Welcome back to Chainmail! Thank you everyone for all of your wonderful questions. We got to chat about potential Buddy Hield trades, Monte McNair’s staff, future coaching candidates, Marvin Bagley’s value, site feedback, and much, much more!
Before we get into your questions, we do want to thank our sponsor for the mailbag, Carter Imports! Carter Imports is a Sacramento-based company that imports some of the very best Extra Virgin Olive Oil and Cretan Thyme Honey available in the world today. There has never been a better time to support one of our own than right now!
Now, let’s jump into some answers, shall we?
From 1951:
McNair likes Buddy. Buddy likes Philly. Does he stay or go?
Tim: If I was a betting man (which I’m not. I don’t know how to do sports betting or play the lottery or any of that nonsense), I would put a lot of money on Buddy wearing another uniform next season. He was publicly unhappy during his contract negotiations, he was publicly unhappy throughout the season with the coaching staff, and he was publicly unhappy with his role and playing time at the end of the season. Buddy is not subtle, and if he isn’t moved, I believe things will turn very ugly, very quickly.
From a best trade partner perspective, Philly kind of sucks. They only have terrible contracts and middling assets, other than Matisse Thybulle, who seems to valuable to swap for Buddy. The Sixers also might pursue much bigger fish than Hield, such as Chris Paul of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Will: I don’t think there’s going to be an off-season move that really fits for the Kings and a move for Buddy Hield. With our assumption that McNair took the job on the contingency that Luke Walton has to stick around for an indefinite amount of time, I think it’ll go something like this: McNair attempt to fix the relationship between Buddy and Walton by impressing upon Walton that they need to pick up the pace and stop putting Buddy in low-efficiency situations and telling Buddy that if he’s still unhappy, in time, he’ll swap him to a new team. Around the All-Star Break, Buddy’s stock is reasonably higher than last season and a team at the deadline who really needs that shooting pays through the nose to get him. McNair is only going to get a three month window between now and the start of the season and I don’t think that allows for enough time for him to negotiate all the way through and acceptable trade scenario. By waiting till the break, it puts pressure on teams that want Buddy to up their offers, especially if they’re struggling around the break. It gives Buddy a chance to showcase, Walton more rope to hang himself. There will always be a need for Hield’s services, and McNair knows the difference between being aggressive and rushing the job. Don’t be surprised if Buddy starts next season with the Kings and finishes in the playoffs somewhere else.
From RikSmits:
What is Bagley’s likely trade value at this moment? Is he healthy?
Tim: Marvin Bagley’s trade value is low enough that moving on from him is all but impossible at this point. For example, if you called the New Orleans Pelicans and offered them Bagley for the 13th pick straight up, I think they turn you down. His potential is too important for this team to deal away for a non-lottery pick.
His health is a complete mystery to everyone. The team’s announcements around his injuries have always been odd, and that level of oddity only increases depending on how much of a conspiracy theorist you are at any given moment. I can confidently say that no new injuries have been announced, and that’s about it.
Will: Yeah, there is just no plausible deal that amounts to Marvin Bagley being traded right now. If I had to pin it? Maybe a low first rounder this year? Like Pick 29 and a future second rounder? The combination of his health and proximity to a new contract just really kills anything that gets close.
From SMF-PDXConnection
The 2021 season is over. McNair has been at the helm for one year. What would you call success? What would you call failure? What signs would give you hope? What signs would concern you?
Tim: The failure/concerns probably fall under the same category for me. I very much do not want to see the Kings make a desperate push for the 8th seed as they’ve been doing for the last few years. The roster isn’t good enough to make it, nor are the team’s assets of a high enough quality to be swapped for the kind of talent that will be needed to close that gap. Don’t trade Buddy Hield for Tobias Harris or Kevin Love or Blake Griffin. Don’t sacrifice picks for average to above-average veterans. If those are the kinds of moves Monte McNair is making, color me concerned.
Success will be dictate by individual moves and the results of those moves, not be a win-loss record. I want to see McNair cash out veterans (Hield, Bogdanovic, Bjelica, Holmes, etc.) for young contributors (Turner, Gordon, Ball, etc.) and/or draft picks or unproven young contributors. This team needs to reset around De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley. If McNair can start to build that core, I’ll be very pleased, even if that means winning 25 games next year.
Will: The bar for success is pretty much laying on the ground right now. Reasonably, if McNair makes any sort of moves, doesn’t get outright burnt in those moves and there’s any individual improvement from De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley, it’s a successful season. Maybe not a massive coup and it certainly wouldn’t leave me excited necessarily but “don’t fuck it completely up” is the bar for success. What would give me actual hope is seeing some of our bigger contracts moved for young assets or draft picks, or at least converting them to players on big expiring deals for draft compensation. I would really like to see that average age drop and our core pieces to stay relatively healthy. For Fox and Bagley, that would be 70 games + of playing together. After the seasons done, hearing Walton is gone and seeing a list of young, intelligent coaches are being rumored for the job. That would give me that tingling feeling like the ship is finally turning around.
Next season is going to suck from a “watching basketball” perspective. The only ways to make it worse are for McNair to say Walton is going to coach out his contract, for McNair to really get swindled or for him to make an all out swing for a playoff spot by giving up picks. He would pretty much have to go against his word or show that he is really only a puppet for the ownership/advisors.
From MauricePWhipporwill:
From Kosta
Who do you think we could replace with Luke, or is it too early to tell? (i.e., we will have to see who is looking for a job when that time comes)
If that’s too hard to answer, who do you think are the best coaches in the NBA? Maybe like a top 5, and what are your answers based on?
Tim: It’s a little early to say who could replace Walton. We know he’s going to be here to start the season, and even if he’s fired at the All-Star break, the team won’t look to add a permanent replacement until the 2021 offseason. I would like to see the Kings pursue an up-and-comer, similar to the McNair hire, rather than going with a known quantity. Becky Hammon, Ime Udoka, and Wes Unseld Jr. would all be fantastic candidates if they’re available in the coming months.
My top-5 coaches in the NBA, in no particular order: Greg Popovich, Eric Spoelstra, Nick Nurse, Rick Carlisle, Brad Stevens.
Will: I think it’s a bit too early to tell and am preparing myself to see Luke Walton on the sideline for the duration of next season. Anything less than that and I’m happy, but with money being what it is right now for NBA owners? That man is parked on the bench for 82-ish games. I’m all in favor of giving a coaching job to a first-timer under the conditions that they’re forward thinking and have an understanding and appreciation for analytics. It makes no sense to have a 21st century mind leading a company that want to use typerwriters, so any of Becky Hammon, Ime Udoka or Wes Unseld would be fine. I’m also very impressed with Charles Lee, who is currently the lead assistant behind Mike Budenholzer for the last six years. Steve Hetzel, Will Hardy and Jahmal Mosely will all be names that should be brought into the conversation as well.
As for my top 5 coaches right now (in order): Spoelstra, Nurse, Popovich, Carlisle then Stevens. Really wanted to throw Quin Snyder in there as well but he’s comfortably my #6.
From RORDOG
What happened to The Court Jester and Snackramento? I’m a pod guy, and I’m curious as to why this site is not into pods.
Tim: I wanted to include this question in the mailbag to be able to announce that RORDOG has been banned for questioning our decision-making. I kid! I kid!
First and foremost, thank you for the feedback, RORDOG. As a team transitioning from writing for a site to running a site, we’re not always aware of the impact of certain decisions or what’s a priority to everyone reading or subscribing to our venture here at The Kings Herald. Outside of this particular question, if anyone reading through the mailbag response has a question, comment, suggestion, or piece of feedback, please feel free to let us know in the comments below. If you’re more comfortable doing that privately, you can always DM one of us on Twitter or shoot an email to editorial@kingsherald.com. We seriously want and need your feedback, and we’ll be introducing a more formal way of giving that to us shortly.
Okay, now to the question at hand. We have had some setbacks with both The Court Jester and Snackramento, and both are currently on (possibly permanent) hiatus, so we’re looking into some pretty cool options for replacing those shows. As far as Sanjesh’s and my new show, Watching the Tape, is concerned, Sanjesh was added to the Be Heard network, which was founded to give a platform to underutilized and minority voices, and he kindly asked me to join him as the co-host before launching the show. It was never a case of the folks here at the site not wanting us to do a podcast; they’ve all been super supportive of Sanjesh and tolerant of me. I relate it a little to Akis, Greg, and Rich writing for the Sacramento Bee – an opportunity to interact with Sacramento media members outside of the TKH bubble.
I don’t want anyone to think that podcasts aren’t important to the site. Rather, once we realized that The Court Jester and Snackramento may not be sustainable for a variety of reasons, we decided to take the proper amount of time and invest the proper amount of money to produce high-quality replacements for those shows, rather than throwing together a half-assed substitute that no one would enjoy. The options that we’re looking into may include some live programming (let us know if that interests you or what that looks like in your perfect world), fan contributions, internal hosts, external hosts, and a few other exciting possibilities. While I can’t guarantee an exact date as to when these things will happen, I’m confident that it’ll be worth the wait.
Will: I can speak to this a little bit, as well. Snackramento was and is a product of love for Richard, Kevin and I, and we really truly wanted to highlight things during the pandemic that were going unnoticed: specifically how great my food choices are. Also, local food joints. We originally stopped around the same time as the pandemic turned from baking bread to large-scale protests across the country because we felt we couldn’t in anyway pay respect to that movement, while also maintaining a tone that would be fun and interesting to listen to. Then some life happened and The Bubble happened and it just got away from us a bit. I’m not saying it won’t come back, because I know Richard and Kevin both love learning new things about the culinary world from me and I love realizing that I’m a raging foodie psychopath in real time and for an audience. The world just had far more important things for us then the podcast and it continues to. As soon as there is a space where we can discuss our favorite foods and planes crashing into ice cream parlors again, I might expect some version of it to return. So, straighten up world. Our best-worst opinions haven’t even been said yet.
That being said, The Kings Herald is still in its infancy as a website. We’re constantly discussing changes and we’ve had plans that have yet to be spoken about to you all, but have been in development since before the site launched. This team of men and women are a creative, intelligent, wild bunch and I can’t wait to look back five years from now and remember how quaint this period of the website was for all of us.
Keep asking these questions. Keep bringing suggestions to comments, or to Twitter or to our emails. We want to know what you want, how we can improve and what we’re doing wrong. Right this very second, Bryant is locked in the TKH Recruiting Office pouring over tapes of Lamine Diane, just to write an article that amounts to “No.” Why?
Because he hates Lamine Diane and he wants you to stop saying his name. (Just kidding). We aren’t here without you all, so speak up when you’ve got questions. We might not have a definitive answer, but we will spend 7 paragraphs telling you that too.
Thanks for all that you guys do.
Thoughts on your thoughts:
How much value does Marvin Bagley III have right now? A lot higher than Tim and Will think.
i think you have to look at it from the kings perspective but not with our disappointed fan goggles on (where’s Luca?!?!). To give definable value to MBIII in relationship to draft picks, I think it’s Very realistic as well as fair to say he’s worth a top 5 draft pick in this years or any future draft. His upside is still top 5 talent. His very small sample size is top 5 talent. There’s no way in hell the Kings trade MBIII for anything less than a top 5 pick right now. I think that’s fact. Therefore, his value is a top 5 draft pick. What other teams offer in attempts to trade for Bagley doesn’t equal his value.
The # 10 pick + a young prospect or the #10 pick + an all star vet on a big contract is the value that likely equals MBIII as well.
The #6 pick in this years draft for Marvin Bagley III will never happen. The Kings would not do that. = his value is higher than that.
In this case, I guess its a discussion of value vs. worth. If you were given a hot rod and Kelly Blue Book values the car at $100k, it might be valued at a $100k. But if no one is willing to buy it, if its known to breakdown and have constant maintenance issues and you get out from under it for $25k, it was only worth $25k to you.
Marvin’s talent might be Top 5 in this draft sure, but talent doesn’t show up in the box score, it doesn’t lace them up. If teams are uneasy about Marvin’s various injuries, it doesn’t matter what his value is, it’s what he’s worth to obtain. I think Tim and I are looking at what teams would be willing to give out for him.
“Hot Rod only drives left. Breaks down occasionally, but 2nd Jump-start was fast. As for Smog-test, not sure if it will pass. Paint job is kind of appealing. For long-distance excursions, there are better models in it’s class. “
Well said.
And this is to say nothing about the fact that he’s owed $20MM over the next to seasons and has already burnt two years of team control while mostly missing two years of development.
First of all, I love the Kelly blue book reference.
I here that. I think the disappointment in MBIII is having too strong an affect on both your valuation of hm though. Bagley is still super young. His injuries have been pretty flooky and not recurring to the same body part. While Bagley has been arguably the most disappointing prospect from 2018 (an incredibly deep draft), his upside is still very high.
Every single team in the nba would trade pick 6 in this draft or the next Draft straight up for Bagley. Every single one. The risk reward in that deal is WAY WORTH IT for any other team. As frustrated as I am with MBIII, I think if we are being real, he’d be the consensus top pick in this draft. So… whatever his value is exactly, it’s relative to the people making the judgements obviously. I think our judgements are quite skewed when it comes to Bagley in particularly. The Luca Law should not be applied here.
I really don’t think any team in the NBA would trade a 2021 lottery pick for Bagley. I’m not sure many would trade a top 6 this year. I think you’re underestimating the impact of losing 2 years of apparent development and team control. Again, why wouldn’t a team in the top 6 just draft Toppin? They get more developed shooting and passing ability AND the full rookie contract. Or Wiseman, who gives you excellent athleticism with better size/length, more present rim protection and just as much shooting upside? Even if you think Bagley is a slightly better prospect, those 2-3 extra years of team-control, especially when it comes to players that need a lot of development, are HUGE.
He may be a top 5 talent, which probably tells you more about this draft class than about Bagley’s talent. Or both.
But it is not like talent is the main thing. His skills and potential are not very coveted in today’s NBA. Can he develop other, more essential skills? Perhaps, but not likely.
And that decreases his value significantly, IMO.
I think you’re incorrect. I believe you’re suffering from a severe case of Luca lesions.
MBIII skills and talent are undeniable. The upside is still huge. We don’t know how his skill set transfers yet and thats the point. That’s why his value is still very high. Not how our Luca lesions are making us feel. MBIII has speed, size, athleticism comparable to the elites, touch, ball handling, great rebounding and an impressive offensive game that could feasibly extend to the three point line.
his skills are coveted. Period. Is draymond greens skill set coveted? Is Kevin Loves? Jokic? The Greek Freak? Marvins ceiling is still in that good company. His foot injuries haven’t changed that. Is he even 21 yet? The guy has way more value than our disappointment in him shows.
WHICH IS A GOOD THING.
Literally all those guys you mentioned are elite passers for their position while Bagley has never shown any ability or desire to make anything beyond the absolutely most basic of passes. And that skill is exactly what makes every one of those guys special.
I believe the opposite is true. Bags can’t shoot, play D, pass, barely can go right, and rebounds(defensive) very average/inconsistent. (He is not a great rebounder).
Not about Lukaistus, just about how much Bags needs to improve just to be an ok starter. The odds are very slim he’ll improve enough, especially shooting and D or that he’ll be anything more than a stat stuffer. Not to mention the injuries.
Thanks Vlade.
To be fair we haven’t seen him try to play D or pass so I’ll reserve judgement. Hoping by year 10 we can make that evaluation.
I wanted to make a is Toppin Topping Marvin?-comment but I was afraid people would be upset with me.
Bagley is more athletic laterally, but otherwise Toppin is basically what we hoped Bagley would develop into by now.
4.) yes, 100%
3.) I think he would be top 5 in a red draft. If you’re going off talent and upside, yes, 100%. If you’re going off numbers over two years then no obviously. That’s injuries fault. Pretty low key injuries have kept him out. MANY scouts had Marvin with the most upside over all players in that entire draft. That didn’t evaporate.
2.) acting like MBIII isn’t a top 5 pick in this draft at 21 is caused from Luca Lesions. He is. I don’t know how to convince you. Just look at the talent, the size and the skill with eyes that aren’t layered in extreme disappointment. The T Wolves could easily see a pairing of MBIII and KAT as unstoppable. It would be nasty. The warriors would take MBIII in a heart beat at #2. I have no doubt in that.
1.) my Nana is decorative? I mean she is, she likes little classic decor from the 60’s and 70’s and loves decorating for Christmas with an entire nativity scene. MBIII’s value is what you could get for him in an actual trade that happens. Not what another team wishes would happen. Both teams need to feel comfortable. That’s the players value. They’re valued between 2-30 parties. The valuation will differ from all 30 teams. If the kings don’t think the value is high enough then they won’t trade him. His value to the Kings is his value. His value to the kings is still a #2 pick in a very deep draft. His injuries and good play in short sample sizes has sustained that potential value for the Kings. If a team doesn’t agree with that valuation by the kings then they won’t get him in a trade. Much like I know we can’t trade buddy for Steph Curry straight up. Buddy is younger then Step and isn’t returning from another big injury, it’s a fair trade. Actually, no it’s not a fair trade. That’s an extreme and ridiculous example but I hope you get my point.
Redraft 2018 and you get Luka, Ayton, Jaren Jackson, Michael Port Jr, Shae Gilgoues Alexander, Trae Young and maybe other people ahead of Bagley.
Bags would be about 10. There were a couple te drafts and I don’t think he got above 8. Robinson w Knicks way better. Bridges. Sexton. Not to mention others in draft who will be and are better than Bags.
I think one could make a reasonable argument for anywhere between 6 and 12.
I mean, you can dismiss my points all you want, it doesn’t mean you’re right.
The immaturity, lack of BBIQ, tunnel vision, and shot selection/lack of passing is pretty damning.
For the record: I like Wills starting line up the best.
but, why can’t we just keep Bogi?
if buddy is gone I’d like to keep Bogi.
I think it depends on the amount of dollars as well. If it’s well over $15 million per year then I’ll probably say no. Plus I think Bogi does not want to play for a team that is going to be on a rebuild once again. Having him on this team would probably cost us a few wins that would hurt our draft position.
Personally, I would love Mcnair to get rid of Buddy, Bogi, Bjelly and Holmes in exchange for picks and assets. Target players who can defend, shoot 3’s and has a strong basketball IQ.
With that said, if we can get guys like “Saddiq Bey, Nesmith, Vessell, Tillman, Bane and Joe”, any combination of those and I’ll be a happy camper.
Roll out a lineup of:
Fox
Nesmith/Bay/Vessell
Bane
Barnes
Bagley
Bench:
Joseph
Joe
Jeffries
Giles/ Parker
Tillman
This roster would probably win 20-25 games but it would be fun to watch having guys who can shoot the 3-ball and defend at a high level but would lose due to lack of experience. Secures us a top 5 pick and achieves the purpose of developing the young guys.
My starting line-up was strictly centered on the start of next season. I think there’s a good possibility that Bogi signs for more than McNair wants to give him and if that’s the case, the most we get for him is a small asset in a S&T. I do think Buddy ends up getting traded, but not by opening day. My starting lineup reflects that.
Solid gold, baby.
Thanks to Tim and Will for responding to my question. Battier would be a fantastic addition to the FO!
And thanks to Andy Sims for noticing my alternate question!
I just don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that the Kings should “build around Fox and Bagley”. I posted this in response to RORDOG’s question on the other thread “Who is your Kings starting 5 to start the season”… This is a complete blow-up situation, if we are ever going to truly compete in my opinion.
This is my complete tear-down nuclear plan, which I’ve added to over the last several days while bored at work¦ I’ve mentioned a couple of these trades before, but I’ve been thinking about a Mavericks deal to go along with it.
Trade 1: Fox, Hield, Parker to NYK for 2021 unprotected 1st, Robinson, Ntilikina, Portis, Gibson.
Trade 2: Barnes, Bagley, Bjelly, Justin James to ORL for Isaac, Bamba, Fournier, Aminu.
Trade 3: Sign and trade Bogi, Cojo, Holmes to DAL for #18 pick this year, Hardaway, Seth, and bring back JJ.
Draft Nesmith at #12, and Maxey/Lewis at #18.
**Sign Isaiah Thomas to be our starting point guard**
PG: IT, Ntilikina, Maxey/Lewis
SG: Hardaway, Curry, Nesmith
SF: Fournier, Jeffries, JJ
PF: Portis, (Isaac-INJ), Gibson, Aminu
C: Robinson, Bamba, Giles??
Seems like a sure-fire top 5 pick in 2021, plus the Knicks pick.
PLUS this gives us over $60M in expiring contracts THIS YEAR to package for contracts and picks. Big free agent bonanza next off-season. Cap space like this will be at a premium.
Seventy-three simple steps to success!
Yep!
I think the Knicks target a superstar for their 2021 unprotected pick. Heck they’d probably take Wiggins and the #2 the Warriors have for that pick over Fox and Hield.
It’s possible they could get more, but I doubt they want Wiggins’ contract just to get LaMelo.
Scott Perry is the guy who would’ve taken Fox #1. And the only point guards they have right now are Elfrid Payton (non-guaranteed), Ntilikina and DSJ. Shooting guards are lacking as well (Ellington and Bullock)… I think that trade would fit them nicely. While putting us in great shape to have two high lottery picks in a stacked draft.
But yes, that 2021 pick might fetch more. I think it’s worth a shot though.
No way
I don’t think your second or third trade gets agreed to by Orlando or Dallas. Regardless of Isaac’s injury history, he’s a big part of Orlando’s future plans and so that deal is a no go. I also wouldn’t give up Fox just yet for any deal, as he’s still a young asset and capable of growing into the second best player on a playoff team.
Not sure about Fox being that good. Especially since his extension will likely be around $30M/year. And how are we going to get the #1 star?
The only way I can see the Kings getting a superstar is if they have a high pick in the 2021 &/or 2022 drafts.
I agree. And the only way I can see to get one of those very high picks is by trading Fox.
Or, you know, just by being a bad basketball team and losing a lot.
Trading Fox would be 1 way to do it. Losing a lot of games would be another way to do it.
You do the first, you probably achieve the second.
That’s true, but I think the Kings could lose a lot of games next season w/o trading Fox.
So two high picks then? In potentially exceptionally strong drafts?
With a lot of cash strapped teams out there, I think there will be a lot of 3 team trades going on this offseason, which is where I think the Kings can get the most out of a Hield trade. Jump in on one of the deals of teams trading max contracts, like OKC, GS, or Philly.
Thanks for answering my questions, guys. I think I’m pretty much in agreement with you that any semblance of the status quo from the last few years would be major cause for concern for the organization as a whole.
On a tangential note, thinking about the cash difficulties the league (well, every sports league) is facing because of the pandemic, does anyone think this might create a window for expansion? I mean, the NHL’s last expansion fee was over $500 million, and possible NBA teams in the right markets (Seattle, Vancouver, Las Vegas) could probably easily fetch $750 million or even $1 billion expansion fees, which would be a pretty quick cash infusion for a league that will be strapped from having no ticket sales and from paying up to run the bubble playoffs. The idea came to mind after reading an idea about MLB expansion. I admit I am nowhere near an expert on the NBA’s finances, but it seems like if there were ever a moment where expansion was on the table, it would be when everyone, from the players to the league office to the owners, are facing a major cash crunch, and for as completely insane and ridiculous as our economy is, there are still plenty of billionaires out there who would be willing and able to pony up to join such an exclusive club.
Sounds like a fantastic idea. New teams in Seattle and Vegas. Maybe Memphis and Minnesota could move to the east.
Given the success of the Golden Knights, I don’t think a NBA expansion team in Vegas is a good idea. KC or Vancouver seem like better markets to me. Only 1 West team would need to move to the East in a scenario where 2 teams are added to the West (& I think it’d make more sense if Minny moved).
Interesting. I imagine it could be a stop gap for some teams’ financial issues. It doesn’t answer the long term viewership or purported ratings decreases across the board, but it could delay that problem a couple years at minimum.
If this is in the cards for owners, I assume they would insist on an amnesty clause for each team. The spending spree from last offseason is causing a lot of early buyer’s remorse for a lot of teams.
I’m not a plutocrat or anything, but I think I’d be hesitant to drop half-a-billion dollars on an investment where its two largest revenue streams, ticket sales and broadcast rights, will absolutely be crushed due to the pandemic.
This winter is going to be a culling unlike anything we’ve seen before. I’d be surprised if the league gets clearance to have crowds as large as twenty-five percent of capacity.
It would open up 15-30 jobs, of course, but all of them would be, by definition, currently not good enough to play in the NBA. Diluting the product also dilutes TV revenues.
Oh, you’re definitely right, it’s not a great idea for the long term. I think the problem is that the league, just like so many businesses of all different sizes, now faces the difficulty of whether to prioritize the short term or the long term. Long term, absolutely, do not expand, especially right now, but with how much money is being lost day after day, who’s to say there will even be a long term after a certain point? The league might be in a place where they have to make a short term move and figure out the repercussions later.
I also think it’s an interesting point you raise about TV revenues. I personally think it’s a load of malarkey the people coming out now saying they’ll never watch the NBA again because of the justice work because chances are most of those are people who didn’t watch basketball to begin with. It’s a strange situation where, honestly, I could see Vancouver being an attractive expansion market on the grounds that it’s not an American market with all the headaches that brings.
My impression is that the “fan boycott” is pretty overblown. I seem to recall reading that NBA playoff ratings were as high or higher than 2019. I’m sure some of that is pure thirst from more casual fans who’ve really missed the game. If so, it suggests that either the people yelling about never watching again are full of shit, or the league has created some new fans. I’d guess it’s a little from both columns.
If the NBA does make the mistake of expansion, I agree, Seattle should absolutely get the first shot at landing a team. With that said, I don’t know if you’d also want to give one to Vancouver, since they’re so close together geographically, and would create imbalance from a conference standpoint. Maybe you look at Kansas City, and see if Memphis is amenable to switching conferences. I’d think they’d see that as a gift.
Long-term, I’d bet that the league expands to Las Vegas, in spite of everything indicating that it’s a terrible idea. Particularly with the Raiders in place (for now), there’s just too much potential revenue there for the NBA to resist, unseemliness be damned.
See below, but I think Vancouver could make a lot of sense for the league, even with the geography of being within 300 miles of one, possibly two, franchises.
I also agree with you that Vegas barely made sense, and that was before the Raiders. I’m guessing if any team in the West wanted to switch to the East, it would be the Pelicans. I am hard pressed to think of anything Western about New Orleans. Plus, that gives the East another possible star in Zion since the West is already stacked as it is.
That’s a good call. If you do add two teams to the Western Conference, New Orleans is the other team to switch conferences, but only because Smoothie King Center is technically on the eastern side of the Mississippi River.
Actually, bearing that geographical fact in mind, I insist that the Pelicans move to the Eastern Conference. I’m like Rainman with maps, and this is going to drive me nuts until it’s rectified.
Then what about Memphis? It too is on the eastern shore of the Mississippi River.
Tell them their new arena needs to be built across the river.
Dam river! Move IT instead.
*blinks*
You know, if you really want to get radical, scrap the East/West and divide the league North/South. Almost seems geographically neater.
Northern Conference:
Boston
Toronto
New York
Brooklyn
Philadelphia
Detroit
Indiana
Bulls
Minnesota
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Washington DC
Portland
Sacramento
San Francisco
Southern Conference:
Charlotte
Atlanta
Miami
Orlando
Memphis
New Orleans
Houston
Dallas
San Antonio
Oklahoma City
Denver
Salt Lake City
Phoenix
Los Angeles (x2)
How about Big Markets Conference and Smaller Markets Conference:
BMC:
Knicks
Nets
L*kers
Clippers
Hawks
Celtics
Warriors
Bulls
Rockets
Wizards
Raptors
Pistons
Heat
Mavericks
Sixers
SMC:
Kings
Spurs
Thunder
Jazz
Pacers
Hornets
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Magic
Bucks
Trailblazers
Nuggets
Cavs
T-Wolves
Suns
It’s an interesting idea, but my understanding is that the east/west split was mainly predicated on limiting distances traveled by teams for road games.
If you imagine West coast teams like Sacramento, San Francisco and Portland each needing to travel twice a season to Boston, Toronto, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Philly, and DC, that’s a slog. I’d imagine the players’ union might take issue with travel increasing so much. To a lesser degree, New Orleans and Memphis are already dealing with this.
From a purely geographic perspective, Portland is the most isolated team in the league. I remember reading some analysis where, in a typical 82 game season, it is impossible to make the travel numbers work so that Portland ISN’T spending the most amount of time traveling.
Based on what I’ve read, Portland & Minny have the most travel.
I think it would make more sense to move Minny to the east as opposed to New Orleans.
The closest team in the West to Minneapolis is what, OKC or Denver? About 800 miles away. By comparison Minny to Chicago or Milwaukee is about half that.
New Orleans on the other hand is closer to Houston and Dallas than it is to Atlanta or Orlando.
Agreed, from a travel perspective, Minny should be in the East.
I’d imagine 4-5 WC teams would happily volunteer to move to the EC, since the talent divide doesn’t seem to be ever going away.
Damn it, you’re right. These towns on the Mississippi are bullshit.
Canadians will follow Vancouver, Seattleites will follow the Sonics.
Although, I don’t remember–did the Grizzlies leave because of fan attendance?
Nah. Thousands were lining up to see Big Country Reeves play.
Hey, I still have Big Country’s rookie card!
Anyone want to trade for it?
I mean, last time I was in Vancouver (and boy, what I wouldn’t give to be there now), I saw one store still selling Grizzlies gear.
IIRC, it was due to problems w/attendance & the exchange rate.
I’d like to see Vancouver get a team again. Great, beautiful city.
And heck, Vancouver and Seattle are much further apart than the L*kers and the Clippers, who are both in the same division. Maybe they can put the Pelicans in the East.
If the league expands to Vegas, do not let the m*loofs in.
Also, the Raiders will eventually be back in Oakland anyway, yeah? (And then on to their new city, and then back to Oakland….etc.)
I think the Raiders land somewhere else before they go back to Oakland. Maybe a few years in St. Louis or Phoenix, or some equally horrible place.
I’ve read that the NBA’s ratings are down (as are the NHL’s ratings), but the mitigating circumstances of an unprecedented situation make it an apples to oranges comparison.
From a geography standpoint, it’d make more sense to move Minny to the East. I’m pretty sure that they’re farther from other West teams than Memphis or NO.
The Golden Knights are the best reason not to expand to Vegas. Once people can attend games again, I’m pretty sure its residents will strongly prefer the very good NHL team to what’s likely to be a crappy NBA team.
I think they could probably get away with adding two teams without diluting the product to the point that quality of play would impact ratings significantly. They’d be adding two new RSNs that would obviously increase local viewership to help offset any depression in viewership for the national telecasts as well. The key would obviously be picking the correct markets. Seattle is a no-brainer. They already have the built-in fan support, and a billionaire ready to invest. The second city would probably come down to the big city/state that has a billionaire resident that has a spare billion dollars in their couch cushion.
Think it’s safe to say Louisville can be crossed off the list for getting an expansion team. There’d likely be an uproar, including players, if the league got involved there. Seattle, Vegas, and Vancouver seem the most likely to me. Maybe Kansas City/St. Louis as fringe options? I doubt it, though. No established fanbases like Seattle to offset the competition from other leagues.
I’ve thought about San Diego as well. Especially with the Chargers leaving town, that’s one of the populous cities in America with no major sports team playing in the late fall/winter. And lets be honest the Padres are usually eliminated by August.
San Diego would be an interesting choice, but it’s hard to see the league expanding there and snubbing Vancouver since they have the same geographic roadblock. At least with Vancouver, you’re returning a franchise to a city that’s shown clear interest from recent preseason games in a return to the NBA and has the advantage of further developing the Canadian/Asian markets (since they don’t call it Hongcouver for nothing).
Yeah it roughly the same distance from LA as Vancouver is from Seattle, but the population difference is pretty significant.
I think you are right though, it could come down to the NBA wanting to become more of an international product.
I mean, it would just make a lot more sense if the stupid Clippers would just move to Seattle or San Diego or Anaheim. Having two elite teams in the same arena long term is just weird. Pretty awkward when one team has to cover up the other teams championship banners during a home game.
I believe the LA teams will be in separate arenas going forward. Of course, if the bubble continues out of necessity into ’20-’21, that’s all up in the air.
I don’t see how there won’t be a bubble or regional bubbles for the 20/21 season, to say nothing of a full 82 game slate. Depending on how you look at it, the US is either entering the third wave, dealing with the second wave, or still in the first wave of the pandemic.
This is still the first wave, because people have been too stupid to limit their behavior, so the infection/death rates have never fallen to a level that was considered to be under control.
It varies by state because the feds didn’t take control of things. Some states like Arizona are in their first wave still, and others like New York and Washington are almost all the way open because people are mostly being responsible.
We’re starting to see what looks like a third wave here in Oregon. The first wave was fairly mild, then came the summer surge after Memorial Day, and right when things started getting back under control, sure enough, two weeks after Labor Day (plus over 10% of the state under evacuation orders), things are spiking again. Obviously you can’t fault the 500k people who had to move at a moment’s notice and go to shelters or find friends or family to stay with in the face of natural disaster, but you can fault Greek Row at UO for throwing parties.
you mean those 500k people chose their family valuables over a box of masks?
I’m genuinely not trying to be blase about it. With that many people on the move, leaving their personal bubbles, packing into shelters and going through gas stations, supermarkets, etc, it’s inevitable there would be a spike from that. I’m not going to fault people who got told they have ten minutes to leave their house before it burns down if they weren’t able to fully prepare for pandemic conditions.
My last comment was 100% snark btw. Living in NorCal my whole life, I get it.
True. And to think, one year ago we were rated as the most prepared country on Earth for handling a pandemic. Unfortunately, what they didn’t factor in is that America is full of Americans.
Damn, I wish I could rec this about 100 million more times.
I recall Dr. Fauci stating that COVID-19 doesn’t exhibit seasonality so technically there will be no separate waves. It’s all one continuous unending wave. The wave will never end because Americans are too stupid to exercise self control and limit their behavior. Doesn’t that make you feel better?
I think they’ll have to do multiple bubbles for next season. There are 29 empty arenas to work with after all, and many other venues available if necessary.
Have 5-6 bubbles open at a time spread out across those 29 empty NBA arenas. Just plan for teams to switch bubbles every month. No arena will be used in consecutive months for sanitation purposes. Have the first 5 days of each month for travel and quarantine, and the last few days for potential makeup games. In between, each team plays roughly every other day.
Take a page from the Globetrotters. Get 6 teams to one location and have them play each other once or twice. Next, those 6 teams break up and go their separate ways to another location where a different group of teams play each other once or twice. 6 teams into rotating 5 bubbles. The issue is going to be fan attendance. There is zero point to traveling if fans can’t attend games in person.
I think you still have teams travel, even without the ability of fans in attendance. It breaks up some of the monotony for the players, who are mostly used to life on the road during the season. Also gives arena employees in all cities a chance for work.
It would increase the chances of infection rates, but I think the biggest hurdle would be having enough referees to stock all 5 bubbles.
Good point on the refs. You’d either have the same set of refs for each bubble, which could create conflicts, or you’re having the refs travel while teams stay in place, which isn’t really fair and probably wouldn’t get buy-in from the referees union.
I would assume you need at least 4-5 full sets of refs plus alternates both for variety and workload. Arenas would probably be playing 2-3 games per day at minimum if the rumors are true and the league wants a full 82 game schedule.
If there aren’t enough refs, they could certainly reduce the amount of live bubbles, but you need at least two in my opinion. I just shudder at the fact of 450 players stuck in one city for 4-5 months of regular season.
I would imagine the monotony of being on airplanes would be more burdensome than the monotony of being in Orlando for months. I’ve been to Orlando a couple of times, so I’m not using the example lightly.
Plus there’s the risk of infection inherent with traveling, you’re adding so many people into the mix, even peripherally, that I don’t think the two choices are comparable.
There have a been some hiccups with the bubble, but all things considered, the NBA has done a phenomenal job in getting it to work.
For me, honestly, the small joy of not having to see Lakers fans on television has made it all worthwhile.
But they are traveling using private planes, which is vastly different. They aren’t going through normal security check points, sitting for hours at gates with 100 randoms, etc.
I think the bigger issue would be hotel accommodations. Does the NBA rent out a whole hotel to maintain bubble status across multiple cities?
Ummm, we have been seeing Lakers fans on TV.
only if you watch ESPN
Do the displays along the sidelines showing the fans only show up on ESPN? I doubt that. I suspect I’m falling into a chasm here.
How about:
I could see that. Maybe set it up by division? Have the Northeast in NYC since they’ve got MSG, Barclays, plus all the different universities. Central in Chicago a la the All Star Game, Southeast could probably go back to Orlando. Put the Pacific Division in LA, the Northwest could be in Portland (what with Nike’s campus nearby), and the Southwest lands in Houston.
I think realistically the only way it works is you do what MLB did and scrap conferences and have the season be completely regional. The only problem is that isn’t as neat for basketball, like, the Northwest Division is a geographic mess. Portland really should be in the Pacific Division, punt Phoenix to the Southwest, but then you’d have to move Memphis to the Northwest to compensate. Maybe at that point, just rename the Northwest to the Midwest.
Just rename the Northwest Division to “Other” and you’re good.
Follow the NHL’s example & call it the Metroplitan Division (even though it’s an awful name).
Agreed. I don’t think there will be a normal season, with fans in attendance, anytime soon. I’m assuming the NBA is ahead of the curve in planning for the worst but hoping for the best. It will interesting to see how they handle next season, especially if they expect to start in January.
I don’t expect there to be fan attendance at all next season. In January there will be 400,000 dead and we’ll be in the middle of the combined covid/flu season with 2,000 deaths/day.
I think you’re underestimating society’s ability to look the other way. By that point we will have some level of rapid testing, and vaccines will have already been administered to health care workers and the portion of the population that’s most at-risk. The infection totals will probably be mindbogglingly high, and the long-term health ramifications will be ominous, but the mortality rate will be low enough that rich people will convince us that we must jeopardize our health to ensure that they don’t have to sell their second yacht to make ends meet.
Epidemiologists are estimating that the death rate will be 2000/day in the January time frame. Are you disputing that number or are you claiming that that number is “low”? Honest question, I can’t tell what you’re trying to say here. The NBA has been at the forefront of the major sports leagues and if the mortality rate is 2000/day as has been predicted I don’t think we’ll be seeing fan attendance under those conditiions.
There’s not going to be another bubble. There would be a revolt from players/coaches/GMs/owners/reporters if they tried to do it again. They’ll restart sometime in February with ~25% capacity, mandatory masks, and various other mitigation measures. There’s just no legitimate argument, from the owners’ perspective, to continue to burn through cash when other segments of the economy are reopening.
I suspect you’re right, although I’ll be interested to see how they determine which 25% of season ticket holders get to go to the game.
As to your comments on rapid testing and vaccines, I’m not entirely certain they’ll be in place, or they’ll possibly just be starting to be in place in the new year. Not sure you can count on that, really. And the mortality rate could very well climb again if the health care system is overwhelmed in certain areas (based on adding flu season to COVID season).
I mean, we might be back in a spot where the California teams aren’t allowed to have fans in the stands.
Hey, if the Clippers move to Inglewood, that’s like a half-day’s drive from Staples Center!
(not right now during the pandemic, though. Traffic has been mostly heavenly, relatively speaking)
KC doesn’t have a NHL team, so it could be an interesting option. Since San Diego doesn’t have a NBA or NHL team, I think it’d be an interesting option (though it probably wouldn’t happen due to opposition from the Lakers & Clippers).
Vegas paid $500M to join the NHL, but Seattle’s paying $650M to join the NHL. I’d expect that the NBA (& MLB) could charge at least $1B as an expansion fee.
Thanks for answering both my questions! With regards to the pods, they’ve basically replaced sports talk radio as my background music while working/working out theses days. There’s a surprisingly large amount of pods related to the Sacramento Kings, but for various reasons, the only ones I actually enjoy listening to are the ones that involve TKH writers. They have the right mix of realism, subject knowledge, and the occasional poor takes (Cole Anthony?!) to get my blood pumping.
Thanks for the article. A few questions. (1) why are you penciling in Bagley as part of a core going forward? I think he still has to prove it, especially considering how much money he’ll want, (2) why Tyrese Maxey at 12? I don’t think he can do what Marcus Smart does on defense and rebounding, and I wonder whether you are fooled by the illusion of his hair bounce. I think the Kings can get a backup pg at pick 35. (3) why Patrick Williams at 12? He was not very assertive in his freshman year off the bench. I bet Killian Tillie will be the better pro on both sides of the ball, and he is projected to go late first / early second.
To answer #3: I like Killian Tillie and I’m hopeful for him being a good pro. But after a knee surgery, a torn foot ligaments, a stress fractured ankle, sprained ankles and hip pointers, I fear that his talent will be hindered by his inability to stay healthy. He’s also a pretty terrible rebounder for his size. Patrick Williams is definitely a swing for upside. He’s big enough and quick enough to play multiple positions, he’s great at getting shots off the dribble and efficient at the rim with either hand while projecting to be a good spot-up shooter down the road. He’s also got above average passing vision and with the right team could become a good-to-very-good defender. Is any of it guaranteed? No, but McNair has tipped his hand saying he’s going to BPA with the most upside and I think Williams fits that bill rather well.
Patrick Williams seems like the homerun project pick the Spurs would take, who by chance are slotted right before us at the 11th spot. So I like the spirit of the pick, but if he kills it in predraft stuff (whatever that looks like for next season) I’d imagine he’s gone.
FWIWHam now has us taking Halliburton at #12:
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/2020-nba-mock-draft-170-projecting-first-round-picks-after-lottery
From what I’ve seen, I think he’d be a great pick at 12.
I think he’d be a great pick at #5
That would definitely be one of the best possible non-trade based outcome.
In his what, 50th mock draft? How may more mock drafts does he have left until he’s gone through the entire draft class?
Perhaps it has more to do with this year’s draft class. It appears there is a consensus top 9 which is relatively weak compared to other draft years. Then the next tier is about 30 deep (#10 through 40) which will cause skepticism for most guys proposed at #12 this year and absolute steals at #35 and #43. For every guy proposed at 12 I can find an interesting comp projected to be picked in the 2nd round. Take for example Tyrese Maxey vs Nate Hinton or Tre Jones or Naji Marshall. I agree with taking BPA at 12. Not sure who that would be.
Man, that’s the most flattering assessment of Williams I’ve seen. When I’ve watched him I’ve seen a surprisingly heavy-footed player with average athleticism and really mechanical/deliberate movements. I simply don’t see him as an especially high ceiling player.
I’m with you. I don’t see the upside on Williams other than his age.
I’m not sure if it’s wise to wonder aloud if the reason a person’s opinion differs from yours is because they are “fooled by the illusion of his hair bounce.” You’re essentially saying “I’m a wise man, and you are but a child who’s easily tricked by simple parlor games” while stroking your chin piece.
It’s not personal. I do think that type of hair bounce creates an illusion that the player is bouncier and more aggressive. It happens with me and I have to remind myself that it’s just the hair. It’s not an extension of the body. Maxey’s length is nowhere near Marcus Smart, yet I hear that comp. The stats are not even close either.
why not just discuss the merits of someone’s arguments instead of pondering if they’re simply mesmerized by hair? The vast majority of experts who study the draft for a living think Maxey is a prospect worthy of drafting somewhere in the 10-20 range. Does that mean they are also somehow fixated on his hair? If he had a shaved head would he be a consensus second rounder?
To be clear, I’m not even offering an opinion on Maxey. You could be right. I just don’t think that’s the type of thing one says when discussing a topic in good faith.
“…and I wonder whether you are fooled by the illusion of his hair bounce.”
You cannot be serious, man. If you want to say that people are overhyping Maxey’s defensive motor, that’s one thing, but don’t be insulting. Tyrese could be bald and still show off as one of the hardest working perimeter defenders in this class.
I’ll have pieces out in the next month about why Patrick Williams and Tyrese Maxey are two of my favorite picks at #12 – come disagree with me, but do it in good faith. Your draft takes routinely are coming from a virtual high horse, which immediately ruins any actual draft discussion you’re trying to have.
I’ll be interested to see your breakdowns. Those are both guys I tend to be lower on than the consensus. Personally, Maxey wouldn’t even be in the top 3 of my “6’3 guys that are likely to be available at #12” list.
Does Philly suck as a trade partner, tho?
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/09/28/report-76ers-stars-joel-embiid-and-ben-simmons-dont-get-along/
Bro.
I think I just entered the Matrix reading this post.
Refresh!! Refresh!!
(((super reference Klam)))
Makes my neck hurt just looking at it!
For some reason it makes me hungry for a catered meal.
I like to comment “worst Rick Roll ever my dude” on these, so I look like a dumbass once the original commenter edits the post.
My apologies if this something that we can’t afford (i haven’t paid too much attention to the Kings salary cap, NBA as a whole, etc.)
What would you guys think if they let Bogdan go and use that money to throw at Jerami Grant? Possible?
I’ve loved the idea of JG in a Kings uniform for awhile now. His fit in Denver is so good though, and the team’s potential is so high, my guess is he’d be happiest in Denver as a third option rather than on a basement dweller as the first or second.
Denver had $44.3M tied up in Millsap and Plumlee this season. JG is getting some of that for sure. I think he stays. He certainly seems happy there.
While we’re on the topic of Denver, I’m wondering if that wouldn’t be a landing spot for Boogie? The Malone reunion, plus I don’t think we’d see a replay of Jokic getting bullied again the way that Howard did him last series. I think the Nugs will want to address that.
I sure would enjoy seeing Cousins in a positive environment, and a chance to be a part of a winning culture. Depending on price and his health, it wouldn’t be a bad landing spot for him.
I could see Miami targeting DMC. They are going to have the cap space and are short on bigs next season.
I just don’t see Pat Riley being willing to take on the potential headache of DMC on the roster. And they have Adebayo.
I think we are about to see that they are undersized for the Lakers. I also think Adabeo would be better suited at a legit PF, not a C.
All true. I just think the risk of adding Cuz to that locker room is not worth it for them.
I guess I feel if anyone could handle him, it would be Riley, Spoles, and Butler. Pop would be the other one, but I think he is about done.
Although Malone got along with DMC I don’t think he would relish the thought of a reunion.
Oddly, Plumlee could be a good pickup on the cheap. I think he’s gone from being overrated/overpaid to being pretty heavily underrated. Obviously, it wouldn’t be my first choice for a move, but if they end up in a place where they need a backup C he isn’t a bad option. For example, I’d much rather have him than Len is the contracts are anywhere near comparable.
We’ve seen Alex Len up close and personal, and he played well. I guess if the plan is to snap up an economical big, maybe go with the devil you know.
That said, having Plumlee around for emergencies wouldn’t upset me that much.
My concern with Alex Len is that Walton will play a defensive player with limited offense over an offensive player with limited defense. And the result is talented players like Giles go to the bench and the product on the court is crap.
Is Len really all that good defensively? He’s a backup big that should be getting around 10 minutes per game, and that is about it.
It seems you need at least one of certain kinds of traits to be a successful big man in the current game:
1) A deep threat
2) A passing threat
3) Legit rim protector/defender
4) Play small
Len is neither of these things and the Kings don’t have a guy who fits one of those categories on the roster. Empty 20 and 10 dudes (Bagley?) are not the thing in today’s NBA.
20 points and 10 rebounds…Empty.
I don’t understand why they even keep stats for those things. They have nothing to do with the outcome of the game! They put guys with those averages in the Hall of Fame, just for being a huge part of their teams’ success!
This takes me back to people calling Rondo’s twelve assists per game “empty.” Doing a thing that leads directly to your team scoring a minimum of twenty-four points per game was deemed selfish by a lot of people. You don’t have to like Rondo or Bagley, but calling their numbers meaningless coveys an incomplete understanding of the cumulative effect of activities that facilitate scoring the ball.
No way to know if Bagley can stay healthy and excel, but I’d wager that if he can manage the former, he’ll absolutely do the latter.
Let the red thumbing begin!
What if the team, overall, scores more points per possession when Bagley is not on the court though? If his ability to score is so valuable, then one would assume that the team’s overall efficiency would increase when he’s on the court. That hasn’t been the case the last two seasons. Maybe that will change if Bagley ever actually becomes a 20 and 10 guy, but I think the onus is on you to explain why all the plus/minus stats are wrong to portray Bagley as a negative on the court in spite of his points and rebounds.
Admittedly, other than shot blocking, he needs a lot of work on defense, but given how bad Sacramento’s defense has been since…forever, I put less stock in plus/minus numbers, especially early on. Without a complete breakdown of who else was on the court with Bagley (please don’t do a breakdown), I don’t think that there’s a ton to be learned there. The team’s individual defenders are so generally so below average, that unless a guy’s defense completely sucks ass, the share of blame is equitable.
Thirteen games is crap sample size. 2018-2019 had Bagley minus-3-and-change on/off, which is probably closer to where he actually is. Then again, Joerger actually cared about defense, even if the team rarely performed it. I think once he’s free of Lose Walton’s influence, he can be, at worst, an average defender. He’ll never be a defensive anchor, but if he can manage competence with a 20/10, everything else is gravy.
I’m just saying you can’t presume that if a player averages X points, and Y rebounds, then that’s indisputable proof that the team benefits from said player’s contribution. The goal, as I’m sure you know, is to outscore the opposing team. An individual player’s impact cannot be distilled down to the number of points and rebounds they average.
I think Bagley has a lot of flaws, but I’m skeptical of +/- as a stat.
I think it’s ok to be skeptical of it in small samples, like most statistics.
I’m not talking about raw +/-. I’m talking about the advanced player +/- stats like BPM, RPM, PIPM, etc. Those all try to isolate the individual player’s contribution (per 100 possessions) on offense and defense.
Ah. I’ve heard of those stats, but I’m not sure how they’re calculated.
Enes Kanter and Jahlil Okafor are good examples of guys that are “20/10 guys” that don’t do much else. The only reason they don’t actually put up 20/10 is because they don’t get enough minutes. They don’t get enough minutes because they don’t do anything else. Bagley will be a “20/10 guy” if he gets enough minutes. But that doesn’t mean that will be an especially good thing for the Kings.
The 20 requires context, the 10 is generally solid. Cousins scored 20 regularly, but he did it so inefficiently and at such high volume that the overall offense had a ceiling.
And the problem with Rondo was you were defending him after the injuries, when he, well…he wasn’t good. It wasn’t the 12 assists, it was the olé defense,
Even the 10 rebounds requires context when you have guys like Drummond who grab a ton of rebounds but basically refuse to leave the key on defense so they give up a ton of open perimeter shots.
Ultimately, you don’t see a ton of 20/10 guys in the NBA that aren’t good because guys with the ability to go 20/10 but do it inefficiently and/or without contributing in other ways generally don’t get enough minutes to do it.
If it takes him a lot of shots to score 20 points, that isn’t all that valuable.
No. Len is an average defender at the absolute most. He’s a perfectly fine guy to have as a 3rd C on the cheap. But he isn’t someone to worry about holding onto or pin any hopes for real impact on.
I hadn’t noticed Walton valuing defense over offense at all. I know it’s not accurate, but under oath I’d swear opponents shot 70% from three last season.
I mean, it’s hard to say with the Kings talent.
he only played Giles when everyone else was injured. Therefore don’t sign bigs with no game so that Walton must play bigs who do have game.
I’ve seen as much of Plumlee as Len. Plumlee is a significantly better player.
Len played well above his career norms for 225 minutes. Plumlee’s been a better player playing in important games over the course of his career.
Len’s the “break glass in case of emergency” guy in this comparison.
As usual, we’re a year or two late on Grant. We could have had him on the relative cheap in a trade. Now we’d have to vastly overpay on long deal and he probably still wouldn’t accept. We have to look for the NEXT Jerami Grant.
In-Demand FAs simply aren’t a viable pathway for talent acquisition for the Kings right now.
I wonder if we can grab Gary Harris and a pick for Barnes.
I’m not sure I see that from their end. Porter and Grant would clearly be ahead of Barnes in his role and Barnes contract is bigger and longer.
I’m not sure either, but I think a team in the Nuggets’ position might be looking for cheap ways to upgrade. Harris has been pretty bad the last couple years. Especially this past year.
Barnes’ contract is only $3M more than Harris’ next year, and then nearly identical the following year. He does have the extra year, but at $18M for a 31 year old Barnes isn’t that bad (if salaries at least trend slightly up overall). And by that point he’s an expiring.
Heck, Grant only started about a third of Denver’s games this year. You add a useful player in Barnes (in my opinion), and take out a negative out of the rotation in Harris… I think it’s worth the 22nd pick in this years draft for them to do that…
If he stays, I’ll bet he starts a higher percentage of games next season
For sure. Just pointing out (not very well) that the Nuggets could use some depth. Harris played 31 mpg last season and he was pretty terrible.
I guess I just don’t see a world where Barnes is among their top choices to acquire.
Maybe, but I would expect Porter will get most of those starts. unless you want to go small-ish and start both.
What do we know about Porter’s long term health concerns? Do they feel like that back is an ongoing issue?
I’m sure they’re wary of it and I’m not in the Denver training room, but he hasn’t seemed to have been limited by it for quite a while and when on the floor his athleticism has been on full display.
I wasn’t completely up to speed on him pre-draft, but it sounded like people saw it as a ticking time bomb (sort of like DeJuan Blair).
Dude looked impressive as hell physically in the bubble, though.
I mean, back injuries are scary. And once you have them they’re rarely ever put fully behind you. That’s how a #1 talent falls to 14. Similar to Giles, really. Except Giles injuries mounted and have noticeably sapped his athleticism. So far, that doesn’t look like the case for Porter.
Letting Bogi go wouldn’t open up any additional room to sign Grant. The Kings will be over the cap either way, so their main spending tool will be the MLE, around $9 million.
I worry about Bogi’s health going forward which makes me lean toward favoring a sign and trade.
I think moving Bogdan is likely to be in the cards. The question is if you S&T now, or deal him later down the road. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not sure any current Kings are likely to be on the next good Kings roster. And Fox is the only one I’d give any real chance at all.
I’d prefer the playmaker. That’s Bogi.
Let’s go get Turner. In all honesty, I see G.S. landing one of Oladipo and/or Turner by trading their #2 and Wiggins, which would absolutely suck for the rest of the league.
If Oladipo truly wants out, Buddy is a good replacement for him. Make it happen, Monte!
Yeah, a Buddy for Turner swap would be perfect. Indy would need to send an additional contract or two, but it could happen.
Buddy for Turner and Leaf works numbers wise.
Why mess around?
To IND
Hield
SAC 2020 1st (#12)
BOS 2020 1st (#26)
To BOS
Turner
Bogdanovich
To SAC
Hayward
Oladipo
Goga
2020 MEM 1st (#14) via BOS
2020 MIL 1st (#30) via BOS
So a sign and trade of Bogi?
That is putting a lot of eggs in one basket as Hayward (likely to opt in) and Oladipo would both be in their final year of their deals
Ya, agree. If we’re getting 2021 1sts? I’d think about it.
Worst case scenario you come out with Goga, an extra 2020 1st, and two big expirings to move at the deadline or after the season when A LOT of teams will be scrambling to create cap space for 2021 FA.
That said, yeah, turn the #30 into a 2021 or 2022 1st.
Man, that is a ton of serious injury history the Kings would be taking on.
I’m a Hayward redemption project believer. His shot wasn’t really falling in the conference finals, but that’s not exactly unexpected after the time he missed. I saw him whip this pass on a side out of bounds play to (I think) Jaylen Brown for a wide open corner three, and I started imagining scenarios in which he grabs a defensive rebound and chucks one-handed outlet passes to guys sprinting in transition. Obviously, the injury history is a concern, but you’re really only doing the trade for the assets attached. Any actual benefits Hayward can provide would be a bonus.
Here’s the play I was referring to. That’s basically a 45 foot pass thrown in the perfect spot so that only Brown can catch it. That’s the type of skill that could really improve this team’s transition offense.
He would obviously add a lot to the half court offense as well.
For sure. He basically had the highest efficiency for any player in isolation last season (>50 Isolation possessions). One would think that’s the type of thing one would think McNair would covet.
Hayward was far more effective when in Utah. The offense was running through him. In Boston, he’s surrounded by way too many people that need the ball in their hands. Brown, Kemba, Tatum, and ball hog Smart. Hayward is an afterthought. Hayward really opens up the floor and does so many things. Even when not scoring. With this lineup, it takes some of the pressure off Fox to be the man. Oladipo and Hayward would be the primary scorers. If Fox can develop a consistent 3pt shot, it would look quite effective. Not sure, he would pass up opting in for all that money waiting for him.
Buddy, Barnes, AND Bagley for Turner and Dipo; pick up a SF & PF somewhere.
Fox
Dipo
Whoever
Whoever
Turner
Re-sign Bogi to play the SF, draft a SF at #12, and slot Holmes next to Turner. Works for me.
I don’t feel like we’re really applying the McNair Rule here though.
They’re in the East and we won’t see them until the 2028 NBA Finals. All good.
I say that because I don’t know why the Pacer would value Bagley or Barnes enough to say yes to it. I also don’t think Hield is a great fit since nobody on that team is really an ideal primary ball handler. They have guys like Brogdon and Sabonis that can do some playmaking, not enough IMO. And I think we saw that play out over the season.
I’ve been seeing Oladipo to the Warriors lately, and I just don’t see how it makes sense for them given the injury issues. They’ve still got Klay coming back and who knows what condition he’ll be in.
I think they’d prefer to get Turner as opposed to Oladipo. The scary thing is, they could potentially get both with the Wiggins deal and the #2 pick. They could toss in Kevon Looney and an additional future pick to round out the numbers. A Curry, Oladipo, Klay, Green, Turner lineup might be the best in the league.
WOW
Luke for a highly protected 2nd? MAKE IT HAPPEN Monte!
Holy cow
Documento Kings
Ha!!! Why not just hire Rivers and demote Walton to assistant coach. No need to hire a new assistant coach…profit!
Vivek: “Monte, I have an idea.”
McNair: “Before you finish, the answer is no.”
Vivek: “No…hear me out. What if we hire Doc Rivers as a coaching advisor?”
McNair: Let’s for sure talk to Doc.
Vivek: Is he like Klay, or is he like Draymond?
McNair: (((sigh)))
Doc probably won’t be out of a job long.
Teams will pick a superstar player over a coach every. single. time.
I hope Doc takes a season off to rest his voice. If he does, mark my words, he’ll sound just like Pierce Brosnan.
Kevin O’Connor said on the ringer nba show the Doc firing was a Ballmer decision, and Lawrence Frank fought to keep Doc as the coach. Just a little tidbit I found interesting since the role of the owner in basketball operations has been a topic of conversation around here recently.
Ballmer wasn’t going to be OK with getting Kawhi and PG, and missing the WCFs.
A dismissive sweaty chap?!
What about Naji Marshall at #12? The Stepien did a full analysis of his game and he seems to offer a lot of versatility on both sides of the ball. Defends multiple positions. Has handles, passes, finishes at the rim, rebounds, long arms. An argument can be made that his 3-point shot is better when he does not have to carry the offense. seems like he has a decent floor and a pretty high ceiling.
This is like if you have a $10 bill and a $1 bill in your pocket, and you just decide to give the cashier the ten when purchasing top ramen that costs a dollar, and say “keep the change.”
Not really. What you are trying to say is Naji Marshall will be available at pick 35? Not necessarily. Who among the wing defenders in this draft class have the playmaking skills of a guard and his finishing ability at the rim with either hand? Factor in the team need for playmakers and I think it’s worth consideration.
what I am trying to say is that nobody in their right mind would draft Marshall at #12 even if they believe he has the potential to be a top 12 player. Any competent GM would be capable of ensuring they could secure the draft rights to Marshall without drafting him with the #12 pick. This isn’t that complicated.
I said the Kings need playmakers, not plague makers.
There’s a pretty strong chance Marshall will be available as an UDFA.
The cash strapped teams in the late 1st round like Philly (21st pick), Milwaukee (24th), Boston (26th, 30th), Lakers (28th) all could be had for relatively cheap. So if the Kings were enamored with Marshall and were worried he doesn’t make it to the 35th pick, they could pretty easily trade a couple minor assets to buy into the late 1st round. They do have a shit ton of 2nd round picks after all.
OT: Not my choice, but I’ll give McNair the benefit of the doubt. I am glad to see he has hit the ground running and getting right to draft prospects.
Achiuwa has talked to many different teams. Good on him trying to raise his draft stock.
It’s funny when simple due diligence exceeds my expectations.
I don’t think it really matters one way or the other, but I’d be interested to know the timing of the call. Technically the draft process started before McNair was hired, so it’s possible that Dumars (or some other member of the FO) did some interviews while he was the interim GM.
Here’s some more info. It appears as though he did the interviews before McNair was hired:
Tangentially, the reports of Tyrell Terry having put on a few inches and a decent amount of muscle (verified by some recent gym footage) make him reeeaaaalllllyyyy interesting to me. If he’s really 6’3, 174 as reported instead of the 6’1, 150-ish reported last year, then he may very well be my top PG-sized guy in the draft. We’ll see if it shoots him up the boards.
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