In a breakdown on the Kings season, which I highly suggest you check out, Bobby Marks highlighted Murray’s role on the team:
“When you draft a guy in the top 10 and you basically don’t play through him, and you don’t use him and he’s basically an afterthought, it will be interested what he will get (in terms of an extension),” Marks said.
The numbers and Murray’s own comments do support that narrative.
His defensive metrics show great growth and potential while his role on the offense has been on a downward spiral since his rookie year in which he set the record for three pointers made by a rookie (what happened to that guy?). And now he is eligible for an extension and Vivek Ranadive, errr, I mean Scott Perry, needs to decide if the team should lock in Murray’s potential and give him the room to blossom, or continue to overlook a player who more likely than not would turn into a highly productive two-way player elsewhere.
A Defensive Anchor, An Offensive Afterthought
Statistically, Murray has steadily grown into a good defensive player. Here are some stats from his third season on the defensive side of the ball, according to Cleaning The Glass:
- He closed out the season in the 84th percentile in opponent points allowed per 100 possessions when he is on the floor, a steady improvement since his first year (he was 19th percentile then).
- Opponents shot 3.4% worse when he was on the floor (good for the 93rd 12th percentile in his rookie season).
- His block percentage jumped from 66th percentile his rookie season to 83rd this season and his offensive rebounding percentage climbed from 57th percentile two seasons ago to 79th this season.
- The top 5 best Kings lineups this season in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, opponent effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding percentage all included Murray.
It is undeniable that he has a big impact on that side of the ball while illustrating he is coachable and adaptable.
But when you throw high-usage extraordinaries DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Malik Monk next to him and largely reduce the offensive role of Domantas Sabonis (his usage rate was the lowest since his second season in the NBA), who helped him go scorched Earth from three with dribble hand offs in his rookie season, you begin to take away much of any consistent role Murray could have on the offensive side of the ball.
Murray’s usage rate dropped dramatically this season: all the way down to the 19th percentile. Additionally, his points per shot attempt has declined from 72nd percentile in his first season, to 50th percentile in his second season, to 41st percentile this season. Yet his turnover percentage rate has remained elite: staying between the 92nd percentile and 96th percentile in his first three seasons.
His three-point percentage dropped from 41 percent in his rookie season to 34 percent this season.
Growth Without a Role
In his exit interview, Murray was his usual friendly and stoic self, admitting he was proud of his progress on defense, but also talked about the offensive challenges: “I’m not disappointed. I think, especially defensively, I took a really big leap. Being able to guard one through five effectively is really hard in the league. There’s not many people that can do it. But obviously, offensively, you want to be a little bit better and things like that. But there’s not really an excuse or anything. It’s just putting my head down and still working. Work harder this summer, just figure out different things.”
When asked about having to guard every position on the court, including centers, he responded honestly, “Ideally, I don’t want to be guarding the five-man every game. It’s not the most fun thing in the world. But if I have to do it, I have to do it regardless of who’s on our team, who’s not.”
When asked about having to play a different role on the team in each of this first three seasons he responded with: “Yeah, I’ve obviously had to fill different roles within the team, now that I think about, it every year. With me, I think eventually it’ll pay off. I know that eventually good things are going to happen, things like that. I’m not worried about anything. I know my time is going to come, and whether it’s next year or a couple of years after, I know eventually it’ll be my time.”
And it is true that he has developed nicely on defense, and if he keeps that as part of his game for the rest of his career it is going to make him valuable, but the fact that he followed it up with “my time is going to come” hints at the larger point — he is doing what is asked, growing quietly, and waiting patiently for that larger role on offense.
The Kings drafted Murray with the fourth overall pick and just as Marks said, to draft a player that high and not run more of your offense through him is an issue. Now, Murray isn’t always as aggressive as he should be on the floor, and he had a pattern of passing up shots that Mike Brown would always harp on. So, this isn’t all on the Kings, but the offense, especially this season didn’t exactly lend itself to presenting Murray with many opportunities. There are only so many shots to go around and when LaVine, DeRozan, Monk and Sabonis all need shots and are making all of the decisions on offense. There isn’t much Murray could do but buckle down and try to fill the leaking ship on the other side of the ball.
Here he Murray on the team’s changes on offense:
“I think in a way, it’s been difficult just because, especially my first year, we were just so used to the DHO game, the split action, and just all guys moving at the same time, and you never know who’s going to get the shot. But, yeah, I guess a little bit has been difficult, but at the end of the day, it is who we have on our roster, and we have to make it work if we want to have success.”
He was the fourth or fifth option on offense this season operating as a floor spacer and charged with the dirty work while a lot of dribbling went on around him.
What’s Next: A Test of Direction and Identity
The Kings needs to make a decision on Murray this summer because he eligible for an extension.
When asked about this, Murray said this: “I haven’t thought too much into it, to be honest. With everything that’s going on this year. But obviously, I want to be in Sacramento. It’s where I was drafted, things like that. Just, I guess, have talks and stuff and talk to my agent, see what’s going on, figure it out from there.”
It is nice that Murray expresses loyalty to the Kings given the amount of instability around him. It is on the Kings now to truly define what they want him to be moving forward. Is he going to continue to be a versatile, plug-and-play role player? Or will they give him more of a defined role that includes growth on offense and adjust the system to cater to that a little more?
The team needs to find out quickly if he truly is a highly productive two-way player, a three and D role player, a franchise cornerstone…it needs to be defined.
“I want to buy each player a mirror because at first, we’re going to look at ourselves, and that starts with me, each and every day. And so, there is going to be an accountability first and foremost, that am I doing everything as an individual to make this team successful? And then whoever we have in here to coach, it’s going to be their job, and I’m going to be behind the scenes helping, to make sure that we maximize what they can do on the court. So, Keegan is still a young player. I’m very confident in what he can be. I’ve spoken to him like I’ve spoken to all of the players already because that was one of the most important things for me to do that and I think he’ll be just fine. But he knows he’s got to come in here and work and earn everything he gets.”
Murray has proven to be coachable and productive with upside and a strong work ethic. It is up to the Kings to figure out how to act on it accordingly and find the answer. On the flip side, it is up to Murray to take that offensive role.
When Murray said his time is going to come it likely wasn’t out of arrogance, it stems from belief in himself and probably because he knows he can do more on offense given the opportunity. He does need to be more aggressive at times, but we won’t truly know how big of an issue that is until he actually gets a legitimate opportunity over an extended amount of time with a higher usage rate.
Here is to hoping the Kings figure it out before it is too late.
Good stuff, Blake.
I really want the Kings to move on from DeRozan, replace him with more of a Harrison Barnes style player (low usage, versatile, good defensively), and get Keegan involved more. Like Blake noted, Keegan has shown some offensive growth, but the ball would rarely come his way for long stretches of the game. Sure, Keegan could ask/demand the ball more, but with Fox/DDR/LaVine/Monk/Domas on the court at various times, the pecking order was set. Take the year and see what he can do when he is featured more offensively.
I would like to see a few (realistic) players paired with Keegan in the frontcourt:
Jabari Smith Jr.
Santi Aldama
Herb Jones
P.J. Washington
The reason Keegan isn’t having a good offensive game this year( defense is great ) is LaVine, Derozan and Murray. When DDR brings the ball down the court and plays iso ball how can Keegan get the ball in his hands. Same with LaVine and Monk. That makes Keegan a 4th or 5th option. Not Good. Take 2 of the 3 out of the equation and Murray now becomes the second or third option. The other reason he is not getting the ball is the lack of a really good point guard and run the offense thru him. Murray now has a chance to show what he can do offensively. My guess would be around 18 points per game, 5 to 6 rebounds a game and maybe 2or 3 assists. IMO he would also be back up to around 40% from three. KEEP HIM and trade DDR and Monk.
Mistake on above comment.The reason is LaVive Derozan and Monk not Murray. My mistake.
I agree. DDR just didn’t fit with the roster. Monk can be fine, but he didn’t seem to pass to Keegan much, from my eye test (I could be wrong as I can’t find those stats right now). He was more focused on the PnR with Domas and scoring himself.
I also had DDR and a second for Andrew Nembhard and Jarance Waiker. Nembhard our starting point guard and Walker a power forward next to Keegan.
It might take more to get Nembhard, but I think he would be pretty good.
Once I had Monk for Jabari Smith and either Whitmore or Tate. The other was Monk and 2 seconds for Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado. Jose would be our point guard next year.
Imagine a defense with Ellis, Jones/Smith Jr., and Keegan on the wing. Add in Carter and LaRavia ,too. That would be some damn good defense right there. Get that group a PG with Domas and things would be interesting.
Herb Jones would be such a boon for this roster. Also, he and Keon were college buddies.
How about Monk and a second or two for Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado?Jose would be our point guard.
I fear Herb Jones is worth a first round pick and more than Monk. He’s all NBA defensive team on a very good contract.
You are probably right. How about Monk and a first for Jones and Alvarado. Jones paired with Ellis and Murray would be a killer defense. Jose would also be a good fit at point guard. You get 2 for 1 both starters.
Too many ball hogs on the team. No chance for him to develop offensively. Get rid of DeRozan, move Monk to the bench and let Murray and Lavine be the 1-2 punch.
Murray is the perfect Alfred, and Sabonis is a fine Robin. Unfortunately, the roster is bereft of Batman, and is instead loaded with Jokers (not Denver’s), Riddlers, and more than one Mr. Freeze. If the Kings do not retain Murray, he will be much better somewhere else.
Agree – we want him to be a burgeoning Bruce Wayne, though he does not seem to have the ambition to be The Caped Crusader. Maybe he just needs the opportunity (I am thinking of the Mikal Bridges that changed from Phoenix to Brooklyn) but he seems to show initiative for the first 4 minutes of the 1st Quarter, and then fades into the background the other 44 minutes.
Maybe he’s destined to be more Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris or Shane Battier than Khris MIddleton or Paul George or Mikal Bridges.
In my mind, he needs to be thrust into the limelight as the primary scorer (remember the post-Rookie California Classic games when he averaged 35ppg for two games? That seems long ago). If the Kings could somehow acquire a Top player, maybe a clutch player who can score, defend and run the offense like a De’Aaron Fox – oh, wait – that likely won’t push Keegan into the #2 scoring option as trading away all of Zach, DDR, Monk is a big unlikely. And then he’s got to grab the reins, which is an unknown. (side: How about that big Step Up from Detroit’s Cade Cunningham, who had seemed to be more rhythm guitarist than lead)
In the It’s Just a Simile, not an Epic Story front: The beam is the Bat Signal, The Bat Cave is Golden1 Arena, Doug Christie is Commissioner Gordon. I like it! Is Vivek Bane and Matina Two-Face?
I was going to bring up the growth of Mikal as well, along with Markkanen. Those two “broke out” once offenses were built with them in mind. As their usage shot up, so did their production. Of course, it took a change of scenery for them to accomplish this, and I hope the same won’t be for Keegan. How about just trade off all the high usage wings in front of Keegan in the pecking order and make it feel like a major change to unlock him offensively?
What worries me is that Doug didn’t show any effort to alter the offensive trajectory over the last half of the season. The Kings just became more iso dominant and let Sabonis and Keegan wither on the vine,
Scott Perry brought up an interesting point, that many of us have considered often.
What is The Sacramento Kings style?
Of course, it is Coach and/or player dependent, isn’t it? Coach Spo and Coach Pop’s teams play a certain way and that amplifies a certain player. They are system coaches. Davion Mitchell is a good example, and on the opposite end, the Martin brothers and Gabe Vincent are another.
Having a “system” means that you have a strong (and successful) leader in the Head Coach, and a supporting, complimentary GM/Front Office/Ownership and you have to have the patience to weather the lean years and the bountiful ones.
So that blows that right out of the water. Thanks Vivek and Matina!
The Lakers are a star driven franchise, Boston to some degree as well. Golden State is Steve Kerr and the Steph/Dray Warriors, New York are Thibodeau’s Knicks and Los Angeles are Ty Lue’s Clippers, and I’ll add Houston’s Rocket is Coach Udoka. Denver is the Joker’s team, Giannis is the Bucks. I guess OKC is a Daigneault/SGA mix.
I pine for the Pete Carrill/Rick Adelman/Petrie Kings of yesteryear, but hiring those players is as close as that style restoration we’ve seen.
I feel Monte and Brown had a system/style. After the Sabonis trade, Monte went out and got guys to put around Sabonis. That first offseason with Domas, Monte drafted Keegan, signed Monk and traded for Huerter. He built a squad to put around Domas with DHOs, cutting, and three point shooting that made for a fun and effective offense. He even extended Barnes after the lone playoff year. All was well!!
Then the 23-24 season came up short, in part due to injuries and opponent’s adjustments. They missed the playoffs and, IMO, Vivek once again began to meddle. Last summer they swap out Barnes for DDR and all went to hell. Vivek couldn’t leave well enough alone and then Sabonis and Keegan were grossly misused.
I agree with your timeline on when Vivek got impatient. Didn’t Amick write something about Monte having a deal ready for Collins, but that being nixed so we went after DDR? Wonder if that was Brown or Vivek?
I wonder what kind of conversation we’d be having today if DDR had not come to Sac and the team targeted someone like Collins or even retained Barnes (who quietly just had the best shooting year of his career with the Spurs).
Fox may have put up better numbers, made all-nba, and not wanted out.
Keegan would have gotten more touches.
Brown and Monte may still have a job
Kings might still be in the playoffs.
I really do think DDR was a knee-jerk reaction that the Kings pulled. It was a full week into free agency and I’m guessing other opportunities had already passed. It’s almost like Vivek jumped onto some basketball site and looked at a list of best available free agents and saw DDR was at the top.
Have to implement some sort of offense next season. The just figure it out as you go shit Doug ran out there is not going to work.
Is it hard to change/restructure an NBA offense mid-season? Seems like they could have just started the DHO more with Keegan, but they seemed to just go with DDR and LaVine.
Nice write-up Blake!
Interested to see what kind of extension he signs this summer or if they let him go to RFA
I feel they should extend him now, which may come cheaper. Should he step things up next season and hit RFA, he’d only cost more.
I feel the same way. Though Keegan and his agent may choose to wait and hope he has a most improved player type of season.
The best teams in today’s NBA (sans the Lakers) draft and develop their own talent. The Kings, in the Vivek era, had done a piss poor job of this. The win now approach of Vivek comes at the cost of proper development of talent.
Since Vivek purchased the team, the Kings have extended just one rookie scale deal that they drafted. That was Fox. Buddy was extended but wasn’t drafted by the Kings. That’s it. That’s the list of “developed” talent over the past dozen years.
I agree with just about everything Blake mentioned. The Kings have made Keegan an afterthought and instead have prioritized and focused on older and more expensive talent to score the basketball. I don’t blame Keegan one bit for how things have slipped for him this past year. Remove the high usage and iso dominant players from the team and watch Keegan flourish. You can’t blossom when you are in the shadow of others.
I would say Keon has been developed and IJ could be too.
I think in today’s NBA creating a pipeline of 2nd round picks and undrafted players is extra important. To bad we’ve traded all our 2nd rounders thru like 2031, but I guess we get the next two back sans lottery luck.
But yeah, same should be happening with the first rounders, but we keep trading those away too.
I hope IJ gets some real PT this year, I’d like to see him play consistently with a well-defined role.
We are so used to bad defense, we are really overrating Keegan’s D. Every elite defender has an intimidation factor, something that worries opponents. Keegan is as intimidating as a teddy bear. You can sense that he forces himself to be physical, but it doesn’t come natural to him.
Offensively, as much as the roster and lack of scheme is hurting him, he’s not doing himself many favors by being so timid and non-assertive.
If the Kings aren’t going to prioritize his development, they’re better off trading him while he still has value.
Strongly disagree.
Intimidation has absolutely nothing to do with effective defense. The fact that Keegan makes opponents take shots that are slightly more difficult than they normally would be is what makes him a good defender.
Just because the other team’s primary ballhandler doesn’t just immediately pass the ball away as soon as they see Murray defending them doesn’t mean anything about his actual effectiveness and impact on that end of the floor.
The few games he missed this year were absolutely painful to watch because there was no one in the front court playing defense. I think you might be underestimating how bad most of the others are at guarding their own assignments.
Agreed. There nothing intimidating about Alex Caruso, Herb Jones, Evan Mobley, or Dyson Daniels, but they are all league defenders.
True.
When I think of intimidating defenders, I think of people like Ron Artest (mostly for the implied threat of impending violence), Dikembe Mutumbo, or Ben Wallace. I admit the intimidation factor does help shot-blockers make an outsized impact when opponents start taking less shots at the rim or take bad shots due to the fear of getting blocked, but that’s not how Keegan plays defense (he just stays tall with chest to the opponent, keeps himself between his man and the basket, he doesn’t reach, and he doesn’t go for fakes very often – just fundamentals).
It’s true that Keegan’s development has been horribly ‘Kangzed’ but I also agree that he’s no Jaden McDaniels-type ‘stopper’. He was fun to watch on the Beam Team, which no longer exists. He and Monk are the most tradeable assets. Who the hell is taking Da Bullz? He is likely to flourish with proper use and development elsewhere, and likely to stagnate here, then leave.
One more.
Tim Duncan wasn’t intimidating either, just damn good. To your point though, I would like to see Keegan with more attitude. He doesn’t have to be KG crazy though. It could just be me, but he tends to play like “he” believes he’s not as good as the other players on the court. He’s wrong. Keegan has game. He just needs to be more aggressive.
100% It’s as if you watch the actual games.
More Keegan’s = good.
Less Keegan’s = bad.
Give me 2 Keon Ellises (Elliss? Ellisii?) and 3 Keegan Murrays and I’ll give you a minimum 6 seed every year.
Keegan is part of the solution and I believe it would be a massive mistake to trade him short of getting Edwards, Giannis, or a Taytum-type player in return.
He is being underutilized offensively and is the kind of player who consistently gets better every year, has a quality mindset, and has the flexibility to play almost any style of play.
IMO you have three choices for the up coming season. 1: stay pad maybe find a point guard. 2: blow the whole thing up and start over. 3: Rebuild using those players that have some trade value.
IDK – There could be a ton of player movement this off-season and the Kings could look wildly different.
When I look at the players who are most easily replaced by others on the roster who also might help in getting something return for “on the fly” rebuild…I see the following players:
Monk – Carter could take more minutes at backup PG or the team could resign Fultz, Mason, or sign any number of available guys and get away with it for a single year.
DDR – Does not fit how team needs to play going forward (per Perek’s presser). LaVine and Murray should be taking more shots running off of Domas’ DHOs/screens. Ideally, Murray would be playing SF most of the time and the team doesn’t maximize its other player’s talents when they all stand around to watch DDR shoot jumpers.
LaVine – I mention LaVine due to Ellis being on the team. Ellis is capable of starting at PG should Lavine hang around but he should start at SG when the team is eventually rebalanced (PG/Ellis/Murray/PF/Domas). Out of everyone on the team, LaVine is still the most unlikely to be traded due to his contract.
Domas – It’s a downgrade in several ways, but the presence of JV on the roster gives Perry an option to go with entirely different pieces. If Domas stays, the team should be built around him (at least mildly) with an him operating as the hub of the offense (not so much the #1 or even #2 scoring option, but the offensive hub for screens and DHOs). But let’s just say Perry finds a deal for someone that would considerably diminish what Domas does (like Zion) or somehow requires Domas as part of the package, then he still has JV as a temporary backup plan.
Now, the above ONLY takes into account whether or not there is someone available on the roster who should be capable of filling in for a while or permanently; it says nothing of what a trade might look like or whether anyone would even realistically want these guys.
IMO the 3 players I would considered in a trade are Sabonis, Monk and DDR. I have considered this for quite some time looking at fit and a lot of what Scott and Doug want if their is a rebuild.
First I would trade Sabonis and Devin Carter to the Nets for Claxton, Johnson and Williams. Claxton isn’t an offensive player like Sabonis but is a better defender. Only 25 and can rim run, rebound and defend. With Claxton Scott and Doug would change the offense somewhat. We have now so many shooters we would need defense more than offense at the center position.
Second I would trade Malik Monk to the Rockets for Jabari Smith and Cam Whitmore. Monk compared to Brooks is much better and could start at the 2 or be their 6th man. Smith needs more playing time and experience to improve. At 6’11” he could play next to Claxton. Cam Whitmore is a good player with all the attributes Scott and Doug want but he needs a chance. Doesn’t get it with the Rockets.
Third and probably the one the Kings need to move the most is DDR. I would trade him with 1 or 2 seconds to the Pacers for Andrew Nembhard and Jarance Walker. The Pacers don’t really need him but would be a great fit for the Kings at point guard. Walker is an up and coming big who again has a lot of potential but needs to play more.
There you have it.
PS Since I traded Carter I believe Fultz can handle the backup point guard position. And I would bring up Mason Jones to help out both at point and shooting guard. I to believe after this summer and training camp Issac Jones will have really improved
Keegan needs to the demand the damn ball. And have an absolute fit when he doesn’t get it. He’s too good to not get 15-20 shots a game.
DDR definitely has to go. Possibly Monk as well. I love Monk. Watched him become the talk of AR all the way to KY. But if it takes moving him and DDR to get a PG and/or a real PF, then so be it.
I was a fan of Keegan coming out of college, but after watching him for the last several years, I’m over it. I think making your teammates better is imperative at all 5 spots, and he does not. He’s incredibly inconsistent, more than half the games his stat line is a ghost town. He will have many games with almost no assists…. He’s too soft to get solid rebounds and his defense is overrated. I watch the games, and I watch him get beat. People will be horrified but I don’t see him much different than Jason Thompson or Donte Greene. I’d rather not have any soft, inconsistent players. The whole team needs a reset. Boy I miss Halliburton.
That goes against everything that the numbers show. Did you read what Blake wrote?
Yeah. I don’t get it either. Even good to great defenders get beat (J-Will crossing up Gary Payton comes to mind). Keegan isn’t perfect, but the dude is damn good and has usually has 4 below average defenders on the court with him.
Rebounding is actually one of his strengths, imo. Dramatically improved every season.
Keegan has been doing what he was asked/directed to do. I’m sure he didn’t choose a reduced offensive role. The brain trust (Vivek) that decided to trade for and start a couple of iso players (chuckers) decided that. I think he has basically been played out of position the last two seasons and if he goes back to starting at the 3 everything will be just fine.
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