Per a report from ESPN’s Shams Charania, the NBA has all but finalized it’s new anti-tanking lottery reform that it will be submitting for a final vote on May 28th. Should it pass, the new rules would go into effect for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 draft, after which the reform will either be continued or re-evaluated and changed. While there might be some slight differences in the final proposal, here are the main key points that have seemingly been agreed to in the discussions:
- 16 teams will participate in the lottery with picks being drawn for each slot. Depending on draft position, each team will have between 1 and 3 lottery balls.
- The worst three teams in the NBA will only receive two lottery balls, but would have a floor of the 12th pick, whereas every other team could fall as far as the 16th pick.
- The bottom four through 10 teams will receive three lottery balls each. This is the new sweet spot for the highest odds.
- The 9 and 10 Play-In Seeds will each receive two lottery balls each.
- The losers of the 7-8 Play-In games will receive one lottery ball each.
- No team can win the top pick in consecutive years.
- No team can win three consecutive top-five picks.
- Teams will not be allowed to protect picks in the 12-15 slots going forward.
In addition to those main points, the NBA also would add provisions to be able to discipline teams by reducing team’s lottery odds and/or modifying draft positions in an attempt to regulate tanking. As an example, both Utah and Indiana, which received monetary fines this season for tanking, might have instead seen their odds reduced, which they likely would have seen as a far harsher punishment.
The NBA’s new proposal is definitely a big change for the league as there will no longer be much of an incentive to be very bad. In fact, the worst teams might be trying their hardest to win each game as the season progresses in order to avoid a reduction in odds. However we might also see teams tank a bit further up in the standings instead to get to that sweet spot of the 4-10 range instead of a Play-In game that reduces their odds. While only one fewer lottery ball doesn’t seem like a huge deal, we’ve seen time and time again that some teams will do everything they can for even a miniscule advantage.
Still, this is a sweeping change that will likely have lasting ramifications on the league. I do think something needed to be done, but only time will tell if this proposal causes the needed change. We’re probably going to see some even wilder results in the lottery going forward, as the new system makes it so even the teams with one lottery ball have a better chance at the #1 pick than the current 10th-14th seeds do, and since all 16 spots are up for grabs, everyone has a shot at moving up no matter what. But it also means that for some truly bad teams, there could be some pretty disastrous results. For example, my first try using the simulator someone built saw the Kings fall from 5th to 14th, with Milwaukee jumping from 10th to 1st and Phoenix jumping to 2nd. There’s also some ramifications for picks that have already been sent out that now might look better since they’ll have greater odds of moving up.
These new rules are probably going to take a while to get used to, and it’s going to be interesting to see how teams adjust going forward. We probably won’t see the truly egregious instances of tanking anymore, and if so, that’s probably for the best. Teams should not be incentivized to lose, although I do understand why teams did that, as landing a top young and cheap prospect is often the best way to change a team’s fortunes. Now even more teams have a chance at that, and we could see some fringe playoff teams get good young stars too.
For now, the NBA is set to operate it’s old lottery rules one last time on May 10th. The Kings currently are tied with the Utah Jazz for the 4th best odds and have a 45.2% chance at a top-four pick.
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