He’s missing badly, not just missing.
No idea why. He just seems like he needs perfect conditions to hit a three. And his free throw shooting is shaky, too.
To make matters worse, he’s pure tunnel vision most of the time, refusing to get his teammates involved.
He’s never been money from from outside 15 feet so I have no optimism he suddenly becomes a killer from deep, but this team does not get to the playoffs without him taking the next step.
Current early-season overreaction: Mildly alarmed
That is nothing new. Fox always hit a few shots and then put up airballs and clankers against the backboard that barely grazed the rim.
He lacks some consistency in form and also seems to lack the muscle memory from long distance.
Is Fox ever going to be “The Guy”? At this point in his career, although we’re only a few games this season, it’s starting to look doubtful. Or as SexyNapear stated, mildly alarming, to say the least.
We need someone better than Fox, if the general consensus is that Fox is our best player. Going into the season, my prediction was this was going to be a semi tank, with Walton probably on his way out mid season, and a complete house cleaning from the Vlade regime.
And that includes Fox for Simmons.
At least there’s less comment today.
Just needs more time to develop.
If they are going to go .500, make the play-in, playoffs, etc., they have to win home games. Good teams would have taken at least 1 of the last 2 games. Has to happen.
You kind of answered your own question there.
I hate when that happens…
I do think that Fox will get himself sorted out, because he’s just too talented to just suddenly become less good.
I don’t think that this is currently a factor in Fox’s numbers, but I do expect over the course of the season, he’s not likely to match the numbers from last year. I base that on the fact that there are more guards on the roster with the potential to get 20+ on any given night. If Fox balances that by eliminating some of the really tough shots, getting assists, and becoming tougher on defense, a drop in scoring won’t be an issue with repercussions.
And I don’t see Hield or Davis staying cold, or Haliburton seeming uncomfortable when he’s on the floor.
Which he should have been in the last four minutes last night.
Davis is a hot and cold player; it would surprise me if he’d suddenly becomes consistently good.
In that same vein, Tyrese won’t become super aggressive overnight. He will still have plenty of nights when he is quiet/deferring.
I also don’t see Barnes sustaining his current play.
In other words: some players will improve a bit, some will regress to the mean.
It is up to the coaching staff to put the best lineups together, maximize the players’ potential and minimize their weaknesses. And that puts a cap on my optimism.
That about sums it up. Some players will stay hot for a while, and some will improve a bit, but there’s not enough good players to pick up the slack when things go south.
Smart point about the NBA making an emphasis to avoid the games being a parade of foul shots and relays. We think of 3s but the 2006 D Wade barrel to the hoop has been relegislated before and perhaps again
Kings Twitter regarding point guard defense. Mitchell: Here are 50 clips. I’m going to break each great to good play down like I’m Hubbie Brown. Let’s get very technical regarding defensive techniques, scheme, and options. Fox: (who is often standing flat footed off the ball and a stride out of position and sometimes getting back cut) “ Good effort tonight. Had some deflections and ___ steals”
Great article. I am most concerned about first half / second half discrepancy. If that doesn’t get fixed soon, it’ll be along year. I’m next most concerned about DeAaron. If he can’t hit the 3, and with the crackdown on fouls, he becomes much less effective. Hopefully his shooting (and that of Buddy and TD) are just early season rust. We shall see.
Takeaways, and takeaways from the takeaways, and takeaways from the takeaways from the takeaways…
-MORE FOX
Takeaway from the takeaway: there are too many guards, only one ball, and now
another good one; it’s gonna be awkward for all of them
Takeaway from that takeaway: bad GM
-BETTER SECOND HALVES
Takeaway from the takeaway: well coached teams adjust, and cohesive teams
work together to play better after half, not rely on hot streaks
Takeaway from that takeaway: bad coach
-MITCHELL LEGIT
Takeaway from the takeaway: McGenius knows talent, but not how to combine it
into a complimentary roster
Takeaway from that takeaway: bad GM (good asst GM though).
Good GM and Head Coach need to be excellent leaders ! Have not witnessed it from either as yet ! Hoping to be proven wrong !
I’ve never seen a GM pilloried for drafting too many good players. Jerry Reynolds himself explained it: “You can always trade talent.”
I’ve been as critical as anyone of McNair’s lack of meaningful improvement of the team, at least outside the draft, but this seems unfair. Jerry Reynolds said it in the offseason – McNair hasn’t done anything really bad, but he hasn’t done anything really good either, at least as far as free agency and trades.
There seems to a lack of urgency to improve the team over the last two offseasons and the trade deadline, or a possibly a belief the team will improve in place. (The Kings were second in the NBA with the number of players returned over last season, so 28 other teams managed to do more work on existing roster improvement.) That being said, I don’t think it’s fair to call McNair a *bad* GM today. If he does something Vlade-level dumb, sure. If the team wins 35 games and nothing gets done at the deadline or offseason, then yeah, that’s bad.
You might sell me on “complacent” or “passive”, but today, “bad” is an unfair assessment.
I believe the Kings are going through a mini tank until they can jettison Walton mid season. Then I believe major moves will follow, but we’ll see.
Davion is crazy talented. Hali is working out what it takes to break thru defenses when they now respect you and guard you hard. Fox is trying too hard to be the alpha now when that’s not what the collective needs. Barnes is amazing and easily one of the best to ever wear the kings uni.
They still look as lost as last year most times when it counts and that’s a direct reflection of the void on the sidelines where a coach is supposed to stand.
The coach is supposed to put them in a position to succeed. The talent takes over from there.
The talent under Walton throws the ball out of bounds and plays isolation offense.
Maybe not a decent team but, they never attempt to reset and run a fixed play. I doubt Walton has any.
Well said.
I wish I could say “Kings are close” but can’t. They could be but so far there are too many flaws.
Fox has been sub-par. In part due to new foul rules but just does not look the same- not as aggressive, not as crafty and not as alpha.
Hali has taken a step back- the league knows him ? Maybe but he needs to adjust
Mitchel is the real deal but fluke has made him into the primary point guard and he dribbles too much. Teams are giving him the shot and he dribbles too much in part to avoid shooting that shot. Offense has become stagnant.
There is no one on the team except Fox who can consistently get a shot- a playmaker.
First half good- second half- the adults come to play.
Lots of guards but all look lost and unsure of roles perhaps.
And I will lose it if I ever have to go to another game vs. the duds where their fans sit surrounding me, jumping like electric eels every time darling lil stephie even touches the balls, yelling foul at every miss and screeching like a kindergarten playground every time he makes one . He was 4/15 on 3’s and 9 for 23 overall- 39%. And all I got was obstructed views, movements like a balloon in front of a used car dealership and demented screams. Spare me. Act like you have been here before and go home.
And Kings need to play better.
Fox’s three point shot has looked ugly. I didn’t realize it was as bad as 15.8%. Now, I’m worrying he put too much muscle on, and he will shoot so bad he will make the year he shot 29% look good.
Please dude…………don’t spend any more time worrying about a GAME that you aren’t playing in and have no control over and will never have any control over. Enjoy it or not. It’s 3 games in……..miniscule small sample size theater signifying nothing.
I mean the Kings are 1-2 and Fox looks terrible. That pretty much sums up where I’m at 3 games into the season. All of this is SSS approved of course. Hopefully it gets turned around but Fox looks lost. Last year he was pulling up and taking short jumpers and floaters. This year he’s just driving into the teeth of the defense and throwing the ball away over and over again. It’s UGLY. I said it in the off-season but I would trade Fox for Simmons. At least it would give the team an identity as a defense first unit that’s a pain in the butt to play against.
Yeah I think Simmons would fit well and would really help this team. Being away from Embiid and Rivers would give him a fresh start and he could be the alpha of this team. I like Fox, but at this point, we don’t need him, but we do need Simmons. Do it Monte!
Exactly. We have a Fox who wants to revolve his game around being like Russel Westbrook. His sub-par 3 point percentages have fallen off a cliff and he keeps driving for either turnovers or missed shots. He hasn’t shown any improvement in free throw shooting, either. Who is the other guy who can drive to the lane better AND play defense? That’s right, it’s Simmons. Why do we want to keep a player who wants to revolve his game around driving to the rim and is less effective at it than the player we’re arguing about trading for?
Be careful what you wish for.
Simmons and Holmes would completely clog the driving lane. Are you ready for even uglier offense?
How about, are you ready for Simmons and Bagley pairing?
And how is it any different than Fox and Holmes? Who would you want to see driving to the basket more? Fox or Simmons?
Oh, definitely. It’s my understanding that Simmons hasn’t missed a single shot so far this season.
I have to wonder about the second half adjustments. Is that on the coach or players? Imo it looked like the coach, but obviously there is enough blame to go around. Kerr was switching up the defense constantly every possession; man, zone, man, man, zone, box&1, man, zone, etc… The Kings looked completely lost. There were several possessions in a row where Tyreese and De’Aaron just passed it between themselves at the top of the key until the clock wound down. Obviously, there was either no coaching scheme there or it was extremely poorly executed. Just gotta figure out which.
As I’ve been annoyed with/assumed from the get-go – we need better wings.
Having lineups that solely contain small guards and bigs is not going to win you many games. Guards will have to defend bigger players which will have them feeling much more tired at the end of games, like we are seeing.
Fox and Haliburton will figure it out but the roster itself is the biggest problem in my eyes.
Badge Legend