You have probably heard that the Sacramento Kings have the toughest remaining Strength Of Schedule, and that they have played one of the easiest schedules so far. This has been a common talking point in local media, it comes up in our comment sections, and it’s come up in our staff Slack channel discussions. But it’s time to pump the brakes on that talking point, as it definitely overblown right now.
Our beloved Tankathon has a constantly updating tracker showing remaining SOS. This is useful information late in the season when trying to project how a team might finish, and how it could impact playoff seeding or lotto seeding. But this early in the season? It’s not significant yet.
Looking at those Tankathon rankings now (and I apologize, the specific numbers will be different if you’re reading this after Tuesday’s games start to finish a few hours after I’m writing this) the combined and weighted winning percentage for the Kings remaining opponents is .525. The Spurs, 17th in remaining SOS, are .500. The easiest SOS remaining is Orlando, at .472.
The median win % in the NBA right now is Minnesota and Miami, both at .500. The Spurs are just above, at .529, and the Bucks are next below at .471. So the win percentages of the four teams smack dab in the middle of the league represent the full variability of the current SOS rankings. We’re talking about a difference of 5.3% between the hardest and the easiest remaining schedule in the league. The difference between the Spurs and Bucks is 5.8%. A 5% difference over the course of the season works out to 4 games. Right now is a difference of one game.
Most teams still have to play most of the other teams multiple times. The remaining SOS isn’t really a useful or meaningful measure. Not yet. Looking at that Tankathon link above, the remaining toughest opponents and remaining easiest opponents are pretty similar for the entire league. The only meaningful differentiator is that East teams have 3 or 4 games remaining against the Wizards or the Sixers or the Raptors, whereas the Kings have already played their Raps games and only get to face the Wiz and Sixers twice.
The Kings have their work cut out for them if they want to get this season back on track. We have plenty of issues to worry about without focusing on this. OKC has an easier schedule because they don’t have to play OKC. The Warriors don’t have to play the Warriors. As the current 12 seed in the West, the Kings’ SOS is going to be a little skewed. Win some games, get back on track, move up the standings, and that SOS is going to adjust as well.
The thing that throws off SOS is that we are the only team in the league that doesn’t get to play the Sacramento Kings. That seems unfair.
Imagine how much it would help our three point percentage!
On both ends of the floor!
We’d probably turn the ball over too much, and so would they. Unwatchable.
Would it be a home or away game?
Kings play themselves every game, mostly beating themselves so far
LOL
I saw a bunch of tweets promoting Dianna Russini’s latest Athletic article, the title had something like; “Why I’m worried about the 49ers making the playoffs.” And I thought to myself….
…I’m sure she’s sitting there, filled with worry about the Niners making the playoffs. Sitting behind a computer, worrying. Walking the dog, worrying. Driving her car, worrying. No matter where she goes, worrying about the Niners.
I have stresses, but the Kings remaining schedule ain’t one of em. 🙂
I bet you don’t have warts, either.
Can’t pirate the article?
The SOS is irrelevant because this team is not constructed to be competitive at present. It’s going to be a long season that ends in the lottery and if they get a high pick that’s probably the best outcome for the franchise moving forward.
maybe they can draft the next Dalton Knecht
It has been too soon for for a very long time. Two decades.
I appreciate the effort and the information.
I’m definitely not worried about SOS, way more about how we’re playing. This team has shown it can beat good teams when playing well but we’re definitely not clicking atm.
It’s way too early to discuss the arrangement of the deck chairs on the Titanic!
SoS is like all data points, flawed. But still a data point.
I’m not saying it’s flawed. I’m saying there is no statistically significant difference this early in the season. Being first or last in SOS is meaningless right now.
It was too early to say the team wasn’t playing well. Too early to judge the coaching. Too early to draw conclusions on what the team needed to do schematically, and so on…yet here we are.
I’ve been called a hater and been called an apologist. Doesn’t really bother me.
I think this team has major issues, I don’t think their upcoming schedule is one of them.
That wasn’t meant to be a slight to you, Greg.
There have been many, including Kings podcasters and commenters of various sites, that have said wait to pass judgment until more games are played this season.
Maybe strength of schedule isn’t setting to worry about this early, but the results of first 20ish games have been disappointing thus far, while playing a softball schedule.
What point of the season does it begin to matter?
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