Welcome back to Chainmail!
After breaking down one of the chainmail questions in-depth, it’s time for the rapid fire edition!
Let’s dive right in!
From RikSmits
When do you punch the reset button and break the Fox/Domas duo up?
If this team is unable to get to the second round this season and next?And what is needed to keep working to build the team around the Fox/Domas duo?
Reaching the WFC in the next 2/3 years?
Tim: This question kind of reminds me of an ever-present challenge of leading employees. When do you punch the reset button on a person or a team? Typically when progress stops and that person or group has fallen well short of a stated goal. The Kings have grown from laughingstock to playoff-ish team in two years, which is a reasonable timeline, and now they need to keep following that timeline. If in the next couple of years, they’re basically where they are today, things need to change, from all three areas of coaching, managing, and personnel on the floor. That could be both players traded, one, or some other move that pushes Fox or Sabonis down the food chain for a premiere talent.
In the same vein, you keep building around the duo as long as progress continues. The team needs to reach contention status in the next year or two and remain in that slot for the next several seasons. What does contention status mean? The definition can vary from person to person, but it typically lands somewhere in the range of a legitimate battle in the second round to the Conference Finals.
From jwalker1395
Keegan has been totally overlooked this offseason. He’s in the third year of his career and now playing for his next paycheck. Should we expect a big leap from him? What are your expectations?
Tim: I don’t know that I agree that Keegan has been overlooked this season. Sure, he hasn’t been the primary talking point, but isn’t it kind of nice that we’re not betting the success of the season on a third-year player? That’s what the front office did last year and the results spoke for themselves. Instead, we’ve gotten to discuss the assimilation of a great player who solves several offensive needs for Sacramento.
Personally, I don’t expect a big leap from Keegan. His shooting will likely normalize, and I expect his defensive tenacity to remain the same, but the Kings don’t need him to be more than a quality starter, and I believe that’s where he’ll land.
From SMF-PDXConnection
We know how much of a rollercoaster ride the NBA can be, how difficult it can be for teams and organizations to have stability year to year, to stay competitive and improve and keep windows open.
How would you project the next five years of the Kings based on likely* best case scenario, realistic scenario, and likely* worst case scenario?
*I include likely here because we could all say the best case is the Kings are the first five-peat champions in the league or that Sacramento floods and causes every player to demand a trade.
Tim:
Likely best case scenario: The trio of Fox-Sabonis-DeRozan plays extremely well this season, Keegan takes a jump in the 25-26 season, and the Kings make the Finals in two years. You pick if they win or not.
Realistic scenario: DeMar DeRozan helps Sacramento reach the second round of the playoffs twice in the next three years, but the Kings can’t find the personnel to make the leap beyond some heavily fought second round battles.
Worst case scenario: DeMar DeRozan ages terribly, the Kings continue to putter along in the play-in tournament, Monte McNair and Mike Brown are fired, and Vivek hires Mark Jackson as President of Basketball Operations.
From Hobby916
What changes in the offensive scheme, now with DeRozan, do you think the staff will implement?
Tim: Last season, the Kings ranked 28th in the league in pick-and-roll frequency, accounting for just 13.8% of their possessions. The vast majority of their offense was run through Domantas Sabonis in the high and low post, and while there was nothing inherently wrong with that, it often seemed that if an opposing team could sniff out those handoffs, the Kings offense simply stalled. There was rarely a Plan B, outside of hoping Fox or Monk could take over the game singlehandedly.
Conversely, DeMar DeRozan ranked in the 94th percentile in pick-and-roll frequency, as he paired up with big men in 36.8% of his possessions. With that in mind, as well as the frequency of DeRozan’s mid-range attempts (he led the NBA last season), the Kings should see a significant shift away from top-of-the-key dribble handoffs and a whole lot more of downward momentum on the offensive side of the floor.
From SactownLegendz
Will Mike Brown be on the hot seat if the Kings don’t make the post season again, or have a 45 win type year and get bounced out quickly in the 1st round?
Tim: Some context is needed around why the Kings failed to make the postseason or were quickly bounced. Assuming that the team was generally healthy, yes, both Monte and Mike will be on the hot seat come summer time. More than likely, Brown would go first, followed by Monte if success wasn’t found in the following season.
The good news? I don’t think the Kings are headed for the play-in or a first round exit.
From deepshot22
What do you see as the finishing order of the Pacific Division? I can see the Kings holding off the Suns for the division title, followed by the… by the… hell if I know! The Clippers lost PG and I don’t trust Harden or Kawhi to stay healthy. The Lakers got older and the Warriors have an awful lot of eggs in one man’s basket.
Tim: Kings, Suns, Warriors, Lakers, Clippers
From scottymusprime
What would the circumstances have to be for you to be ok with the Kings making a win-now move at the trade deadline this year a la the Pacers going after Siakam or Raptors going after Kwahi? Something where the Kings give up real (possibly painful) assets to get what could be a rental, but might move them towards true contender status?
Tim: The Kings have De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan. If the right star-level player becomes available, and he’s the right fit, you absolutely pay the piper to get him here. I’m trading Keegan. I’m trading picks. I’m trading whoever is necessary to get the Kings to the Conference Finals or beyond.
Thank you for answering my question with good insight, and curse you for invoking Mark Jackson for the worst case scenario. I worry someone will say his name three times at the G1C and he’ll appear like Beetlejuice.
Thanks for answering my question. I hope to see a more diversified offense, with multiple ball handlers capable of PnR, DHO, ISO, drive and kick, etc. As you noted, being predictable makes the offense easier to defend, so come at teams with varied looks and try to take the league by storm once again.
Good response to Rik’s question IMO. Reasonable to be patient. However, the Kings went from laughingstock to playoffs two years ago. Missed the playoffs last year. If they miss it again this year, it is probably time to reset to some degree. Get some different players in a big way. If they make it to the second round and have a hard-fought series, I’d be okay continuing onward.
Thanks for the response! Although I’d argue it proves my point Keegan is overlooked. Why shouldn’t we expect a third year player who has shown two-way potential to take a jump? Absolutely correct the Kings are no longer banking on a jump from a Keegan, but why couldn’t he still make one?
I think it’s very possible, especially since DDR should take a lot of weight off his shoulders. I believe he will really excel within a more defined role and have the best season of his young career.
I thought last season there were too high expectations for Keegan. This season I expect him to have more open 3s, and as you said, a more defined role.
Great answers to great questions, Tim!
I’m on pins and needles when it comes to Keegan. I still think he’s 3rd or even 2nd fiddle material. With the addition of DeRozan, the pressure is off and he lurk in the shadows as Peja did for many years. We may blink and he’s more than an all-star.
To Tim’s point, if the Kings are just and inch or two from Finals contention and Keegan is the asset to get the final piece, you have to pull the trigger. I’m not entirely sure what that piece may be, but I give it a very small chance of happening with the current roles and roster.
Butt pulled scenario: Keegan, Huerter, Lyles and picks gets you a healthy Kawhi Leonard for a Finals run…much like what Toronto did. Again, very small chance…like less than 1%.
Thanks for answering my question, and also for good answers to other questions.
I agree with the response, but one thing I am struggling with is the matter of health. Two seasons ago we were very healthy. Last season was a bit worse, but i believe we were still well above arerage, health-wise.
There are few ways to calculate this, obviously, but there is a webstite where they weigh the lost time on the basis of payroll (so players with high salary are weighed more heavily), which is not perfect but better than just take all minutes lost regardless whether its top players or end of the bench players. I can’t find the darned website.
So injuries are not in any event a cop-out if this team fails growing.
It’s funny to me that two seasons ago, when other fans argued that the Kings had extreme injury luck, Kings fans evehemently disagreed and claimed that it was a credit to the young core and training staff etc. But when we faltered last year at the end of the season fight to avoid the play-in, Kings fans had no problem whatsoever to hide behind injury problems. Seems inconsistent.
Appreciate the really solid feedback on my question, all of the answers were pretty good and spot on. Good questions too from everyone….let’s make the guys work a little, haha.
Badge Legend