Re-signing Harrison Barnes is a safe route with flexibility

Harison Barnes is the second-longest tenured member of the Sacramento Kings. He’s been in the organization long enough to know that the Keegan Murray chants in Golden 1 Center originated with Yogi Ferrell. After seemingly endless trade rumors in the past few trade deadlines and offseasons, he has signed a three-year, $54-million deal to remain in Sacramento.

“This is a great city and I think to be able to come at a point with this team where we’re trying to build something and it’s not just a lot of instability, a lot of ups-and-downs. I think to get it to where we are now, where it’s the complete opposite. There is stability,” Barnes said at his exit interviews. “It’s a lot of fun, a lot of winning, a great atmosphere, super rewarding for the fans. It’s great and I think there’s a lot of good basketball left to be played, collectively.”

During that same interview, Barnes said “the focus is on building for next year until I hear otherwise”. The organization reciprocated its appreciation for Barnes by locking up the veteran less than 24 hours prior to the start of free agency.

Barnes was crucial to Sacramento’s success last season in a multitude of ways on and off the court. His veteran leadership was often referenced and praised by his teammates. De’Aaron Fox has talked about how Barnes was an example of what hard work and consistency looked like in the NBA. Keegan Murray and Barnes have a good relationship playing similar positions and sharing the home state of Iowa.

Barnes has also been a National Basketball Player Association representative since the 2014-15 season. Outside of Matthew Dellavedova, Barnes was the only player on Sacramento’s roster last season who had won a championship. He was one of 10 players to play all 82 games of the season. That was while averaging 32.5 minutes a night.

Barnes’s counting stats were well-rounded and exceptional, as usual. In the 2022-23 season, he averaged 15 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 37.4 percent from three on 4.3 attempts per game.

Part of Barnes’s appeal is his positional versatility. He can play at either the three or the four spots and allows you to be flexible with who surrounds him. He played alongside Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray, and he played alongside Malik Monk and Terence Davis. Of Sacramento’s nine most-played lineups in 2022-23, eight of them featured Barnes.

Sacramento logged twice as many minutes with Barnes on the floor than they did with him resting and was substantially better with him out there. With Barnes on the floor, the Kings had a 120 offensive rating and 115.2 defensive rating, totaling to a positive 4.8 net rating.

When Barnes was resting (or riding the stationary bike in the tunnel), those numbers suffered. The offensive rating was 112.8 with a matching defensive rating and neutral net rating. Sacramento was better when Harrison Barnes played.

He is someone who can finish plays at the rim or from beyond the arc and always plays within himself. 71 percent of his made field goals this past season were assisted, per Cleaning the Glass, which makes him an ideal complimentary piece playing off Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox.

The spacing that was provided by Barnes, Huerter, Monk, and Murray was crucial to the success of their two All-Stars who thrive on the interior. He’s not a defensive stopper, but there were times last year when Harrison Barnes was assigned to be the primary defender on LeBron James.

Where the Barnes conversation complicated was in their postseason series against Golden State. He back-rimmed a three-pointer to beat the buzzer in game four that would have given the Kings a comfortable 3-1 lead headed back to Golden 1 Center. The shot didn’t go down, but it was on-target and a look you live with.

The postseason concerns with Barnes don’t lie in that shot, but the way his minutes were limited by Coach Brown in games six and seven are concerning. 14 minutes in game six which Coach Brown said was “more a feel than anything else” on his part and that other guys were playing well. Barnes saw just 15 minutes of floor time in game seven.

Sacramento had a -12.2 net rating with Barnes on the floor compared to a +14.4 net rating with him off in the postseason. He was undeniably poor at the most important time and struggled to make a consistent impact. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what Barnes’s shortcomings were in that series, but it’s a haunting end that certainly factors into these decisions.

Despite his underwhelming showing against the Warriors, the Kings took that series to seven games and his impact could have varied in another matchup. Even with postseason success being the ultimate goal, Barnes’s regular season production, versatility, and consistency should not be overlooked for a team that won 48 games last season.

What he brings is not easy to replace. General manager Monte McNair and his front office traded away pick 24 along with Richaun Holmes on draft night to create up to roughly $35-million in cap space and many people assumed that meant a subsequent large offer sheet to someone like Kyle Kuzma or Draymond Green.

Clearly, those players were not viewed as ideal long-term fits at their respective expected salaries and losing Barnes with no suitable replacement would be the worst-case scenario. McNair has talked about being “aggressive, yet disciplined” and this feels like a decision based on discipline.

They could have thrown upwards of $20-million annually at someone in free agency because they felt the need to take another substantial jump immediately. Of course, they would like to take that jump, but options are limited when it comes to free agency and trades always remain a viable route with surprising opportunities.

Barnes’s contractual evaluation of $18-million yearly is on-par for a starting caliber wing/forward in the market and the offseason is far from complete.

Players that signed similar deals in recent years:

Harrison Barnes: 3yrs/$54M ($18M/yr)
Spencer Dinwiddie: 3yrs/$54M ($18M/yr)
Bogdan Bogdanovic: 4yrs/$68M ($17M/yr)
Norman Powell: 5yrs/$90M ($18M/yr)
Kevin Huerter: 4yrs/$65M ($16M/yr)

~$18M/yr is typical for a solid starter.

— Brenden Nunes (@BrendenNunesNBA) June 30, 2023

For instance, Sacramento can still create somewhere around $18-million in cap space post-Barnes deal. With many other teams maximum offer being the $12-million mid-level exception, the Kings can submit superior offers to players like Bruce Brown, Kelly Oubre Jr, Caris LeVert, Dillon Brooks, or Christian Wood.

They also could split that money into two smaller deals. Say they signed Mason Plumlee and Torrey Craig, retained Trey Lyles, and signed Sasha Vezenkov into their room exception. That’s one example of one of the many routes they could pursue from here.

Sacramento still has flexibility this offseason after the Harrison Barnes extension.

Options include:

1. Using $18M in room and also bring back Trey Lyles;

2. A combination of renegotiating Domantas Sabonis contract, bringing back Lyles, use remaining room and also the $7.7M…

— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) June 30, 2023

Maybe the front office elects to raise and extend Domantas Sabonis rather than risk him hitting the open market a year from now. Maybe they use the cap space to take on an uneven amount of salary in a trade? The Kings still have options.

They’ve filled the biggest hole on their roster with a player that they know works in their system, and has valuable chemistry with his teammates while maintaining some flexibility to find additional complimentary pieces.

Think about how long Monte McNair and this front office in Sacramento had Buddy Hield before striking a deal. There have been years of Harrison Barnes being in trade rumors because it was thought unlikely he’d be willing to return to Sacramento.

Now, Barnes is set to be back playing in royal purple moving forward. This is the front office remaining “aggressive, but disciplined” with a current emphasis on the latter.