It’s a weird time of the season in the NBA and an especially polarizing stretch for the Sacramento Kings. What seems to be a majority of the fanbase is tired of the “technically they could still make the play-in” conversation that’s been happening for at least a month now. The other side of the conversation revolves around obtaining the best draft lottery odds by losing every remaining game possible.
Sorry to be that guy, but technically they could still make the play-in. With four games remaining, the Kings are sitting three and a half games behind the 10th seeded San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs have five games remaining, including one against the tanking Portland Trail Blazers who they just beat handily. So, maybe don’t bet on it, but it does change the dynamic of the final stretch of basketball for Sacramento.
Yet, with De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Richaun Holmes, and Terence Davis are all likely to miss the final games, the remaining players, particularly Davion Mitchell and Damian Jones, have made sure to keep that possibility a reality.
Mitchell and Jones have been posting the best numbers of their careers and Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu, Trey Lyles all have had their moments throughout the road trip as well. Keep in mind that four of the five during that trip came against teams that are probably not prioritizing winning games – the Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic, and Houston Rockets twice.
This is also just the time of year that these outlier performances tend to take place due to the lowered stakes. Robert Covington (43) and Amir Coffey (32) just posted career-high scoring nights. In the last week, there’s been career-high scoring performances from Jordan Poole (38), Killian Hayes (26), Obi Toppin (20), Dorian Finney-Smith (28), Jalen Green (33), Alperen Sengun (27), Bruno Fernando (17) and Cade Cunningham (34).
Skal Labissiere scored 32 points for Sacramento in March of his rookie season in 2017 and would never surpass that tally. The point is, it’s not rare for players to have the best games of their entire careers as the season winds down and motivations get muddied. It also doesn’t mean that these breakthroughs are pointless, especially for younger players or pending free agents who have something to prove. Every player’s situation is vastly different.
For Davion Mitchell, it’s his opportunity to show that he can be the primary initiator of an NBA offense. We’ve seen what the Baylor product is capable of on the defensive end since Summer League, and that hasn’t faded while he’s been asked to shoulder a larger offensive burden.
The road trip was the best basketball of Mitchell’s rookie season. He set his career-high of 28 points along with nine assists in an overtime showdown with the Phoenix Suns right before the trip and kept rolling from there. Mitchell averaged 20.6 points and 8.6 assists on 46.7/28.0/83.3 shooting splits throughout the five-game trip.
It goes beyond the entertaining highlights Mitchell’s logged. He scored more than 20 points in four of the five and tallied no less than seven assists on the trip which includes a career-high of 10. He’s the primary option out there for Sacramento and it’s worked, against the aforementioned poor competition. There’s undeniable progress in his confidence as a scorer, aggressiveness around the rim, and vision.
For Mitchell, it’s simply that De’Aaron Fox is the Sacramento Kings’ max player. He has to find a way to fit alongside him ideally, not vice versa. What we’ve seen from Mitchell is promising, but it’s unlikely we see him lead the team in field goal attempts too often next season.
Damian Jones has been the other primary highlight as he’s fresh off a 17 point, 17 rebounds, two assists, and six blocks Friday night performance in Houston. That’s a career-high in rebounds and blocks for Jones. He recorded an average of 16.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks on a ridiculously efficient 75 percent from the field during the trip.
That efficiency has been the product of his increased opportunity and effectiveness as a rim-runner and roll man in the pick-and-roll. Rudy Gobert, who is leading the league in field goal percentage this season, is currently averaging 71.2 percent from the field. Jones has been straight-up elite in that aspect of the game. That’s where the significant takeaway lies in his closing stretch.
The rebounding is also phenomenal and shouldn’t be downplayed, nor should his rim protection. We’ve seen Jones have moments in his career as a capable perimeter defender in switches, but the Sacramento Kings played more zone defense than they probably have all season in their two most recent Houston games.
Again, context matters for these guys. Damian Jones is also averaging 29.1 minutes per game in the last five as opposed to the 15.9 minutes he was getting prior to the trip. After hopping around like crazy, Jones is making a strong case that he deserves to be a backup center in the NBA rather than a third-string flyer as he heads into unrestricted free agency.
When it comes to Sacramento, his future is complicated due to the roster construction. Domantas Sabonis has an argument for being the best player on the team and will play 35+ minutes a night. Playing a non-shooting big, like Jones, alongside Sabonis and Fox would cause serious spacing concerns, meaning Jones is probably only talking about roughly 13 minutes a night if he were to return. Oh, and Alex Len is still under contract heading into next season.
As impressive as Damian Jones has been, it may be difficult for the Kings to prioritize bringing him back next season and there’s little opportunity that can be offered. Some of the other free agent centers on the market include Thomas Bryant, Montrezl Harrell, Chris Boucher, Javale McGee, and Mo Bamba. Jones very well may be the best of that group, but what difference is there between him and the number two guy listed? How much money is it worth investing in a backup center?
Donte DiVincenzo is due for the largest payday of his life this offseason, which has got to add some pressure to his personal conclusion of his season. He’s difficult to gauge at times with his loud blunders that are eerily reminiscent of Buddy Hield, but DiVincenzo does all the more quiet, little things right more often than not.
The Villanova product logged at least eight assists in two of the last five games and less than six rebounds just once. Of course, just like with Davion Mitchell, the defensive impact that DiVincenzo provides has remained throughout.
Chimezie Metu has been pretty straightforward when talking to the media about his desire to prove that he deserves more minutes. There are times he succeeds and times when he fails, but you can see that desire in his recent play.
Trey Lyles, who has a $2.6-million team option next season, seems to be making that an easy decision to make. As with the others, his recent point and rebound totals are misleading due to a significantly increased opportunity to play and shoot. But, that’s a well-priced backup forward depending on how Maurice Harkless’s situation plays out.
The final stretch of the NBA season is a tough time to evaluate talent, potential, and fit for NBA teams that are facing truly outlier circumstances. The Kings are without their two star players, two rotational pieces, and the play-in looks less and less likely by the day. Not to mention, head coach Alvin Gentry’s future in Sacramento is in question.
Some of these flashes are bound to translate into reliable production headed into next season and beyond with a return to more typical circumstances. Some of them will not. It’s up to Sacramento’s front office to decide which is what while watching this final stretch of the 2021-22 NBA season while a handful of offseason decisions are rapidly approaching.
I like to watch the games and make my own assessment who I think are the best college players. Recognizing I can’t comment on the International players and the G league players here’s the top 10.
Smith
Banchero
Murray
Ivey
Griffin
Duren
Holmgren – He needs a lot of development and what worries me he was a non factor against Gonzaga’s toughest matchups. I don’t like his hands and I wonder if he will ever have the physicality to be effective In the NBA. I like Pokusevski better than him and he’s struggling although we’ve seen flashes from him.
Mathurin
Davis
Washington
I have not seen a lot of Griffin but was not at all impressed with him. I have been in the Keegan Murray camp, but fear we will end up 6 and he will go 5 or end up 5 and he will go 4 or we will get the Number 1 pick and draftGriffin instead of Smith or Banchero
Griffin can disappear at times, but I think with NBA spacing, his 3pt shot will transfer well (he shoots over 44% from 3pt). He comes with an NBA ready body, 6-6 & 222lbs, can defend multiple positions, and still has a chance to develop his handles, drive and shot creation abilities. There is a lot to like but at the moment the only sure-fire elite skill you can count on is his 3pt shooting (he’s also a very good slasher).
I prefer Murray too, but I am afraid he’s gone at 3-5.
I think Jones needs to be retained, he’s too good to be a 3rd-string C and his size is useful against bigger C’s. I am sure we can find a simple trade to move Len during the draft. I would look to package our 2nd 2nd-round pick with Len to move up a few slots if there is team that could use a backup C upgrade.
We don’t need more than 3 Centers and I think it should be Sabonis/Jones/Queta. Holmes should be able to be moved for an actual asset, maybe in a S&T for Cody Martin (given the circumstances, hopefully the accusations against Holmes are bogus…otherwise he should be cut. Either way, I hope we find out soon).
Wasn’t we said the same thing last year about retaining Holmes ?
We signed him for 4 years, and looked to trade him away after he signed the extension.
Can you guarantee that we would not be doing the exact same thing once we retained/re-sign D. Jones to a long term deal….
I mean, Centre is pretty easy to replace…..and we still need to develop Queta.
Once you signed D. Jones, there is probably no minutes for Queta…..
p.s. I like D. Jones, but only vet. min should be given to him regarding our circumstance.
Holmes situation was quite a bit different, he was expected to come back as the starting C and his contract reflects that (even if it was considered at the time as good value for Holmes). I don’t think D. Jones will require the same level of commitment and I’d be very happy if he’d take something like $24M/3yrs (9/8/7) to keep him (he made $1.977M this year).
The team makeup was also different at the time, we only had one returning center in D. Jones. With the changes to the roster, Holmes and Len should be moved out to either acquire assets or move up in the later rounds of the draft.
With Sabonis getting 36 mins, there isn’t a ton of minutes left for Queta after Jones gets his, but consider this, there are a potential of 3936 minutes of playtime available if any one center were on the floor during the season (48mins x 82games).
2021 Mins Played:
Holmes (1,074), Jones (895), Len (620), Domas (504), TT (455), Queta (71)
2021 Total: 3,619 Total Mins with a Center on the floor.
You could easily give everyone minutes, but it obviously depends on the number of Centers on the roster in front of him.
2022 Est. Total: 3600 Total Mins
A couple of possibilities with either four or three centers, I am assuming Holmes ($10.384M in 2022-23) and/or Len ($3.918M in 2022-23) get moved this off season:
2022 Est.: Domas (2,000), Holmes (800), Jones (600) Queta (200)
2022 Est.: Domas (2,000), Jones (900), Len (500) Queta (200)
2022 Est.: Domas (2,100), Jones (1,200), Queta (300)
Without looking it up, I’d wager there isn’t a single team in the NBA that pays the backup to their star center anywhere near 24M/3 years. What do the backup up of Gobert, Embiid, Towns, Jokic, Vuc, etc, make? I’m guessing its a bunch of vet minimum dudes on one year deals.
I’d wager that would go for any position on the court to the backup of any start player getting 30+ minutes a night. You just don’t pay the backups to your star players that kind of money.
Currently Holmes is the most expensive backup center in the league by a country mile. You HAVE to move him for roster balance, but then you don’t go out make Jones the newest highest priced backup center in the league.
Agreed. At best Jones would get Len money, and probably less than that.
Was going to say the same thing.’
If Damian Jones could get a 3 year 10M deal this off-season, he should consider himself fortunate.
That’s all true but where was everybody when the Holmes contract talk was occurring last year. We overpaid.
When you say Jones needs to be retained that’s an incomplete statement. Retained for how much and how long. I was of the opinion last year the maximum we should have offered Holmes was 3 years 30 million with a third year team option. Had we offered him that, one of two things would have occurred. He walked and we’d have that cap space or he signed it and next year he’d be a virtual expiring contract. Both better outcomes than we have now. Now we have ANOTHER contract where AGAIN we’d like to dump it but it’s probably under water.
Biggest contract issue is the max contract for Fox ! It was a mistake at the time ( he was a RFA ) could not lose him . Simply match best offer or give him a deal relative to his true value . More like 5 years 110 million and a lot of things change for the better .
Brenden did a good job on breaking down how it’s gonna be difficult to keep him.
1) The Kings already have 3 centers under guaranteed contracts next year in Sabonis, Holmes, and Len (4 if you want to count Queta). McNair would be foolish to re-sign Jones in July if Holmes and Len are still on the team. He’d need to move them prior to free agency to prevent that redundancy.
2) Jones is playing better and will want to get paid better. How much are the Kings willing to pay a backup center? Remember, they started the season with Holmes as their starter and paid Len, Jones and Queta peanuts to be his backups. Jones won’t come that cheap and the Kings don’t have a ton of cap space.
3)IMO, the priority for McNair should not be signing backup centers with both limited roster space and cap space. He currently has glaring holes at the 4 and on the wings. If he is to re-sign DDV, that leaves even less money for someone like Jones, whom the Kings do not control the rights to.
If by some miracle McNair is able to move Holmes and Len without taking back too much guaranteed money prior to free agency, and Jones is willing to return as a backup who gets around 15 minutes a night, and he is willing to come cheap, and Monte is able to fill other positions of need first, then sure…re-sign the guy. The chances of all these things happening are near zero, IMO.
Here are some hypothetical trade ideas. Just want to get comments and get some other trade ideas. #1- Trade Fox, Lyles, Metu and our 2022 first round draft pick for Gary Trent Jr. and O G Anunoby. Raptors could use Fox as point and Van Fleet as SG. Scottie Barnes is their young forward to take Anunoby’s spot. Lyles and Metu would be good backups plus Raptors have a first rounder at at least 7 or 8 plus their own pick. Money works. #2- Trade Harrison Barnes, Justin Holiday and our 2023 first round pick for John Collins. Barnes can start at forward and Holiday can still play defense as a backup plus Hawks would have 2 first rounders next year. Collins is only 24 and has yet to reach his potential. #3- Trade Holmes to the Hornets for P J Washington and James Bouknight. Harrell will be a free agent and at over 9 mil. a year would hard to maintain. Holmes would be their center they have been looking for and we would get a good backup forward and Bouknight could be our backup starter. Definitely keep Divinsenzo. If we have faith in Queta then I wouldn’t give Jones, Lamb, or Jackson contracts. If not we still have Len. The starters would be Mitchell, Trent Jr., Anunoby, Collins and Sabonis. Gives us shooters, defense and playmakers. Backups would be Bouknight, Divinsenso, Davis, Washington, Queta/Len. Almost all of these players are 24 years old or younger but most have a lot of experience. Please comment.
Are you anti paragraphs?
Your comment is a jumbled mess.
Thanks for the constructive criticism. I know where I’m at. Your nowhere to be found.
Most people have this problem, Jack. Making really long comments into a wall of words makes it harder for everyone to read. Some push on and read it anyway (me), but most do not.
Now that is what I call constructive criticism.I will try harder next time.
Jack – Kingsguru knows of what he speaks. Somewhere around 2008 at another site and in a different iteration I would print out Mr. Guru’s 3 page comments which were entirely free of paragraphs and sometimes punctuation. I would have to read them with a straight edge ruler in order to make sense of them. Good times.
Excellent response to the so called Napear…..he’s still a dick
I had to add paragraphs so I could start reading those after awhile. LOL
I still thought you must have been some kind of savant. I didn’t know all that much about basketball, just that I loved to watch it and that it was my favorite sport followed closely by the Giants
Nah, not I. Just a mouthy twat banging away on a keyboard.
Kings don’t need to have cap space Adam. They have EBR’s (Early Bird rights) and that’s going to be all the money they need to resign Jones (and then some). The issue with Jones won’t be the ability to resign him but what he costs the Kings in actual dollars.
So with his EBA the Kings can offer him at most 175% of his current salary or something like the league average salary, right. The greater of the two, I believe. Last I checked the average salary in the NBA is around $12M, which is why Holmes got that last summer.
Also, doesn’t that EBA eat into the available cap space come July 1st? I’d assume the Kings want want to use that space elsewhere first, then go over the cap and re-sign guys like Jones and DDV. It would come down to timing.
Still, like you said, it’s what he will actually cost, and I wouldn’t want to give him anymore than the vet’s minimum, and that only be after Holmes and Len are removed from the equation.
Yep, that’s how EBR’s work. The league average salary was around 10.3 million though last season. That likely jumps to 10.5 million this year with the cap increase. We’ll see. I’m too lazy to calculate that atm.
No because the Kings don’t have cap space this summer to begin with, and what cap space would be eaten into by the cap hold of Donte DiVicenzo (14 million) alone, and your 1st round pick by just those 2 alone. So even if you had a projected 20 million under the cap, unless you don’t want to resign DDV, or your rookie, you’re not going to be under the cap.
This is where, sigh, cap holds come into play. (I hate talking about cap holds with you people.) Cap space is determined by the following:
Now, the good news is the roster charge won’t apply because the Kings have 12. The bad news is existing salary wise, the Kings are at about 106.5 milion in existing salary for 9 guys (Fox, Sabonis, Barnes, Holmes, Holiday, Mitchell, Harkless, Davis, and Len). Then you have cap holds for Jackson (UFA), Lamb (UFA), DiVicenzo (RFA), and you have to guarantee Metu’s salary by 6/29/22.
That does not include your 1st round pick or either of your 2 2nd round picks. All of whom have cap holds as well.
The projected cap total went up recently to 122 million, but that’s really meaningless for the Kings. What’s important is the tax line also goes up (because BRI went up and everything is based off BRI) and the Kings have at least 40 million in space between the tax line and their current committed salary.
What they will have is full Bird rights on DiVicenzo, EBR’s on Jones, Lamb, Jackson doesn’t really matter much long term because they won’t be back, you have team options on Metu and Lyles that could cut into that as well. And again that’s before you factor in 3 rookies potentially 2 of them 2nd rounders.
Let’s…..stop pretending the Kings have cap space this summer. Unless they wish to renounce all exceptions and cap holds, which they won’t want to do, there’s no point in hoping that cap space does anything for you.
Unless you’re S&T’ing DiVicenzo in the first place, and that’s a whole other ball of wax. I’m not going there.
.
Yup.
Would you resign Jones at 3 years 10M? I would at the very least consider it.
If I can move Holmes & Len.
For sure, there are a lot of moving parts in that equation. And I, for one, wouldn’t mind the Kings resigning Jones and picking up the team option on Metu. But I want to see what happens with Holmes, Len and Queta.
We could make arguments for a lot of guys to stay and go for a variety of reasons. Pretty much everyone except Sabonis and Fox.
What do you think is the likelihood of trading the following players:
Holmes ($11.250MM)
Holiday ($6.292MM)
Harkless ($4.565MM)
Len ($3.919MM)
If we are currently projected at -$21,462MM in practical cap space, the four combined players account for $26.026MM in salary. If those 4 are off the roster, doesn’t that create a dollar-for-dollar exchange resulting $4.564MM in available cap space?
If so, we could offer someone like C. Boucher from TOR an 3yr offer starting with $9MM 2022 and use the MLE ($4.6MM remaining) too offset that to less than the remaining $4.564MM in cap space for 2022-2023. Then we I believe we could re-sign DDV (if we can keep his price reasonable) and pickup Lyle’s option. We still have our 1st Round and two 2nd Round picks as well.
I am trying to determine if I need to give up on my hopes of having Boucher join the team as a free agent (I think he’s an excellent fit next Sabonis…TOR is better on both ends of the floor when he is on the court).
Kings scrubs excel during garbage time.
Next.
Divincenzo is a great acquisition. I don’t think it’s a stretch to think he’ll be either an above average starter or an elite sixth man. Chances of being resigned: 90%. Lyles and Metu will be nice to have back on the team next year. Lyles has turned out to be more than we expected. Nice find from the bargain bin. Jones: tough decision. Depends on the price point and other roster moves.
however, I don’t follow the logic in the article where Mitchell has to learn how to play next to Fox and not vice versa because one guy makes more money than the other. Mitchell I think would prefer to play alongside another wing/guard initiator and alternate roles on ball and off ball. Sometimes it looks like he wants to play off ball but no one else on the floor wants to swap roles for a few plays. I expect his shooting percentages to increase if he is sharing pg duties. Ironically I also think Fox would be a better overall player if he shares pg duties, playing off the ball at times. Jerry Reynolds suggested that on your podcast in the middle of last season before Mitchell was on the roster, when discussing his low shooting percentages. Everything we’ve seen since then supports that opinion and I think additionally, it would enable him to put more consistent energy on the defensive end.
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