For two seasons, Sacramento’s starting lineup has looked very similar for the most part aside from injuries:
PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Kevin Huerter
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Harrison Barnes
C: Domantas Sabonis
There has been some variation here and there, mostly due to injury, such as Keon Ellis taking the starting Shooting Guard spot after Kevin Huerter went down with injury.
This season will definitely be different with the addition of DeMar DeRozan and exit of Harrison Barnes, but the only real decision will likely be who starts at Shooting Guard.
The seemingly obvious choice is to run a similar lineup as to how the Kings ended up towards the end of the season, with Keon Ellis retaining his starting spot. Ellis’ defense is much needed in the starting lineup, and he doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. Ellis doesn’t have as much experience as someone like a Kevin Huerter at spacing the floor or running off ball screens, but he’s proven to be a more than capable shooter so far, shooting 41.7% from three last season (including 40.4% in the 21 games he started and played decent minutes in). If I were a betting man, this is the lineup I think Coach Brown will start the year with.
Another option is returning Kevin Huerter to his role as the starting Shooting Guard. Huerter has more experience playing off the ball, has good chemistry with Domantas Sabonis in the dribble hand-off game and provides slightly better size than Ellis. But Huerter seemed to be at odds with Coach Brown for much of the year last season even before the injury, particularly due to his defensive struggles. I think Huerter would be better served coming in off the bench where he can take a more active role as a scorer and secondary playmaker.
Malik Monk is doubtless the most talented option and has also made clear in the past that he’d like to start. There was some speculation when the Kings were able to re-sign him that they had made him assurances he would start going forward, but that was quickly made clear that was not the case. Monk’s fit as the 6th man still makes too much sense for this roster as currently constructed. Monk’s greatest attributes are as a scorer and playmaker, both best applied in a bench role. Still, I expect to see Monk on the floor finishing a lot of games, and likely playing the most minutes of all Sacramento’s guards aside from De’Aaron Fox.
Finally, the Kings could go with a more unorthodox approach and start DeRozan at Shooting Guard and bring Trey Lyles into the starting lineup to add more size. If DeRozan were younger and more spry, I could see this being a realistic option, but it’s hard to see now, especially with Sacramento’s lack of depth at wing. I have no doubt we’ll see this lineup played at times, likely against bigger teams, but not as a full time starting unit.
With De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis commanding the majority of the touches offensively, I think the best option for the Kings is to go with their best combination of defense and shooting around them which points to Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis, at least with how this roster is currently constructed.
I’ll have serious doubts about MB if it’s not the obvious lineups and 9 man rotation of:
Fox
Keon
Murray
Derozan
Sabonis
Monk – guard
Huerter – wing
Lyles – versatile wing/big
Len – big
Add:
Devin Carter (around February, post ASG – last 20-25 games) – guard/wing
Jordan McLaughlin – guard
we agree. J Mac might get run for Fox to allow Monk to shoot.
Concur.
As said in the previous podcast with Jerry, we probably dodged a bullet with the fact that Huerter likely won’t be in game shape at the start of the season. I think there was a significant chance Brown would otherwise have stuck with him as the starter.
Reposting this from the other thread. Here is what basketball reference projects for Keon Ellis this season:
12.4 / 4.9 / 3.3 on 46.9%/41.7%/74.8% with 1.8 stls, 1 blk, and 1.7 TOs per game.
For additional reference, here’s what All-Defense second team player Alex Caruso posted last season:
10.1 / 3.8 / 3.5 on 46.8%/40.8%/76.0% with 1.7stls, 1 blk, and 1.4 TOs per game.
If this is who Keon “Ellis Island” Ellis will be this season, he precisely fills the gaps of the Fox/DDR/Sabonis three-headed monster and profiles as the glue man to a championship caliber team.
What does basketball reference project for Huerter? Monk?
Nice dig with the comparison, and yes, Ellis is an ideal gap-filler with the three main cogs.
Derozan and Ellis have played together as much as Sabonis, Fox, and Derozan have played together.
I was referring to Keegan, Fox and Sabonis, but thanks so much for chiming in, ABB.
This is the only time anyone has ever mentioned Keegan instead of Derozan as part of the core three. I have read your posts in which you describe Derozan as part of the core.
Why have you changed your mind and taken this lone wolf view of the team?
Because DeRozan has never played a single game for the Kings?
Your reflexive contrarian takes could possibly be interesting if you ever managed to slap together an insightful comment about, well, anything.
Besides, a third account is legendarily hacky, Bags.
Makes sense. Appreciate the explanation.
The big assumption is that Ellis fits in with the three headed monster that has never been on the same basketball court together. I love Ellis but we cannot ignore some basic facts of life.
The projections are per 36 min. Ellis will be somewhere around 24min/game so the raw data will drop by one third.
So the real projection should be somewhere in this vicinity
8.3 / 3.3 / 2.2 on 46.9%/41.7%/74.8% with 1.2 stls, 0.7 blk, and 1.1 TOs per game
Has the per 36 held true for the majority of players?
Projections never hold true, much less projections per 36.
Minimus and Maximus walked into a bar …
We need someone called Medius.
Centerus
You can just refer to both as Mediocre.
The starting line up for the majority of the NBA would change overnight if the per 36 determined it.
Per 36 for Monk?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2025.htmlhttps://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2025.html
You can click on Monk’s name and it will take you to Monk’s page. His 2024-2025 projection is almost at the top of the page.
Basketball reference has nice layout. It displays a player’s entire career in one page which is nice to see.
I think we’ll see Jalen McDaniels more than expected when Trey Lyles isn’t feeling it. He was a quiet move, but I think Monte actually likes him as a piece.
Astute observation. I also think McDaniels may quietly be a more important piece than we expect.
I dunno.
He’s listed as having a jersey with #2.
But the Sacramento Kings retired #2 (Mitchell James “Rock” Richmond III).
But either way, I don’t see Jalen (not Jaden) as a starter.
I also don’t see him as a starter, but I speculate that we see Jordan McLaughlin more than expected and more than McDaniels.
I think they have him listed as #2 because that was his number in Toronto. He obviously can’t have #2 in Sac.
I hope so but what I have seen is not impressive. Is he better than Edwards?
Jerry says good defender but can’t shoot.
Huerter not being ready for the season opener is an opportunity. The opportunity to start Monk and see how that works out. Gives Monk the opportunity and allows us to see what Ellis is as a sixth man. If it works out we could end up with Heurter backing up Monk and Ellis as consistent sixth man.
Take the guy who excels as a sixth man and make him a starter, then take a player who has excelled with the Sacramento starters and make him the sixth man. This is just fuckery for fuckery’s sake.
And it may make sense at some point to try that out, or necessary due to injuries, but even in a limited run of games, the effect Ellis has had on the defensive numbers is far too substantial to just dick around with arbitrarily. Are you really going to tax Fox with covering the opponent’s best guard from the jump in order to hide Monk’s deficiencies in that regard?
Then you’re limiting Monk’s ability to make up for his defense, because he likely gets fewer touches with the starters than he does as sixth man.
I don’t know if Brown was thinking about reinstating Huerter had the latter been ready to start the season, but the injury makes it incredibly easy for Brown to do the right thing. I don’t think Monk is even in the conversation, and given the makeup of the roster, he shouldn’t be. It isn’t an issue of lack of talent, merely one of playing to your advantages. That’s what good coaches do.
Monk has said openly he would like to start. When the game is on the line Brown plays Monk with the starters. The best team on the floor has always included Monk. Good coaches know that.
Probably as like last year Monk will be on the floor in the 4th. quarter if he is on his game. He will not be a starter at the beginning even if he would like to start. Don’t mess with sucess. Malik Monk is the best sixth man ib basketball.
But with Huerter out and a desire to start do they put him in the first rotation?
On paper he can do it.
Ellis, not Monk, started the handful of games between Huerter’s injury and Monk’s injury. Do you think Monk didn’t want to start those games?
Different team that was already in a groove with Monk as the sixth man and closing player. Monk was not talking about starting then either.
I like Ellis but Monk might be the guy sometimes.
in the fourth quarter
no
Ellis had success as starter. Monk had success as 6th man
The infatuation with Ellis has expanded the value of his short stint playing as a starter only because Huerter and Monk were injured. A few weeks of statistics now somehow out weigh the entire careers of Huerter and Monk. Ellis is a great find but not one that bends time and reality.
I think Ellis gets the nod to start but Monk may get a few games too.
Except when he subs in offense/defense lineups, where there’s plenty of Keon for everyone.
Keon played in less than thirty games and in that stretch they moved out of the play off race because they did not have Monk.
Is their plenty of Ellis?
Hopefully there is.
You nailed it, Andy. Someone here (and their new friend who writes with a similar style and seems to like all of their new friend’s posts) incessantly beats the drum of Monk starting.
Where is the defense if Monk joins the starting lineup? At best, that lineup barely breaks into the positive in terms of net rating.
Where does the offense and playmaking come from off the bench?
I have been trying to refrain from engaging in ABB’s nonsense in whatever form they’ve decided to take here. But it still gets frustrating to watch the pro-Ellis-in-the-starting-lineup camp provide actual details on why it works while ABB backs up their argument with…uh…Monk’s “desire” to start. You know who else desires to start? Every bench in the NBA.
Mike Brown is going to shut down this stupid concept in late October. Monk is super valuable off the bench and there really isn’t any data to support him starting, as far as I can tell. Suggestions to the contrary are just fuckery if they aren’t backed with data.
yes !
Monk has the right tools to be 6th man. Keon has the right tools to play next to Fox as a starter.
Monk said he wants to start but they all say that. He wants to win.
He will finish
I said a few threads back that I might get annoying with this point and apologized upfront. Just making that known before I get into it yet again. 😉
I think Huerter is clearly the best option to become the backup 3 to DeRozan. 18 minutes a night with DeRozan getting 30. Why do I see this as the best path? The main reason is simply, playing your best players. Huerter backing up Monk and Ellis is not utilizing the talent of Huerter to its fullest extent. Additionally, designating Huerter as the backup SF places him in a more advantageous defensive matchup running against other reserve SF’ that he is clearly more talented and sophisticated then on most nights. It also places him in a better rebounding position which is something red velvet is quite good at. Lastly, it places him in the corner for several more wide open corner threes coming from Mike Browns favorite thing – “spray threes” as dimes from Fox, DeRozan and Ox will be abundant.
I ask anyone reading this. If Huerter isn’t backing up DeRozan at SF then who is?
I see one reasonable answer to that and several others that are stretching the rotation to 11+ guys a night which I would argue as would many people much more educated in the NBA than I am, is not ideal. The one reasonable answer I see is Keegan who starts at PF sliding over to SF when DeRozan takes a rest and Lyles coming in to play PF. The other answer, which I see as a stretch, is McDaniels.
Going off the one reasonable answer I outlined above you would be seeing Monk as the main backup “PG” to Fox. To clarify, Huerter and Ellis strictly playing SG while Monk goes back and forth between SG and PG. Spock switching between SF and PF, Lyle’s switching between PF and Center and monk switching between SG and PG. it’s reasonable to say, that’s your optimal 8 man rotation/playoff series rotation. If you expand that to a 10 man rotation which I tend to see as the more common regular season rotation, you’re looking at McLaughlin strictly backing up Fox at PG, Huerter strictly backing up DeRozan at SF, Lyles strictly backing up Spock at PF and Len strictly backing up The Ox at Center.
Regular season minutes looking something like this:
PG: Fox 34, McLaughlin 14
SG: Ellis 22, Monk 26
SF: DeRozan 30, Huerter 18
PF: Spock 32, Lyle’s 16
C: Ox 34, Len 14
Playoff minutes looking like this:
PG: Fox 36, Monk 12
SG: Monk 14, Ellis 22, Huerter 12
SF: DeRozan 34, Huerter 10, Spock 4
PF: Spock 30, Lyles 18
C: OX 34, Len 10, Lyle’s 4
Obviously this is simplifying a 10 man rotation to exact minutes that each night carries a ton of nuance in regards to matchups, foul trouble and fatigue+injury. However, if we’re analyzing the team over an 82 game season it helps to break things down and simplify in these terms.
That’s one of the big issues with this roster. We have a glut of guards, we have some centers, and we have a bif doughnut size hole at both forward spots. One is a 6″5 SG whose declining lateral speed makes it difficult to hang with guards anymore. The other is a 6″8, not very physical SF who is now forced to play PF. With the exception of Lyles, who can strictly hang with PF’s, we don’t have adequate backups at F.
Monte has once again created an imbalanced roster. Do we have enough talent to overcome that imbalance? I hope so.
lDerozan probably won’t play SG but SF which will help in playing defense. Murray is the second best defender we have and after Ellis will defend their second best offensive player unless if that’s a point guard where Fox can hold his own. Keegan is not a whimp but has proven he can defend and rebound. next to Sabonis. I will agree with you Keegan is best suited at SF but in contrast can also be an effective PF.
This is why I love the idea of Ellis in the starting lineup. Having two legit defensive options – one to defend the opponent’s best G and one to defend the opponent’s best F is a luxury the Kings haven’t had in a long time.
At the same time, there are going to be teams that will exploit the Kings’ lack of size up front. However, I am happy to be in wait and see mode because the starting defense is improving overall. Monte has many pieces he can move in the season to find a big player who can impact the team.
Yes, the lack of size is worrying. If Keegan has to pick up the opponent’s shifty small forward, does that mean that DDr will have to defend a 6″9/6″11 PF?
Also, it seems to me that Brown likes his defenders to switch. In that case, good teams will hunt the mismatches.
Position-less small ball.
Next level.
Fox, DeMar, Keegan and Domas are a lock to start or close enough to it. Keon, Monk, or Huerter are the main candidates to fill the remaining starting spot. All assuming health and a few other things lol.
So the question becomes, who fits best with the skill sets of the locked in starters?
Monk could be a primary playmaker, Huerter could be a secondary one, and Keon hasn’t shown that at the NBA yet. But with the starters having Sabonis and Fox and to a lesser extent DeRozan, they don’t need another great playmaker or even another good one among the starters. They are set with the big three.
Keon shoots well on drives but makes few of them, Huerter also does few but shoots poorly, and the Monk is not that efficient but gets a lot of points. Fox and DeRozan can get a solid amount of points from drives adding to that versatility. I’m not sure any more is needed from the starters.
Keon in a small sample size is good on catch and shoots. His effective FG% was 61% indicating he delivered on his 3s. Monk was okay and Kevin had an off year. A good stand-still shooter to command a defender or someone lifting off the corner as Fox/DeMar drives in would be good with the starters.
Keon provides good perimeter defense. Sabonis’s def. FG% is not ideal. Keegan is better but won’t contest as many shots. Keon might help make the bigs’ job easier with his perimeter D. Huerter was attacked last season, and Monk is not noted as good. Furthermore, DeRozan has the reputation of a bad defender. Fox led the league in steals but the jury is still out on is he good at POA and another question is do you want your offensive star having to defend the best opposing guard?
On the intangibles, Mike Brown has staggered Sabonis and Fox. Fox comes out “early”, Sabonis is the last starter to come out at which time Fox comes back in. This has meant the Kentucky boys have played a lot together. That probably is a benefit. Of course, if Monk starts they would play together too, but perhaps not as much if Fox is still staggered. Huerter has had good chemistry with Sabonis. He wouldn’t see much of Sabonis if he doesn’t start. He would just have to find another way of making a difference.
I’d go with Keon. He fits offensively and defensively. You don’t need your fifth best player to be your fifth starter.
This. See Doug Christie and Bruce Bowan as an example. If I’m not mistaken the later won multiple titles, all-nba defensive honors, yet never averaged more than 8 points per game.
I think it’s pretty clear that offense won’t be a problem for this year’s roster. It’s the defense that continually needs help.
Here’s a real brain cramp that I don’t know the answer to definitively. Do any of you?…
who is a better defender as of right now, September 2024. Harrison Barnes or Demar DeRozan?
we all know Harrison Barnes had a reputation of being a good defender but as kings fans we also know that reputation was far from the reality. Two seasons ago Harrison Barnes was (if I recall correctly) statistically the worst defender on the sacramento kings who I believe were ranked as low as or even lower than 25th in the league. To say the least, that’s rough.
what I’m getting at here is really, how much worse of a defender on PF’s and SF’s is DeRozan in comparison to Barnes? Now, not in 2016
did the defense get any worse with Barnes being replaced by DeRozan? Obviously the offense got objectively much better. A consistent, counted on additional 10 points more per game with below average defense (forget the Ellis affect for sake of conversation as he didn’t appear until the last 20 games) and how many more wins would the kings have had at game 69 of the 2023/24 season. I’d wager conservatively at least 5 more wins. That alone puts the kings into the 5 or 6 spot in the playoffs.
HERE is a side by side stat comparison of Barnes and DeRozan for just last season.
I’d say DDR was the better player in every facet of the game, other than outside shooting, but that was expected. He is clearly better as a facilitator and is quite a bit of the better defender (which surprised me).
National podcasters and pundits focus on the bad defense that DeRozan brings, but they don’t seem to understand that Barnes was just as bad. Sobthey come to the conclusion that the Kings got worse defensively.
Just shows me that they don’t really do much research, just speak conjecture and parrot what others say.
Barnes was terrible defensively, and not that good offensively (except high 3pt percentage). DeRozan may be just as bad a defender, but he brings so much more offensively.
Amazing! Thank you for this link to the side by side.
Crazy. So the kings got better offensively and defensively according to the numbers and half of that statement is not only never mentioned it’s actually told in the complete opposite of reality.
I agree Keon should start. He deserves it. Since Domas plays the most minutes Huerter at backup SF will have plenty of time working with him. Monk is the best sixth man in the league and should stay where he is.
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