Articles | Free Agency

How Much Will It Cost To Re-Sign Bogdan Bogdanovic?

ESPN's Bobby Marks released salary projections for the best available 2020 NBA free agents.

One of the first major decisions new Sacramento Kings general manager Monte McNair will have to make in the offseason is the future of starting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic. Bogdanovic will be a restricted free agent when the 2020 offseason officially begins, and while the regime that brought him to Sacramento is no longer here, Luke Walton is, and Bogi was a key member of his rotation last season.

Due to Bogdanovic's restricted status, McNair and the Kings will be able to keep the Serbian guard in Sacramento long-term if they choose to do so, but at what cost?

ESPN's cap guru and former assistant general manager for the Brooklyn Nets, Bobby Marks, released salary projections for all the top free agents this summer. Bogdanovic is one of those top free agents. Marks categorized Bogdanovic as a "top starter" with a projected salary starting at $14-$16 million per year. This is far from groundbreaking considering it falls in line with what most would have projected for Bogdanovic, but hearing it from someone in-the-know with a national approach carries a little more weight.

I found some of the other names in that $14-$16 million window more interesting than the Bogdanovic projection by itself as it provides some additional context for how a national analyst values Bogi in relation to some of his peers.

Free agents in Bobby Marks' $14-$16 million salary window:

Goran Dragic
Evan Fournier
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Joe Harris
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Malik Beasley
Danilo Gallinari
Davis Bertans
Jerami Grant

I'm sure I have some deep rooted Bogdanovic bias in here somewhere, but there are certainly a few players on Marks' list that I wouldn't put in Bogi's league as a basketball player.

ESPN Senior Writer Kevin Pelton provided some projections of his own regarding the 2020 free agent class by ranking the top-25. Bogdanovic came in 6th on Pelton's rankings behind Anthony Davis, Fred VanVleet, Christian Wood, Brandon Ingram, and Davis Bertans.

For the Kings and Bogdanovic, the $14-$16 million window makes a lot of sense for both sides. But if Sacramento can retain Bogdanovic on the low end of that projection, I'd consider it a pretty significant win for Monte McNair. $14 million for Bogdanovic feels like a bargain in light of some of the contracts Vlade Divac handed out during his tenure, and in this instance the Kings could seriously benefit from the lack of competing teams with enough cap room to make a real run at Bogdanovic in free agency.

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RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 11:16 am

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Klam
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October 26, 2020 11:18 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Who’s the unicorn? Harry Giles?

Last edited 2 years ago by Klam
Bryant
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October 26, 2020 11:20 am

I would take Bogi at that salary cost over any of the others in Mark’s list.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 11:27 am
Reply to  Bryant

For THIS team with it’s specific needs, I agree.

Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
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October 26, 2020 11:30 am

I agree with your agreement.

RikSmits
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October 26, 2020 11:56 am
Reply to  Bryant

I’d take Galinaro, just to read Carl’s daily posts about his impending injury disasters.

ImJoeKing
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October 26, 2020 7:42 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I’d take Gallo cause I think he’s a better player. Teams do well when he plays for them.

Inthestarz
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October 26, 2020 11:29 am

Putting aside the fact that if he’s in a Kings uniform next year it’s likely either the team isn’t rebuilding, or pissing off a better player (Buddy 20/5/3, elite clips, work ethic/heart to hopefully improve defensive technique), if they don’t start both together at the 2/3. I think those numbers are before factoring in how the cap can change due to the adverse financial effects the league may experience.

Im interested to see the financial landscape this summer. If the team isn’t rebuilding in the coming years to get better core talent for some reason, I’d splurge the extra 10 mil and get the much better Van Vleet

RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 11:44 am
Reply to  Inthestarz

While not being on the give Buddy away bandwagon, if having better teammates pisses you off as a player, then you need to go.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 11:45 am
Reply to  Inthestarz

Retaining Bogdan could very easily be part of a rebuilding strategy. A good rebuilding strategy takes more than a single offseason to play out.

I also don’t see Van Vleet joining the Kings for anything less than an enormous overpay. In fact, I’m not sure even a max contract is likely to get him to sign an offer from the Kings.

TheEffortPolice
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October 26, 2020 3:32 pm

How?

The whole purpose of rebuilding is lost when these players A. Age, B. Cash out big contacts and C. Their team makes little tangible progress.

Let’s face it. Vlade blew it. These guys are talented enough to make you an 11th seed, while in no way would be taken seriously as a strong playoff core.

There is no scenario where Buddy and Barnes are a bad fit for rebuilding where Bogi would be beneficial. Bogi is neither more talented nor will be making less to the point it actually matters.

Treadmill team.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 3:46 pm

Retaining Bogdan this offseason could be part of a rebuild in a way that has been mentioned multiple times. By taking advantage of his potentially COVID/cap depressed market to sign him to a deal that will potentially look like a highly team-friendly deal in a post-COVID, re-expanded cap world. Just because they retain him this offseason doesn’t mean he has to stay on the roster for the length of his new contract. It’s all about value contracts. The confluence of COVID with Bogdan’s RFA status could very easily lead to a case of locking him in to a team-friendly deal that wouldn’t have been a possibility a year ago or a year from now.

Again, a good rebuild will include strategies that extend well beyond this offseason. Buddy and Barnes are a bad fit because we paid over market for them. Potentially paying under non-COVID market makes the asset math very different.

Last edited 2 years ago by BestHyperboleEver
wilbur10
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October 26, 2020 12:46 pm
Reply to  Inthestarz

You can’t start Buddy and Bogi at the 2/3. They both don’t provide much defense as is, let alone one of them having to guard even bigger and more athletic guys at the 3.

markdog333
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October 27, 2020 9:49 am
Reply to  wilbur10

You could probably get away with it for 30 minutes a night against most teams right now assuming that it works offensively.

Sacto_J
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October 27, 2020 8:45 am
Reply to  Inthestarz

I love the part where you mention Buddy’s work ethic and heart, both of which are on full display every time he disses the city and organization he’s a part of whenever a mic is shoved in front of his face.
Yeah, I’d hate to piss that guy off.

wilbur10
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October 26, 2020 11:42 am

What would people think of a S&T for Hardaway? Buddy for Hardaway straight up. Watching Buddy ball out alongside Doncic would haunt Kings fans for years but Hardaway can do more off the dribble than Buddy can which seems to fit what Walton wants out of that off guard spot.

RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 11:50 am
Reply to  wilbur10

I’d want Dallas’ 18th pick to go with it, and I’d be willing to send back the 43. Hardaway has one year back on a $19m contract, so he’s basically an expiring.

I’d consider Hardaway and Finney Smith, who has two years at $4m per left on his deal and Dallas’ ’21 1st round pick, for Hield & this year’s 43..

Last edited 2 years ago by RobHessing
wilbur10
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October 26, 2020 12:44 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Is Hardaway not a free agent? Does he have a player option or something?

RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 12:50 pm
Reply to  wilbur10

He has a $19m player option this season.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 11:51 am
Reply to  wilbur10

I have zero interest in Hardaway. I don’t want to be the poor team that buys into his Doncic-enhanced performance just to watch him fade back to his non-Doncic-aided self.

RikSmits
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October 26, 2020 11:54 am

But, but we have Fox! Right?

wilbur10
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October 26, 2020 12:45 pm

Yeah I think a lot of his success is a product of Doncic and that system, but I’m not sure how much we can get for Buddy if McNair does decide to move him.

cunimus
October 26, 2020 4:50 pm
Reply to  wilbur10

Why would Dallas do this? They’d be locking into a player for 3 years beyond 2020-21 season. This would also eat into their salary cap next year. I think we’d have to give them draft capital to get them to take Hield’s contract.

wilbur10
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October 27, 2020 3:52 pm
Reply to  cunimus

Not super confident Dallas would do this but Buddy when used correctly is probably a top 3 shooter in the game.

Wonderchild
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October 26, 2020 12:46 pm

I wonder what both sides would think to a shorter contract, like a 2 year deal with a 3rd year PO for Bogdan. For the Kings it gives them flexibility, and for Bogdan it gives him another chance at a big payday a couple years down the road when he’s still in his theoretical peak.

ImJoeKing
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October 26, 2020 9:09 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

Interesting premise. Bogi might want to take a gamble and time free agency when there’s less financial uncertainty and more cap space. I don’t think he’d want to wait that long for the payday though, maybe more like a 1+1 around $18M/yr.

Does either scenario benefit the Kings much? Is that contract a more valuable asset? Probably not.

Wonderchild
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October 27, 2020 8:55 am
Reply to  ImJoeKing

Bogi is an RFA after all, so neither player or team has full control over this. I just don’t see how a 4 year deal benefits either side right now, unless the Kings have already chosen Bogi over Hield.

AirmaxPG
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October 26, 2020 1:46 pm

It would be interesting to know whether Bogdan really wants to come back here next year. He seems like a good dude, and he’s not going to be outspoken about it… but if anyone here was in his shoes, would you want to play for this org?

The Kings can match any offer, but I wonder if he would politely tell them that he would rather be on a team that is going to contend. It’s gotta be frustrating to see guys he has competed with in Europe (Jokic, Kristaps, Luka) are making progress with their team, while he’s 28 and his team is going backwards.

rff
rff
October 26, 2020 2:00 pm

All of you will rue the day you doubted Walton and Bagley. Luke will one day be coach of the year, it may not be in Sacramento but it will happen. Those that are still upset that the Kings didn’t take Luka, mark my words, we have seen the best of Luka. Teams will d him up next year and his numbers will drop, he’ll be just another good player. Bagley is a stud, will be a perennial all-star and when his career is over he’ll be headed to the Hall of Fame. When Luka’s career is over he’ll be headed back to Slovenia. Over the next couple of years it will be proven Luka’s a generational talent only because the media hyped him to be.

RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 2:08 pm
Reply to  rff

“…and ‘send’…”comment image

Last edited 2 years ago by RobHessing
Greg
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October 26, 2020 2:21 pm
Reply to  rff

I like that the central premise of your Luka argument is that teams didn’t think to defend him this season.

rff
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October 26, 2020 2:46 pm
Reply to  Greg

1-2-1-1 zone press or a box and one will stop Luka. Bagley on the other hand, will destroy any defense used against him.

Greg
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October 26, 2020 3:17 pm
Reply to  rff

I love that your central premise relies on the idea that no team considered running a box and one or a simple zone at him.

markdog333
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October 27, 2020 9:55 am
Reply to  Greg

It is times like this when I really appreciate your profile picture.

kfipp
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October 26, 2020 3:25 pm
Reply to  rff

I like Bagley and I’m no expert but I feel like defenses could try the ol “make him try to do anything with his right hand” defense.

RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 3:27 pm
Reply to  kfipp

“Plain clothes technique. When seated on bench, no one can defend.”
comment image

Klam
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October 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Reply to  rff

How can Bagley destroy defenses used against him if he’s not on the floor? 😉

rff
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October 26, 2020 3:47 pm
Reply to  Klam

His foot problems will heal, and he will become an absolute nightmare for the opposing teams. TNT, NBA TV, and ABC will have to Kings on at least 3 times a week just to see Bagley.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 3:58 pm
Reply to  rff

Whereas, at the moment, he’s only a nightmare for the Kings.

9sac8
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October 27, 2020 3:35 am
Reply to  rff

Bro you got some 🔥 🔥 🔥 🔥 with you.
None of this will happen.

I will happily eat crow if you are right though. GOD, I hope you’re right.

Last edited 2 years ago by 9sac8
BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 3:57 pm
Reply to  rff

All you’re doing is changing his line from 30/7/9 to 24/7/15.

As for Bagley, well, let’s start with being a net-positive on the floor. Then we’ll worry about destroying defenses.

rff
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October 26, 2020 4:11 pm

Had Bagley not been injured (no fault on his own) he would be and up and coming star. He can be a top 10 scorer and rebounder and will prove that when he gets healthy.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 4:51 pm
Reply to  rff

I hope you’re right. I mean, it’s just a random prediction with no actual analysis or support to back it up, so there’s really nothing to discuss. I think it’s fair to say everybody here hopes your prognostication comes true.

RikSmits
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October 26, 2020 11:44 pm
Reply to  rff

Are you Father Bagley II?

rff
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October 27, 2020 12:33 am
Reply to  RikSmits

No. Just trying to understand why many of the posters on this blog want the kid to fail. Talking of trading him before giving him to chance to develop is puzzling.

Hobby916
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October 27, 2020 5:31 am
Reply to  rff

Pointing out that he has not been very good in his short time in the league is not the same as wanting him to fail. The consensus that I have seen on this site is that for the Kings to get out of this 14+ year hole is to have Bagley be a star. He just has not shown enough on the court to garner much hope of that happening.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 27, 2020 8:03 am
Reply to  rff

What in your comments could possibly be interpreted as “trying to understand why many of the poster on this blog want the kid to fail?”

A. If you’re “trying to understand” something, you ask questions and engage in discussion. You don’t just throw out some hyperbolic wishcasting. And you don’t take the classic message board cheap, easy, anti-intellectual way out when challenged by calling everybody haterz.

B. Literally zero people here want him to fail. Discussing his strengths and weaknesses and using the data we DO have to try to assess his potential and value isn’t wanting him to fail. It’s enjoying discussing the NBA at a deeper level than just waving a giant purple foam finger.

C. The Kings are a building team. Every single player’s value as an asset (either in a trade or on the roster), along with predictions of their future value, should be constantly assessed. Giving Bagley “a chance to develop” could result in a huge success story ala Booker or it could just mean finding ourselves in another McLemore, WCS situation where we wait so long for “development” that we miss out on maximizing their value.

markdog333
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October 27, 2020 10:40 am

I think I agree with option ‘C’ in principle although in practice, it seems like those kinds of trades are usually one underperforming young player for another under performing young player. If that were the case, I would probably still go with the higher ceiling player than the higher floor player. Especially so with a case like Bagley where his biggest issue has been availability.

With McLemore and WCS, I am sure their return after 2 years would have been an equally uninspiring as their shortcomings were all full display for everyone to see.
I think I agree with option ‘C’ in principle although in practice, it seems like those kinds of trades are usually one underperforming young player for another under performing young player. If that were the case, I would probably still go with the higher ceiling player than the higher floor player. Especially so with a case like Bagley where his biggest issue has been availability.

With McLemore and WCS, I am sure their return after 2 years would have been an equally uninspiring asset since their shortcomings were all full display for everyone to see.

Last edited 2 years ago by markdog333
BestHyperboleEver
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October 27, 2020 11:38 am
Reply to  markdog333

I’d have to know who the other player is to know if I agree that Bagley is the higher ceiling player.

rff
rff
October 27, 2020 12:18 pm

I didn’t mean to get anyone riled up. I really didn’t. I apologize for not being as analytical as you guys are when it comes to roster moves, proposed trades, etc. I applaud you guys for that and enjoy reading the different scenario’s. I guess what I was trying to say is Bagley was projected to be a star coming out of college, even if Vlade had not selected him second. He’s been injured and from the little bit I have seen from him (I’m not very analytical) he has skills that can be built upon. It would surprise me at this time. if McNair traded the number 2 pick without giving him the chance to become the star he was projected to be.

Sacto_J
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October 27, 2020 9:38 am
Reply to  rff

I wouldn’t say anyone wants him to fail but I’d suggest that, after 2 seasons spent dealing with some lingering injuries, he is so far failing as an NBA player. I’d also suggest that if, after another 2 seasons, he can’t string together 80+ games in an actual uniform contributing to the putting of round ball into tall basket, he will have been the Kings biggest bust to date.

L-Train3.1
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October 30, 2020 7:22 pm
Reply to  rff

Trade him?! I would drive him to the airport. At this point I would rather cut him than extend him.

Marty
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October 27, 2020 12:06 am
Reply to  rff

Put the phone down Grant.

Klam
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October 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Reply to  rff

comment image

ScottyPop
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October 26, 2020 5:49 pm
Reply to  rff

Forgot the sarcasm font?

CoreyBrewersD
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October 27, 2020 10:11 pm
Reply to  ScottyPop

Sure of sarcasm,
I was enjoying a laugh,
No one was laughing.

Last edited 2 years ago by CoreyBrewersD
SelecaoKOJ
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October 26, 2020 2:30 pm

So let me get this right. Some of you talk of rebuilding. Rebuilding with 2 SG’s that are 28 years old? Paying both of them a combined 35mil? Neither being a core piece on a contending team? Call me confused. , I don’t believe there is a correlate between Hield/Bogi’s timeline and this team getting back to the playoffs in the next 2 years in the West. Trade Hield and do a sign and trade with Bogi. In other words, blow it up. There is zero sense in running with this current line up. Looking at next season, the Kings are no better than 10th in the West and possibly worse. Especially, If the Pels, Suns, and Grizz continue an upward trajectory.

Last edited 2 years ago by SelecaoKOJ
BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 3:59 pm
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

As I mention above, €œblowing it up€ effectively doesn’t necessarily happen entirely in a single offseason.

RobHessing
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October 26, 2020 4:16 pm

Yep. This is where Fox’s long-term future with the Kings comes into question. Can you see this team as a playoff contender in the West next season? The season after that? Can the organization become playoff relevant before he demands out? How many seasons of suckitude will a young player willfully endure, and how many before he’s pretty much broken?

There’s no silver bullet or singular move to improve this team now. That ship sailed to Dallas. A slower rebuild (or at the very least, re-tool) looms on the horizon.

Greg
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October 26, 2020 4:26 pm

Exactly. Sometimes the move you make now isn’t about the result this season. Keep Bogi and then maybe this season you can flip him to a team that needs that kind of player but wouldn’t have the cap space to get him the summer. Or keep Bogi and flip Buddy at some point.

The hard part for us as fans is going to be evaluating moves over the next season. We’re going to be grading checkers and hoping the front office is playing chess.

ImJoeKing
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October 26, 2020 7:34 pm
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

Blowing up a roster for pennies on the dollar isn’t necessarily the best rebuilding strategy.

I’d argue the key to a rebuild is getting maximum return on the assets you currently have, ideally in exchange for younger high-upside unproven players or draft picks that win-now teams are more willing to part with. Draft position should also be considered, but with the flatter odds a top pick is still not a guarantee for terrible team.

I don’t think anybody is arguing that we should run back the same roster and same coach and hope we make the playoffs. The question of Bogi’s value is about whether we can re-sign him to a contract that still holds positive trade value so that we could get something back for it later if there’s no takers now. Not re-signing him means you lose him for nothing.

And it’s easy to say sign and trade Bogi, but there needs to be a team on the other end of that deal? Is there a team with cap space willing to part with a draft pick for the right to pay Bogi $15m/yr? Will that change at the trade deadline? Next year? Would you be happy with a late 2nd rounder to jump start that rebuild?

Otis
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October 28, 2020 6:41 am
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

Rebuilding doesn’t include letting assets walk when you could sign them for fair market value or better.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 26, 2020 9:22 pm

You know, the possibility we haven’t discussed is Bogdan just taking the QO. I don’t necessarily think it’s the most likely outcome, but I can see the rationale.

Last edited 2 years ago by BestHyperboleEver
Moreilly8
October 27, 2020 3:56 am

For me the two bold moves advance the Kings this season are A) trading Buddy for Hawks’ or Pistons’ 6th or 7th pick and B) drafting Vassell.
This assumes Vassell will contribute from the git go.

BestHyperboleEver
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October 27, 2020 8:03 am
Reply to  Moreilly8

More and more mocks have Vassell falling to 12. If you want him, you may not have to move up to get him.

Kingsguru21
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October 27, 2020 7:05 pm

Believe it when I see it.

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