Per a report from ESPN’s Shams Charania, the NBA has all but finalized it’s new anti-tanking lottery reform that it will be submitting for a final vote on May 28th. Should it pass, the new rules would go into effect for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 draft, after which the reform will either be continued or re-evaluated and changed. While there might be some slight differences in the final proposal, here are the main key points that have seemingly been agreed to in the discussions:
- 16 teams will participate in the lottery with picks being drawn for each slot. Depending on draft position, each team will have between 1 and 3 lottery balls.
- The worst three teams in the NBA will only receive two lottery balls, but would have a floor of the 12th pick, whereas every other team could fall as far as the 16th pick.
- The bottom four through 10 teams will receive three lottery balls each. This is the new sweet spot for the highest odds.
- The 9 and 10 Play-In Seeds will each receive two lottery balls each.
- The losers of the 7-8 Play-In games will receive one lottery ball each.
- No team can win the top pick in consecutive years.
- No team can win three consecutive top-five picks.
- Teams will not be allowed to protect picks in the 12-15 slots going forward.
In addition to those main points, the NBA also would add provisions to be able to discipline teams by reducing team’s lottery odds and/or modifying draft positions in an attempt to regulate tanking. As an example, both Utah and Indiana, which received monetary fines this season for tanking, might have instead seen their odds reduced, which they likely would have seen as a far harsher punishment.
The NBA’s new proposal is definitely a big change for the league as there will no longer be much of an incentive to be very bad. In fact, the worst teams might be trying their hardest to win each game as the season progresses in order to avoid a reduction in odds. However we might also see teams tank a bit further up in the standings instead to get to that sweet spot of the 4-10 range instead of a Play-In game that reduces their odds. While only one fewer lottery ball doesn’t seem like a huge deal, we’ve seen time and time again that some teams will do everything they can for even a miniscule advantage.
Still, this is a sweeping change that will likely have lasting ramifications on the league. I do think something needed to be done, but only time will tell if this proposal causes the needed change. We’re probably going to see some even wilder results in the lottery going forward, as the new system makes it so even the teams with one lottery ball have a better chance at the #1 pick than the current 10th-14th seeds do, and since all 16 spots are up for grabs, everyone has a shot at moving up no matter what. But it also means that for some truly bad teams, there could be some pretty disastrous results. For example, my first try using the simulator someone built saw the Kings fall from 5th to 14th, with Milwaukee jumping from 10th to 1st and Phoenix jumping to 2nd. There’s also some ramifications for picks that have already been sent out that now might look better since they’ll have greater odds of moving up.
These new rules are probably going to take a while to get used to, and it’s going to be interesting to see how teams adjust going forward. We probably won’t see the truly egregious instances of tanking anymore, and if so, that’s probably for the best. Teams should not be incentivized to lose, although I do understand why teams did that, as landing a top young and cheap prospect is often the best way to change a team’s fortunes. Now even more teams have a chance at that, and we could see some fringe playoff teams get good young stars too.
For now, the NBA is set to operate it’s old lottery rules one last time on May 10th. The Kings currently are tied with the Utah Jazz for the 4th best odds and have a 45.2% chance at a top-four pick.
No system is perfect. Teams will always find a way to “beat the odds” or formulate a strategy to their advantage.
Incredibly stupid system that will hurt parity. As I mentioned in the other thread, it makes no sense to punish teams for injuries or star players who leave via free agency or demand a trade. Indy, for example, lost two starters from last season. Should they be punished for being the second worst team in the league?
The NBA had investigations into tanking this season by getting a third party to review sitting healthy players, and from all they they fined just 2 teams.
So the question is, is there really a tanking problem or is the real problem the in-bed relationship the NBA now has with online betting sponsors. Teams resting their stars or sitting them in the 4th quarter to play their youth in the final 25% of the season is something that has ALWAYS happened. It’s only a issue now because those sponsors are having their bottom line affected.
From a “tanking” standpoint there was nothing different from this season, to Utah trading away Mitchell and Gobert season, to Brooklyn blowing up their big 3 (twice) seasons, to “The Process” seasons, to the Spurs landing Tim Duncan season. Injuries and resets are part of the game.
The only thing that is different now is the NBA’s revenue from sports betting. Shame on Adam Silver.
But they weren’t the 2nd worst team in the league or close to it. They tanked…hard. And smartly based on current rules. Siakim sat out almost exclusively at end of season. Nemhard sat out almost every game Pacers played another tanking team.
You ask if they should be punished…Should they be rewarded for that? Kings, Wizards, Nets, Pacers, Grizz, they all tanked. Just some better than others.
I don’t think this is perfect, nothing probably is. But I think it’s a big improvement. Trying to weasel your way from 11th (35 Wins?) to 4th-5th now doesn’t even double your odds. Before it gave you 5-6 times the odds. That’s worth tanking for. Not sure the previous is.
Might a team try to mini tank at end of season out of the 11th slot to the 10th. Mayyybe. But that is better than 6-8 teams every year tanking their asses off. Overall I like it.
But it will suck when the 3rd slotted Kings get the 11th pick next year ; )
Then why didn’t the NBA fine them for Siakam sitting games out near the end of the season? The league hired people to review injury reports for the sole purpose to deter tanking with false injuries and only made two fines this year. $500K to Utah and $100K to Indy, and those were both in February.
If was such a blatant tanking year (it wasn’t different then any other year, IMO), why didn’t the NBA come down on those teams? Doesn’t pass the sniff test to me.
So only two teams tanked then? The Kings didnt tank? All the games missed and Domas and Lavine shut down for year amongst others were legit?
We all know if the Kings had been hunting an 8 seed the last 20
games those dudes woulda played. True for multiple other teams. Wiz with AD and Trae etc. That’s tanking…I don’t care if it’s fined or not.
Has it existed before? Of course. Doesnt mean this doesn’t at least work towards somewhat fixing it.
I have always been avid supporter of Kings to tank. Most seasons out of the last 20. The last 3-4 years when they were mildly competitive I would say I watched 80% of minutes played. Went to 4-5 games a year. This year I watched maybe 15%. Went to 1. Just checked for a loss at end of the night. As a non casual fan, that’s a massive problem for NBA.
I would like to be able to cheer for my team without feeling like them winning is putting them at a competitive disadvantage. This mostly does that.
Dudes being hurt isn’t tanking. All l know is the league put in new protocols to review teams injury reports to verify if teams are sitting their stars. They literally installed a penalty system if teams are caught tanking. Two teams end up being fined once each.
Silver says there is rampant tanking that needs fixing and is proposing radical changes to the draft because of it, yet when tangible evidence of tanking should exist (fines) there aren’t any. That doesn’t seem odd to you? Either the fines are fugazi or the tanking narrative is fiction.
Reminds me of folks show say millions voted illegally so we have to change the voting laws, yet they have no real proof of illegality.
I mean if you really believe Sabonis, Keegan, Lavine, AD, Trae, Jaren Jackson, Maurkanen, Siakim, Kyshawn George (off the top of my head) were all so injured they couldn’t play any or the majority of the last 1/3 of the season…then there is nothing I can say to convince you that this is tanking.
But the league reviews all those injuries with independent physicians! Then explain why fines weren’t handed down.
Come on you’re being ridiculous. All those guys were not injured enough to preclude them from playing. It was all part of the tank process. It’s so obvious it’s beyond discussion. The only question is what do you do about it.
Here’s how I see it. Were these dudes hurt? Yes. Could they play, maybe. Should they play? That’s debatable.
Players play through nagging injuries all the time, especially when the games matter, see: Fox and Sabonis during the playoff year, but that’s because they are playing for something. As you get deeper into the playoffs, players play when they probably shouldn’t, see: Hali in last season’s Finals.
Now when it comes to the teams that are accused of tanking, I believe the players did have a verifiable medical issues, which explains why they weren’t fined. So it comes back to “should” or “could” they play when in reality they have nothing to play for. Any competent front office could say they are not going to play a player they have millions invested in because they might injure themselves further. See: Bucks and Giannis situation. Is that tanking, being cautious, or some grey area in between? I’m also not one to say the injuries are insignificant.
True story, I eye rolled at the time when Peja couldn’t play for the Kings due to his foot issue with Plantar Fasciitis. I snickered at the Good Feet commercials. I thought he was wussing out. That all changed when I got Plantar Fasciitis and only then did I understand.
How about when we flip things around. When a really good team comes into Sac and “rests” their players against the Kings G-league squad, is that a problem? Their players weren’t injured, why aren’t those teams fined? Embiid doesn’t play in back to backs. He’s obviously healthy enough to play one night, but not the next? So is sitting players on bad teams the only thing that is unacceptable? Come on now…
Now when looking at the Kings, did they tank?. Sabonis has a torn meniscus, LaVine had surgery on a torn tendon, Hunter had surgery on a detached retinal, Keegan was out for nearly 70% of the season. Did the Kings tank, or is just the other teams we are talking with fake injuries we really haven’t followed?
If in the same breath you can say the Kings were legit injured, but the other teams were tanking, without proof, with fake injuries, and oh…it’s ok for good teams to rest their stars, then you’ve already lost the argument that tanking is a problem.
Yeah the goal should be parity, only have to look at the nfl for a shining example of that. NBA leadership is full of idiots that think they are the smartest in the room
The NBA sold its soul for money. Plain and simple.
This isn’t the Association many of us once knew. It’s sad.
Agree it’s another asinine attempt to solve the problem. I do disagree with you about tanking. It’s a problem and a big one. You just can’t have in any professional sport, teams purposely losing. My solution is to exclude the top eight teams, from the lottery and everyone else gets one ball. Simple, not perfect, but effective. It stops tanking totally.
The second problem is the season is too long. It won’t happen but it should be reduced to 70 games. That would somewhat increase the significance of a regular season game, allow for back to back games to be eliminated and hopefully reduce players taking games off. Lastly, I would get rid of the playin round and just go to 16 playoff teams.
This is a good chart. The league is proposing rewarding the middling teams that no one likes to watch. At least the worst teams play a bunch of youth and guys playing their guts out to make it in the league. No one wants to watch a team strive for 35 wins…as evidenced by the majority of the Kings seasons in Sacramento.
Another cool fact, since the lottery began in 1985, the teams with the worst record have one the lottery just 8 times in 40 years. The league only changed the lottery odds in 2019 because of the anomaly of the worst teams winning it 4 times in a row between 2015-2018
Tanking is a myth.
Give the 14 the same odds, then simulate the draft x number of times. Lowest average score of draft positions drafts first, highest drafts last, etc.
Establish the TRB (Tanking Review Board) to investigate any team trying to tank their way in to the 14. (would this even happen?) If tanking review comes back positive, the TRB can impose punitive measures such as the team losing the pick outright, team moving to the end of the 1st round, etc.
Watch for one of the play-in teams to win the lottery the first year.
thanks for sharing the chart. it’s a step in the right direction. Even better if the three worst teams have 0% of getting a top 3 pick.
It’s pretty hilarious that with all the scandals this year tanking is the one thing that the NBA is pretending to be flabbergasted about and needs to take action on immediately.
Yup. Trying to shift focus from the real issues.
They literally have a gambling scandal they’re trying to sweep under the rug.
I’m not sure how ratings are for the playoffs thus far, but it seems like a boring and uninteresting start.
Ran the simulator once: Kings dropped to 15th.
A likely preview of the 2027 lottery.
So complicated.
All non-playoff teams get one ball and are all picked first. Once complete, all playoff teams outside of the Finals get one ball and are picked. Lastly, the two teams who reached the finals are picked.
I like it. Incredibly simple and effective. It still helps create parity and really provides no incentive for the non-playoff teams to sit players. The only downside is youth and end of the bench guys may not get the opportunity to play in garbage games at the end of the season.
It hurts parity. The Hornets have as good a chance at Dybantsa as the Wizards. And ten other similar examples.
Like this idea much better than Silver version .
Like so many of my ideas, it came to me on a long bike ride.
Love it, but I would keep 3 other items
No team can win the top pick in consecutive years. (Getting a pick from a trade does not count)
No team can win three consecutive top-five picks. (Getting a pick from a trade does not count)
The only protections you can put on a pick are 1-16 and 17-32 (I am taking expansion into account). No more protecting for top 3, 5,10
Thought just came to me that future draft picks may have a lot more value under this proposed system. With more slots with the potential to move up I’d have to think the war chests of teams like OKC and Utah will increase in value. I wonder if this will sway votes for the new system.
The part I like the most about this is there are no longer guaranteed spots based on draft position. Rather, teams can fall to the end of the lottery. Flattened odds also promotes competition.
Also, in all honesty…this system actually really helps the Kings. We all saw what happened this season – the Kings had the worst record and Doug still rode DeRozan and Westbrook hard to move us to the 5th lottery slot. The Kings have always been a perpetual 4th through 10th lottery team, anyways.
Flattened odds does not increase/promote competition, we just watched what it did, increased the number of teams trying to lose.
But there was always a floor that you could fall to. 3rd you could only drop to 7 etc. That was a huge incentive.
Now the odds are even flatter and you could drop all the way to 16 or whatever. Thats much harsher than before. It’s not apples to apples.
If you don’t mind the tanking or you liked it the way it was then thats a different conversation. But I don’t see how someone can look at this and not think teams will be trying to win more games next year than they did this year. Or any recent year.
The only incentive to win is for the bottom 3 teams facing a punishment for losing too much, ALL the other teams that now qualify for the lottery are incentivized to lose to get into the 4-10 range especially if they are now fringe-play-in teams (which there was previously no incentive to tank much as it wasn’t likely to drastically improve their draft positioning).
Now, teams that had almost no chance at winning the lottery have just as good a chance as a bottom-of-the-conference team.
There are parts to this plan that make obvious sense, like the consecutive-lottery winner and consecutive top-5 limitations, but the rest of this plan is annoyingly stupid and will do the exact opposite of what it is “supposed” to do.
TBH, I don’t buy any of this tanking BS as being sincere anyway…this was a performative reaction to the gambling app-overlords whose dicks Silver has stuffed down his throat. They have a harder time fleecing NBA fans and gambling addicts when they don’t have inside information, refs on the payroll, and/or extremely consistent lineups that they could properly set lines for.
What is the point of this? Teams will not be allowed to protect picks in the 12-15 slots going forward
Ha! This would totally describe the Kangz of you replace “avoid” with “achieve”.
I can’t wait for the Kings to finally finish in the bottom 3 next year and still end up with the 7th pick.
Run the simulator a couple of times, and you can see it will smash parity by giving .500 teams Dybantsa-ish players and terrible teams players like whoever is going 16th this year.
That is, without a doubt, a terrible thing.
Regarding “fixing” tanking, the very smart teams are figuring out how to game this system like they would figure out how to game any system. They’ll implement their analysis, and the other teams will copy it. Off the bat, I could see teams just trying to lose or win their way into 4th through 10th. It won’t be “win every game at all costs!” just win or lose hard, depending on what gets you to 4th through 10th.
But there will be some wrinkle none of us are seeing now that will become evident and be the way to maximize getting the best players, and that way will probably involve intentionally losing sometimes.
The only thing that is clear right now is that parity will be smashed further.
The NBA is just a goofy, unserious league at this point. From the IST to all this tanking and draft nonsense, Commish Silver is ruining the NBA.
Does the NFL have a tanking problem? Or a lottery? Nope.
Just do away with the draft lottery, the IST and the other nonsense and make the NBA entertaining and fun again.
This will punish bad teams more than it does tanking teams. And “competitive” games between terrible teams are no better than BS games between tanking teams. No one cares either way.
Fans of a good team aren’t more or less likely to tune in to them smashing a bad team vs a tanking team. Tanking makes zero difference to ticket sales, ratings or “league integrity.” If anything, it gives a better possibility of a bump to terribly run teams, giving them at least some chance to be good.
What’s going to happen is another top level team will end up with a superstar via pick swaps or an off year, and the worst run teams just wither and die, because they’re run badly and now they can’t get high enough picks to luck into the right player.
What’s interesting to me is how this affects the Kings. They have been all-in for the entire Vivek tenure in chasing 35 wins. But that number has been artificially propped up by other teams tanking. If every team is desperately trying to stay out of the bottom three spots, what happens to the Kings, who, along with the other major league team currently in Sacramento, are the worst run organizations in sports?
If the Kings don’t get lucky either in the lottery or with falling into the right player at a lower pick, and have to actually compete on Vivek’s merits as a GM, they’re going to have a REAL hard time consistently getting out of the bottom three. Vivek’s favorite player was Monta Ellis, a stat padder who didn’t play defense or make anyone better, and who stopped playing for the Warriors 14 years ago. More than a decade layer, Vivek acquired “Monta Ellis” for De’Aaron Fox, after trying twice. We’ve all seen that it was a disater.
The Kings also blew their chance at a generational superstar, and traded a star/possible superstar player away, who ended up being a key piece of an NBA finals team. This new plan makes it a lot less likely the Kings will even get another shot at that kind of player.
And1 – This also a fake scandal to distract from the Clippers subverting the CBA and Silver wanting to let it go, because reasons.
The Clippers scandal, which they will sweep under the rug to appease their richest owner, in addition to the betting scandal and a potential scandal brewing in PDX. If that cheap ass owner nickels and dimes the franchise while going through arena renovations paid for with tax dollars…look out. There is supposed to be a new 20 year lease between the Blazers and the Moda center with the recent approval of public funds, but their new owner has been wishy washy when asked if he would commit to the lease.
Yeah, I read a little bit about that new owner, and the subtext is that he wants to move the team.
I don’t see this lasting more than 5 years, to be honest. Players on the team with the third worst record being played for 45 minutes on the last meaningless game of the season to help their team get their replacement? The first time that an achillies snaps on game 82, there will be pushback from the NBPA. NBPA should be unhappy that this will limit minutes and opportunities for younger and developmental players.
The NBA moved away from a system like this because of the perception of rigged lotteries like the frozen Ewing envelope. This isn’t going to help that. Teams that are poorly run are going to miss out more often. This isn’t going to help that. The only upside as a Kings fan is knowing that we love grinding right in that 7th slot and so we’re really just having our cake and eating it too watching a team bump us down to 9 and saying “at least it’s only two spots, not 5!”
There are solutions that push competition. This isn’t one of them. Tie it to margin of victory, or an algorithm of projected possible starter minutes.
Trying to prevent tanking is a good concept but not really for Kings, as it’s their best shot at getting a superstar. I do support the anti-tanking efforts, not sure if they’ll work. It seems the rich will only get richer as far as the large market teams and their ability to succeed.
The Kings just plain suck on all levels and that’s their problem. The OKC model will probably cease to exist but the good franchises (even small market) will find a way.
I’m an NBA fan first and Kings fan second so this will probably be an improvement. I still think postseason basketball for the bottom 14 teams would’ve been the most fun. This is an Ok fix at best.
I’d complain about this being a small market team that isn’t a FA draw, if we didn’t have a moron owner who “is against tanking” ie putting his team at a competitive imbalance for the lottery anyways
since we have said moron owner, getting rid of the contemporary system only helps correct this imbalance
Wouldn’t it be great to just get rid of the moron?
Should not try and fix a lottery. It should be worst gets first.
OT: I saw the future and Domas was wearing a Trailblazers jersey. It seems like a perfect fit for him. Shaedon Sharp’s new deal is about to kick in, and I know the Kings have an affinity for hyper-athletic players who struggle to shoot from the outside.
Shouldn’t this proposal really help OKC and the Nets who have a large number of future picks and pick swaps, so a more teams potentially are with a chance of winning the lottery makes some of those swaps from years past potentially more valuable?
Yup, which is why I could see teams like you mentioned, including Memphis, Utah, and even the Spurs saying yes to this 3 year experiment of a new lottery. Already traded future picks should jump in value while additional future picks may be harder to get for rebuilding teams.
Making draft pick slotting less valuable also increases the value of free agency. As poorly run team can count less on building through the draft, adding to their teams through free agency escalates in importance.
This gives additional power to the player agents who direct where their players end up in free agency.
We all know how much free agents look to come to Vivek’s Kings.
This also hurts Memphis, Milwaukee, Utah, Charlotte and Washington, teams that are either/and small market and poorly run.
The vast majority of teams or not on the top free agents lists, of the teams listed in the post above name a class free agent that has signed there ever?
Think building a team through free agency for an also ran team is a myth Its great if you are the Lakers
and those same teams will vote for a new system once their treasure trove of mid-tier draft picks has been depleted.
I’m just looking forward to be able to root for my team winning and getting better without stressing about losing ping pong balls.
I did some more thinking and came to the realization that it doesn’t matter where a team picks (for the most part), they just need to draft well.
The Kings have pretty much been in the lottery for the past 2 decades, with 2 winning seasons during that time. They have been awful at drafting (same with Charlotte, Wizards, Nets, etc). They have missed on so many picks.
So try whatever reform they want, the trams that draft well will find their way out of the lottery and back into the playoffs.
Yep. A good GM and scouting department are the foundation of a successful franchise.
Also, Nik doesn’t rock.
That’s Sauce Castillo to you!
You look at the Thunder and Spurs as successful drafting but look also at this year’s Boston Celtics who took many castoffs (two from the Kings in Jordan Walsh and Nemias Queta), Baylor Scheierman, Payton Pritchard – and that shows you what developing your players is all about. Throw Miami in there as well.
We see these teams with these huge staffs of 7 assistant coaches and 3-4 development coaches and those teams mentioned above are sterling examples of how to do it.
I can’t imagine that type of transformative synergy ever taking place here in Sacramento, especially with Ranadive. The positive for Sac on development might exist to some extent in Stockton – but looking at how they’ve treated the Stockton Kings, are their development/coaches staying there or moving on to greener pastures?
Speaking of the Wizards, what’s going on with Coulibaly? Might take a swing on him.
He is a bad shooter and doesn’t enough other stuff to cover that.
Bad might be an overstatement. He had surgery last preseason to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb. His FT percentage is 75%. As for other things, he’s a great defender, super long, rebounds well, positive A/T ratio. Only 21 years old and the Wizards have been a mess. Had some injuries and had to play backseat to a bunch of chuckers like Kuzma. Deni just blossomed after being traded from Wiz, which could imply an organization not developing talent. Wizards might not extend him. Speaks French. Adamsite liked him on draft day.
42% FG/31% 3p/75% FT are his shooting splits. Advanced shooting numbers aren’t very good either. Not saying he is a bad player, just that he doesn’t shoot well. For a nominal price, sure, go get him. Just don’t think he will move the needle in the right direction.
Also, they drafted Bub Carrington and Tre Johnson in subsequent drafts, both who play PG/SG, and went and traded for Trae. That doesn’t scream confidence in Bilal by the Wizards.
They also didn’t have confidence in Deni.
I guess I see Bilal as the next iteration of Frank Ntilikina and Killian Hayes (being French as an aside). Young guys that have some skills and play defense, but just can’t shoot. You can go compare the numbers, and they are fairly similar.
I’ll put this out there. Admittedly I dont watch a lot of college basketball. But I usually look at player profiles around this time and watch some video. Sometimes a player will stand out on highlights alone. This go-round, that player is Mikel Brown Jr. I predict he will be a solid starter and fringe star.
WTF TKH? There is a banner on this page, “Click Here to Continue.” When I clicked on it it sent me to a scammer that said my computer was locked up. Please check this, remove it, and be more careful who you sell space to.
I didn’t see that message.
It has now changed to a jewelry ad.
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