Welcome back to Chainmail! On Wednesday afternoon, minutes before our mailbag was to be published, the Sacramento Kings announced that Monte McNair of the Houston Rockets would be taking over the team’s basketball operations. We put out a call for questions on Twitter, and many folks responded, so most of our questions will generate from that venue, although a few still-relevant queries remain from the original mailbag.
Before we get into your questions, we do want to thank our sponsor for the mailbag, Carter Imports! Carter Imports is a Sacramento-based company that imports some of the very best Extra Virgin Olive Oil and Cretan Thyme Honey available in the world today. There has never been a better time to support one of our own than right now!
Now, let’s jump into some questions, shall we?
From Anthony Cardenas
“Selling high on Richaun Holmes would be smart. How much do you think he’s worth on the trade market? Do you wait until mid-season when a contender comes calling?
Tim: I do agree that dealing away all of the quality veterans, Richaun Holmes included, would be a smart maneuver for the Kings. As far as his value is concerned, it’s probably lower than most in the Kingdom would like to believe. Holmes is an okay starting center and a good backup for a contender, but how easy are those guys to get in free agency? Pretty easy. I would be thrilled if we could send Holmes to Boston for the 30th pick, but I would also settle for a decent young prospect or even a second rounder in the 31-35 range. I would shop Holmes at the draft, although his value may be higher at the deadline when contenders are looking to add a final piece or two.
Will: Unfortunately, Richaun Holmes’ value has pretty much stagnated since the start of this year and I don’t think the Kings are going to be able to get more than a heavily protected future first or a few second rounders for Holmes. Now part of that might be my brain still planning for a Vlade style trade: what Monte McNair can do with assets will be the biggest question early in his tenure. If he can hold off till the trade deadline and wait to see which team really needs a center for their squad due to unforeseen injury, a low first rounder might be worth for a team a piece away for a championship.
From Sackings12
“Who’s the first person to be traded?
Tim: Buddy Hield seems like a very, very likely candidate, especially if the Kings are looking to keep Luke Walton for at least the next season. It’s not a player, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see the 12th pick moved in favor of young talent like Myles Turner, Lonzo Ball, or Aaron Gordon.
Will: I wouldn’t be surprised now if it’s Bogdan Bogdanovic in a sign-and-trade for something small like a trade exception. The Kings won’t be in the mood for letting assets go freely and Bogdanovic could easily be the guy who sees the writing on the wall about where this team (and his starting job) might be headed. If he wants out, there’s a chance he wants to leave on good terms and give the Kings a little something for his time in Sacramento. Sign-and-trades aren’t the industry they once were but that doesn’t me the Kings don’t get draft compensation or a trade exception to be used later.
From Kevin Lam
“Favorite nickname you’ve seen for McNair?”
Tim: Easily McNair Jordan.
Will: I’m partial to The Full Monte, mostly because it’s a positive that can be turned into The Fool Monte if he ends up being more like Peter D than Daryl Morey.
From the worst English major probably
“What do we think some good first-year goals and accomplishments for McNair might be?”
Tim: Over the next year, McNair needs to be given the green light to figure out exactly who is going to be a part of this core moving forward, and who is going to be cannon fodder in trades. The 2020-2021 season should probably be looked at as a bit of a lost year for Kings fans, as our new GM isn’t going to magically fix things over night. My guess is that a player or two is dealt away this offseason, while several others are shipped off around the trade deadline. If McNair can shed some bad salary, obtain assets or young players, and help this team discover an identity moving forward, that will be a pretty good first twelve months.
Will: The first year goal for the Kings should really be acquiring as many young assets as they can while getting themselves as close to salary cap as they can. I’m worried zero percent about culture or a style of play in this first year because Luke Walton is presumed to return for a final tour of duty and as such, won’t be someone to build the culture that is needed anyways. Get young guys and draft assets for everyone not named Fox, try to get below the cap so that you can take a bloated contract for further assets and then by this time next year, find a head coach that is willing to grow with the team and develop the young guys he has. The identity won’t come until the coach does and that won’t be till next off-season.
From Rodrigo de Brum
“Will McNair try to replicate the small-ball Rockets with the Kings?”
Tim: Not necessarily. Here’s a quote from McNair in 2017 regarding the space-and-pace era of the NBA: “I think teams are moving towards space-and-pace, or whatever you want to call it, but I think there’s room in the game for post players. As people move away from one type of player, then maybe that just creates an inefficiency where another team can take advantage.”
That doesn’t sounds like a guy who’s committed to only one style of building a team or only one style of playing basketball. With his analytics background, I’m sure McNair appreciates the value of threes, free throws, and layups, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll replicate the Rockets with the Kings, although I do hope his modern look at the game heavily influences the team’s drafting strategy and stays away from Vlade Divac’s habits.
Will: The Rockets version of small ball is predicated entirely on the play of James Harden. The Kings have no one in the same solar system as that man, so try to rest a little easier knowing that they physically couldn’t play that way if someone told them to. Remember, Monte worked for the Rockets well before D’Antoni and this current hyper small ball team, when they had Kevin McHale and JB Bickerstaff coaching. They evolved into their current style to fit their star player and the cap space around him.
From Sac Scores Ball Club
“How concerned do I need to be about Dumars’ involvement? Right now, I’m panicking.”
Tim: First, let me say that no matter what you think of the Dumars situation, it shouldn’t affect your opinion of the McNair hire itself. The Kings got themselves a highly qualified General Manager. With that being said, unlike several other staff members here at TKH, I am mildly concerned about Dumars place within the organization.
My worries stem from two places: Dumars himself and his role. We saw the immediate national media push for Dumars to take over the Kings once Vlade Divac resigned, and I think everyone can theorize where those leaks originated.
The other part of the equation that makes me uncomfortable is Vivek Ranadive’s history with big name advisors. We saw what happened when Vlade Divac usurped power from Pete D’Alessandro. We saw what happened when Joe Dumars usurped power from Vlade Divac. Now, if Dumars had reported into Monte McNair as an advisor, I would feel perfectly serene, but that’s not the case. The Kings are creating a situation of potential chaos by having two different basketball minds report to the owner. What happens when McNair wants to make one call, Dumars wants to make another, McNair is given the power to make the choice, but Dumars ends up being right? That’s a recipe for a power struggle under Vivek Ranadive’s management style. Could this all work out wonderfully? Absolutely, but I can’t blame anyone for being concerned about Ranadive seemingly repeating past mistakes.
Will: I can’t really blame anyone for being concerned about this, but I also struggle to react that strongly to it either. I think Vivek is always going to need to have a guy to explain the world of basketball to him and one that can operate independently from his other employees. He wants a voice separate from the people actively trying to win trades or feeling the heat of losing games etc. Accepting that’s just how he wants things, I’m more happy that it’s Dumars than terrified of Dumars suddenly wanting more.
Also, Monte McNair isn’t an idiot. He’s coveted by other teams, he would have absolutely gotten another job as an NBA GM if the Kings hadn’t chosen him. It seems far-fetched to me that he 1) didn’t previously know about the Kings executive turnover, 2) did no research on the Kings various woes beforehand and 3) during the course of three interviews didn’t get a crystal clear picture of Dumar’s role and how it would affect his job. That doesn’t mean that the Kings were necessarily truthful, but McNair chose Sacramento as much as they chose him.
From RORDOG
Based on fit with Fox, pick your favorite: player(s) in the draft, free agent target, and realistic trade target/scenario
Tim: De’Aaron Fox needs sharpshooters and strong perimeter defenders around him, and Devin Vassell trends toward the elite in both of those skills. He’s a little on the shorter and lighter side at 6’7″ and 190 pounds, but his plus-wingspan and motor should make up for those minor deficiencies. If Vassell is gone by #12 on draft night, which seems very likely, Tyrese Maxey is an excellent guard defender who shot poorly from deep in college, although many draft experts believe his shot will eventually translate. Maxey is tough and not afraid to get in an opponent’s face, and that sort of Marcus Smart attitude would be a valuable add to a roster full of nice guys.
From a free agent perspective, assuming we aren’t talking about retaining our own former players, Aron Baynes would be a nice backup center for the Kings, especially if the new front office looks to move Nemanja Bjelica. He’s not the elite shooter that Bjelica is, but he’s a center who can space the floor and pair nicely with Marvin Bagley on the offensive end of the floor. I also wouldn’t mind taking a look at Kris Dunn, who is a much better, much younger version of Cory Joseph.
As far as trade targets are concerned, I don’t necessarily think we should be looking at fit with De’Aaron Fox, as this team needs to simply gather assets and young players for their overpaid, average veterans. I fully support dealing away Buddy Hield, Nemanja Bjelica, and Richaun Holmes, while also looking at the market for Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, and Cory Joseph, although those last three will be much harder to trade.
Will: Based specifically on how they fit with Fox, I think that Saddiq Bey is probably the best fit overall for someone who I project to be available. He’s built to be a good-to-great defender, has a good shot with a quick release and brings a really nice mixture of size and overall agility to the mix. He also has shown a growing ability to attack off the dribble and make reads in a pick and roll that would take a bit of pressure off the primary playmaker, whoever that is. I would also like to throw in an honorable mention for Aleksej Pokusevski, just based on how I see Murray-Jokic playing right now in the playoffs. Obviously Fox isn’t the shooter that Murray is and Jokic has a much thicker frame, but the Kings and Fox could deal with a big man with high level passing instincts and Poku is the one attainable at that spot.
In trying to keep with forcing this team to go young, I dashed my immediate thoughts of a Pat Connaughton or a Bryn Forbes for both being the ripe old age of 27. They’re two year old iPhones and I’m an unruly 15 year old in this scenario. So getting someone more closely in line with the Kings core that might be attainable: Derrick Jones Jr., a high flying 6’6 guard/forward currently coming off the bench for the Heat. Is he a great three point shooter? No. But in a situation where the Kings wind up trading or losing one or both of their guards, I think he’s a guy who can come in and produce as a 7th man or spot starter. He’s been able to maintain a career 51% field goal percentage while only shooting 28% from deep, and most of that is because he is constantly tossing down massive dunks when he gets even a breath of space. He’d fill what I assume will end up being a need and in a season that is almost assuredly lost already, he’s gonna get himself on highlight reels across America every few nights – he’s fun and the Kings are gonna need as much of that as they can handle.
The most realistic trade scenario that I can think of? At least one of the second rounders is going away for cash. The Kings are hiring, which means they’ve fired or will fire a bunch more people. The Kings will need to pay for those people to get the hell out, so they’re sending out picks for a cash call baby! If it’s between that or watching a Vlade-helmed, Luke Walton run team, they can sell me while they’re at it as well.
From Jlandweh
Due to the abundance of 2nd Round Picks, who are some potential 2nd round picks that you are intrigued by and why?
Tim: He’s been a common theme within the Kings community, but Malachi Flynn at 35 feels like a great pickup for Sacramento. He’s a really smart pick-and-roll facilitator and an engaged defender, and I think he’ll be a really solid backup in the NBA for a very long time. Isaiah Joe is a guy who could go late in the first round or late in the second, but he’s a guy who might turn into a rotational wing if he’s given the right development. The 53rd pick is a bit of a throwaway, but Deni Avdija’s point guard Yam Madar could be a good draft-and-stash prospect. He’s not a shooter in the least, but he’s a hard-nosed defender who can set up his teammates nicely as well.
Will: Because the second round is always a crapshoot on who is going to be there and especially with the Kings having multiple picks, I’m just going to run through some names that I’m fairly high on. I’d be more than happy to see the Kings grab Tyler Bey, who could be a defensive forward with a bit of a shot, even if they grab Saddiq Bey as their first rounder. I think Killian Tillie’s offensive polish is too hard to pass up if he’s there for the Kings and though he might actually be cursed, bringing him to Sacramento might mean the injury demon in Marvin Bagley’s foot could have to leave to make room for Tillie’s so, two-birds-one-stone situation there. I’m also really high on Cassius Stanley, who is a freak athlete (like all-time great level even), and has shown flashes of star potential at Duke, but needs to be slow-walked through the system that he gets brought into. He could be a Gerald Wallace for a new generation of Kings fans, only this time, we let him stick around long enough to become a stud for us.
From Kangzville
The new General Manager probably won’t be attached to the players since he didn’t acquire them, so I think Bogdan Bogdanovic might be headed for the exits. If that’s the case, what’s the best Bogi sign and trade deal you can think of?
Tim: So before I dive into specific sign-and-trade deals for Bogdanovic, as that’s the only way to garner value if the Kings don’t have a desire to retain him, I want to talk about the difficulty of sign-and-trades and why they’re so rare in the NBA. The easiest way to execute a deal with that structure is to find a team with cap space, as the rules are pretty simple at that point. The receiving team would absorb Bogi into their cap space and would send assets in exchange for the Kings not matching their offer. However, there are only a few teams with cap space in the league this offseason, and they likely have their sight set a bit higher than Bogdanovic’s services.
From a non-cap perspective, things get a little tricky. When an over-the-cap team signs a player via Bird rights (which is what would happen for Bogdanovic), the transaction then becomes subject to Base Year Compensation. Without getting too buried in details, that means that the team acquiring Bogdanovic would need to send out near-matching salary, but the Kings would only be allowed to take back salary equal to his old contract ($8.5 million) or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For example, if the Phoenix Suns wanted to sign Bogi to a four-year, $55 million deal, they would need to send out approximately $13.8 million in salary, but the Kings could only absorb $8.5 million, leaving a gap of about $5 million. The teams would either need to include additional players to fill the gap, or compensate a third team with cap space to take on the remaining salary.
Oooooookay, so as far as trades are concerned, only contenders or wannabe contenders who need a swiss army knife of a role player will want Bogi’s services, so I’m going to propose a trade that I also shouted out at the trade deadline. I’m sending Bogdanovic to New Orleans in exchange for Lonzo Ball, who is reportedly on the trade block. Despite his poor reputation with Kings fans, Ball was actually a slightly better shooter from deep than Bogi this year, and his ability to facilitate and defend at a higher level makes him an attractive return for Sacramento, especially with his age lining right up with De’Aaron Fox. He’s also making a little over $11 million next year, so his salary should be somewhat close to what Bogdanovic will receive, making the deal slightly easier to consumate.
Will: Honestly, I’m with Tim on this one. I liked the idea of something with Indiana and trying to get back Myles Turner, but with the rumors that they might end up with D’Antoni as coach, I doubt they get rid of a versatile big just yet. Ball is an elite passer, improved shooter and his ability to play make with Fox would add a great wrinkle to this squad. Lavar Ball’s time in the spotlight seems to have waned and Ball’s reliance on his dad is dead so, with just the player left to observe, Bogi for Ball would be about as good as you could ask for. Plus, it’s the best possible outcome for Greg’s “Lonzo ducking Fox” meme.
From MichaelMack
My take on the leaking to the press about Walton’s job was that he was safe to start the season. Unless he spends the entire off season watching tape on his ineptitude, its hard to imagine him coming into next season with trying to cement players into their specific roles and better game management and match up skills. How long do you think Walton lasts into the season? Do you think there are any names of coaches recently separated from their team that might excite ownership, such as Donovan? Atkinson?
Tim: Assuming that Walton doesn’t turn things around, which doesn’t feel likely, I think he’s probably gone by the All-Star break. That will save the Kings money, as they will just move one of the assistants into an interim role, rather than naming a full-time head coach, and it will also allow Monte McNair to say he gave Walton a chance, but it just didn’t work out. The Kings will have a new head coach at the start of the 2021-2022 season.
Will: With next season’s Kings squad headed towards another lottery pick, I think we should come to grips with the Kings not firing Luke until at least the All-Star Break, with a decent shot that he goes the distance. With COVID-19 altering the basketball landscape in uncountable ways, sticking with the anchor that going to get you to a decent pick in a deep 2021 Draft isn’t necessarily a bad deal, just bad television. Assuming that Monte McNair is forward thinking and aiming to develop a young team around Fox and Bagley, their potential hiring list for coaches is likely to go into the college ranks as well as lead assistants and former head coaches, so waiting a year for them to really feel Corona pinch their wallets might end up getting a higher level of candidate being more easily persuaded.
As for your names suggested, I don’t think Donovan wants to develop a team. I think he’s tasted the playoffs enough in his time that he’s looking for an established team that needs a different direction. Atkinson would be one of my favorites for the job as he was one of the few I wanted before Joerger was hired. I also want to call my shot here and say that if David Vanterpool doesn’t have a coaching gig when the Kings come calling he’s going to be a favorite to get it. He’s known as a relationship builder, gym rat and culture builder (known once as The Dame Whisperer) and is known for being a modern, defensive coach.
I really liked the idea of trading for Ball.. Him and Fox at the backcourt would be like what it looks like having Fox and Haliburton.
As for the draft, it looks like Buddy is good as gone and the Kings should draft his replacement and I lean towards Aaron Nesmith. Good size, good defender and an excellent shooter.
Agree on trading most of our guys including Bogi, Buddy and Holmes. Go young and give more minutes to the rookies for development purposes and tank purposes (2021 is a deep draft and having a chance to draft a Jalen Green, Boston or if we are lucky a Cade Cunningham) and we should be good heading into 2021-2022 season.
I know there’s a slim chance Walton gets fired before the season, but if Vivek fully supports Mcnair and he decides a coaching change is really needed and not wait for next year, Jerry Stackhouse is my bet or even Vanderpool.
Not so high on Donovan and there is probably 0 chance he comes to Sac
I agree with the Ball idea, but I’m not sure why the Pels make that deal. Ball is young and fits their timeline with Zion. I think the Kings would need to send additional compensation as Ball is younger and better than Bogi, but I don’t think McNair is about to send future picks.
A team I could see wanting Bogi is Memphis. I could see something like Bogi for for Kyle Anderson and an asset. I feel that’s a bit more realistic in terms of asset evaluation.
There were rumors that the Pels are looking to trade Ball (I don’t blame them, Ball looks horrific in the bubble) and if the Pels are still looking to go all-in next season they might want to add shooters alongside Zion and B.I.. It would be funny if we trade back Buddy to the Pels for Ball + Salary filler. Probably won’t happened but would be hilarious if it does.
No decent FO is going to make any major decisions based on 8 games in the bubble. And I think Griffin and Langdon are a decent FO.
Yeah, if the Pels are truly looking to trade Ball, it’s gonna be for quality assets. I could see them swindling the Knicks in that way, especially if the Knicks miss out on the younger Ball.
I’m still thinking about exactly how much of a Godfather offer the Knicks would have to offer for Fox to force the FOs hand.
By the way, I think you got that email the other day because I @’d you in a comment. But when I hit post, it showed your real name. So I edited the @ out. It would be a nice feature if it didn’t show the name.
I hope McNair is thinking the same thing.
I keep going back to Fox and Buddy for the #8, 2021 unprotected 1st rounder, Robinson, Ntilikina, and expirings.
Hopefully Kings can get Haliburton at #8, Vassell at #12 and that 2021 is a top 5 pick to go along with the Kings own top 5 pick.
Clean slate for McNair to rebuild in a solid draft.
If there’s a deal involving fox, I have to say, that’s a pretty solid one.
how about Bagley instead of Fox though.
maybe the knicks don’t do that.
I mean, obviously Bagley wouldn’t bring back anything approaching that type of return. And the entire concept is that New York may overpay because they’re desperate for a PG.
Yeah it seems like today’s NBA is all about taller wings that can shoot over most defenders, aren’t afraid of contact, and heck many are lockdown defenders also.
What do you expect from McNair’s first offseason with the Kings?
With Vivek still has his grimey paws on everything? Not much.
Full Monte everyday until the FO pays attention. Look, GS does not want that 2nd pick. They are recalibrating. I can’t see them investing in a rookie. I think they trade the pick for pieces that fit now.
GS’ window is still open with their foundation. Give them Bagley and our 12th for their 2nd. Hell through a late 2nd rounder to sweeten the deal. We need that pick 2nd pick. Wiseman is our center of the future. Trust me on this. Wiseman will need a solid coach and more of an understanding of the game and what he can do. That will come with time.
Trade Buddy and Barnes to Philly for Harris, Richardson, and their 21st. Now, we can trade the 21st pick for more star power, or pick up the Achiawa kid…I know, I said this before. No rush on this kid at all though. He’s raw. He’ll sit for a few years in a way…similar to how DeAndre Jordan rode the bench a few years. G-League him. Let him tear it up. Kid has nice upside. The idea is to develop someone here.
Trade our 35th pick for a scoring/playmaking 2 guard. I like Denzel Valentine in this role. I know I may he missing someone, but we need this type of guy off the bench to help CoJo set up and possibly run the offense. Use CoJo’s skillset. When he is in the game, he is to lock down the opponent’s backcourt scoring threat. Richardson is our lockdown defender for our starting lineup. Everyone else is average or above on defense so we can hide Bogi on defense.
I would like to retain either Len or Giles, but they are more than likely gone. HUGE miss on Giles. We do retain Bazemore and Parker though. They CAN be glue pieces. Sign Bogi at a reasonable price. He will be traded within the next 1-2 seasons. Let him loose and advertise him, so we can get value back for him. San Antonio I am talking to you.
Our team now looks consistent and deep. We look threatening.
Fox, Joseph, Guy (2 way)
Bogi, Valentine or better, James
Richardson, Bazemore, Jeffries
Harris, Parker, Bjelly, Achiawa/project (2way)
Holmes, Wiseman
We have fillers for the 5, when Holmes and/or Wiseman gets in foul trouble. Our line ups now are versatile and more defensively solid. We have enough to hide weakness until those weaknesses are eliminated. With the right coach (DONOVAN!!!!!!!) that rotation looks hungry. Plus, Donovan gets the most out of his players; see OKC with and without KD & Westbrook.
Then we slowly look to move Bazemore, Bjelly, Holmes, and Bogi…eventually Harris, but I look at Harris as a legit scorer and playmaker on the block. We can work with that for a couple of years. Chris Webber lite????? He provides spacing as well. Something Bagley hasn’t shown he can do yet.
The hope is that Guy, James, Jeffries (who I think already is), and Achiawa develop into the solid role players we need. One will need to make a huge leap…first man off the bench or starter. There are also other pieces we could add. Jeremy Grant would look good in purple. Pry away Trent Jr. from Portland. We need another shooter coming off the bench if Bjelly isn’t in the game.
The starting 5 and the potential of a good 2nd unit makes us look respectable while we add and subtract pieces. If planned probably, we’ll be in the WCF in 3 yrs. 4 at the max. Or, our players buy, make seeing Sacramento on the schedule one of those circle games (dangerous), and beast our way to the WCFs before then. Also, that is the most ego-less team I see. They could become a unit. Other organizations have their ways of continously providing a respectable franchise. WhyTF can we not have “The Sactown Way”. We deserve this shit.
I’m ridiculously loyal to this team. I am a lunatic.
I don’t think the Sixers have enough non-Simmons/Embiid assets to get me to take on that Harris contract.
I don’t think G.S. is gonna want Bagley. They’d want a proven player for that #2. I could see them targeting Myles Turner with at #2. To make salaries work I could see the #2, Wiggins and filler for Turner and Oladipo. G.S. might then be a lock for the title.
I don’t see it either. He doesn’t add anything they need. At least targeting someone like Turner or Oladipo gives them present impact AND make them a bit younger. Both those guys are kinda perfect for them in different ways. I’d say Dipo might do a bit more for them since Draymond is moving out of his perimeter defending days. He’s a pretty good slightly-shorter facsimile of Iggy.
Yeah, they could even just slide Klay over to the 3 and have Green and Turner protect the paint. A starting five of Curry, Dipo, Klay, Green, Turner would be near unstoppable, IMO.
Though I’m not sure how they get both of those guys and make the numbers work. That’s, what, around $40MM incoming. A blockbuster that includes BOTH Dipo and Turner probably includes Draymond as well.
Possibly, or they could included Looney or Poole to make it work.
Could also get a third team involved to toss in a contract for future compensation or cash. Include the Kings to add Joseph for a future 2nd from G.S.
Are we even sure Walton isn’t a good coach?
Pretty sure.
Yes
LOL, I’m loving seeing how my pretty sure gets significantly less likes than yes
for the record my pretty sure was said with a condescending sarcasm.
Use the condescending sarcasm font so we won’t be confused next time.
Yes. Also sure that Steve Kerr is an overrated coach.
I’ll give Kerr some credit. Every year we see talented teams implode, victims of their own ego. Kerr deftly managed a locker room that was inhabited by Draymond Green, which is no small feat. He also got guys like Curry, KD and Thompson to buy into sacrificing their own numbers for the greater good of the team.
I don’t know that Kerr is anything special when it comes to being a game coach, but any head coach that manages a team to a world championship is upper echelon, especially in this day and age.
Yeah he seems to have the respect of most players around the league.
Luke Walton coached the same team to a 39-4 record. He has been a disaster with every other team he coached. This shows me that literally anyone could have coached that team to a 39-4 record.
This is probably too hot of a take, but I actually think the Kings just have players that don’t fit Walton’s style. As a player, he was a blue collar dude that just tried harder and was smarter than your average player. And just look at the people who vouch for him: Steve Kerr, Kobe Bryant, Phil Jackson, Vlade Divac, (his dad) Bill Walton, and Lute Olson all speak/spoke very highly of him. Say what you want about each of them, but they were all brilliant in their own ways on or off the court.
If you look at the pre-Lebron years, Walton’s teams played fast and also played solid defense. I can imagine a scenario in which Luke grows into his role if he’s given a roster that suits his philosophy. If you look at the “watch the tape” thing from the perspective of being able to watch the tape and learn from it, then it’s less of a meme and more of an indictment on Vlade’s inability to sign smart basketball players. What if the Kings just have too many players who are incapable of discerning anything from watching the tape? When you watch Kings games don’t you have that feeling that they collectively don’t understand simple ass shit? What if that’s because they just aren’t the type of players who are capable of understanding simple ass shit?
The more I watch basketball, the more I realize that you either understand how to see the game or you don’t. Walton may just be the type of coach that needs a cerebral roster. Obviously, you want a coach that can make the most out of their roster, but I still think we are all overlooking the possibility that Vlade just sucks at roster building and it makes his coaches look worse than they are. He built a slow team for a coach that likes to play fast (Karl). He built a fast team for a coach that like to play slow (Joerger). Now he’s built a dumb team for a coach that likes to play smart (Walton). I don’t know if we can properly judge Walton’s ability to coach until he has a roster that fits his coaching philosophy.
If you’ve watched his post game pressers consistently, I think you can absolutely question his ability to coach.
I get that. I just think there may be some what do you want me to say the roster is just dumb vibes in his post-game pressers. Like I said, though, I’m not saying Walton is a great coach. I just think Vlade did him a disservice by building a team that’s incapable of learning from the tape. Walton was such a fun player to watch because he did all the little things that might not show up in the box score, but help the team win. He may not realize that that’s a skill just like Vlade never realized culture can’t turn players into playmakers.
That’s not the vibe I got at all – it felt like he hadn’t even watched the game (or absorbed the details).
By the way, that” dumb roster” overperformed considerably under the prior head coach.
Walton is an idiot who thinks he’s a great coach, much like Vlade thinks he’s a great GM. Birds of the same feather.
I don’t think Luke is an idiot.
I used to hear this a lot about Phil Jackson.
We will never know what Phil could do without a great roster. We have seen it with Luke, and its not pretty.
Kerr brought Golden State to the Finals 5 times in a row. He’s a great coach.
The more I think about it, the less concerned I am about the Dumars situation.
1 – Most Director – C-suite organizations relish on diversity. While there is potential for un-healthy competition, there is just as much potential for healthy competition as well. Personally if I were in Viveks shoes, I would prefer healthy competition over yes-men. Hopefully Vivek’s ego isn’t a contributing factor here.
2 – McNair seems like a switched on dude. I think he knows what he has signed up to (I hope that is the case, since that is generally what most competent personnel would background check).
3 – If things do go sour, and Vivek does have an ego, McNair may be Viveks shiny new toy, and with his analytical background, he may very well be in Viveks good books fairly quickly (in comparison to Dumars).
As far as the draft, I hope McNair’s analytics data systems value High B-ball IQ type players as much as athleticism (if not more).
I have no idea who is quality, however if Kings do somehow draft both Beys, I will look forward to Biggy Smalls memes of Bey-be bey-be!
Well done team. I enjoyed this chainmail read (no referenes to he who-is-not-to-be-named is quite refreshing).
I’m curious how McNair values the current roster.
it’s interesting because I/we know the roster so well. Biggest question- will he try to retain Giles? If he in fact does, that’s a golden ticket to an excellent first impressions with the fan base.
hear this McNair!! . . . You want to win fans over? Extend your metaphorical leash with your critics? Sign Giles!!!
This would almost be the exact opposite of what Pete D did with isiah Thomas his first month on the job had Vlade not already done most of the damage by not extending the Giles contract. Fix this ridiculously stupid mistake made by the guy who had your job right before you and you’ll earn significant love from the fans who just put their own money together to help get the last GM fired.
hear this too McNair!!!
buddy is an amazing shooter but he makes insanely boneheaded mistakes every game (literally every game) that cost the team and make a system of sharing the ball with trust in your teammates much more challenging. If you keep him make sure the coach uses him in a Reggie Miller type role not a janes harden type role.
I disagree that McNair should endear himself to the fan base, or at least have that be a motivating factor in his decision making. If the goal is to become a winner, to become a successful team, sometimes that takes hard decisions that alienates or pisses off the fans. Think of Toronto trading DeRozan. McNair has access to so much more data and information than we could even begin to imagine. My hope is that his decisions are made with the long term goal of being a contender, optics and internal politics be damned. Especially because, this being the Kings, if they’re making roster decisions based on fan sentiment, then that tells me they’re letting things like merchandise affect basketball ops.
I kind of agree. But the reality is that Vivek has shown not be a patient or rational guy and seems susceptible to outside pressure such as mass outcries from the fans.
And that is where the political part of McNair’s position comes into play. If he does not realize that he has to keep Vivek “happy” to an extent (and perhaps, by extension the fans too), the same issues may surface as before.
That does not mean he needs to build a contender in less than two seasons, but I think it helps if he communicates the rough outline and timeline of his plan and manages expectations. Why did (many, certainly not all) people accept the Process in Philly? Because Hickey had a clear plan and it was known to all.
let me clarify a little bit. I don’t think that McNair should keep Giles just to make the fans happy.
it’s a bonus to that signing. What I was really looking at but likely didn’t articulate well enough is his evaluation and desire to keep Giles. If he tries to keep him and loses the battle because Vlade screwed the pooch then he’ll still endear himself to the fans. 2 reasons for that from my perspective. 1.) it’s Giles and almost every Kings fan loves him. 2.) talent evaluation and cost of contract. If McNair sees the value in Giles then that’s a good sign. A big with touch, vision and elite passing ability is very hard to come by.
I stand by my slightly absurd declaration that whatever GM goes after Giles and signs him will win the honors of General Manager of the year. He’s poised for a breakout season. If he’s just a 4th big on a team at 5-7 million he’ll still be on a team friendly contract in comparison to the talent and upside he brings.
god damn Vlade, you really screwed this up.
if he is retained for less than the cost to retain our rights to him then I’ll praise Vlade for a risky decision that panned out and saved the franchise a small amount of money. Good for him? ð¤·ï¸ Still not worth the risk but I’ll concede and give praise.
Additionally, Giles is simply talented.
this isn’t keeping Jack Doyle on the roster because the fans chant his name a few times a month while averaging 2 minutes a game. This is a player that is a boarderline starting big right now that the franchise invested millions of dollars in and a ton of faith in to hopefully get him to this point. He’s also a player that might be better than the #2 pick in the draft that you passed on Luca for. They were successful with the risky selection and rehabilitation of Giles. And Vlade threw that all away. If McNair can save us from that mistake he would earn hero level praise from the majority of Kings fans. Why wouldn’t he want that. All the while making his new team better equipped for future success.
No Giles = No Kosta smiles
Git ‘er done,
Monty HallMonte!Unfortunately, Vlade pretty much took the Giles decision out of the Kings hands. But, Grant said he probably wont get a better deal somewhere else, so I guess we’re OK….
True, Grant WON’T get a better deal somewhere else. He’s done. Stick a farm-to-fork in him.
I was going to comment on the first point you raised. I’d love to know how McNair sees this roster and I assume he has been given latitude to make deals going forward
Houston as an organisation was very busy trading and making moves which gives one hope that they have a good knowledge of the rest of the league and have relationships with other teams. Not only that but seemed to have a degree of imagination in getting deals made and players signed. They found value in Ben McLemore which is saying something is it not things I’m not so sure that was Vlades forte.
i’d suggest that Giles is out of his hands assuming he even values his talents. As I understand it if he gets a bigger deal the Kings are SOL right?
If he proves to be competent and good at his job, that will negate any medling from ownership. The Kings recent GM candidates have almost invited some kind of ownership intervention by there incompetence
I think by doing logical and sensible things will help quiet down the maddening hordes and lead to a degree of forward progress and success
Yes, you’re right. If he gets an offer from another team we are screwed.
because of Covid financial restrictions and maybe for the possibility that Giles is under the radar outside of Sacramento (hopefully) and people might still have concerns with his injury history could help us get lucky.
keeping Giles seems like one of the more sensible and practical moves our new GM could make.
I think it’s noteworthy that teams are having some success with playmaking bigs in the playoffs. A smart GM will look at Giles and see a player that fits the archetype, but still has room to grow from a developmental standpoint. He’s already one of the better passing big men in the NBA, he showed glimpses of floor-spacing ability from the corner 3 in the bubble, and we literally always talk about how it takes big men a few years to learn how to play on the defensive end, but also literally always forget that exact point when discussing Giles’ career arc. Everybody seems to project growth for Bagley, but stagnation for Giles even though they’re basically the same age and Giles has played way less minutes since high school.
This has been RORDOG’s Why is everybody in a rush to jump off the Giles bandwagon?! TED Talk.
Yup. Another GM is going to get a big boost to his track record by signing Giles.
or McNair could too!!! And that was my whole point to this original post.
The other thing that may keep Giles’ price low on the market is his injury history. His skill set aside, other teams may not want to lock him up long term because of his knees. From that, I think there is a solid chance the Kings could get him on a 2 year deal with the second being a PO. I really don’t see any team giving him 3 years guaranteed.
God I hope you are right and god I hope McNair agrees!
I could see a team giving Giles a 3rd year on his deal non guaranteed to potentially keep his bird rights.
Good point, but that would likely lower his per year price. That is something that could help the Kings retain him if they wish.
I confused why the kings would keep Walton for another year as a lame duck coach. I have to wonder how that discussion went during the interview process. I wonder if McNair and Walton have had a meeting about playing style, the current roster, expectations, etc. McNair might like Walton and feels he would be successful if given the right players to run his system. The one move the Kings have to make is to retain Bogi. Bogi is a good player and pairs well with Fox.
You think the team didn’t listen to Luke last year…just imagine a year of Luke as a lame duck coach.
I also like the idea of Fox and Ball playing together. He’s a talent. Their college rivalry didn’t exactly become the next Bird-Magic rivalry so perhaps the better story is them playing together. It might depend on the likelihood of Ball resigning in Sac, I really don’t know, but I like the idea. I also like the McNair quote from 2017: it’s sort of like finding useful players that other teams are undervaluing. No James Harden type initiator? Then maybe we can initiate from the post then and get those initiators on more economical contracts. He’s open minded. I think some comments from Will sound like a chapter from Grapes of Wrath, dust bowl migration, selling everything for pennies on the dollar.
Plus, Lavar and Luke back together again!
Ha! That also. Plus I really like Bogi’s playmaking and don’t want to let him go. Just saying, I like Ball’s talent and some of the things he does on the court.
We can always use Buddy as an initiator!!!
ð
Ha! I’d trade Buddy for Ball. Play Fox, Bogi and Ball together.
And then I’d draft Lamine Diane and watch one highlight play after another.
I’d like this.
This is not the bummer you think it is.
Also, I said in one of my answers, “The Kings won’t be in the mood for letting assets go freely”, so I’m not sure how that meshes with “pennies on the dollar”.
I mean, instead of jettisoning Bogi for a trade exception, he could jump on back of the Studebaker. Giles too.
Thanks for answering my Q. The reason I asked is because I felt/feel like the new GM (at the time we didn’t know McNair would win the job) will immediately encounter a fork in the road type of situation. He will need to decide if he should go all in on building around Fox, or do a Fox trade to do a total reset before Fox’s extension kicks in. You can’t sign him to the big new deal, and sort of figure it out after. The problem is Vlade never built around Fox’s unique skillsets , so we can’t really project what a Fox led team can look like if built properly. I would assume each candidate’s pitch revolved around their vision of what to do with Fox moving forward. It’s that big of a deal, and it’s a good exercise to think about what you would need to do to make it work.
Ultimately, I think a trade needs to happen. He’s not good enough to lead a team on his own, and I don’t think they have the assets to get a 1A, so Fox can be a 1B.
One possibility that could work, in my opinion, would be to trade up and grab Killian Hayes to pair with Fox. I think it’s a bit under discussed that Dumars has basically groomed this kid since he was like 16. I could envision a scenario in which the Kings just have this 2-headed, left-handed, monster of a backcourt with Bogi coming off the bench to compliment either player. The shooting would be a little sketchy early on, but if both players can evolve over time then I think that could be a formidable one-two punch.
Since Combo guards/secondary facilitators are kind of the strength of this class, there are a number of guards that theoretically work with Fox. IF I were to make pairing with Fox a major consideration in my approach (which I wouldn’t), the only guards projected in the 1st round that may not work well would be guys like Anthony, Lewis, maybe Maxey, Terry, etc. Basically guys that aren’t especially likely to be able to passably defend NBA SGs or shoot off the ball. Guys like Edwards, Ball, Halliburton, Hayes, Hampton, etc. should all work. Now, that doesn’t mean I want all those guys.
Yeah I think it’s an interesting thought exercise. Maxey would be the double down on speed pick. Halliburton would be the safe complimentary pick if they were to go all in on a two pg lineup. I just think it’s notable that a) Dumars obviously sees something in Hayes, and b) the Kings just gave Dumars a big promotion. Couple that with the diminished cost of moving up in the draft this year, and I think it’s a realistic scenario that’s probably a bit under discussed.
And for anyone that hasn’t had a chance to read the article about the Dumars/Hayes connection you should definitely check it out. Essentially, Will Bynum is a trainer and Dumars is sort of like a father figure to him. When Dumars was at ISE they signed Hayes and Dumars asked Bynum to be his trainer. Now the Kings employ the former assistant GM of the Rockets, and the guy that first represented a guard who some compare to James Harden in terms of style of play. That could ultimately mean nothing, but if the Kings do end up drafting Hayes a whole lot of people will say we should’ve seen this coming based on the obvious connections.
I love this take.
I like a good inside scoop kind of prediction on draft picks. The connection there is hard to deny.
personally I’d like a Killian Hayes draft selection for the Kings. I’m not sold on anyone in the top 20 as my favorite. I can see the upside to Hayes and the interesting pairing with fox.
for the record, maybe my favorite guy in this draft is Bolmaro who of course the spurs are reportedly looking at for their draft selection. I’d actually take Bolmaro at 12 and be really happy about it.
that might be one of those hot take comments coming from me so take it with a grain of salt but I really like that kid. If we can pick a guy at 12 and then move up and get Bolmaro in the mid 20’s I’ll think McNair is a genius.
My concern about Hayes is is shooting. Fox is not a great shooter and Hayes has even further to go. He is young and raw, but having two guards who are just average from beyond the arc is not a recipe for success, IMO. That is why I have Haliburton ranked higher on my Fox’s sidekick list.
He shot 39% in 19-20 on decent volume and a shot variety and put up excellent FT%. What makes you so concerned about his shot?
Aside from his low 3pt%, I’m not a fan of his low release and, what appears to me to be, lack of verticality on his jumper. He’s gonna have a harder time getting his shot off against NBA defenses. His FT% looks promising and may be an indicator of his mechanics, but I’m not a fan of his jumper.
the verticality part is concerning just in general. He legit looks like he struggles to even dunk the ball in transition. That’s a little weird for a 6’5″ guy with a plus wingspan. I still think people are kind overthinking things though. I love guys that can excel despite their physical limitations especially if they’ve played in europe. Like Hayes was born here, but he excelled at playing basketball in Europe as an 18 year old. That means something right?
Maybe, but that lack of verticality and the release that is out in front of him won’t work in the NBA like it did in Europe, and truth be told it didn’t work all that well in Europe.
Yes, he can pass, rebound and possibly defend, but at this point I’m not sure he is any better than someone like Frank Ntilikina. Halliburton is still my guy if the Kings are trading up for a guard to go along with Fox.
Serious question, what makes Hayes a better prospect than Haliburton? Maybe create his own shot, but the rest Haliburton does better.
For people that rank Hayes over Haliburton, I would guess they’d say age (they’re about 1.5 years years apart) and self-creation/shot diversity. The ability to create your own shot is a pretty big deal. And, I should also mention that Haliburton’s shot features a low, out-front release as well.
Personally, I put them on pretty equal footing. Haliburton feels a bit safer, probably because of the NCAA/path-familiarity security blanket. But Hayes self-creation might give him a bit more upside. Really I’m splitting hairs here though. Like I said, I’d put them both in the same tier/level.
That’s fair, I can see them being on the same tier. It is true that Haliburton has a funky shot as well, but I give him the edge on his length and quicker release.
I guess I just like the other intangibles that Haliburton brings, like the mentioned length, better passing/rebounding and over all shooting percentages. I also think he will grow to be the better defender.
I see Hayes as a Dante Exum while I see Haliburton as Shaun Livingston with an outside shot.
yeah I don’t really love Hayes’ form. It’s a bit catapult-y. But, it’s consistent, and his FT% on good volume is reassuring. I’m left-handed, and I still have a hard time distinguishing typical left-handed mechanics versus flaws though. We also need to consider that his 3P% is a little weird just in general. He seems to do better on shots off the bounce versus catch and shoot. In my gut, I think that’s probably a good indicator because created threes are more valuable than threes that are made within the flow of the offense. Obviously they’re both worth 3 points. I’m just talking about the value of point creation in general. You can’t always swing the ball around the perimeter to create a wide open corner three.
Oddly, often left-handed shooters have a bit of the opposite problem that Hayes does. We see it in both Fox and Bagley where they over-flex their shooting elbow (getting closer to 60-degrees rather than 90). As such, they end up with a bit of a flinging/catapult motion that robs them of their natural touch. Hayes mechanics issue is a low gather and low release. His release is a bit similar to Trae Young’s that way. But Young has worked to simplify his gather so he doesn’t need as much space to get his shot off now. Personally, I think Hayes will be good. He’s shooting well now. His indicators are positive. I think as he gets stronger and works on it he’ll likely simplify his gather and raise his release. The fact that he has good height obviously mitigates a bit of the low release issue as well. He also seems like he’s able to speed up his release a bit without it getting too out of wack. There are little things like a flared guide elbow and a bit too much thumb at times. But overall, I think he’s in a good place for his age.
Long story short, I would buy on Hayes’ shooting. His potential issues to me are his athleticism (which I don’t think is a huge problem, just not ideal) and his left-hand dominance.
I also think he gets too sideways on his threes. Again, I’m not an expert on this stuff, but it feels like his footwork is closer to a person shooting a gun where you have one foot in front of the other. I shoot a gun right-handed, even though I’m left-handed, because it puts my dominate foot in front, but also puts my dominate eye (the right one) in the scope. If you look at his release in this shot (attached) you can see how his feet are positioned in a way in which they’re pointing towards the camera, even though the rim is on the right side. More traditionally fundamental shooters like Klay seem to have their feet set more evenly with one another. I’d be curious if the left-handed, yet right-eye-dominant, thing changes the shooting mechanics for lefties. I’ve seen studies about how cross-dominance doesn’t give athletes a competitive advantage, but I’ve never seen anything about how it impacts mechanics just in general.
(I’m just speculating here FYI. I don’t know that Hayes and Fox have the cross dominance thing. I just suspect it because of their footwork and shooting motion. Also I think the science of left-handedness is fascinating.)
I was listening to Bill Simmons’ pod and he had Jackie MacMullan on. She talked about how she was really happy that McNair got the job in Sacramento. She talked about how she was doing a cover story for ESPN the magazine about the Houston Rockets, and McNair explained to her about how they were going to stagger lineups with Harden and Paul so that there was only like 6 minutes total in which neither player would be on the floor. She was amazed at how well he was able to figure all that out and explain it in a way that was easy to understand. Simmons was like “wow so the Kings actually made a smart decision for once?” It was reassuring to hear an example of how McNair is good at understanding complex situations, while also having the ability to explain the logic in a way that’s easily understood. You can see the part in her article (from 2018) in which she discusses how D’Antoni explains McNair’s plan to the players:
That’s the type of stuff that may not even be noticeable while watching the game, but can help on the margins. It’s why I always try to avoid looking at rosters as 5 starters, 5 back-ups, and 5 end of the bench guys. Rotations matter, and as simplistic as it sounds, the goal is to have a team that can roll out enough 5-man lineups that are capable of outscoring their opponents.
So that means Walton’s out and D’Antoni’s in.
Perfect!!!
i support McNair looking into Fox’s value as well
Wouldnt trade him without real good value though
Badge Legend