Chainmail: Answering your questions about the Sacramento Kings

Welcome back to Chainmail! This week, we discussed the biggest disappointments in Kings history, Marvin Bagley’s trade value, Bogi versus Buddy, and much, much more. Let’s hop right in!

From RORDOG: What’s your Mt Kangzmore of €œthe one that got away€. It can’t be like not drafting Kawhi because I don’t believe the Kings ever showed public interest in drafting him. It can include players that were traded away that became stars elsewhere. Gerald Wallace can be a candidate since the Kings had the power to keep him. I guess you can throw in players who’s career was cut short due to injury as well. Fired coaches/GMs can be included if you’re into that sort of thing.

Tim: Thank you for ruining my day, RORDOG. I’m going to put a little caveat on this exercise and only change the history of specific choices by the Kings. For example, I would love to go back and not hire Vlade Divac as the General Manager, but there wasn’t another candidate who was a clear option. I’m also going to keep this relatively recent to limit the number of choices in front of me. Let’s rip out all of our hearts and stomp on them, shall we?

My first candidate is Luka Doncic. Assuming that he stays healthy, Luka will be a double-digit All-Star, a double-digit All-NBA player, and almost certainly a Hall of Famer if he continues on his current trajectory. He’s that good. I’m not going to go any further into his selection because the wound is still raw for just about everyone. And please, please, please, please don’t try to sell me on Marvin Bagley being the better choice. It was never the case, nor will it ever be.

My second choice is Damian Lillard. While I agree that many of the potential stars that the Kings missed on wouldn’t have developed into the players they are now because of this organization’s constant dysfunction, Dame is one of those guys that has the attitude to get it done wherever he goes. We’ve seen a few guys with a fiery attitude make something out of their career after being drafted into basketball hell, namely Boogie and Isaiah Thomas, and Lillard seems to be cut from the same cloth. A Boogie-Lillard pairing would have been a joy to watch and the start of a potential playoff team.

Preventing Pete D’Alessandro from firing Mike Malone would be third on my list. Malone was the one coach who ever seemed to truly reach DeMarcus Cousins, to the extent that anyone can reach DeMarcus Cousins, and the Kings truly had something building with that core of Thomas, Gay, and Cousins. In the 60+ games in which those three played together, Sacramento posted a .500 record. That rosters was never winning a championship together, but a playoff run was possible, and the Kings could have potentially attracted more talent to build around Cousins. Instead, we were left with *waves hand around* this.

Finally, I would reverse the Isaiah Thomas trade: another D’Alessandro blunder. It’s not just that the Kings traded away a future All-Star who averaged 29 points and 6 assists on a playoff contender just three seasons later; it’s that they dealt him away for quite literally nothing. Just a year later, the Phoenix Suns flipped him for Marcus Thornton and a first round pick. (This is completely irrelevant, but the Kings sent Thornton to Brooklyn in 2014. The Nets sent Thornton and a 2016 first round pick to Boston later that year. Then the Celtics sent Thornton and that same first rounder to Phoenix for Isaiah Thomas, and one year later the Suns sent that pick to the Kings as a part of the Bogdanovic-Chriss draft night transaction. It’s a small world after all.) If the Kings had kept Thomas, they either would have had a high-caliber guard to pair with Boogie and Gay, or they could have extracted some decent value out of his level of play and contract.

Will: Honestly the first two that came to my head were Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in back to back draft falling into the Kings laps and then getting brushed away like crumbs for two guys who didn’t work out for the Kings and were already dropping from their Top Two pick status. I understand why the Kings did it, but man, to screw up and have the exact same situation unfold the next year only to screw it up again – rough.

I’d also like to throw former future GM hopeful Shareef Abdur-Raheem in the mix. Now President of the G-League, Abdur-Raheem was once the Kings Director of Player Personnel and later General Manager of the Reno Bighorns. Sacramento had a rising star in their ranks that actually had interest in their management and they ran him out of town after a spat of arguing with Pete D’Alessandro. Imagine a scenario where Reef was the final decision-maker and Vlade was something more akin to Director of Player Personnel, still able to influence the players only now unable to actual pick them. You’d still have the culture the Kings desperately want and a more stable management to boot.

My last choice is Luka Doncic. I will not be discussing that one any goddamn further.

From HonKongKingsFan: What would be the most reasonable/probable return if we are going to trade Bagley this offseason?

Tim: If the Kings were to put Marvin Bagley on the trade block without attaching him to any other players or assets, the return on that deal would be incredibly low. For example, I don’t believe the Chicago Bulls would give up Lauri Markkanen, another player who has struggled with injuries early in his career, nor do I think the New York Knicks would surrender a player like Mitchell Robinson. At best, the front office could probably get a late lottery selection in exchange for the former second overall pick, and that sort of compensation just isn’t attractive enough, especially in such a weak draft class. Unfortunately for the Kings, their best hope in garnering value from Bagley is to hope that he gets healthy, stays healthy, and becomes a positive impact on the court. A trade isn’t going to get it done.

Will: Tim’s pretty spot on with this one. With the hype around Luka, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr. actually being realized this early in their own careers, I might go so far as to say that at this point in Marvin’s, he’s probably even a little underrated by fans and GM’s around the league. Now that’s not to say it isn’t for good reason, but, he certainly wouldn’t be bringing back anything of value past a protected future first. The Kings aren’t going to shoot themselves in the foot and trade him for a pick that might turn out to be someone with as much raw talent as Bagley has, so sitting and waiting for him to be healthy enough to prove one side wrong or right is the only move there is right now.

From MichaelMack: Do you have concerns about overvaluing Bogdanovic, especially in regarding to his efficacy regarding Buddy? He is a decent three point shooter, but not a marksman, he is at 36% for the last two seasons, and 37% for his career. Their turnover percent is very similar, despite his reputation for a superior IQ and lower usage rate.

Tim: It all depends on your definition of “overvaluing”. If we’re speaking purely in terms of his upcoming contract, I may have had those concerns when he was going to potentially be offered a deal at $20 million per season, but that seems unlikely to happen now that the cap has collapsed and teams are most likely going to be tight with their cash in this upcoming offseason. As far as on-court value is concerned, I think Buddy Hield is a better and more valuable player to the current roster, as he raises the floor of the team, while Bogdanovic is much easier to play alongside and would be much better in a role that enhanced stars around him. Either guy would be great to have as a complimentary player around two or three stars, but the Kings don’t have those top end players yet.

Will: I think the Kings have been a talent drain since 2007 and have let go of more than a few good players and staff for small differences in pay or ideas etc. and at this point they’ve let it go on for so long that I’m actually surprised that they’d be willing to give Bogi what he’s worth on the open market. Is he a bit overvalued? Yes, but not in a way that I worry about too much. Both he and Buddy are elite role players in this league and even with their reported contracts should hold some positive value going forward, save for a career-altering injury. Whether Bogi ends up being a sixth man on a fringe playoff team or a big piece in a trade that nets a superior option, he’s going to be a solid reason for any Kings successes.

From Klam: Which Kings players/staff have you met or seen in person?

Tim: When I was about 10 years old, I stood in line at the opening of a CarMax for about three hours in order to get Vlade Divac’s signature. Other than that, I’ve only met Grant and Jerry, as living out of state for the majority of my life hasn’t presented much opportunity to meet players.

Will: I’ve had run-ins with quite a few over the years. Meeting Harry Giles in Vegas at the airport before Summer League was memorable solely off of the back of how humble and kind he was. Gary Gerould stopped to talk at the California State Fair a few years back and was a joy to talk to. Jerry Reynolds stepped on my shoe during one of the final games at Arco Arena and had me laughing and apologizing by the end. My favorite though was Isaiah Thomas. Donte Green threw his game shoes out after the Goon Squad Classic in Davis during the last lockout year, and I survived all manner of pass interference to go up and come down with it. I ended up getting Jimmer, DeMarcus Cousins and Tyler Honeycutt to sign it, but I really wanted IT’s to complete it. Flash forward to Isaiah asking for a place to practice and me and some friends convincing him to play at The Well on Sac State’s campus. He rolled up and we guest passed him and his friends into the gym and right as we were going to play, I got a call from my on-campus job saying I had to be in to fill a shift ASAP. I tried to explain, but no dice. (They paid my tuition and housing so, really couldn’t tell them to shove it.) Isaiah actually asked if I was still planning on playing and when I said no, he joked about calling them back and letting him talk to them. When I asked him to sign the shoe, he recognized it as Donte’s from a few nights before and him and his buddies said started laughing, saying they remembered seeing some guy absolutely sky for the sneaker and then just disappear into a moshpit of people trying to pry it away. He joked about checking me for bruises and cuts, signed it, we took pictures and I went back to work while all my friends got to actually shoot around with him. IT earned himself a fan for life for that one.

From Kosta: In Will’s photo illustration, Tim is obviously the giraffe and Will is presumably the orangutan. Who is the bird?

Tim: I assume it’s a female bird. A lady bird, maybe?

Will: Please do not make me photoshop a penis onto that bird.

From SniperKing: How would Kings fans feel about the hiring of Sam Hinkie for GM and a lighter version of “Trust the Process” west coast edition?

Tim: Every time we theorize a move from the Kings, we have to consider it on multiple levels. For example, Sam Hinkie wouldn’t be my absolute first choice for a new General Manager (Troy Weaver or Shareef Abdur-Rahim would take that spot), but I also know that Hinkie would be a hell of a lot more qualified than Vlade Divac and his way of speaking and philosophizing would probably strike a chord with Vivek Ranadive. I also don’t think Hinkie’s only strategy in his playbook is trade, tank, and draft. That was the best plan for his situation in Philadelphia, but it may not be the same in Sacramento. The biggest issue in a Hinkie hire is his struggle to work well with others (similar to Dave Joerger) and that he may or may not have been unofficially blacklisted by the league. Also, Divac and his crew aren’t going anywhere for at least a year, and with the recent financial impact of the league shutdown, ownership may be reluctant to pay double salaries for two front offices.

Will: I would love it. I think Hinkie is a talented enough mind to understand that The Process worked in that particular scenario and that something new and less extreme would be needed in Sacramento’s case. I remember early into the new ownership, Vivek and Co. bragging about the Kings having a secret sauce and finding diamonds in the rough and their being some discussion about the basketball version of Moneyball coming to Sacramento. Then every decision since that moment has been a dismantling of that notion. Kings have a tiny scouting department an analytics department that they routinely ignore and have gone against the grain multiple times only to show their asses instead of a successful draft. By now, it’s pretty much a joke that you find the player in the Kings range that went to a big school or was a March Madness tournament darling and you can pretty much predict the Kings draft. If you have any doubts on who it is, its the first guy that says he wants to be in Sacramento. Hinkie is a cold, uncaring calculator folded completely up his own ass, but it still gives him a better view of the room than 80% of the decision makers in Sacramento. Asset collection and optimization might be the Kings worst subject in their decade and a half long education at the NBA School of Hard Knocks and Sam Hinkie would immediately change that. I love a mad scientist and I’m willing to overlook the pompous Tony Stark wannabe ramblings and attitude if it nets the Kings similar results to what Philly has now.

From MichaelMack: What’s the plan for the front court? Is Holmes’ half-season his true measure? Should we start him next year and hope to retain him? Will Bjelly age well or should we use his expiring contract and value as a stretch-4 at the trade deadline? What about Bagley or Harry?

Tim: Holmes if for real. He’s a top 15-20 center in the league, plays solid defense, can run the pick-and-roll game, and doesn’t play outside of himself. His contract is a little bit of an issue, as the Kings don’t have any Bird Rights with the two-year deal that he signed, so they’ll almost certainly be limited to the mid-level exception, which should clock in around the $11 million per year mark next summer. If they want to use all of their over-the-cap free agent capability on Holmes, they could probably retain him. For Bjelica, he’s a quality role player that’s making very little money compared to his production. The Kings should absolutely guarantee his $7 million salary this offseason and potentially flip him at the trade deadline if the Kings are out of the playoff picture next year. Marvin Bagley is obviously the big question mark, as he’s the only long-term big man on the roster. If he can get healthy, he’s a key piece moving forward, and the front office will need to build their front court around maximizing Bagley’s skillset, which means Holmes probably isn’t the long-term solution. Management will need to find that partner in the draft or maybe through a trade. Finally, there’s Harry Giles. He may or may not be on the team next year, but I don’t see him turning into a starter in the league, and I’m not even sure he’ll ever be a rotation player with his size and rim protection issues. For now, the Kings can’t count on him being on the roster next year.

Will: I’d be willing to drop a little money that Richaun Holmes is gone by the end of his contract. As impressive as he’s been, some team will be willing to pay slightly over what the Kings will and the Kings will convince themselves that he was hogging time for Bagley and his amazing stint in Sacramento will be over. I’m all for playing Richaun Holmes as much as he can take and letting the chips fall where they may. Bjelica could get moved to a contender for a 1st rounder with protections, which I wouldn’t mind doing. As for Marvin, I think the Kings are willing to wait as long as needed for the chance to vindicate themselves with the Bagley pick. Remember, he’s not supporting cast, he was picked and hyped to be the lead role. The Kings will shuffle players around him for a few years to give him the chance to finally prove that he’s more of a Daniel Day Lewis than Mark Wahlberg.

From Kingsguru21: What influences encouraged you to have such horrible takes on food, Tim?

Tim: Raisins make almost every savory AND sweet dish better! Also, beer sucks.

Will: Please continue to pile on Tim here, but understand that we’ve gotten legitimate hate mail from fans listening to the Snackramento podcast for food takes that SOMEONE ELSE has had, as well… *cough* Richard *cough*