Three seasons ago, Sacramento’s front office seemed to hit a mini-lottery with their acquisition of young sharpshooter Kevin Huerter. At the cost of a couple of nothing contracts and a protected first rounder, the Kings snagged a guy who came in and averaged over 15 points per game on 40% shooting from deep while taking almost seven threes per game. Sacramento finished the season 3rd in the Western Conference, and they seemed to have their 24-year-old shooting guard of the future locked up. What better complimentary role player for De’Aaron Fox than a guy who didn’t miss from deep?
Huerter’s production and confidence have crumbled since.
On Monday evening, Head Coach Mike Brown justifiably benched Huerter for the much more effective Keon Ellis. Ironically, Ellis is a 24-year-old shooting guard currently knocking down 45% of his three-point attempts, although he also adds a significant defensive element that Huerter never mastered.
Irony aside, Huerter has been a disaster this season, and he hasn’t been particularly effective for quite a while. Since December of 2022, Huerter has finished only one month shooting above 40% from deep. His three-point percentage dropped from 40% in 2022-2023 to 36% last season to a current conversion rate of just 28%.
More damningly, Red Velvet is simply killing the Kings every time he steps onto the floor, good or bad shooting. His offensive gravity against opposing defenses can no longer justify the lack of actual shooting or the average to below-average other elements of his game. Currently, the Kings score 106.4 points per 100 possessions with Huerter on the floor (444 minutes). With him on the bench (435 minutes), the Kings average 118.1 points per 100 possessions – a differential of 11.7 points. Similarly, the Kings give up 114.6 points per 100 possessions with Huerter on the floor and 109 with him out of the game. Overall, Huerter’s net rating differential is -17.4 on the season.
None of those stats or facts point to Huerter being salvageable, whether for Sacramento’s future production or to try and recoup some sort of trade value, but there is one statistical hope for Huerter returning to some level of positive production: corner three-point shooting.
On the season, Huerter is knocking down 40% of his left-corner three-pointers and 43% of his right-corner triples. Combined, he’s at 42% accuracy from those spots. The issue? He’s only taken 19 of those attempts, compared to 75 shots from above-the-break, in which he’s only making 25.3% of his attempts. When he slumped last year, Huerter showed similar splits. During the 2023-2024 season, Huerter sunk 37% of his left-corner threes (30 attempts), 50% of his right-corner threes (32 attempts), and just 34% of his above-the-break threes (279 attempts). Only eighteen percent of his total three-point attempts came from his areas of strength.
Some of that poor execution lies in Mike Brown’s offensive strategy and dribble hand-off heavy presence. Last season, the Kings ranked 25th in corner three-point attempts, the area in which shooters tend to find the most success, and 4th in above-the-break three-point attempts, the lowest point of conversion for most sharpshooters. However, when considering individuals within that offensive scheme, there’s a massive difference between Huerter and his teammate and primary competition for minutes: Keon Ellis. Thus far this season, Ellis has taken 15 left-corner threes (60% 3P%), 15 right-corner threes (47%), and 26 above-the-break threes (35%). Fifty-four percent of his total three-point attempts are coming from his area of strength this season – a strategic positive within the offense. In a similar trend, last season, Ellis attempted 47% of his three-point attempts from the corner.
In order to salvage Kevin Huerter’s confidence, production, and value, Mike Brown needs to change his role within the offense. Running the dribble handoff with Domantas Sabonis, which accounted for 28% of his offensive possessions last year and 23% of his offensive possessions currently, forces him into above-the-break threes, which right now, he simply can’t hit. Instead, the coaching staff needs to shift Huerter into a simpler role as a knockdown catch-and-shoot three-pointer who punishes stretched defenses from the corner. That will allow Huerter to positively impact the offense, see the ball go through the net more regularly, and maybe, just maybe, restore some confidence in a player who has seen his role and abilities devolve over the past couple of seasons.
Kevin Huerter still may be salvageable, but it’s going to take flexibility from Mike Brown and an approach of solution-creating and adaptability, rather than one of dog-housing and seeing minutes continue to disappear.
Too little, too late. McNair had a long while to get a trade done with our glut of shooting guards. He didn’t pull the trigger, now we’re probably stuck with all of them because their trade value decreased. Would have liked a legit big to complement Sabonis defensively.
Spot on. McGenius should be terminated for this alone. 2 years and no attempt to fill the hole at the 4 to compliment the flawed but talented player you traded for and gave big $ to long term. Makes no sense.
Taking DC over a big this past draft was the final straw imo.
well, with Huerter coming off the bench, he can play the 3. He was not tradeable in the offseason because of his shoulder injury and surgery. He is now, but it’s not necessary. He’s still a good player.
Great stuff. Thanks!
Now let’s see if Brown can be flexible and adaptable.
Yes, great article.
I am doubting the MB part of the equation though, less and less impressed with him the longer this goes.
Big if here.
Is this being sent Monte and Mike via social media? Haha
Tim, you ought to apply for a position in their analytics department. Kings seem to be lacking the knowledge of how to incorporate their players in to spots that will help them succeed.
It only took 17, 18 games to start Keon? Sheesh.
I actually like the odds of him doing this off the bench. I think his minutes need to be staggered against Domas so they don’t share the floor and fall into the DHO that teams have learned to pick apart. If he’s on the floor with guys driving into the hoop (Monk, DDR, Fox), he’s going to find that spot much more often. Good analysis Tim.
+1, Huerter is at his best when he’s also doing the other things. He goes after rebounds well for his size. He has good feel around the basket and a decent handle. But he needs to be set up for success.
What a brutal article title lol.
Your Salvagemento Kangz!
Unfortunately, as long as the team refuses to even attempt to play defense, lineup shuffling is just rearranging the deck chairs.
16th in defensive rating is the best in the Brown era. Not great, but not in the mid 20s.
While having one of the easiest strenngth of schedules so far…
Let’s see if they can keep it up now that they’re hitting the tough part of the schedule.
I doubt it, lol. At least they have been decent?
It’s hard to play defense in transition after missing so many 3pt attempts. One begets the other.
First of all, great article, Tim. As to Huerter’s ability to hit from the corner, and his lack of opportunities to do so, could it be as a negative byproduct of playing with Sabonis?
Domas tends to play from the elbow in order in initiate the DHO with Huerter and Keegan. It’s been the go to play for 3 years now, of which teams have targeted. Is Domas’ positioning there hurting not only Huerter, but everyone’s opportunity from the corner? IMO, the corner opens up more once the ball gets to the paint, but with Domas executing the offense from the elbow, or even a bit beyond, it doesn’t lend to corner opportunities.
My suggestion/idea is to get Domas the ball down on the block or deep into the paint more in order to collapse the defense, or even warrant doubles. This may open up corner opportunities for others with Domas’ superior passing skills. Just a spitballed take, but wanted to get other opinions on the matter.
Here’s a simple tweak to something they have run a lot since Mike Brown got here.
That is a Chicago play. Mark Jones calls it Zoom. Typically, Fox, Monk, or another guard has played the 1 and set a pindown for Huerter playing the 2. Huerter comes off it to get a Domas DHO and usually shoot a three but sometimes drive in for a floater or to dish to Sabonis on the roll.
The tweak is to have Huerter be the 1 and Fox or Monk the 2. Either Fox or Monk can hit that three and they could also dish to Huerter now in the corner or lifting slightly up to where the wing starts.
I like that, Fox and Monk coming off the DHO have the quickness to turn the corner and head to the paint (instead of what normally is a pull up three for either Huerter or Keegan). That would likely draw in the corner defenders leaving an opportunity for an open King on either or both sides.
Nice diagram, by the way.
The diagram is copied from The Basketball Action Dictionary. I should have linked them before. Link
He’s got to do better than looking like Rick Astley or I’m gonna have to give him up.
As soon as I read this comment the electric drum into to the song hit my brain, as I’m sure it will for anyone else who reads it.
Same occurred for me, lol.
It is unanimous. The dribble hand off solves all of the Kings problems. Run it every play. It works in middle school.
Great stuff Tim, contrasting above and below the break 3’s. Huerter is pretty good cutting off the ball, so a corner spot works for him, as a three point threat and cutting back door. He could also start on the wing do a pin down in the corner, as a good pick and pop threat from there. I believe that’s called the… (sorry) corner offense.
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