Welcome back to Chainmail! This edition of the mailbag is chock full of questions ranging from draft prospects to GM candidates to a plethora of Buddy Hield trade ideas. To freshen things up, we also invited Brenden to join us in answering your queries this week.
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Let’s dive into some questions, shall we?
From Rob Hessing:
Each of you name one player that you think will be there at #12 that you would love to have, one player at #12 that you would hate to have, and one player at #12 that would have you thinking that the ghost of Vlade Divac is still roaming the halls.
Tim: I don’t think there’s a high chance that he’ll be there, but if Devin Vassell falls to the 12th pick, Kings fans should consider themselves very, very lucky. Vassell is representative of the classic three-and-D players that we constantly wish for, although he’s a little on the light side, so he may be more of a 2/3 combo to start his career. From an offensive standpoint, he’s not necessarily a creator or one to get his own shot, but his shooting is elite, as he sunk 41.7% of his 168 three-point attempts in his two years at Florida State. Vassell is the exact kind of hard-working, defensive-minded player who could start to turn the lazy basketball culture of Sacramento around.
There is one player who I would absolutely be devastated to see drafted at number twelve: Jaden McDaniels. McDaniels was projected as a lottery pick at one point during the collegiate season, but I’m not even sure I would pick him at 35. I hope the Kings stay far, far, far away from him.
If Vlade was still in charge (It’s such a relief to say that, isn’t it?), Alexsej Pokusevski feels like an automatic selection. He’s Serbian, played in international leagues, is a big man, and is supposed to be a unicorn mix of Nikola Jokic and Kristaps Porzingis. All of that being said, I have no desire to see him in a Kings uniform unless Sacramento picks up another first rounder later in the draft. He’s seven feet tall and weighs 200 pounds. I’m 6’7″, weigh around 210, and most folks would consider me on the thinner side of things. I don’t care how skilled he might be for a seven-footer, unless he’s Kevin Durant-esque, I don’t believe there’s a high chance of him being successful in the NBA for many years, if at all.
Will: I’m seriously doubting that Vassell drops past ten right now, so I don’t think that he’s someone I can reliably say will be there. I do think however that I would be happy grabbing a guy like Saddiq Bey. He’s got great size, projects to being able to shoot the rock and defend at the next level. Is he the sexiest pick? Absolutely not. But he’s the workhorse pick, he’s a guy that could come in and affect the culture a bit, making everyone adjust to his level of intensity and work – something that I think the Kings sorely lack at times.
I wouldn’t necessarily hate anyone at this range. I think a guy like Jaden McDaniels or Cole Anthony presents serious risks, but if the Kings have a good GM in place who feels like he can pull something out of these guys that their college coaches couldn’t, I would be meh’ at most about it.
You know who else was a Vlade pick? Luka F*cking Doncic and Vlade didn’t make that one either. I actually don’t mind the idea of Poku here. I think being the youngest player in the draft means he’s got time to fill out a bit and fit himself into 230 lbs or so of muscle, making him passable as a super stretch 5. I also don’t think that Vlade would realistically pick Poku here. He’s too high a risk and far closer to a Papagiannis than anything in the draft in a while so he’d avoid that. I think RJ Hampton is far closer to a Vlade pick. Five star American recruit who went to New Zealand to play basketball, tall crafty playmaker that could easily slide into the hole Bogdanovic leaves when he isn’t resigned or to learn under him after a lopsided trade to send Hield away – that’s a Vlade pick.
Brenden: The guys that I love, and most everyone should for Sacramento, are Devin Vassell and Tyrese Haliburton, but, with them having been mentioned plenty of times before and likely not available at pick 12, I am going to go with Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey. I have really come around to the idea of Maxey as of late, and he is the type of player that I am regularly enamored by – a combo guard with an insane motor, heart, and hustle on both ends and an impressive defensive IQ. He finished at the rim very efficiently at UK, showed potential shooting from deep (83.3 FT%), functioned regularly off-ball, and is strong enough to cover two guards at the NBA level. His fit is based on the idea of Sacramento moving on from one of Bogdanovic or Hield this offseason, but I think his pairing with Fox would be electric and something that fans would quickly fall in love with
I hate the idea of Cole Anthony paired with De’Aaron Fox. Cole was a top-5 prospect coming into this college season, so I get the appeal, but I do not think that either Cole or Fox could log regular minutes matched up against shooting guards and both demand the ball in their hands on the offensive end. This isn’t a Luka situation for me where you take the clear BPA and make it work, Cole has many question marks to his game. His finishing was terrible at UNC, he was a streaky shooter, and his passing left much to be desired. While many point to the fact that the spacing around him was atrocious, and it truly was, I can’t get past the idea of him being a high- usage, low efficiency guard that slows the growth of Fox.
Aleksej Pokusevski is clearly the most Vlade Divac pick for all the reasons that Tim laid out. I’ve actually come around to the idea of Poku as of late since there is a real argument he has the highest ceiling in this draft class and I think that Sacramento should turn their focus to the 2021 Draft anyways where there are actual franchise players sitting at the top. Poku would be the home run swing to take at 12 if the new GM decides the team needs to get younger and retool fit the timeline of De’Aaron Fox.
From SPTSJUNKIE:
At #12 we seem to be in a position where there maybe a few players available who have a very high probability of developing into high end role players. Players like Vassell, Nesmith, and Green are arguably prototypical 3-D players to differing degrees (some better shooters, some better defenders, but all credible at both) with NBA builds and physical traits / athleticism. However, barring outlier development, they likely have lower ceilings as high end starters. Additionally, there are some prospects like Williams and Poku who have higher ceilings, but who could either be out of the league in 5 years or at least playing a very limited role when they are becoming RFAs. Our franchise has two issues we have a lack of star power and we have whiffed on so many assets that we don’t have a ton of great trade capital.
So if you were GM, regardless of the exact player you would pick strategically, would you prioritize trying to swing for the fences at #12 for a 10% chance at hitting a home run or would you draft a player you believe could be a solid starter and be happy with an 80% chance of hitting a double?
Tim: This question really made me re-evaluate what exactly I’m looking for in this draft, as well as what I believe the offseason plan should look like as a whole. This is going to sound very Vlade-esque, but the Kings need a culture change more than any one player or position to be filled. To be frank, the core is made up of a bunch of nice dudes who like to score, don’t particularly enjoy playing defense, and who often give up at the first sign of adversity. It’s not pretty. No one fights for anything.
So to actually answer the question, I want to swing for the fences for a culture-shifter more than anything else. There are a mix of players, both low ceiling and high ceiling, who could possibly push the Kings in that direction. Patrick Williams is the high risk, high reward gamble who’s gotten (unfair) comparisons to Kawhi Leonard despite averaging 9.2 points and 4 rebounds off of the bench for Florida state. Devin Vassell is probably the best balance between the those two poles, while Tryese Maxey has some Marcus Smart in his soul, but he’s also the most questionable fit next to De’Aaron Fox. Pick any of those guys, and I’m pretty happy.
Will: This year of all years, I am at peace knowing that this draft is going to have guys below Sacramento’s pick flourish. This draft is too even and balanced for there not to be a guy who lands in the perfect position to break out early. The Kings are log jammed at pretty much every single position, so it isn’t going to be them that finds that player. That being said, this is the year to go for the home-run. Playing it safe in a year full of question marks might end up netting you an 8th man, but the Kings are a team filled with 6th men already. This pick is too far down in the lottery for me to really stress its importance and it’ll be overlooked or mocked regardless of the outcome years down the road if a star isn’t found. Swinging for a Poku at 12 won’t draw much scorn because of a general consensus around his massive potential. Do it.
Brenden: Before I get to your question I want to point out that I think people are underestimating the ceiling of Devin Vassell since he has some potential to create for himself off the dribble with his ridiculously high release point and silky smooth touch – if he makes it to 12 you take him.
Previously, I was a big advocate for Sacramento going for the safe pick with their selection but after their horrific showing in the bubble I think the focus needs to turn getting a younger roster that fits with the one true building block they have in De’Aaron Fox. The 2021 Draft has roughly 5-8 players that would have the argument for hearing their name called first in 2020 and legitimate franchise cornerstones at the top. Therefore, I think Sacramento can justify taking a home run swing in Poku or Pat Williams – who are also the two youngest players in the draft – and be content with them likely not contributing to winning basketball in their rookie campaign.
I also would not mind a culture setter as Tim mentioned.
From Adamsite:
The Kings currently have 9 players under contract for next season: Fox, Barnes, Buddy, Holmes, Joseph, Bagley, Parker (PO), Nemanja (partial guarantee), and James. Assuming they bring back a few of their free agents: Bogi, Jeffries, Giles, Guy or Len, the roster is going to be near full. Now add in the fact that they have four draft picks in the draft that will take up more roster spots.
From all that, and barring any trades, will the Kings be a player in free agency, or more importantly, should they?
Tim: The Kings won’t be very big players in free agency for two reasons. First, there just aren’t that many valuable contributors to be had. When you remove the obvious player and team options, re-signings, and extensions, Bogdan Bogdanovic, a solid role player, is probably a top-5 guy in this class. That’s not great.
The second issue is internal – the Kings will undoubtedly be above the cap this fall. That means their only realistic spending tool will be the standard mid-level exception, while will fall somewhere in the $7 – $9 million range. The MLE can be spent on one player or split between multiple contributors, so that may be cut in half or even in third when things are all said and done. I expect the new front office to find a third-string point guard and maybe an emergency big or wing with that cash.
Will: The Kings will not and really should not be players in free agency. Bring back Bogi for a reasonable price if you can, beg Harry Giles to return but outside of that, the Kings only moves should be waiting to see if a young, undervalued guy gets dropped by a team and the Kings can scoop him for cheap. That isn’t going to happen, especially this early in a new GM’s tenure and barring a wave of cap clearing trades, we should expect a very quiet free agency from Sacramento.
Brenden: With their financial situation, it really is just the MLE that Sacramento will be looking at this offseason, and they 100% should keep Bogi around unless they can manage a pick in the early to mid teens.
Some candidates I like for the MLE include Derrick Jones Jr, Aron Baynes, Maurice Harkless, Tristan Thompson, Jae Crowder, and DeMarcus Cousins.
From Marty:
With this year’s ballroom playoffs being a regular Who’s Who of ex-Kings, which current King is a lock to be starring in the playoffs next year for another team?
Tim: We’re all going to be miserable next year when Buddy Hield is a key part of the Mavericks run to the NBA Finals.
Will: Here’s a scenario that I’ve already accepted as the future: The Indiana Pacers, led by coach Mike D’Antoni, upsets their opponent in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs on the back of their uptempo play-style and timely playmaking from SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is now a media darling and core piece of that team. Close your eyes. See him being interviewed courtside in a Pacers jersey. It feels right, doesn’t it?
Brenden: With thoughts of Sacramento potentially not picking up the non-guaranteed contract of Nemanja Bjelica I would not be surprised to see him splashing threes for a team like Boston, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia come next playoffs. He will certainly get targeted on defense, but his stellar shooting and underrated play-making off the dribble could be good for something like 15 minutes a night in the postseason.
From SuperShaka:
We know who the coach will be next year and a GM search is underway. When will the team decide on a VP of Basketball Ops? If Dumars is only interim there would need to be a permanent replacement, right?
Tim: It’s entirely possible that the new “General Manager” candidate actually becomes the new President of Basketball Operations, and he or she hires a staff below them, which may or may not include a titled General Manager. That new person could also give themselves both the title of President and General Manager. If the Kings do this thing right, they should be bringing in 5 – 7 new employees, not just one or two. Side note: I would bet good money that Joe Dumars is not a part of that structure in any formal way.
Will: I think whoever the Kings bring in will be given a President of Basketball Operations title, with Joe Dumars taking on a special advisor role with Vivek. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some major reshuffling at more than a few spots and a guy like Ken Catanella ending up as the official General Manager of the Kings while the Kings splashy move has that higher title. Regardless there is going to be a solid week or so of confusion and head scratching over formalities.
Brenden: As Tim said, I think that the new GM should have full say in the staff below him/her. And let’s hope ownership is comfortable in allowing that freedom because if that is not the case then the job becomes much less appealing.
From Chent:
Has the dominant play of lead guards who can shoot in the playoffs (Lillard, Murray, Mitchell) changed your opinion on drafting or building a team moving forward? I know Fox is the PG but I am of the opinion that we can run a 2 guard lineup even if its a smaller back court than traditional standards. With Fox’s size and athleticism I don’t see a big drop off defensively especially if we have good sized wings like Jeffries/Barnes . The Warriors did this with Ellis and Curry until they made a choice on how to move forward.
I have moved off the Pat Williams bandwagon and have kind of just felt the need to draft someone who has NBA level shooting ability along with skills in other areas. I’m leaning more toward a mixture 12)Tyrell Terry/35) Tillman, or 12)Jalen Smith/35) Flynn.
Tim: I don’t think the Kings can afford to go small next to Fox unless the Kings can find a perfect fit. Fox isn’t particularly big, is a poor defender, and isn’t an effective off-ball player due to his shooting woes. I would rather prioritize bigger wing players who can play on both sides of the ball, as almost every contender has one of those guys on their roster.
Will: It hasn’t really changed my opinion too much because two of those three guys mentioned are already out of the playoffs. The teams still rolling towards a championship are guys with forwards that can take over a game from either end of the court. The Giannis’, Kawhis, Paul Georges, Tatums, Siakams of the world (and yes Lebron, but technically he’s a point guard this year I guess). Harrison Barnes has shown that he really isn’t that dude and the Kings need to find and develop lead forwards as quick as they can.
Brenden: I think Tyrese Maxey is gonna be your guy then, even though he hasn’t proven himself as a shooter from range during his one season at Kentucky. But he would allow a two-guard lineup that fits the strengths of De’Aaron Fox for the future. I think at pick 12 you do have to strongly consider fit (only when it comes to Fox) since there likely will not be a clear BPA. Also, I think you may be underrating the importance of wing defense to slow the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Anthony Davis, and Luka Doncic. Wings tend to make up a good majority of elite players in the league and it is easier to find someone to fit the 3&D mold at 6’3 than 6’8.
From CoreyBrewersD:
Maybe this has already been asked. If you were to trade Buddy.
What player, pick in this draft, or combo thereof, would you trade Buddy for? Best reasonable deal (high hope) and least reasonable deal (meh but better than keeping Buddy)
Tim: Two reasonable, high hope trades would be either Buddy for Myles Turner or Buddy for Tim Hardaway Jr. and the 18th pick. I could see either of those deals happening. A meh deal would definitely involve Philly: taking on one of their terrible contracts (Horford, Harris) for young players and picks. I just don’t trust the Kings do get the right combination of assets for that sort of a salary dump.
Will: Yeah, I don’t mean to agree with Tim and Brenden, but a Myles Turner deal would be a relieving return for Buddy. Something that while not the splashiest of deals, would put the Kings in a position to justify the move with a position that fits a Kings lineup hole perfectly. I would love to find a way to get picks out of Philly because I think they’re ripe for an implosion in the next few years, but I don’t see that really happening without the Kings taking on a LOT of salary. I’d rather a quicker movement to the youth and the Sixers really can’t bring that to the Kings.
Brenden: Myles Turner is a dream for a Sacramento team that allowed the highest percentage at the rim this season. We talked ourselves, at least I did, into Richaun Holmes being the answer as a defensive anchor when that really just isn’t his game. Especially if D’Antoni takes over in Indiana, I could see them intrigued by the offensive skills that Hield possesses.
The Dallas trade mentioned by Tim is also a personal favorite of mine since I think that draft picks should be coveted by a team that desperately needs to get younger and build a future core around De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley.
From SlamsonsRollerskates
What is the speculative interest for a base trade of: Atlanta acquiring Buddy Hield in exchange for their #6 overall pick? Another player, our first rounder, or both would be added to consummate the deal if there was any traction on Atlanta’s end. Hield with Young and that Atlanta team could be scary. Plus, they’re both former Sooners.
Tim: I believe a version of that trade was originally proposed by Bill Simmons, who should never be listened to when it comes to trade ideas. He’s terrible. However, there was a recent post from The Athletic which did name Buddy Hield as a theoretical trade target for the Atlanta Hawks, with a much more realistic hypothetical deal. The authors discussed a swap of Hield and the 12th pick for the 6th pick, while acknowledging that the Hawks would likely need to give a smaller asset as well. Could that be Kevin Huerter or their 2022 OKC first rounder (top-14 protected, converts to two seconds if it doesn’t convey)? If Atlanta was really willing to add Huerter to the trade, I would call it into the league office tomorrow.
Will: If Atlanta is silly enough to see Buddy Hield as their answer to a playoff question and they’re willing to swap him for picks, I’m fine with doing it. Not exactly jumping for joy but very much fine with it. With this draft being as topsy-turvy as it is, that puts you in the range of the likes of an Okongwu (who would be a dream for the Kings), Deni Advija and at the very least guarantees you could grab Devin Vassell if that is the guy the Kings have on their list. Atlanta, on the other hand, would be even more fun on offense but I really don’t see them being able to compete nightly on defense with Trae and Buddy as their lead guards. They’d have to average 140 a night to even get close to the eighth.
Brenden: I poked around with this question to some people in Atlanta media and was surprised to hear them not tell me to go away instantly. They are in a spot with an enormous amount of cap space, yet no elite talents to spend it on and for some reason seem to be pushing to make the playoffs ASAP.
Still, I think this would be a bad move for Atlanta when they can sign Joe Harris, Malik Beasley, or even Evan Fournier to fit Hield’s role for a fraction of the price. From Sacramento’s point-of-view I would pull the trigger on Hield for 6 in a heartbeat and look at taking Onyeka Okongwu.
From mdeedublu:
Would you trade Buddy for Aaron Gordon straight up? If so, does Orlando make that trade? Should their be mutual interest?
Tim: It’s a very meh deal for me. Gordon is a solid contributor and questions have always lingered about his untapped potential because of the way that the Orlando Magic have always used him, but he’s also a terrible pairing with Marvin Bagley and may just be a non-shooting, athletic power forward and nothing else. From Orlando’s point of view, I’m not sure the trade makes much sense. They have Evan Fournier as their starting shooting guard, assuming he picks up his massive player option, Terrence Ross backing him up, and they just lost Jonathan Isaac, the presumed replacement for Aaron Gordon, for the entire 2020-2021 season. It would be an awkward fit for both teams.
Will: I wouldn’t at this point, though I like Gordon’s fit at this current stage than Buddy. While Gordon really is only 25, he doesn’t fit what GM Will is trying to build the Kings into at this point. He’s solid on defense but not spectacular, he’s below average on offense but not terrible. Where the Kings are trading a player with an elite skill, possibly the most prized skill in this day and age, trading that play for a jack-of-all-trades, but a master of none just doesn’t quite swing it. Move Harrison Barnes for picks first and it might make it a bit more palatable for me.
Brenden: I don’t hate it, but I am firm in the idea that the Kings should look to get younger and Aaron Gordon is nearly 25. I have a slight bias toward Gordon as I grew up near him and he is the only player I’ve ever seen live in high school, but I think this is almost a lateral move for the Kings. I would like the roster construction slightly better with Gordon than Hield, mainly since I seem to buy AG’s defense more than most, but I still think this does not move the needle enough to sneak into the eight seed and he is likely gone in two years when his deal expires. I am placing the most value in draft assets in any deal that moves on from Hield or Bogdanovic.
Thanks for the questions, everyone!
I don’t see Poku as a Vlade pick at all. I think there’s a weird knee-jerk idea that Vlade is somehow more likely to draft European or Eastern European prospects when he actually hasn’t shown that proclivity at all.
If Vlade has a type it’s high exposure, raw, athletic guys. Which is pretty much the opposite of Poku. The most Vlade pick is someone like Williams or Precious.
I also don’t see how Williams is an especially high reward guy. I’m no huge Bey fan, but I’m not sure what gives Williams any higher ceiling than him, and he certainly has a lower floor. He’s young, but he doesn’t really show the advanced skills, BBIQ, or elite athleticism you would look for to consider someone so raw a high ceiling prospect.
Great point – I think both you and I had Precious as our answer in the original thread. But outside of Papa G and a couple of very late draft stashes (i.e., Marinkovic at #60 last year) – Poku types were not Vlade’s MO at all. He seemed to like (and some prospects fit in both):
Raw (for where they were picked) athletes: WCS, Skal, Giles, Richardson, Fox, Bagley
Polished, older prospects from winning programs: JJ, Mason, Guy
Highly ranked freshman: Fox, Bagley, Giles
Papa G was sort of the exception. And arguably James doesn’t fit cleanly into one of those buckets. But high skill, high IQ players were the exception for Vlade.
Agreed with Brenden on the last question. We should be accumulating draft assets as much as possible right now.
Vlade “built” a team destined to remain in NBA purgatory. Let a good GM blow it up and start over.
I use the word “built” liberally, since he had just about the best luck any GM could ever hope for, and this is still the best he could do.
Thank you for answering my question – very thoughtful responses.
What I find interesting is that between the writers and posters (in the original thread) who answered the questions – there is so far a universal consensus that people would love to see a big swing and take a risk on a potential star (a lot of Poku love) as opposed to checking the box on a starter / 6th man.
I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer to the question as we have seen teams build successfully with both approaches. I think the Bucks for example took a big, successful swing in Giannis, whereas teams like the Rockets and Heat built up assets and flipped them to varying degrees.
But it does seem like people are willing to have blow things up a bit and take some big swings versus trying to build on what we have an trying to increase the value of our assets and sell them.
One other thought for Brendan:
While I’d be happy with Vassell at 12 – I think people are looking at ceiling in terms of a potential star player like Jokic, Harden, Mitchell, etc. (maybe not a LeBron, but a potential #1a or #1b type of player). I have a really hard time seeing Vassell getting there. He can dribble some, but he really strikes me as being very similar in many ways to Mikal Bridges. He may be able to straight line drive and score opportunistically, but I have a hard time seeing him having the speed / advanced handles to create consistently.
With that said, it’s also a bit of a narrow definition of a star and players like Middleton, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, and Roco were in the top 40 of RPM this year with others guys like Brown, DiVincenzo, and Powell knocking on the door. Now RPM is imperfect and not all of the guys are probably as impactful or their impact may not have the stability over the years as true stars, but you can certainly imagine Vassell making that type of 2 way impact if he develops.
Although, that was also sort of the point of the question, do we want to go for a player who is very likely a top 100-150 player, but who could crack the top 50 as a high end starter. Or do we want to take a huge swing and possible get a Jokic or Giannis like surprise, but also risk getting a Papa G, Skal, Joe Alexander type. Or in today’s parlance, do we want to be Robin Hood traders buying weekly call options or build a strong, long term portfolio 🙂
Thanks for the thought out answers. I hadn’t heard the Tim Jr. thought before, that sound like a good move for the Kings. I don’t see Hardaway as a significant downgrade(and trade-able), but the add of the 18 would be great to cover both a homerun swing and a low floor guy.
Also, I am so stuck on which is worse. The Lakers or Rockets to Semi’s. I really hate Harden the player, but LBJ and purple and gold…. in all likelihood the league bends the calls to LBJ anyway, Anyone?
Hardaway Jr. is a BIG downgrade IMO. Don’t be fooled by the Doncic bump.
Which Buddy Luke Buddy? or Joerger Buddy? I think we are stuck with Luke Buddy for another 82 games. I would like to lose that salary and take back as little as possible. Buddy may just lose it publicly next season and we will be lucky to get rid of that contract for Horfords LOL. Signing Buddy was great when we planned on a playoff run but I don’t think anyone here wants to pay for 4 years up to 100 mil to Buddy when we are at best 3 years from any “playoff noise”. I could see playing to his strengths and trade him near the deadline for a “Hardaway” and a 2021 first.
I think you guys are taking home run swings on split fingered fastballs. I don’t see Poku or Maxey as guys who can help how and their upside is not that high. This is a draft year where I think the Kings should draft a player at #12 who can help now. What’s wrong with that? It is not a strong draft class. Xavier Tillman and Saddiq Bey are not sexy picks but I have them in my top 9. After that, I could understand taking a swing at a Patrick Williams or Okongwu, but even then I would consider a high floor, low ceiling player like Malachi Flynn who might only be a Monte Morris type of player but could take Yogi Ferrel’s spot immediately and possibly make the rotation in year 2.
What if the Kings could trade Buddy to a team in exchange for, among other things, a late first, then they use that pick to draft Tillman?
That’s an interesting proposition but I don’t think Tillman will be on the board in the late first and I would have to know the entire deal (ie., what kind of players/contracts we would receive) and who the Kings would draft at #12 instead. I’m mainly trying to get value out of the #12 pick, someone who will help the team and earn his paycheck, something I don’t think will occur with most lottery picks this year.
Will’s article about Hinkie’s manifesto reminded me of this Michael Lewis article about Daryl Morey. It’s an interesting look at a GM trying to distinguish the signal from the noise during the draft process. The one part that stuck out to me was the trap front office’s fall into of attempting to develop player comps. Here’s what Morey had to say on the subject:
The reason I bring it up is because I was trying to look at the players in the Kings range who could conceivably have a path to a high upside outcome and I started looking at Tyrell Terry. It’s so crazy how your brain can just see Terry and think Curry. Jonathan Wasserman at B/R had a recent article that literally has scouts doing the same thing:
It’s just a weird dynamic. I was lower on Trae Young because I thought people were projecting Steph-like production due to the similarities in skin tone and physical build. I was obviously wrong. The comp ended up being true to a certain extent. With Terry, he seems to actually have some basketball-related similarities to those two that go beyond appearance. He’s a super smooth and confident shooter. He’s not at their level as a passer though obviously.
My concern stems from another one of those subjective gut instinct things because he doesn’t have broad shoulders. It’s the same thing that concerns me with Poku. My brain just doesn’t believe a player can gain the requisite mass needed to excel if they have really small shoulders.
On the other hand, my other subjective belief is that if a guy can shoot with erratic footwork, then that’s a sign he can excel shooting off the bounce. The player isn’t dependent on a consistent base to get their shot off I guess.
To make a long story short, what’s everybody’s thoughts on Terry’s upside? Would he be more desirable at #12 if you didn’t have to envision a Fox/Terry backcourt pairing?
That’s an interesting point. I wonder if players like Avdija are overvalued due to Luka’s success.
A lot of that mirrors my thoughts exactly. There is no comparison between Tyrell Terry and Steph Curry. I would not be surprised if Terry is trying to model his game after Curry and therefore in some highlights, Curry comes to mind, but that’s where the comp stops. Curry dominated games, Terry does not. He is a late 2nd rounder or undrafted IMO. Go back to Stanford Tyrell. Here is another one. Killian Hayes. He is a left handed scoring guard who models his game after James Harden, but guess what? He is not James Harden. James Harden was so unstoppable that coaches had to throw the kitchen sink at him. Rookie Jorge Gutierrez for Cal had articles written about him and became a local hero for coming off the bench with the assignment of sticking with Harden every second from the moment he stepped on the court to the moment he stepped off the court, not letting Harden even breathe, because none of the other Cal players could hang with him. Hero. Articles. For sort of giving Harden some difficulties. And people are comping Hayes to Harden? So no, Tyrell Terry is not desirable at #12 period.
Thanks for not answering the question that I didn’t ask!
Thanks for not asking it!
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