From March Madness to the Kings’ Future

There are just nine games left in this godforsaken season following last night’s 44 point drubbing at the hands of the Charlotte Hornets.  At this point, it certainly looks like the Kings will have somewhere between the 3rd and 5th worst record in the NBA, with the greatest chance probably being 4th worst between the Brooklyn Nets at 3rd and Utah Jazz at 5th.  The 4th slot would give the Kings a 48.1% chance at picking in the top 4, but also could drop them all the way to 8th.

Draft positioning and order is by far the most important thing going on with the Kings right now, as what they do in this draft has the greatest chance of potentially turning this franchise around.  We also are in the midst of March Madness, so this is really the last chance we’re getting to see of a lot of these prospects.  The first two rounds were pretty exciting, but with the Sweet 16 starting up tomorrow, I thought I’d share a peek at my personal hopes for the Kings come this June, separated into the three tiers in which I’d be most excited for drafting them.  Keep in mind this is all the opinion of a guy who has watched maybe five games worth of basketball for each of these guys.

Tier 1 – We got our franchise guy

1. AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU

Dybantsa’s BYU team was eliminated in the first round of the Tourney, but it most definitely wasn’t because of anything Dybantsa did.  Dybantsa played all 40 minutes against Texas and was nigh unstoppable for most of it, scoring a game-high 35 points to go with 10 rebounds.  At half time, Texas’ coach Sean Miller was asked what they could do to slow down Dybantsa and he simply said “I don’t think we can”.  Dybantsa didn’t get much help from his fellow Cougars though, as only one other player scored in double digits for BYU.  The Cougars were without one of their leading scorers in guard Richie Saunders, but it was really their defense that struggled more than anything against Texas as they allowed the Longhorns to shoot 52.3% from the field and got dominated in the paint by Texas Center Matas Vokietaitis, who had 23 points and 16 rebounds (9 offensive).

Dybantsa however solidified himself in my mind as the best prospect in the draft.  At 6’9 and 210 lbs, Dybantsa has excellent size for a wing in the modern NBA.  While his outside shot and defense need work, his feel as a scorer both attacking the rim and getting to the midrange are undeniable. Dybantsa averaged 25.5 points a game on 51% from the field, while also getting to the line 8.5 times a game.  Dybantsa also played de facto Point Guard at times, often bringing the ball up and initiating the offense.  While I think some other NBA prospects on this list might look better in the NBA early on, I think Dybantsa has the greatest upside of anyone else in this draft, with an already solid floor to begin with.  I’m guessing he’s the top prospect on most GM’s boards, and I think he’ll end up being the #1 overall pick.

2. Darryn Peterson, SG, Kansas

Darryn Peterson has been one of the more controversial prospects this year due to his multitude of injuries and questions about his commitment level.  Kansas was also eliminated against St. John’s in the second round with Peterson scoring 21 points but on just 5 of 15 shooting from the field.  All that being said, I’m not sure there’s a better scorer in this draft, and I think that unless there’s something glaringly bad in his medicals, he should be one of the top prospects on most teams boards.

Peterson’s statistics might not wow you (20.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals in 29 minutes a game on 43.8% from the field and 38.2% from three) but watching him play, it’s unbelievable how smooth he is offensively.  He has a similar vibe to me as Kawhi Leonard, in that he doesn’t outwardly show a ton of emotion, and he almost looks bored at times with how easy things are for him.  I don’t think Peterson will ever be the fiery leader type, but he absolutely has it in him to be your team’s best player, and if this year was him playing on just one healthy leg, I would hate to be the team that passes on him just to watch him get healthy and turn into a two-way monster.

3. Cameron Boozer, PF, Duke

Cameron Boozer is easily the most boring of the top prospects, but his talent is also undeniable.  He isn’t flashy but there’s no arguing with the production or the results.  Boozer wins, and has done so at every level so far in his career as the best player for his teams.  That hasn’t changed so far at Duke, where the Blue Devils are now 34-2, with their only losses of the season being a one point loss to Texas Tech and a three point loss to North Carolina.  Boozer is the focal point of everything Duke does.  He’s their leading scorer (22.4 points on 56.3% from the field and 39.8% from three), leading rebounder (10.3 rebounds), and leading passer (4.2 assists).  He’s not a shot blocker (just 0.6 a game) but he’s also second on the Blue Devils in steals at 1.5 a game, a great number for a big man.

I’ve seen some fans and analyst be wary of Boozer because of past production from Duke guys that didn’t pan out in the league like Mavin Bagley or Jahlil Okafor.  Boozer is a far different player from both of those guys.  He’s more polished than Bagley, and more mobile than Okafor.  He’s a better playmaker than both of them, and while he’s not a shotblocker, has good defensive instincts.  If you were to compare him to any former Duke big man, Paolo Banchero would be a closer comparison, but Boozer has been better in every category than Banchero was in college. I do think Boozer would need to be built around a little more differently than some of these other guys, but I think any team drafting him will end up with a #1 option they can rely on.

Tier 2 – Happy as long as we didn’t pass on one of the above guys

4. Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas

Acuff has been the biggest riser in both my personal draft board and probably most people’s draft boards over the last month.  This draft has several excellent Point Guard prospects, but in my mind, Acuff has emerged at the top as a guy that I feel can be one of the best Point Guards in the league, in the same vein that Damian Lillard once was.  Acuff was both the leading scorer (23.3 points on 48.6% from the field and 44.6% from three) and passer (6.5 points) in the SEC this year, and he’s been showing both talents off so far in the tourney, with a 36 point game against High Point, including the dagger three that basically sealed the game.  By far the highlight of his season was a 49 point performance against Alabama in which he played all 50 minutes of an overtime game. It was an NCAA record for points scored by a Freshman in a Division I game.

Now, Acuff has serious deficiencies as a defender (just look at how 5’10 High Point guard Rob Martin blew by him routinely en route to his own 30 point game), but he’s so good on the other end I’m almost willing to forgive that.  That’s also something that could improve with time, but even if it doesn’t, if his offense is this good, you can find pieces to put around him that will mitigate those problems a lot easier than you could find this level of scoring and shooting.  I think this Kings team really needs an Alpha, and Acuff would bring that mentality from Day 1.

5. Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina

Wilson unfortunately broke his hand in early February and had his season cut shot, but before that he was showing that he was one of the most impactful players in the country, averaging 19.8 points on 57.8% from the field, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks in 31.3 minutes per game.  One of his final games of the season was in that North Carolina upset win over rival Duke and Cameron Boozer, and Wilson looked like the better player in that game, scoring 23 points on 8 of 12 from the field.

Wilson might be the best two-way player in the draft, as the only other prospect in the draft that averages at least 19 points and 1.4 steals and blocks is Junior JT Toppin from Texas Tech (who also unfortunately had his season cut short due to injury).  I can see a case for Wilson as having higher upside than someone like Boozer thanks to his athleticism and defensive chops, but he also has a lot more work to do on the offensive end of the ball in my opinion.  Wilson hasn’t shown much consistency as an outside shooter yet, shooting just 25.9% from three on 1.1 attempts a game and shooting just 71.3% from the free throw line as well.  He’s incredibly efficient around the basket (his 67 dunks led the ACC despite missing the entire last month and a half) but he’ll need to be able to expand his range to be more effective on that end of the court. He’s still incredibly young, so he can definitely do it, but I do think he is more in the vein of a complementary piece than an outright star.

Tier 3 – Ok, Fine

6. Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston

Many people have Flemings rated as the best Point Guard in the draft, and it’s easy to see why.  As the lead guard for Houston, Flemings has led the Cougars to a 30-6 record and a #2 seed. He’s leading the team in scoring (16.2 points on 47.8% from the field and 38.8% from three), passing (5.2 assists) and steals (1.6 steals).  Watching Flemings play, it’s hard not to make comparisons to the last great Kings Point Guard, De’Aaron Fox.  Flemings is also incredibly quick, favors the midrange, and brings it on the defensive side of the ball.

Flemings has had huge games in college this season, including a 42 point performance against Texas Tech, but he’s also had games in which he’s disappeared or not been nearly as impactful.  Flemings has eight games this season where he’s scored in just single digits.  Everyone above him on this list had zero such games.  While I do think Flemings has the makings of an excellent two-way guard, can he be consistent enough to be the type of star that the Kings need?

7. Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville

Brown rounds out the list of the top point guards in the lottery, and I do think that if the Kings had their choice on position they’d most like to fix long term, it’d be at Point Guard.  However, Brown is the one I’d be least excited to take.

Brown had an excellent college season for Louisville, averaging 18.2 points, 4.7 assists and 1.2 steals despite dealing with a back injury that caused him to miss several games this season.  He’s got phenomenal size for a PG at 6’5, but is pretty skinny for being that tall and hasn’t showcased the same defensive effort as someone like Flemings has.  He’s a good scorer, but he’s also incredibly streaky.  He shoots the most threes of any freshman at 7.6 a game, but shot just 34.4% from three.  That kind of volume and variance lead to games like against Southern Methodist, where he scored 29 points while shooting 7 of 10 from three, or like against their tourney ending loss to Clemson, where he scored just 5 points and shot 0-6 from distance.

While he’s a willing passer, Brown seems to me to be more a Point Guard in the same way that someone like Jordan Poole is a Point Guard, someone who is looking for his shot first and foremost, and isn’t efficient enough to truly justify it. He’d need a lot more consistency and discipline to truly become a franchise guy and I’m not sure an unstructured environment like Sacramento is going to encourage his best habits and development.

8. Keaton Wagler, SG, Illinois

I’m a sucker for shooters, and Wagler profiles as one of the better shooters in this draft, averaging 17.8 points a game while shooting 45% from the field and 40.8% from three on 5.8 attempts a game. He’s not a one dimensional player either, as he’s a very solid playmaker in his own right, averaging 4.4 assists to just 1.8 turnovers a game.  Wagler to me projects the least of any of these guys to be a star however, and that’s what the Kings need the most.  He seems like a souped up version of Kevin Huerter, and that’s someone who can be a very good player, but the Kings would likely still be searching for a lead guy.  At this point in the draft, star power is much more of a gamble however, and this team desperately needs more shooting that Wagler can provide in spades.

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After that are a bunch of guys that I haven’t spent nearly as much time watching aside from just looking at their stats. To be honest, I really don’t want to have to think about anyone outside of the first two tiers on this list after the season we just had. If the time comes for the draft and we do have to be considering players that aren’t on this list, we’re in trouble.  The Kings really need a star, and their best chance at finding one will come this June, lottery gods willing.