Thankfully, the Luke Walton era feels like years ago. But in reality, we’re less than one year removed from one of the least-inspiring coaching runs in recent Kings history, and that’s saying something. I’m not trying to place all the blame on Walton, but yeah, it never felt close to working.
Luke Walton only made it 17 games into the 2021-22 NBA season before getting fired after a 6-11 start. Veteran head coach Alvin Gentry took over from there, and it didn’t get much better.
One of the more memorable moments last season followed a 117-92 loss to the Lakers in early December where Gentry actually apologized to Kings fans for how poor the team had played. He called the loss embarrassing. He said the team would find players that would give us a better effort. But things did not improve from there.
Following a 127-102 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in late December. Gentry was rightfully pissed at the Kings’ effort once again, calling it “the most disappointed I’ve been 34 years in the NBA. I can honestly say that. That performance was absolutely ridiculous. We didn’t play hard. We didn’t compete.”
Gentry dropped a lot uncomfortable truths in those December press conferences. As a fan, I appreciated hearing it, but it would have been nice if consistent, good basketball followed. They improved to some small degree after the trade deadline, but the season was lost. At the end of the day, it was another wasted year for the basketball team in Sacramento where even the coaching staff had to publicly question how hard this roster was going to play every night.
The 2021-22 Sacramento Kings didn’t have enough talent to coast. The 2022-23 Sacramento Kings have improved on paper thanks to some encouraging offseason movement by Monte McNair, but they still don’t have enough talent to coast if they expect to end the playoff drought in a competitive Western Conference.
Enter Mike Brown.
I’ll admit it – Mike Brown wasn’t at the top of my list after the Kings’ head coaching candidates started leaking out. But the more I heard Mike Brown speak, the more I started to buy in. I don’t know if he’ll be the head coaching solution the Kings have been looking for since Rick Adelman was let go, but Sacramento desperately needs someone to come in here and raise the ceiling of this team.
If this sounds like I am absolving the players from the effort equation, that is not my intention. A head coach can only do so much. But Luke Walton couldn’t get the effort required out of his roster, and Alvin Gentry didn’t do it, either. Maybe Mike Brown, coupled with an improved roster, can? Maybe Mike Brown can get this team to buy into playing hard every night? Maybe Mike Brown, a defensive minded head coach, can get this team to defend hard every night?
I don’t have an answer to this one. It’s a lot of maybe’s because getting a Kings team to play above their talent level is something no head coach has been able to do since Dave Joerger for half a season in 2018-19.
Mike Brown said a lot of good, encouraging things in his introductory press conference back in June. I’ll throw the link in below for anyone else who wants to revisit it. I’m optimistic that he can be the right head coach for this team, but I’m going to need to see some results before I truly start believing.
Mike Brown won’t improve the effort of this team. But, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis will. They set the tone. If Fox, in particular, plays consistently and harder than what many are accustomed to.
My hunch is Brown has the respect of the locker room now, but will he 2 months in? I suspect so. He’s got a long term deal, he’s not going anywhere for at least 2 years, he’s not any worse to deal with than Luke Walton was, and so forth.
Plus there’s more talent on this team. I think Brown can do more with this group than what Walton or even Joerger could do. As always, we won’t know until we know, but I have a hunch the Kings will be better this year in part because Brown knows the group he has and far more importantly, the talent is improved.
Greg was hosting the StR podcast when Dave Joerger was hired. I definitely cannot remember exactly what he and his guest said, but what Greg uttered boiled down to I’m not going to get overly excited about another new coach for the Kings. I was in fact excited for Joerger as he was a winning coach, just having left the winning Grizzlies. But Greg’s statement made sense. And it rings even more true today. Brown has to prove it with the most important stat – win percentage. I don’t really care what he has to say to be frank. Say it to the players and assistant coaches if that will inspire them. Just win.
I’m glad Brown was the defensive coordinator (also associate HC) of the Warriors who have had a great defense. Because that is the number one thing I hope he can bring to the Kings. Of the three coach finalists, I supported Steve Clifford because I believed he was most likely to make the Kings a middle of the pack defense through smart schemes and by engendering intense effort from the players. I hope Brown can get the Kings to 15th, but if not I hope they can be at the bottom of the middle third (18th, 19th, 20th, etc.).
Brown has his work cut out for him with this roster which does not include Draymond Green, one of the smartest defenders ever and one of the strongest players pound for pound, Thompson before his injury, Igoudala in his prime, and even Steph who is not a great individual defender and the one that teams target in switches but still very astute at team defense. Instead, we have Davion Mitchell … and that’s about it.
For stats on that, here is the defensive rating on/off differential for the Kings players from last season, including new Kings players. To be clear what this is: you take the defensive rating of the team while he is on the court and compare it to the defensive rating of the team while he is off the court. Obviously, a higher positive number is worse.
Barnes: +8.5
Bazemore: -4.2
Davis: -6.4
Fox: +5.5
Huerter: +0.1
Holmes: -1.1
Len: -3.1
Lyles: -0.3
Metu: -3.4
Mitchell: -4.6
Monk: +3.1
Sabonis: -0.5
Obviously, def. rtg on/off will be in some part determined by who is subbing in for you. Here is each of these players defensive RAPTOR, an all in one metric that should adjust for the team you are on, from 538. Negative is worse.
Barnes: -1.7
Bazemore: +3.7
Davis: +0.3
Fox: -2.6
Huerter: -0.9
Holmes: -1.2
Len: -1.3
Lyles: -1.5
Metu: +0.1
Mitchell: +0.4
Monk: -1.2
Sabonis: +2.3
It’s more clear from RAPTOR that the situation, at least in the past, was grim. Hopefully Brown can both motivate his players and get them to work together on defense. Effort is, yes, a huge part of defense but there is much more to team defense. In the modern NBA you have to know when to go into drop with the guard fighting over the screen, when to ice, when to weak, and when to hedge some against a strong shooter who is not a great distributor. The other three defenders have to be ready to tag the roller, trap the box, sink, and fill. I hope Brown can make this group into only slightly below average on defense.
So we start Davis, bazmore, metu, Len and Holmes…
I meant Mitchell, metu and Len along with Baze and Davis
Wow, I had already forgotten Baze was signed by the Kings.
I gave this a “thumbs up,” largely because of the last paragraph. But the truth is that I didn’t understand most of the terms used for different defensive maneuvers (surely I am not the only one). It would be nice if some day TKH might devote a column to explaining these different defensive responses.
It would be awesome to see a column on that topic.
Until then, all of those and more are covered here at The Basketball Dictionary by Dylan Murphy. It will take some time to read through them as Murphy can get a little wordy in my opinion. That’s also because, while the basic concepts are very simple, there is a lot that can be delved into.
This is also quite good for identifying pick and roll defenses from The Basketball Action Dictionary (named in honor of TBD) by Bowser.
So if you would like to know, there ya go.
Thanks!
On one hand I’m fairly surprised by Barnes subpar defensive ratings. On the other, he’s tasked with guarding some of the most skilled players in the league. If he were traded my main concern, depending on the return of course, would be that I wouldn’t expect anyone currently on the roster to do any better against the likes of LeBron, PG13, (Luka?) etc. that Barnes is typically tasked with guarding.
I think “playing hard” is an environmental or cultural thing. It requires a setting of expectations and goals, someone who has the authority to hold people accountable, a coaching staff which is able to reinforce the expectations, and a group of players that are willing to accept direction, criticism, and “buy in”.
Based on what we have seen during this offseason, it appears all of these elements are present for the start of training camp.
I believe the team will start the season playing hard. If the team starts winning, the effort level has a chance to set in and be part of the teams foundational culture. If the losing continues, then the team will revert back to the status quo.
Absolutely not. No coach can reliably get all of his players to put out maximum effort for any particular game. There are too many variables at play when you’re talking about fifteen individuals.
And maybe it’s not about the players! What if Brown, awake all night because of travel-related diarrhea, just doesn’t have the strength to motivate the players to rise to that level?
You can’t overlook the fact that shit happens.
Wow Andy, that poop joke took a lot of effort. You shouldn’t strain so hard to make it happen. It should just flow naturally.
Don’t be corny.
Edit.
So, how many more games can Mike Brown win than A. Gentry win if they got the same current roster ?
Gentry is a good coach…(maybe a Tier 2 coach), but failed to bring any success / competitiveness to the team….
So, right now, assuming Brown is a Tier 1 coach, how many more win game can he get over Gentry…
“Work hard. Play hard. Drink Chard.” – Martha Stewart
I don’t care if they play hard. I just care if they win.
(reversed-Jordi Fernández)
The departure of Buddy Hield will certainly continue to help.
multiple second jumps in that gif!
Maybe? I mean, no one played more than Hield. The man had some obvious flaws, but suiting up every night was not one of them.
Playing every night and playing hard every night, felt very different to me with Buddy. He was often lost on defense, making the wrong play on offense, etc.. Addition by subtraction.
I think that Hield played hard, relative to the rest of the team. I think that he had glaring stretches of not playing smart, but I rarely questioned his effort (again, relative to the rest of the team).
With the exception of Davion Mitchell, no one on last year’s team was worth a squirt on defense. Not Hield, not Hali, not Fox, not Barnes. So you’re right in what you say about Hield on the defensive end. Where we diverge is that I don’t see his departure as any type of panacea, given that guys like Fox and Barnes are still here. If they don’t change, the absence of Hield will make no difference whatsoever.
You might be onto something that the real bonus of not having Hield is more on the offensive end than the defensive end. No matter where you look last season, this team, minus Davion as you point out, was horrible on defense.
Can that change? Sure. Will it? We’ll find out.
Offense has its variables, Defense is constant.
What do you mean by that, Jack? I’m reading The Smart Take From The Strong by Pete Carril right now, and he says the same thing. “Defense is not a variable. It’s a constant.” He says you can play well and hard on defense every time all the time. Then he writes, “Shooting is a variable; 50% of the time you miss.”
Well, to that I’d say when you’re practicing great defense on the perimeter, you’re only “successful” in guarding it 50%-60% of the time. There is such a thing as defensive field goal percentage.
Also, players can practice consistently great offense, but yeah the shots won’t go in a lot of the time in the aggregate. But the application can be very, very sound.
OK. This is going to take a little time and it is a little different from the norm so here goes. I’ve coached a lot of players most who don’t really want to play defense for one reason or another. It takes a whole game to for it to work. That is one of the constants. I will take somewhere in the game to play 4 or 5 minutes of defense that could possibly make a difference in the outcome of the game.Most teams get comfortable during the game and this might make the difference. I am going to take five Kings(they have to make the team) and put them in a place to disrupt that comfort. I picked Mitchell, Ellis, Okpala, Murray and Holmes. I like this lineup for a lot of reasons but one is that they all play pretty good defense and it gives Ellis and Okpala a chance to help the Kings win a ballgame.
If the other team has one great player you run a box and 1. If they have two great players you run a trtiangle and 2. If you really want disrupt whole game you run a full court or a 1-2-1-1 zone defense. There are others but for sake of too much explanation I choose these four. You need to get these 5 players to buy in what we are trying to do. You also need an assistant coach to work extensively with these 5 players. I choose Doug Christie. You need to work on these defenses or which ones you choose everyday to make it constant. If this happens you could change the outcome of a lot of games. GO KINGS!
PS This would just be a start.
PS This is just one example their are others.
Fox absolutely must step up this season, and not just in the last 20 games when the season is over. I’m still not convinced he has it in him to lead a team through hard work and effort. As for Barnes last season on the defense, I got nothing to explain that. Hopefully he finds it again this year.
I feel like I am hoping, as opposed to expecting, players to be different this upcoming season…which worries me.
I love Barnes but lets face it. 30, a step slower and one more year on his contract makes me think we might think about trading him.
Is Barnes really a step slower? I don’t think I’ve seen that. He is what he’s been for the past few years and hasn’t regressed in my eyes.
And since when is 30 old in the NBA? Lebron and CP3 are 37, Curry is 34, DeRozan and Durant are 33, and Butler, PG13, Lillard, and Klay, 32.
Barnes is the oldest guy in the core rotation at age 30. I’d say that’s pretty good. Just for reference, Vlade joined the Kings in 98′ at age 30.
I concede.
Hahaha! don’t give up that easily Jack! I think you have a point in that Barnes is likely not part of the future core of what looks to be Fox, Sabonis, Murray, and Mitchell, but that doesn’t mean is is a key cog to this year’s team.
From a strictly management position, the Kings are gonna have to do something with Barnes this season. I hope they don’t let him walk. Either extend him on the cheap or trade him for maximum return.
I fear they are gonna ride him Rudy Gay style past the deadline hoping for that 9th spot in the play-in. That would be a massive mistake.
Alright I am still in it. I have looked at a lot of trade ideas and received a lot of comments. That’s what I wanted. I still think we can get value for Barnes. Two of my favorites still on the books are Barnes for Duncan Robinson and Max Strus. I have read that Miami would really like Barnes as their starting PF. Robinson still has something in his tank and Max Strus could be our starting SF. He doesn’t have yo score 20 a game as he would be our 5th option.
The other trade I like is Barnes plus a first for Luke Kennard and Terrance Mann. Kennard is one of the best three point shooters in the NBA and an underrated play maker. Mann would start at SF and be in the same mode as Strus.
Are we really making a comparison? Barnes to a bunch of All Time greats.
No, I’m just saying that 30 isn’t old by NBA standards.
Say it more slowly, with shorter words.
It’s on the older side. The side where you should be expecting decline. How fast that decline comes is generally up for debate. But a guy like Barnes doesn’t have nearly as much room for decline as the guys you listed above.
It’s also worth pointing out that Klay hasn’t put up an especially productive season (for one reason or another) since his late-20s.
yeah, id actually say 30 is the prime of the prime. still super athletic but also super wise in the game of basketball. perfect combo
Eh, prime basketball player age is still around 27-28. And it’s generally downhill from there. Obviously, there are outliers. But you don’t really want to build your team on the hope of outliers. Even with the big old head names listed above, the average All-Star is still around 26 while the average MVP is about 28. All-NBA players average a bit under 28 as well. I think improved training methods may have generally slowed the rate of decline, but the peak is still in the mid-to-late 20s.
Yeah that’s all accurate. I will add that superstars often perform at a very high level for several years past their prime age.
Damian Jones was pretty effective on that end if memory serves.*
*It most likely doesn’t.
My heart wants to say yes, but my brain reminds it that we’ve been here before many, many times.
I’m still wishing Coach Brown the best and am rooting for him and the team, but we shall see.
I think teams without superstars point fingers at their coach and GM.
So here we are.
Having superstars may not make eliminate that finger pointing…
https://twitter.com/JamesSeltzer/status/1524926749184004096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1524926749184004096%7Ctwgr%5E8fa1eddd9e8e020aaaf053ee8d9b3a4bf64a8380%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thecoldwire.com%2F76ers-fans-have-a-doc-rivers-replacement-in-mind%2F
At least in that situation there is a legitimate debate about who the problem is. Kangz cannot argue either way really.
Roster sucks…..coach sucks….is it different this year?
And then there’s KD’s recent demand to fire Steve Nash and Sean Marks.
KD might be a little bit of a problem?
It is fun to watch that circus from afar.
Truth.
I would tend to agree that it’s hard for any coach to make the team play harder. But I do believe that a good defensive coach designs strategies that players buy into. I honestly don’t believe that most players at Fox’s level are lazy. But if they don’t feel like the team has a solid defensive strategy they may not stick to it. That is a difference a coach like Brown could make.
a good coach can make a difference- the right scheme puts the players in positions to excel and then they respond to that. Some yelling and benching can help but, it is, in the final analysis up to the players
Good defensive teams work well together, rely on each other and play hard not just for themselves but for the others. A good coach can help inspire that.
He can help. He does have a presence; he has experience and a reputation. He has to not put up with any b.s, particularly from the “stars”. He has to set standards and stick with them – no favorites. He was not my first choice (who cares about that?) but he is older and that commands respect.
That said, agree with KG21 that the tone has to be set by Fox and Sabonis. The value here is that there are two of them- each watching the other for tone hints. In the past, there may have been only one or the tone setter was not one of the better players.
They have to play at top level and call out all the others who do not. Like Buddy- “Quit dribbling! (ooops, that’s Halis’s role now)
It is a long tough season, one with all sorts of ups/downs. travel. personal stuff etc. Best teams police themselves and not just yell but encourage and listen.
Not sure if any of the recent coaches commanded much respect.
I like that the practice squad guys are hard working overachievers. I think he’s thinking that toughness might be contagious. Guys that didn’t back down, even when overmatched.
I’m hoping one of the camp invite guys beats out a player we assume is already on the team. I’d just love it if someone like Moneke or Merrill shocks everyone and bumps out a guy like Bazemore or Terrance Davis. The team will be better for it to have a bunch of guys hungry for playing time.
Can Mike Brown get the Kings to play hard every night?
If he can’t – then GM McNair hired the wrong coach, because they aren’t going to win. And if they don’t win, then GM McNair will be out of a job at season’s end. If Sacramento can show improvement in winning and effort- it will/should be a 3 yr extension at season’s end for Monte.
What makes Greg Popovich, Eric Spoelstra, Mike Budenholzer, Steve Kerr and Nick Nurse – five guys I’d put in at least the Top 10 – so good? Would their keen strategies and ingenious schemes make Sac a Top Ten Team? Nah.
Getting these talented pros to “buy in” combined with sound basketball minds separates the Champs (those 5) from the Chumps.
Based on what we have seen from The Mike Brown Experience thus far – I can see that next step happening. Might be just another Kings Fan with mirage colored glasses on – again – but I like what I see so far. If nothing else – Coach Brown and his staff have “bought in” and that is a very strong first step to set the tone.
Not so sure. Defensive mentality on a nightly basis? I think we will see it on occasion. I am not particularly thrilled with the hire. But, I hope to be proved wrong. The fact is Brown has not been a head coach for many years. In that time period, he was not really mentioned to often, for HC positions. We’ll see.
The roster looks competitive for the first time in years. The team needs to get off to a decent start. The schedule is not favorable to begin the season.
If they can stay close to .500 in the first 20, they will have a shot at the playin for sure. The first 20
are brutal.
6-14 or 7-13 will put them in a hole early. It will be hard to climb out. If the rest of the West stays healthy.
“Luke Walton couldn’t get the effort required out of his roster” Checks tape. Sure enough
A true savant when it comes to game review, I always imagined him going forward and backwards for days trying to find the key moment that the game was lost.
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