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Chainmail: Answering your questions about the Sacramento Kings

We discussed Monte McNair's potential staff, the possibility of trading Buddy Hield, potential head coaching replacements for Luke Walton, and much, much more!

Welcome back to Chainmail! Thank you everyone for all of your wonderful questions. We got to chat about potential Buddy Hield trades, Monte McNair's staff, future coaching candidates, Marvin Bagley's value, site feedback, and much, much more!

Before we get into your questions, we do want to thank our sponsor for the mailbag, Carter Imports! Carter Imports is a Sacramento-based company that imports some of the very best Extra Virgin Olive Oil and Cretan Thyme Honey available in the world today. There has never been a better time to support one of our own than right now!

Now, let's jump into some answers, shall we?

From 1951:

McNair likes Buddy. Buddy likes Philly. Does he stay or go?

Tim: If I was a betting man (which I'm not. I don't know how to do sports betting or play the lottery or any of that nonsense), I would put a lot of money on Buddy wearing another uniform next season. He was publicly unhappy during his contract negotiations, he was publicly unhappy throughout the season with the coaching staff, and he was publicly unhappy with his role and playing time at the end of the season. Buddy is not subtle, and if he isn't moved, I believe things will turn very ugly, very quickly.

From a best trade partner perspective, Philly kind of sucks. They only have terrible contracts and middling assets, other than Matisse Thybulle, who seems to valuable to swap for Buddy. The Sixers also might pursue much bigger fish than Hield, such as Chris Paul of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Will: I don't think there's going to be an off-season move that really fits for the Kings and a move for Buddy Hield. With our assumption that McNair took the job on the contingency that Luke Walton has to stick around for an indefinite amount of time, I think it'll go something like this: McNair attempt to fix the relationship between Buddy and Walton by impressing upon Walton that they need to pick up the pace and stop putting Buddy in low-efficiency situations and telling Buddy that if he's still unhappy, in time, he'll swap him to a new team. Around the All-Star Break,  Buddy's stock is reasonably higher than last season and a team at the deadline who really needs that shooting pays through the nose to get him. McNair is only going to get a three month window between now and the start of the season and I don't think that allows for enough time for him to negotiate all the way through and acceptable trade scenario. By waiting till the break, it puts pressure on teams that want Buddy to up their offers, especially if they're struggling around the break. It gives Buddy a chance to showcase, Walton more rope to hang himself. There will always be a need for Hield's services, and McNair knows the difference between being aggressive and rushing the job. Don't be surprised if Buddy starts next season with the Kings and finishes in the playoffs somewhere else.

From RikSmits:

What is Bagley's likely trade value at this moment? Is he healthy?

Tim: Marvin Bagley's trade value is low enough that moving on from him is all but impossible at this point. For example, if you called the New Orleans Pelicans and offered them Bagley for the 13th pick straight up, I think they turn you down. His potential is too important for this team to deal away for a non-lottery pick.

His health is a complete mystery to everyone. The team's announcements around his injuries have always been odd, and that level of oddity only increases depending on how much of a conspiracy theorist you are at any given moment. I can confidently say that no new injuries have been announced, and that's about it.

Will: Yeah, there is just no plausible deal that amounts to Marvin Bagley being traded right now. If I had to pin it? Maybe a low first rounder this year? Like Pick 29 and a future second rounder? The combination of his health and proximity to a new contract just really kills anything that gets close.

From SMF-PDXConnection

The 2021 season is over. McNair has been at the helm for one year. What would you call success? What would you call failure? What signs would give you hope? What signs would concern you?

Tim: The failure/concerns probably fall under the same category for me. I very much do not want to see the Kings make a desperate push for the 8th seed as they've been doing for the last few years. The roster isn't good enough to make it, nor are the team's assets of a high enough quality to be swapped for the kind of talent that will be needed to close that gap. Don't trade Buddy Hield for Tobias Harris or Kevin Love or Blake Griffin. Don't sacrifice picks for average to above-average veterans. If those are the kinds of moves Monte McNair is making, color me concerned.

Success will be dictate by individual moves and the results of those moves, not be a win-loss record. I want to see McNair cash out veterans (Hield, Bogdanovic, Bjelica, Holmes, etc.) for young contributors (Turner, Gordon, Ball, etc.) and/or draft picks or unproven young contributors. This team needs to reset around De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley. If McNair can start to build that core, I'll be very pleased, even if that means winning 25 games next year.

Will: The bar for success is pretty much laying on the ground right now. Reasonably, if McNair makes any sort of moves, doesn't get outright burnt in those moves and there's any individual improvement from De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, it's a successful season. Maybe not a massive coup and it certainly wouldn't leave me excited necessarily but "don't fuck it completely up" is the bar for success. What would give me actual hope is seeing some of our bigger contracts moved for young assets or draft picks, or at least converting them to players on big expiring deals for draft compensation. I would really like to see that average age drop and our core pieces to stay relatively healthy. For Fox and Bagley, that would be 70 games + of playing together. After the seasons done, hearing Walton is gone and seeing a list of young, intelligent coaches are being rumored for the job. That would give me that tingling feeling like the ship is finally turning around.

Next season is going to suck from a "watching basketball" perspective. The only ways to make it worse are for McNair to say Walton is going to coach out his contract, for McNair to really get swindled or for him to make an all out swing for a playoff spot by giving up picks. He would pretty much have to go against his word or show that he is really only a puppet for the ownership/advisors.

From MauricePWhipporwill:

Can you please decode all this €œflexibility€ talk? Is he signaling a holding pattern? Dumping vets for picks? Playing hardball with free agents?

Tim: Is it a copout to answer with "all of the above"? McNair comes from an organization that put itself into the right position to make a big move when it came along, the James Harden trade, and our new GM referenced getting this team into a similar place over the next few years. It's likely obvious to McNair that this roster isn't close to competitive, so getting into a place where the Kings have multiple options/assets is exactly the goal we should be seeking. That may include a holding pattern to let bad contracts diminish in their negativity dumping veterans for picks and young players, or moving assets like the 12th pick to further advance an agenda. Whatever happens, I expect McNair to be aggressive in his moves.

Will: I think this flexibility talk is all a matter letting fans know that that the Kings are open for business without tipping NBA GM's to the actual strategy by which he's going to go about approaching and turning around this team. He's used ambiguous language like "aggressive" and "flexible" so that fans have a general notion that he won't be asleep at the wheel and that behind the scenes he's working to get things done, but past that everything is on the table. Do I expect trades to be made? Yes. Will all veteran players be gone by the end of the season? Zero percent chance. Which players sent out and which positions filled will rely solely on the market demand for them and a market that fluctuates as often as the NBA requires openness to all ideas and opportunities.

From RORDOG

Who's the starting 5 you want for the Sacramento Kings to open the season? (I'd like this to be something that incorporates realistic targets for the draft, free agency, trades, etc.)

Tim: Alright, in my scenario we've traded Buddy Hield, Nemanja Bjelica, and the 35th pick for Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb. With the 12th pick in the draft, the Sacramento Kings selected Tyrese Maxey, who will come off the bench in his rookie year. Starting lineup: Fox-Bogdanovic-Barnes-Bagley-Turner.

Will: Starting Lineup: De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Patrick Williams, Marvin Bagley. In this scenario, the Kings sign-and-trade an already leaving Bogdanovic for a heavily protected future 1st and sent Richaun Holmes away on draft day with our two lower second rounders for the rights to Leandro Bolmaro and draft Cassius Stanley at #35. In the off-season, they find a way to resign Harry Giles and Alex Len, so the bench (at the start of this season) is Cory Joseph, Cassius Stanley, Leandro Bolmaro, Harry Giles and Alex Len.

It's tank time and McNair's Kings are going for some flashy upside!

From Jman1949

Within about two weeks of being hired by the Bulls, Karnisovas picked up his wing-man in Eversley. How long do you think McNair will take to hire his lead assistant? Are any names being mentioned to fill that spot, or is Peja irreplaceable?

Tim: It's entirely possible that McNair is looking at a candidate or two who is currently employed by a team still in the playoffs, so he may may take another few weeks to fully flush out his group of executives. Glancing through other team's front offices paints a picture of how large a competent staff can be, as well as how much of a skeleton crew Vlade Divac was running. The Kings need at least one more analytics professional, a day-to-day manager, someone in charge of player development, and likely one or two support people below them. If McNair is allowed to run things correctly, we're going to see multiple new names coming to Sacramento before the 2021 season begins.

Will: I think it's reasonable to assume that he'll name at least his second in command within the month and then build out from there. With limited time before the draft, I think the Kings are going to want to have the skeleton of their crew signed before then and while I don't hear any specific names yet, James Ham had said at one point there was talk around McNair picking a former player to be his second in command. If that's the case, then I would be all in on Shane Battier getting that job. Battier has spoken very highly of McNair in the past, and is currently holding down the position of Vice President of Basketball Development & Analytics for the Miami Heat, so he would be spot-on perfect for what the Kings would need. A highly respected former player with a reputation for defense and a mind for analytics who has been soaking up that ethereal, sought after "Heeeat Culture" for the last three years??? Thow the bag at him! I also wouldn't be surprised (and would be pretty pumped) to see Anthony McClish and Drake U'u both get roles within the organization.

From Kosta

Who do you think we could replace with Luke, or is it too early to tell? (i.e., we will have to see who is looking for a job when that time comes)

 

If that's too hard to answer, who do you think are the best coaches in the NBA? Maybe like a top 5, and what are your answers based on?

Tim: It's a little early to say who could replace Walton. We know he's going to be here to start the season, and even if he's fired at the All-Star break, the team won't look to add a permanent replacement until the 2021 offseason. I would like to see the Kings pursue an up-and-comer, similar to the McNair hire, rather than going with a known quantity. Becky Hammon, Ime Udoka, and Wes Unseld Jr. would all be fantastic candidates if they're available in the coming months.

My top-5 coaches in the NBA, in no particular order: Greg Popovich, Eric Spoelstra, Nick Nurse, Rick Carlisle, Brad Stevens.

Will: I think it's a bit too early to tell and am preparing myself to see Luke Walton on the sideline for the duration of next season. Anything less than that and I'm happy, but with money being what it is right now for NBA owners? That man is parked on the bench for 82-ish games. I'm all in favor of giving a coaching job to a first-timer under the conditions that they're forward thinking and have an understanding and appreciation for analytics. It makes no sense to have a 21st century mind leading a company that want to use typerwriters, so any of Becky Hammon, Ime Udoka or Wes Unseld would be fine. I'm also very impressed with Charles Lee, who is currently the lead assistant behind Mike Budenholzer for the last six years. Steve Hetzel, Will Hardy and Jahmal Mosely will all be names that should be brought into the conversation as well.

As for my top 5 coaches right now (in order): Spoelstra, Nurse, Popovich, Carlisle then Stevens. Really wanted to throw Quin Snyder in there as well but he's comfortably my #6.

From RORDOG

What happened to The Court Jester and Snackramento? I'm a pod guy, and I'm curious as to why this site is not into pods.

Tim: I wanted to include this question in the mailbag to be able to announce that RORDOG has been banned for questioning our decision-making. I kid! I kid!

First and foremost, thank you for the feedback, RORDOG. As a team transitioning from writing for a site to running a site, we're not always aware of the impact of certain decisions or what's a priority to everyone reading or subscribing to our venture here at The Kings Herald. Outside of this particular question, if anyone reading through the mailbag response has a question, comment, suggestion, or piece of feedback, please feel free to let us know in the comments below. If you're more comfortable doing that privately, you can always DM one of us on Twitter or shoot an email to [email protected] We seriously want and need your feedback, and we'll be introducing a more formal way of giving that to us shortly.

Okay, now to the question at hand. We have had some setbacks with both The Court Jester and Snackramento, and both are currently on (possibly permanent) hiatus, so we're looking into some pretty cool options for replacing those shows. As far as Sanjesh's and my new show, Watching the Tape, is concerned, Sanjesh was added to the Be Heard network, which was founded to give a platform to underutilized and minority voices, and he kindly asked me to join him as the co-host before launching the show. It was never a case of the folks here at the site not wanting us to do a podcast; they've all been super supportive of Sanjesh and tolerant of me. I relate it a little to Akis, Greg, and Rich writing for the Sacramento Bee - an opportunity to interact with Sacramento media members outside of the TKH bubble.

I don't want anyone to think that podcasts aren't important to the site. Rather, once we realized that The Court Jester and Snackramento may not be sustainable for a variety of reasons, we decided to take the proper amount of time and invest the proper amount of money to produce high-quality replacements for those shows, rather than throwing together a half-assed substitute that no one would enjoy. The options that we're looking into may include some live programming (let us know if that interests you or what that looks like in your perfect world), fan contributions, internal hosts, external hosts, and a few other exciting possibilities. While I can't guarantee an exact date as to when these things will happen, I'm confident that it'll be worth the wait.

Will: I can speak to this a little bit, as well. Snackramento was and is a product of love for Richard, Kevin and I, and we really truly wanted to highlight things during the pandemic that were going unnoticed: specifically how great my food choices are. Also, local food joints. We originally stopped around the same time as the pandemic turned from baking bread to large-scale protests across the country because we felt we couldn't in anyway pay respect to that movement, while also maintaining a tone that would be fun and interesting to listen to. Then some life happened and The Bubble happened and it just got away from us a bit. I'm not saying it won't come back, because I know Richard and Kevin both love learning new things about the culinary world from me and I love realizing that I'm a raging foodie psychopath in real time and for an audience. The world just had far more important things for us then the podcast and it continues to. As soon as there is a space where we can discuss our favorite foods and planes crashing into ice cream parlors again, I might expect some version of it to return. So, straighten up world. Our best-worst opinions haven't even been said yet.

That being said, The Kings Herald is still in its infancy as a website. We're constantly discussing changes and we've had plans that have yet to be spoken about to you all, but have been in development since before the site launched. This team of men and women are a creative, intelligent, wild bunch and I can't wait to look back five years from now and remember how quaint this period of the website was for all of us.

Keep asking these questions. Keep bringing suggestions to comments, or to Twitter or to our emails. We want to know what you want, how we can improve and what we're doing wrong. Right this very second, Bryant is locked in the TKH Recruiting Office pouring over tapes of Lamine Diane, just to write an article that amounts to "No." Why?
Because he hates Lamine Diane and he wants you to stop saying his name. (Just kidding). We aren't here without you all, so speak up when you've got questions. We might not have a definitive answer, but we will spend 7 paragraphs telling you that too.

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ArcoThunder
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September 28, 2020 8:53 am

Thanks for all that you guys do.

ArcoThunder
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September 28, 2020 9:10 am

Thoughts on your thoughts:

How much value does Marvin Bagley III have right now? A lot higher than Tim and Will think.

i think you have to look at it from the kings perspective but not with our disappointed fan goggles on (where’s Luca?!?!). To give definable €œvalue€ to MBIII in relationship to draft picks, I think it’s Very realistic as well as fair to say he’s worth a top 5 draft pick in this years or any future draft. His upside is still top 5 talent. His very small sample size is top 5 talent. There’s no way in hell the Kings trade MBIII for anything less than a top 5 pick right now. I think that’s fact. Therefore, his value is a top 5 draft pick. What other teams offer in attempts to trade for Bagley doesn’t equal his €œvalue€.

The # 10 pick + a young prospect or the #10 pick + an all star vet on a big contract is the value that likely equals MBIII as well.

The #6 pick in this years draft for Marvin Bagley III will never happen. The Kings would not do that. = his value is higher than that.

Last edited 2 years ago by ArcoThunder
WGriffith
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September 28, 2020 11:17 am
Reply to  ArcoThunder

In this case, I guess its a discussion of value vs. worth. If you were given a hot rod and Kelly Blue Book values the car at $100k, it might be valued at a $100k. But if no one is willing to buy it, if its known to breakdown and have constant maintenance issues and you get out from under it for $25k, it was only worth $25k to you.

Marvin’s talent might be Top 5 in this draft sure, but talent doesn’t show up in the box score, it doesn’t lace them up. If teams are uneasy about Marvin’s various injuries, it doesn’t matter what his value is, it’s what he’s worth to obtain. I think Tim and I are looking at what teams would be willing to give out for him.

Kosta
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September 28, 2020 12:07 pm
Reply to  WGriffith

“Hot Rod only drives left. Breaks down occasionally, but 2nd Jump-start was fast. As for Smog-test, not sure if it will pass. Paint job is kind of appealing. For long-distance excursions, there are better models in it’s class. “

Last edited 2 years ago by Kosta
RikSmits
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September 28, 2020 12:22 pm
Reply to  WGriffith

Well said.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 28, 2020 12:33 pm
Reply to  WGriffith

And this is to say nothing about the fact that he’s owed $20MM over the next to seasons and has already burnt two years of team control while mostly missing two years of development.

ArcoThunder
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September 28, 2020 2:33 pm
Reply to  WGriffith

First of all, I love the Kelly blue book reference.

I here that. I think the disappointment in MBIII is having too strong an affect on both your valuation of hm though. Bagley is still super young. His injuries have been pretty flooky and not recurring to the same body part. While Bagley has been arguably the most disappointing prospect from 2018 (an incredibly deep draft), his upside is still very high.

Every single team in the nba would trade pick 6 in this draft or the next Draft straight up for Bagley. Every single one. The risk reward in that deal is WAY WORTH IT for any other team. As frustrated as I am with MBIII, I think if we are being real, he’d be the consensus top pick in this draft. So… whatever his value is exactly, it’s relative to the people making the judgements obviously. I think our judgements are quite skewed when it comes to Bagley in particularly. €œThe Luca Law€ should not be applied here.

Last edited 2 years ago by ArcoThunder
BestHyperboleEver
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September 28, 2020 2:42 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I really don’t think any team in the NBA would trade a 2021 lottery pick for Bagley. I’m not sure many would trade a top 6 this year. I think you’re underestimating the impact of losing 2 years of apparent development and team control. Again, why wouldn’t a team in the top 6 just draft Toppin? They get more developed shooting and passing ability AND the full rookie contract. Or Wiseman, who gives you excellent athleticism with better size/length, more present rim protection and just as much shooting upside? Even if you think Bagley is a slightly better prospect, those 2-3 extra years of team-control, especially when it comes to players that need a lot of development, are HUGE.

Last edited 2 years ago by BestHyperboleEver
RikSmits
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September 28, 2020 12:21 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

He may be a top 5 talent, which probably tells you more about this draft class than about Bagley’s talent. Or both.

But it is not like talent is the main thing. His skills and potential are not very coveted in today’s NBA. Can he develop other, more essential skills? Perhaps, but not likely.

And that decreases his value significantly, IMO.

ArcoThunder
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September 28, 2020 2:49 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I think you’re incorrect. I believe you’re suffering from a severe case of €œLuca€ lesions.

MBIII skills and talent are undeniable. The upside is still huge. We don’t know how his skill set transfers yet and thats the point. That’s why his value is still very high. Not how our Luca lesions are making us feel. MBIII has speed, size, athleticism comparable to the elites, touch, ball handling, great rebounding and an impressive offensive game that could feasibly extend to the three point line.

his skills are coveted. Period. Is draymond greens skill set coveted? Is Kevin Loves? Jokic? The Greek Freak? Marvins ceiling is still in that good company. His foot injuries haven’t changed that. Is he even 21 yet? The guy has way more value than our disappointment in him shows.

WHICH IS A GOOD THING.

Last edited 2 years ago by ArcoThunder
BestHyperboleEver
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September 28, 2020 3:20 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

Literally all those guys you mentioned are elite passers for their position while Bagley has never shown any ability or desire to make anything beyond the absolutely most basic of passes. And that skill is exactly what makes every one of those guys special.

Amonk81
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September 28, 2020 6:22 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I believe the opposite is true. Bags can’t shoot, play D, pass, barely can go right, and rebounds(defensive) very average/inconsistent. (He is not a great rebounder).

Not about Lukaistus, just about how much Bags needs to improve just to be an ok starter. The odds are very slim he’ll improve enough, especially shooting and D or that he’ll be anything more than a stat stuffer. Not to mention the injuries.

Thanks Vlade.

cbrody
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September 28, 2020 9:44 pm
Reply to  Amonk81

“I believe the opposite is true. Bags can’t shoot, play D, pass, barely can go right, and rebounds(defensive) very average/inconsistent. (He is not a great rebounder).

To be fair we haven’t seen him try to play D or pass so I’ll reserve judgement. Hoping by year 10 we can make that evaluation.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 28, 2020 12:24 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder
  1. The question asked about his trade value. “Trade value” is literally what other teams would be willing to give up for him in a trade. It has nothing to do with how the Kings value him. Your Nana’s decorative
  2. 19-year-old Bagley is a top 5 talent in this draft. 21-year-old Bagley minus two years of development and two years of team control likely isn’t.
  3. I would argue that Bagley hasn’t performed as a top 5 talent in his draft when on the court. He certainly wouldn’t be top 5 in a re-draft.
  4. I’ll pose this question, Bagley is one year younger that Toppin. Topping has shown much more shooting and playmaking potential. Is there any real reason to think Bagley would be meaningfully more attractive than Toppin in this draft?
RikSmits
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September 28, 2020 1:17 pm

I wanted to make a is Toppin Topping Marvin?-comment but I was afraid people would be upset with me.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 28, 2020 1:54 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Bagley is more athletic laterally, but otherwise Toppin is basically what we hoped Bagley would develop into by now.

ArcoThunder
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September 28, 2020 3:17 pm

4.) yes, 100%

3.) I think he would be top 5 in a red draft. If you’re going off talent and upside, yes, 100%. If you’re going off numbers over two years then no obviously. That’s injuries fault. Pretty low key injuries have kept him out. MANY scouts had Marvin with the most upside over all players in that entire draft. That didn’t evaporate.

2.) acting like MBIII isn’t a top 5 pick in this draft at 21 is caused from Luca Lesions. He is. I don’t know how to convince you. Just look at the talent, the size and the skill with eyes that aren’t layered in extreme disappointment. The T Wolves could easily see a pairing of MBIII and KAT as unstoppable. It would be nasty. The warriors would take MBIII in a heart beat at #2. I have no doubt in that.

1.) my Nana is decorative? I mean she is, she likes little classic decor from the 60’s and 70’s and loves decorating for Christmas with an entire nativity scene. MBIII’s value is what you could get for him in an actual trade that happens. Not what another team wishes would happen. Both teams need to feel comfortable. That’s the players value. They’re valued between 2-30 parties. The valuation will differ from all 30 teams. If the kings don’t think the value is high enough then they won’t trade him. His value to the Kings is his value. His value to the kings is still a #2 pick in a very deep draft. His injuries and good play in short sample sizes has sustained that potential value for the Kings. If a team doesn’t agree with that valuation by the kings then they won’t get him in a trade. Much like I know we can’t trade buddy for Steph Curry straight up. Buddy is younger then Step and isn’t returning from another big injury, it’s a fair trade. Actually, no it’s not a fair trade. That’s an extreme and ridiculous example but I hope you get my point.

BBIQ4U
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September 28, 2020 4:08 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

Redraft 2018 and you get Luka, Ayton, Jaren Jackson, Michael Port Jr, Shae Gilgoues Alexander, Trae Young and maybe other people ahead of Bagley.

Amonk81
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September 28, 2020 6:28 pm
Reply to  BBIQ4U

Bags would be about 10. There were a couple te drafts and I don’t think he got above 8. Robinson w Knicks way better. Bridges. Sexton. Not to mention others in draft who will be and are better than Bags.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 29, 2020 8:01 am
Reply to  Amonk81

I think one could make a reasonable argument for anywhere between 6 and 12.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 28, 2020 4:10 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I mean, you can dismiss my points all you want, it doesn’t mean you’re right.

  1. Okay.
  2. There’s zero chance Bagley is taken over any of Doncic, Ayton, Young, JJJ, SGA, or Porter in a redraft. He’s a 6th pick in the absolute rosiest assessment.
  3. It would be difficult to find a worse match for KAT than Bagley. He literally doesn’t cover for any of KAT’s weaknesses. A guy like Okungwu is FAR better suited for that position considering his defensive versatility and strengths, and, again, they’d have his full rookie contract.
  4. I didn’t complete my thought about Nana. Regardless it just says just because someone has emotional value for you doesn’t mean other people will pay for that. And what others will pay sets their trade value by definition.
blknblu
September 29, 2020 8:31 am

The immaturity, lack of BBIQ, tunnel vision, and shot selection/lack of passing is pretty damning.

ArcoThunder
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September 28, 2020 9:17 am

For the record: I like Wills starting line up the best.

but, why can’t we just keep Bogi?

if buddy is gone I’d like to keep Bogi.

RAP87
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September 28, 2020 9:40 am
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I think it depends on the amount of dollars as well. If it’s well over $15 million per year then I’ll probably say no. Plus I think Bogi does not want to play for a team that is going to be on a rebuild once again. Having him on this team would probably cost us a few wins that would hurt our draft position.

Personally, I would love Mcnair to get rid of Buddy, Bogi, Bjelly and Holmes in exchange for picks and assets. Target players who can defend, shoot 3’s and has a strong basketball IQ.

With that said, if we can get guys like “Saddiq Bey, Nesmith, Vessell, Tillman, Bane and Joe”, any combination of those and I’ll be a happy camper.

Roll out a lineup of:

Fox
Nesmith/Bay/Vessell
Bane
Barnes
Bagley

Bench:

Joseph
Joe
Jeffries
Giles/ Parker
Tillman

This roster would probably win 20-25 games but it would be fun to watch having guys who can shoot the 3-ball and defend at a high level but would lose due to lack of experience. Secures us a top 5 pick and achieves the purpose of developing the young guys.

Last edited 2 years ago by RAP87
WGriffith
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September 28, 2020 1:19 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

My starting line-up was strictly centered on the start of next season. I think there’s a good possibility that Bogi signs for more than McNair wants to give him and if that’s the case, the most we get for him is a small asset in a S&T. I do think Buddy ends up getting traded, but not by opening day. My starting lineup reflects that.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 9:20 am

…or is Peja irreplaceable?

Solid gold, baby.

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September 28, 2020 11:14 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Thanks to Tim and Will for responding to my question. Battier would be a fantastic addition to the FO!

And thanks to Andy Sims for noticing my alternate question!
comment image

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 9:57 am

I just don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that the Kings should “build around Fox and Bagley”. I posted this in response to RORDOG’s question on the other thread “Who is your Kings starting 5 to start the season”… This is a complete blow-up situation, if we are ever going to truly compete in my opinion.

This is my complete tear-down nuclear plan, which I’ve added to over the last several days while bored at work€¦ I’ve mentioned a couple of these trades before, but I’ve been thinking about a Mavericks deal to go along with it.

Trade 1: Fox, Hield, Parker to NYK for 2021 unprotected 1st, Robinson, Ntilikina, Portis, Gibson.

Trade 2: Barnes, Bagley, Bjelly, Justin James to ORL for Isaac, Bamba, Fournier, Aminu.

Trade 3: Sign and trade Bogi, Cojo, Holmes to DAL for #18 pick this year, Hardaway, Seth, and bring back JJ.

Draft Nesmith at #12, and Maxey/Lewis at #18.

**Sign Isaiah Thomas to be our starting point guard**

PG: IT, Ntilikina, Maxey/Lewis
SG: Hardaway, Curry, Nesmith
SF: Fournier, Jeffries, JJ
PF: Portis, (Isaac-INJ), Gibson, Aminu
C: Robinson, Bamba, Giles??

Seems like a sure-fire top 5 pick in 2021, plus the Knicks pick.

PLUS this gives us over $60M in expiring contracts THIS YEAR to package for contracts and picks. Big free agent bonanza next off-season. Cap space like this will be at a premium.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 10:10 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Seventy-three simple steps to success!

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 10:29 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Yep!

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 10:52 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I think the Knicks target a superstar for their 2021 unprotected pick. Heck they’d probably take Wiggins and the #2 the Warriors have for that pick over Fox and Hield.

Last edited 2 years ago by Wonderchild
AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 11:06 am
Reply to  Wonderchild

It’s possible they could get more, but I doubt they want Wiggins’ contract just to get LaMelo.

Scott Perry is the guy who would’ve taken Fox #1. And the only point guards they have right now are Elfrid Payton (non-guaranteed), Ntilikina and DSJ. Shooting guards are lacking as well (Ellington and Bullock)… I think that trade would fit them nicely. While putting us in great shape to have two high lottery picks in a stacked draft.

But yes, that 2021 pick might fetch more. I think it’s worth a shot though.

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September 28, 2020 3:24 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

No way

WGriffith
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September 28, 2020 1:24 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I don’t think your second or third trade gets agreed to by Orlando or Dallas. Regardless of Isaac’s injury history, he’s a big part of Orlando’s future plans and so that deal is a no go. I also wouldn’t give up Fox just yet for any deal, as he’s still a young asset and capable of growing into the second best player on a playoff team.

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 2:26 pm
Reply to  WGriffith

Not sure about Fox being that good. Especially since his extension will likely be around $30M/year. And how are we going to get the #1 star?

richie88
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September 28, 2020 10:16 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

The only way I can see the Kings getting a superstar is if they have a high pick in the 2021 &/or 2022 drafts.

AirmaxPG
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September 29, 2020 9:09 am
Reply to  richie88

I agree. And the only way I can see to get one of those very high picks is by trading Fox.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 29, 2020 11:01 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Or, you know, just by being a bad basketball team and losing a lot.

richie88
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September 29, 2020 11:42 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Trading Fox would be 1 way to do it. Losing a lot of games would be another way to do it.

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September 29, 2020 1:00 pm
Reply to  richie88

You do the first, you probably achieve the second.

richie88
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September 29, 2020 6:03 pm
Reply to  Otis

That’s true, but I think the Kings could lose a lot of games next season w/o trading Fox.

BestHyperboleEver
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September 29, 2020 6:32 pm
Reply to  Otis

So two high picks then? In potentially exceptionally strong drafts?

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 10:21 am

With a lot of cash strapped teams out there, I think there will be a lot of 3 team trades going on this offseason, which is where I think the Kings can get the most out of a Hield trade. Jump in on one of the deals of teams trading max contracts, like OKC, GS, or Philly.

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September 28, 2020 10:30 am

Thanks for answering my questions, guys. I think I’m pretty much in agreement with you that any semblance of the status quo from the last few years would be major cause for concern for the organization as a whole.

On a tangential note, thinking about the cash difficulties the league (well, every sports league) is facing because of the pandemic, does anyone think this might create a window for expansion? I mean, the NHL’s last expansion fee was over $500 million, and possible NBA teams in the right markets (Seattle, Vancouver, Las Vegas) could probably easily fetch $750 million or even $1 billion expansion fees, which would be a pretty quick cash infusion for a league that will be strapped from having no ticket sales and from paying up to run the bubble playoffs. The idea came to mind after reading an idea about MLB expansion. I admit I am nowhere near an expert on the NBA’s finances, but it seems like if there were ever a moment where expansion was on the table, it would be when everyone, from the players to the league office to the owners, are facing a major cash crunch, and for as completely insane and ridiculous as our economy is, there are still plenty of billionaires out there who would be willing and able to pony up to join such an exclusive club.

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 10:36 am

Sounds like a fantastic idea. New teams in Seattle and Vegas. Maybe Memphis and Minnesota could move to the east.

richie88
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September 28, 2020 10:24 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Given the success of the Golden Knights, I don’t think a NBA expansion team in Vegas is a good idea. KC or Vancouver seem like better markets to me. Only 1 West team would need to move to the East in a scenario where 2 teams are added to the West (& I think it’d make more sense if Minny moved).

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September 28, 2020 10:42 am

Interesting. I imagine it could be a stop gap for some teams’ financial issues. It doesn’t answer the long term viewership or purported ratings decreases across the board, but it could delay that problem a couple years at minimum.

If this is in the cards for owners, I assume they would insist on an amnesty clause for each team. The spending spree from last offseason is causing a lot of early buyer’s remorse for a lot of teams.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 10:48 am

I’m not a plutocrat or anything, but I think I’d be hesitant to drop half-a-billion dollars on an investment where its two largest revenue streams, ticket sales and broadcast rights, will absolutely be crushed due to the pandemic.

This winter is going to be a culling unlike anything we’ve seen before. I’d be surprised if the league gets clearance to have crowds as large as twenty-five percent of capacity.

It would open up 15-30 jobs, of course, but all of them would be, by definition, currently not good enough to play in the NBA. Diluting the product also dilutes TV revenues.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 11:00 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Oh, you’re definitely right, it’s not a great idea for the long term. I think the problem is that the league, just like so many businesses of all different sizes, now faces the difficulty of whether to prioritize the short term or the long term. Long term, absolutely, do not expand, especially right now, but with how much money is being lost day after day, who’s to say there will even be a long term after a certain point? The league might be in a place where they have to make a short term move and figure out the repercussions later.

I also think it’s an interesting point you raise about TV revenues. I personally think it’s a load of malarkey the people coming out now saying they’ll never watch the NBA again because of the justice work because chances are most of those are people who didn’t watch basketball to begin with. It’s a strange situation where, honestly, I could see Vancouver being an attractive expansion market on the grounds that it’s not an American market with all the headaches that brings.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 11:14 am

My impression is that the “fan boycott” is pretty overblown. I seem to recall reading that NBA playoff ratings were as high or higher than 2019. I’m sure some of that is pure thirst from more casual fans who’ve really missed the game. If so, it suggests that either the people yelling about never watching again are full of shit, or the league has created some new fans. I’d guess it’s a little from both columns.

If the NBA does make the mistake of expansion, I agree, Seattle should absolutely get the first shot at landing a team. With that said, I don’t know if you’d also want to give one to Vancouver, since they’re so close together geographically, and would create imbalance from a conference standpoint. Maybe you look at Kansas City, and see if Memphis is amenable to switching conferences. I’d think they’d see that as a gift.

Long-term, I’d bet that the league expands to Las Vegas, in spite of everything indicating that it’s a terrible idea. Particularly with the Raiders in place (for now), there’s just too much potential revenue there for the NBA to resist, unseemliness be damned.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 11:23 am
Reply to  andy_sims

See below, but I think Vancouver could make a lot of sense for the league, even with the geography of being within 300 miles of one, possibly two, franchises.

I also agree with you that Vegas barely made sense, and that was before the Raiders. I’m guessing if any team in the West wanted to switch to the East, it would be the Pelicans. I am hard pressed to think of anything Western about New Orleans. Plus, that gives the East another possible star in Zion since the West is already stacked as it is.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 11:45 am

That’s a good call. If you do add two teams to the Western Conference, New Orleans is the other team to switch conferences, but only because Smoothie King Center is technically on the eastern side of the Mississippi River.

Actually, bearing that geographical fact in mind, I insist that the Pelicans move to the Eastern Conference. I’m like Rainman with maps, and this is going to drive me nuts until it’s rectified.

Adamsite
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September 28, 2020 11:52 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Then what about Memphis? It too is on the eastern shore of the Mississippi River.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 12:23 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Tell them their new arena needs to be built across the river.

Kosta
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September 28, 2020 12:32 pm

Dam river! Move IT instead.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 12:46 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

*blinks*

BbV_ZMLfJCWWkQd62iGFOPQd05g=.gif
SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 12:22 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

You know, if you really want to get radical, scrap the East/West and divide the league North/South. Almost seems geographically neater.

Northern Conference:

Boston
Toronto
New York
Brooklyn
Philadelphia
Detroit
Indiana
Bulls
Minnesota
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Washington DC
Portland
Sacramento
San Francisco

Southern Conference:

Charlotte
Atlanta
Miami
Orlando
Memphis
New Orleans
Houston
Dallas
San Antonio
Oklahoma City
Denver
Salt Lake City
Phoenix
Los Angeles (x2)

Kosta
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September 28, 2020 12:31 pm

How about Big Markets Conference and Smaller Markets Conference:

BMC:

Knicks
Nets
L*kers
Clippers
Hawks
Celtics
Warriors
Bulls
Rockets
Wizards
Raptors
Pistons
Heat
Mavericks
Sixers

SMC:

Kings
Spurs
Thunder
Jazz
Pacers
Hornets
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Magic
Bucks
Trailblazers
Nuggets
Cavs
T-Wolves
Suns

Last edited 2 years ago by Kosta
andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 12:56 pm

It’s an interesting idea, but my understanding is that the east/west split was mainly predicated on limiting distances traveled by teams for road games.

If you imagine West coast teams like Sacramento, San Francisco and Portland each needing to travel twice a season to Boston, Toronto, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Philly, and DC, that’s a slog. I’d imagine the players’ union might take issue with travel increasing so much. To a lesser degree, New Orleans and Memphis are already dealing with this.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 1:03 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

From a purely geographic perspective, Portland is the most isolated team in the league. I remember reading some analysis where, in a typical 82 game season, it is impossible to make the travel numbers work so that Portland ISN’T spending the most amount of time traveling.

richie88
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September 29, 2020 1:05 am
Reply to  andy_sims

Based on what I’ve read, Portland & Minny have the most travel.

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 12:57 pm

I think it would make more sense to move Minny to the east as opposed to New Orleans.

The closest team in the West to Minneapolis is what, OKC or Denver? About 800 miles away. By comparison Minny to Chicago or Milwaukee is about half that.

New Orleans on the other hand is closer to Houston and Dallas than it is to Atlanta or Orlando.

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September 28, 2020 12:59 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Agreed, from a travel perspective, Minny should be in the East.

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 1:43 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I’d imagine 4-5 WC teams would happily volunteer to move to the EC, since the talent divide doesn’t seem to be ever going away.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 1:48 pm
Reply to  AirmaxPG

Damn it, you’re right. These towns on the Mississippi are bullshit.

Kosta
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September 28, 2020 12:23 pm

Canadians will follow Vancouver, Seattleites will follow the Sonics.

Although, I don’t remember–did the Grizzlies leave because of fan attendance?

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September 28, 2020 12:25 pm
Reply to  Kosta

Nah. Thousands were lining up to see Big Country Reeves play.

Kosta
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September 28, 2020 12:41 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Hey, I still have Big Country’s rookie card!

Anyone want to trade for it?

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 12:28 pm
Reply to  Kosta

I mean, last time I was in Vancouver (and boy, what I wouldn’t give to be there now), I saw one store still selling Grizzlies gear.

richie88
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September 29, 2020 1:10 am
Reply to  Kosta

IIRC, it was due to problems w/attendance & the exchange rate.

Kosta
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September 28, 2020 12:20 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I’d like to see Vancouver get a team again. Great, beautiful city.

And heck, Vancouver and Seattle are much further apart than the L*kers and the Clippers, who are both in the same division. Maybe they can put the Pelicans in the East.

If the league expands to Vegas, do not let the m*loofs in.

Also, the Raiders will eventually be back in Oakland anyway, yeah? (And then on to their new city, and then back to Oakland….etc.)

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September 28, 2020 1:50 pm
Reply to  Kosta

I think the Raiders land somewhere else before they go back to Oakland. Maybe a few years in St. Louis or Phoenix, or some equally horrible place.

richie88
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September 29, 2020 12:55 am
Reply to  andy_sims

I’ve read that the NBA’s ratings are down (as are the NHL’s ratings), but the mitigating circumstances of an unprecedented situation make it an apples to oranges comparison.

From a geography standpoint, it’d make more sense to move Minny to the East. I’m pretty sure that they’re farther from other West teams than Memphis or NO.

The Golden Knights are the best reason not to expand to Vegas. Once people can attend games again, I’m pretty sure its residents will strongly prefer the very good NHL team to what’s likely to be a crappy NBA team.

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September 28, 2020 11:08 am
Reply to  andy_sims

I think they could probably get away with adding two teams without diluting the product to the point that quality of play would impact ratings significantly. They’d be adding two new RSNs that would obviously increase local viewership to help offset any depression in viewership for the national telecasts as well. The key would obviously be picking the correct markets. Seattle is a no-brainer. They already have the built-in fan support, and a billionaire ready to invest. The second city would probably come down to the big city/state that has a billionaire resident that has a spare billion dollars in their couch cushion.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 11:12 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Think it’s safe to say Louisville can be crossed off the list for getting an expansion team. There’d likely be an uproar, including players, if the league got involved there. Seattle, Vegas, and Vancouver seem the most likely to me. Maybe Kansas City/St. Louis as fringe options? I doubt it, though. No established fanbases like Seattle to offset the competition from other leagues.

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 11:16 am

I’ve thought about San Diego as well. Especially with the Chargers leaving town, that’s one of the populous cities in America with no major sports team playing in the late fall/winter. And lets be honest the Padres are usually eliminated by August.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 11:20 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

San Diego would be an interesting choice, but it’s hard to see the league expanding there and snubbing Vancouver since they have the same geographic roadblock. At least with Vancouver, you’re returning a franchise to a city that’s shown clear interest from recent preseason games in a return to the NBA and has the advantage of further developing the Canadian/Asian markets (since they don’t call it Hongcouver for nothing).

AirmaxPG
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September 28, 2020 11:31 am

Yeah it roughly the same distance from LA as Vancouver is from Seattle, but the population difference is pretty significant.

I think you are right though, it could come down to the NBA wanting to become more of an international product.

I mean, it would just make a lot more sense if the stupid Clippers would just move to Seattle or San Diego or Anaheim. Having two elite teams in the same arena long term is just weird. Pretty awkward when one team has to cover up the other teams championship banners during a home game.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 11:48 am
Reply to  AirmaxPG

I believe the LA teams will be in separate arenas going forward. Of course, if the bubble continues out of necessity into ’20-’21, that’s all up in the air.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 12:24 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I don’t see how there won’t be a bubble or regional bubbles for the 20/21 season, to say nothing of a full 82 game slate. Depending on how you look at it, the US is either entering the third wave, dealing with the second wave, or still in the first wave of the pandemic.

andy_sims
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September 28, 2020 12:31 pm

This is still the first wave, because people have been too stupid to limit their behavior, so the infection/death rates have never fallen to a level that was considered to be under control.

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 12:37 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

It varies by state because the feds didn’t take control of things. Some states like Arizona are in their first wave still, and others like New York and Washington are almost all the way open because people are mostly being responsible.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 12:54 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

We’re starting to see what looks like a third wave here in Oregon. The first wave was fairly mild, then came the summer surge after Memorial Day, and right when things started getting back under control, sure enough, two weeks after Labor Day (plus over 10% of the state under evacuation orders), things are spiking again. Obviously you can’t fault the 500k people who had to move at a moment’s notice and go to shelters or find friends or family to stay with in the face of natural disaster, but you can fault Greek Row at UO for throwing parties.

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 1:45 pm

you mean those 500k people chose their family valuables over a box of masks?

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 1:54 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

I’m genuinely not trying to be blase about it. With that many people on the move, leaving their personal bubbles, packing into shelters and going through gas stations, supermarkets, etc, it’s inevitable there would be a spike from that. I’m not going to fault people who got told they have ten minutes to leave their house before it burns down if they weren’t able to fully prepare for pandemic conditions.

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 2:06 pm

My last comment was 100% snark btw. Living in NorCal my whole life, I get it.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 12:52 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

True. And to think, one year ago we were rated as the most prepared country on Earth for handling a pandemic. Unfortunately, what they didn’t factor in is that America is full of Americans.

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September 28, 2020 12:57 pm

comment image

Last edited 2 years ago by Adamsite
Hozr
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September 28, 2020 7:26 pm

Damn, I wish I could rec this about 100 million more times.

Hozr
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September 28, 2020 7:24 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

I recall Dr. Fauci stating that COVID-19 doesn’t exhibit seasonality so technically there will be no separate waves. It’s all one continuous unending wave. The wave will never end because Americans are too stupid to exercise self control and limit their behavior. Doesn’t that make you feel better?

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September 28, 2020 12:34 pm

I think they’ll have to do multiple bubbles for next season. There are 29 empty arenas to work with after all, and many other venues available if necessary.

Have 5-6 bubbles open at a time spread out across those 29 empty NBA arenas. Just plan for teams to switch bubbles every month. No arena will be used in consecutive months for sanitation purposes. Have the first 5 days of each month for travel and quarantine, and the last few days for potential makeup games. In between, each team plays roughly every other day.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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September 28, 2020 12:40 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

Take a page from the Globetrotters. Get 6 teams to one location and have them play each other once or twice. Next, those 6 teams break up and go their separate ways to another location where a different group of teams play each other once or twice. 6 teams into rotating 5 bubbles. The issue is going to be fan attendance. There is zero point to traveling if fans can’t attend games in person.

Wonderchild
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September 28, 2020 12:52 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

I think you still have teams travel, even without the ability of fans in attendance. It breaks up some of the monotony for the players, who are mostly used to life on the road during the season. Also gives arena employees in all cities a chance for work.

It would increase the chances of infection rates, but I think the biggest hurdle would be having enough referees to stock all 5 bubbles.

SMF-PDXConnection
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September 28, 2020 1:01 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

Good point on the refs. You’d either have the same set of refs for each bubble, which could create conflicts, or you’re having the refs travel while teams stay in place, which isn’t really fair and probably wouldn’t get buy-in from the referees union.

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September 28, 2020 1:30 pm

I would assume you need at least 4-5 full sets of refs plus alternates both for variety and workload. Arenas would probably be playing 2-3 games per day at minimum if the rumors are true and the league wants a full 82 game schedule.

If there aren’t enough refs, they could certainly reduce the amount of live bubbles, but you need at least two in my opinion. I just shudder at the fact of 450 players stuck in one city for 4-5 months of regular season.