RantDumb Thoughts on the Offseason So Far

Man, that felt different.

For the first time since 2006, the Kings entered the off season with a winning record and fresh off a playoff appearance. The Kings were not going to be afforded the opportunity to spend a lottery pick on Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, DeMarcus Cousins, Thomas Robinson, Ben McLemore, Nik Stauskas, Willie-Cauley Stein, Georgios Papagiannis, DeAaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Tyrese Haliburton, Davion Mitchell, or Keegan Murray.

Instead, the Kings were scheduled to select from the discount rack, outside the lottery. The Kings Herald provided no draft prospect writeups on Wemby or Scoot, both of whom would likely be completely out of the Barclays Center by the time the Kings selected at 24.

We re-adjusted our collective thinking, going from hoping for a franchise savior to hoping for a rotational piece, hopefully a stretch four or a rangy wing. Or maybe we wind up trading the pick for a player that could help out more quickly and reliably.

And then the draft started, and we sat around for two and a half hours waiting for our turn to pick. Some of us (mercifully) muted the proceedings, while others committed fully, relishing the pain of the broadcast as though it was Harrison Barnes missing the game four shot on an endless loop (we’ll get back to Barnes a little later).

24 arrived, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper was selected. While OMP had the potential to click a lot of boxes for the Kings, his ability to contribute immediately was at least a bit of a question, and he was certainly less polished than the prior picks of this front office. But maybe that was the mindset for a front office drafting closer to the end of the first round than the beginning of it.

We were quickly informed that the Kings had traded the rights for Prosper, along with Richaun Holmes and his 2/$25m contract to Dallas for a trade exception. Excitement grew as the Kings became one of roughly a half dozen teams with excess of $30m in cap space, and they were the only playoff team among this group. The Kings were going to be players in free agency!

The evening continued, and the Kings moved up from 38 to 34 to select Colby Jones, a player that would not have been inappropriate at 24. Good pick, we thought, but our attention had already turned to free agency. A collective “OK?” was uttered when the Kings selected Jalen Slawson, with a few draft die hards lamenting that Trayce Jackson-Davis was still on the board.

We walked out of draft night kind of underwhelmed – is that a fair statement? We could have had (for example) Brice Sensabaugh, Jones, and Jackson Davis, but our “haul” was Jones and Slawson. But this front office had earned at least a bit of patience from us, so I think that overall attitude around here was “wait and see – hope there’s more to come.”

Fast forward to today, and we have basically the same team as last year, with a couple of tweaks. I think that it is fair to say that this was not what we were expecting the moment that the 24 and Holmes were shipped out.

538 words into this drivel (I can drivel adeptly with either hand, don’t you know), this seems like a good place to start. The Kings could have simply waived and stretched Holmes and kept the pick. However, the cost of that would have been $5m a year for five years, plus the money for Prosper, which starts at roughly $2.7m this season and would be at around $14m for the first four seasons. The Kings picked up about $38m in payroll space with this deal, or about $8m a year for the next four seasons and $5m in year five. This makes a lot of sense, especially for a team that is good now and needs some help at stretch four and the wing.

…and then we re-signed Barnes (insert record scratch sound here). And at $18m a year (insert sad trombone sound here). 3/$54m. What in the ever loving…

And then Jerami Grant signed a 5/$160m contract. And Kyle Kuzma took $102m over four years. $102m over three to Khris Middleton. $108m over four years for RFA Cam Johnson. 4/$80m for Dillon Brooks. DILLON BROOKS!!! Rui Hachimura got close to Barnes money to stay in LA (3/$51M). As the ink dried on the various contracts, the Barnes deal went from WTF to pragmatic signing. Christian Wood is still out there as of this writing, and your mileage on him may vary (I like him), but the Kings took the bird in the hand, the sure thing, the guy that (and this is not to be underestimated) wanted to be here.

It is an unfortunate fact for Barnes that the collective fan base probably remembers him for missing the game 4 final shot, instead of his efforts throughout the season, without which the Kings would not have had the opportunity to even play that game 4.

In my pea head, there are two distinct NBA seasons. There is the regular season and there is the playoffs. I have never been a believer that there is one winner and twenty-nine losers per season. I think that several teams can have successful regular seasons, and then there is a winner of the playoff tournament. In this regard, the Kings had an overwhelmingly successful regular season, and if you factor in expectations they may have had the most successful regular season in 2022-23. They then took the defending champs to seven games in the playoffs. Yes, Barnes converting on that shot changes the trajectory of the playoffs for the Kings. So does a healthy De’Aaron Fox. Or a team that almost collectively lost the ability to convert from deep (silver lining – a bit of a coming out party for Keegan Murray by the time it was all said and done). 

Harrison Barnes played every game for the Kings last season. Davion Mitchell (six years Barnes’ junior) and Murray (8 years) missed two games. Domantas Cyborgus missed three. Only Domas logged more total minutes than Harrison Barnes.

No doubt about it, the Barnes season has a “run it back” vibe to it, and it does not address the defensive issues at either the three or the four. But there is a stable consistency and reliability to be found in Barnes’ game, as well as the absolute known ability to prioritize the needs of the team of the need to get his own. While it would have been a legitimate question to ask if Kyle Kuzma could defer to Fox, Sabonis, and perhaps eventually Murray, there seems to be little question as it pertains to Holmes. And for what it’s worth, Mike Brown had him on the floor at the end of game four, Fox threw it to him, he took the shot without hesitation, and it was a good shot. It’s not horseshoes, so no points given for being close. But my guess is that no one is questioning this signing if that shot goes in, and that seems like the absolute smallest of sample sizes to judge whether or not you want a reliable, known, liked player back under a market reasonable contract. 

The Kings went on to trade for Chris Duarte, re-sign Trey Lyles and Alex Len, pick up the option on Kessler Edwards, and sign Sasha Vezenkov, converting the 49th pick from a year ago into the Greek League MVP.

All in all, the Kings retained their top eight minutes players from 2022-23. They basically traded Terence Davis, Chimezi Metu and Holmes for Duarte, Vez and Jones, as well as…

Extending Domantas Sabonis. It’s done, folks! No hand wringing next summer. No question about the core or direction of this roster. This team, which won 48 games after an 0-4 start last season, has a core of Sabonis, Fox, Murray, and Kevin Huerter under contract for the next three seasons. Stability, continuity, synergy, consistency. All of the things that we have begged for the past decade and a half have seemingly been delivered. What will we find to bitch about next (don’t worry, I assure that we will find something to bitch about next, but without paper bags on our heads)?

Is this a perfect roster? Absolutely not. Is it an improved roster? I think it is. Does the roster have any albatross contracts? As long as Fox and Sabonis stay healthy, no.

The defense is still an absolute concern. But if the Kings can figure out a way to improve their defense by one possession per quarter and stay reasonably healthy at the top of the roster, they are probably a team that flirts with 55-60 wins next season.

There are few teams in the West that you can write off for this coming season. The Spurs will be on the outs, riding the wave of Wembymania for the year. Houston is better but still a bit of a mess. Portland is going to be weird, even after Dame is dealt. After that, you probably once again have a dozen teams whose seasons will rely heavily on team health. To wit, LeBron James has 65,748 NBA minutes under his belt. Fox, Sabonis and Murray have 28,090 – combined. In the West, the Grizzlies, Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Pelicans, and Mavericks are all dealing with load management and dependability challenges that are currently not on the Kings’ radar. Yes, that can turn on the top of an opponent’s shoe. But the Kings have a team that won 48 games last year while getting to know each other and their new coach, and they have brought back basically the entire core, a year older but not old, a year wiser, a year where they learned where they are and what it may take to further improve.

Was this the off season that I was dreaming of? Not really. Is next season going to be a sure-fire step up? Oddly, I think there is a scenario where they win more games but finish lower in the West. That said, health and nothing more than an incremental improvement on defense could make next season one for the ages in Sacramento. I’d probably have to go back to 2002-03 to find a season that I was looking forward to with greater hope and anticipation. I sure would not have envisioned that two summers ago, and would have had to squint really hard to see it last summer. I’m still getting used to people coming into my office and complimenting me on my Kings décor – it went from ironic (or just plain sad) to cool in one year (disclaimer: My Jerry Reynolds Carl’s Jr. trading card is ALWAYS cool).