Over the last four years, De’Aaron Fox’s growth as a scorer has been nearly unprecedented. As a rookie in 2017, he ranked 143rd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 11.6 points per game. Last year, he skyrocketed all the way to 16th in the league, more than doubling his scoring average to 25.2 per game. And that increase hasn’t simply come as a result of starting games and playing additional minutes. His points per-36 minutes have seen a similar climb, from 15 to 19.8 to 23.8 to 25.8.
De’Aaron’s scoring prowess mostly finds its genesis in his ability to attack the rim and either score, draw a foul, or both. In 2020, he placed second among all point guards in frequency of shooting fouls drawn, earning free throws on 17.1% of his shooting attempts, including over 22% of the time when he attacked the paint. Unfortunately for Fox and the Kings, he was unable to consistently convert his shots from the charity stripe, a major area of concern heading into the 2021 campaign.
As one of the league leaders in free throw attempts, Fox must do a better job of converting at the line. Last year, he sunk just 71.9% of his attempts, ranking in the 18th percentile among point guards. Of the 20 players who averaged at least six free throw attempts per game in 2020, De’Aaron placed 16th. Those percentages have to come up if Fox wishes to join the truly elite scorers in the league. In fact, if he had sunk 85% of his attempts, league-average for a lead ball-handler last season, his scoring output would have jumped by about one point per game, pushing him to 13th in the league in scoring.
As much as converting a higher percentage of free throws would have helped Fox last season, his three-point shooting is truly the area in which his scoring game can evolve from pretty good to league-elite. Similar to his free throw shooting, De’Aaron’s percentage from beyond the arc was incredibly low for a point guard, ranking in just the 12th percentile. If Fox was able to work his way to merely average from deep, 36.4% to be exact, his scoring would increase again increase by about a point per game, and more importantly, the other areas of his offensive attack would open up as defenses adapted to his new and improved shooting. However, unlike free throw shooting, which is nothing more than repeated muscle memory, improving three-point accuracy often has just as much to do with shot selection as it does shooting form, and De’Aaron Fox is no exception to that rule.
Last season, Fox shot a discouraging 32% from deep, but that was mostly due to the fact that the vast majority of his attempts, 91% of them, came from his weakest spot on the floor, the top of the arc. Fox sank just 31.6% of his three-pointers from that spot, while he made 36.8% of his shots from the left corner and an astounding 41.7% of his attempts from the right-hand side of the court. It would behoove both the Kings and Fox to find ways to increase his attempts from either corner, as that would not only increase his overall effectiveness from beyond the arc, but the cumulative effect of regularly seeing the ball snap the nets would undoubtedly help Fox at the top of the key as well.
De’Aaron would also be better served if he decreased the frequency of his pull-up three-point attempts, which often come at the top of the key. Last year, he attempted 3.8 pull-ups per game, nearly doubling his frequency from 2019, in which he took two on average. Unfortunately, Fox was awful in that situation, converting 30% of his attempts, the worst mark of any player who attempted at least 3.5 per game. Conversely, De’Aaron was fantastic in catch-and-shoot situations, sinking 39.3% of his shots. While it’s absolutely true that a rim-oriented player such as Fox needs to occasionally take a pull-up jumper to keep opposing defenses honest, his radical increase in the toughest sort of three-pointer did him not a bit of good last season. Better shot selection and execution, from Fox, his teammates, and the coaching staff, would go quite far in helping De’Aaron to become a consistent threat from beyond the arc.
Anyone who has watched the Sacramento Kings over the last few years has recognized De’Aaron Fox’s potential as a top scorer in the league. Throughout his career, he’s improved his areas of strength tremendously, developing into one of the NBA’s most devastating rim attackers, but it’s now time for Fox to shift from strengthening strengths to shoring up weaknesses. If De’Aaron truly wants to join the league’s elite scorers, his consistency from the free throw line and accuracy and shot selection from beyond the arc must improve dramatically.
Can he ever be the leader of a team that wins more than 30 games is the question. Personally, I’d much rather see a team built on defense and ball movement, than Fox iso ball.
Agreed. I’m not sure the Kings really benefit from a high scoring/high usage Fox. Last season he topped 30% usage for the first time and put up peak John Wall and Derrick Rose type numbers when they hit similar numbers. They broke down soon after that.
I’m in the camp that has serious concerns about riding Fox that hard. He is a guy that relies heavily on his first step and athleticism, much like Rose and Wall did. I feel the Kings run the very real risk of breaking down Fox unless he is given help to lighten his load.
Davion!!
Perhaps this bar should be raised to 40 or 50 wins. Especially since 3 of the 4 years De’Aaron Fox has been on the Kings they’ve reached 30+ wins.
I know your point is that De’Aaron isn’t a leader regardless of win total. Did he steal your girl or piss in your cheerios or somethin’?
Sorry, 31 wins the last two years. My egregious and highly personal error. Typical Sacramento small town, persnickety thinking. Man, if we could just get that elusive 10 seed.
Believe me, I want Fox to lead this team to wins, and more importantly playoff wins, as much as anyone. He’s a super likable and sometimes brilliant player. But until any of that happens, he’s just another expendable empty stats guy. And in this case, one who frustratingly hasn’t learned how to fight through a screen on D in four years. I could care less if he scores 30 a night or whether he’s perceived as a leader, and I’m not even going to get into his inexplicable Luke love, just deliver the wins, and we’ll all shut the hell up.
I have to say that I’d be persnickety even if I were from New York, London or Hong Kong. I’m just a persnickety motherfucker by nature.
You want to see wins? Me too. I’d also like to see a roster capable of wins. Is De’Aaron Fox blameless? No. But I suspect if you took a poll of the fanbase and asked them whether or not the Kings ever had a legit shot at the playoffs during his 4 seasons in Sac, I’m guessing the answer is mostly no.
Fox needs to get better, alot better in key areas like shooting to make a real impact offensively. I’ve said this before. Who hasn’t? So my question becomes : Will De’Aaron Fox get better or not? I don’t know, but I would say he’s the best bet of anyone on the Kings roster currently to make at least an ASG or two.
Yeah, I could care even less about ASGs or the other popularity contests. Bottom line, true young stars turn around franchises quickly, regardless of roster. See Luka, Trae, Ja, Donovan just off the top of my head. This is year five for Fox. We shouldn’t even be discussing potential anymore.
You can give the best method actor a crap script and the resulting movie is still going to be crap despite that actor’s best efforts or the best supporting cast you’ve ever seen.
Fox gets handed his scripts from Walton. What are you expecting, here? 30+ wins is a freakin’ miracle, really.
Apparently Fox loves Walton, so maybe he likes Sharknado scripts, too.
“I coulda been a contender! ….for an Oscar…even in The Island Of Dr. Moreau!!”
This is a horrible joke even from the likes of you, Gonzo.
Oh. So Donovan Mitchell turned around a playoff team with Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert to a playoff team centered around Gobert and Mitchell? Huh. That’s a neat magic trick calling that a turnaround. Especially when the team Mitchell came to was a 51 win team the previous year. Oh, and the Jazz won 48 games Mitchell’s rookie year which isn’t exactly an improvement either. Certainly I think Donovan Mitchell deserves alot of credit for allowing the Jazz to move on so easily from Gordon Hayward. So that’s what qualifies as a turnaround huh?
Trae Young, who didn’t make the playoffs until year 3, and certainly benefitted from both a dramatic coaching change during the season and influx of talent onto the roster in the past offseason, did the dramatic turnaround. All by himself. Wonder how John Collins feels about that.
Ja Morant is an interesting case. They’ve certainly improved with him, but I think circumstances have played a large part, too. This is at least debatable. I’m 50 50 on this personally.
Luka has improved the Mavs chances at getting bounced in the 1st round. Beyond that he does not have as of yet a championship pedigree. Which is generally where players of Luka Doncic’s caliber are expected to be. Of course Luka also benefitted from a veteran head coach and veteran GM as well.
Discussing potential is not the same as discussing avenue for improvement. Davion Mitchell has potential to be a difference maker defensively. Jah’mius Ramaey has potential to be in a NBA rotation at some point. Discussing improvement for the most talented on the Kings roster isn’t discussing potential, it’s discussing ways to help the Kings win games. Isn’t that the point?
Okay, the Jazz were the #1 seed in the West with Donovan undeniably leading the way. I would call that a huge turnaround, yes. Take Trae, Ja, and Luka off those teams, and you have absolute garbage. Collins may be the most overrated player in the league. Watch his gangly footwork on D for a couple possessions. Watch him try to create when Trae’s out. We could go tit for tat on this stuff all day long.
When someone could “evolve into a scoring juggernaut” if they just learn how to hit free throws and take better shots, I would call that a “potential” discussion, but maybe that’s just me.
Mitchell is not even the best player on the Jazz.
The Hawks turned it around in year 3 after they got Capella. That Young-Capela pick and roll got much better because of how good Capela is as a roll man and an offensive rebounder. Capela also shoulders much of the Hawks’ defense. To be honest, if Capela was on the Kings instead of Holmes, we would have made playoff.
The Grizzlies is just a wide collection of similarly productive players. Morant is an excellent passer but he is below average as a scorer. They are still trying to figure out how to build a good offense around Morant. They focus in transition to create good shots because that is Morant’s strength. They are pretty bad in half court.
The Valanciunas trade shows that they understand that the team is not close to compete and they stick to collecting assets for the near future. This team is not going to make a jump unless Morant makes a big jump as a scorer.
Luka is a super star. There is not much to say about it.
Yeah, I don’t agree. Fox had the worst front office in sports in his first three seasons, and then a front office who effectively have sat on their hands waiting for the draft for last two offseasons. I don’t disagree with your individual criticisms of Fox, but I don’t think it’s fair to expect that he could drag this bad roster and inept coach to the playoffs. The number of players who could do that is small, and a lot smaller than your list, in my opinion.
I think you could argue Hield, Barnes, Bogdon were as good or better than the Mavs, Hawks, and Grizz rosters, but I hear you on the FO.
Regardless, Luka and Trae came into the league with far better developed skills than Fox. I think Fox’s growth trajectory isn’t even the same as them to really have a fair comparison. I think this year will be very telling.
This is the year De’Aaron puts it altogether, or doesn’t.
Also what’s funny about all this back and forth is that outside of the Jazz we actually are a bad matchup for the Mavs, Hawks, and Grizz lol. Well at least from what I remember. Every game against those teams is winnable. Also Trae is in the Eastern conference, his entry to the playoffs is not the same. He isn’t matching up against Lillard, Curry, Paul, Booker, Morant, Lebron, AD, Jokic, Doncic, Kawhi, George, Mitchell, etc 3-4 times a year. All those players I just named are on 9 different teams that are expected to be in the play in at a minimum. The East in contrast is extremely top heavy and seeds 4-10 are a crapshoot honestly. The eighth seeded team had a losing record for crying out loud. The Hawks literally have half a conference they can beat up on to get over .500. The FO and supporting cast definitely are a factor in giving Fox some leniency. Especially since he is improving. FWIW he averaged 30 ppg in the games played against the Mavs, Hawks, and Grizz this past season.
I don’t think that a fair comparison because those guys obviously took less time to develop and came into the league with more skills. Fox came into the league skinny without a jump shot and really only had his speed. Fox clearly wasn’t ready to lead the team in his first two years. It is like saying Kobe Bryant wasn’t a leader because his first two seasons, he only averaged 14 points and 19 points per game and he wasn’t much of a 3 point shooter. Some players takes time to develop. Fox is one of them.
Man, a whole lot of what if’s and excuses around here. An absurd 20 of 30 teams make the postseason. Fox hasn’t sniffed it in four, what will likely be five, years. He’s the max player. He’s the one with the ball in his hands when it counts. It’s on his shoulders now, like it or not.
Oh yeah, I forgot how good we were before Fox got here, then all of a sudden we couldn’t make the playoffs. Right.
Or we could trade him for Simmons and actually be in the playoffs. If only he wasn’t seen as a max level, untouchable guy whose game doesn’t translate to wins.
He’s the one with the ball in his hands when it counts. And he ranked amongst the elite in scoring when it really counted. It’s not like the excuses aren’t grounded in reality. Missing on Luka the rare time we had a miracle top 3 pick set this franchise back years especially since we never tank and Bagley is a big part of the problem with no signs of being a solution to anything. This site and STR are littered with we should tank to gather top talent comments during every season Fox has been in the league. The kings haven’t done that. The roster still has little depth and little talent past the top 6 players. So there is a legitimate argument this franchise hasn’t done it’s due diligence. We are praying we can outdo the Pelicans and Spurs for the 10th seed right now and are basically in a war of attrition with the higher seeded teams lead by players well into their 30s for our next playoff appearance. Appreciate the budding star we have.
Good breakdown, it really highlights that the changes that Fox needs to make are largely incremental, and certainly possible.
Just by cutting down his attempts from the top of the arc, and/or shifting those shots to the corners or closer to the hoop, those percentages should creep up. I’m still certain that Fox can manage a league-average number from three, both by continuing the work, and with relatively minor shifts in his shot selection.
I’m positive about the possibilities, as I expect that Fox will be able to play off the ball more with Haliburton and Mitchell increasingly running the show. If there was ever a guy who can get clear of his defender using his quickness and speed, that would be De’Aaron Fox. Even if that comes to pass, him having the ability to get to the rim essentially at will likely allows him more space by wary defenders, resulting in good shots, and more open passing lanes to find cutters.
Fox is smart, and he busts his ass. I don’t think he’s particularly close to his ceiling yet.
Last year, there were time when he was the offense. Not like D. Mitchell or Trae who were the offense as well but they were the offense by intention, Fox was the offense by default. I do think that Davion and Hali on the ball will help Fox- less pull up 3’s from the arc and more use of speed to cut to the hoop. And he has to improve FT’s.
I would like to see more lobs from him- he is just not good at that.
I would like to see improved efficiency, even if the points per game remain the same. He will not dominate the ball like Luka or Trae but can score in other ways. Ja is still inconsistent and behind.
I believe that Davion has to be a better passer going to the hoop, that will help Fox get easier shots.
Kings need to unmask Fox’s scoring potential. No fear!
😉
Karl Anthony Towns should give a talking to World B. Flat
This comment is extremely underrated, if I do say so myself!
I would not mind if Fox’s offensive numbers take a dip because I think it is not leading to winning basketball. We found out last year the guy can take over at the end of games if needed and I would rather see a dip in offensive numbers because he is more consistent on the defensive end or if other players are boosting up their numbers to give Fox more of a rest.
I agree with you that there are ways for Fox to be more productive by scoring less, but I don’t think that they’re necessarily tied to winning basketball, or for that matter, losing basketball.
If Fox was placed on a roster with even average relative talent, and play exactly as he did last year, that alone would result in winning basketball. Sacramento has had a dearth of talent 1-15 for over a decade, despite having players like Demarcus Cousins, who I feel could have had a Hall of Fame career had he not sustained such serious injuries.
It’s tough to conjure winning basketball when your other starters likely wouldn’t start for most teams, and a number of your bench guys wouldn’t be rostered elsewhere. I do feel that the talent is better now than it was a year ago, but I’d hedge on betting that the Kings can play .500 ball as things stand, regardless of what Fox does. I’d love to be wrong.
I want to see growth from Haliburton, for Mitchell to show steady improvement as he adjusts to the pro game, and the same from some of the other young guys, like Davis, Metu, and Ramsey. I hope that the vets will play solidly, and that the season will feel like a step or two in the right direction.
It’s not a lot to ask, but it is quite a lot to realize.
You’re saying Barnes, Holmes and Hield and Haliburton aren’t starters in this league?
Ok.
The talent issue can always be better but Joeger had a core of Fox, Hield, Bogi, WCS, and Barnes turn in a 39 win season. The issue, methinks, is one of coaching, not talent.
Totally agree that current starting roster is better than Joeger’s. Hali = Bogi and Holmes > WCS. Totally agree that Fox, Holmes, and Barnes are average to above average starters in this league. Hield is kind of a tough fit because he’s a specialist. The fifth starter is a bit of an issue. By the numbers, the starting five weren’t the issue for Sac last year, it was defense and depth. Hopefully that’s been resolved. If Walton gets off to a slow start, I think he’s gone. I’d be lining up replacements before the season even starts if I were McNair.
A little from Column A, a little from Column B…
I’m not sure whether Barnes is a starter on a contending team, Hield’s ideal position is as a sixth man, and despite everything that Holmes does, he’s undersized, doesn’t stretch the floor even a little, and I don’t think he starts on a team that has even a hope of contending.
I do like all of these guys, and feel the Barnes, and Hield in particular are undervalued in Sacramento, but I don’t think that either starts on a good team. They could be major contributors on a contender, but a team needing to start both ain’t a contender.
In regards to Barnes and Hield not starting on a “good” team or a “contender” I’m fairly certain the Lakers would start either immediately, probably Phila as well. Just off the top of my head.
The Kangz can score a ton. The Kangz cannot score more points than they allow.
Maybe they should focus on getting players to sacrifice a little scoring to play a little defense?
You don’t have sacrifice scoring for defense though. Defense leads to fast breaks and easy points.
Defense definitely does lead to fast breaks and easy points. The extra effort spent on defense will easily offset what they give up on the offensive focus.
This is exactly how the Kangz usually lose. They score a ton, the opponent plays defense for five minutes then goes on a 20-0 run. The Kangz stop playing and watch…..
I don’t really understand why you think that modern athletes are largely incapable of concentrating on one end of the floor without it being a detriment on the other.
I do not think that.
What is obvious is that the Kangz do not focus on defense. To change that the system of play needs to be changed which will change how they play offense. Offense generated from steals, rebounds, stops, etc….
This is a totally different game that Fox and the rest of his team plays now.
his scouting report from nbadraft.net
“The biggest obstacle for Fox in his transition to the NBA is his lack of a consistent jump shot … Fox made just 31% of his pull-up jumpers, and 20% of his spot up attempts in the half court this season”
I hope he can make a leap but progress on this front has been painfully slow
Career Stats
Player A- FG: 0.451; FT:0.772; 3pt%: 0.314
Player B- FG: 0.458; FT:0.718; 3pt%: 0.326
One is Fox the other is Monta Ellis…
VIvek does love him some Monta Ellis
This is the problem. The sooner the Kings can trade Fox for someone of value, the sooner they can get back to the playoffs. Curry and Klay sure benefitted from having Monta traded. Let the Davion/Hali era begin...
They also didn’t trade Monta before they saw Klay play in even one regular season game. He was a rookie like Davion. Steph was 2.5 season in. There is no track record yet to suggest Hali and Davion are it for the future.
They might be, but personally I would pump the breaks on that until maybe end of this season and Kings have seen Davion and Hali actually play together.
Taking the 12 year average stats and comparing to 4 year average stats is not exactly apples to apples.
So here are Year 4, Age 23 seasons from both players, per 100 to account for pace etc.
Player A – 26 pts, 5 asts, 6 rebs, .503 TS%, 1.4:1 Asts/TO ratio, PER 14.5, Usage 26%
Player B – 34 pts, 10 asts, 5 rebs, .565 TS%, 2.4:1 Asts/TO ratio, PER 20.7, Usage 31%
I mean I guess if you want to say they are similar players you can and I guess you could argue to trade Player B…but I know which one I would certainly take between those two.
The only issue I have with this is sample size, and I think you should have used year 5 instead of year 4 for Monta just based on minutes played.
That said, year 4 De’Aaron > year 5 Monta IMO.
I almost did just for that purpose…but felt 25 games and nearly 1000 minutes was close enough to a decent sample, while not being ideal. PLus then it was exactly their same development year.
As you said though, either year probably proves the point.
If anything, it strengthens your argument not weakens it. Monta’s best years came alongside Baron Davis, not Steph Curry.
Depends on the sophistication of those looking at the data ; )
I’m not very sophisticated so I’m not sure I understand your point….
I’m gonna be honest, I didn’t read the article very thoroughly, because in my opinion he’s already a scoring juggernaut.
Yes, his free throws need to improve (I think he, unlike some other players on the team, has very above average self-awareness and actually works on his flaws during the off-season.) His 3 point shooting could get a bit better but for all the gravity he brings to an offense, I’m not quibbling over him being 1-3 points better a game. Other teams respect the hell out of his ability to attack the rim, pass, shoot mid-range and he finally got some respect for his long ball last year.
Could he be a bigger scoring juggernaut? Sure. But there’s also 4 other guys on offense (assuming Luke isn’t implementing Vivek’s 4 on 5 philosophy) who will be required to put in some work on the offensive end. Fox is doing more than his fair share of the workload on offense, I’m more concerned with the rest of the squad’s contributions at this point.
I agree with you on Fox being an elite scorer. Fox brings clutch scoring which is all an elite scorer needs to bring. A guy that can get tough buckets when they are absolutely needed, or at least enough gravity to allow other guys easy buckets. I don’t think he needs to exhibit those elite skills on every single possession to help this team.
I do think that the Kings have enough scoring options to keep them in games. Holmes/Hali PnR game is pretty darn good. Hield 3pt shot is pretty darn good. Those are two other solid scoring options.
This team’s shortfall isn’t lack of scoring, it’s lack of defense. Hopefully the improvements seen at the end of last season, combined with what appears to be a really good on ball defender in Davion, a new defensive coach in Longabardi, and an acknowledged need for improvement on that end by the players will help resolve that. I’d pin hopes for improvement on moving the abysmal defense to average more than I would on moving the elite scoring of Fox to super elite.
I would like to see improvements both on offense and defense. A top 10 offense and a slightly below average defense is a reasonable target.
The Hawks was 8th on offense and 21st on defense last year and that got them pretty far.
Amen. Work on one end first, and incrementally improve the other. It would be nice if the Kings could generate a few extra easy baskets in the open court for players not named De’Aaron Fox.
Any time you’d like to get together, go to cineplexes, run into theaters as the credits begin, and scream, “I didn’t see the movie, but I’m here to explain what was wrong with it!” I am absolutely on board.
I’d quit my job to do that shit.
If the movie is the 5th iteration of Aladdin…
How many years in a row are we going to talk about De’Aaron making a leap? Also, I must have missed the part where I say I didn’t read it at all so relax, Crouching Tiger.
BTW- and wrong thread to post on–
Bucks hired Lisa Byington as play by play. She is good.
However, she is not anywhere near as experienced as Kayte, who was hired as “color analyst” Kayte is the better hire.
Super OT: Holy crap, “the-site-that-shall-not-be-named” is really going down the toilet!
https://twitter.com/companeromarcus/status/1438263545737719811
Wonder if they (the commenter communities) can create Discord communities for themselves. I think I’ve joined about 10 or 11 Discord communities now. Never really wanted to, but it seems kind of popular for some communities to make a better community for themselves away from the original content space.
On that note, it’d be nice to see the TKH Discord get some more traffic. It’s kind of stagnant right now, but the other communities I’m a member of are really active and engaged.
They haven’t switched over AN yet…. which is nice. I think that’s coming next month.
He already is a scoring juggernaut in the 4th quarter. Otherwise, maybe he can improve by picking his spots more efficiently, not only by the type of shot but how he feels in the moment. If he does not want to shoot from the top of the key on a particular possession, and that happens to be what the defense is giving him, pass in to Haliburton and play off ball. I think Jerry Reynolds suggested that in a podcast last season.
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