As the calendar turns to September, it’s time again for our 30Q Series! Each day we’ll discuss a question about the upcoming season for the Sacramento Kings.
If the 2022-23 season was a party, the 2023-24 season could rightfully be described as the hangover. After finally reaching the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, the Kings failed to make it again by the slimmest of margins. It was hard not to feel like this was self-inflicted. The Kings largely chose to “run it back”, making minimal changes in the offseason while the rest of the Western Conference got better and made big moves. The Kings also lost countless games where it didn’t seem like they took their opponent seriously, gave up big leads in what should have been surefire wins, or couldn’t make a damn free throw in crunch time. The historic offense that surprised so many the year before wasn’t so novel, and opponents began to figure the Kings out. In the end, the Kings had nobody to blame but themselves for once again being on the outside looking in.
This season will be a real test for this core to see if they can take the next step from merely good to great. The Kings did not stand pat this summer, finally making a big move by trading for DeMar DeRozan and moving off of Harrison Barnes. They also surprisingly managed to hang onto Malik Monk by re-signing him to a 4 year, $78 million deal before free agency truly opened up. Davion Mitchell and Sasha Vezenkov were sent to Toronto in what amounted to a salary dump, and the Kings drafted rookie Devin Carter (who will likely be out for at least the first part of the season due to shoulder surgery) and brought in Jordan McLaughlin and Orlando Robinson for depth.
DeRozan’s addition is by far the biggest move, and one that helps the Kings enough now but still keeps the powder relatively dry if a bigger move needs to be made later. Critics of the DeRozan signing point to the fact that he doesn’t help Sacramento’s shooting or defense, or that he takes away touches from Keegan Murray, all fair points. But DeRozan brings many things the Kings need; He’s another shot creator to turn to when the offense bogs down, someone who can get to the line and more importantly make his free throws. He’s another playmaker, both for himself and others. DeRozan adds another dimension to the Kings offense and hopefully a steadying presence to a team that be erratic at times. His experience should hopefully also be instrumental to young players like Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis, not to mention De’Aaron Fox himself.
The Kings should also benefit from some internal growth. Keegan Murray was a bit more inconsistent last season, but he was also asked to do much more. After a rookie season in which he was mostly just a spot-up shooter, Murray was tasked with becoming one of the team’s go-to defenders while also expanding his offensive game. His defense took a huge leap as he was often tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player each night. His three point efficiency dipped, but his effectiveness elsewhere increased as he got to the midrange more. Year 3 tends to be the year in which young players take a leap, and if Murray can bring it all together effectively and, more importantly, consistently, he can be truly special.
The Kings were bit by the injury bug far more last year as well, as both Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk went down with season ending injuries in the second half of the season. Those injuries hurt the Kings’ chances during the stretch run but did have one bonus effect: the emergence of Keon Ellis. Ellis, the second year undrafted player on a two-way contract, became one of the most important players for the Kings in the second half of the season, earning himself an NBA contract and a possible starting spot going forward. Ellis’ lockdown defense and consistent perimeter shooting made him invaluable at times. He had a bit of a national coming out party in Sacramento’s play-in game against the Golden State Warriors, in which he scored 15 points to go along with 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and 3 blocks. In the last 15 games of the season after Ellis became the full time starter at Shooting Guard, the Kings were 6th in the league in Defensive Rating.
The Western Conference is a grind, and will probably be even better overall this season. The only team that truly seems like it might drop off are the LA Clippers, who lost Paul George in Free Agency. Portland might be the only team in the West truly “tanking” this season as young teams like Houston and San Antonio look to make a leap. The Grizzlies should be back healthy. Every night in the West is going to be a fight, and as we saw last season, every game truly matters.
Hopefully the Kings have taken the lessons of last season to heart. There’s only one way to make a name for yourself and that’s to win, win, and win some more. Tired of the national disrespect? Then go win and prove them wrong. Tired of not being voted for All-Star teams or for end of season rewards? Fine, go win and have the last laugh. Winning is the only way to change the narrative and prove that these Kings aren’t just a feel good story for a long-suffering fanbase, but a team that has a chance to go out and do something truly special.
I’m gonna say that a lot of this year’s hope is going to come down to Keon Ellis and if he the real deal to share the backcourt with Fox. We know what Sabonis is going to give us, we know what Fox is going to give us, we know what Monk is going to give us, and we very likely know what DeRozan is going to give us. The Kings’ big 4 are proven and consistent. Ellis, however is the linchpin at the defensive POA. I’m even going to say his production and role may be more important than Keegan’s in terms of the win/loss column.
It’s crazy to think the the likely 5 option on offense may be the key to the Kings finding a defensive identity that takes them to another level. For anyone wondering how that’s possible, I point you to Doug Christie’s role on the glory era Kings.
Ellis is certainly the X factor to the season.
If he can be a lockdown defender and hit his spot up 3’s, this team level’s up.
I might be in the minority here but I think the year is going to come down to how Fox adjusts to the addition of another high usage backcourt player in DDR, and one that is mainly a threat in the midrange.
Will Fox shoot even more threes, and if so, at what clip? Somehow, some star players had problems adjusting their game to playing alongside DDR. And the Fox/Monk pairing wasn’t great either, IIRC.
Can Brown tweak the offense to create good looks for both DDR and Fox, without sacrificing too much ball movement for ISO ball?
Will the paint get too congested for Domas, DDR and Fox if the supporting players can’t make sagging defenses pay?
Fox is going to have to play team basketball and give Derozan the ball as well as space on the floor to work. Derozan and Sabonis is easy.
Derozan and Fox is not so easy. At least Fox is not a star player to the level that has not worked with Derozan before.
How many times last season did we watch the game slow down in the 4th quarter and Fox was triple-teamed because he was the only self-creator on the floor in the half court? How many times were we begging the Kings to stop chucking threes when they weren’t falling and to attack the rim/midrange? How many times did we watch them blow leads due to poor free throw shooting? Enter DeMar DeRozan.
This one man solves nearly all of the Kings biggest offensive flaws. He adds a totally new component to the offense with his half court/midrange game, his ability to consistently take and make free throws, and his secondary playmaking ability. You will not be able to guard Fox, D-Roz AND Sabonis at the same time. And if you try, you will be giving Keon/Huerter/Keegan/Trey nonstop open looks from deep.
This could very well be the best offensive team in the league.This rotation is deep, talented, and versatile. You can create a countless number of lineups out of Fox, Monk, DC, Keon, KH, D-Roz, Keegan, Trey, and Domas and all of them are LETHAL offensively.
If this team can be Top 15 in defense, which they demonstrated last season with Keon that they can be, they will demolish teams. And that’s before Devin Carter – an absolute HOUND on defense – returns. And who’s to say we don’t end up with a guy like DFS by midseason?
Keon, Carter, and DeMar are 3 new staples to the rotation that we didn’t have at the beginning of last season. That puts them light-years ahead of the team that fell short in the play-in. And who’s gonna stop them? GS, LAC, and NOP all took a step back this offseason. Memphis has no depth (and just lost GG Jackson) and are relying on a rookie center. The Fakers are another year older and can’t keep up. The Suns struggled against us all last year and that was one DeMar DeRozan ago. Houston and SA are talented but too young.
As currently constructed, the Kings can hang with anyone in the West. This team shouldn’t be afraid of anyone on any given night. Barring multiple major injuries, I see no way this team slips below number 5. Hell, I could see them in the Top 3. And there’s still room to grow. What if Keegan takes a third-year leap? What if Huerter bounces back? What if Keon adds more to his game? What if Devin Carter is better than advertised? What if we make ANOTHER move?
These guys are killers. Maybe the world doesn’t know it yet, but we do. Believe the hype.
Agreed. This team should consider themselves more than capable of reaching the WCF. Talent wise, just not a big difference between the Kings and the other top teams in the West.
Simply put, Ellis and KM improve and Fox and DDR closeout games and Domas does Domas things.
I am cautiously buying into the hype. Should be a fun season. Hopefully no injuries to our already very thin front court.
Not specifically directed at you, but it’s fascinating to watch how the narrative after the season was “we need more length and athleticism, and preferably a PF who can protect the rim and stretch the floor” and how fast it completely changed to “we need a 35 year old 6″5 wing who excells in the midrange and a 6″3 G in the draft“.
I can understand and to a certain point subscribe to your description of the benefits of adding DDR to the mix, and I really, really like DDR as a player. Also, I can see and hope that Devin Carter was the BPA, slipping due to his injury. And if I really try, I can also convince myself that the call for length and athleticism was too much influenced by NO’s mastery of the Kings.
But I’ve been a Kangz fan too long too dismiss my worries. And I can already imagine our discourse here after a team like the Pels (or Rockets or Spurs) eliminates us and we go like “Yeah, this was too be expected. Monte never addressed our real needs in the off-seaon.”
I fervently hope that I am wrong.
Good marketing from the Kings office and fan blind loyalty has always prevailed. Add a power forward and watch this team thrive. Just my opinion.
Somehow Keon is now the linchpin as well?
I think the pro-DeRozan pivot is based on the most important thing in basketball: having as many good players as possible. DeRozan was the best player available to the Kings, and while his fit doesn’t address every need, it reduces the Kings margin of error for winning games.
The team is likely still a piece or two away on paper, but it’s objectively more talented than it was 6 months ago, while still mainting flexibility for further improvement.
An interesting layer to this upgrade is that you essentially traded one of the most consistent (in terms of not missing games) players in the NBA, Harrison Barnes for one of the most consistent (in terms of not missing games) players in the NBA in DeRozan. That’s a pretty big element in terms of what you lost and gained in your starting lineup. this would not have been the case with Brandon Ingram for example.
Obviously the talent level and consistent scoring you returned in the “DeRozan for Barnes swap” is MASSIVE.
I believe that’s the main reason why Kings fans are so optimistic for the upcoming season. The narrative of “if Barnes has a good game the Kings win” was very very real. We all know that as did the kings media. How many times was Barnes having a good game one of the “keys to the game” for Katy Christiansen before tip off? This reality of Barnes is the reason why Kings fans were so frustrated with him and why there was a steady flow of thousands of trade proposals over the years that would move Barnes for an even slight upgrade either defensively, offensively or both.
i Believe the defensive prowess of Barnes to DeRozan is also a wash as is the consistency of availability night in and night out. As I recall, 2 years ago Barnes was statistically one of the worst defenders in the NBA. I think Barnes has a better reputation around the league as a solid defender where DeRozan does not but I think most Kings fans would agree that that reputation on defense was far from reality. That reputation was established in years 1-3 of Barnes in golden state. On the Kings, especially the last few years it was definitely not the case.
Surely we will blame the lack of addressing the needs we all see as the reason they weren’t successful. If they aren’t. 100% that will be the case.
however, I find it a little funny that for all or most of us that added length comes in the form of one player that we hope they add before the season or before the all star break. 1 guy like cam Johnson. Yes it is a good fit and addresses the “needs” but it’s just one guy and 4 inches.
the strengths they gained by loosing slow Sasha, miniature Mitchell, disappointing Duarte, killing me kessler, Jalopy Javale, and Hella inconsistent Harrison to be replaced with
Demar DeRozan, more minutes for Keegan, more minutes for Lyle’s, more minutes for monk, more minutes for our defensive wizard Keon Ellis, more minutes for the very consistent Alex Len and spot minutes for a well rounded backup PG in McLaughlin and the team, more importantly the rotation or extended core of the guys who will be getting all the minutes and I see a pretty massive improvement.
I think the real X factor is what version of Kevin Huerter do we get this season?
The Kings were Top 6 in defense with Keon in the lineup. I understand being cautiously optimistic about such a small sample size, but that’s not something to overlook. I’d also say that Carter and DDR is defensively an upgrade over HB and Duarte (while being miles ahead offensively).
The roster is simply better, and I’d argue much better, even if we’re still searching for that defensive minded forward. And the Kings still have the assets to go get that forward during the season. If Carter makes Huerter or Keon look replaceable, then Keon+1sts could even get a guy like Tari Eason who’d be picture perfect.
But with how good I expect this team to be offensively, my argument is that even being average on defense makes the Kings a scary team. And they could be Top 10 in both measures!
The Kings were top six in defense for how many games?
I do not believe it was even a week long period of time.
A little of both? I think that they benefitted from a lot of other teams being injured and resting players two years ago and last year with the new rules around a games limit for awards eligibility, we fell back to the pack. The injuries also evened out last year and we had a couple injuries down the stretch that killed us. So I’m fascinated to see how it shakes out this year. I think there’s a chance they have a higher regular season floor and ceiling while having a hard cap on their playoff ceiling. I still think I’d be surprised if we make it out of the first round unless somebody like Ellis or Murray take another leap this season. But that’s totally possible!
This season should see extreme parity in the West. I just don’t see a big difference amongst the top 8 or so teams.
The two exceptions would be if the Nuggets young guys take a step forward and give that team depth like they had during their ship run. Joker is still the best player in the league.
The second exception would be if Ant makes the leap and becomes a top 3 player as we know he will eventually be. Minny at that point may be unbeatable.
A recent history well summarized Akis.
Disappointing, no doubt, but not devastatingly so, IMO. Sacramento is a competitive team. But the Western Conf is tuff stuff, and just hanging around the 5-10 spot leaves little room for misstep as we saw as April 2024 rushed to a close.
Last season was tight 1-3 (OKC(57), DEN (56) MIN (56), and 4-7 (LAC (51), DAL (50), PHX (49), NOP (49)) and then 8-10 (LAL (47), SAC (46), GSW (46). And even then, 5 games separated 4 from 10. No breathing room.
We most curse the lazy losses to DET, CHA, WAS, CHI (DeRozan) and followed by the chances to redeem themselves the two weeks of the season – DAL, DAL, (that opportunity in BOS), NOP, PHX – a satisfying win against GSW – and another defeat by Nawlins.
Harrison Barnes will be missed, and his highlight games especially, but remember he went from Game 1 (33 pt) to Game 42 (ATL 32 pts) with whisper games in between that time. He was there but only as an afterthought. He’s not to blame for their mediocre 1st half of the season, but he was not performing at the level expected from the previous season and it why he was traded away, IMO. I am a HB40 fan, but his game will be better suited to SAS than SAC next season.
DeMar DeRozan is an upgrade IMO. And worth the 2031 unprotected pick swap.
My other expectation is an improved all around game from Keon, though I admit his VSL play left me flaccid.
Overall, to me, the Kings are the real deal – if that means they will have another competitive regular season- 41 or greater wins.. If the standard is at least 4 playoff wins to manifest that as successful, so be it: I like their chances.
In regards to your comment on Ellis…Summer league is summer league. For the big club Ellis is option 5 when on the floor. I believe this is why many Kings fans see him as the “lynch pin”. His supportive role to the other 4 guys on the court with him is very important and last year he proved he can perform that at a high level.
You, along with the entire planet view DeRozan as an upgrade over Barnes. It’s factual, not an opinion of yours specifically. 😉
side note: there’s also the very real and almost inevitability that Spock gets better this year. Soooooooooo…
yeah.
I am not flaccid
Derozan is the potential catalyst for change. It is yet to be seen if he fits with Sabonis and Fox. Even if he does fit more offense does not remedy defensive weakness as a team. Ellis is not the key to this team. Ellis and Huerter are both interchangeable with many players. Derozan is the X factor for this team.
I am not sure he pushes them beyond the first round?
A power forward will help out greatly.
Keon or Huerter for a power forward?
I second Keon or Huerter for a power forward. We are way too deep at SG. Keon, Huerter, Devin, Monk…
Keon and Huerter both have some value, we’re also not trading Devin or Monk, so package Huerter + filler + maybe a different 1st rounder for something like a John Collins.
With the current big 3 of Fox, Sabonis, and DDR, what would an addition of a guy like John Collins do other than slide Keegan to 3 and DDR to 2? I think that actually makes the defense worse. I’d prefer to keep low usage and low cost Keon at the POA next to Fox, slide DDR to 3 and Keegan to 4.
If I had my choice I would keep Keon. We have so many guards but not a lot of then can play defense. John Collins was mentioned. He would be alright but it would take more than just Huerter. Everyone knows my favorite is Tari Eason but everyone tells me that is not possible. I also like Isaiah Stewart. We might be able to get him with just Huerter and say one or two seconds. Much younger a good contract and a higher motor. If possible could we use Lyles, McDaniels and Colby Jones and a second or two to get Stewart? No on Kuzma. Doesn’t fit. Cam Jphnson would be okay but does he play defense enough? The bottom line we need a power forward to finish the roster IMO.
I like Stewart too. He shot 38.3% from three on 3.8 attempts per game. He also had a defensive FG% at the rim of 53.9%. That’s pretty good for a non-center, but he only had 193 DFGA at the rim. I think Detroit is not playing him in that role much anymore.
I’d hope the Kings could trade with Detroit to get him. Their front office doesn’t seem to know what they’re doing, so maybe it could be a favorable trade for the Kings.
And Barnes played great defense? DeMar is a huge upgrade over Barnes. On every level. Scorer, facilitator, rebounder, etc.
I keep waiting for news of a trade involving McDaniels..
Me too.
Me too
Who is going to actively seek him out?
He is salary filler.
You’re thinking too literally. A trade involving him and other players/picks for an upgrade at backup C or defensive wing.
A trade in which he is salary filler.
No duh. The important part is a trade with him in it, involving an upgrade. No one is actively seeking him out. Thanks for the obvious
McDaniels would not likely be claimed if waived . Salary filler at best .
It depends on what the real deal means to people. If it means title contender or Western Conference finals contender, I doubt it. The Kings did not improve the roster enough in the offseason. Of the players who will get minutes, they added DeRozan and Keon will get more minutes than last year. They traded away Barnes and Davion. Carter might help but not until February or March, and they may just red-shirt him. It’s not a huge overall roster upgrade, so the intangibles that were lacking last season will have to get much better for any hope at the WCF.
However, if the real deal means a solidly good team, then yeah they will be that. They won 48 games and 46 games in the last two seasons with much the same roster. Brown will coach them to something similar. I don’t think they are fool’s gold from that lens.
I just think the West is wide open. There are many good teams but arguably no S-tier teams like Boston. Maybe OKC but we haven’t seen it yet. Dallas made the NBA Finals last year as the 5-seed – why not us? I don’t see a great difference in the Kings roster compared to some of these other squads. One defensive minded forward like DFS would make me believe this is a STRONG WCF Contender.
I just looked at fanspo and a new trade came up. Huerter and a second for Wendell Carter Jr. What do you think that as a possibility? Mobil for a 6’10” 270 pound center anf powet forward. Only 25 and 2 years of a good contract.
Did comparisons with both above. Carter wins out on all the major ones. Also checked each of the two on defensive ratings. Carter at 110.6 and Steward at 114.6. Interesting stats.
Stewart has slightly more 3PA/G (3.8 to 3.1) at a slightly better percentage (38.3% to 37.4%) and defends the rim at a better rate (53.9% vs. 58.4%).
Re individual defensive rating, it’s still partially a team stat. I am terrible at basketball, but if you put me on the court with four Dream Teamers in their primes, our defensive rating would be solid. The Pistons won 14 games last season. Stewart had the fourth best Drtg of any Piston who played 24 or more games. Carter was fifth of any Magic who played 47 or more games.
Ultimately, I’d take either if it’s possible. Stewart played a lot of the 4 last year per Cleaning the Glass, so he may be more comfortable in that spot next to Sabonis.
What can we get for Ellis according to your elite sources?
I was happier living in the fantasy that you came up with all of your trades on your own. Life is always a surprise and we must deal with reality.
I don’t want to trade eon. Best defensive player we have.
Trading Keon away on his super cheap contract is an absolute waste, imo, too. We won’t get value in return.
It still baffles me that this person beats the “trade Keon” drum incessantly while simultaneously complaining that the Kings haven’t had any defensive intensity in 16 years. The minute we have a player who has a huge uplift to the team’s defense, they’re begging for the Kings to trade them away. It’s a weird obsession and makes me wonder about motivations (cough…attention seeker…cough…)
Who is begging to trade Keon away?
I asked what we might get for him in a trade.
Idk if Magic make this trade. Maybe with a first or two thrown in. WCJ is a really good player – rebounds, protects the rim and knocks down threes. He’s a lot of what the Kings are looking for, but I’m unsure if he can play next to Domas. If he can’t then you’re spending a lot of assets on a backup C that will only get 12 mpg.
One last note: I’ve seen that Bucks fans really covet Keon and have proposed swaps for Portis Jr. I wouldn’t let go of Keon right now, and by the trade deadline he could cement himself as essential. But if Devin Carter comes in and does all the things that Keon does, then I’d be open to trading a redundancy for a tough, long, defensive-minded vet like Portis.
Fox/Monk
DDR/Carter
Murray/Huerter
Portis/Lyles
Sabonis/Len
Looks like a title contender to me. But only if Carter is the real deal (which I suspect he is).
I’m not a fan of DDR as the off guard. I know it’s his traditional position, but as he has aged, gotten stronger, but slower of foot, he’s typically played one of the forward spots the past few years. I really like him at the three spot and guarding the lesser of the two offensive forwards of the opponent. Put Keegan on their scoring forward and save DDR for offense.
Agreed. I just put together one theoretical rotation, the lineup was less important.
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