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30Q: Can the Kings overcome the Warriors playoff defense blueprint?

The Warriors schemed an effective defense against the Kings in the playoffs. Can the Kings handle it if other teams follow the same strategy?
By | 20 Comments | Sep 12, 2023

Apr 28, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis (10) holds onto the ball next to Golden State Warriors forward Kevon Looney (5) in the first quarter during game six of the 2023 NBA playoffs at the Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors executed an effective defensive scheme against the Sacramento Kings in the first round of the playoffs, neutralizing the effectiveness of Domantas Sabonis and Sacramento’s Dribble Handoff offense. The Warriors played Kevon Looney and Draymond Green deep off Sabonis, protecting the paint and daring Domas to shoot 15+ footers. Given how effective the scheme was in the playoffs, it’s worth wondering if more teams will attempt the same strategy against the Kings this season, and how Sacramento will respond if opponents do.

I do believe a few teams will attempt a similar strategy, especially early in the season with memories of the playoffs fresh in everyone’s minds. But over the course of the season most teams aren’t going to make dramatic game-to-game adjustments to their defense based on upcoming opponents. There simply isn’t enough time between games to prepare and practice the rotations required for changing your whole defense on a game to game basis.

The bigger concern will be opponents deploying the Golden State strategy in playoff matchups. This isn’t to put the cart before the horse and assume another playoff appearance. I think the Kings are likely to make the playoffs again but the West is going to be brutal and you never know how the season will shake out. But if the Kings do make the playoffs again, I won’t be surprised to see a similar scheme in the first round.

But there are a number of reasons why I don’t think Kings fans should worry about it too much. First off, that scheme worked because of Kevon Looney and Draymond Green. Those two provide very different looks, but both gave Sabonis trouble in different ways. Looney in particular still feels underrated by fans in general. He’s one of the few bigs in the league who can truly go toe-to-toe with Sabonis in the rebounding department. It’s also worth remembering that despite how effective that defense was, the Kings were a Harrison Barnes miss away from being up 3-1 in that series.

And Barnes’ miss wasn’t the only one. The Kings as a whole hit a bad shooting slump in that series. Now, some of that can be attributed to the defense disrupting the normal offensive flow of the Kings and altering the types of shots guys were getting, but Sacramento just didn’t shoot well overall in that series even when guys were getting open looks.

While there are all these reasons I believe the Kings can overcome the Warriors defensive blueprint, there’s also one major change that could be a difference-maker, and that would be if Sabonis can get comfortable hitting that 15-footer. Sabonis discussed that being a priority for offseason:

“Obviously, my shooting, (to) have confidence in shooting that shot,” Sabonis said. “If they respected my shot more, we probably would have been going through what we did all season. Instead of the big playing back off me, we’re playing like I was during the regular season, so that would have helped us a lot.”

One rough series does not define Sabonis or the Kings, but the question will remain until a team tries the strategy again and the Kings prove they can overcome it.

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RikSmits
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September 12, 2023 11:12 am

This season the coaches have to come up with alternatives/counters to DHO’s. And Sabonis needs to be more illing to take the mid range shot, IMO.

But this is the main reason for focusing on D. In the play-offs every point counts, and when your offense is stalling, you have to be able to lean on your D.

andy_sims
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September 12, 2023 11:14 am

Back in the day, Brad Miller must have shot 65-70% from the elbow, and it just opened things up so nicely. Knowing Sabonis, I’d say there’s a good chance that he’ll be more proficient from mid-distance once the season starts.

And definite agreement, the Warriors personnel is uniquely equipped to make Sabonis do things that he may not want to do. Most teams can’t throw that him, but if he’s able to make that shot a reliable part of his game, it just makes the offense more dangerous, regardless of opponent.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
September 12, 2023 2:43 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

Yup, a lot of it comes down to matchups. The Warriors had two bigs who are long and don’t leave their feet to give Sabonis fits. One thing I also feel that gets overlooked was the Warriors added a fresh Wiggins to their playoff roster. He hadn’t played in 2 months before game 1. He’s no slouch on defense since arriving in the Bay. He contributed to Barnes and Murray’s shooting struggles

AmateurNerd
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September 12, 2023 11:58 am

Looney was effective in that series because Sabonis kept driving straight into him and let him use his size to push Sabonis around under the basket… and Sabonis continually did that because he couldn’t shoot. It all comes back to the shot. If Sabonis hits that shot semi-consistently, the Kings win that series going away.

PretendGhost
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September 12, 2023 12:28 pm
Reply to  AmateurNerd

I’d much rather Sabonis work on perfecting a 12-15 footer than adding a 3. Centers, unless naturally inclined to be a shooter, only need to stretch the floor a moderate amount to make a major difference

Sacto_J
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September 12, 2023 1:37 pm
Reply to  PretendGhost

I don’t see anyone suggesting he needs to develop a 3 unless I’m missing something. It’s absolutely that mid-range shot that’s missing. The thing that’s weird to me about it, too, is that he plays so well out of the high post I can’t understand how that’s such a strength if he’s so one dimensional in it. Makes sense it would get exposed by a veteran team with a couple of good defenders. They didn’t even have to be great on that end of the floor, just decent, especially when they were a net + on the boards.
And say what you want about Sabonis not being able to hit that shot, the rest of the team absolutely failed as well; from the coaching staff not game planning better, to the shooters not hitting shots, to the defenders not closing out on rebounds. The team was exposed. Growing Pains.

AmateurNerd
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September 13, 2023 12:16 pm
Reply to  Sacto_J

The good news is the team has added (Vezenkov), retained (Barnes), and empowered (Murray) high-IQ players who should be able to produce in an adjusted system. Monte likes ’em humble and smart, and this can only work to the Kings’ advantage when they are no longer catching teams by surprise.

Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
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September 12, 2023 12:08 pm

BuT SaBonIS uSEs thE baLL lIKE a weApON

aplumley
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September 12, 2023 1:20 pm

What was confusing is that Sabonis can hit that shot. He just wouldn’t take it for some reason. I’m not too worried about it though. There’s every reason to believe the Kings can be better this year.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
September 12, 2023 2:31 pm
Reply to  aplumley

He actually averaged 14 FGA per game in the playoffs, while he averaged 12 FGA per game in the regular season. He shot 61% during the regular season, but shot only 49.5% during the playoffs.

He shot more but made less. Greg is right, If Sabonis just improves that mid-range game, it’s a different series.

AmateurNerd
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September 13, 2023 12:17 pm
Reply to  aplumley

I’m wondering if his broken hand had something to do with it. It sure seems like the kind of shot he could make. I didn’t see him take it much in the regular season either, though.

ArcoThunder
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September 12, 2023 2:02 pm

I still don’t get why he wasn’t shooting that shot. I don’t get why the coaching staff didn’t make it priority #1 going into game 5, 6 and 7. I’m my opinion they should have been running plays with the specific intention of having Ox take that shot. My bet is if he had he would have been converting at at least a 50% clip. What’s a good % for that spot on the floor? It’s not a hard shot. All that has to happen is he has to take it and he’ll make it at a reasonable/respectable rate. Which again goes back to my confusion as to why the coaching staff wasn’t demanding that of him. First 5 plays down the floor in game 7 should have been sabonis from the elbow/free throw line all 5 times.

so to answer the question of the article… can they? Yes, yes they can. They just have to try to do it and the results will be positive. I’m still sour on game 7 because of this odd decision to not force the issue of ox shooting the mid range AS WELL AS Mitchell not being on Steph for the entire 2nd half. Curry in the game = there’s Mitchell in the game. Curry sits = there’s Mitchell on the bench.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
September 12, 2023 2:36 pm
Reply to  ArcoThunder

I think it wasn’t the game plan by the Kings all season long. The offense was designed around him as the primary facilitator to get everyone else open shots. The Warriors just attacked that trend. The gave Sabonis the shot and denied him the ability to pass. It took him out of his rhythm and he was uncomfortable with it. It shows in his uptick in shots but drop in FG%.

Peplowski
September 12, 2023 2:19 pm

31.5 points per game pre hand injury (games 1-4) and the 22 per game post hand injury for Fox. That point towards the biggest issue from that series (more than Davion not playing in game 7, any defensive scheme from the warriors, or lack of shooting aggression from Sabonis). The issue being Fox couldn’t dribble in traffic after game four.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
September 12, 2023 2:58 pm

Hey now…

Go get Cameron Payne

Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
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September 12, 2023 3:14 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

Ah I feel bad for Neemy but I’m sure he’ll get picked up somewhere.

Want2win
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September 12, 2023 5:54 pm

Time to blow it up and bring back Cousins and Bagley

murraytant
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September 13, 2023 10:53 pm

The duds jammed the DHO. Just tried to get in the middle of it and blow it up. With more physicality allowed in the playoffs they got away with it. Second, they dropped off of OX. Dared him to shoot the mid-range.
Kings did not adjust well. On the other hand, the Fox injury and the perplexing decision to leave Davion on the bench in game 7 all contributed.
At the same time, the Kings blew up the duds sideline triangle action- where stephanie, klank and day-day have been so effective. The Kings just destroyed that.

Playoffs are like that- the opponent always tries to eliminate one of your strengths.
The Kings needed and need a counter to the DHO jam up. Hitting the mid range will help, so will back door cuts
This is all a process.
BTW- I got my money down in Vegas on Kings over 44.5 wins

BestHyperboleEver
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September 15, 2023 10:07 am

While the Kings absolutely should assess the series and use it to improve, it’s definitely worth remembering that they lost the series in 7 games to a team with a TON of playoff experience and two exceptional big defenders. Even with the Warriors scheming to neutralize Sabonis and the DHO, the Kings very easy could have won this series.

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