Two weeks ago, the Milwaukee Bucks loomed along with others as foreboding opponents and signs of a tougher road ahead. Things were bad and the schedule ahead suggested things were going to keep getting worse. Incredible how big a difference a couple weeks can make in the NBA. Now, this is a matchup between two 20-win teams. It should be a tough test, we all know better than to overlook Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, but right now it feels like the Sacramento Kings can beat any team on any given night.
Let’s talk Kings basketball!
When: Tuesday, January 14th, 5:00 PM PST
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
TV: NBA TV, NBCSCA
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140 AM
For Your Consideration
For much of this season, and even dating back to last season, the Sacramento Kings struggled with the math problem around three pointers. The Kings allowed opponents to shoot a high volume of threes, and because most of those looks were open, opponents converted at a high rate as well. At the same time the Kings were taking a below-average volume of threes, and missing them. It’s a hard math problem to overcome, and the Kings often didn’t.
The first few games under Doug Christie weren’t significantly different, but the new year has seen a new Kings team. Over 13 games in December the Kings attempted 35.2 threes per game and made 35.4% (their best month of the year up to the point both in volume and makes). In 6 games in January, the Kings are taking 40.8 threes per game and making 40.8%. Small sample size alarms are blaring behind me, but I’m ignoring them because these numbers back up what we’re seeing. The Kings are free, they are taking threes in the flow of the game, they are shifting to attack the rim if the threes aren’t falling, but that newfound freedom is resulting in makes. As for Sacramento’s opponents, they’re shooting 38.7 threes per game, slightly above the season’s average of 38.4, but are only hitting 36.2%, well below the season average of 37.6%. In November Kings opponents shot 38.5% from 3, in December is was 38.4%. The defensive adjustments have paid off so far. 36.2% is still below league average for 3 point defense, but we’ll enjoy seeing progress in the right direction.
The trends will face a solid test in this game. The Bucks are 15th in the league in 3PAs, but the league’s second best three point shooting team, making 38.6% of their threes. Teams are still taking an above-average number of threes against the Kings, knowing that Sacramento has given up plenty of good looks this season. Can the Kings run the Bucks off the line? Can they contest Milwaukee’s shots and hold them to a lower conversion rate? That could be the key to this one.
As the Kings work to solve the three pointer math problem, Doug Christie now has a new math problem to solve for: guard rotations. With the Kings back healthy, it’s a challenge finding the right balance of minutes between De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, Keon Ellis, Kevin Huerter, and Devin Carter. Even with a win in Chicago, it’s easy to wonder if Ellis should have played more. Striking the right balance is a problem born of this team’s continued roster imbalance, and the problem will continue until a trade is made the unload a guard in favor of a forward or a big. We’ll see how Doug handles the mix tonight against a Bucks team that has some size to it.
The Kings will be healthy for this one. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton, and Gary Trent Jr is listed as questionable, while Giannis is listed as Probable. Even if Trent sits, the Bucks should have plenty of weapons.
Update: Just kidding. The Kings will not be healthy and Doug has no roster balance to figure out tonight. Malik Monk was just added to the injury report with a sore groin and will miss this game.
Prediction
Giannis is stifled by Keegan Murray, De’Aaron Fox and Damian Lillard give us a show, but this time it’s Fox hitting the heartbreaking buzzer beater.
Kings 117, Bucks 116
Monk is out tonight with a sore goin.
Man, it’s so bad it’s missing the r.
Yup, Monk’s goin to sit out!
And so is his groin…
groan.
So it should be Keon on Lillard. Monk will be missed but this is one of the occasions it is good to have plenty of capable guards.
I’m at least comfortable knowing that we’ll have Ellis and Carter there to fill in should Monk not play tonight.
Early season the Bucks were clowned.
They’ve mostly now turned things around.
But we’re no longer bleak;
Let’s extend our win streak
So this road trip will truly astound!
+1 Let’s ride the Bucks for a win!
&ct=g
Walk Kevin Huerter over to the Bucks locker room and come back with Bobby Portis.
Bucks fans don’t seem to want Portis. I get the sense he’s not the player we remember from the title run, though maybe Huerter is also at an equally low point in value.
While Portis may not be what he once was, he’d still be a huge upgrade to our forward rotation right now, in my opinion.
Getting Portis for Huerter would a challenge because the salaries are about $4.5m different and the Bucks can’t make a deal with multiple players going out because they are a 2nd apron team.
Yeah, I messed around with the trade machine and really couldn’t make things work numbers wise.
Yeah we can’t really trade for him with Huerter. We’d need either a third team or to send something else. I’m just saying in general I still like Portis.
They could if the trade would make the Bucks’ cap below the 2nd apron.
You could do Huerter for Portis and Connaughton. But the Bucks would not do that. Portis is still very productive.
That also fails trade machine because what’s incoming to Kings exceeds 125% of Huerter’s salary
Shoutout to Greg for putting in an Ellisesque effort keeping up with all the new threads!
Go Kings!
Huge stretch of games here. It took a herculean effort to dig the Kings out of a hole, now it’s going to take a second herculean effort to stay out. Going to have to beat tough teams to stay in position to compete – imagine that. No excuses, sink or swim.
I’ll add that I’m quite nervous about Fox being back. Without him things looked pretty fluid – everyone, including bench guys, were empowered to take their shots as they came within the flow of the offense. But with Fox back, that last game against Chicago was clunky.
Maybe it’s just a fluke, but it appears the Fox-Monk-DDR lineups are simply not working. Too many cooks on offense, not enough size and length on defense. All 3 of them on the floor at once is mitigating their strengths and exacerbating their weaknesses. Maybe I’m wrong.
For now, I’ll put my trust in Doug. But if things go south you’re gonna see me banging the table for either Monk/DDR to become the 6th man, or for De’aaron to get traded for young talent to rebalance the roster (Jabari Smith, Stephon Castle & Sochan, etc.)
And as always, Go Kings!
Regarding Fox, 4 of the 7 wins have come with him in the lineup. And he was probably the 2nd best King on the floor in Chicago, behind only Sabonis. Monk and Lyles were a combined 1-13 from deep in that game. DDR had 21 on 20 shots, while Fox had 26 on 16. Fox was also the team’s 2nd leading rebounder with 9. He was the only starter other than Domas to shoot better than 50% from the floor, and was the most effective King from beyond the arc at 4-8. He had a great game coming off a layoff. Monk, DeRozan, Fox and Lyles all had similar usage, but Fox was the only one among them to effectively produce from start to finish.
It’s one thing for Fox to get the blame when he does not play well. It’s something else when he is tasked with the sins of others.
And 1 – Had Fox had Monk’s game and Monk had Fox’s game, Monk would be canonized while Fox would be cannonized.
Just to play Devil’s advocate, I don’t think anyone is worried about Fox getting his numbers. On most nights he is going to lead in the box score category, but the league is full of guys like that and some don’t equal winning basketball…see Zach LaVine, LaMelo Ball, etc. I think the issue for some is the fit of Fox, Monk, and DDR going forward, which I believe has some merit. It’s not a knock on Fox, or Monk, or DDR individually, it’s a knock on the team play with those 3 leading in field goal attempts and minutes virtually every night.
I totally believe you understand what I’m saying, and may even agree a bit. I feel it’s very understandable some of us are holding our breath to see how things play out for the next few games.
23 days until the deadline and this roster is still very unbalanced. Here’s hoping Monte doesn’t feel that Christie was the cure all to this season, because I don’t feel he is.
I think the fit between those three is clunky, but I do not think that is a Fox problem. I think if you remove any one of the three, the flow improves.
And that’s how Fox, Monk & Derozan forever became known as the 3 Kidney Stones
This too shall “pass.”
Yeah, I can subscribe to that. I should also state that one needs to be removed from the roster, it’s just that when all three are out there we get a bit of clunk when we want the funk. Maybe limit the minutes all three share on the floor?
This is not your comment, but the one that I was responding to. A classic example of correlation is not causation.
Two points:
1. Not saying the game was clunky BECAUSE of Fox, but because of the redundancy with Monk and DDR.
2. I’d argue your point of “Fox got his numbers and the team won” could also be considered an example of correlation not equaling causation. I’d evidence this by pointing out that 2 blowout wins happened without Fox, and the 4 wins he was a part of were down to the wire against teams not at full strength! The offense simply seems more explosive when it is decentralized and the ball is popping. In particular, DDR and Fox are the ball stoppers on this squad.
I’ll opt for the larger sample size over the smaller sample size. The larger sample size says that this team has been better when Fox plays than not.
De’Aaron Fox is a talent. One problem that the Kings do not suffer from is too much talent.
I’m fine keeping Fox. I am just firmly against the Fox-Monk-DDR lineups. DC needs to figure out how to stagger the minutes because the eye test and the numbers suggest it hasnt been good.
A classic example of correlation is not necessarily causation.
The game did look more clunky, whether that was because Fox was back is undetermined, nobody can say definitively.
Great point- Monk has achieved fan-favorite status while Fox is slightly polarizing. I suppose, mainly because Fox has the max money and is the face of the franchise so that will come with some criticism. While Monk stayed at a discount. Rarely hear Monk mentioned in trade threads.
Their styles of play also feed into that, Monk is an athletic, fiery, sparkplug and can go on ridiculous heaters. Even when he’s out of control or shooting poorly, at least he’s aggressive and out there doing something, in comparison to Fox’s surgical nonchalance and occasional passivity. Unfair, but it’s far more entertaining when Monk has a bad game than when Fox does.
I’ve been up and down on Fox over the years and have often pushed for blowing everything up, but at this point I’d much rather ride with Fox than without. Remembering the W’s series, he and Monk were the only ones that really came to play, while Domas struggled and everyone else wilted badly.
And Fox did that playoff series with a damaged finger.
I think this is going to be an interesting stretch if Monk ends up being out for a couple games. So we will have small, recent samples of Monk and Fox, Monk without Fox and Fox without Monk.
My suspicion is it is going to tell us Keon playing next to either of them is the key. I think Fox and Monk are redundant in many ways and Keon does the little things neither of them do.
I wonder if there’s any way we could pry Santi Aldama out of Memphis. Big forward with a shooting touch? Sign me up.
The Grizzlies have an abundance of guys who can play PF (Clark, Aldama, LaRavia, GG Jackson). I’m not sure we have anyone, besides Keon, they’d want in return.
Luke Kennard for Kevin Huerter!
oh wait… nm.
They tried to package Kennard in the DFS trade and Brooklyn said Nyet and he went to the Lakers (where he seems awfully quiet).
Memphis would be nuts to part with Aldama who has had a wonderful season for them. I would love to have him and Keegan in the frontcourt with Domas.
I’m still of the belief that Ainge is going to move John Collins. He’s just not really apart of their future and is currently hurting their ability to “Capture the Flagg.” I’m guessing Ainge’s asking price is far too high, but he may come down by the deadline. Huerter and Lyles for Collins works perfectly and so does DDR for Collins.
I feel like now it’s less that Ainge asks for too much and more that he just seems to want to screw the other team if he can. Or maybe it’s both.
Ha! I could totally see Ainge being the kind of GM that will absolutely not make any other team better, even it it helps his own more. He strikes me as the kind of GM that will only make moves to hurt any of the other 29 teams while marginally making his own team better. He’s a bit of a chaos agent.
Yup I don’t think Ainge makes any kind of move that doesn’t involve extracting painful levels of draft capital or young prospects. He’d have zero incentive moving Collins for any vets other than for salary matching for the same reason that it hurts the tank.
Not totally opposed to that trade but I think a second deal for a backup 5 would be needed otherwise it feels like a small upgrade and they are still a big short. When Lyles plays well, like lately, the Kings win. I wish for a way to add Collins but keep Lyles.
I think DFS will be starting over Rui at some point this year. Unlike some coaches we know, it’s not Reddick’s style to start people off the street.
I hate seeing Monk out, but I really think Keon should start. Since for the first time in Kings history there is no reliable small forward… the extra defense is needed.
Yup. I 100% believe that Keon should start against a team like the Bucks, regardless if Monk is hurt or not. Keon glued to Lillard is the prescription to possible win tonight.
Yeah, tag team Keon and Devin.
Keon and Devin on Lillard:

Nice!
You asked?
Beam City Team > Cream City Team
Interesting match ups between these two lineups. I am confused that Milwaukee has three guys named AJ (Green, Johnson, Andre Jackson, Jr). The front court is big – if you count Giannis, Brook Lopez (aging), Portis but they don’t have much other than that as one of my favorites – Khris Middleton (one of the players I see as a model for Keegan) has had injury after injury and is out again tonight. Taurean Prince has done well for them, is 4th in minutes, but he’s a 5th man/bench guy (though I’d like him on Sacramento).
Giannis is a beast and having a great season. If the Kings can contain Dame and the others, I like their chances.
It’s a 3 Point League:
Greg covered this well. I have nothing to add.
Light that Beam! Go Kings!
Greg,
Just want to say what a great preview this was. I don’t always have a lot of time to check stats, and this was exactly what I needed to get a feel for what to expect. Thanks!
Nothing to do with the game, but yeeeeeeesh: It’s 17 degrees F in Milwaukee today, and that’s not even the coldest it will be. This coming Monday it’s going to be 3 degrees.
Ice Cream City
I’ll be watching Keegan shutting down Giannis down the stretch if game is close. Go Kings!
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