Welcome back to the Mailbag edition of the 30Q series! Quite a few of you asked quite a few good questions, but only a few are making the cut!
Let’s dive right in!
From Rob Hessing: Provided that there are no major changes to the roster between now and the beginning of the regular season, what do you see as the rotation and minutes distribution for the team (with standard health)?
“Who will the starters be? isn’t exactly what this question is asking, but it’s as good of a place as any to start the breakdown. For perhaps the first time in a long time, Kings fans can look at this roster and confidently name four of the five starters (Harrison Barnes doesn’t count): De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, and Domantas Sabonis. Two of those contributors slot in at obvious positions, Fox at point guard and Sabonis at center, while the other two seem carry a little more mystery than is actually necessary. While it’s true that Murray can play the three or four spot, and DeRozan has played at the two, three, and four spots in his career, DDR hasn’t suited up at shooting guard for more the majority since the 2016-2017 season. In fact, he’s essentially converted into a full-time forward over the last several seasons:
| Season | % of time at SF/PF |
| 23-24 | 99% |
| 22-23 | 100% |
| 21-22 | 98% |
| 20-21 | 99% |
| 19-20 | 99% |
It’s been six seasons since DeRozan spent more than 1% of his time at shooting guard. Suffice it to say that the starting small forward and power forward positions are accounted for, and it doesn’t really matter who is named to which official position between DeRozan and Murray.
With that historical precedent accounted for, the remaining position to fill for Mike Brown and his staff is shooting guard, and that’s where things get interesting. The two choices are obvious: the less proven but more recently successful Keon Ellis, or the more experienced but somewhat disappointing Kevin Huerter.
For this group, and for their needs, Keon Ellis feels like the correct choice. With the cohort of already determined starters, the Kings will have an overpowering offensive lineup. Fox can score from all three levels, DeRozan thrashes defenses in both the mid-range (most attempts in the NBA last season) and in the paint, and Sabonis is the glue that holds everything together, leaving defense as Sacramento’s number one need. And that’s where Ellis can fill the last hole in what should be one of the best starting five’s in the league.
Last year, the Kings improved their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) by 3.2 points, good for the 78th percentile with Ellis on the floor. In addition, opposing teams’ effective field goal percentage dropped by three percentage points, ranking in the 91st percentile. On an individual level, Ellis was in the 98th percentile for blocks in his position (1.5%) and in the 85th percentile (2.2%) in steal percentage. Even with his still maturing offensive game, Sacramento outscored opponents’ by 2.8 points per 100 possessions with Ellis on the floor last season. Kevin Huerter, even with his offensive gravity that far outweighs Ellis’, only account for an improvement of 1.3 points per 100 possessions.
With the argument for the starters out of the way, it really comes down to who’s going to regularly appear off of the bench. Devin Carter will stay out of the picture for now, just to keep things simple, leaving a few guys up for a few minutes.
Malik Monk is going to average at least 25 minutes per game for the Kings next year, and he’ll undoubtedly take the majority of the minutes at backup guard, with Fox, Ellis, and Monk likely rotating in and out to take on most of the guard floor time.
Kevin Huerter will also get his due off of the bench, until the Kings find someone to take him on, and depending on his readiness, he’ll see time at both backup shooting guard and small forward for a Kings roster that is severely lacking a backup wing.
Rounding things out, Trey Lyles certainly deserves some minutes at the backup 4 and 5 spot, and Alex Len will own the true backup center slot unless Orlando Robinson surprises everyone at camp.
Here’s how things will likely break down at a per-minute basis, at least to start the year:
| Player | Minutes |
| Fox | 36 |
| Ellis | 28 |
| DeRozan | 36 |
| Murray | 34 |
| Sabonis | 34 |
| Monk | 28 |
| Huerter | 20 |
| Lyles | 16 |
| Len | 8 |
Things will shift once Devin Carter is fully healthy, with Huerter and potentially Ellis losing minutes to him, and there could be a young breakout player for Sacramento, but as of now, this looks to be the group who will suit up on a nightly basis for Mike Brown and company.
And that’s a damn sight better group than we’ve seen in Sacramento in a long, long time.
Someone was asking recently if we’re overvaluing Devin Carter and such kind of comments make me believe that we do, massively. Things “will shift”, not even “might shift”, as if it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll take away minutes from established players.
If this team is playing well and in the thick of the play-off positioning game once he is cleared to play again, I don’t expect him to get anything more than spot and garbage minutes, barring serious injury issues.
If he gets more, than we either have those injury concerns, we’ve given up on the season, one or more backcourt players stink or he’s a plug and play stud. Hope it’s the last option, but not counting on it.
Totally agree. I think there’s probably a 20% chance he see real minutes (consistently more than 10 a night once he’s “healthy to play”).
with Huerter still here I think it’s in the team’s best interest to treat Devin Carter as the 2025/26 1st round draft pick we don’t have. Which… is kind of cool in a not so cool way.
I was thinking the same- the pay back for the Huerter trade loss.
You read my mind. DC may not even suit up next season let alone “shift” the minutes’ allocation.
Solid point. My guess is he may be Davion Mitchell light.
Before folks throw a beer a me, Mitchell came out of college with a list of accolades and hardware, including a NCAA championship and a Defensive Player of the Year Award. The Kings picked him 9th in a deeper draft of 2021. Carter, on the other hand, was picked 12th in a weak draft and has minor accolades, with arguably his biggest chip is being a son of an NBA player. I’m not knocking the guy, but who was more hyped and proven coming out of college? My hunch is Mitchell.
From all that, (and with removing the purple glasses) if Carter can just crack the impact that Davion had for the Kings, it’s a win. But to assume he’s the next all-nba defensive team type of player is extremely generous.
I agree on the starters and rotation. Hopefully Carter is as advertised and contribute this season, but as of now he is a non-factor.
Kings rookies are usually over hyped- Jimmer, WCS, Davion, B-Mac, Sauce Castillo etc. I hope Carter is as expected and better than Davion. and he may not play this year. If he recovers same as Huerter then it is March. But then- no contact, no experience, no wind or NBA shape. Would take a minor miracle.
Thanks for the deep dive, Tim. Very well laid out.
I know it’s past time to ask the questions but I really need this one answered: What the heck is up with signing Dexter Dennis and then waiving him three hours later?
Looks like they did the same thing with Justin Powell: https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/transactions
On some level I don’t really care since these are Exhibit 10-level players, but I’m still curious what oddity of the NBA rulebook makes it make sense to sign a player and then waive him the very same day.
Hoops Rumors Glossary: Exhibit 10 Contract | Hoops Rumors
My guess is it has something to do with getting them to Stockton.
Just read those names, nearly all at the start of their primes. This roster is so good.
I became a Kings fan in 2003 at 8 years old and so while I saw the golden years, they are a faint blur in my mind. This will be the best roster I and many other young(ish) Kings fans have ever witnessed in our lives. The DeRozan era may even mark the beginning of the greatest Sacramento team of all time. I am already nostalgic to reflect on this team we are yet to witness.
Safe to say, I’m ready for the season to begin.
The current core will not compete with the early 2000s core in terms of wins and losses and overall success. This core hasn’t even won a playoff series yet, let alone sniffed a title multiple times like the early 2000s core.
That’s damn good answer to a fun question. I thoroughly enjoyed that.
Minutes breakdown seems highly accurate.
I also loved the part about how it doesn’t really matter who starts at PF and SF between Deebo and Spock. Whoever is the bigger offensive threat at either forward spot, Spock will guard. Seems logical.
They aren’t called Woj Bombs – he retired!
Now they are Sham Wows!
A move to avoid the second apron by the Wolves? Or were there chemistry concerns? Not sure getting Randle will alleviate those.
A hard business. I ain’t specifically a KAT fan, but he was a good guy for 9 seasons, lived through the bad years, played through the dead of multiple families and raced back from injury last year to finally taste playoff success only to get traded without advance warning.
Cold world.
Wolves just took a defensive hit. Randle is a downgrade from KAT and DDV is now just a bench guy behind ANT who’s likely to get less minutes. That’s good for the Kings.
Mike Connelly was/is very good for the TWolves, but at 2 weeks from 37 yrs old, and entering his 18th season, the 6 footer is down to 28 mpg.
My guess is that AntMan is used more to lead the offense with rookie Rob Dillingham in the mentored Mike Connolly role.
This defensively strong team – Rudy Gobert in the middle, Jaden (not Jalen) McDaniels, Nikeil Alexander-Walker at wing, the increasingly emerging Naz (dammit, not a King) Reid, adds another solid defender in DiVincenzo.
Randle takes a lot of the burden of shot creation away from it being solely AEdwards. KAT had that role, and has a top 5 salary despite not being an All-NBA (he was gifted Domas spot as an All-Star as well).
I like the trade for Minny.more than NYK, and the thought of KAT and Thibs back together makes me smirk after that hilarious Jeff Teague bull session about Jimmy Butler in Minnesota. I will admit my bias, I am not a Karl Anthony-Towns fan. I just don’t like his game. And New York Knick fans ragged on Randle, they are going claw at KAT even worse, IMO.
On the other hand, for the Knicks to send out Julius Randle at the expense of DiVincenzo, who was spectacular for them this last playoffs, and break up that ‘Nova Wildcat squad is also a statement.
Agree with every word. Idk if even in pure talent KAT is better than JR so as a 1 for 1 swap it’s questionable enough for the Knicks. Throw in DD and a 1st rounder, as well as getting off KAT’s contract, I’d say this is a great deal for the Wolves. It certainly gives them a lot more options moving forward without sacrificing much, if anything, on the talent end. With that said, idk if it makes them better in the short term and right before camp I think this team suddenly has a lot to sort out in terms of chemistry/roles. I expect a slow, clunky start to the season for them. Kings should take advantage in their season opener.
The Knicks have decided that going all in on length, shooting, defense, and rebounding around JB is their path forward. It’s not a bad theory, but they don’t have much depth, have completely committed themselves financially, and are probably going to miss JR’s ability as a secondary scorer and playmaker. Just seems like a very knee-jerk and committal decision when you didn’t even get to see the Nova Knicks play together as a full unit. I also wonder what kind of attitude KAT will bring given such a sudden and abrupt end to his Minnesota tenure. He could be unfocused and not totally bought in to what NY is doing, at least at the start.
My grades –
Minny: A-
Knicks: C+
Towns has a cap hit $49.205 million for the 2024-25 season, so the Knicks will be $53.230 million over the cap with his addition, sitting $9.874 million over the first apron but still $924,835 under the second apron.(NYK sent DeQuan Jeffries to Charlotte in this deal as well)
Randle has a cap hit of $28.939 million this season while DiVincenzo will account for $11.445 million against the cap, meaning Minnesota will now be $92.417 million over the cap, $21.166 million over the first apron and $10.367 million over the second apron
This deal allows Minny to off load Randle, who is a player option RFA this Summer, by February trade deadline. He’ll be sasier to move than KAT and can at least get them under the $econd Apron$$
Interesting. So Randle is almost certainly going to get moved again, unless they just let him walk in FA?
One extra wrinkle in all the financial (and competitive) considerations is the legal ownership battle in Minny.
Yes Yes.
Small market team in the second apron with anownership custody battle.
Tim Connelly/Matt Lloyd doing some shrewd maneuvering under stress.
And Knicks Leon Rose/Scott Perry/Gersson Rosas seizing the moment with New York on a momentum upswing.
With the big additions of Bridges and now KAT to fill in not just for Randle but also the loss of Hartenstein (hopefully Mitchell Robinson stays healthy or healthier) they are a worthy challenger to Boston (I’m not sold on Philly, Pacers? maybe and Orlando is young and unproven. Miami is tough but up in the air, talent-wise)
# family members, not families
In other news, Kings related:
Trey Lyles expected to miss 3 weeks
Jordan McLaughlin 2 weeks as training camp is set to open next week
(Kings host a pre-season opener vs. GSW on 6 October)
Obligatory…
love this, rec’d
Lol, never gets old, even with Youngman no longer with the Kings.
I should note, Pete is well aware of and loves the gif! Happy memories! He is a great follow on the socials.
They got hurt in the off-season???? That sucks. Guess we will see if Robinson/McDaniels can handle any backup 4 minutes
I just saw this message on Twitter:
https://x.com/SeanCunningham/status/1839803148317405416
That’s pretty huge news, because re-evaluated after 3 weeks is different than “expected to miss 3 weeks”. Monte may need to feel a lot more urgency to bolster the PF position.
Seems about right. Inevitable injuries will open up minutes for the deep bench guys. I expect Carter to have to earn minutes either based on injury opportunities or underperformance by established players. I can’t see him returning from injury as a rookie and displacing minutes from a player that is providing quality minutes.
For those that want to play around with it, at The Hoops Geek you can create a basketball rotation for whatever team. You have to enter every name manually, but I found it pretty interesting. Rotations are often criticized. That’s because they are hard. Here is mine for the first half:
So Skal is back?
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