As the calendar turns to September, it’s time again for our 30Q Series! Each day we’ll discuss a question about the upcoming season for the Sacramento Kings.
Last season was incredibly fun, probably the most fun I’ve ever had as a Kings fan. Everything seemed to go right, from the product on the court to off the court introductions like the Beam. After 16 years of ineptitude, Kings fans finally had a team they could take pride in.
Part of the fun was in how surprising last year’s team was. Sure, they were supposed to be better, but nobody in their right mind had them winning the Pacific Division and getting the 3rd seed in the West. Kings fans went viral before the season for even simply declaring that we’d get 40 wins; That’s how low the bar was set.
But this year, the Kings aren’t going to be a surprise to anybody. Expectations have been set and the NBA is nothing if not a “what have you done for me lately” league. Last year, it seemed a milestone was being broken every other week. First time over .500 in this long, first time back in the playoffs in that long, etc. Even going seven games against a lower seed and losing at home was seen as an accomplishment because of how out of nowhere Sacramento’s ascension seemed.
This year though, the goal posts have moved. Merely reaching the playoffs won’t be enough. The Kings are being viewed as a serious team now, and serious teams need to be serious threats to contend deep into May and be the last team standing. Nobody truly has the Kings as a contender yet, but that is the ultimate end goal and the Kings are now on that path once again. Mere repeats of last season’s successes will be seen through a new, more critical lens if the Kings can’t get past the first round or deeper.
When a team first makes the playoffs after a long drought, improvement is expected to be linear. The Kings won 48 games last season, so now they’ll be expected to win 50+. That’s hardly a guaranteed trajectory however. Last season’s Kings team was definitely helped by some good luck, particularly on the health front Sacramento’s starting lineup played 900 minutes together last season, 162 more than the next five man rotation in the league. The rest of the Pacific Division was hardly as lucky; LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins all missed 20 or more games during the season. Meanwhile, De’Aaron Fox played the fewest games of any Sacramento starter and he still played 73 games. In fact, Sacramento’s top eight players in minutes played last year all played 73 or more games. That’s a level of injury luck that is rarely seen.
The Kings largely opted to run it back this year, with their only major additions being bringing in EuroLeague MVP Sasha Vezenkov. Vezenkov should fit right into Sacramento’s high powered offense, but offense was not an issue for the Kings last year; In fact, they set the NBA record for Offensive Rating. It’s the other end of the floor that left much to be desired, as the Kings were still near the bottom of the league in terms of defensive impact, finishing 25th in Defensive Rating. There is some room for cautious optimism that despite no major personnel changes, this team does have the capability of defending at a much higher level. In their seven game series against the Warriors, another high powered offense, the Kings posted a Defensive Rating of 111.6, which put them in the top half of all playoff teams last season. In the regular season, that type of defense would have had them ranked 6th. Now the playoffs are far different than the regular season what with coaching adjustments and playing the same opponent, but this team is better on that end of the court than they showed last season and if they hope to do even just as well as they did last year if not better, they’ll need to show it over the course of an entire season and not just a few weeks.
Perhaps the biggest thing going for Sacramento is their continuity. The Kings largely went with an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it approach” this offseason, bringing back all of their top rotation players and coaching staff. Mike Brown will have to do far less teaching this year and the Kings have a very nice foundation to build on. Hopefully last season’s success has given this team a taste for victory and a blueprint for what it takes to succeed so that now they can go in and show that last year wasn’t just a fluke.
Despite this being the shortest offseason the Kings have had in 16 years, it has felt like the longest. I am just that excited to see these guys back in action, ready to build on the foundation they laid last year. Let’s keep that beam lit all season long, and then quite a bit after.
The higher expectations are a mixed bag, as many have sensibly mentioned the possibility that the Kings will be a better team, and still not win as many games. The Pacific division is a wasp’s nest, and it will exact a cost in the new season that didn’t need to be paid in the last.
You’ve got the other contending suspects like Denver, and there’s good reason to believe that OKC, Utah, and even San Antonio & Houston will be much more of a slog, as talent has been added. Dallas is also likely to be better. It’s going to be a fight.
If Sacramento can win the games “that they’re supposed to win,” then it may be possible to match or exceed the win total from last season. They dumped a fair number of gimmes in ’22-’23, and that’s a great place to improve in order to stay competitive with these monsters out west.
If the defense can be improved, even to only fifteenth or twentieth in the league, that would make the Kings a decently scary match-up.
West will be tougher. Even the “bad” teams will win games. Kings did blow a few to sub-par teams last year. If they can clean that up (will not be perfect) that will help offset the victories over the non-injured West.
Teams will be “up” for the Kings and better prepared but the Kings are a tough team to beat given the efficient and different offense. I think better team, better prepared for post season and same or less wins
Kings have more depth than other teams, it seems and that helps the injury risk thing.
Depends on high you want the expectations to be. If you put them better than last year then yes they will be better. Will they exceed more than 48 wins? Yes they will. The biggest question for any team is will they stay healthy? The west is better than last year but again its comes down to the health of your best players.
The interesting thing is that a lot of the lower ranked teams have improved while the higher ranked teams have basically remained as good as they were, potentially creating a lot more parity.
I could see 1 through 8 being much more closely grouped together than the last few years. Possibly even to the point where it could take fewer games to be in the top four while the bottom four are constantly nipping at their heels.
I anticipate that health is still going to be a big deciding factor. I also suspect that after seeing lower ranked teams go deeper in the playoffs that we might see more teams resting their starters and worrying less about regular season rankings other than trying to avoid the play-in.
Should be a wild season.
Fully agree – it’s a parity party.
IIRC – 13 teams were shuffling for the 8 slots with 15 games to go.
Every game matters!
The start of the 30Q series means that the Kings season is just around the corner…and we actually have a good team to look forward to for once!
October 25th can not come soon enough.
I’m SO excited for this season but those ticket prices. Oh Benevolent Lord Vivek are ye taking revenge on us at last for all the Stauskus memes?
First, woohoo! Glad to see 30Q back in the rotation. That means NBA basketball be will back before we know it!
As to expectations, I think it is going to be very hard to match last season. As Akis mentioned, the Kings had a lot of luck. I’d also add a bit of surprise. Sac had been so bad for so long, I can’t help but imagine most other teams came into town expecting an easy win. The real truth is, the West is just so deep. 48 wins isn’t getting the Kings the 3rd seed again. It might get you the 7th seed but that’s about it.
But pulled prediction: Denver, PHX, Clips, Lakers, and Warriors are likely to be ahead of the Kings in the standings…if their health holds out. Pels, Grizz, Minny, and Dallas are wild cards that could swing either way. Then there is OKC, Houston and Utah who looking to make a Kings like jump.
I think it is entirely possible that the Kings finish last in their division and still make the playoffs, or they could also finish 12th or worse if the injury bug bites. In the end, I’d be pleasantly surprised if they finish in the top 5 of the West, and I’d also call that exceeding expectations.
I earnestly believe the Kings are favorites to win the Pacific division. Lakers and Phoenix are built to win 4 out of 7 game series, not cruise through the regular season.
The Kings have arguably the best depth in the league, none of our top rotation players have severe injury histories, AND they’re all in their prime. Between injuries and load management, I can’t see anyone in the Pacific keeping up with us. That doesn’t mean we’re the best team in the division, just the most durable and well oiled.
The Kings starting 5 played a combined 65 games together. The second place team to have all 5 starters were the Hawks at 44 games. Denver, who were the #1 seed were second in games played in the West with their starting 5 at 41. The Kings had by far and away the best injury luck in the league. Could that repeat next season? Perhaps, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Also for reference the most games played by starting 5 over the previous 5 seasons:
2021-22: Utah 42 games
2020-21: PHX 52 games
2019-20: Utah 47 games
2018-19: Orlando 65 games (their only playoff appearance in the last decade)
2017-18: Hornets 56 games
For more reference here are the starting 5 lineups games played in the Pacific last season:
Warriors: 27 games
Lakers: 11 games (LBJ and Anthony Davis played in just 36 games together)
Clippers: 13 games
PHX: 9 games pre Durant trade and 8 games after the Durant trade
I feel if any of those teams are remotely healthier and the Kings aren’t next season, it’s going to be very hard to win the Pacific.
Of course luck has something to do with it, but roster construction is also part of it. The Kings are simply better constructed to withstand bumps in the road.
Who’s backing up the Suns starting 5 if they go down? Hell, who’s filling in the 18 mpg when Beal, Booker, KD and Ayton aren’t playing? Chimezie? C’mon….
Sabonis is the only person who would represent a catastrophic problem if he misses extended time. Every other position the Kings have 1-2 guys I’d trust to give us some quality rotation minutes. In the regular season, that counts for more than whether your starting 5 looks better or not on paper. And even at that, I’d take our starting 5 over a good portion of the league.
We don’t have an AD, Zion, Kawhi, type that we need to play consistent minutes. I’d wager our starting 5 plays more games together next season than any division rivals once again. It’s no mistake they did last season.
Agreed, depth matters in the regular season and the Kings have it. Teams like the duds, suns and lakers don’t (no I’m not buying the hype of the lakers offseason).
I think you really underestimate the Suns. They had a very solid summer. They added Eric Gordon, Bates-Diop, Yuta, and Eubanks to their bench. Those are some guys some of us Kings fans wanted to add to Sac’s bench. Devin Booker also played a career low in games played last season.
I agree the Kings have depth, but I don’t feel you can simultaneously say it was luck and you expect it to happen again. Part of that luck of health for the Kings was also the bad luck of other teams injuries. The Kings caught a bit of lightening in a bottle.
I also agree that without Sabonis the Kings are dead in the water, but I’d add Fox to the equation as a major problem for the Kings if he misses time. I’m not as confident his production can be replaced, especially with only Mitchell as the backup PG. Both Fox and Sabonis played a ton of games last season. Fox played in 73 games last season when it the previous 3 he didn’t surpass 60 games played. There was a TON of luck last season. I’m all for fingers crossed but remain prepared for a bit of a reality check.
This an incredibly mediocre list of guys that will all be asked to play 30+ minutes at some point during this upcoming season. If these guys wanted to play Monk, Duarte, Vezenkov and Lyles in a 4v4 for the fate of the division I think they’d get absolutely wrecked.
Perhaps 16 years of misery have left you waiting for the other shoe to drop, but I see nothing but good news for this team. Bron, Curry, Klay, Dray, Kawhi, PG, KD, AD, Russ all another year older. Sabonis, Fox and Co. all entering their peaks. Another year to gel. A good roster that’s added the Euroleague MVP. COTY and EOTY.
All the indicators for the Kings seem to read “Good Team Getting Better” and the other teams’ indicators read “Championship or Supernova.” (spoiler: they’re not all going to be champions).
I’m in the opposite camp. I see regression coming for the old guard (lakers, clips, suns, duds). I think these teams are low seeds to play-ins. The new guard has arrived and that includes the Kings.
IMO, the Kings were clearly the better team against the duds in the playoffs, but experience and injuries nullified that.
There’s no longer some perceived gap betwixt the up and coming teams and the oldies.
I see the Nugs, Kings, Grizz and even Pels as high seeds.
Mike Brown to this Kings roster in training camp:
“Who wants a shot at backup center this year?”
30Qs is back, we’re getting closer to the season!!!!
If Keegan Murray makes any kind of major leap it’s not us who needs to worry…
Also if Vezenkov fits in IMO he will eventually take over for Barnes. They both need improvement on defense but Sasha is a better shooter and rebounder than Barnes. At 6′ 9″ he could play at the 4 letting Murray play the 3 which IMO is where he should be. My two concerns are team health and backup center.
I think Vezenkov and Keegan’s growth are going to be the key factors to the Kings remaining in the top of the West. I don’t expect improved production from anyone else. Those two will be the difference makers.
A long shot could be Chris Duarte. If he can play like his first year he could improve as a 3 and D player. Could be a second unit SF along side Mitchell and Monk.
I know its a week later and this will likely go unread, but the issue I have with this the idea of Vezenkov taking over for Barnes is that Vezenkov is basically the same age as Barnes, and has a lot to do to just earn his spot in the rotation first. If he does so, great, but I need to see what he does on an NBA floor before I get too excited.
Another potential 30Q entry: Can the Kings fans handle higher expectations?
I have no clue what this season will bring, and that is equal part exciting and terrifying. Please don’t break my heart, Kings.
It’s September……………
And good to see those 30Q……..
Just cannot wait to see the team play again…
Last season was a surprise…..
And this season’s goal is the WIN the NBA CHAMPION !!!!!!!
I thought about this a lot this morning (and afternoon, as you’ll see). Last year I did a spreadsheet comparing data for coaches who turned around franchises. This year, I made one about the 7 year window of teams breaking a playoff drought, and I found some interesting things.
My methodology was basically this. If a team has missed the playoffs for at least 3 straight years, what do those three previous years look like, what does the drought breaking year look like, and what can we tell about the next 3 years based on the data? I call year “D” the year that the drought ends, and years A-C are the 3 years of missing playoffs before while years E-G are the three years after breaking the drought no matter the outcome. As you might guess, there’s a lot to unpack. Here are a few tidbits that came up for me:
* There are 79 seasons that fall into this category since Bill Russel retired in 1970 (My arbitrary-ish cut off point. I thought about the merger, but opted for this becuase Bill Russel’s Celtics were dominant in a way no other player or team has been. Jordan could have been if he wasn’t suspended for gambling in 1994. I digress.
* Of those teams, this year’s Kings are almost dead center (44th/79) for what how big a jump they took in win% over the previous 3 years to get into the playoffs. We look at it and go “Wow! We went from averaging 30 wins to getting 48! That’s nuts!” In terms of drought breaking, it’s about average. Same with single year average (53/79) I think that’s a good thing for us. It means we track with teams who are making a jump.
* Only a handful of teams have ever been worse for the 3 years after making the playoffs than they were the 3 years before they made it. Even if we regressed some and averaged just 46 wins the next 3 years, we’d be pretty much dead center historically. If we jumped up, and averaged say, 51 wins a year we’d still only be in the 75th quartile for teams historically in terms of how much we grew year over year. And, again, historically, making a sustained huge jump isn’t the end-all-be-all of dynastic aspirations. Yes, The Warriors top the list with a 40% jump from years, but they also set two of the top seven regular seasons all time in that window. Teams that over the next 3 years fared worse than the 46 wins per year I project on the low end for us but continued on for a while without creating another drought include the badboy pistions, Jordan’s Bulls, The Rockets and Sonics who both saw 6 conference championship series and a ring over the next 2 decades before playoff droughts started, and the current iteration of the Nuggets. Even if we don’t go supernova right now, we’re on a path to sustained growth with a good core.
* That said, we still are to 25 all-time for team record the season a drought is broken. All but 6 of those teams would go on to reach at least one conference final before a new playoff drought started. Those teams also represent six championship rings and which is pretty rarified air. Those teams also represent 25 finals appearances during their windows of relativity.
* Based on my kinda subjective measures, our closest historical comps include the ’83 Jazz (wouldn’t miss the playoffs for two decades), the ’86 warriors, who were good but not great against juggernauts, and also includes teams like the 2007 Atlanta Hawks, the 1989 Suns, the 2011 Clippers and if you squint a little, you can see comps to both the 2005 Clippers (woof!) and the 2013 Warriors (woo!).
All of this is just based on numbers. I didn’t dig into injuries, trades, star players and so forth — but I think there’s some really solid reason to believe that we’re going places. Maybe not better than the second round or a token WCF (wouldn’t that be nice!?) — but places.
Data can be found at this link.
Good stuff, thanks.
IMO, with a bit more detail this should be a great article in itself.
Too bad if it will be dying on the vine of a comment in an “old” article.
Awesome stuff! Could you also link to last year’s writeup and sheet on the coaches?
I agree with Rik below! Nice work, thanks for sharing!
The health piece isn’t entirely luck. Durability is a player profile element, just like vertical leap, or size. The Kings have assembled a durable bunch.
The most critical player to keep healthy is Domas. He’s a big strong guy that isn’t particularly explosive, which bodes we’ll for his health. That being said, he takes a beating.
I’m all in on this season and can’t wait!
Badge Legend